A new Rasmussen poll of Arkansas shows John McCain taking the lead over Hillary Clinton for the general election, after Hillary had been in the lead in most polls throughout this cycle for the state where she had previously served as first lady.

McCain leads Hillary 50%-43%, with 50% of likely voters saying they view Hillary favorably to 47% unfavorable, compared to McCain's 66%-30% rating. McCain does even better against Barack Obama, trouncing him 59%-30%, with Obama having a 35%-62% favorable rating.

Today's Gallup tracking poll shows Barack Obama retaking the national lead over Hillary Clinton, after the Jeremiah Wright scandal had badly damaged his numbers and put him behind for nearly a week. Here are today's numbers, compared to yesterday:

Obama 48% (+3)
Clinton 45% (-2)

It would appear that Obama's big speech on Tuesday, combined with the Bill Richardson endorsement, have gone a long way in fixing his poll numbers for now. But he still has yet to fully recover the six-point lead he had in Gallup a little over a week ago.

At an Obama event in Oregon today, retired Gen. Tony McPeak compared Bill Clinton to Joe McCarthy, over Bill's remarks yesterday that a Hillary vs. McCain race would be a contest between "two people who loved this country and were devoted to the interest of this country ... instead of all this other stuff that always seems to intrude itself on our politics."

Many Obama supporters have interpreted Bill's comments as a subtle slam on their candidate's patriotism. "I grew up, I was going to college when Joe McCarthy was accusing good Americans of being traitors, so I've had enough of it," McPeak said, as he stood on the stage with Obama.

The Hillary camp slammed McPeak and demanded a retraction from the Obama team. "I think most Democrats were shocked to learn that a two-term Democratic president was compared to Joseph McCarthy," said spokesman Howard Wolfson.

The Obama camp isn't backing down, though, and they've sent out a memo containing numerous examples of Bill Clinton or his aides attacking the Republicans as McCarthyists throughout the 1990s.

A couple quick Richardson updates.

First, here's an explanation from Clinton spokesperson Phil Singer of Mark Penn's suggestion yesterday that Bill Richardson's endorsement of Obama was "not significant":

Everyone in the Clinton campaign has the utmost respect for Gov. Richardson and many of us know him well. Mark was referring to the fact that Gov. Richardson didn’t endorse prior to his state’s primary and certainly didn’t mean to imply anything else. The Clinton campaign continues to seek the support of all Latino voters and leaders in the remaining primaries and caucuses.

Meanwhile, Richardson offered some new comments clarifying whether he thinks Hillary should drop out of the race, as he seemed to suggest yesterday. Check out what Richardson said about this in a new interview:

“I’m not going to advise any other candidate when to get in and out of the race,” Mr. Richardson said after appearing in Portland with Mr. Obama. “Senator Clinton has a right to stay in the race, but eventually we don’t want to go into the Democratic convention bloodied. This was another reason for my getting in and endorsing, the need to perhaps send a message that we need unity.”

Richardson's stance seems to be that Hillary has a right to stay in for now, but just not too much longer, and certainly not all the way until the convention, lest it imperil the Democratic Party's chances in the fall.

A new Rasmussen poll in Minnesota shows Sen. Norm Coleman (R) taking a narrow lead over Al Franken. Here are the numbers, compared to the previous poll from a month ago:

Coleman (R) 48% (+2)
Franken (D) 46% (-3)

With this race going from a narrow Franken lead to a narrow Coleman lead, and all within the margin of error, expect this to be a closely-fought campaign with a lot of reversals in the lead from here to November.

A new CBS poll shows Barack Obama receiving high marks for his speech on race relations.

The poll shows 69% of registered voters saying Obama did a good job of addressing race relations, and 71% said he did a good job explaining his relationship with Jeremiah Wright. The poll also showed 63% saying they agree with Obama on race relations.

Among voters who have followed the Wright controversy, only 14% said they were less likely to vote for Obama as a result — with an equal 14% saying they were more likely to vote for him, and 70% saying it would make no difference.

One bit of lasting damage appears to be on whether voters believe Obama can unite the country, a theme that has been one of the cornerstones of his candidacy. On that question he is at 52% Yes to 35% No, a decline from his score of 67%-25% last month.

I noted below that I was going to try to establish whether the Obama campaign really was peddling the story that Camp Hillary was somehow behind the security breach surrounding Obama's passport files.

After checking into it, I can say that it appears that there's no evidence that this actually happened.

Today on a conference call, a top Hillary adviser attacked the Obama campaign, pointing to the fact that it was alleged on MSNBC this morning that the Obama camp was pushing the tale. This claim appears to have been based on this quote from Morning Joe...

JOE SCARBOROUGH: It's hard to say. It's probably not going to be that big of a story except for the fact that it really helps Barack Obama get some bad news off the front pages of the paper going to the weekend. I think what you're going to see, and already it seems the Obama camp is trying to push the narrative that the supervisor in this episode was a Clinton appointee. They are going to try to point their fingers towards Clinton and make it political.

This appeared to be a reference to a story that MSNBC's David Shuster did yesterday reporting that the former chief of consular affairs received an ambassadorship from Bill Clinton.

But Shuster, who is MSNBC's lead reporter on the passport files story, indicates to me that any reporting suggesting that the Obama campaign pushed this story to him is false. Shuster emails me this:

All of my reporting on the passport story has been based soley on State department and Department of Justice resources. I have received no tips, ledes, contacts, guidance, spin, or anything else from any political campaign.

The story I broke last night about the former chief of consular affairs, Maureen Harty, having received an ambassadorship from Bill Clinton in 1997, was obtained by (1) researching state department web sites and other data bases for the names of current and former consular affairs chiefs, (2) finding a state department biography for Maureen Harty, (3) confirming her ambassadorship via a Clinton foundation web site that had the 1997 press release.

Presuming that Scarborough (who didn't return a call) was basing his assertion on the work done by MSNBC's lead reporter on this story, which seems quite plausible, it appears that Scarborough had this wrong.

Here's Bill Richardson's full endorsement speech from today...

Ben Smith notes this line from the speech:

It is time, however, for Democrats to stop fighting amongst ourselves and to prepare for the tough fight we will face against John McCain in the Fall.

That's basically an implicit call for Hillary to concede, and it will be interesting to see if more Obama supporters start saying it now that the Florida and Michigan revotes are effectively dead.

The latest FEC reports appear to suggest that the Hillary campaign may be in the red:

Despite a strong month of fund-raising in February in which she brought in $35 million, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton finished the month essentially in the red, once her campaign’s outstanding debts are factored in, as well as her personal loan, according to filings submitted late last night to the Federal Election Commission.

After spending about $31 million in her efforts to keep up with Senator Barack Obama, Mrs. Clinton finished February with more than $33 million in cash on hand, but $21.5 million of that is earmarked exclusively for the general election, leaving her with $11.7 million for the primary.

Mrs. Clinton, however, loaned her campaign $5 million earlier this year and she listed $8.7 million in debts to various vendors, making clear why she has not yet paid herself back from her loan.

It should be noted, however, that Hillary isn't obliged to repay the $5 million debt to herself. Nonetheless, even factoring in that, once you subtract the other debts her cash on hand number would be in the neighborhood of $3 million.

By contrast, Obama has over $30 million on hand for the primary.

Here's where this really hurts: With the super-delegates. The Clintons' fundraising prowess has been one of the factors convincing the super-dels that this race isn't over and that they should wait out the contest. Revelations like this one could make it a good deal tougher to make this case.

Today's Gallup tracking poll shows that Barack Obama is starting to rebound after the Jeremiah Wright controversy dragged him down, but he still has ground to make up. Hillary Clinton currently leads 47%-45%, not as wide a lead as the 49%-42% advantage she held just two days ago.

Gallup's analysis notes that Obama's attempts to address the Wright flap, notably his Tuesday speech, might have been effective. But it's not all good news for him: "Still, Obama has yet to recover fully from the apparent damage done by the Wright controversy. It was only one week ago that Obama led the race by a significant six-point margin over Clinton, 50% to 44%."

Now this is pretty cutting. Not long ago I noted that one of the kids safely sleeping in stock footage in Hillary's red phone ad was now of voting age and had revealed herself to be an Obama supporter.

Now, the young woman, Casey Knowles, has cut a new Obama campaign web video directly denouncing Hillary, the ad, and the Clinton campaign's overall tactics.

They had a little fun making this one, clearly. Knowles says that Hillary "wanted to scare you into voting for her" by cutting a scary ad with frightful blue tinting and a narrator with a "scratchy voice."

"That little girl was me," Knowles says. "And I'm here to tell you that I'm not scared. I reject the politics of fear that Senator Clinton uses to scare up votes."

And the kicker:

"I'm Casey Knowles. I approved this message. And not the other one."

Rep. Don Young (R-AK), a TPMmuckraker all-star, may be in serious danger of defeat in the general election, even though Alaska hasn't voted to send a Democrat to either house of Congress since 1974.

The internal poll commssioned by Jake Metcalfe, one of the two Democratic candidates, finds Young trailing Metcalfe 45%-37%, and trailing a generic Democrat 41%-34%. Young also faces a primary challenge from Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell.

The poll was conducted from March 10-12 by Hays Research, a non-partisan Alaska pollster.

I got on the Hillary campaign conference call late because of the earlier Obama one, so I didn't hear Mark Penn's surprisingly disparaging take on the Bill Richardson endorsement, but luckily, someone else did:

“The time that he could have been effective has long since passed,” he continued, “I don’t think it is a significant endorsement in this environment.”

It's true that much of the voting in states with heavy Latino populations is behind us (assuming no Florida revote). But that's nonetheless a surprisingly dismissive assessment, given that Richardson is close to the Clintons, served in Bill's cabinet, and is the first major Latino candidate for president. Plus, this kind of endorsement will matter to establishment Dems and super-dels.

Obama spokesperson Bill Burton pounced on the comment, and is urging reporters to ask the Hillary campaign what Penn meant.

