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Gallup: Hillary Takes Two-Point National Lead Over Obama

Today's Gallup tracking poll shows Hillary Clinton taking a narrow national lead over Barack Obama. Here are the numbers, compared to the poll from yesterday:

Clinton 47% (+2)
Obama 45% (-3)

From Gallup's analysis: "While not statistically significant, Clinton's two percentage point advantage in today's report is a notable shift, particularly in light of the political storm Obama has faced over the past few days concerning controversial political statements made by the former pastor of his Chicago church."

For the general-election matches, John McCain is narrowly leading Obama while tying against Hillary:

McCain (R) 46%, Obama (D) 44%
Clinton (D) 46%, McCain (R) 46%

Late Update: A separate USA Today/Gallup poll gives different horse-race numbers against McCain:

Clinton (D) 51%, McCain (R) 46%
Obama (D) 49%, McCain (R) 47%

45 Comments

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My guess is you'll post this (breathlessly) on the front page within the hour. And a couple of days from now when this turns out to be statistically noise, there won't be a corresponding (and equally breathless) post on the front page.

This is great news for Hillary and her supporters. This is the first time in a while at least, her numbers with Gallup's poll has moved above 46.

If I was an investor, I'd say it's a clear buy Hillary signal!

Go Hillary. Hurray!!

It's a good thing you're not my investor. You buy a lot of stock once it hits its record high? How's that work out for you?

Or are you just trying to sell off those Intrade Hillary shares you've been holding onto?

You're an idiot.

There is a clear buy signal when a future or stock crosses with a down signal.

The down signal is Obama, his stock is going down baby....

There is a cross over emerging and I would BUY BUY BUY....

You obviously know NOTHING about technical analysis just as you know NOTHING about people who should be elected as president of the free world. In case you didn't know, you really shouldn't vote for racists who hate our country and have the bad judgment to associate with money launderers and bribers like Rezko, or racist conspiracy mongers like Wright....

Maybe you will learn a lot from this election...

Anyone who claims to anything about technical analysis should be very aware of the concept of noise. Citing a statistically insignificant event as anything but noise shows no understanding at all.

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Lol. This Rae character is hilarious. Or as she would say: HILARIOUS!!

He might be onto something, as long as he's just daytrading Hillary. It's not a buy-and-hold, obviously.

Maybe if he's daytrading, but (at the risk of making a Clintonista's argument for them) if I were daytrading in Presidential candidates, I'd go with Obama at least right now is showing more general instability that I'd probably be able to swing short term profit from but he's also showing that he's in the process of addressing the issues causing his price to fluctuate.

If you're looking for a stock, while the Democrats are gutting each other on a regular basis McCain would be a smart short term pickup. I'd probably get rid of any McCain options sometime around August however as he hasn't had a history of over-preforming when directly compared to other blue chip stocks.

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The time for timing has past.

If you wanted to win a bundle, the last two months of entirely predictable volatility was easy money. Obama's rocket to 70 and plummet to 20, due to totally predictable events, pretty much guaranteed he'd bounce right up again.

Goes to show how many goof balls there are in markets and casinos. The invisible hand picks pockets.

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Not exactly the day to compare elections to the stock market...

Senator Clinton was at 48 in this same poll less than 2 weeks ago.

People are finally beginning to know a little bit more about Obama and what they are finding out is scary. Despite the fawning press and liberal blogs refusal to dig into his past these things have a way of coming out over time.
Rezco and Rev Wright are real scumbags and are of course two of Ombama's closest friends and supporters. His poll numbers will soon be sinking like a rock.

There is no evidence thus far to suggest Rev. Wright has made any other "controversial" remarks outside of the few documented in his 30 years of preaching, and there is no evidence thus far that Obama was ever in attendance when Rev. Wright made "controversial" remarks. It is unfortunate that Rev. Wright chose to end his long career in such a fashion, but there is nothing there that disqualifies Obama as a viable candidate.

As for Rezko, the story has been beaten to death, and still no evidence of wrongdoing on Obama's part. He received no discount on his house, did Rezko no favors, donated all money raised by Rezko EVER to charity. The worst he did was consult him on the quality of the property he eventually bought, and bought a strip of land Rezko had previously purchased. Completely legal actions. There is nothing there that disqualifies Obama as a viable candidate.

If this is the best Obama's opponents can do, I'd say he has this thing just about wrapped up.

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Rezko? Yeah, all Hillary donors.

It's sCarY! SCARY I tell you!

lol. Gotta love these internet bots. It's pretty funny how little they have to work with.

