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Gallup: Hillary Takes Four-Point National Lead Over Obama

Today's Gallup tracking poll gives Hillary Clinton a four-point national leader over Barack Obama — the first time in several weeks that she's been able to claim that big a lead. Here are the numbers, compared to yesterday:

Clinton 48% (+3)
Obama 44% (-1)

Obama had been up 48%-43% two days ago, meaning there has been a potentially significant swing of about four or five percent over to Hillary in that short time.

These numbers don't include any polling from after her wins last night. The first such results will be include din tomorrow's release.


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I was going to argue that as more and more states have finished voting the national polls become less and less relevant, but now I'm not so sure. I think that if Hillary wins PA she may have enough 'mo to convice supers that she is both the "popular" choice and the candidate most likely to win in November.

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I doubt it. Even if she wins PA huge, she's still going to trail in pledged delegates.

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She'll still trail hugely in delegates and be unable to challenge McCain with indie voters. It's important to look at the internals of "wins" for margins and also the composition of supporters.

Obama is winning swing states by huge margins, by actually expanding his camp with independents and new voters. By doing so he actually expands and changes the demographics of the GE in his favor. That's one dimension of real "change."

Hillary is working the democratic machine in states where the DNC is heavily invested, big states, same as Kerry did. Which is a losing strategy and the SOS.

This is a classic case of institutional and bureaucratic rot. Hillary and her supporters represent a DNC more interested in maintaining allegiances and hierarchy, even as the party diminishes, because they're unable to bring in new people.

Gee, let me guess, these numbers will jump around next week after Obama crushes her in Wyoming and Mississippi?

Don't get too cocky about Wyoming. The demographics of the state actually look pretty good for Hillary, and she is going to fight there.

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How do the demographics look good for her there?

She hasn't done all that well in Western states or caucuses.

Meanwhile Dayton, OH mayor endorses Obama.

http://1290whio.com/includes/news/indepth/5279860_Dayton_Mayor_Endorses_Barack_Obama_104020.html

"It's the delegates, stupid"

So another black politician is endorsing Obama. There's a shocker.

Someone should buy the Mayor a calendar.

Am I the only one who thought this comment was uproarious?

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So are Hillary and Penn actually going to RAISE THE BAR by predicting Mississippi and Wyoming wins in the next 7 days?

It would be a nice change of pace.

doesn't matter

This poll is totally bogus.
Any poll that doesn't show Obama with his double digit lead is bogus.
And TPM is such a Shillary for promoting this bogus poll.

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Your sarcasm sucks.

LOL, yeah I agree.

Oh, you were being sarcastic? Well, I still agree. Obama is the leader of the Democratic primary, both in popular votes and in pledged delegates. And it's not going to change with PA or any other state.

The sooner you accept reality and deal with it, the better.

Yeah?

Well your Avatar is way too big (just like your head!)

LOL

Right now the only poll that matters is the vote total in Wyoming and Mississippi. When Obama wins both, Hillary's massive ten delegate victory yesterday will be effectively gone.

Ohmigod! Does this mean polls matter again?

Only if they favor Hillary...

too bad for her, polls don't pick the nominee.

Polls certainly don't pick the nominee. There's a lot else they don't do. For example, they don't show the truth of Barack's total inability to carry an important state. He totally failed to get Ohio's Democrats on-board the Kool-Aid Express. There's no way during the general election he could get Dems, I's, and Repugs on-board.

It's been only 8 weeks since Iowa but the public is finally getting the chance to see that the shrieking hordes of star-struck American Idol groupies really don't understand you need more than plagiarized - er, sorry, loaned - speeches and an Amen bench to run the free world.

All suit and no substance may work on Entertainment Tonight, where the most substantive topic is Britney's [lack of] panties. But out there in the real world - you know, the REAL real world, not the MTV Real World - substance really does matter.

I know that sucks, but it's something adults know all too well. Maybe once Barack moves up to long pants and an actual policy or two he can sit at the grown-up table. In the meantime, he's a cute little fad.

I am waiting for the latest Zogby poll.

You know what? Wyoming is Cheney country, so this might actually go to Clinton afterall. Republicans must stick with Republicans...

The WIN felt great for us Clinton supporters.

I wonder if the DNC will continue with this dumb election process in the future? (proportioning the delegates). Hillary would be much closer if it had been winner take all. I haven't figured the totals, but I understand she'd be better off.

Rae

You can do the math any way you want, but neither candidate will have the necessary delegates to win the nomination. The bottom line, BEING AHEAD DOES NOT MAKE YOU A WINNER IN THIS CONTEST.

