Cool. Maybe now Obama isn't winning in delegates and popular vote after all!

Proof of its accuracy is in the pudding - Obama was tanking in Gallup numbers during the Wright flap and surged ahead after his race speech and the Tuzla flap. if that was just quirks, that's pretty darn coincidental.

One more reason for folks to stop waving this tracking poll around. 40 states have voted. Let it go....

Scan today's TPM headlines.

TPM = Clinton surrogate.

Mention Kentucky polls when its 2 months out? Check
Mention any polls in which Obama is ahead? nope
Accuse polls with Obama being ahead? Check

Too bad they haven't had any Wright today.

Survey USA is credible.

Rendell is on Hardball saying Gallup is not credible.

Now I know that TPM is not to be trusted anymore than you can trust the Butcher that keeps his thumb on th scale.

Here is what Eric Omitted from the report;

UPDATE: Hold the, er, phone. I sent Hickman and Margolis a spreadsheet with the Rasmussen Reports daily tracking and they generated comparable charts. Oddly enough, the pattern is almost the mirror opposite of Gallup. On the Rasmussen automated tracking (which reports a four-day rolling averge), Obama does consistently better in the middle of the week, Clinton better on the weekends. Here is the chart of each week:

And here are the average values for each daily release:

I will have a chance to add more thoughts later, but I think the bottom line is that the conflict of the patterns shown by the two pollsters suggests that the apparent day-of-week effects are about differences in poll methodology, not a real variation in voter preferences over the course of the week.

-- Mark Blumenthal

yeah, i knew that long ago.. hee hee hee. You just found out??

We definitely established this a while ago...

Clinton performs well in polls released on Tuesday and Wednesday because they are collected over the weekend. Clinton voters (the so called beer-track blue collar workers) are likely to be home on Friday and Saturday nights in order to answer the phone. Whereas Obama voters are out at the Opera or at the ball or whatever on the weekends and are therefore unavailable to pollsters.

I'm pretty sure you posted on this around Texas and Ohio, because the polls fluctuated then too.

Come on did you really think this was not coming.

Small states that Obama wins does not count
Big states Obama wins does not count
Caucus states that Obama wins does not count
Primary states that Obama wins does not count
People who vote for Obama don’t need president so they don’t count
Supper delegate that endorse Obama are insignificant

Why would you think that Gallup (once it showed Obama leading) would count?

Expect Hillary’s camp to come out against realty because reality DOES NOT COUN.

Gallup has made itself irrelevant even though Mark Penn was pointing to it when Obama was down during the crazy pastor flap

even though pundits have been spinning whole theories based on these volatile micro-shifts

Eric's managed to spin his entire young career out of "micro-shifts"

8-10 points isn't a "micro-shift"...Slept through Charles Franklin's lectures??

I can feel it too Dembillc!

Oh wait, that was just my lunch coming up listening to spin, spin, spin.

When we take over this blog after Clinton wins, they will be the trolls.

Off topic:

Mississippi recalculated and Obama gains another delegate and Hillary loses one. According to Ambinder

Texas: +5 Obama.

+7 delegates without contests. Not a bad week for Obama.

I think its pretty simple, really. Since Hillary's numbers do better between Tuesday - Thursday, rather than between Friday - Monday (when Obama does better), what that shows us is that Hillary is more electable, since Election Day takes place on a Tuesday. I can't believe you people were so ignorant.

"Obama's Alliance With McCain, And How It All Fell Apart";

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/03/30/AR2008033002401_pf.html

Ah, the unity lasted a week.

When Clinton wins, you will be the trolls.

The discussion here assumes that the poll "has a definite 'day-of-the-week' effect", and it's based on graphs that Blumenthal says show an "impressively consistent pattern". I've looked at those graphs and I just don't see the pattern through the noise. Sometimes the change day to day is up for Clinton; other times it's up for Obama.

Why is it appropriate to read anything into this, aside from statistical noise or all-too-human propensity to see pattern?

Wow, I am so blown away at the bigots spewing forth their venom, under the guise of no experience (like that matters, last Republican to have a balanced budget was Ike), Obama's pastor, like he can control the guy, and Obama supposedly bullying poor HRC, who spews hateful comments towards him every day. Today he is disenfranchising voters per HRC (and yes, I am a white woman) so, go ahead, vote for McCain, who has had melanoma, which quite often reappears down the road; he is having senior moments, all but 14 percent of people his age show some dementia, that is a medical fact. His wife broke federal drug laws and walked away with a swat. He has changed his positions more often the weather, he will give us no health care relief, no budget balance as he will continue with tax cuts and war, and he was thick in the Keating thing, barely survived. He cheated on his first wife several times, his words, married his biggest affair who is now his wife, has violated FEC rules, and on and on. No one with any conscience and love for this country could vote for him, and yes, I lived in Arizona, I do know the man. Yet patriots say if Obama wins the nomination, they will vote for McCain. That is just a lie, they were never voting for a Democrat if that is the case.

Hey did anyone catch Obama Bowling?
He is really comically bad.
I actually give him points for being so bad.

"Barack Obama has benefitted from samples late in the week or on weekends"

When when everyone is already drinking and could give a hoot. Sober people Vote for Hillary.

Media, media, and media.
Study the stories coming out of CNN, etc., and you just might notice an Obama's turn to squirm, now Clinton's, now Obama's, quality to the reporting. I've noticed it for weeks now, and based on last night's reporting, this is a pro-Clinton week, barring any huge and newsworthy surprises. So, figure that up until Friday, you'll hear the word "comeback" a great deal.

Totally unscientific and silly, I know, but Gallup may simply be more accurately reporting the emotional roller coaster ride the media has had us on since mid February.

Thanks to a comment in a Kos thread, I went to Drudge for the first time ever just now to see if the heads up was true.

Fwiw, he's saying that Rasmussan later today for PA will come out and have it 47 Clinton 42 Obama.

I would guess even TPM election central would be forced to note that poll. Maybe. I am still stunned they gave that kind of run to a KY poll and ignored the NC poll at the same time.

Sorry for the double post, I can't stand the delay in this system, where sometimes it eventually posts, and sometimes it doesn't.