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Gallup: Obama And Hillary Tied Nationally
The Gallup daily tracking poll now shows the Democratic race tightening again — after Barack Obama led by a significant margin for the last few days, it's now an even tie. Here are the numbers, compared to yesterday:
Obama 45% (-3)
Clinton 45% (+3)
If Hillary Clinton can pull off strong wins in Ohio and Texas, not to mention the crucial post-primary spin war, she might just be able to take the national lead again.
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We all know that'd make your day, Eric.
March 4, 2008 3:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
You're counting a lot of chickens.
March 4, 2008 3:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Who the hell keeps changing their mind, and why?
Ugh...
March 4, 2008 3:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's those fickle voters who rarely vote in primaries. the number of undecideds/leaners here in ohio last week was astounding. there is certainly some lingering love for bill here in ohio. hell, he's the last dem pres. to carry this state twice since...idk, a helluva a long time, prolly FDR.
March 4, 2008 3:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
And if she does...so what? Only a minority of states have any voting left. Do you disregard the votes that have been cast and look at the national polls? I know what the Clinton campaign would say, but the fact that this is even polled anymore (or, ahem, reported on), is silly.
March 4, 2008 3:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Which means...
...absolutely nothing.
But if it's good news for Hillary, it'll get posted at HRC Election Central!
March 4, 2008 3:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
And we also know that it won't mean a damn thing. As most of have being saying the last few weeks, with over half of the states having voted, these national tracking polls are a waste of money and time. Any polls on Wyoming or Mississippi? They are up in a few days and so far NOTHING.
March 4, 2008 3:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
I guess this could matter to the Super Delegates...
but really, if National Polls are going to decide our primary candidate, then let's just have ONE DAY to vote, and that's it.
Then Hillary would have been our Candidate on day one, and all these Clinton supporters could shut up.
March 4, 2008 3:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
She's getting a boost from all of the lies that are coming from her campaign, as well as from her very own mouth. Things will calm down a bit after today because Obama will crush her in Wyoming and Mississippi. And I mean CRUSH her. Of course, those are red states and they don't matter. Except Texas is a red state, but if she were to win it, it would matter. And Ohio is red, but not really, except Bush won it in 2004, but if she wins it then it counts, but if she doesn't, well, it was a red state and it doesn't matter.
March 4, 2008 3:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
When would she take the lead in delegates (for the first time in this election)?
March 4, 2008 3:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
What happened to the glee of the '11 and 0' since Super Tuesday' crowd? Sarcasm aside, it was always said that February would be rough for Clinton, with a likely whitewash in the cards. That happened. The question leading up to it was how would the campaign withstand the media response? It's been tough, and I wonder if she can pull it out, but in spite of it, Obama hasn't clinched anything mathematically, and no matter how today turns out, he won't do any better than get closer. Also, nobody should expect that she create a scenario for overtaking him in delegates by the convention. What she could do is remain in the hunt, competitive into the convention vote. Once those races were over, and the euphoria coverage put in the past, as they focused on these races today, the polls could show the overall race as tighter, more in line with the Super Tuesday picture, which they have.
March 4, 2008 3:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama hasn't clinched anything mathematically
How are you defining "mathematically"? He does have a nearly insurmountable lead: he's up ~150 pledged delegates. She needs to start posting average margins of victory of 20% (in pldeged delegates) from here on out. And obviously if she fails to do that today, she'll have to get even higher margins after today.
March 4, 2008 3:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
What she could do is remain in the hunt, competitive into the convention vote.
So, great, she does that, but she's still behind in the overall delegate count. Does that mean she waits for a live hooker/dead boy moment for Obama? How on earth does this scenario help either candidate's chances in November? Or is the goal "get the nomination by any means necessary, screw what it does to my party"?
March 4, 2008 3:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Eric/Greg:
Do you have access to that "leaked" Obama memo that detailed their predictions for each of the remaining contests (post Feb-5th)? I believe they predicted losses in Texas, Ohio and Rhode Island. Is that correct? It would be interesting to see how far, if at all, they are off the mark tonight.
March 4, 2008 3:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here you go - it said they would lose Maine also, along with Ohio, Texas and Penn.
"From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Deadlocked: Bloomberg News has the political junkie scoop of the post-Feb. 5 news cycle: that according to an accidental Obama campaign release, the Clinton-Obama match up will end in a virtual delegate draw. "Obama's advisers are predicting victories in 19 of the remaining 27 Democratic primaries and caucuses, with Clinton winning the big states of Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to the scenario attached to a spreadsheet showing the campaign's Super Tuesday delegate breakdown. The analysis envisions an Obama winning streak over the next 12 days. It projects victories in the Louisiana primary and caucuses in Nebraska and Washington state on Feb. 9 and a narrow loss to Clinton on Feb. 10 in Maine. Obama is looking to sweep the Feb. 12 primaries in Virginia, Maryland and Washington, D.C., and get victories in Hawaii and Wisconsin a week later." Normally, we'd assume this was an expectations-setting game. And maybe it is. But their analysis seems to be based on the number of working class and/or Hispanic Democrats in various states; check out the states Obama's team believes it will lose: Maine, Texas, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, West Virginia and Kentucky. All of those states have a lot more blue-collar Democrats than white-wine drinking Democrats. So it's a very realistic assessment. "
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/02/07/645500.aspx
March 4, 2008 3:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Looks like Hillary's kitchen sink did just enough to drag Obama through the mud to bring his poll numbers back down. She was watching the republicans in 2004. She learned well.