Burton emails: "Since I think they consider the coming contests to be of significance and since they also continue to court superdelegates, you are probably as confused as we are."

The first extensive poll of reactions to Obama's big race relations speech shows that while a lot of voters liked it, concerns remain about the underlying issue of his association with Jeremiah Wright.

The Rasmussen poll showed that 84% of likely voters saw at least some of the speech, with 51% of that group saying it was good or excellent, 26% saying it was fair, and 21% rating it poor. On the other hand, 56% say they remain somewhat or very "concerned" about his relationship with Wright.

Comparing this to the other major poll by Fox News, which looked a lot better for Obama, it seems like the way the question is phrased has a great effect on the answers. Fox didn't ask if people were concerned, but whether Obama's relationship with Wright caused them to have "doubts" about him, and they came up at only 35% Yes to 54% No.

Expect a lot of political consultants to study those distinctions.

This is interesting: On a conference call with reporters just now, Hillary spokesperson Phil Singer characterized the Obama campaign as "amateur hour."

Singer claimed that a discussion this morning on MSNBC suggested that the Obama campaign was trying to tie Camp Hillary to the breach of Obama's passport files.

"We will not tolerate being tied to this," Singer said, going on to describe the assertion as "reckless and frankly desperate." He added that it was a sign that the Obama campaign was "nervous" about their "political situation," concluding that it's "amateur hour over there."

One imagines that the Obama campaign will respond by pointing to the current popular vote and pledged delegate totals that Obama has amassed.

That aside, it seems like a valid question to ask whether the Obama campaign is really accusing the Hillary camp of being behind the passport files caper. We're going back to check the original MSNBC report and we'll keep you posted.

Barack Obama has his first new ad up in Pennsylvania, a 60-second bio spot introducing him to voters in a state where he's badly trailing Hillary Clinton in the polls.

"I first came to Chicago because I saw people who were being laid off of steel plants that were closing, and nobody was fighting for them," Obama says, a line sure to appeal to voters in blue-collar areas like Pittsburgh and Scranton.

One line also seems to be designed to preemptively deal with rumors about his religion: "As an organizer with Christian churches, I helped those workers, and took their fight to the state Senate, passing tax cuts and health care for working families."

Late Update: Here's the ad:

In a sign that the Obama camp may recognize that they haven't pushed back aggressively enough against Hillary's questioning of his electability, Obama advisers went after her electability today on a conference call.

To do this, Obama advisers unloaded big time on Hillary's character, hitting her character more aggressively than they have thus far by hammering away at the fact that some polls show that high numbers of voters view her as untrustworthy.

"We believe that this is a really important issue as super-delegates decide who will be electable in the fall," Plouffe said. "The American people are not going to elect someone who isn't seen as honest and trustworthy."

Plouffe added that she has "issues around trustworthiness" that would make it very tough sledding for her in the fall. Obama advisers have yet to point to McCain's alleged "straight-talking" to press this point, but one imagines that they will soon enough.

Keep in mind, as always, that the target of this argument is the super-dels. While the Obama campaign has already hit Hillary's character in the past by saying that she'll say and do anything to win, this attack on her honesty strikes me as the opening up of a major new front in the battle.

Late Update: The Hillary camp releases an extensive rebuttal to the Obama camp's charges.

A new Rasmussen poll shows that the state of Minnesota, which hasn't voted Republican for president since 1972 but has become much closer in recent cycles, could be a swing state again this time around:

McCain (R) 47%, Clinton (D) 46% Obama (D) 47%, McCain (R) 43%

The state has ten electoral votes, and it would be hard to imagine the Democrats taking the White House without winning here.

The Washington Post reports that Hillary Clinton's newly released first-lady schedules show Hillary's experience in foreign policy consisting of a mix of courtesy calls with foreign heads of state, combined with visits to important local areas and meetings with activists. The bottom line: Her experience isn't quite what the campaign has made it out to be — but is certainly a lot more than nothing, as many detractors have claimed.

"She wasn't representing the United States as secretary of state, chairman of the Joint Chiefs or U.S. trade representative," said an anonymous former State Department official. "But she was representing the United States, and she did have specific assignments."

"They made a mistake to exaggerate it," the official said, "and I think it's a mistake to under-appreciate it."

Some new fundraising statistics show that Barack Obama has beaten Hillary Clinton in both spending and cash on hand. During the month of February, Obama was spending at a rate of $1.5 million per day, compared to Hillary's $1 million per day — but Obama raised $55.4 million to Hillary's $34.5 million.

Meanwhile, Obama went into March with far more cash on hand for the primary. Of Hillary's cash going into March, only $11.3 million could be used for the primary, less than half of Obama's primary account. One caveat is that it's not yet known how the primary results this month have affected the money game.

Another observation from the Associated Press: "In a testament to the financial heft behind the Democrats, Obama and Clinton together spent more in a month than McCain has for the length of the year-long campaign."

A new Rasmussen poll shows first-term Sen. John Sununu (R-NH) trailing former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D), his 2002 opponent, by a decent margin. Here are the numbers, compared to Rasmussen's last poll in September:

Shaheen (D) 49% (+1)
Sununu (R) 41% (-2)

Sununu is the single most vulnerable incumbent GOP Senator this cycle, and has trailed Shaheen in nearly all polls since she declared her candidacy.

Bill Richardson, the New Mexico governor and former presidential candidate who earlier in the race had appeared anguished about having to decide whether to support Hillary or Obama, has decided to throw his backing to the Illinois Senator.

Early this morning, Richardson emailed out word of his decision to his list of supporters. Richardson has long been close to the Clintons, and was actively courted by Bill, and towards the start of his email he was careful to heap praise on Bill, Hillary, and the Clinton presidency:

I have made a decision to endorse Barack Obama for President....

My affection and admiration for Hillary Clinton and President Bill Clinton will never waver. It is time, however, for Democrats to stop fighting amongst ourselves and to prepare for the tough fight we will face against John McCain in the fall. The 1990's were a decade of peace and prosperity because of the competent and enlightened leadership of the Clinton administration, but it is now time for a new generation of leadership to lead America forward. Barack Obama will be a historic and a great President, who can bring us the change we so desperately need by bringing us together as a nation here at home and with our allies abroad.

Richardson is a big get for Obama and could help him make inroads among Latinos, one of Hillary's bedrock constituencies. In his statement, Richardson suggested that Obama's speech on race relations may have helped trigger his decision:

As a Hispanic, I was particularly touched by his words. I have been troubled by the demonization of immigrants--specifically Hispanics-- by too many in this country...

Senator Obama has started a discussion in this country long overdue and rejects the politics of pitting race against race. He understands clearly that only by bringing people together, only by bridging our differences can we all succeed together as Americans.

His words are those of a courageous, thoughtful and inspiring leader, who understands that a house divided against itself cannot stand.

In another statement, Richardson added: "I believe he is the kind of once-in-a-lifetime leader that can bring our nation together and restore America's moral leadership in the world."

And Richardson took direct issue with the Hillary camp's claim that Obama hasn't passed the "commander in chief test": “There is no doubt in my mind that Barack Obama has the judgment and courage we need in a commander in chief when our nation’s security is on the line."

Richardson is set to appear with Obama today at a campaign event in Portland, Oregon.

John Edwards just finished up taping his appearance on Jay Leno tonight -- it hasn't aired yet. The fact that he was appearing on the show prompted many to wonder whether he would use the appearance to endorse Hillary or Obama.

The answer: Nope. He didn't endorse either, according to Leno's publicist, Tracy St. Pierre, who emails me this:

No news...it was a catching up interview, but he didn't throw his support either way.

So no Edwards endorsement for now.

I missed this earlier, but it must be flagged. Asked about today's big story that her advisers are telling the super-dels that the Wright controversy should make them nervous about Obama's hopes in the general, Hillary demured:

When asked, Clinton ignored the Wright portion of the question and said "well my campaign has been making the case that I am the most electable that I have said that for a year or more that I am the person best able to make the challenges that our country faces as commander in chief."

When Clinton was then asked specifically if her campaign was pushing the Wright story -- she shrugged and took the next question, ignoring the reporter.

Subsequently, however, Hillary spokesperson Doug Hattaway offered some clarification to ABC News: "She was and is unaware of anyone on the campaign pushing [the Wright] issue with superdelegates. She wants anyone who is talking to superdelegates to focus on our message, which is that she's best prepared to be president and beat John McCain."

It's worth noting that when ABC asked the spokesperson whether Hillary was calling on advisers to refrain from using Wright as part of their argument, he said: "Since she is unaware of anyone doing that, I assume it hasn't come up."

A new poll from Fox News, the first major poll taken since Barack Obama's big speech on race relations, shows that the effect of the Jeremiah Wright flap might not be so bad after all.

By a 57%-24% margin, registered votes do not believe that Obama shares Wright's controversial views. The internals show only 17% of Democrats saying Obama shares Wright's ideas, along with 20% of independents and 36% of Republicans.

Fox also asked respondents whether they had doubts about Obama because of his association with Wright. The results: 35% Yes, 54% No, with the numbers standing at 26%-66% for Democrats, 27%-61% among independents, and 56%-33% with Republicans.

You already knew that the Michigan revote was dead, but here's a statement from the governor that makes it completely official:

"I believe Senator Levin, Congresswoman Kilpatrick, National Committeewoman Debbie Dingell, and UAW President Ron Gettelfinger identified the fairest way for Michigan voters to have a voice in seating a delegation in Denver. They recommended to the Democratic National Committee (DNC) that Michigan hold a state-run, privately funded primary. I supported their recommendation, as did the DNC, and I am deeply disappointed that it is no longer a possibility. Now that the Legislature has decided not to act, we will turn our attention to other options. There is no road to the White House that does not go through Michigan, so it is essential that Michigan voters have a voice in who will be our party’s nominee and, ultimately, the next president of the United States."