And the 47 superdelegates in the past few weeks vs Hillary's (going on who you ask) net gain of 1 or loss of up to 7, is surely a sign of the same.

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OMG.

SKY IS FALLING.

PLEASE ADVISE.

Whatever you do, don't look up!

Clear, unobstructed vision is detrimental for your health in the event of a Sky Is Falling emergency.

I thought he would've dropped even further when the Wright story breaks out. Do you know he's going to give a major speech on race tomorrow in Pennsylvania?

While not statistically significant

margin of error
margin of excitement by TPM staff

Here's one you aren't reporting:
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/03/17/774959.aspx

By our count, the Clinton campaign hasn’t publicly announced the support of a new superdelegate since just after February 5. Indeed, since Super Tuesday, Obama has gained 47 new superdelegates, while Clinton has lost seven (including Eliot Spitzer). Does Clinton have a bigger problem on the superdelegate front than folks realize?

That doesn't include the one he got today.

Well, if the "we" they're talking about is the MSM, the answer would be "UH, YE-AAAH!" For those of us who actually dig around for actual facts rather than just cotinually eat and re-regurgitate the same CW vomit over and over again, not so much.

The Gallup 3-day tracking poll has had the two candidates essentially dead even for the past month. Today is no different from yesterday, the day before, or the day before that. There's no reason whatsoever to post this, any more than there was reason to post a breathless story a week ago when Senator Obama passed Senator Clinton in this poll, or the week before, when Senator Clinton passed Senator Obama.

One point above what she polled three days ago is a revolution, Rae. Woo-hoo! If anything, the fact Obama's numbers haven't cratered is pretty amazing. Rezko has no legs as a scandal (probably because it isn't one). Whether the Wright flap will cause real damage will only be known later. So far, I think he's weathering it pretty well. Now he can at least answer the "tell us about a crisis you've been through" question.

Rasmussen shows Obama's numbers are falling...falling...falling.......


LOL

I think the Iowa Electronic Markets tend to be a more solid and historically accurate prediction of who will win, for those finding it difficult to weather the bumpy ride of daily polls...or for those who are not impressed with the election results yet.
I think they're at 69 something for Barack and 27 something for HRC today.

The church will defend Wright (as they should) and Obama will move on to speak eloquently and intelligently about the issues (if he's allowed). Economy, anyone?

If and when anybody starts to care what McCain thinks or does, then I might start looking at predictions involving him.

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Ok...i'm sick of daily tracking polls.

i really am. And to think, only seven more months of them.

When you post news like this, you post for Hillary.

Obama: Judgment you can trust.

LOL!!!

Yeah, judgment like Rezko, Exelon, and now Wright!

ROTFLMAO

Umm, "not statistically significant" and "notable" should not be used simultaneously to describe the same thing, unless you're severely logic-challenged.

I'm a big Obama guy and Friday's news shocked me a bit. But, only a bit. However, as a lilly white guy from Minnesota, age 30, I guess that was what I could expect. I'm a Lutheran, so not a whole lot of controversial stuff gets said at church. The intial shock to me was "whoa"...then I thought about it for a few minutes and basically came to the conclusion that while I certainly do not agree with him on everything, the guy certainly has a point. Chris Rock always said the most racist people were old, black men. Rev. Wright said things that shock people and were offensive. I'm guessing they weren't being said to be concilliatory. Racist? Perhaps. However, walk a few miles in this guy's shoes in his life and you might end up the same way.

I'm guessing this is why the drop hasn't been bigger. I initially thought it might be the Dean Scream, but it doesn't appear to be so. A swing of 5 points over a weekend where NOTHING was on the news but this? And on the radio (even on XM POTUS 08, which is essentially C-SPAN)? 5 points? To quote Andrew Shepherd (from "The American President"), he probably loses 5 points "when Wisconsin doesn't make it to the Rose Bowl". Perhaps I'm missing something, but Obama takes it on the chin over the last few days about Rezko and Rev. Wright and the only swing is 5 points?

Let's face it, guys. A good chunk of white people (including me) ascribe to the notion or myth that most church-going black people attend service in a congregation that is pentecostal, heavily involved in social issues, with a rather large chunk of post-50-years members carrying a significant amount of frustration and anger based on life experience. This translates into fiery sermons with incendiary language. Is this any surprise to anyone here?

Why didn't the polls move much? Most people already took this into account. Since Obama is now using this moment as a teaching moment (and it's during a dead political news cycle), he only has up to go from here. He'll probably get spanked in PA, but that's already expected.

This, too, shall pass...