Isn't that in the NFL rulebook, as well?

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Why just daily polls - why not hourly polls?

With winner take all Clinton will have 1721 pledged delegates including Florida & Michigan and Obama will have 1142. Obama will be gone by now. Not only that if the electoral vote method is used, Hillay will have 263 votes and Obama 190. Only 270 votes are needed to win.
I do not know why media is not bringing it up.

"I do not know why media is not bringing it up."

um, let's see.... perhaps they are not bringing it up because it's not relevant?

the rules of the primary were clearly stated, all candidates agreed to them. quite clearly obama is ahead based on those rules. you can argue that the rules are unfair/undemocratic/anti-clinton and that any number of other methods support her victory, but it only matters in the parallel universe you seem to inhabit.


HILLARY FIGHTS BACK

And we will continue to fight for her!
Thank you TX, Thank you Ohio, Thank you RI.

VICTORY SOON!

It does not matter who is ahead, it really does not. The rules everyone is so fond of quoting say it takes 2025 delegates (actually 2024) to win the nomination. Neither one of the candidates has that number and if the math is done, neither one will going into the convention.The people are starting to speak volumes and the Obama people are acting like spoiled children. "Any poll that doesn't show Obama with his double digit lead is bogus." That is a quote from this blog, on what exactly is that based?; a desire for it to be true? We are all part of the Democratic Party and have very similiar ideals. Do I want Hillary to win? Yes,for a dozen reasons that I do not have room to list here, however, in November, I will vote the Democrat that is on the ticket. This is not a game, nor a popularity contest. You know, I could probably survive 4 more years of Republicans ( what choice would there be?), what scares the living daylights out of me is the fact that the next President will probably pick 2 or more Supreme Court Jusices. I for one cannot imagine what this nation would look like with 2 more Antonine Scalias or John Roberts on the bench. It is time for Democrats to tone down the rhetoric on one another, let the voting continue and then pick the candidate that is most likely to beat McCain in November. To my mind that candidate is Hillary.

I dont know you but I love what you just said. Thanks you spoke millions!

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Someone needs to explain to TPM's recently hired poll-monkies that polls fluctuate constantly in addition to having margins of error and different methodologies. What matters is the overall trend and intelligent interpretation of the polls.

Reporting each new poll to generate sensationalism, page views, and ad revenue, is exactly the sort of "news" people find so revolting in the MSM. If that's where TPM is headed, it's got nothing on the blogs of large establishments or other blogs like Huffington post.

Did TPM really need to hire two cut-and-paste poll monkies? Where are the smart bloggers TPM has hired to generate quality? Haven't seen them since the De Lay and Attorney Gate days.

Even Josh's blog quantity and quality are way down. Aside from snark and parroting what the MSM and other bloggers are already saying, and providing a forum for the sort of unintelligent argument that arises from yellow journalism, what has TPM done for readers lately?

To all those Obama hopefuls, all I got to say is wake up from your dream and come back to reality. The only truth is that Hillary is the best candidate by far. If Obama had been the one lagging behind Hillary after 11 consecutive losses, he would not have had a chance to come back like Hillary did last night. Not even praying yo Allah would have helped him! Thank God that our Founding Fathers clearly prepared for this by leaving it up to the delegates to decide since afterall we all are part of the "exciteable masses" that vote out of emotions and not knowledge. Obama people jump off the band-wagon and support knowledge, experience, the true leader-Hillary Rodham Clinton. Like an old man said-"An empty trash can makes a lot of noise," which is Obama's principle. It's amazing how all that gibberish can attracy such a large "exciteable mass."

By the way, congratulations Lady-O on buying off the media for your candidate you've done such a perfect job! Did any of you noticed how this morning most of the media gave little importance to Hillary's wins in the 3 states yet, when Obama wins they won't stop talking about it for days! But regardless of the money that his campaign has, its helped little in securing the nomination! Obama, not even good enough for VP!

Hillary, way to go girl! Keep up the good work and see you in the Novemeber elections where you will certainly win the presidency!

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Don't troll such stupidity. It's not helpful to anyone.

I think today's BREAKING NEWS might slow her MO for awhile...she lied to the American ppl!!

It was her camp that spoke to the Canadian Govt, not Obama's.

Unbelievable.

And now she has ties to Rezkos co-defendants...taking money from 3 out of 5 of them...but she has NO IDEA who the guy is...give me a break!!

Ya, way to go girl!! Keep up the Good Work!