With the revote now officially "no longer a possibility," this thing could potentially end up turning into a nasty credentials committee and/or floor fight at the convention, if the contest is close enough that the missing delegates from Michigan and Florida would make the difference.

One of the big stories of the day is this one reporting that Hillary advisers say they've been using Jeremiah Wright to convince uncommitted super-delegates that Obama has an electability problem.

But at least one of Hillary's advisers didn't use that pitch when he tried to woo one uncommitted super-del this weekend:

"I got a call from Bill Clinton on Sunday," said Ivan Holmes, the chair of the Oklahoma Democratic Party. "He just said that he was trying to round up the super-delegates and the uncommitteds to give them some momentum. He said it was going to go down to the wire, and that it would sure be great if they could list some more super-delegates, that 'if we would just get two or three of you to move it would sure help, momentum-wise.'"...

Holmes said Clinton had not mentioned Jeremiah Wright to him, and described the former President's pitch as low-key.

Of course, if there's any Hillary adviser who would need to be extraordinarily careful to avoid mentioning Wright, it's Bill, given his profile.

Relatedly, we're on the lookout for stories in local papers around the country about super-delegates getting the Wright-makes-Obama-unelectable pitch from Hillary advisers. If you see anything, please send it along.

Today's Gallup tracking poll would seem to indicate that Obama's big speech on race relations might be starting to fix the damage from the Jeremiah flap.

Hillary Clinton is still ahead 48%-43%, not changed too much from yesterday's 49%-42% lead, but the pollster's analysis shows some movement happening within the daily samples:

Obama made a major speech on Tuesday addressing the race issue in large part to help move past the controversy. While Tuesday night polling showed no immediate benefit for Obama, the Wednesday results were more favorable to him, as reflected in the slight drop in Clinton's three-day average lead. This suggests at least the possibility that Obama has stopped his losses. The tracking data over the next several days will be a crucial indicator of the lasting impact, if any, of the Wright controversy.

A McCain campaign aide actively pushed an incendiary, racially-charged video that uses the controversial words of Barack Obama's pastor to tar Obama as unpatriotic -- despite the fact that McCain himself has suggested that Obama shouldn't be held accountable for Wright's views.

The aide, Soren Dayton, who works in McCain's political department, has been suspended from the campaign, a McCain spokesperson, Jill Hazelbaker, confimed to me.

The move by McCain's aide could create controversy for the McCain camp, because the video itself is thoroughly reprehensible -- it interweaves footage of Obama explaining why he won't wear the American flag pin, Wright saying "God damn America," Malcolm X, and Obama's wife saying that his candidacy has made her proud of America for the "first time."

That McCain's campaign aide spread this runs directly counter to what McCain himself has said about the Wright controversy. He suggested in a recent interview that Obama shouldn't be held liable for his pastor's views, and a top aide to McCain, Charlie Black, also recently suggested that McCain didn't believe in trafficking in such stuff.

Dayton posted the following on his own page at Twitter, a blog-hosting site..

Dayton described the video as a "good video on Obama and Wright." The link he provided leads to the Wright mash-up video on Youtube. A short time later the post was abruptly removed from his site, and an hour or so later, after I asked the McCain campaign for comment , Dayton's whole account was deleted.

A top McCain adviser, Charlie Black, explicitly said recently that McCain didn't think Obama should be held accountable for Wright's views.

"What Sen. McCain has said repeatedly, is that these candidates cannot be held accountable for all the views of people who endorse them, or people who befriend them," Black said recently. "I don't think Sen. McCain wants to get in the middle of a discussion about Sen. Obama's former pastor, or his faith. He believes that people who endorse you, people who befriend you are entitled to their own views, but you are not held personally accountable."

Asked for comment, McCain spokesperson Hazelbaker emailed me the following:

"We have been very clear on the type of campaign we intend to run and this staffer acted in violation of our policy. He has been reprimanded by campaign leadership and suspended from the campaign."

In a sign that the Obama camp is moving aggressively to switch from playing defense on race to hitting Hillary Clinton on issues, the campaign has put out a new memo/press release attacking Hillary for having reportedly lobbied members of Congress in favor of NAFTA during Bill Clinton's presidency, only to claim now that she was always a critic of it.

Key quote:

It's about trust.

Working Americans are looking for a President who will be consistent in standing up for American workers — and have the integrity to be consistent in his or her views. Senator Clinton has failed that test: though she now rails against NAFTA on the campaign trail, her records as first lady show that she actively lobbied for NAFTA's passage.

The memo also makes ample mention of how Hillary attacked Obama over NAFTA-gate in Ohio, and now appears to be guilty of the exact same offense — double-talk on free trade — going all the way back to 1993.

Full memo after the jump.

Late Update: The Hillary camp is online with their fact check and response.

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The new CBS News poll we posted on below has some numbers buried in the internals that might give Obama supporters pause.

They show that Obama's 10-point lead over McCain among independents has disappeared and has been replaced by an eight-point lead among them for the Arizona Senator, a fairly big swing. Here's the breakdown of independent registered voters, compared with those of last month:

McCain 46% (36% in Feb.)

Obama 38% ( 46% in Feb.)

The claim that Obama can do better than Hillary against McCain among independents is central to the Obama camp's pitch. Here, however, McCain's support against Obama among indys has gone up 10 points, while Obama's has dropped by eight. Meanwhile, Hillary gets 36% of indys against McCain -- two points lower than Obama.

The shift could be the result of the Wright controversy, or it could be related to the fact that Hillary is attacking Obama's commander-in-chief cred regularly while McCain floats along as the uncontested GOP nominee.

Of course, the poll was taken March 15-18 -- almost all before Obama's big race speech and his subsequent interviews about it. And there are some good general election numbers for Obama. He beats McCain by a larger margin than Hillary does, and he has the highest favorability rating of all three.

For the second time in two days, Obama is delivering a sweeping speech about the Iraq War -- and today he again is using the occasion to focus listeners on his presumed general election standoff with John McCain, this time highlighting the war's economic costs at home to deepen the contrast between the two.

Seeking to weave his criticism of the war into a broader vision for the presidency, including on domestic issues, Obama speech ticks off the various ways the fighting abroad has cost us at home: higher gas prices, a failure to invest in the nation's infrastructure, a continuing inability to wean ourselves from the "tyranny of oil."

And according to prepared remarks, the speech -- which is taking place in West Virginia -- blasts McCain's failure to grasp the domestic economic costs of the conflict...

So we know what this war has cost us – in blood and in treasure. But in the words of Robert Kennedy, “past error is no excuse for its own perpetuation.” And yet, John McCain refuses to learn from the failures of the Bush years.

Instead of offering an exit strategy for Iraq, he’s offering us a 100-year occupation. Instead of offering an economic plan that works for working Americans, he’s supporting tax cuts for the wealthiest among us who don’t need them and aren’t asking for them. Senator McCain is embracing the failed policies of the past, but America is ready to embrace the future.

When I am your nominee, the American people will have a real choice in November – between change and more of the same, between giving the Bush policies another four years, or bringing them to an end.

Obama also linked Hillary to McCain again, noting that together they'd backed the war. Interestingly, he also threw in some praise for the first President Bush and the first Gulf War, which he said was handled "in a responsible way" -- showcasing his oft-proclaimed willingness to reach across party lines and implicitly trying to make it clear that his antiwar posture doesn't amount to blanket opposition to war.

Full text after the jump.

Read more »

After months and months of touting the national polls when Hillary led in them, followed by a period of relative silence about them when Obama took the lead, Hillary pollster Mark Penn is back to trumpeting their significance again.

Penn is out with a new memo claiming that Obama's national lead has been "evaporating," and he's pointing to this as proof that he's been right all along in claiming that Obama's support would decline once he were thoroughly "vetted" (read: attacked relentlessly)...

The Gallup daily tracking poll shows Hillary leading Sen. Obama among Democrats by 7 points, and the latest Zogby/Reuters poll has Sen. Obama’s lead down from 14 points last month to just 3 points now. This suggests a strong swing in momentum in the race to Hillary since the Texas and Ohio primaries earlier this month.

The more that the voters learn about Barack Obama, the more his ability to beat John McCain is declining compared to Hillary. For a long time we have explained that poll numbers for a candidate who has not yet been vetted or tested are not firm numbers, and we are beginning to see that clearly.

It's key to keep in mind that these arguments about electability are not directed at the public or at rank-and-file Dems -- their real target is the super delegates. These claims appear to be part of the larger strategy of bloodying up Obama enough to sow sufficient doubt among the super dels about Obama's electability that they don't feel obligated to follow the winner of the pledged dels.

We'll bring you Obama's response as soon as we get it. Full Penn memo after the jump.

Read more »

Two Florida pols are floating an intriguing new proposal to get the state's delegation seated -- and calling on Hillary and Obama to support it.

The proposal is the work of state senators Steven Geller, the state senate's ranking Dem, and Jeremy Ring, both of whom are neutral. In an interview with me, Geller laid out how it would work.

Half of Florida's delegates would be awarded based on the January 29th vote, which Hillary won, 50%-33%.

The other half would be awarded based on some sort of framework that the two campaigns agreed to -- and could be based on any other reasonable metric, for instance, the national popular vote at the end of the day or on Florida polling.

"The Clinton camp wants all the votes to count," Geller told me. "The Obama camp wants none of the votes to count. So count half. Award half of the delegates based on January 29th. Then come up with some fair proposal for the others that the campaigns agree on. We're trying to set the framework" for an agreement.

What has to happen for such a thing to become real? Since the DNC has said it will do what the campaigns agreed to, Geller points out, the campaigns merely have to agree to a formula based on this framework.

"The two candidates need to show some leadership," Geller said. "They are trying to prove that they can negotiate with [world leaders]. They ought to be able to negotiate with each other."

Late Update: Another way of doing this suggested by Geller, which I should have mentioned earlier, is to apportion half the delegation based on the January 29th voting, and split the remaining half. The whole point of the proposal is to ask the campaigns to agree on a way of dividing the remaining half.

