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Bill Clinton: Hillary Will Win The Popular Vote In Primary States

Speaking last night to volunteers in the Texas district conventions, Bill Clinton used perhaps the most blunt dismissal of caucus losses that we've yet seen — and seemingly setting up a scenario in which the Clinton campaign could lose even the aggregate popular vote, but justify battling on by way of only looking at the popular votes from primary states.

"Right now, among all the primary states, believe it or not, Hillary's only 16 votes behind in pledged delegates," said Bill, "and she's gonna wind up with the lead in the popular vote in the primary states. She's gonna wind up with the lead in the delegates."


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Desperation seems to be the mother of invention in this election cycle.

Hey Bill, so what? Do you have a point here? We could look at this by who has won the most geographic territory (hint: Obama is KICKING YOUR ASS!!!), but that doesn't really matter does it, because that isn't how elections are decided.

Is anyone else sick of how small the Clintons are acting in dismissing everyone that doesn't vote for them as worthless?? It is embarrassing to all democrats to have an ex-president and a current presidential candidate and Senator trashing on large sections of the country, millions upon millions of people. I've very much ashamed.

Is this the new math?

She's also winning in the delegate and popular vote counts from contests she's won.

Um, WTF, Bill?

I know my state isn't "primary" so I guess I'm unimportant...as was my vote.

Why not just say the only states that matter are the ones Hillary wins?

Last time I checked, Barack Obama was running for president of the entire UNITED STATES.

Oh yeah. Well Obama is WAYYY ahead in states that Obama won. So take that!!

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Just STFU mr. bill. STFU.

I agree wwjb. I cannot believe how they just dismiss 50% or more of dems and whole swaths of the country as worthless. It really is outrageous and pathetic. I wish that they would just go away already.

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Clinton supporters have eaten more Peeps than Obama's supporters. This race is over!

As a Peep-lovin' Obama supporter, I'm still waiting for the final votes to come in on that one..

I know I ate my share of 'em this year :)

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It's not over! I still have an unopened package of peeps, and I can hit the clearance aisle!

(The Peeps primary must last at least a week after Easter, right?)

Peep votes count! They are Peeple too!!

The Clintons and their cronies have considered themselves the rightful owners of the party for a long time now. Did anybody really think they'd bow out gracefully? That's not their way.

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The Clintons finally decided to put dolly wheels on the goalposts-saves them a lot of trouble moving those goalposts so often.

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This kind of talk is going to continue to backfire for the Clinton's. The two recent polls - MS-NBC/WSJ and Pew - that show Clinton's favorables and support falling suggest to me a trend. Conventional wisdom so far seems to be that Clinton is dropping either because of the Bosnia flap or because of her attack on Obama for his association with Wright - percieved by many Dems as abetting the right wing line.

But my hypothesis is that there is something more fundamental at work: Especially following the recent NYT delegate count analysis, and the reporting of that story in other media, more and more Democrats are concluding that there is simply no realistic and constructive way for the Clintons to win this thing, and that Obama is now our nominee. As this perception continues to sink in, more and more Democrats are simply going to resent Clinton for continuing to run hard, and for assisting the Republicans by attacking our nominee, whether or not the attacks are seen as "fair" or "unfair".

I'm guessing that this is going to emerge as the issue in Pennsylvania in the coming weeks, as increasing numbers of Democrats across the country call on Pennsylvania voters to face reality, get with the program, and bring an end to this destructive intramural battle by giving Obama his race-concluding victory in Clinton's last stand in PA.

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He must have been drinking those lattes!

Some people call this spin, some call it misspeaking, I call it lying.

There is such a thing as lying by the twist of truth. This is an example.

And I agree, it is very embarrasing to have an ex-President act this way.

When are them Texas results going to be published loudly for once and for all??

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Well, I'm sure Hillary can sit around feeling vindicated in the senate next year.

Clinton also has the most votes ever cast for a female candidate for the Democratic Nomination from the State of New York who is married to a former president. Top that Obama.