Hillary appeals to loyal bread and butter Democrats. Obama does not. To disenfranchise those voters will be political suicide for Howard Dean and the DNC. They may well stick with the archaic view that the delegate total - minus Florida and Michigan actually is meaningful. If they do and Obama is the nominee we can look forward to seeing President McCain in the oval office next January - as - Obama is a weak flawed candidate who cannot win in a General Election.

If TPM sucks so bad, why are you wasting your time posting here?

As far as polls go, we have watched the polls jump up and down, with many of them being discredited on elections day (Zogby, anyone?)....I pay some attention to Survey USA and the so called
"poll of polls"....Those both show trends in Hillary's favor. It will be interesting to see how Obama tries to regain the momentum, not sure if their strategy today os going to fire up the faithful..."Hillary is the most secretive politician in America today..." Wow, that's inspiring stuff!!

Let me just say once again.... it sucks being beaten by a woman...doesn't it? And for all you women who voted for Hussein Obama Shame on YOU!

Now that Hillary has won three primaries in a row, it's time for Obama to do the classy thing and withdraw from the race.
Even now with winner take all Clinton will have 1721 pledged delegates including Florida & Michigan and Obama will have 1142. Obama would have been gone by now. Not only that if the electoral vote method is used, Hillary will have 263 votes and Obama 190. Only 270 votes are needed to win

Winner Take All

Clinton Obama
Alabama 52
Alaska* 13
Arizona 56
Arkansas 35
California 365
Colorado 46
Connecticut 48
Delaware 15
DC 14
Florida 210
Georgia 87
Hawaii* 20
Idaho* 18
ILL 153
Iowa* 31
Kansas* 32
Lousina 56
Maine* 24
Maryland 57
Mass 93
Michigan 156 0
Minn* 72
MO 72

Nebraska* 24
Nevada* 25
New Hampshire 18
NJ 107
NM 26
NY 232
ND 13
Ohio 130
OK 38
PA
RI 21
SC 37
Tn 68
TX 126
Utah 23
Vermont 15
VA 83
WA 78
WV
Wisconsin 74
Wyoming




Total 1721 1142

Now that Hillary has won three primaries in a row, it's time for Obama to do the classy thing and withdraw from the race.
Even now with winner take all Clinton will have 1721 pledged delegates including Florida & Michigan and Obama will have 1142. Obama would have been gone by now. Not only that if the electoral vote method is used, Hillary will have 263 votes and Obama 190. Only 270 votes are needed to win

Winner Take All

Clinton Obama
Alabama 52
Alaska* 13
Arizona 56
Arkansas 35
California 365
Colorado 46
Connecticut 48
Delaware 15
DC 14
Florida 210
Georgia 87
Hawaii* 20
Idaho* 18
ILL 153
Iowa* 31
Kansas* 32
Lousina 56
Maine* 24
Maryland 57
Mass 93
Michigan 156 0
Minn* 72
MO 72

Nebraska* 24
Nevada* 25
New Hampshire 18
NJ 107
NM 26
NY 232
ND 13
Ohio 130
OK 38
PA
RI 21
SC 37
Tn 68
TX 126
Utah 23
Vermont 15
VA 83
WA 78
WV
Wisconsin 74
Wyoming




1721 1142

Thank you to all who voted for Hillary in Ohio, R.I., and Texas. Now send Hillary $5. It's the going ask for all of her supporters who are not in that higher income tax bracket that is supporting Obama. Everyone can help...

Kozmik,

Get off the sauce! Which swing state did Obama win? Waiting . . . . Okay, Iowa. He was big in Eastern Iowa! That's the state where you need only to stay somewhere for three days to participate. Hmm. 3 days, Eastern Iowa - across river from Illinois. Gee, how did the Obama staff pull that one off?

You wish to question me? Go ahead. I live in Davenport, Iowa. Precinct 23! There are approximately 46 African Americans in my precinct. But there were over 100 at my caucus. Hmm.

There's some of that good change you seek in politics. Perhaps it is change. Chicago politicians used to have the dead vote!