A new Rasmussen poll shows Hillary Clinton is way, way ahead in the West Virginia primary, with Hillary at 55% to Obama's 27%. The poll further shows that 35% of Clinton supporters say they'd be not at all likely to vote for Obama if he's the nominee.

The West Virginia primary will take place May 13, a week after the North Carolina and Indiana contests in which Obama is currently favored. The good news for Hillary is that she's got a big lead, but the bad news is that only 28 delegates will be at stake — so even a huge win probably wouldn't make for all that much of a pledged-delegate gain.

The Jeremiah Wright controversy has found its way not just into media coverage and the polls, but into the invisible primary for super-delegate support. Hillary advisers told the New York Times reports that they've been making the case to supers that Obama's associations with Wright would doom him and the party in the general election.

Tad Devine, a Democratic consultant not aligned with either camp, said Obama's speech on Tuesday went a long way in fixing the situation: "As a result, now these people who were so interested and awakened by his candidacy are back with him again. Instead of this being a setback, it becomes an opportunity."

It's still over seven months until the general election, but a pro-Republican group called the American Future Fund is already airing an ad in Minnesota to promote Sen. Norm Coleman (R) — a sign of just how seriously the GOP is taking this race, with Coleman facing a tough challenge from Al Franken.

The ad pitches Coleman as a bipartisan consensus-builder who gets things done for the state:

The group's media consultant says the spot will run for the next three weeks, on a six-figure ad buy.

A key DNC member has told the Boston Globe that there is no chance of the national party approving delegates for Michigan and Florida based on their January rogue primaries, if there were any chance of it actually affecting the outcome of the nomination — a blow to any local politicians who might have been seeking a compromise now that do-over primaries appear to be going nowhere.

Rules and bylaws committee cochairman James Roosevelt Jr., grandson of Franklin Roosevelt, said committee members are taking the long view beyond current considerations about carrying the respective states: "If there is simply a caving on this, we'll end up with primaries on Halloween, and so that does at least counter some of the purely political campaign influences here."

A new Franklin & Marshall College poll in Pennsylvania shows Hillary Clinton with a healthy 16-point lead for the primary. Here are the numbers, compared to their last poll from a month ago:

Clinton 51% (+7)
Obama 35% (+3)

The poll also shows that Barack Obama's favorability has taken a hit in the state, probably due in part to the Jeremiah Wright flap. His favorables among Dems stood at 47% to 25% unfavorable, compared to 57%-16% a month ago. Hillary's ratings are 65%-18%.

The poll was conducted before Obama's big speech this past Tuesday on race relations.

Yet another Republican swing seat has opened up in the House. Rep. Tom Reynolds (R-NY), the former NRCC head who barely survived his 2006 re-election over a lackluster opponent as a result of his implication in the Mark Foley scandal, will reportedly announce his retirement.

Reynolds' Upstate New York district went 55%-43% for President Bush in 2004, and 52%-45% for Bush in 2000. With the GOP suffering generally and in New York particularly, expect this sudden opening to be very closely contested this November.

The new CBS/New York Times poll shows Barack Obama ahead of Hillary Clinton nationally, though not by nearly as much as he was in their last poll from three-and-a-half weeks ago:

Obama 46% (-8)
Clinton 43% (+5)

Meanwhile, both Democrats lead McCain, with Obama doing better than Hillary:

Obama (D) 48%, McCain (R) 43%
Clinton (D) 46%, McCain (R) 44%

This poll was completed yesterday, meaning only a small number of interviews were conducted after Obama gave his speech on race relations on the Jeremiah Wright controversy.

The polls have been all over the place on just how badly the Wright matter hurt Obama, with this poll seeming to indicate the damage was real, but not too bad — though other polls have shown it to be somewhat worse.

Yesterday I reported that top Hillary supporter Ed Rendell had been rebuffed by billionaire George Soros when he asked the billionaire for help raising cash to fund a new Michigan primary.

Now, however, it looks as if Rendell and fellow Hillary supporter Jon Corzine have found enough Hillary donors who are willing to throw their financial weight behind the revote.

The duo have penned a letter to Michigan Governor Jennifer Granholm to say that they have "a list of individuals who, combined, are prepared to serve as guarantors to ensure that a total of up to $12 million will be deposited in the State of Michigan Presidential Primary Administration Fund by April 17, 2008."

We were also sent a copy of the letter, and you can read it in our TPM Document Collection.

The letter prompted a sharp response from Obama spokesperson Bill Burton: “This letter from some of Clinton’s biggest campaign contributors eliminates any pretense that Clinton’s efforts in Michigan are about anything other than an attempt to bankroll an election in which they appear more than happy to disenfranchise hundreds of thousands of voters. Today’s events are even more evidence that Clinton is willing to do absolutely anything to get elected."

It's worth noting, though that if no revote happens, then the votes of Michigan voters won't end up counting -- and that the Obama campaign's lack of support for the current revote proposal is a key factor preventing it from going forward. As Ben Smith notes, "Michigan officials continue to signal that without Obama's support, the proposal is dead."

Late Update: Hillary spokesperson Phil Singer emails over this response:

They refuse to keep their candidate’s pledge to support a new vote but have the audacity to complain that people outside their campaign want to ensure that Michigan taxpayers aren’t on the hook for financing a new election. Let’s be clear: The only thing stopping the Obama campaign’s supporters from helping to finance a new vote is Barack Obama’s insistence on disenfranchising voters in Michigan.

A new CNN poll shows that for the five-year anniversary of the invasion of Iraq, President Bush's approval rating is the lowest they've ever polled: 31% Approve, 67% Disapprove.

Looking back in history to the start of the Iraq War, Bush's approval stood at 71% in CNN's polling — meaning he's dropped 40 points as the war has dragged on interminably.

Obama did an interview with CNN's Anderson Cooper today which is set to air tonight, and CNN has posted some excerpts.

This, in which he acknowledges that the Wright controversy has "shaken" him, and flatly says it reminded him that the odds of him getting elected are lower than for "conventional" candidates like Hillary, seems striking:

"In some ways this, this controversy has actually shaken me up a little bit and gotten me back into remembering that the odds of me getting elected have always been lower than some of the other conventional candidates," the Illinois senator told CNN's Anderson Cooper in an exclusive one-on-one interview....

"If I was just running the textbook campaign -- doing the conventional thing, I probably wasn't going to win because Senator Clinton was going to be much more capable of doing that than I would be," he said. "We had tremendous success -- and I think we were starting to get a little comfortable and conventional right before Texas and Ohio."

Also note Obama's comment today on the situations in Florida and Michigan...

"I want the Michigan delegation and the Florida delegation to be seated. And however the Democratic National Committee determines we can get that done, I'm happy to abide by those rules."

Obama has said this before. But today, he's saying it on the same day that the DNC released a statement saying that the current proposal for a Michigan revote -- which the Obama camp hasn't assented to -- in fact would get it done within its rules.

Late Update: Some commenters are noting that Obama was referring here to the seating of the delegates, rather than to a revote, which I concede is a fair point. There isn't a direct contradiction here, but nonetheless, the DNC today did say that the current revote plan -- which would get the delegation sat -- would be within their rules, and Obama has not assented to it.

There are reports today that the Michigan revote is dead, and Obama's Michigan co-chair is saying that the votes aren't there in the state legislature to get a revote proposal passed.

But oddly enough, I'm told that private conversations are continuing right now between officials at the Democratic National Committee, the Michigan Democratic party, and the Hillary and Obama campaigns over ways to salvage some kind of last minute solution. Elizabeth Kerr, the spokesperson for the Michigan Dems, emails me:

I can confirm that discussion are ongoing with the DNC and both campaigns but cannot comment on the substance of those negotiations.

There's nothing in the Detroit News on the revote being dead, and the paper is reporting that several influential Michigan political players -- Senator Carl Levin, UAW chief Ron Gettelfinger and Democratic National Committeewoman Debbie Dingell -- are still gearing up to push the legislature one more time.

As best as I can understand it from talking to Michigan insiders, there's a sense that if a solution is agreed upon that Obama can support, then the situation in the state legislature could conceivably shift and it could conceivably pass. But it remains a long shot. There are no indications that Obama will shift his stance, and one aide to a Republican state senator put the chances of a revote happening at "two percent."

I'm trying to determine what's going on in the discussions and will keep you posted.

A new set of polls by SurveyUSA shows that Barack Obama's electability has taken a serious drubbing as a result of his recent setbacks, and he now does much poorer than Hillary Clinton does against John McCain in the three tested states:

Ohio
Clinton (D) 50%, McCain (R) 44%
McCain (R) 50%, Obama (D) 43%

Missouri
McCain (R) 48%, Clinton (D) 46%
McCain (R) 53%, Obama (D) 39%

Kentucky
McCain (R) 53%, Clinton (D) 43%
McCain (R) 64%, Obama (D) 28%

The internals show that in all three cases Obama gets a smaller share of the white vote than Hillary does, without room for his improvements among African-Americans to make up the difference.

(Via MyDD)

Late Update: One thing also worth noting is that these polls were conducted before Obama's speech yesterday on race relations, so we simply don't know yet what impact it might have in turning these numbers around.

One thing this contest has brought us is the advent of the attack video as official campaign statement, and the Hillary campaign is out with a new one today that seeks to revive the controversy over Samantha Power.

The vid shows footage of Obama saying we need a clear and unambiguous plan for exiting Iraq, and juxtaposes it with vid of the now-infamous interview Power gave to the BBC in which she seemed to suggest that Obama might not follow an Iraq plan announced during the campaign and that it might prove merely a "best case scenario."...

Given that this is a weeks-old story, the timing of its release is pretty obvious: The Hillary camp is hoping to use it to overshadow Obama's big Iraq speech today.

Today's Gallup tracking poll shows Hillary Clinton with a national lead over Barack Obama of 49%-42%, her first time since just after Super Tuesday that she led outside the margin of error, a sign that Barack Obama is still hurting from the Jeremiah Wright controversy.

