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Exit Polls: In Ohio, Late-Breakers Favor Hillary By 11 Points
While we're waiting for the Ohio results, which are too close to call, here's an interesting number from the exit polls: Hillary won by 11 points among voters who made up their minds in the last three days, 55%-44%.
This suggests the possibility that the Obama-NAFTA-Goolsbee story moved votes in the state, but who knows.
One other key number: Hillary is winning by 11 points among white men, who had been going for Obama, which is probably a reflection of the state's larger working class vote.
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Wait for it....
March 4, 2008 8:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
looks like Ohio will go to Hilary. I hope BO stays close...
March 4, 2008 8:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe I'm remembering wrong, but it seems like voters who make up their mind in the last 3 days always break for Clinton. I can only assume there are a lot of people out there who flirt with trying something new but then ultimately decide to stick with something familiar.
March 4, 2008 8:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here in NH it was the same. Late deciders went for Hillary. Some of the reasons I heard...
"I like both. It's not easy to choose."
"I want the Democratic candidate to win. Everyone says that Hillary can't win. I like her, but maybe voting for her is a mistake. So I'll just say I'm undecided." In they end, they voted for Hillary.
March 4, 2008 11:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Does anyone know whether late-breakers have gone for Hillary in other states? I seem to remember they have, in which case there might be another explanation, e.g. that late-breakers tend to be more risk-averse and perceive Hillary as the safer candidate. It might not have anything to with events of the past few days.
March 4, 2008 8:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
And yet again, we have to correct the record.
She always wins late-day deciders, even in states like VA where Obama won big. So arguably, over three days, it is not overwhelming that it would break 55-45 although arguably understandable considering the bad news cycles he has had
March 4, 2008 8:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Looks like a victory for her in Ohio, though I'm not sure the margin is going to net her many delegates. Also, my understanding is that Cleveland will be hand counted so it's results won't be in for quite some time.
March 4, 2008 8:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
51-48 based on exit polling, probably 53/55 with early voting. A win is good for her, but she needed a blowout.
March 4, 2008 8:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
patience, friends. cuyohuga is still open and the early vote went heavily for obama, not clinton, as many expected. you'll see here soon...it's going to be close.
March 4, 2008 8:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
looks like Hillary may tke OH. I hope BO stays close...
March 4, 2008 8:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
I never understood these "undecided" folks.
How in the heck do you truly not make up your mind until you walk into your polling place, or even just a day or two before?
March 4, 2008 8:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Because they would be happy with either one of the choices unlike most commenter here.
March 4, 2008 8:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Then why bother to vote in a primary if it makes no difference to you either way?
March 4, 2008 8:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
My sister swears she really had not made up her mind until the last minute before Maryland's election. She and my brother had decided Hillary's policy positions were better, and my sister began in the booth by choosing Hillary. The next page, however, showed the delegates that would be pledged by this choice, and they included a couple of party hacks my sister knew and despised from the state school board.
She returned to the first page and changed her vote to Obama.
March 4, 2008 8:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's actually the fact that ohio is a strange demographic...there are still white rural folks here who consider themselves dems and use the word "colored" to refer to african americans. i'm just throwing that out there...its a generational gap here that doesn't close so quickly.
March 4, 2008 8:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Because they are goddamn idiots who don't pay attention, and they tend to break for Hillary, because they are goddamn idiots who don't pay attention.
March 4, 2008 8:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Playing the victim proves to be a winning strategy, yet again. Fortunately, that strategy is sure to be a failure in the long run, and only works in these desperate situations.
March 4, 2008 8:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Stephen Fry is currently shooting a huge multi-year series for the BBC TV about the U.S. Asked if he liked Americans, he said he loves everything about Americans except one thing: their capacity for self-pity.
If that's true, the Clintons exemplify the national psyche.
March 4, 2008 8:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bingo! I totally agree. They're voting for a brand.
March 4, 2008 8:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
A brand?
Like Hope and Change?
Si se puede?
