My guess is you'll post this (breathlessly) on the front page within the hour. And a couple of days from now when this turns out to be statistically noise, there won't be a corresponding (and equally breathless) post on the front page.

People are finally beginning to know a little bit more about Obama and what they are finding out is scary. Despite the fawning press and liberal blogs refusal to dig into his past these things have a way of coming out over time.
Rezco and Rev Wright are real scumbags and are of course two of Ombama's closest friends and supporters. His poll numbers will soon be sinking like a rock.

OMG.

SKY IS FALLING.

PLEASE ADVISE.

While not statistically significant

margin of error
margin of excitement by TPM staff

Here's one you aren't reporting:
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/03/17/774959.aspx

By our count, the Clinton campaign hasn’t publicly announced the support of a new superdelegate since just after February 5. Indeed, since Super Tuesday, Obama has gained 47 new superdelegates, while Clinton has lost seven (including Eliot Spitzer). Does Clinton have a bigger problem on the superdelegate front than folks realize?

One point above what she polled three days ago is a revolution, Rae. Woo-hoo! If anything, the fact Obama's numbers haven't cratered is pretty amazing. Rezko has no legs as a scandal (probably because it isn't one). Whether the Wright flap will cause real damage will only be known later. So far, I think he's weathering it pretty well. Now he can at least answer the "tell us about a crisis you've been through" question.

I think the Iowa Electronic Markets tend to be a more solid and historically accurate prediction of who will win, for those finding it difficult to weather the bumpy ride of daily polls...or for those who are not impressed with the election results yet.
I think they're at 69 something for Barack and 27 something for HRC today.

The church will defend Wright (as they should) and Obama will move on to speak eloquently and intelligently about the issues (if he's allowed). Economy, anyone?

If and when anybody starts to care what McCain thinks or does, then I might start looking at predictions involving him.

When you post news like this, you post for Hillary.

Obama: Judgment you can trust.

I'm a big Obama guy and Friday's news shocked me a bit. But, only a bit. However, as a lilly white guy from Minnesota, age 30, I guess that was what I could expect. I'm a Lutheran, so not a whole lot of controversial stuff gets said at church. The intial shock to me was "whoa"...then I thought about it for a few minutes and basically came to the conclusion that while I certainly do not agree with him on everything, the guy certainly has a point. Chris Rock always said the most racist people were old, black men. Rev. Wright said things that shock people and were offensive. I'm guessing they weren't being said to be concilliatory. Racist? Perhaps. However, walk a few miles in this guy's shoes in his life and you might end up the same way.

I'm guessing this is why the drop hasn't been bigger. I initially thought it might be the Dean Scream, but it doesn't appear to be so. A swing of 5 points over a weekend where NOTHING was on the news but this? And on the radio (even on XM POTUS 08, which is essentially C-SPAN)? 5 points? To quote Andrew Shepherd (from "The American President"), he probably loses 5 points "when Wisconsin doesn't make it to the Rose Bowl". Perhaps I'm missing something, but Obama takes it on the chin over the last few days about Rezko and Rev. Wright and the only swing is 5 points?

Let's face it, guys. A good chunk of white people (including me) ascribe to the notion or myth that most church-going black people attend service in a congregation that is pentecostal, heavily involved in social issues, with a rather large chunk of post-50-years members carrying a significant amount of frustration and anger based on life experience. This translates into fiery sermons with incendiary language. Is this any surprise to anyone here?

Why didn't the polls move much? Most people already took this into account. Since Obama is now using this moment as a teaching moment (and it's during a dead political news cycle), he only has up to go from here. He'll probably get spanked in PA, but that's already expected.

This, too, shall pass...

Since we are talking of stock analagies:

Obama is like Enron stock.

It looked great at first and everyone wanted IN.

Then, when people got a chance to see the real books it crashed.

Just like Obama is now crashing now that people are learning a little more about the real guy.

Rae

btw, I'd also add that RaeK probably has some Hillary she wants to unload.

Now would be a very bad time to buy Hillary. Her only likely positive is PA and it's all downhill from there. Attempting to time PA is also a lot of risk for slim gains.