Hillary won all the big states except Illinois , which count towards victory in the general election. Getting delegates was just a game to get more people registered as democrats. That will be very useful in the general election .Obama won a whole bunch of small states and that also Caucus states. There are no Caucuses in the general election. The electoral vote method gives more advantage to the big states and that is the way the constitution was set up so that states with larger populations have more say in the selection of the next President.
Even now in Texas , Hillary won Texas in the Primary and Obama won in the Caucus part of the election. Nowhere else in the world , Caucuses are done to run any election . Caucuses can easily be manipulated by hiring a lot of volunteers for $100 to $1000 for one or two week period. These paid volunteers then bring all their friends to come to attend the Caucus and the candidate who spent the most money for hiring paid volunteers wins the Caucus. Since Obama raised more money , he spent more on hiring these paid volunteers mostly university students and unemployed workers and this is why he won all the caucus states. These are only games that Obama has been playing to win a large number of small caucus states and other states where he was able to outspend Hillary 4 to 1 .
The GAMES are now over.
The election in November is the real thing .The winner takes all the electoral votes in any state even though he wins by only one vote in that state. No more Caucuses and no more 4 to 1 money advantage to one candidate over the other. The Obama supporters should now wake up and gracefully nominate Hillary Clinton, as she has already won all the big states . Obama’s inexperience clearly shows here but it is too late for him. Hillary has 263 electoral votes from all the states she has won. Obama has 190 electoral votes. Do not feel bad Mr. Obama. You will still be the Vice Presidential candidate and sooner you realize that the sooner we will start getting ready for the Republicans.

It's funny, Martin Luther King said to judge folks by their character, not the color of their skin, I know Hillary has always done that, I guess the blacks are guilty of what they accuse whites of, hmmmmm!

It's funny, Martin Luther King said to judge folks by their character, not the color of their skin, I know Hillary has always done that, I guess the blacks are guilty of what they accuse whites of, hmmmmm!

Of course you have to count both Florida & Michigan. The DNC can't possibly continue the foolishness of not allowing over 5,000,000 citizens votes to be heard as opposed to 10,000 in some caucus states where "victory " was heralded. Obama who seems to do well where party activists are the only ones who have the time or patience to attend a caucus has not done well in crucial fall states and was on the Florida ballot along with John Edwards. Hillary won Florida the first time and will do so again either now and/or in the fall election.Obama did not take Florida,will not take it in a second round,and is doubtfull to carry it in a general election

Nevada. We here in Nevada are western and we held caucuses. Hillary won.

A Must Read For Hillary.

Look at the horrible crap that this Obama website is saying about Mrs. Clinton. She should be made aware of this as soon as possible before the entire campaign falls off the cliff because of the rotten lies on this blog called http://www.matrix-evolutions.com. It starts with:

We endorse Barack Obama as the next president of the United States.
This is the most important election America will ever have, possibly the last if Obama is not elected.

The Revolutionary Party derives its politics from the equation for evolution we have imprinted on the flag. This function, which underpins our thinking, has been accepted by science for the last eighty years and we trust in it as well as true religious believers trust in God. Mathematics doesn’t lie. An analysis based on the equation indicates that the so-called war on terror will inexorably ratchet up to world war, a genuinely terrifying thought given a world heavily armed with nuclear weapons. For that reason we support Barack Obama as the only real anti-war candidate.

Hillary? In our opinion, she is the more all round competent candidate and has been upended by Obama to a great degree because he is trim and youthfully enthusiastic. But before Hillary came Bill, which should cause us to stop and think.

The value of our mathematics based analysis lies in its ability to objectively distinguish between the good guys and the bad guys. The technical aspects of the analysis make it slow reading for those without a science background, so we will give its conclusions first here and save the detailed reasoning for later.

Put simply, the Clintons are what is known in the political science textbooks as populists, those who achieve political success by playing to the people, to their needs and pains and wants. But there is a difference between patter and delivery. We are all familiar with artificial soda. The Clintons are like an artificial banana split, very likable, but with no real food value.

Recall President Clinton and his first lady. Then America’s favorite political couple sang a song of health care delivery, but delivered rather on prison construction and on the number of police put on the streets. The Pew Report that came out the end of February said that one American in a hundred is locked up in a prison or jail. To put this into better perspective, the report said that America has 7 million people in jail or otherwise under the control of the penal system. This is 16 times more per capita than the communist People’s Republic of China, where, we are told, there is no freedom or human rights. Clinton legislature took America to the highest prison population in the world, a statistic historically associated with police states like Stalinist Russia and apartheid South Africa. This is not to say that America is a police state, of course, for if it were you’d have heard about it on the evening news.

Also notably absent in the media is another creation of the Clintons, the near million homeless people that wander the streets of Sacramento and Las Vegas and our other big cities. This sharp upsurge in homelessness came about inarguably as a result of Clinton legislature that ended LBJ’s war on poverty by terminating effective social protections for out of work people, something many more will become more familiar with as the stock market collapses from the cost of the war and the recession takes hold in full force.