THIS JUST IN...

Former President Bill Clinton remarked before an audience today, "Well, most folks don't understand that Hillary won more fat people who like dark chocolate, and since this is an increasingly fat nation with a preference for dark chocolate, people ought to think long and hard about the kind of nominee they want to have. I'm just saying..."

I'm getting dizzy from all the spin coming from the Clinton camp.

So even in Clinton's most favorable category (primaries) she is still behind by 16!

Well, I live in a primary state- yay, good, good, good. According to Bill, I count! What a relief. Unfortunately, Bill also says mine is not a significant primary state since it's only Virginia and not NY or California. Dang.

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Exactly! And don't forget that they didn't want to count Virginia either because we allow open voting where god forbid, independents can vote too!

Bill, so what. You can argue next she won all the states that have New in them. It means nothing.

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We've been getting the "caucuses are undemocratic" drumbeat for months now.

But what I want to know is this: was anyone making any serious arguments against caucuses BEFORE 2008?

If caucuses are such a horrible blight on our democracy, then surely there was some kind of organized resistance to the idea before it became politically expedient for Clinton. In my little bit of research, all I've found are some complaints specific to Iowa, but nothing about the caucus concept in general.

Can TPM shed any light on the history here?

Everyone knows that the only part of the process that we are allowed to essentially alter during the middle of the election is the superdelegates. Obama and Pelosi and their friends in the media have basically made it so that having a lead in plegded delegates, even without the required number of 2024, has to be the nominee. This basically guts the whole concept of the superdelegates by denying them the autonomy to make independent judgments as they were created to do. This is supposedly justified by the undemocratic nature of the superdelegates, but if that is the case, then the same reasoning would apply to caucuses which are also undemocratic, and clearly no where near as clear a reflection of the will of the people as primaries are. The hypocrisy from Obama supporters will never cease to amaze me. If you want to stop hearing the caucuses bashed, start by stopping your attempts to undermine the legitimate role of the superdelegates.

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Nobody has said that the Super's should be required to do anything; but simply that it would not be good for the party if the election seemed to be reversed by the Super Delegates. I don't think this is such an extreme point of view although it doesn't bode will for Clinton's chances. We as a country are grown up enough to handle loosing an election even by the smallest of margins; but we don't get over the perception that an election was stolen from someone and given to another.

If we want to go into the fall strong; we have to accept the leader and rally behind them to defeat the Republicans and increase our lead in Congress as well.

This really is entering the opera bouffe stage, the final tragic-comic scenes in the drama of the Clinton loss of power. (Bill seems the more upset, and it is easy to see why: he worries that no one will be there to simply praise his 1990s legacies.)

I'll bet we New England Patriots fans could rework ways of counting points in the last NFL football season plus the postseason and the Super Bowl to make the Patriots come out perfect, without that final defeat. Let's see if we can sell that to the rest of country!

Seriously, there is a longstanding tension in American democracy at work here: since early in U.S. history, there has been a tension between counting things by state population and/or levels of economic wealth, versus the genius of U.S. federalism deliberately created by the Founding Fathers to give equal weight in some dimensions to each state (e.g., representation the U.S. Senate). That governance plan was intended to spread points of access to the political system even to smaller and less populated and less wealthy places across the continent. It worked to facilitate broad economic development, and federal approaches were also built into mass political party practices (down through our present primary system). Thus our electoral system has important elements that widely spread access -- so that winning a lot of different states, not just the big ones, matters.
Why would we want a system in which the candidates visited only the big states?

Obama devised his campaign strategy to build on the existing rules of the federal-democratic game, and he should be praised for that. After the fact, the Clintons are reviving the age-old complaints of wealthy/populous states against the key underpinnings of U.S. federal democracy (though they are only doing it in retrospect because the original rules of the game they thought they could use to win have not worked for them). The response to their ploy is obvious: so what, if early in the primary season, Clinton piled up a lot of extra popular votes in California, Massachusetts, and New York? Those states will go for Obama/Democrats in the general election anyway. The excess votes are wasted in an electoral college system. (And notice that, in any event, the latest polls show Obama doing better than Clinton against McCain in California. If we "redid" some of those early primary contests, Obama would do better now.)

