But, but, but, I thought all that matters is Pennsylvania?!

Probably should mention his wins in the Texas caucus negated her delegate pick up during the Texas primary and the 8 point swing as of result of the California counting of independent ballots. The game remains the same.

The Clintons are going to try and convince folks that Pennsylvania is the determinative state. The fact is, no one state or states will be determinative of anything. She's lost 30 of the 44 contests (45 if you want to count the Texas caucus separately). It's the cumulative effect of those losses that has done her in. Unfortunately for her, there are not enough remaining contests to make up the deficit. She settled on a strategy and it backfired. Until the media stops getting lead around by the nose, this thing is going to keep going until the DNC convention in August--which is a disasterous result for the Democratic Party.

I assure you, you will not hear this point made in the MSM.

Notice something about those delegate counts? Most of them are now listing both the total count AND the pledged count. This is major victory.
Also, has anyone noticed that Hillary's "big state" plan isn't working? The media is doing a decent job of pointing out that her victory in Ohio has been effectively wiped out by victories in smaller states. They are doing "the math." So she wins PA? Who cares? He'll earn delegates and popular votes somewhere else.

Hillmentum!

These numbers don't lie. The Clinton folks are many things, but stupid is not one of them. Team Obama I hope is taking into consideration that Hillary is no longer running for the 2008 nomination, but running for the 2012 one.

The REAL story here is that Obama has erased Clinton's lead among superdelegates and, in fact, has more than she does according to most of these media outlets.

The DNC really should make HIllary explain what her plan here is, because short of stealing the nomination, I can't imagine it.

If she is forced to admit that she's counting on convention shenanigans, then they have to make her stop now.

Or risk one of the very real outcomes of this insane continuation, a fractured party and a McCain victory. So many things have dropped about McCain in the last few days and none of them will stick until there's a nominee to run against him.

What exactly is Hillary's plan here? She should tell us.

THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS!!! FOR HILLARY!!!!

You reference "Hillary Clinton's narrow win in the Fourth Congressional District" -- yet according to USA Today's district breakdown, with 100% of votes reported, Obama won the 4th by a margin of 42,636 to 41,768.

http://content.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/results.aspx?sp=ms&rti=r

Did I miss something? Clinton did narrowly win the 1st CD, where it appears that a highly contested Congressional primary brought out a higher white vote than might have otherwise have been expected.

The final delegate division in MS will need to wait until final official count of all ballots. Right now it appears to stand at 19-14, although that could shift to 20-13 if the statewide vote increases by less than 4/10ths of 1 % (a net gain of about 400 votes) when the handful of remaining precincts and any outstanding provisional ballots etc are counted.

Obama will also pick up the additional "unpledged at large" delegate, a slot that will be elected later this spring. Under party rules, this slot will be elected by the delegates elected yesterday, so it is assured of going to an Obama supporter.

"an overall gain of +1 this month"

Plus the eight California delegates, plus several superdelegates this month as well:

Ian Carleton of VT
Everett Sanders of MI
Joyce Brayboy of NC
Carol Fowler of SC
Nick Rahall of WV
Jane Kidd of GA
Joe Wineke of WI

I searched google news, but can't find ANY records of any newly endorsing SDs for Hillary in March.

For kickers, Hillary will also lose Elliot Spitzer's superdelegate vote today. David Patterson -- also a Clinton SD -- will take Spitzer's place, but lose his own SD vote as Lt. Gov, and will be unable to nominate a replacement Lt. Gov. under state laws.

So, that's a 17 delegate shift for Obama in March so far, with another 19 days for Hilllary Clinton to turn off even more SDs with her campaign's behavior.

That's plenty of SDs to cover any possible loss Obama might have in Pennsylvania... and Obama's got big projected leads in both North Carolina and Indiana.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nc/north_carolina_democratic_primary-275.html

http://www.myfoxtoledo.com/myfox/pages/News/Detail?contentId=5981171&version=1&locale=EN-US&layoutCode=TSTY&pageId=3.11.1
http://www.munciefreepress.com/node/18689

Poor Hillary. It'll be all over for her soon...

