There's little doubt that this manufactured controversy has hurt him, but I think he's taken the right corrective actions. I suspect we will see a bump in 24-48 hours in his numbers.

I realize these poll numbers were released today, but isn't that a bit soon to gauge if his speech had an impact? What time frame do these polls cover?

Yawn. Here's the transcript from Obama's appearance on Nightline last night. A much more interesting read:

http://abcnews.go.com/Nightline/Vote2008/story?id=4480133&page=1

I find it amazing that it is even remotely possible that McCain is ahead of either Democrat right now. THis should be a slam-dunk for the Democrats, but it isn't.

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Obama now leads Clinton 47% to 42%. Yesterday, Obama led 45% to 44% (see recent daily results). These results are based nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. Just one night of polling is included since Obama’s speech and that single night result is not much different from the four-day average. The reason for today’s Obama bounce is that Friday night’s results have rolled out of the four-day sample. Following the initial media frenzy over Pastor Wright, Friday’s results were the single worst night of polling for Obama since the Primary Season began.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html

Let's play "pick a poll".

The Rasmussen Poll taken 3/16 indicates a 7 point Obama lead right after the Wright video.

The Gallup poll shows at 7 point Clinton lead after the speech.

How can they both be right?

More likely, they're both wrong...

I don't think they'll be showing the Rasmussen daily tracking poll as it doesn't fit into the narrative they want.

I used to love HRC, now, I think she IS a monster.

Drop out Obama.

It is over.

We need a nominee and Clinton is the one that can win the general.

Yep, Rasmussen is a better one for Obama, though it didn't show any gain last night either. I think he'll bounce back within the next week or so...but this ongoing battle is definitely hurting both D candidates in terms of a GE matchup. For God's sake, McCain is so vulnerable...we need to start turning our attention to him.

I don't see why Josh is so surprised at Clinton's surge. You could see the signs trending towards Clinton for the last two weeks. This has been happening all the time during this campaign but Obama can usually stem Clinton by winning another caucus or primary and the whole process seems to start all over again, Clinton starts rising. The question is will her rise stick this time since their are no caucus/primaries scheduled until Pennsylvannia where it appears that she will win by a whopping margin. Will No. Carolina be Obama's firewall? That seems to be crumbling. What about Florida/Michigan? These are very interesting times, where the wheel of fortune stops no one knows.

Please---I implore you---I beg you---do not let this story die---please let the chips fall wherever---do not turn loose of this---for the sake of hillary---please, please, run another post tomorrow and friday in big headlines regarding the daily gallup tracking poll. Do not clutter it with any references to rasmussen----just the raw data from gallup. Did i mention in big headlines?

I dare you.

Well, as Obama's pastor would say, the chickens have come home to roost.

John McCain went to Iraq with his best pal Joe Lieberman and claimed that Shiite Iran is arming Sunni Al Qaeda. Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton has endorsed John McCain for Commander in Chief, ahead of Senator Obama.

Hillary is the new Lieberman.

I've said this when Obama was up and when he is down - NATIONAL POLLS ARE MEANINGLESS!!! 75% of the states have already voted. C'mon!!!!

Some chunk of the AA vote? Quite a big chunk, I would think. I expect AA turnout for Hillary would be down 10%, maybe even more, from Kerry's numbers. She's made herself toxic in the AA community. Good luck winning Ohio and other swing states that way.

PPP (D) 03/15 - 03/16 597 LV 56 30 Clinton +26.0

And Hillary's moved up to 26+ in Penn. Maybe she can not just win by 10 but by 30 and pick up more delegates and popular vote than ever expected!

Grrrreat!

Some interesting reading on Wright from the LA Times.

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-wright19mar19,1,2197340.story

Impact from speech? 1. Obama in effect admits to lying, 2. Obama admits to funding and participating in a racist and America hating church for 20+ years, 3. Obama instead blames America.

Obama is no more qualified to be president than someone who has been a member of a KKK supporting church or group for 20+ years. Any less sanction is simply affirmative action to accept his flawed character and judgement for the sake of his skin color. It can't be for his message as the more we find out about him, the more we see his lies, his trickled out disclosures, and corrections.

