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Gallup: Obama Ahead Of Hillary By 10 Points
Today's Gallup tracking poll gives Barack Obama a full ten-point lead over Hillary Clinton. Here are the numbers, compared to yesterday:
Obama 52% (+2)
Clinton 42% (-1)
This is the largest lead that Obama has ever had in Gallup's polling, and marks the third consecutive day in which Obama has had a lead fully outside the margin of error.
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Hillary is gonna go nuclear next week. That is what Carville is hinting at.
March 30, 2008 2:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
It might be too late, since her credibility has taken a big hit.
March 30, 2008 2:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
What did Carville hint at? I saw the very end, where the three of them seemed to be having a good ol' time, but I didn't hear what he had to say earlier.
March 30, 2008 2:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
What can she do that she hasn't already done?
I don't sense that she's been holding back.
March 30, 2008 3:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Who? What? What did Carville say? I must have missed it?
March 30, 2008 4:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Going nuclear? More like "going Nader."
The upside, tragic and ironic as it may be, is that by utterly self destructing she may actually throw more support to Obama in the long run. She's nearing a tipping point where her credibility is so low that whatever energy she puts into the fight actually works against her.
Having said that, it's really damaging to the Democratic party overall, at least insofar as it's an institution supposedly established on competence.
March 30, 2008 8:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
It was "The View" that did it.
When the video of him bowling comes out, he's probably going to drop a few points. Guy has a lot of style, but not in bowling....
March 30, 2008 2:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
He lost my vote as soon as I realised he's left-handed.
March 30, 2008 3:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Left-handed, and, can't bowl.
Clearly, incapable of reaching the CIC threshold.
March 30, 2008 3:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Left hander is a good thing for a guy. All my favorite guys are left handed, even my son.
Guys are too right brained most of the time. Being left handed makes for a good balance, some important traits for a president are there.
So reverse your thinking. Vote for him BECAUSE he is left handed. Whole brain power!
March 30, 2008 4:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Right hemisphere (the right half of the brain) controls the left side of the body (including the left hand).
Just FYI.
March 30, 2008 4:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
You mean left handed, just like Bill Clinton?
March 30, 2008 4:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
This news is in idiotic's wheelhouse.
March 30, 2008 2:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is it too much to hope that this swing in public opinion will carry over to Pennsylvania?
This thing could be over real fast if Obama pulls an upset there.
March 30, 2008 2:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Hillary goes "nuclear" at this point - which is a point where she cannot make up the difference except by turning every single superdelegate, all she is doing is destroying our chances in the fall and I will never never never never forgive her.
It amounts to a goddamn temper tantrum and she's thrown herself on the floor and is kicking and screaming: "If I can't have it, no other Democrat can!"
I have never been so disgusted with a candidate in my life.
March 30, 2008 2:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
This may be permanent. I don't see how Clinton can explain away Tuzla -- and that strikes at the heart of her trustworthiness.
I'd be curious to see a new poll in Pennsylvania. The last one was March 26-27, with Clinton leading by 12 points. The Gallup national averages for those two days was Obama 47.5, Clinton 45. Today it's Obama 52, Clinton 42. Did that national change get reflected in Pennsylvania.
March 30, 2008 2:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't count on anything remotely "permanent." The public, as we've seen, is amazing fickle.
March 30, 2008 3:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is totally anecdotal, but a friend from Pittsburgh who has been a strong Hillary supporter now considers herself "on the fence." Maybe the tide is turning - even in Pennsylvania!
March 30, 2008 3:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
No be shy about anecdotal reports; I'd love to hear more of this kind of stuff from Pa.
March 30, 2008 3:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just gotta take PA and the jig will be up.
Did you all notice that orange halo around his head on The View? Hilarious.
March 30, 2008 3:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Mark Penn? Paging Mark Penn?
He sure gets quiet when she's down, doesn't he?
March 30, 2008 3:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Because polls are meaningless to Penn, unless Clinton happens to be leading, and then they are serious indicators of the state of the race.
March 30, 2008 3:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
shouldn't a pollster have more respect for the numbers?