Let's hope the superdelegates drift steadily to a winner and we Democrats can pivot toward the general election after the PA-NC-IN contests.
If that means the end of comic daily efforts to redefine the rule of U.S. governance/politics in retrospect, that will be a blessed side effect.

Theda Skocpol, Cambridge, MA

Well, heck, even the Cubs win some of their innings. But there are rules that say they have to score more runs in the whole game before they get to count it as a win.

What's wrong with these people, anyway?

1 point for Middle!

But what I want to know is this: was anyone making any serious arguments against caucuses BEFORE 2008?

Was anyone making serious arguments against the autonomy of the superdelegates BEFORE 2008. No. good- so Obama can take his plegeded delegate lead and take a flying leap.

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Actually, there were complaints about the super-delegates from the beginning, and the very term "super-delegate" was initially derogatory.

"Organized feminists, on and off the Commission, however, make a new argument. Speaking on their behalf, Technical Advisory Committee Member Susan Estrich of Massachusetts argued that creating a new category of delegates who were not subject to the fair reflection and candidate right of approval rules would create a new status of delegate which she referred to as “super-delegates.” These delegates, argued Estrich, would be overwhelmingly white and male. Even were they balanced by an equal number of women in the total delegation — there would still be the problem of “equal power.” The “super-delegates” because of their greater flexibility in the choice of a nominee, would have greater power than the female delegates committed to presidential candidates. (“Unintended Consequences,” by Susan Estrich, Memorandum to the Hunt Commission, September 9, 1981.)

From "A History of 'Super-Delegates' in the Democratic Party"

I love irony.

Talking about moving the goalposts! and field markers and the sidelines... And by the way, field goals and extra points don't count. Neither do safeties or touchdowns scored by passing or any points scored by players not wearing number "12" or points scored before halftime or after halftime, or in the first four quarters.

Pat Leahy is right. Time for her (AND HIM!!!) to drop out.

Oh for heaven's sake, Bill, this is ridiculous!

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Bill is disenfranchising voters in caucus states!
</clintonese>

Just to make sure I've got this right; was he saying this to the folks who are going to the convention this weekend to validate the delegates from the Texas caucuses? That is who I think he was talking to and if that's the case it's even crazier than it would be otherwise.

Does, Bill's frequent production of new metrics remind anyone else of the administration's frequent production of new metrics which always show how well the war in Iraq is going?

Actually, the comparison between Clinton's campaign and Bush's campaign can go on from there.

I now think that those who think all this ever-more ridiculous Pennspin is directed at the super delegates (and, to be fair,I was one of those people until recently) are wrong. The supers are increasingly making it clear that they think its stupid and insulting to their intelligence.

No, the only people who seem to be buying it are her supporters, which leads me to hypothesize that they are, in fact, the intended audience. (And note that that's literally true in this case. Bill wasn't talking to a rally of superdelegates here.)

I now believe this stuff is solely for the benefit of the voters and the troops, particularly in Pennsylvania. I'd be willing to bet that their internals are starting to show that the harsh mathematical realities are starting to take hold of the voters' minds and some are, quite rationally, beginning to ask what the point of voting for Hillary is if she can't win the nomination by any means that would enable her to win the general. Their only hope to counteract that trend is to keep pumping out a steady stream of liquid bullshit and hope some of it lands on the other side of the scale in the voters' brains that are weighing whether there's any point to voting for her.

Additionally, of course, she's especially got to keep the hardcore diehards morale up or her campaign is over. As we here in the comment dungeon know all too well, there is no statement Team Hillary can make that's too ridiculous to be believed and repeated by her core supporters for at least a while, but as the actual facts keeps getting worse for them, the shelf life of each new ridculous statement is less than that of the last one so they have to generate new ones at a faster rate.