Anyone supporting Obama is also thus accepting Obama's racist and America hating religious fervor and character. If you argue otherwise, how do you discount or allow for his 20-year affiliation with Trinity Church? Would you be as forgiving of someone White with a similar racist and hate America affiliation. Or, do you give Obama a pass because he is Black?

Everytime TPM posts one of these I ask them to stop. First of all the reporting of these polls is exactly what leads to claims of bias. Today there were two tracking polls released: Rasmussen and Gallup. One showed movement for Clinton the other for Obama. When only one gets coverage the other side will think its unfair.

Second, the coverage of these polls is not very good. The pollsters themselves say that the results from a single day are not very indicative. At the very least please, please, please give us the last few numbers so we can see the trend. After all isn't that the point of a tracking poll?

Pollsters make money on polls. These insta polls say nothing about the state of the race. If California were voting today, Obama would have narrowed the gap or might have won. Capische. The American people have spoken, Obama has won 30 states to Hillary's 14 and he has more pledged delegates. Truth is that if Obama were a white male and Hillary were not a Clinton, strong calls would have come for her to drop out of the race and unify the party. The mainstream media and corrupt influences in the Democratic party are propping up the candidacy of a woman that a broad cross section of this country would sooner see go away and retire her LIES, MANIPULATION & DECEIT to the scrap heap of political history. AMERICA has said no to the FASCIST IN A PANT SUIT.

National polls are interesting to the extent that they gauge to some extent the public sentiment about a candidate, but they don't seem worth much for a) primaries which are local and b) the general election which is governed by the electoral college.

For me polls are just ways to see how the public is reacting to recent news cycles. The evidence, however, is simply a matter of corroboration. Causality is another thing altogether...

I WANT TO FIX HILLARY CLINTON FOR STAYING WITH BILL WHEN SHE SHOULD HAVE DIVORCED HIM OVER:
1. HIS ANTIMASTURBATION
2. HIS CHEATING ADULTERY
ALSO IM AGAINST HER NOT LISTENING TO ME ABOUT VOTING AGAINST THE ANTI POKER BILL (PHONE CALLS, LETTERS) AND RECEIVING FUNDING FROM HEALTH INSURANCE COMPANIES WHEN THEY ARE ALREADY OVERCHARGING AND AGE DISCRIMINATING. I ALSO BELIEVE LIKE JOE LIEBERMAN THAT BILL CLINTON SHOULD HAVE BEEN IMPEACHED AFTER ILLEGALLY CHEATING ON HIS WIFE.

Hillary goes into the convention with the general election poll numbers moving in her direction, do you think super delegates are going to line up behind Obama just because 'we've already had the accountabilty moment'?

Guess again.

Obama finally decided to admit he had heard these sermons, or sermons like those of Wright to avoid everyone running around trying to dig up footage of him sitting there. That is probably too worrisom for him so he felt it was better to just admit he'd hear those rants.

But why isn't anyone talking about Obama's poor judgment in taking his children to that church and allowing them to be brainwashed by HATE SPEECH since they were born.

Most black children growing up today have a chance at living in a world that knows very little racism and prejudice. A lot of the younger blacks can't relate to what their parents or grandparents had to endure and they can have a better life because of that, to live without being corrupted by hate and racism. Let them read about black history, yes. Teach them about what was wrong before. But don't instill racism and hate in them to grow up in a world where the majority of young blacks don't operate at that level.

This was disgraceful for Obama and his wife to do. I heard Joe Scarborough say he thought it was smart to join the most popular church to get more votes if you were a politician. And they (Obama & his wife) apparently did it because that church had a big membership and because they wanted to get elected to Ill. senate and prove they were "black enough".

What does sacrificing your children for political expediency show regarding the type of judgment you exercise?

You're love of America doesn't sound any different from the brownshirts that have (and still) support George Bush.

The outrage of phony patriots like you is one of the most toxic strains of politics in America. It is almost indistinguishable from classic variants of fascism.

People like you disgust me. You disgust me.