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Oops, I am in Rev. Wright's age group, so I guess I have to call myself an old white gal.
But, because of my age, one grade school memory is still etched in my mind. We had only one black family in our small midwestern town, and their two children attended my grade school.
That memory etched in my mind was seeing this little black boy standing alone against the schoolyard fence trying to get away from a bunch of white kids deriding him with the taunt 'chocolate bar!', 'chocolate bar!', 'chocolate bar!'. Kids are dumb and cruel, aren't they?

Being then around 8 years old, I didn't comprehend the reasons for those taunts. I was just aware of some awful meanness.

What did Rev. Wright endure growing up in the same era? The 'chocolate bar' taunt, or worse? One thing I would guess is that the ones so ready to denigrate Rev. Wright today are the same ones who, as children, would have joined in ugliness as children.

do these polls take into account the amount of democrats vs. republicans who are expected to vote in November? it seems that all the primaries have shown that democrats are coming out in greater numbers. anyone know if this changes the way we are looking at these polls?

If not for those 48 supers in the last six weeks and the +10 for Obama over the weekend in Iowa, these Hillary supporters might be on to something.

I read something this weekend that makes me feel much better about all this. The coalescing around Obama is well underway. See point above. It isn't starting - it's underway. Clinton's only hope at this point is to obfuscate - thus the effort to not allow the TX caucus results to be released. The party has decided - see Pelosi comment. The MSM and the people fickle enough to change their minds on a daily basis may not have figured it out yet, but it's happened.

I think the only thing keeping a lot of the big supers from endorsing is an effort to keep Hillary supporters from completely bolting. They need to figure it out for themselves rather than be beat over the head with it.

Finally, I find this whole thing a bit disconcerting. Where was the outrage over Hagee - that man is a whacko and people were like, oh well...

Since we are talking of stock analagies:

Obama is like Enron stock.

It looked great at first and everyone wanted IN.

Then, when people got a chance to see the real books it crashed.

Just like Obama is now crashing now that people are learning a little more about the real guy.


Rae

Yes, Sheep Brain, you are full of wise insight as always. He completely crashed at the Iowa county conventions this weekend. It's all over now.

Did someone mention "troll"? Yeah, you are!

Wow, I wish I lived in your world where a 3% drop constitutes a "crash."

If Enron stock had only fallen 3%, I doubt most people would have even noticed.

Also, RaeK, I'm curious what you're going to say when Obama's "stock" rises again next week? Hmmm?

Well SCMadden, that "crashing" comment may be a bit premature, I'll admit, but I believe that is what will be, it is just the beginning!

;)

Go Hillary! Yeah!

Solid Blue Chip Stock!

I am a troll because I disagree with you and refuse to bow down to Her Royal Corruptness? At least I add some halfway intelligent thought to the discussion instead of continually bleating "Hillary . . . Hillary . . . LOL . . . Blah Blah Blah." Can you even come up with ONE concrete reason to vote for her? Can you name one useful thing she has done for America in her 35 Years of Experience?

An Even better poll for Hillary people:

USA TODAY/Gallup Poll: Clinton up 5 points on McCain; Obama up [only] 2 [within margin of error]

If the election were held today (and yes, we know it won't be), Democratic contender Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton would get 51% of the vote to Republican candidate Sen. John McCain's 46%, the latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll estimates. In a match-up between Democratic Sen. Barack Obama and McCain, Obama comes out ahead 49%-47%.

http://blogs.usatoday.com/onpolitics/2008/03/usa-todaygallup.html?csp=34

BUY Hillary stock!! A Solid blue chip stock!

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Wow, people get paid to cut and paste polls every day and pretend it's news.

It kind of amazes me TPM is actually paying Kleefeld and Sargent to blog daily polls, when the graphic and link to the poll tracking data is far more informative. The upside of course being the additional overhead and managerial load on TPM's proprietor, the only blogger any good at TPM.

Brilliant.

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btw, I'd also add that RaeK probably has some Hillary she wants to unload.

Now would be a very bad time to buy Hillary. Her only likely positive is PA and it's all downhill from there. Attempting to time PA is also a lot of risk for slim gains.



This remind me -- send this to anyone you know in Penn.:

Register online in PA by March 24

http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/pahome

https://www.pavoterservices.state.pa.us/Pages/VoterRegistrationApplication.aspx

Spread the word and GOTV!

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Voters are weary of Obama always picking fights and then walking away from them pointing blame at Clinton. Obama passed the weary threshold a few weeks ago. He is now all downhill. Thank goodness. The long national nightmare will soon be over and the big kids will come out and clean up this mess he made.

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