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Dem Registration Hits New Record In Pennsylvania
Democratic registration in Pennsylvania set a new record yesterday, at the close of yesterday's deadline to register for the state's closed primary.
Over 4 million Pennsylvanians are now registered as Democrats, out of 8.2 million total registered voters. Republican and independent registrations both shrank slightly — a possible sign of crossover voters for Barack Obama — while 120,000 previously unregistered people entered the rolls.
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Or crossover "Limbaugh Democrats" looking to keep Hillary in the race longer so McCain can win.
March 25, 2008 9:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
"a possible sign of crossover votes for Barack Obama"
I used to think increased registration and turnout benefits Obama but I think it's becoming more of a neutral factor that benefits both. I am suspecting now that, although I think Independents/Republicans do tend to favor Obama by a solid margin, the Limbaugh effect evens things out.
March 25, 2008 9:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, but new registrations almost certainly favor Obama, and 120k of those is significant. I live in PA, and we've been working hard to bring in new voters.
March 25, 2008 9:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
The GOP spoilers for HRC won't be motivated enough to do this I don't think. In Ohio it was easy, you just showed up at the poll asking for a Dem ballot, here there's paperwork and you have to write down that you're a Democrat:)
March 25, 2008 10:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
Is 120K new registrations really a large number? It doesn't seem significant compared to the total of 4M. I'm sure the 120K favors Obama, but it doesn't sound like enough to make a real difference to me. Does anyone know what the goal for new registrations was?
March 25, 2008 10:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
evie:
It is, and it isn't. In 2004, there were 789,882 ballots cast in the Democratic Primary election. In 2000, it was about 700k. In 1992, the total was about 1.2 million, or some 45% of registered Democrats.
So if you take the 1992 number, it's about 10%. If you take the 1992 percentage, it's about 7%. And if you assume a higher turnout this time around, it probably drops to around 5%. And that's assuming all 120k show up to vote. Scale accordingly.
So it's impressive, and it will help in November. It's likely to have a particular impact at the district level and on delegate allocation, where even small changes in the overall margin can have big impacts. But we're not talking about a huge change in the overall landscape.
March 25, 2008 10:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
I heard a report on NPR yday morning that said 111,000 Dems registered and there was a drop of 13,000 Repub registrations. Good job skdvr369 and thanks for all you do.
Now comes the job of turning them out on election day. I used to live in NJ and I worked in the Great Northeast Philly back in 2004 from the Frankford office. It was a lotta fun taking all kinds of other volunteers from NY, VA, MD, not to mention locals all over the district out to canvass. Even met the actor David Morse, (now playing George Washington on HBO's John Adams) who stopped by to encourage us to keep up the good work. At every stop sign I'd ask people walking by if they'd voted yet, if they said no, I'd say what are you waiting for?
We had a HUGE turnout, took Philly with about 90% of the vote which carried Kerry to a win in PA. Hopefully the good people of Philadelphia, our first capitol, who have always taken our democracy seriously see their duty and give Obama the kind of margin they gave Kerry in November 2004. If they do this race is over.
March 25, 2008 10:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree regarding the Limbaugh effect. How many responsible adults would go to the trouble to change their party affiliation just to play a dirty trick? Sure, maybe a majority of true wingnuts would do it. But moderate Republicans are sick of the direction their party has taken and while they might not have changed affiliation before the primary on their, a massive voter registration effort makes it easy. If Republicans I know are the norm, they will vote Dem in November.
March 25, 2008 10:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
"Is 120K new registrations really a large number? It doesn't seem significant compared to the total of 4M. I'm sure the 120K favors Obama, but it doesn't sound like enough to make a real difference to me. Does anyone know what the goal for new registrations was?"
Less than 800 000 Democrats voted in 2004. Even if we triple the amount 120 000 people are still 5 %, that's rather significant.
March 25, 2008 10:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
As a PA resident, I do not buy the Limbaugh effect taking hold here in PA.
March 25, 2008 10:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
As a NJ resident who lives across the Delaware river from the affluent Bucks county Pa., I believe there is a "Limbaugh" effect.
Our local NPR station WHYY, has reported last week that in Montgomery county alone ( which is next to Bucks) there has been a switch of 5000 party affiliations from republicans to democrats. That was only one county and there are, I think, 67 in Pa. I don't know how much of a difference it would make if republicans are switching sides in all the counties but it is worth taking note.
However, I deal with many Bucks county clients, who are mostly republican,and many of them were doing the same thing. They believe a big win for Hillary will cause more fractures in the Democratic party and a more likely win ( by delegates switching sides) for her.
They also think if Hillary gets the nomination, particularly without the popular vote, that John McCain will win by a landside. I tend to think that could be true but I am just hoping for the best, be it Hillary or Barack!
March 25, 2008 11:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
So 5000 of the 13000 changes were from Bucks? Good to know, I signed up about 50 of them myself and they were sick of W and going to vote Obama. Bucks is heavily Republican, but not in the blue collar, nascar dad kind of way. They are successful and value competence, not partisanship. I don't see them listening to Rush's operation chaos... Hillary even turned out over 1000 at a talk in Blue Bell.
March 25, 2008 4:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is merely anecdotal, but a relative of mine lives in Montgomery County, Pa. She is a (very) moderate, almost apolitical Republican who is extremely unhappy with the war and has taken an interest in Obama. I told her about the deadline to change her registration, not really expecting her to do it, but she told me later that she immediately went out and changed it so that she could vote for Obama. (I'm sure that this was also partly motivated by her strong dislike for Hillary Clinton.)
That being said, it would not surprise me to find that there are Limbaugh disciples out there switching so that they can vote for Hillary. It's a conservative enough region that some professionals have no qualms about displaying their political bias--I remember waiting in a dentist's office some years ago where they had chosen Rush Limbaugh's show as the waiting room audio.
March 25, 2008 4:34 PM | Reply | Permalink