This may explain why the Republicans have picked up their attack on Obama on all fronts, from Fox News to Rush Limbaugh. They know the inevitable is upon them. Barack's nomination.

Headline of the Day

First lady Clinton and the intern crisis AP

The New York Times joins KOS and Chuck Todd in The Last Dog Death Watch ...front page tomorrow

Barack has lost points in the double digits. He will be annihilated in Pa.

His supposedly Kennedy-esque speech fell through the cracks with the bulk of the American public. Badly timed (mid-morning?), badly delivered.

Bye, bye, Barack baby. See you in 2016.

Sigh Real Clear politics, look at the Poll Chart he went down when the kitchen sink stuff went off and then they been about even since March 4th.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html

Can we please stop with the day to day poll updates that fit into a narrative. I notice you guys still haven't made a post about the one that shows Obama gaining in the polls today.

Story now over 5 hours old and still no reporting of it on TPM:

First lady records show Clinton promoted NAFTA

Thanks Brownie.
You guys are doing a heck of a job.

MI and FL are not revoting. Hillary can't carry the delegate vote nor the popular vote NOR the states won. Her campaign will try to keep moving the goalposts but watch PA. It won't be Ohio. It'll be more like Texas after that speech. Even the Conservative pundits can't help but admire the courage. Coupled with the constant gaffes coming from Mccain about the false connections between Iran and Al Qaeda. The Democratic Party knows that despite the polls, a Democrat as gifted as Barack Obama ROUTES a moderate conservative turned neocon flip flopper like John Mccain.

The Dems are back and Barack is going to lead the way!

National polls are meaningless at this point. Current state polls can have some utility when compared with historical results of democrat vs. republican.

What is clear from this poll is Obama is down 8 pts. and Hillary up 5 pts. for a 13 pt. swing. Three and a half weeks ago was prior to Hillary's victories in RI, TX and OH which could account for the wide gap in the previous poll.

I have to take issue with Kleefeld's assessment "The polls have been all over the place on just how badly the Wright matter hurt Obama, with this poll seeming to indicate the damage was real, but not too bad — though other polls have shown it to be somewhat worse." A 13 pt. swing is pretty bad. And when one considers that neither McCain nor Hillary has yet to run a Rev. Wright focused ad in a battleground state. But they're probably in production.

Obama is irreparably damaged by his 20-year association with Rev. Wright and his poor judgment in not disassociating from him sooner -- like 19.5 years ago, or at least in 2007, when Obama decided to run for president as a "new kind of politician."

wow the Hillary/GOP trolls are really out in full force lately. What is it that they say about cornered animals?

It would be one thing if you guys actually made rational points but it mostly seems to be a bunch of bile and nonsensical talking points.

Obama took a hit on the Wright flap but seems to have weathered the storm as he is still ahead in all but a couple of nat'l polls.

Fred App:

It just doesn't matter. Numbers like this are going to go up and they're going to down, and they're usually going to vary by three or four points depending on the day's news.

Of course it doesn't matter. But not because as you surmise this is but the second quarter. No. The game is over. We are in garbage time as they say in the NBA. She can't win. She will never have more delegates than he has.

Do the math:
http://www.samefacts.com/archives/campaign_2008_/2008/03/new_math.php

And then really really do the math in a I-understand-the-blowout-idea-math way:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/3/4/162042/3056

The only way she can win is if the superdelegates go against the will of the numbers-- which means against the will of the people. That won't happen. The democratic party would not survive such a lobotomy of justice.

So this is a basketball game that isn't, which means that the second part of your quote is dead on accurate in a between-the-eyes kind of way:

They don't tell us anything useful, and reporting on them as if they were the tablets from Mount Sinai is lazy and superficial reporting. Come on, guys, this is the kind of shallow crap you jump all over the MSM about. Physician, heal thyself!

I'M POSTING ON A POLITICAL BLOG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I'm surprised that Clinton Talking Points Memo didn't Title this one:

GOOD NEWS FOR HILLARY- OBAMA AHEAD BY ONLY THREE! DISASTER IS IMMINENT!

Sorry, guys, but Fred App is right: the polls aren't meaningful at this point. Particularly since they were taken after the Wright flap but (mostly) before the Obama speech. Polls taken after the speech may show something meaningful. Or they may not -- I'd guess not. There's just too much noise to pick up a clean signal.

Wanna know what I think is going to happen? Clinton is going to win Pennsylvania, but not by a blowout -- Obama's speech will have made a difference. Obama will win North Carolina, but not by a blowout -- the Wright thing will have made a difference. Clinton will net maybe 5-6 delegates from Pennsylvania; Obama will net maybe 3-4 delegates from North Carolina.

If they do a revote in Michigan, I bet it's a close race. In the original vote, Clinton got 50%. She will the second time too; anything she gains from disillusion about Obama, she'll lose again from dissillusion about her. Net change: nil.