March 30, 2008 3:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Shouldn't"? Well, yeah, but we're talking primary politics, where entire states don't matter, the popular vote doesn't matter, and the number of pledged delegates don't matter.
Stands to reason numbers would be irrelevant to Penn, except when they are in her favor.
March 30, 2008 4:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is the problem when the Chief Strategist for a campaign is also its Chief Pollster. He is going to start looking for what he wants to see. That Hillary let this happen is pretty amazing. I don't know why Bill, who should no better, did not warn her about this arrangement.
March 30, 2008 5:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Absolutely Suntzu. Mark Penn, and refusal to fire him despite the negatives written all over his fat ass- gives legitimate concern and reminds us of the loyalty over competence approach we've become used to in the last eight years.
If your inner circle- Penn, Wolfson, Doyle, Ickes and Williams- become household names you really have a management problem.
March 30, 2008 6:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
You are absolutely right! I work as a marketing analyst and as such I always stay out of the actual strategy planning before the analysis so that I don't have a fixed idea or opinion before I start crunching the numbers. It is just way to easy to find what you want to find if you let yourself.
These are obvious and simple ideas for analysts but many of them with big egos have long forgot this simple rule.
March 30, 2008 7:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here's the reality. Except for places like here on the TPM message boards, where you get die-hards for both Obama and Hillary, most people simply don't care and actually like both candidates. And whereas they may have preferred Hillary slightly or wanted to vote for and support a female candidate, Dems are getting apprehensive about November. So what you see are fence-sitters and lukewarm Clinton supporters deciding to vote for Obama out of party strength and unity.
Obama's numbers aren't going up because of Tuzla or "the speech" nearly as much as they are going up because the CW right now is that the only way Hillary can win is by kneecapping Obama. People are starting to realize that he is well in the lead in pledged delegates, and Democrats who want to win in November just want this wrapped up.
Now, like I said, there will always be the die-hards...
March 30, 2008 3:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Careful about "trends" in tracking polls. The most recent Gallup result incorporates results of surveys over March 27-29. So, this data is overlapping the data for those "three consecutive days" that Obama has been ahead by more than the margin of error (i.e. the results for those three days are correlated, not independent).
March 30, 2008 3:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
But what can be considered a trend is agreement across polls by different polling firms. Both Rasmussen and Pew have released polls very similar to the last three Gallup polls.
March 30, 2008 9:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
But what can be considered a trend is agreement across polls by different polling firms. Both Rasmussen and Pew have released polls very similar to the last three Gallup polls.
March 30, 2008 9:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here's the reality.
I think you're mostly right about that, billysumday. I will qualify it slightly - I do think there is more interest in the general population in this race than there has been in a race in a long time. But most people I've talked to would be happy with either one.
I agree that blog comments boards are not representative of the population in general, at all.
But what we do represent pretty squarely, is the progressive wing of the party, and we've worked really hard to get ourselves heard. We're being heard, finally. I think this election is going to be a real victory for the progressive wing, the netroots, and people-powered politics.
March 30, 2008 3:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Isn't it possible for the media to ignore Clintons' candicacy just like they ignored Biden, Dodd and Edwards?
Let her go to Denver, let her fight like the brawler she is but do we have to be forced to watch or listen?
Whatever happened to the media vacuum where you drown out the noise of those who are clear loser?
The media should simply cover Obama and McCain.
March 30, 2008 3:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
The media will always put on a good show. And by good, I mean something with a lot of noise and anger and conflict.
March 30, 2008 5:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
As to Clinton going nuclear next week: looks like it's already starting with this Washington Post "Fact Checker" smear on Obama:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/03/29/AR2008032902031.html?hpid=topnews
March 30, 2008 3:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
This doesn't change the fact that the Kennedy's were early backers of this program.
March 30, 2008 4:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Of course this mistake is a matter of giving somebody else too much credit, whereas Clinton's mistakes are all about giving herself too much credit.
Big diff.
March 30, 2008 6:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey Eric -
I noticed this 10 point lead isn't front-paged.
Why is that?