The early numbers show that Obama's speech yesterday on race relations, widely hailed by the media, hasn't yet helped him in the polls. From Gallup's analysis: "The initial indications are that the speech has not halted Clinton's gaining momentum, as she led by a similar margin in Tuesday night's polling as compared to Monday night's polling."

In the general-election matches, the long Democratic race has clearly taken a toll on both candidates, who now trail John McCain by a few points each:

McCain (R) 47%, Obama (D) 43%
McCain (R) 48%, Clinton (D) 45%

With Hillary Clinton moving to get a new primary held in Michigan, the question is this: Even if she got her way, and a revote did happen, would it even make much of a difference to the overall contest?

Hillary personally visited Michigan today and aggressively called on Obama to support the plan for a revote, which the Obama camp has not done yet. You can view Hillary in Michigan here...

But what if she did get her revote? Would it matter? Just how much would a new primary help her close the delegate gap?

The answer: Probably not by much, and possibly quite the opposite.

We explain why, after the jump.

Read more »

A new survey from Public Policy Polling (D) shows a close race in the North Carolina primary, a heavily African-American contest where Obama is seen as the favorite. Here are the numbers, compared to their last poll from two weeks ago:

Obama 44% (-3)
Clinton 43% (+0)

From the internals: Obama leads 72%-19% among black voters, while Hillary is ahead 56%-30% with whites. With Obama having started out as the favorite here, a potential loss would seriously damage his candidacy and boost Hillary's chance at the nomination.

A separate PPP poll also shows Hillary performing stronger than Obama in the general election for Ohio, giving fuel to the Hillary camp's argument that they're more electable in key big states:

Clinton (D) 45%, McCain (R) 44%
McCain (R) 49%, Obama (D) 41%

In a direct shot at Hillary's claim that she has the "experience" to take on John McCain, Obama gave a speech today on the fifth anniversary of the Iraq War amplifying his case that his ability to draw a clear contrast with McCain will better equip him to win the national security argument with the Arizona Senator this fall.

And he said in terms that are as stark as any I've heard that Hillary's experience argument would prove a loser against McCain:

Senator Clinton says that she and Senator McCain have passed a “Commander in Chief test” -- not because of the judgments they’ve made, but because of the years they’ve spent in Washington. She made a similar argument when she said her vote for war was based on her experience at both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue.

But here is the stark reality: there is a security gap in this country -- a gap between the rhetoric of those who claim to be tough on national security, and the reality of growing insecurity caused by their decisions. A gap between Washington experience, and the wisdom of Washington’s judgments. A gap between the rhetoric of those who tout their support for our troops, and the overburdened state of our military.

It is time to have a debate with John McCain about the future of our national security. And the way to win that debate is not to compete with John McCain over who has more experience in Washington, because that’s a contest that he’ll win. The way to win a debate with John McCain is not to talk, and act, and vote like him on national security, because then we all lose.

The way to win that debate and to keep America safe is to offer a clear contrast, and that’s what I will do when I am the nominee of the Democratic Party – because since before this war in Iraq began, I have made different judgments, I have a different vision, and I will offer a clean break from the failed policies and politics of the past.

A new Zogby poll this morning shows Barack Obama ahead of Hillary Clinton nationally by a 47%-44% margin, a much tighter margin than his 52%-38% lead in their poll released on February 20, in the middle of his February sweep.

John McCain has also shot ahead of Obama since the last poll, and continues to lead Hillary Clinton, thanks in part to the continuing disorder of the Democratic race:

McCain (R) 46%, Obama (D) 40%
McCain (R) 48%, Clinton (D) 40%

The DNC, whose role in the fight over the Michigan revote has been largely a behind-the-scenes one, goes public this morning with its blessing for the current revote plan:

We have recently been asked whether the legislation as proposed by Michigan would fit within the framework of the National Party’s Delegate Selection Rules. Our review of this legislation indicates that it would, in fact, fit within the framework of the Rules if, it were, passed by the state legislature and used by the Michigan State Democratic Party as the basis of drafting a formal Delegate Selection Plan. If a formal Delegate Selection Plan is received we will convene a meeting of the RBC to consider such a Plan.

The DNC's statement would seem to put pressure on the Obama camp to get behind the plan.

What's unclear as of yet is whether DNC chair Howard Dean did anything behind the scenes to push the Obama camp to get behind the revote, something that top Hillary donors were demanding that Dean do.

Either way, if there isn't any agreement before the Michigan state legislature goes on recess later this week, the revote won't happen.

The DNC's formal blessing for the plan has also provoked a blistering attack from the Clinton camp on Obama, with the Hillary campaign pointing out that Obama had previously said he'd be fine with a revote if both campaigns had time to weigh in on it and the DNC signed off, which it has now done.

In a sign that the Obama campaign is effectively ruling out a new primary in Michigan, Obama campaign attorney Robert Bauer has put out a memo laying out all the legal and logistical difficulties that would be involved in getting a revote off the ground.

Bauer writes: "Whether the state can achieve its goals here depends on the nature and seriousness of the legal and administrative questions presented by this initiative — questions that, raised after the election, could put at risk the running of the election, undermine acceptance of the results if the election is held, and in both cases effectively deny Michigan voters, a second consecutive time, meaningful participation in the nominating process."

The Obama camp's opposition makes it all but certain that the revote won't happen.

The full memo is available after the jump.

Read more »

Al Sharpton gave some big news to his weekly Saturday rally: He loudly and proudly announced that he's for Obama, but is going to keep quiet about it.

"I won't either endorse you or not endorse you," Sharpton said. "But I will tell you I can be freer not endorsing you to help you and everybody else."

Although Barack Obama's speech yesterday on race relations was generally received very well by the media, Jonathan Martin reports that GOP consultants still see the Jeremiah Wright controversy as ripe material for attacking Obama in the general election.

"You don't have to say that he's unpatriotic, you don't question his patriotism," said Chris LaCivita, the Republican strategist who helped create the Swift Boat Veterans ads in 2004. "Because I guaran-damn-tee you that with that footage you don't have to say it."

"Obama knows that if somebody puts him in church on some day that Wright said some crazy [stuff] like white people injected blacks with AIDS he's in a world of hurt," said Rick Wilson, who made the 2002 ads tying then-Sen. Max Cleland, a disabled veteran, to Osama bin Laden and Saddam Hussein. "I would eat this up like cake."

In an interview with The Hill, Chuck Schumer was feeling bullish about the chances for Senate Democrats this November — so optimistic that he was considering an unprecedented third term as head of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee for the 2010 elections, coinciding with his own re-election campaign.

Schumer also tried to minimize any expectations about winning 60 seats for a filibuster-proof majority, but played up what the benefits of any significant gains would be. "Here's what I think: We get 55, 56, 57, 58, you will pick up enough Republicans on any single issue," Schumer said, adding that, "Yeah, you'd have to make certain compromises, but not give away the store."

Hillary Clinton is set to visit Michigan today, a last-minute addition to her schedule in order to agitate for a new primary to be held. Clinton Spokesman Mo Elleithee told the New York Times, "We will go and make the case for a revote."

The efforts to hold a new primary, after their January 29 rogue contest was stripped of any recognition by the DNC, represent a lifeline for Hillary in the delegate fight, where she's behind Obama by over 150 pledged delegates. It seems to have stalled in the legislature, though, and the Clinton team have accused the Obama camp of sabotaging the revote by not actively backing it.

Hillary Clinton has picked up the endorsement of Jack Murtha, the Pennsylvania Congressman and retired Marine whose 2005 turn against the Iraq War has made him a hero to many liberal activists.

It's more than a month to go until the Pennsylvania primary, so there's no telling just how much Murtha's support will help with anti-war voters, or how much he'll campaign for her. But it probably couldn't hurt.

Barack Obama has two new radio ads in Pennsylvania, focused on getting potential supporters registered to vote in time to support him in the state's closed primary.

One ad promotes Obama's agenda for students and younger people, with the announcer explaining the legalities of voter registration: "So even if you're a student, you can register to vote — but you've gotta register as a Democrat by March 24."

The other contains similar instructions, but is more of a pitch to older voters who might be Republicans and independents. It uses a key piece of audio from an Obama speech: "America is listening — not just Democrats, but Republicans and independents who've lost trust in their government but want to believe again."

A new poll out of Florida, commissioned by the St. Petersburg Times, gives some credence to the Hillary campaign's argument that the failure to seat the state's delegation could cause serious damage to the eventual Dem nominee this Fall.

If Florida's delegates are not counted, are you any less likely to support the Democratic candidate for president?

No, not less likely 66%
Yes, much less likely 14%
Yes, somewhat less likely 10%
Don't know/refused 9%

That's a full 24% of of Florida Democratic voters, saying this whole fiasco could cause them to sour on the national party and the eventual nominee.

As for a hypothetical new primary, at this point an impossibility, it would be a close race: Hillary 46%, Obama 37%.

(Via Ben Smith)

Top Hillary supporter and Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell privately appealed to billionaire George Soros for cash to help fund a new primary in Michigan -- a request that Soros is declining, a source familiar with their conversation tells Election Central.

A Soros spokesperson confirmed the account.

The private appeal by one of Hillary's most important national supporters to one of the wealthiest men in the country is yet another indication of just how hard the Hillary camp is working behind the scenes to get a Michigan revote -- and how many backstage angles they're working to make it happen.

According to the source, Rendell told Soros that they were looking for around 15 or 16 people to come up with the needed funds. "He said that the total figure they needed was $10 to $12 million," the source says.

Contacted for comment, Soros spokesperson Michael Vachon confirmed that the conversation had taken place and that the governor had indeed called Soros to request his financial support for a Michigan revote. But Vachon said Soros was declining the request.

"George Soros does not support holding another primary in Michigan because he believes doing so will further delay the selection of a Democratic candidate in November," Vachon said.