Just askin'.
March 4, 2008 8:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
"How in the heck do you truly not make up your mind until you walk into your polling place, or even just a day or two before?"
Well, you have to consider that she wins among the very old. They might have a little trouble with short term memory.
March 4, 2008 8:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
If I could, I'd rate your comment down. That's pretty insulting to suggest that anyone older than 65 who votes (I'm assuming you apply this to the Obama voters as well?) has a memory problem.
March 4, 2008 8:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Lighten up. Should we have a campaign between Hillary and McCain with phones ringing off the hook waking us up at 3 am to signal our impending doom, we're going to need a little levity or a lot of meds.
March 4, 2008 9:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry, I guess it must be the influence of so many "America is doomed if Obama doesn't get the nomination!" posts.
March 5, 2008 1:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
Funny, the religion preference is flipped in OH. People who never go to church are for Clinton and people who always go are for Obama.
March 4, 2008 8:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
This isn't a flip. This is how it has consistently been.
March 4, 2008 8:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have a question which on the surface might seem kind of dumb. These exit polls don't include any early voters, correct?
March 4, 2008 8:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Texas Early voting returns for the 5 largest counties.
Harris County (Houston):
Obama 106,245 63.01%
Clinton 61,646 36.56%
Dallas County:
Barack Obama 65.91% 81,245
Hillary Clinton 33.52% 41,318
Tarrant County (Fort Worth)
Barack Obama 58.86% 50,585
Hillary Clinton 40.91% 35,092
Bexar County (San Antonio)
Obama 44.74% 46,218
Clinton 54.22% 56,013
Travis County (Austin):
Obama 63,154 64.97%
Clinton 33,401 34.36
Net result of about 110,000 votes in favor of Obama. That will be almost impossible for her too overcome.
March 4, 2008 8:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Holy crap! I'm shocked by how well Obama is doing in Texas so far...
March 4, 2008 8:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
If I'm remembering correctly, the day-of deciders have tended to go to Hillary, but the 2-3 day before deciders tended to go with Obama.
Keep in mind also that the Clinton campaign tends to go negative with misleading or outright false fliers right before election day. See, for example, the fliers from New Hampshire that claimed Obama was weak on choice. Outright false, but may have helped sway late deciders, and after the election, neither the Obama campaign nor the media is interested in following up.
March 4, 2008 8:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Texas done turned Blue! In Obama's favor too!
This is good news....
for...
March 4, 2008 8:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary, because she wouldn't have won it anyways?
March 4, 2008 8:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS!!! FOR HILLARY CLINTON!!!
More seriously though, the early voting returns for Obama look very promising. Do you have any source? link? Thx
March 4, 2008 8:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Did anybody notice that CNN has Obama at 58 and Clinton at 41 in TX while TPM has the Clinton at 58 and Obama at 41 in TX? One of these sources has the names transposed! Which is correct?
March 4, 2008 8:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
The official site corresponds to CNN's numbers.
March 4, 2008 8:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Echoing others, I ask just who these late-breaking voters are. And furthermore, do we know how many of them there are?
I hope someone will remember that the real story isn't that things are in a dead heat now, but that Clinton's double-digit leads in both big states has drizzled away in a few weeks.
Too much "dailiness" being peddled around here, I think.
March 4, 2008 8:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
am I the only one who gets dizzy with all the break downs--- you can listen to all sorts of these stats and then be totally flummoxed by the result....
Anyway- it does look like Ohio goes for Clinton. If she doesn't get Texas-- will it be enough for her to stay in? Does she really think he is that much of a "paper tiger"?
March 4, 2008 8:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Someone else pointed out on this site today that perhaps Hillary is the real paper tiger in the race, having been the anointed front-runner for so long -- until the voting started -- and she has been behind in pledged delegates ever since.
March 4, 2008 8:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
wow, those early voting results look great for Obama! Awesome news!
He may again be the net winner in delegates today!