What the Clintons did with prisons and police and welfare protection and NAFTA and failed to do with health care very much pleased the moneyed class and the conservatives. Our technical analysis objectively shows the Republican social and fiscal conservatives to be bad guys because their relationship to the working class and middle class is basically that of master to servant. This fact is also muted by populist politicians like the Clintons whose tax returns, were they to be made public, would show that they are members in good standing of the moneyed class too.

This deep secret of class control and abuse is also kept under wraps by the media, whose personalities are hired and controlled by the moneyed class. Other than the few raisins stirred into in the poison muffin of TV to make it seem fair, media people who don’t keep the secret of class control and the unhappiness of most of us that derives from it don’t last long on their jobs or are not hired to begin with.

The ones who do make the cut endlessly spout the lies of the so-called American Dream in one form or another. The power of the media to control people’s thoughts and actions in conformity with American ideology is difficult to assess for people who get their information primarily from the media, which is most people. This power of media to control thinking was dramatically illustrated towards the end of WWII in Germany just before the fall of Berlin as the Allied and Russian troops converged on the city. Most Germans even in those final moments still believed Hitler’s media propaganda that they were still winning the war.

In our own times, hidden by the media from public sight are facts about life readily observable even by doing something as simple as riding public transportation. Here the observer notes that the common people are unhappy, fear and personal failure showing clearly on their faces and in their behaviors. This effect of control and abuse in the workplace and at school is not made clear from TV where all the media personalities act through their endlessly smiling and bubbly days to show to the audience that America really is a happy place, the steady stream of mass murders in schools, workplaces and malls not able to be kept out of the news notwithstanding.

And much as the ugly facts of our present existence are air brushed out in the media, so also is the future we realistically face. Not made clear is that the dollar is fast becoming as worthless as the paper it is printed on to keep the war going. Or that the stock market and the housing market will soon halve their value giving those who have been spared homelessness and jail to date a taste of these hells on earth firsthand. The Clintons will not care because they are a part of the apparatus that brought us to where we are at in America today.

Hillary should be given credit for being an ambitious and a profoundly adept social climber and a very talented actress, our American Evita. We have no problem applauding her for her personal successes. But she is never going to go against the wishes of the money class that created her and Bill and supported these two as their adorable political puppets. She will not stop this war.

Yes, she says she will, despite her voting for the war. And, of course, there are those of you that think that Hillary would never lie to us. But Bill said he would never lie to us, too. And he said it so well that I yet don’t believe he lied to us about Monica. Monica who? She never existed. That is how good an actor Bill is. And this suggests that his mate is no less of a self-serving liar.

Of course, transgressions are relative. Yes, the flag pin wearing conservatives are more disgusting than the Clintons. Who of us is not totally revulsed by the smell of a public rest room emanating from the Bible squeezing, boy hustling conservative senator from Idaho caught with his pants down? Nobody has caught Bill at something that viscerally gross yet. Still, what character is there in a first family when the head of the most powerful nation on earth sticks a penile object, not even his own, up some college kid’s vagina? If the Clinton presidency were a movie, they would not be playing the Star Spangled Banner in the background during that particular scene.

And to be completely and totally unkind – and very logical -- doesn’t it make you wonder about the guy’s wife? Really, does any intelligent female over the age of 22 think that Hillary actually felt bad about Bill and Monica? Judging from observables, our educated guess is that is Hillary is lesbian, a married one, not that unusual in modern America. If Hillary was mad about anything with Monica, it was that she didn’t get a shot at her too. Watch one of her girlfriends surfacing soon to clarify Hillary’s preference as to penile object.

The smiling Clintons are so phony and odd in this area that one would not be surprised to find that the unconfident Chelsea Clinton developed as such as a result of some form of child abuse. Chelsea does not look happy. Neglect by the Clintons is hardly to be overlooked as this ambitious pair had better things to pay attention to in their furious political rise to the top than their daughter. And sexual abuse is not to be totally ruled out either given Bill’s sexual tastes.

The best bet to end the war and end our American style police state is to vote for Barack Obama. Not for Hillary, who is sufficiently self-serving and devious that one would not be surprised to see her team up with Huckabee on a national reconciliation ticket to satisfy her political ambition. Hopefully Obama will not be removed by the ruling class by assassination or some such stratagem. But if so, and we dearly hope not, the Revolutionary Party is ready to offer a sensible replacement candidate. If enough people get in touch to say they are interested, I did run for President in 2000 as a write-in candidate and would consider it again. But only in the event that Obama is derailed by the conservatives, which we very much fear because these people would do anything to retain power.

Please quick tell somebody on Hillary’s campaign staff what is going on with these trashy Obama sites.
Martha Turner

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