The Hillary camp cranked up the pressure on the Obama campaign over the Michigan revote today, demanding that Obama make a public and active push to make a revote happen by supporting the current proposal for a June 3rd rerun of the election.

On a conference call with reporters, senior Hillary adviser Harold Ickes repeated an insinuation that Hillary's Michigan co-chair, former Governor Jim Blanchard, made to me a little while ago: That the Obama campaign is using professed procedural concerns to deliberately run out the clock on the possibility of a revote.

"I know the Obama people are going around saying, `We don't need a rerun.' They're sort of winking," Ickes said. "We are saying that Senator Obama's campaign does not want a primary...There's only one hold-up: Senator Obama. Period. End of story."

The Obama camp has not taken a position on the proposal.

Interestingly, Ickes also claimed that the Democratic National Committee had privately signaled its support for the Michigan revote plan, which could up the pressure on Obama to accept it. I've checked in with a DNC spokesperson on this.

It's unclear, however, whether the Hillary camp's charges -- and the Obama camp's refusal to actively push to make a revote happen -- carry any meaningful political risk for him at this point.

One of Hillary's most important supporters in Michigan, former Governor Jim Blanchard, went way off message in a conversation with me moments ago, saying that even if a revote were held in the state, it would likely be so close that it wouldn't make much of a material difference in the delegate count.

"I think if we had a vote in Michigan, it could easily be close," Blanchard told me. "The amount of delegates wouldn't make much difference."

Blanchard's claim is significant, since the Hillary campaign points to a revote in Michigan as one of their key routes towards closing the delegate gap.

Blanchard made the comments in the context of a conversation about the Obama camp's posture towards a revote, suggesting that the Obama campaign's hesitancy over it was surprising, since (in his estimation) it probably wouldn't affect the race's overall outcome that much.

Blanchard also made something of an inflammatory accusation, saying that Obama's two Michigan co-chairs -- state senators Tupac Hunter and Buzz Thomas -- were deliberately slowing the progress of the revote in the Michigan legislature at the direction of Obama national headquarters.

Hunter has said he has concerns about the logistics of the current revote plan, and earlier today the news broke that it didn't have the support in the state legislature it needs to pass. Blanchard suggested that the opposition was being orchestrated by the Obama campaign via the two state senators.

"They're very talented state senators; they're obviously operating under instructions to prevent a vote," Blanchard said. "Preventing a vote is a huge mistake [that could prevent] winning in the fall. I hope they reconsider."

Hillary, in a speech broadcast on CNN moments ago, had this to say about Obama's big race speech:

"I did not have a chance to see or to read yet Sen. Obama's speech. But I'm very glad that he gave it. It's an important topic. Issues of race and gender in America have been complicated throughout our history, and they are complicated in this primary campaign.

"There have been detours and pitfalls along the way. But we should remember that this is an historic moment for the Democratic Party, and for our country. We will be nominating the first African-American or woman for the Presidency of the United States, and that is something that all Americans can and should celebrate."

A day after Florida Dems nixed a revote in the state, local news in Detroit is reporting that Michigan's revote is in big trouble, too.

Apparently, Michigan state Senate Dems met behind closed doors today and emerged saying that there are not enough votes to approve a revote, and legislative approval is necessary to making it happen.

Separately, Ben Smith spoke to Obama Michigan co-chair Tupac Hunter, who said that there's "overwhelming" reluctance to approving the revote.

The rub here is that the window is closing rapidly -- if something isn't agreed upon soon, there simply won't be any time for a revote to get the approval it needs. And it won't happen.

If Obama's speech was, as I argued below, partly a call for the keepers of our political discourse to rise above themselves and do better, the headline writers at the major networks appear to be struggling to process this message.

A number of you have written in to point out some of the more absurd ones, such as this one from MSNBC...

Obama: Racial anger is "real"

...and this one from CNN...

Obama: Constitution stained by 'sin of slavery'

These, of course, are focusing on the small and petty at the expense of the largeness of the speech's message.

...but wait, take heart! Both those headlines have been changed. CNN's new one is: Obama: "We can move beyond some of our racial wounds." And MSNBC's new effort is: "Obama tackles race anger in major speech."

So it looks as if there is a bit of an effort underway at the nets to grapple with the major themes sounded here.

One other interesting moment from Obama's speech, which has now concluded.

Obama's speech, throughout, asks its listeners to transcend themselves -- it asks them to choose nuance over cartoonish political controversy; it asks them to acknowledge stuff about race they don't want to acknowledge; it asks them to think big instead of small.

In this spirit, at one point Obama appears to be offering an indictment of our very political discourse...

We can play Reverend Wright’s sermons on every channel, every day and talk about them from now until the election, and make the only question in this campaign whether or not the American people think that I somehow believe or sympathize with his most offensive words. We can pounce on some gaffe by a Hillary supporter as evidence that she’s playing the race card, or we can speculate on whether white men will all flock to John McCain in the general election regardless of his policies.

We can do that.

But if we do, I can tell you that in the next election, we’ll be talking about some other distraction. And then another one. And then another one. And nothing will change.

That is one option. Or, at this moment, in this election, we can come together and say, “Not this time.”

The reference there to Geraldine Ferraro is noteworthy, since Obama's supporters, too, "pounced" on Geraldine Ferraro's racially-charged remarks as evidence that Hillary "played the race card." Also note the reference to white men "flocking" to McCain in the general election -- a condemnation of the empty arguments about "electability" you so often hear from the pundits.

Obama is basically demanding here that the practitioners of our political discourse do better. It's a challenge to the commentators and to the rival campaigns, of course. But the Ferraro reference suggests that it's also a challenge that some of his own supporters should take as directed at them, too. To not do this would be at odds with the true spirit of his remarks.

Obama is now giving his speech. An odd but telling moment: After he hits a whole series of high rhetorical notes about slavery, American history, and our nation's common purpose, the first line that gets a serious round of applause is this one...

The fact is that the comments that have been made and the issues that have surfaced over the last few weeks reflect the complexities of race in this country that we’ve never really worked through – a part of our union that we have yet to perfect. And if we walk away now, if we simply retreat into our respective corners, we will never be able to come together and solve challenges like health care, or education, or the need to find good jobs for every American.

Yet another reminder of how paramount bread-and-butter concerns are to your average Dem primary voter.

We have a full transcript of Obama's big race speech for you after the jump. He's set to deliver it in Philadelphia within moments.

Reading it, you can't escape the fact that in various ways it represents a massive break with conventional political precedent.

In the speech Obama goes big big big, quite consciously presenting his personal story -- and candidacy -- as both symbol and realization of American history...

I am the son of a black man from Kenya and a white woman from Kansas. I was raised with the help of a white grandfather who survived a Depression to serve in Patton’s Army during World War II and a white grandmother who worked on a bomber assembly line at Fort Leavenworth while he was overseas. I’ve gone to some of the best schools in America and lived in one of the world’s poorest nations. I am married to a black American who carries within her the blood of slaves and slaveowners -- an inheritance we pass on to our two precious daughters. I have brothers, sisters, nieces, nephews, uncles and cousins, of every race and every hue, scattered across three continents, and for as long as I live, I will never forget that in no other country on Earth is my story even possible.

It’s a story that hasn’t made me the most conventional candidate. But it is a story that has seared into my genetic makeup the idea that this nation is more than the sum of its parts – that out of many, we are truly one.

And of course he addresses the Wright controversy, conceding that he sat silent in the church while Wright said "controversial" things...

I have already condemned, in unequivocal terms, the statements of Reverend Wright that have caused such controversy. For some, nagging questions remain. Did I know him to be an occasionally fierce critic of American domestic and foreign policy? Of course. Did I ever hear him make remarks that could be considered controversial while I sat in church? Yes. Did I strongly disagree with many of his political views? Absolutely – just as I’m sure many of you have heard remarks from your pastors, priests, or rabbis with which you strongly disagreed.

...but he defends Wright as much more than the whackjob that's been burning up You Tube of late, a move that in itself could be seen as a break with political precedent, in that he's asking voters to look beyond the cartoon of controversy to see a more complex picture...

The man I met more than twenty years ago is a man who helped introduce me to my Christian faith, a man who spoke to me about our obligations to love one another; to care for the sick and lift up the poor. He is a man who served his country as a U.S. Marine; who has studied and lectured at some of the finest universities and seminaries in the country, and who for over thirty years led a church that serves the community by doing God’s work here on Earth -- by housing the homeless, ministering to the needy, providing day care services and scholarships and prison ministries, and reaching out to those suffering from HIV/AIDS...

As imperfect as he may be, he has been like family to me...I can no more disown him than I can disown the black community.

...and says that rather than approach the Wright controversy in a conventional way, he wants to use it as an occasion to initiate a broader discussion of race in America...

But race is an issue that I believe this nation cannot afford to ignore right now. We would be making the same mistake that Reverend Wright made in his offending sermons about America – to simplify and stereotype and amplify the negative to the point that it distorts reality.

The fact is that the comments that have been made and the issues that have surfaced over the last few weeks reflect the complexities of race in this country that we’ve never really worked through – a part of our union that we have yet to perfect. And if we walk away now, if we simply retreat into our respective corners, we will never be able to come together and solve challenges like health care, or education, or the need to find good jobs for every American.

...and he unapologetically says that Wright's rhetoric -- and its appeal -- is rooted in the anger of victims of discrimination, though he's also careful to note that black anger "often proved counterproductive" and that white resentments are sometimes "grounded in legitimate concerns"...

But for all those who scratched and clawed their way to get a piece of the American Dream, there were many who didn’t make it – those who were ultimately defeated, in one way or another, by discrimination. That legacy of defeat was passed on to future generations – those young men and increasingly young women who we see standing on street corners or languishing in our prisons, without hope or prospects for the future. Even for those blacks who did make it, questions of race, and racism, continue to define their worldview in fundamental ways. For the men and women of Reverend Wright’s generation, the memories of humiliation and doubt and fear have not gone away; nor has the anger and the bitterness of those years. That anger may not get expressed in public, in front of white co-workers or white friends. But it does find voice in the barbershop or around the kitchen table. At times, that anger is exploited by politicians, to gin up votes along racial lines, or to make up for a politician’s own failings.

