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ARG: Obama Way Ahead In Mississippi Primary
The first public poll is out for this Tuesday's primary in Mississippi, a state where Barack Obama is favored to win.
The American Research Group poll puts Obama way at 58% support, against Hillary Clinton's 34%. Granted, ARG's record for primaries this cycle has been spotty. Nevertheless, it would be pretty hard to get it totally wrong on a margin this big.
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Sounds good, though Bill has been sent in to host fish fry events (one tonight in Tupelo I believe). Never underestimate the power of free food and a Clinton!
I know Michelle has young children and needs a break, but I hope the campaign sends her down to Mississippi soon. Every delegate counts...needless to say.
March 7, 2008 11:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
I can't keep track, is this a state that matters?
Does a state only matter if the Dems have ever, or recently, won it in the General Election?
March 7, 2008 11:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm pretty sure its a red state ... But I think Obama might be able to make it competitive in the fall.
March 7, 2008 12:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am a Mississippian and normally I would laugh at the suggestion of a Dem carrying the state, but we can win this son-of-a-bitch in November. I just posted this in another thread, but I find it appropriate for here.
1. Haley Barbour, a highly popular governor, only won his reelection bid 58-42 last year against a third tier candidate.
2. Ronnie Musgrove, the former Dem governor, has a lead in the Senate race for Trent Lott's old seat.
3. The wingnuts down here HATE McCain. They do not hate Obama yet for some reason.
4. We have more AA than anywhere, like 37% or so. Also our young are excited like never before.
Here is what happens that let's us pop the cork in NOV
The Republicans show up at 85% strength and we show at 120% strength, we win and we win a Senate seat too.
If for no other reason let us make them spend money and precious time in a state that they take for granted.
March 7, 2008 4:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
C'mon, Idiotic, don't keep us waiting! Show us the love... :)
March 7, 2008 12:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dream ticket:
Obama/Idiotic
March 7, 2008 12:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS!! FOR HILLARY!!!
!!!HILLMENTUM™!!!!
March 7, 2008 12:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ah, thank you, Idiotic. Like a fine wine...
March 7, 2008 12:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
"I'm pretty sure its a red state ... But I think Obama might be able to make it competitive in the fall."...
dude you are new to this, aren't you?? missisipi competitive!!! come down from cloud 9!
March 7, 2008 1:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Go figure this poll..
http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/downloads/InsiderAdvantage_Majority_Opinion_Poll_3-7-2008.pdf
This shows obama leading only by 6 points!
between InsiderAdvantage and ARG, i'll choose InsiderAdvantage anyday!
March 7, 2008 1:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, Obama is only going to pull 67% of the black vote, as this poll suggests.
I think ARG may be overstating, but Insider Advantage doesn't look that great either. I think he wins by double digits.
March 7, 2008 2:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Welcome to irrelevance, Mississippi.
March 7, 2008 2:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Did Jesse Jackson win MS in 1988??? I'm sure Bill knows..
March 7, 2008 2:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Gee, I wonder if it is because Mississipi has a lot of Black voters?
March 7, 2008 2:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wyoming and Mississippi aren't going to change much of anything.....I'm watching Pennsylvania. That's where the next large delegate prize is, and it's another big battleground state....all of which Hillary has won.
March 7, 2008 2:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually in the crazy way Democrats do things Wyoming and Mississippi will be more important than Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania combined. At least delegatewise.
March 7, 2008 2:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ah JQ, but you see it was all about delegates back when Barack won Iowa. Now that he's gone on to rack up a bunch of other delegate wins, it's all about super delegates, disproven Canadian memos, and whatever else gets pulled out of one Mark Penn's orifices.
March 7, 2008 3:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'd be willing to bet that Obama nets more delegates our ot MS than Hillary did on 3-4. It's all about the margins of victory. She wins margins and he wins ratios. It'll be 2:1 for Obama in MS but the exit polls will be closer because down here blacks are afraid to admit that they voted for the black candidate to a white pollster.
March 7, 2008 3:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
FACT CHECK
Last I checked Obama had won these 5 "big swing states:" IL, WA, MO, VA, and GA
Has TX finished counting yet?
March 7, 2008 3:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
I disagree. Obama can completely erase any delegate gains by HRC on Tuesday (4-15 depending who is doing the counting). He will be able to say that his delegate lead is larger now than it was BEFORE the primaries in TX, OH, VT, and RI.
March 7, 2008 4:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
We can't know if Mississippi counts until we hear it from Hillary.
March 7, 2008 2:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ah, Mississippi doesn't count. We all know that. This is a non-story.
March 7, 2008 2:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just saw transcript for Obama's new ad in Mississippi. Incredibly sexist. Sen. Clinton is remarking on the lack of elected female politicians in Iowa and Mississippi and Obama chooses pretend that she is being disrespectful to the voters rather than lamenting an existing prejudice. . Only a few decades ago the same lament could have been made about black politicians in Mississippi. If you complaint there are no elected black officials you are simply disrespecting Mississippi. So try reading it both ways:
"Barack Obama’s campaign has debuted a new radio ad in Mississippi called "Respect," highlighting what they call “derogatory” remarks Hillary Clinton made about the state late last year.
The ad also argues that Obama will “practice his Christian faith by respecting us” — an apparent push-back against the false Muslim rumors that have dogged him throughout the campaign.
In the 30-second spot, former Mississippi Governor Ray Mabus, an Obama supporter, derides Clinton for comments she made last fall singling out the state’s record of electing female politicians.
"I was shocked when I learned Iowa and Mississippi have never elected a woman governor, senator or member of Congress," Clinton told the Des Moines Register in October. "There has got to be something at work here. How can Iowa be ranked with Mississippi? That's not the quality. That's not the communitarianism, that's not the openness I see in Iowa.'"
So what would you think if it was Obama saying "I was shocked when I learnd Iowa and Mississipppi have never elected a black governor or Senator. There has got to be something at work here.""
snip
and the other side claimed that this was dissing the voters?
Women are way underepresented in Congress and politics generally in part because precisely the type of prejudice against women that Obama is indulging in and benefitting from.
March 7, 2008 2:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
You are missing the point. Hillary said "How can Iowa be ranked with Mississippi? That's not the quality. That's not the communitarianism, that's not the openness I see in Iowa." She was saying that sexism is to be expected from a backwater like MS but she expected better from IA. If that is not an insult to MS I'll vote for your false claims of sexism.
March 7, 2008 3:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
How come no big headline that says:
It's Closer Than You Think
http://www.internetnewsagency.com/news_detail.aspx?sid=172
March 7, 2008 5:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
How come no big headline that says:
It's Closer Than You Think
http://www.internetnewsagency.com/news_detail.aspx?sid=172
March 7, 2008 5:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
I just checked slate's delegate counter. If Obama can win Mississippi by 25 it nets him 9 delegates. A 10 point victory in Wyoming gives him 2.
Not bad. By Tuesday whatver inroads Hillory mad will possibly be wiped out.
Her probable win in Pennsylvania will be more than wiped out in North Carolina. It's pretty much game over
March 7, 2008 9:58 PM | Reply | Permalink