Other races: probably not a lot of action. Obama might inch a bit farther ahead.

So we'll get to the credentials committee with nothing certain. They'll decide to split the Florida delegation 50-50, thereby neatly passing the buck. The superdelegates will do the same.

So it will go to the floor of the convention. And the Edwards delegates will be the kingmakers.

Or -- here we go off the rails -- they'll take a ballot and no one will win. So they'll keep balloting. Sometime around the 17th ballot, somebody in the gallery will start chanting, "Gore! Gore! Gore! Gore!", the crowd will take it up, and the delegates will say, "F--- it, I want to go home" and nominate Gore.

Peace,
Paul

CBS/NYT Poll: Obama Still Slightly Ahead Of Hillary, And Still Beating McCain,...so clearly we, along with our cohorts in the MSM, must do everything we can to sustain the putrid walking corpse of a campaign being run,...nope,...slow walked,...nope, dragged to the inevitable grave, by Hillary Clinton. The only real question that remains is whether she takes just herself, or the entire Democratic party into the hole.

NY Times: Hillary's Last Chance Is To Beat Wright Issue Like A Drum

It's over, Hillary.

These polls are in the noise, yesterday BO was loosing to HRC and MCC, today he's up, really guys, its all statistically even. Polls are not going to make your decisions for you M. Superdelegate...

What newfapalooza and other have said. The trolls really are spoiling for a fight, and I guess Peter Daou is no longer requiring a grammar test (maybe the national party is hiring the trolls that are obviously not even Americans, maybe not even in America).

At DKos they often come in way downthread on a long one, and try to dominate it. And they are so automaton-like.

HRC is nothing but name recognition. Even people who actually understand that she isn't Bill are voting for Bill. Her feminist position isn't very good: she's in the race because of Bill; but she has lost because of him as well.

The idea that the Dems are somehow committing suicide, the Repugs have this unstoppable oppo for the fall - that is really some "fever swamp" bullshit. After Obama gets the official nomination, HRC will not be the leader of anything at all, except a Senatorial campaign. She won't "command her supporters" any more than we see Edwards able to do (especially after the Iowa convention).

Kos has explained why the continuing battle is NOT bad. It actually keeps McCain off the front page. Further, Obama will still have a long enough period of time in which to outspend McCain. He can also literally work him into the ground. There's a reason why Presidents age rapidly, and when you're 71 to start with, it's a major consideration.

Added to which: McCain is incredibly gaffe-prone. Already he's had a bimbo eruption, a campaign finance violation involving his entire campaign (the improper use of public financing guarantees), a major and repeated foreign policy booboo (Iran trains Al-Qaeda?). Plus, he has genuine anger management issues; all he has to do is make the "mean face" on camera a few times and voters will go "ewwww..." (Halloween is before the election). And none of it has been fully exploited...it's waiting for him down the road.

For some time, we've seen generic Dem numbers sky and named candidates closer. McCain is in a sense a generic at this point. His support in national polls is "as opposed to" the two-headed Dem contest, and also consists of name recognition that has not been directly lasered yet (the "maverick"). What I'm saying is that the reason HRC is so desperate to squeak through for the nomination is that McCain is not going to be a strong candidate. The economy and Iraq are going to merge into one big issue of bad Bush government. Voters will punish McCain for the Bush recession, the way they punished Gore for Bill Clinton's mistakes.

So don't feed the trolls. Don't let them hijack threads. If they say something you really think is WORTH RESPONDING TO, then fine; but how often does that happen? 90% of it is just fake sneering, an attempt to shake the confidence of people who resort to these comment threads for reassurance.

I don't really think of Kos as that much of a progressive, but in political terms he has done a good job of arguing that everything is going just fine. We're all acting like basketball fans who want a 25 point lead so we can relax. In fact that wouldn't be good. The truth is, our problems will only be beginning when Obama wins! He will need help again and again. The eight years of his presidency will be years of shock and sacrifice, as we learn the true depths of Bushite idiocy, and as we confront the hard-headedness of Americans who at some point will be hungrier than ever for demagogues and their fake solutions.

Above all remember this: one year ago Bill C. was the beloved "Big Dog" and the Clinton years were fond memories. That situation will return. Two short weeks ago HRC said she was "honored" to be on stage with Barack.

She'll say that many times in the future.

One of the things I find most interesting is how BOTH Obama and Clinton lost ground in the polls against McCain.

Folks are so focused on this Wright issue they have forgotten how Hillary's remarks about her experience and McCains vs. Obama's speech and the red phone ad.

Those two incidents I beleive are driving the drop in the polls for BOTH Obama and Hillary vs. McCain.

Voters are choose McCain on national security and experience.

Hillary shot DEMOCRATS in the foot with her stupid remarks and fearmongering ad.

McCain is the clear winner from that scorched earth tactic of hers.