And occasionally it finds voice in the church on Sunday morning, in the pulpit and in the pews.

Full text of the speech after the jump.

Late Update: It can also be argued that the speech is basically a sweeping indictment of our abysmal political discourse.

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Obama's big speech today on race, which is set to start within minutes, grew from his sense that he'd failed to adequately explain his relationship to Jeremiah Wright:

After removing Mr. Wright from a religious advisory committee on his campaign on Friday, Mr. Obama concluded over the weekend that he had not sufficiently explained his association with the pastor. He told several aides he was worried that if voters did not hear directly from him — in the setting of a major speech — doubts and questions about him might grow.

There's an irony here worth noting -- or a potential irony, anyway. Even without the latest Wright controversy, there had already been plenty of questions simmering about Obama's race and religion -- witness the Muslim smear that won't die, for example. If Obama's speech today is a success, it could put such questions to rest and indeed give a deeper historical dimension to his candidacy than it already has.

Should that happen, it will be worth pondering that it might not have happened if the controversy over Wright hadn't forced Obama to shove his chips onto something as ambitious and risky as he's about to attempt today. So it's not impossible to imagine that the Wright controversy, as damaging as it now seems, could conceivably prove to be a key turning point in his favor.

Stranger things have happened in politics.

A new USA Today/Gallup poll casts some doubt on the political viability of Hillary Clinton's strategy to secure the Democratic nomination via super-delegates. By a 55%-37% margin, Democratic and Dem-leaning respondents said it would be "flawed" and "unfair" if Obama were to win more elected delegates but see Hillary override him via the supers.

This opinion is held by 77% of Obama supporters — expected, because the question specifically posed him as the pledged-delegate winner — but also among 28% of Hillary's supporters. Almost two-thirds of independents said such an outcome would be unfair, and one-third of indies said they would vote Republican or stay home if it were to happen.

The new CNN poll shows Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton both in statistical dead heats against John McCain:

Obama (D) 47%, McCain (R) 46%
Clinton (D) 49%, McCain (R) 47%

From the internals: Hillary does better than Obama among older voters, women and core Democrats, while Obama does better at attracting younger voters and crossover Republicans and independents.

The Texas Democratic Party has announced that their district conventions, the second step in the caucus process, will not be delayed as requested by the Hillary Clinton campaign, and will proceed as scheduled on March 29.

The Hillary campaign had asked that the conventions be postponed in order to double-check the eligibility of the more than one-million caucus participants, and potentially discard the votes of people who might have been found to be ineligible. Hillary won the Texas primary by a four-delegate margin, while Barack Obama won the caucuses by more than that, though the numbers aren't known yet with total certainty.

The statement by the Texas Dems practically ridiculed the Hillary campaign: "The Texas Democratic Party will not do as suggested by one campaign and circumvent party rules to set up an unnecessary, ad hoc 'verification' process that could effectively disqualify delegates selected at their precinct conventions after the fact."

The race for the Democratic nomination isn't settled yet, but a coalition of outside liberal groups is already gearing up for the general election race. The coalition, made up of groups like MoveOn, the AFL-CIO, the Change to Win labor federation and others will be announcing a $350 million effort for voter mobilization and advocacy this Fall.

Past election cycles have of course seen independent political activities on behalf of a particular side, but this one is being billed as the largest ever single coordinated effort. One potential pitfall: If Barack Obama is the Democratic nominee, he might be put on the spot about this group's activities versus his own policies against outside groups spending on his behalf.

Barack Obama is set to give his big speech on racial issues this morning, at 10:15 a.m. ET at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia.

The New York Times reports that Obama was still personally working on the speech Monday night, and his wife Michelle quickly changed her schedule in order to accompany him for the speech.

Some aides were reportedly against giving the speech, but Obama himself has apparently realized he has to address some of the issues surrounding racial polarization, especially in light of the Jeremiah Wright controversies and his membership in Wright's church.

Expect a lot of comparisons between this address and JFK's speech about the Catholic Church — and some questions about whether this will be any more successful than Mitt Romney's JFK speech about Mormonism.

The new Quinnipiac University poll (no link available yet) finds that Hillary is now leading Obama in Pennsylvania by 12 points among likely Dem voters, 53%-41%, double the six-point lead she held in the state in late February.

The survey also finds that the electorate in the state has grown more polarized as Hillary's support among whites has grown to 61% while Obama's lead among blacks has jumped to 76%. She's firmed up her base in other areas, too, increasing her lead among women and cutting into his lead among men -- movement that Quinnipiac concludes has given her a burst of momentum in the state.

The poll was taken March 10-16, meaning that for several days polling took place during the raging controversy over the incendiary remarks by Obama's pastor, Jeremiah Wright -- suggesting the likelihood that the comments (for the time being, anyway) have polarized the electorate and boosted Hillary's white support.

New York's new Governor David Paterson made a startling admission to the New York Daily News in an interview this past weekend, just being published tonight. Starting in 1999, Paterson had an extra-marital affair lasting about two or three years, and his wife Michelle also had an affair during this period in their marriage.

"This was a marriage that appeared to be going sour at one point," Paterson said. "But I went to counseling and we decided we wanted to make it work. Michelle is well aware of what went on."

It's an amazing confession from a governor who has taken office because of a sex scandal ruining his predecessor — though in this case his admitted past infidelity would seem to pale in comparison to Eliot Spitzer's habitual use of outrageously top-dollar prostitutes. It was probably a good idea to get it out of the way as soon as possible, so he can get on with governing the state.

As I noted below, Bill Kristol had to append a correction to today's column, after the Obama campaign convinced him that his claim that Obama had attended a controversial Jeremiah Wright sermon was, well, false.

Kristol had cited, of all things, a piece on Newsmax by Ronald Kessler as the source for the tall tale. Kessler's piece, too, featured an update that acknowledged error -- sort of, anyway.

But there's been an amusing epilogue to this otherwise dispiriting tale.

It turns out Kessler has been busy today scrubbing references to this episode of fact-bungling from his page at Wikipedia.

A reader emailed me the editing history of his page, and it shows one "KesslerRonald" editing out a big chunk of text describing various Kessler "controversies," including the whole Newsmax/Obama/Kristol/Wright screw-up.

I checked in with Kessler himself, and he confirmed that he had done the deed. He said he'd cut out the reference to his own fact-bungling because it also contained a reference to an article criticizing him for his stance on torture -- and that all of this was part of the same "left-wing" assault.

"Someone today added all this negative material, which is all from a left-wing perspective," Kessler said. "And I took that out...I thought of that as all being part of the same package, just a total assault."

Someone, alas, has returned the offending material to Kessler's page, however. And it appears he's given up on scrubbing it: He tells me that this time, he's going to leave it in.

In a statement, Florida Dem party chair Karen Thurman has just made it official: Florida state officials have nixed the possibility of a revote altogether:

Last week, the Florida Democratic Party laid out the only existing way that we can comply with DNC Rules - a statewide revote run by the Party - and asked for input.

Thousands of people responded. We spent the weekend reviewing your messages, and while your reasons vary widely, the consensus is clear: Florida doesn't want to vote again.

So we won't.

A party-run primary or caucus has been ruled out, and it's simply not possible for the state to hold another election, even if the Party were to pay for it. Republican Speaker of the Florida House Marco Rubio refuses to even consider that option. Florida is finally moving to paper ballots, which is a good thing, but it means that at least 15 counties do not have the capacity to handle a major election before the June 10th DNC primary deadline.

This doesn't mean that Democrats are giving up on Florida voters. It means that a solution will have to come from the DNC Rules & Bylaws Committee, which is scheduled to meet again in April.

But no revote. It's all but certain that whatever solution does eventually emerge won't seat the delegation in its current breakdown. So this is rough news for Hillary.

Full statement after the jump.

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The Obama campaign confirms that they received a proposal today for Michigan revote legislation -- and says they're considering it.

Here's the statement, just out from Obama spokesperson Tommy Vietor, which confirms that the campaign is reviewing the proposal and uses the occasion to whack Hillary...

“Considering the fact that Senator Clinton is currently trying to prevent and delay votes in Texas from being counted because she didn't like the outcome, it's pretty apparent that the Clinton campaign’s views on voting are dependent on their own political interest.

Hillary Clinton herself said in January that the Michigan primary “didn’t count for anything.” Now, she is cynically trying to change the rules at the eleventh hour for her own benefit. We received a very complex proposal for Michigan re-vote legislation today and are reviewing it to make sure that any solution for Michigan is fair and practical. We continue to believe a fair seating of the delegation deserves strong consideration.”

Earlier today the news broke that the Obama camp was saying they wouldn't back the plan without seeing the specifics first. Now they have them.

This proposal, though it hasn't been released publicly, is almost certainly for a revote on June 3rd -- the same plan that Michigan Dems confirmed late last week that they were considering.

Late Update: The Associated Press has some of the details of the proposal -- it approves spending privately raised funds for the election and as expected sets the date for June 3.

In an interview to be broadcast on PBS, Obama gave an answer to the Wright and Rezko questions that we haven't heard before.

The gist of it was that he hasn't distanced himself from these figures as much as he might have because he hasn't been in Washington long enough...

MS. IFILL: Do you think that your association with those two people or people we don’t know about would raise questions about your judgment?

SEN. OBAMA: Well, no, look, all of us have people in our lives who we meet, we get to know, in some cases form friendships with, who end up getting themselves into trouble or say things that we don’t agree with. And probably what’s true is because I haven’t been in Washington as long as Senator Clinton or others that I have not distanced myself from these people for as long a period of time as somebody more steeped in Washington politics might have.

But keep in mind, on all these issues, there is no allegations that I’ve done anything wrong, just as in the situation with Reverend Wright there is no allegation that I’ve said something that was inappropriate.