March 4, 2008 3:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
And if I could grow a big white beard, I'd be Papa Smurf.
March 4, 2008 3:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
sorry, but the "national lead" is meaningless at this point. What matters is delegates.
March 4, 2008 3:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
sorry, but the "national lead" is meaningless at this point. What matters is delegates.
March 4, 2008 3:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is one day of one poll. These things fluctuate.
March 4, 2008 3:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
EVEN IF SHE WINS 16 STRAIGHT BY A 60-40 MARGIN SHE STILL CANT OVERTAKE PLEDGED DELEGATES....
POLLS CANT CHANGE MATHMATICAL FACT...
POLICS OF HATE WORK...IN THE SHORT TERM WHEN THE PROGRESSIVE PRESS(TPM)NEGLECT THEIR DUTY....
ANNOUNCEMENT: TPM HAS JUST WON THE WILLIE HORTON AWARD....CONGRATS.
March 4, 2008 3:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
"false hope" is EXCELLENT NEWS!!! FOR HILLARY!!!!
March 4, 2008 3:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Some interesting news on the delegate front:
Tom Brokaw Says Obama Has 50 More Superdelegates in His Back Pocket
March 4, 2008 3:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't care, doesn't matter, I'm sick of poll watching.
March 4, 2008 3:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hear a lot of procrastination from the Obama supporters. (For disclosure, I am an Obama supporter as well.)
There are ups, and there are downs in any campaign. Do not forget, Obama is charging against the System. The question I would like to ask my fellow obamaniacs is the following: at this late moment in the election, would you trade places with Clinton's supporters?
I would not. If you are nervous, think of how nervous they must be. They surely realize by now that one plus one is two, no matter how hard they would like it to be three.
Keep your cool. The wind is behind our backs (most of the time.)
Sincerely,
Felix "Yes we can" Klein
March 4, 2008 3:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary has lost the nomination race by any objective measure, cannot win it, and won't; however she has "won" in her mission to intimidate the media masses into treating her campaign as if it has a chance. So the charade may go on a little longer, particularly if she ekes out a 3 out of 4 evening, but that will do nothing to change the outcome. Nothing. And in the process, much to my delight, she has shown all Democrats (at least those paying attention) what she's made of: her DNA is Republican. Some of us knew that a long time ago.
March 4, 2008 4:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Agree with Fighting Bill.
Obama will be the candidate for the Democratic Party. Today's elections will not be a blow-out for Hillary; anything less dooms her chances.
Just sayin....
March 4, 2008 4:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
FelixKlein, not only would I not trade places with her backers, but, if she's the nominee, am sick at the idea of voting for her. Only the Supreme Court has me worried. For one thing, I don't think she will win.
Yes, I'm sick today at the possibility of her winning both OH and TX. Even if Obama garners more delegates in TX, I want him to win the popular as well. No repeats of NV...
The one upside of the race moving into PA - it gives Obama six weeks to work his magic. Having gone through the mire of the last 10 days, he'll be far better prepared. If HRC continues the same tactics, she'll risk looking mean and desperate, playing into the caricature.
March 4, 2008 4:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Crap on a cracker. I'm tired of being depressed about Hillary getting some traction with her sleaze. Fuck her, and the group of overpaid asshats she rode in on. If she wins this fairly (which seems mathematically impossible), fine. But it's looking more and more like this will be a nonstop effort to move the goalposts as needed, demand "fair" treatment from the media (how dare they ask questions? How dare they ask *her* questions before someone else? Why doesn't she get a pillow?), file lawsuits Texas if it doesn't deliver a Hillary win, and insist that delegates from MI and FL be seated despite the previous agreement to the contrary.
I hope that video of Bill Clinto saying that she can't win w/out taking both TX and OH gets played NONSTOP following her loss in TX tonight (I'm feeling pretty confident about that, but I'll have to wait and see, along with everyone else who's pulling answers from the rectal database).
You know, I like Obama. I think he'd be a great president. But as much as I *like* Obama, I *dislike* Clinton twice as much. That's not about my wanting to see my guy win. It's about my total disappointment in her, in Bill Clinton, and in myself for ever having believed a single word from either of them. The Clintons are a disgrace to the democratic party, and they've bought and paid for every bit of derision they receive.
At least, I *think* they bought and paid for it. Hard to tell, without seeing those tax returns.
March 4, 2008 4:31 PM | Reply | Permalink