It's HUGE news.
Hmmmm.
March 30, 2008 3:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Heh yeah no kidding, funny how this poll doesn't get a headline.
March 30, 2008 4:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary was up by 2 on 3/27.
The see-saw continues. Is it a trend?
Probably not. Just more see-saw polls
in the primary. As the candidates tear each other
down and help McCain win the White House, without him having to exert too much money or time.
Keep micro-focusing on the polls and the primary battles and the White House will be McCains.
You need to look at the big picture.
The white house.
HRC and Obama either team up or they will probably not make it to the presidency.
March 30, 2008 4:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
The dream of the unity ticket continues. Good luck with that. Obama should never pick her for VP. He can find someone else with foreign policy/military experience who appeals to the blue collar voters without taking on her baggage. I like the Webb idea. He'd be far more helpful in the general.
March 30, 2008 4:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
The "factchecker" from the Washington Post seems the equivalent of Hillary's claim that she was named after Sir Edmund Hillary. A little bit of family mythologizing is hardly unusual in any family, although the difference between what happened regarding Kenya and Kennedy and what has been described by Obama is so slight, it hardly counts as mythologizing.
March 30, 2008 4:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
This poll is completely meaningless. It shows that Hillary is WINNING with 42%! Obama's 52% does not matter. Nothing related to Obama matters. Have you people not figured this out yet? This is Hillary's turn. The only polls or results that matter are those where Hillary is ahead. This is what happens when you people get fancy college degrees or graduate high school: you lose capacity to analyze these things. There is no way Hillary is going to lose with numbers like this.
March 30, 2008 4:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
of course she will say that, if she said something different, her people will not come out to vote.
i believe if she loses north carolina and indiana
she will have to start thinking about getting out.
be interesting to see how much she wins PA by.
i believe obama will make inroads in the PA popular vote, although she does have every politician in PA backing her, except for casey.
March 30, 2008 4:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think that after the primaries, the superdelegates will realize, based on her being behind in pledged delegates, popular vote and high personal negatives in the polls that Hillary is unelectable and will throw their support toward Obama, putting him over the top way before the convention.
March 30, 2008 5:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
If they already see that now, then they should start throwing their public support to Obama immediately, and help him mount a Pennsylvania surge that either wins him the state or makes it close. The Clinton strategy right now is to have a strong win in Pennsylvania and build that into a "tide is turning" media narrative. If the supers really believe Clinton is a weak candidate for the fall, then they should work to end her candidacy as soon as possible, rather than help her stretch it out indefinitely.
March 30, 2008 6:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good. If this trend continues, we'll be spared all the Clintonian BS about Michigan, and Florida, and the electoral college, and the whining about sexism...
The Clintons can READ them some polls! That much we know.
Let's just stick to the numbers.
March 30, 2008 5:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
I guess most of you have read or heard of the Politico article by Hillary's campaign owing money to so many small companies. I read a post at HuffPo I have to share. This poster said that the 3 AM call was from a creditor who wants to be paid for the donuts he supplied to the campaign.
March 30, 2008 5:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
When will Carville call him the N word?
March 30, 2008 5:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
As an Obama supporter I'm thrilled to see a ten point difference. However, I'd take caution.
If Obama can maintain a lead of 8 to 10 points over the next week then it holds greater significance.
PA primary is almost four weeks away- and while a few variables should remain constant, a few more have to swing in his favor. If Obama can keep it down to less than 10 point difference in PA and popular deficit to say 200,000 votes- this is over.
I guess I will hold my excitment for a couple more weeks- if PA polls close in...you'll hear a lot more of Hillary cracking the walls of living room.
March 30, 2008 5:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
A new PA poll is what I'm waiting for.
But, this poll is now in it's 3rd day of 50+ for Obama. The trend is now clear.
HRC's # are tanking in this and all the other polls.
I agree with you though about being cautious.
But unless Obama is found to be a transsexual who killed a child while drunk driving, I'm not that worried.
;-)
March 30, 2008 5:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Josh: Below ia my response to your response. I guess, the reply tab doesn't always work the way its supposed to...sorry.