In slightly archaic economic terms, she's out of specie (facts) and she's exhausted her credit. Her campaign's only remaining currency is ridiculous Pennspin. As more and more people lose confidence in the value of that currency, it begins an inflationary spiral and they have to put out more and more of it. They start with one one ridiculous idea a month, then its one a week, then its two or three a week. Before this is over, they'll be putting out new ridiculous ideas every hour on the hour, 24/7.

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No president gets to pick and chose the callenges they face. Every human being faces challenges we must overcome. If Hillaryland wasn't doing well in caucuses, it was their challenge to figure out a way to do better.

Since they don't bother taking this challenge head on and find a solution to improve their caucus performance, I gather they would be unfit to govern in the real world of being president.

Was anyone making serious arguments against the autonomy of the superdelegates BEFORE 2008. No. good- so Obama can take his plegeded delegate lead and take a flying leap.

I don't see how saying that the superdelegates ought to behave in a certain way abrogates their autonomy. Many of us felt the Supreme Court shouldn't have issued Bush v. Gore, but SCOTUS is autonomous and not accountable to the electorate. Heck, if the superdelegates want to hamstring the election and bring the convention to its knees until it approves a Gore-Edwards ticket, they most certainly have the right. Ain't sayin' it's a good idea, 'cuz I don't think it's a good idea for the superdelegates to ignore the electorate. Which is what Pelosi et al. have been saying.

Meanwhile, gotta luv my senior senator. Go Leahy! (Oh, and VT had a primary, btw.)

At last, Thanks to President Bill Clinton having now explained it, I fully understand why Senator Hillary Rambo Clinton decided to not contest the Iowa Caucuses, and never even visited Iowa.

"Caucuses! We don't need no stinkin' Caucuses" Hillary Rambo Clinton

What Bill is saying boils down to this: "No fair! We were outsmarted!" That isn't exactly a winning argument for a presidential candidate to make.

Obama the insurgent, starting from way behind, has smoked Hillary. It's clear from the campaign that he's the better executive and the better strategic thinker. He saw where he could make inroads and made the most of his opportunities -- within the existing system, without trying to change the rules. He has dealt with unexpected setbacks and flare-ups calmly and coolly (losing NH, Rev. Wright).

Hillary didn't think she had to pay attention to caucuses (aside from Iowa) or anything after Super Tuesday. When her Plan A didn't work out, she had no Plan B.

You don't even have to look at her health-care fiasco or her vote for the war to know which candidate would be the better leader. To echo Venerable Rinpoche above, if she was so unprepared to deal with Obama, how is she going to deal with the unexpected challenges any president must face?

If I were Obama, I would urge Clinton to quit the race right now. I would be saying that she is harming the party and our chances in November. I would blame all the divisiveness of this campaign on Clinton. I would call her the divider, and I would call myself the uniter. I would be pointing out that even though I can not win the nomination by pledged delegates any more than Clinton can, the superdelegates should all support me because of my slim lead in pledged delegates. I would urge them to ignore the rule that says they should use their judgment, and say that to not support the candidate with the most pledged delegates would make the nomination illegitimate. I would block every attempt to include the votes from Michigan and Florida, or to have a re-vote, and instead try to negotiate some formula where either I get half of those votes regardless of how the people voted, or only use the original vote if the numbers are cut in half, thus minimizing Clinton's advantage in those two states. I would try my best to get Clinton to resign before Pennsylvania where she is expected to win.