But that doesn't count!

Hillary: the “Heads She Wins, Tails You Lose” Candidate

Whites who vote for Obama are “mesmerized” by his blackness or his silver tongue, or are voting out of white guilt.

Men who vote for Obama are sexist.

Blacks who vote for Obama are racist, because they’re voting on the basis of race. Blacks don’t count, because getting their votes is “running up the score”; they’re like 4th-quarter touchdown passes when you’re ahead by 30 (except that Obama’s not ahead—see below).

Women who vote for Clinton are neither sexist, nor racist, nor “running up the score,” but rather are testimonies to “empowerment” and are “voicing their frustration.”

Obama must immediately fire anyone in his campaign who says anything bad about Clinton; however, if anyone in Clinton’s campaign makes racially charged comments, Clinton may merely “disagree” with that person.

Obama must both renounce and reject any black person who praises him, no matter the connection to his campaign. Clinton, however, need not renounce and reject what any woman or white person says about Obama, because “that’s not really the same thing.”

Only big states count in the primary, because, as Stephen Colbert says, “we all know that whoever wins the big states in the primary automatically wins them in the general election.”

EXCEPTION: every big state counts except Illinois, because that’s Obama’s home state. Clinton was born there, but that doesn’t matter.

New York, on the other hand, does count, even though it’s Clinton’s home state.

Red states don’t count, except Texas, because Hillary won the Texas primary. Obama won the Texas caucus, and thus more Texas delegates overall, but caucuses don’t count.

Small states don’t count either, especially red ones (see above) and ones with lots of blacks (see above), and Hawaii especially doesn’t count, because Obama was born there; Clinton was born in Illinois, but it doesn’t count (see above).

Florida and Michigan didn’t count, at least at the beginning, because they violated party rules, and all candidates agreed, but now that seating the delegates would be an advantage for Clinton, they do count.

When you take away all the red states, small states, states with lots of blacks (unless they’re big and blue states (and not Illinois)) and add Florida and Michigan, Clinton is ahead.

But really, none of the states count, because the superdelegates should select a nominee based not on the most delegates but rather “experience.” Clinton has a “lifetime of experience,” unlike Obama, whose lifetime doesn’t count. The primary examples of Clinton’s experience, however—the Iraq War vote, the botched Health Care initiative, and the train wreck of a campaign—don’t count.

All things considered, it seems clear that Obama should withdraw immediately.

http://iwillwalkaway.blogspot.com

From Andrew Sullivan.

Kos crunches the math on primaries and caucuses and comes to this conclusion - which is, so far as I can tell, irrefutable:

Obama's lead is about 833,000.

Unless Obama suffers an epic collapse, he should end this contest with a lead in the popular vote, a lead in the pledged delegates, and a lead in the number of states won.
Do the Clintons seriously intend to overturn that?

Obama's delegate lead looks safe. The real story now is about the next 6 weeks. I kinda feel that America is ready to basically tune out the candidates for a Month.....unless of course you live in PA, where that will be impossible. Can you imagine how sick Pennsylvanians will be of Obama and Clinton in about a week or two? I personally am thankful for a break, the 24-hr news cycle is making me nuts.

Barack: Stay on message, and go back to giving speeches at rallies, you are boooooring on TV interviews, the verve is just not coming through.

Hillary: Keep up the negative barrage in the hopes of fatally damaging Barack....with any luck, McCain will win, drag the country further into War and Recession, and you will be all set up for 2012! Your committment to a cause greater than yourself continues to inspire!

Glad to hear that CNN is being responsible on this, but I've heard two comments in the past two days from allegedly liberal sources.

1. Cokie Roberts on NPR Monday morning said that Obama's lead was 50-100 delegates and that it was "essentially a tie". Now, they had to say today after some listener mail that he was actually ahead by more than 100. Too bad they didn't correct the "tie" remark.

2. Alan Colmes (or Colmes as Al Franken puts it) asked in the promo for his Air America show yesterday whether Clinton's comeback would continue or would Obama turn things around. Guess we should just have ignored Wyoming, huh?

