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Gallup: Obama Ahead Of Hillary By 6 Points
Today's Gallup tracking poll shows Barack Obama extending a small lead into a significant one. Here are the numbers, compared to yesterday:
Obama 50% (+2)
Clinton 44% (-2)
Meanwhile, the two Democrats both tie John McCain in the general election match-ups:
Obama (D) 45%, McCain (R) 45%
Clinton (D) 46%, McCain (R) 46%
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THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS!! FOR HILLARY!!!
March 14, 2008 1:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
What about Rasmussen? Its at 8%.
And I still think national polls are meaningless at this point.
March 14, 2008 1:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
But Clinton can still taste it.
Everytime some pseudo-controversy emerges about Obama, she goes to bed telling herself, "This is the one. This has got to be the one."
But it never is.
It never will be.
Not Goolsbee, not Power, not Wright.
No matter how many helpful "scoops" she gets from ABC and Halperin, it'll never be enough.
It'll always be just close enough to where she can taste it... but can't take it.
March 14, 2008 1:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have offered several prominent news reporters a night with a 5000 dollar an hour hooker if they can tell me---who are these people polling? voters who already voted and are too disgusted to vote in November? People who did not vote in the primaries, but who intend to vote in November. People who voted for Giuliani, but have switched to nader? Obamacrats for mcCain? McBushicans for Obama. Women for Hillary who had sex-change operations and are now for obama?
Who is being polled---and why?
Rasmussen has obama up by 8---there is a definite trend this week. As Obama concentrates on Pennsylvania, (he has a history of cutting margins)and it dawns on people how ridiculous the 3 a.m. and nafta and snlive stuff was---he could win there, and in NC, Oregon and Indiana---and the greatest thing of all will happen---Florida and Michigan won't matter, and will end up as irrelevant as they should have been all along.
March 14, 2008 1:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
The fact that Obama is tying with McCain suggests that the "kitchen sink" is working. He was up a few weeks ago.
March 14, 2008 1:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes it is working, but more for McCain then Hillary sadly. Once its just McCain vs Obama then Obama can start making some gains on him.
March 14, 2008 1:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Are there any cross-tabs? I don't see them in the link but maybe if you subscribe or something?
Rasmussen has a strikingly similar finding (50-42 Obama) out today and their internals find the following:
And given Obama's margins w/ African-Americans, even if the 9% of them who support Clinton are all women (and that's doubtful, from what I saw at the caucuses in TX), you're still looking at the majority of Clinton's support coming from white women.
I'd love to see an age breakdown of that too. I imagine the break for Clinton gets bigger the older you get.
It's worth noting that white women are a much bigger bloc in Democratic primaries than they are in General Elections. Women have consistently been near 60% of the electorate in primaries thus far, while they'll be closer to 51-52% in the GE. Party registration numbers mirror that too.
For what it's worth.
March 14, 2008 1:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Again, polls are simply questionable data points used as evidence by anyone with a poor argument to make. That said, I find that the trend of Obama gaining likely is due to the Ferraro thing, but I suspect that the whole Rev Wright thing will bring him back to earth.
I mean, how else would the MSM keep this thing even? (Early on, when I was pro Clinton and Obama, I thought the media played a big role in getting Obama close - they wanted it that way)
March 14, 2008 1:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm sure it is because he is black - right Gerry?
March 14, 2008 1:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
The finely tuned mass media juggling act continues on, how long can they keep three campaigns in the air? They're juggling Obama and Clinton with one hand and holding McCain in the other. Clearly, the goal is to keep things as close as possible, to keep the audience breathless. If Obama does well then favor Clinton, if Clinton does well favor Obama, I think they'll try to keep it going to the convention, then pull out McCain for the general. Since McCain is in essence getting a pass on just about everything, for now, national polls versus his current status don't seem all that meaningful aren't likely to be used for anything but keeping the Democratic campaigns in apparent parity.
March 14, 2008 1:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's much easier for McCain to get a pass on everything when he doesn't have anyone aggressively pushing the media on his potential negatives. Were Obama to become the de facto nominee (in perception; he's almost there in reality, but it takes the MSM some time to catchup), his campaign would be going after everything, which would create bad media for McCain.