March 30, 2008 6:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wasn't sure, but I had a feeling...
Check this out:
DKer, JedReport, makes a simple, yet powerful point in "A leading indicator of a doomed candidacy"
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/3/30/162324/643/888/487282
I think the numbers in PA will be neck & neck soon enough. I also think Edwards will come out for him before PA to be the final nail in her campaign. Just a feeling, no proof of course.
[big grin]
March 30, 2008 6:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
“How much longer will I stay in the race?” she responded to a voter’s question. “Fifty years? How about one hundred years?
"Bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb Obombma!"
March 30, 2008 7:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks Josh.
I for one thought her statement about taking it all the way to the convention was unwise- though that's the reality. It depresses many democrats who just want to see the race end ASAP.
March 30, 2008 11:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is real hard news, unlike previous polls. Here on supers are going to take much closer look at the polls than before.
I expect few more superdelegates to come out in support for Obama in the next couple of weeks, especially if he maintains the lead of 5 to 10 points.
I hope PA becomes a toss up or atleast Obama closes in within 10 points- you'll see some Hillary antics live in your living room.
Definetly good news, but I'd take caution and keep and eye for the next couple of days.
I think the new "can't win" narrative is working against Hillary and talk of going all the way to the convention doesn't help in eclipising the desperation.
March 30, 2008 5:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
"NUCULEAR": expect tears, already saw the 'big boys club' comment for the week. Maybe a few other sinks and dishes, rehash Wright and Rezko, hammer the titular professor thang...can't see it buying her back in, the problem for her is the negatives she picked up in the week or so. And nuculear (as W says) only makes them worse....
I would like Edwards to come out, but I just don't see it. He had a lot of power around Super TU or Ohio/TX, but now, he's already lost the big opportunity. Obama has, barring something dramatic, won. He doesn't have to bargin for JE anymore...but I would LOVE to have him as AG...
March 30, 2008 8:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Having JE couldn't hurt though. Especially in NC.
March 30, 2008 9:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary: I'm in it until Denver.
Gallup: No you're not.
March 30, 2008 8:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Dems responding in these polls are just using words, I mean, they are just saying they support Obama. Hillary is about action, not words... she is still clearly more electable. These polls raise troubling questions about Obama.
March 30, 2008 9:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ooops!
I edited my avatar and all of a sudden I can't see my avator or any one else's (except for the grey headshot). Anybody know how to restore? Thanks.
March 30, 2008 9:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Suntzu- I can see your avatar.
March 30, 2008 11:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain/Clinton in 2008, Just a matter of time. I agree with yadayadablog.com.
March 30, 2008 9:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota is expected to endorse Sen. Obama Monday, according to a Democrat familiar with her plans. Meanwhile, North Carolina's seven Democratic House members are poised to endorse Sen. Obama as a group -- just one has so far -- before that state's May 6 primary, several Democrats say.
The floodgates are opening.
March 30, 2008 10:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Advice for Barack: don't ever get close enough to the drowning DNC or Hillary that they can get a death grip on you. Keep in mind that drowning people often take their rescuers down with them if they get a hold of their would be rescuers.
March 30, 2008 10:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
I already expected Hillary to go nuclear this week, because she promised to release her income tax statements this week. I expect when she does she wants the media concentrating on a negative story on Obama. I've stopped watching cable news and I wish Obama supporters would join me, because she is not able to compete with Obama's advertising dollars and is using the media as advertisement for her campaign. I'm tired of being manipulated by the Clintons and Carville on the cable news. And if their ratings drop, maybe the news channels will stop covering Clinton like she's still viable.
March 31, 2008 12:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
...except these were all events that took place before he was born, and did not directly involve him. Not to mention, airlifts may well have been conducted in secret or on an ad-hoc basis a year earlier than a formal program would have been announced or publicized.
Please put this in the context of someone else "misremembering" direct experiences a scant 12 years earlier -- you know, in the course of this extremely valuable professional experience we keep hearing about.
March 31, 2008 1:52 AM | Reply | Permalink