PS NPR has become very poor in the news dept. If there were a decent radio competitor, I'd listen to them. Thank goodness my local station plays the BBC at 9 am.

I'm guessing what jweb271 meant was that even when you add in the Super Delegates, Obama is still ahead of Hillary. But you're right: if you just look at SD's, then Hillary is up by ~40 (or a little under).

Has anyone out there seen an estimate on the total number of voters expected to turn out in Pennsylvania?

They had about 800,000 voters back in 2004. Let's assume the enthusiasm of this season kicks that total in 2008 up to one million. Even with a Clinton win of 60/40, she gains only 200,000 votes.

If the fulcrum of Clinton's strategy is to sway the supers with the two-pronged argument of winning the "big" states and the popular vote, she still has, by kos's numbers, a deficit of 633,000 votes, a total which will grow again after Indiana and North Carolina.

I can't imagine this fact won't be punctuated by both the Obama campaign and the MSM after April 22nd.

I cannot wait for Olbermann's Special Comment on the Ferraro mess.

It's fairly evident, as it often is on Election Nights as well, that the media wants the race to continue. At the very least, it will do its best to convey those facts that seem to make it competitive, while underplaying the math game (hence the previous practice of not distinguishing supers). At the very worst, it will "push" the candidate in need of a boost to keep it more competitive thant it would otherwise be. Ugh.

If you're going by the current polls, forget it. Her 16-19 points poll margin will not hold up for the next 6 weeks, witness what happened in OH and TX, where Obama closed very big gaps. PA will be a lot closer than you think, and I would not bet against an Obama win, albeit slim.

I find Hillary comments interesting because have any one else noticed she doesn't actually bring any red states into play for the election. Hillary has only won in DEM's strongholds. With the exception of Ohio (not counting Fl or Mi). All the big states Hillary has won will goto the DEM's any way. I want a person that will change the electoral map. That is way so many DEM's in republican states want OBAMA at the head of the ticket. He gives them the best chance of bring new people to the election. Just change a couple of the states that have been republicans strong holds (i.e. Ga, Mo, Tx, La). OHIO and FLORIDA will be battle ground states for any party rep.

Hillary brings nothing new to the party or the presidential chair. The republicans are going to automatically dig in and the party war begins again. The republicans hate no one more than the CLINTONS. Yes, they beat them at their own game in the '90's but the future is now and this is opportunity to change our electoral map and the world's view.

I don't think OBAMA can put the entire map in play but there are some progreesive area in the country that he will be able to make the republicans defend. with the exceptions of FL & OH name another area that Hillary puts in play.
Now, Imagine the republicans defending TX, MO, NM, NV,GA, LA & SC beside the battleground states of Florida and Ohio. the large population center type cities always goes DEM's anyway. The party gains nothing with Hillary except the republicans want to use her to motive their party base for support. The republicans are unmotivated at this time. Things are so bad, RUSH is calling on the republicans to vote for Hillary - How sick is that. THE EMENY OF MY EMENY IS MY FRIEND!!!

THEY WANT NO PARTS OF OBAMA ON THE TICKET!!!!

I'm trying to figure out how Bill and Hillary Clinton win this argument.

Obama has an insurmountable delegate lead, and will lead in the popular vote.

Hillary Clinton lost. I know it's all but unimaginable to the Clintons, but that's a fact.

The only question remaining is how she finagles stealing this thing, and if the spineless Democratic leadership and base allow her to do that.

Democrats should find some courage and shake the Clintons loose. Really. These people are poison.

Agreed. And how sweet would it be if "states won" was reported along with every reporting of "delegates won" and "popular vote" count.

Why is no one reporting the "RUSH" effect?
Approimately 10% of Hillary's vote was from republicans trying to keep her in the race.

The republicans are trying to choose their opponent. How interesting! Anyone wants to guess why?

Obam is very good politc back round hilary is very good woman:)very nice sites.evden eve nakliyat siteleri
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