Claim: Gallup Tracking Poll May Be Flawed
A lot of pundits rely on the Gallup poll as the standard national tracking poll — but Mark Blumenthal has noticed an interesting quirk in its results. It turns out that the poll has a definite "day-of-the-week" effect: Hillary Clinton has consistently done better in samples from the middle of the week, while Barack Obama has benefitted from samples late in the week or on weekends.
The quirk, says Blumenthal, suggests that the poll may not be a reliable indicator of day-to-day movement — even though pundits have been spinning whole theories based on these volatile micro-shifts.
We're going to check in with Gallup about this, and keep you posted.
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