I've said it before, there are only two questions left for the Hillary Clinton Campaign:
1. When (not if) will she concede the nomination to Obama?
2. How low will she go in the meantime?
March 4, 2008 8:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good thing I got beer in the fridge, cuz this might be a late night.
Which is excellent news!! For my wife!!
March 4, 2008 8:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good news for Hillary??? Just Wondering.
March 4, 2008 8:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Union members voted for Hillary in Ohio, even after so much endorsements from Unions for Obama. It is possible for Hillary to get double digit win Ohio.
March 4, 2008 8:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary will carry Ohio 49.7% to 48.6%. She will make no worthwhile gains in the delegate count battle for the nomination.
March 4, 2008 8:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey Froggie what is your source?
March 4, 2008 8:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
These are from the county election websites. I have links to each in my blog entry below:
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/03/interpreting-texas-election-re.php
March 4, 2008 8:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary's doing very well! This whole emphasis on "winning" and "losing" is so phallocentric. If a man was doing as well as she is, he'd already be the nominee. Just imagine if Obama was the husband of a former President--he'd be leading.
--General Gloria Steinem
March 4, 2008 8:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Norah on MSNBC gushes about Hillary "winning back" her base of blue collar voters. How, exactly, do you win back voters when you have just blown a 20 point lead in two weeks? Just asking.
March 4, 2008 8:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm sick of this goddamn coverage. LISTEN PEOPLE! HILLARY LOSING HER 20-30 POINT LEAD IN A MATTER OF WEEKS IS NOT A COMEBACK, IT IS NOT MAKING PEOPLE THINK TWICE, IT IS LOSING BIG!!!
March 4, 2008 8:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Do the exit poll try to account for the early voters?
March 4, 2008 8:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary won big among those for whom race mattered. Doesn't that mean she got the racist vote?
March 4, 2008 8:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Unless those people for whom race mattered were racial minorities voting for Hillary. (Help. I'm getting confused here.)
March 4, 2008 9:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Burnt Orange Report has a good spreadsheet table with results - not updated as fast as TPM, but good nonetheless
http://www.burntorangereport.com/
March 4, 2008 8:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hate to break it to you, Gloria, but Obama is the one who is "leading". As in, "being a leader". Hillary has gone negative and will split this party in two before she does the right thing and concedes. she is too far behind! Sorry. Suck it up, compose yourself, and find something else to do for the next 8 years. How about a Cabinet position?
March 4, 2008 8:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
In re: Ohio.
Were we not told that the latest voter returns would come from urban areas that are Obama territory?
March 4, 2008 8:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Union members voted for Hillary in Ohio, even after so much endorsements from Unions for Obama. It is possible for Hillary to get double digit win Ohio.
March 4, 2008 8:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Union members voted for Hillary in Ohio, even after so much endorsements from Unions for Obama. It is possible for Hillary to get double digit win Ohio.
March 4, 2008 8:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Union members voted for Hillary in Ohio, even after so much endorsements from Unions for Obama. It is possible for Hillary to get double digit win Ohio.
March 4, 2008 8:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tweety tells us FEAR TRUMPS HOPE. I'm looking forward to the lawn signs.
March 4, 2008 8:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
God, I hope our electoral process is at least slightly more complicated than a game of Rock, Paper, Scissors.
March 4, 2008 8:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
My understanding is that exit polls are just day-of. The 800K people who voted early in Texas did not participate as far as I've seen reported.
March 4, 2008 8:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks, that's basically my understanding too, but I haven't seen anyone definitively confirm this. My assumption is that exit polls are only day-of, but it's in the realm of possibility that a mechanism exists to poll early voters as well.
March 4, 2008 9:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm calling Texas for Obama right now. The 1% reporting is actually the statewide early election returns and Obama has a 100K vote advantage. The early voters this year were more than the total vote in 2004! There is no way Hillary makes that up with the votes of today.