Right now, though, they're too busy batting back this nonsense from the Clintons
Annoying
March 14, 2008 1:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Both Rasumussen & Gallup have Obama at the 50% mark. 50% is important because generally that means people are beginning to really make up their minds and becoming relatively sure of their choice. Once a candidate gets to the 50% mark, it becomes a lot more difficult to erode that particularly late in the process.
Now that isn't to say that it won't dip back below it or that can't change but eventually candidates who cross that threshold tend to stick.
Nat'l polls don't mean much to the popular vote but they do to super delegates.
March 14, 2008 1:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
This 50% mark doesn't yet seem as significant as you are making it out to be. In the Rasmussen poll, this is the first time *ever* that Obama has hit 50%, which is an interesting data point... but in the Gallup poll, he was at 50% the week before OH/TX, and Clinton was at 52% just shortly after Super Tuesday, and both came down from that point pretty quickly.
Maybe once it gets to the 55% or so range, it might begin to stick. My bet, however, is that tomorrow the lead is narrower in both polls. We'll see.
March 14, 2008 2:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
This obviously doesn't matter. Here at HRC Election Central they just announced that Obama has been dealt a death blow. It is all over now.
Truly hilarious.
March 14, 2008 1:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
In all fairness, they raised the question if it was a death blow (a ridiculous question, maybe). But they posted one response in favor and one response (far more compelling, in my opinion) against.
March 14, 2008 2:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
In all fairness, what was Mr. Kurtz to do once he received an email or two from some unknown strangers. It is not like Mr. Kurtz is a real Journalist or something.
Looks like Geraldine Ferraro has taken to emailing in her points now, and it appears to be paying off.
I always love when TPM decides to post such a incendiary proposition, but does so in a way that readers can not post comments on the thread.
Thanks Mr. Kurtz for your stink bomb.
March 14, 2008 2:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, you have a point.
March 14, 2008 2:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've always thought Obama was a statesman, different from all the rest. That is his main appeal. (and I'm a white 49 year old woman!) (but my demographic of highly educated puts me as an Obama supporter...)
Anyway, If he is the true statesman of the Kennedy type, he will weather this storm. And as someone else mentioned, McCain would have dug this up if Hillary hadn't. If Obama can pass this "test" before the GE, McCain doesn't have a chance of winning against him.
So, Thanks HRC for this kitchen sink. Everyone, don't underestimate Obama. My only worry is that he'll get through all of the attacks and to the convention and he'll still be ahead in delegates, but the Clintons will somehow steal it away with the supers.
I hope it doesn't get that ugly.
March 14, 2008 2:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Riling Archie Bunker up was a risky strategy for the Clinton campaign.
First, it seems to be pissing off lots of non-Arch types.
Second, and they might have though of this before, Arch doesn't think so highly of a female president either.
March 14, 2008 2:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's due to Sanity. Who's Sane?
Barack "Who's Sane" Obama!
(alternate reading: "He's Sane")
Must be sanity is prevailing.
March 14, 2008 2:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
How long do you think this is going to last when the press gets through vetting Rev. Wright and Brother Obama.
March 14, 2008 2:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ah, it doesn't matter, tomorrow he will be down 2 and she will be up 2. This will go on and on and on until its over. No knock-outs.
March 14, 2008 2:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
How come no one is bringing up the fact that Bill Clinton passed on opportunties to get bin Laden in the 90's. I think its time we brought that up......it is, afterall, part of the 35 years.
March 14, 2008 2:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Because you're confusing lies that a Republican film maker inserted into a bogus docudrama with what really happened.
March 14, 2008 5:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
When our candidate is up in these tracking polls we cheer, when they are down we diss the poll. My candidate is up but it's hard for me to see how these national tracking polls mean anything at all, especially with the day to day volatility. It is the state polls, to the extent they have any validity, which is questionable, which really have better sampling and measurement ability.
March 14, 2008 2:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't think that's true. I think the majority of people on here have been pretty consistent in their stance that national polls don't mean anything.
March 14, 2008 2:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't know why they keep posting this lame gallup poll. It wavers back and forth within 5 points from week to week both ways. Enough allready!
March 14, 2008 3:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Holy sheep!!!!! We agree on something else???? WTF is going on. It's frightening.
Baaaahhhhhh!!!
March 14, 2008 5:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
It doesn't matter who's in the lead head to head when they're both behind McCain in Ohio.
March 14, 2008 7:47 PM | Reply | Permalink