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Gallup: Obama Narrowly Ahead Of Hillary Nationally
Today's Gallup tracking poll shows Barack obama with a national lead over Hillary Clinton, though it continues to be a tight race. Here are the numbers, compared to yesterday:
Obama 48% (-1)
Clinton 45% (+1)
These two have been going up and down, so don't be surprised if the lead switches quite a few more times. Just check out the graph for the last two-and-a-half weeks:
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Eric,
Explain something to me. The vast majority of states have already voted. There are only a few left.
How then are these national polls remotely relevant?
March 11, 2008 2:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
At this point, they're highly relevant.
Unless Hillary wins by upwards of 25 percentage points in every single Congressional district in every remaining race, including the one tonight, she cannot catch up in the pledged delegate race.
Assuming she's in this to win, rather than just kneecap Obama and try to run against President McCain (or his veep) in 2012, that means she's got to convince the uncommitted superdelgates to steal it for her. If she's trailing Obama in the polls of our own voters, much less the general electorate, she has no case whatsoever to make to the supers other than "join me and I will give you goodies in the highly unlikely event I'm elected."
And, btw, let me be the first to make the facile, seemingly, but not actually meaningful, point that the Gallup graph is looking like a DNA molecule.
March 11, 2008 2:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's quite simple, actually.
Let's suppose Obama were to get really bruised over the next few weeks to the point where he consistently trailed Hillary among Dem voters, and did worse against McCain. And it's not just a slight difference, subject to future changes, but a genuine sense that he's become damaged goods. Such a scenario could potentially give a lot of moral justification for a super-delegate strategy, citing a sense of buyer's remorse.
But if Obama were to consistently lead Hillary, and do better against McCain than she does, then the super-delegate strategy doesn't really have any leg to stand on.
March 11, 2008 3:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
So let me get this straight. For the two days after OH/TX when those tracking polls showed a large Clinton bounce, you guys covered them with their own entries.
Then when, starting Friday, Obama went back to being tied and took the lead all weekend, nothing. Squats. Zero.
But now that, right before Election Day, as the usual patterns, the tracking polls tightens ever so slightly again back in her favor, it is news ?
I am not paranoid about media bias but this is ridiculous.
March 11, 2008 2:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't you know?
The Super Delegates will use the latest National Poll to determine the nominee....
/snark
March 11, 2008 2:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Selective in your polling postings much, Eric?
Rasmussen has Obama 48% to Clinton 41%
Rasmussen's dailies also show a more consistent Obama recovery from Clinton's brief Ohio victory bump.
But thanks for playing. We're happy to do your work for you.
March 11, 2008 2:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
If the true value for these numbers was say Obama 46 and Clinton 44 and the poll has a random error of 4%, what numbers would you expect to see. Seriously, do you every ask yourself that question?
You keep reporting on random fluctuation, over and over and over and over and over. Fir at leat three weeks all you have shown is random arror around a mean.
In that time you could have educated yourself about polling. Really, it doesn't hurt for so-called journalist to have one f-ing clue what they are distracting the rest of us with.
March 11, 2008 2:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Selective in your polling postings much, Eric?
Rasmussen has Obama 48% to Clinton 41%
Rasmussen's dailies also show a more consistent Obama recovery from Clinton's brief Ohio victory bump.
But thanks for playing. We're happy to do your work for you.
March 11, 2008 2:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
I guess the superdelegates will rely on them---glad they did not make their choices last October---exceptsome of them did.
Rasmussen has Obama up by seven, after being down by six---just five days ago.
03/11/08
41%
48%
03/10/08
44%
46%
03/09/08
47%
45%
03/08/08
46%
45%
03/07/08
49%
43%
March 11, 2008 2:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
It mostly random error in the Rasmussen thing too. Movements away from and toward the mean by 3-4 points mean nothing. if the mean is Obama 46 44clinton, then we would expect by pure chance to see every few days leads widening, reversing, each one going up, down, etc... It's a fucntion of sampling and that's all.
Memo to everyone: It's a really close race and has been for a while.
March 11, 2008 2:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Call off the DreamTicket.
Nancy Pelosi today answering questions about about the Democratic nomination process today called speculation of an Obama/Clinton ticket "impossible", and added that "the Clinton administration has fairly ruled that out by proclaiming that Senator McCain would be a better Commander in Chief than Obama."
That's a pretty clear rebuke from the Speaker of the House of the Clinton's latest talking points, don't you think?
March 11, 2008 2:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
I love pelosi. Once again, she hit the ball out of the park. I wish the supers would shut the clintons down. I love the fact that she called clinton, the clinton administration. Tacit reminder of a third term for the clintons.
I really don't think that she likes h. clinton. Pelosi pulled herself up and worked her way up on her own merits and based on super hard work. She obviously cannot have any respect for clinton and probably despises her based on clinton's conduct and trying to skate her way to the presidency based on who she was married to. You would think that more women would think this way. It really is surprising to me.
Awesome comment by pelosi.
March 11, 2008 3:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Very strong. I love the "Clinton Administration" line.
Also, she would not commit to either candidate, and when pressed about following her state's lead, she repeated she was uncommitted.
She did say she hoped the "people" would chose the President, more evidence she's leaning towards Obama.
Very good news.... for Obama.
March 11, 2008 3:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here's the video:
http://www.necn.com/category/32/4893
March 11, 2008 3:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for that link, SCMadden. It is a longer clip than what is on the front page of TPM, and therefore provides something else Pelosi said beyond the statement about the Clinton 'administration' touting McCain over Obama, thus destroying any possibility of a combined ticket.
I will have to paraphrase without a transcript: essentially Pelosi made another point that there is a lot at stake beyond the Presidency.....what is also at stake, she said, is how, as the primary race proceeds [she referred to being 'respectful'], the primary could affect the 'carrying the Congress', a matter which is of concern to her as Speaker of the House.
Pelosi speaking about this tells me she is quite attuned to the matter of coattails relative to each candidate, and also aware of Hillary Clinton's dissing of small states, caucus states, and red states.
March 11, 2008 5:56 PM | Reply | Permalink