March 4, 2008 8:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
BO looks poise to take TX, but i dont want to get my hopes up
March 4, 2008 9:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Regarding OH returns, Obama's parts of the state will report last. This was true even before Cuyahoga county extended its voting.
March 4, 2008 9:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
John McCain clinches the Republican Nomination.
THIS IS GREAT NEWS FOR HUCKABEE!
March 4, 2008 9:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am an Obama guy now. I am increasingly worried that the slimey tactics of the Clinton campaign will smear Obama enough to get her the nimination. The 3am phone call business was garbage, feeding the McCain talking points. The Kroft interview was brilliantly described by Howard Fineman at "Machiavellian." She calculated that answer perfectly, to appear to support Obama while leaving the door open for those inclined to think he is actually a wolf in sheeps clothing. Very slimey. All of this is to say that that I will have a hard time voting for her if she is the nominee.
However, voting for McCain got even harder today as he continues to pander to the crazies on the right, while ignoring the center that has supported him forever. In an article that was in the Times today, his claims that Autism comes from vaccines sealed it for me. A play for the religious right; citing evidence that doesn't exist about the correlation between Autism and Thiomerisol (a preservative in some vaccines). WHy does this matter? There are two children in NYC with measles who have not travelled out of the country, suggesting native measles (the MMR vaccine is a favorite of the government conspiracy-types who think that pediatricians are trying to hurt children by injecting poisons that give children autism). Based on so many reasonable positions that McCain takes on social issues (abortion notwithstanding), there is no way he actually believes this. It is pure pandering, with potentially deadly consequences.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/04/us/politics/04autism.html?_r=1&scp=1&sq=mccain+autism&st=nyt&oref
Now to my point. I hope I don't have to vote for Hillary in November, but I will.
birds
March 4, 2008 9:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'll write in Feingold. I can't vote for a fearmonger and I won't vote for despair.
March 4, 2008 9:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
The "late deciders" are the people who in the end just pick the name they have seen before. They consistently have gone to Clinton throughout the entire season.
The idiot pundits trot out this same lame statistic every single time.
March 4, 2008 9:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Winning the racist vote is EXCELLENT NEWS!! For HILLARY!!!
March 4, 2008 9:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is just weird. I'm listening to McCain's acceptance speech on CNN -- quietly -- in the background, as I sit by the computer which is about six feet from the television...
...and McCain keeps sounding like Hillary, to me. Not the words, no, no -- not the words. The voice.
I have to keep glancing up at the TV to be sure it's still a man talking.
March 4, 2008 9:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm an Obama supporter, but I think Clinton is going to clean his clock in Ohio. Hard to really believe that Ohioans are so superficial that they would be persuaded simply by a silly TV ad.
I think there's something deeper going on there. The Bradley effect? Yup. I felt this way about New Hampshire, too. And before Obama began his long winning streak, it was more frequently discussed. Here's an interesting analysis from a favorite blog of mine (I'm in marketing): The Secret Voter in Your Brain.
Key findings:
Probably not the whole story but, again, Obama's winning streak pushed this discussion out of the headlines. I think it's back.
March 4, 2008 10:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Looks like the link didn't work in the Bradley effect post above. Here it is: http://www.neurosciencemarketing.com/blog/articles/voter-brain.htm
March 4, 2008 10:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Anyone hearing when Cuyahoga county will be reporting? Harris county in Texas?
March 4, 2008 10:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
I guess I would have been astounded if Obama had not lost a lot of support based on the NAFTA fracas. It was a terribly embarrassing blunder and I hope that the campaign has learned a lesson about candor.
March 4, 2008 10:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry, I guess it must be the influence of so many "America is doomed if Obama doesn't get the nomination!" posts.
March 4, 2008 11:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Whoops -- this should be further up the thread. Damn the messed-up login. :P
March 5, 2008 1:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
Or could it be she was somehow able to appear on 1) Saturday Night Live, 2) 60 Minutes, and 3) and The Daily Show.
March 4, 2008 11:24 PM | Reply | Permalink