If I were Hillary Clinton I would absolutely not resign the race with Pennsylvania, Illinois and Puerto Rico still ahead. I would do everything I could to get the delegates from Michigan and Florida seated in some fashion that does not transfer votes I won to Mr. Obama, or cut my lead in half. I would hope for increased media scrutiny of Mr. Obama, and more revelations such as the Rev. Jeremiah Wright's inflammatory comments. I would want the public to get to know Mr. Obama as well as they already know me. I would want his record examined. I would press the superdelegates to follow the rules and use their best judgment, rather than simply rubber stamp the pledged delegate results. I would point to polls that indicate a close race. I would point out how slim Mr. Obama's lead is among pledged delegates. I would continuously remind my critics that the race is not over, and that important states have yet to vote. If blamed for the divisiveness of the campaign, I would point out that my opponent has engaged in attacks as well, and it takes two. And to those who say the campaign has dragged on too long and increases the chance that McCain will win, I would say that just sixteen years ago my husband's nomination wasn't settled until June, and he won the presidency.

Hillary is also leading the popular vote AND delegates in states that she has won. Take that, Obama.

Why is the media not talking about this?? THIS IS GREAT NEWS FOR HILLARY!!!

The point is:

Even under this metric she is STILL BEHIND!

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Bill's point is legitimate-- caucuses favor people with lots of time on their hands, who tend to be wealthier. Primaries are a simpler way of doing business, and, at least arguably, a better measure of the public pulse.

I'll be voting for HRC in Pennsylvania because her health care plan is better than Obama's. Read today's Krugman.

Don't like it? If BHO could have won sufficient delegates outright, this would all be over. I'm not casting a vote to ratify the results of the mighty Kansas caucuses. I want my voice heard.

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And again I ask, where was the outrage over caucuses before 2008?

Hillary Clinton had no objections to caucuses until she lost a dozen of them.

The caucus is the oldest form of democracy there is.

There are certainly valid arguments in favor of primaries, and certainly there's been a shift toward primaries over the last 50 years. All candidates are free to argue for more change in the next election.

In the meantime, 13 states use caucuses, and their citizens should not be disenfranchised.

You might have noticed that the number of states that use primaries now compared to historically is greater than it has ever been. Less and less states use caucuses and more use primaries, precisely because people have realized that caucuses suck and disenfranchise people. That is why we see many people calling for a national primary all the time, but no one caliing for a national caucus. And just because people may have objected to superdelegates 30 years ago when they were established, they have become accepted since then, and no one has made proposals to eliminate them accept Obama supporters back dooring that into existence.

Funny that I haven't heard one Obama supporter demanding that at the Texas Convention that the delegates that Obama won switch over to Clinton in order to avoid having the results of Texas overturn the will of the people as expressed by the votes of millions of people in the Texas primary. If the will of the people matters then caucuses should not count more than primaries. If we don't look at it that way, then you have no basis for claiming that the superdelegates can't go against the pledged delegate leader because you are only selectively applying the principle of the popular will.

The way the process was set up you don't get jack crap because you have a lead in pledged delegates. If Obama can't get to 2024 without extorting votes out of the superdelegares with his empty hyporcritical appeals to the will of the people, then he has zero claim to the nomination. Since he and his supporters seem to have little interest to respecting the rules of the process except when it benefits him, don't be suprised when voters in droves defect for the guy who almost twice became a democrat.

Got hysteria?

Caucuses are perfectly legitimate forums to choose a candidate. I'd prefer that only registered Democrats who have voted in the last three federal elections could participate in caucuses, without any primaries.

Let people get off their duffs and work with the party for three hours every four years. If that is too much to ask of somebody, then why do I care who they want to be the nominee of my party?

I don't remember Bill bitching about having to count the delegates he won in caucuses back in '92.


Smart strategy. Bill wants this to be OVER, so he's insulting the caucus states to drive their superdelegates to Obama

He obviously does NOT want to be the First Laddie. And surely he doesn't even want their tax returns released, ESPECIALLY if Hillary's not going to be the nominee.

Senator Obama knew that he was participating in an Election Campaign.

Senator Clinton assumed that she was attending her Coronation Ceremony.

Hubris tied Hillary's shoe laces together.

See, this is the first time caucuses have ever been employed in the primary contest of the Democratic party, so you can't blame Bill for being dubious of them.

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