I'm not sure precisely how to parse this. It seems like Obama is saying either that (a) He would have distanced himself more from them if he were better versed in the ways and wiles of Washington politics; or (b) that he would have distanced himself more if he'd had more time in Washington to do this. Or a bit of both.

Either way, he's arguing that the fact that he didn't distance himself further from these figures is indicative of something positive.

A new CNN poll gives Barack Obama the national lead against Hillary Clinton, with a full 52% majority for Obama against 45% for Hillary. This is the first national CNN poll where Obama has broken 50%, though their last poll predated Super Tuesday.

From the internals: Obama and Hillary each to well with demographics that have trended their way in recent primaries: Young voters, men and Dem-leaning independents for Obama, and women, older voters and whites for Hillary.

On the question of super-delegates, a narrow plurality of respondents sided with the Clinton campaign's argument — 49% said supers should vote based on who they think is the best candidate, compared to 46% who say supers should follow the primaries and caucuses.

Barack Obama responded strongly today to Hillary Clinton's speech about Iraq, in which she accused him of choosing "silence" instead of truly opposing the Iraq War until he ran for president. His answer: Hillary is arguing about how to end a war she voted to authorize.

"It's not enough to stand up five years later in the heat of a campaign and say that you're ready on day one – you have to be right on day one," Obama said at a campaign event in Pennsylvania.

"On the war in Iraq, Senator Clinton's judgment was wrong. If we had followed my judgment, we wouldn't be standing here five years later debating how to end the war in Iraq, because we never would have fought it."

He later added: "I'm not about to allow Senator Clinton to get away with saying this is just about speeches," he said. "Because of that vote, we are less safe and less respected at home."

Barack Obama is set to deliver a major speech tomorrow on racial issues — a sign that the campaign realizes they have to directly address the Jeremiah Wright controversy and the larger racial implications and polarization of the campaign.

"I am going to be talking about not just Reverend Wright, but the larger issue of race in this campaign," Obama told reporters about a half-hour ago, adding that part of the speech would be about how racial issues are perceived from within the black church.

Today's Gallup tracking poll shows Hillary Clinton taking a narrow national lead over Barack Obama. Here are the numbers, compared to the poll from yesterday:

Clinton 47% (+2)
Obama 45% (-3)

From Gallup's analysis: "While not statistically significant, Clinton's two percentage point advantage in today's report is a notable shift, particularly in light of the political storm Obama has faced over the past few days concerning controversial political statements made by the former pastor of his Chicago church."

For the general-election matches, John McCain is narrowly leading Obama while tying against Hillary:

McCain (R) 46%, Obama (D) 44%
Clinton (D) 46%, McCain (R) 46%

Late Update: A separate USA Today/Gallup poll gives different horse-race numbers against McCain:

Clinton (D) 51%, McCain (R) 46%
Obama (D) 49%, McCain (R) 47%

In his latest column, Bill Kristol falsely claimed -- based on reporting by Newsmax, of all things -- that Obama had attended Trinity Church last July 22nd, when Wright blamed blamed the “arrogance” of the “United States of White America” for much global suffering.

The Obama campaign responded with an aggressive fact-check last night, saying that, no, in fact Obama was not at the service.

Finally, at least half a day later, Kristol has appended the following to his column:

In this column, I cite a report that Sen. Obama had attended services at Trinity Church on July 22, 2007. The Obama campaign has provided information showing that Sen. Obama did not attend Trinity that day. I regret the error.

"Report" is a rather kind way of describing the original Newsmax piece, but hey, at least Kristol finally got around to correcting it. One has to wonder how Times editors feel about the fact that their august Op ed page is actually printing information based on the "reporting" of such a comically disreputable outlet.

Late Update: For much more on Newsmax, Kessler, and Obama, go here.

If the numbers in this new Rasmussen poll are an accurate reflection of the electorate's sentiments, it would seem that Obama has not sufficiently distanced himself from his pastor, Jeremiah Wright, despite an aggressive media push on his part to do just that:

Most voters, 56%, said Wright’s comments made them less likely to vote for Obama. That figure includes 44% of Democrats. Just 11% of voters say they are more likely to vote for Obama because of Wright’s comments...

Overall, voters are evenly divided as to whether Obama should resign his membership in the Church—42% say that he should while 40% disagree. White voters, by a 46% to 33% margin, say that Obama should leave the Church. African-American voters, by a 68% to 16% margin, say he should not.

The poll also finds that Obama's favorability rating fell to 47%, down five points from last Thursday -- a drop that according to Rasmussen shows that the Wright story "has had at least a temporary impact on public perceptions of Obama," though it strikes me as a stretch to read this as being solely because of Wright.

The poll also finds that Wright has a comically abysmal favorability rating of eight percent.

Hillary Clinton gave her big speech about the Iraq War this morning, setting out to dominate the news cycle on the issue as we come upon the five-year anniversary of the original invasion.

The speech seemed to have three goals: 1) Establish Hillary's foreign policy bona-fides; 2) Discredit John McCain to her right, as a continuation of the Bush policies; and 3) Discredit Barack Obama to her left, as being so much empty talk without action, before he can mark the anniversary by attacking her original vote to authorize the war.

"Despite the evidence, President Bush is determined to continue his failed policy in Iraq until he leaves office," said Clinton. "And Senator McCain will gladly accept the torch and stay the course, keeping troops in Iraq for up to 100 years if necessary."

And as for Barack Obama: "Senator Obama holds up his original opposition to the war on the campaign trail, but he didn't start working aggressively to end the war until he started running for president. So when he had a chance to act on his speech, he chose silence instead."

The full speech is available after the jump, and we'll have some video soon.

Late Update: Here are some clips from the speech:

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Last week we reported here that a compromise on a redo primary in Michigan was looking more likely.

But now it looks as if the plan's in limbo -- because the Obama campaign and its Michigan co-chair have yet to sign off on the plan. The Detroit News has the latest...

State lawmakers looking at a Democratic presidential primary redo in Michigan appear to be locked in a standoff heading into a crucial week: Legislative leaders say the U.S. Sen. Barack Obama camp needs to agree to the repeat election before legislation is written, and Obama supporters say they must see the bill before signing off on the plan.

Whether Michigan has a do-over primary in June depends on resolving that issue.

State Sen. Tupac Hunter, D-Detroit, said Sunday that allies of U.S. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton are bent on a do-over primary to enable their candidate to try to pull up to Obama in the presidential race. Hunter said he won't sign off on a repeat election unless he sees detailed legislation answering his concerns...

Hunter added that he isn't absolutely opposed to a proposed do-over contest in Michigan.

But he wants to see the money to pay for it up front and won't agree to legislation "with a promise from governors who are Clinton supporters that they'll raise the money at some point and meanwhile Michigan taxpayers have to put the money out first. The money has to be in the treasury first. That's just fiscally prudent."

The trouble is that this might not be possible, given the timing. And Clinton supporters in Michigan are arguing that legislative leaders won't spend time working out those details in the first place without a preliminary nod of approval from the Obama camp -- leading Hillary spokesperson Phil Singer to allege that the Obama camp is "blocking the people of Michigan from being able to vote."

But the Obama campaign denies that it's raising procedural objections in order to stop the revote from happening.

A new SurveyUSA poll from Minnesota gives Sen. Norm Coleman (R) a ten-point lead over Al Franken, an improvement for Coleman since their last poll a month ago:

Coleman (R) 51% (+4)
Franken (D) 41% (-5)

From the internals: Coleman has a 53%-39% lead among independents, and also is found to be leading 52%-39% among votes under the age of 35.

Hillary Clinton is set to deliver a major speech this morning outlining her policies for Iraq, part of a planned week-long offensive on the issue coinciding with the five-year anniversary of the invasion.

Meanwhile, the campaign has put out a memo challenging Barack Obama's ability deliver on his anti-war rhetoric. "This week, the Clinton Campaign will continue to discuss which candidate is ready to be Commander-in-Chief on day one," the memo says. "We will urge Senator Obama to show that he hasn't simply amassed five years of words, that his record on ending the war is one of action."

The full memo is available after the jump.

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The story-line about "Limbaugh Democrats" — Republicans now voting in Democratic primaries simply to boost Hillary Clinton's shot at the nomination — is getting some major pick-up in this morning's Boston Globe.

The Globe notes that the Republican share of the vote in Texas, Ohio and Mississippi was higher than it had been in previous Democratic races, and Hillary Clinton's share of their vote also increased dramatically in the exit polls. The paper also describes it as "possible, though perhaps unlikely" that mischievous crossover voters delivered a win to Hillary in the Texas primary — she received an estimated 119,000 GOP voters there, with an overall margin of victory of around 101,000.

Today's Gallup tracking poll gives Barack Obama a three-point national lead over Hillary Clinton, a margin unchanged since yesterday:

Obama 48% (-1)
Clinton 45% (-1)

On the other hand, Obama now trails John McCain by a three-point margin, a possible sign that the Jeremiah Wright controversy has been a drag on his general election numbers:

McCain (R) 47%, Obama (D) 44%
Clinton (D) 46%, McCain (R) 46%

The Trinity United Church of Christ in Chicago has put out a press release condemning the media attacks against retired pastor Jeremiah Wright as an attack upon the whole African-American religious tradition and its place in black culture.

"The African American Church was born out of the crucible of slavery and the legacy of prophetic African American preachers since slavery has been and continues to heal broken marginalized victims of social and economic injustices," the release says. "This is an attack on the legacy of the African American Church which led and continues to lead the fight for human rights in America and around the world."

Full statement after the jump.

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Barack Obama has a three-point lead in Saturday's Gallup tracking poll, down slightly from the six-point lead he enjoyed on Friday. Here are the numbers, compared to Friday:

Obama 49% (-1)
Clinton 46% (+2)

Meanwhile, the two Democrats both tie John McCain in the general-election matches:

Obama (D) 45%, McCain (R) 45%
Clinton (D) 46%, McCain (R) 46%