Barack Obama has released this Web video, essentially a video version of yesterday's blog post responding to the Jeremiah Wright controversy:

"Because these particular statements by Rev. Wright are so contrary to my own life and beliefs, a number of people have legitimately raised questions about the nature of my relationship with REv. Wright and my membership in the church," Obama says, then talking about his long-time membership in the church's community and with Wright as a human being.

"In other words," Obama said, "he has never been my political advisor — he's been my pastor."

(Via Ben Smith)

The Iowa caucuses might have been over two months ago, but Barack Obama is still making gains off of them. In today's Iowa county Democratic conventions — which those caucus delegates were elected to participate in — Obama picked up the votes of roughly half of John Edwards' former supporters, netting him seven delegates.

Going into the June state Democratic convention, where the federal delegates will finally be selected, Obama is projected to have 23 delegates to Hillary Clinton's 14, with eight remaining delegates either still nominally for Edwards or uncommitted.

To put this in perspective, Hillary's total gains in the Ohio primary amounted to a net advantage of nine delegates.

Late Update: NBC News is now putting Obama's projected net delegate gain at five, not seven. The current numbers: Obama 23, Clinton 16, Edwards/Uncommitted 6. Still, it's hardly a bad day for Obama.

Late Late Update: The newest NBC projections give Obama 25 delegates, Clinton 14, and Edwards/Uncommitted 6. That's a gain of nine delegates for Obama since the January 3 precinct caucuses, and a loss of one for Clinton.

Top fundraisers for Hillary Clinton have begun to exert direct and personal pressure on DNC chair Howard Dean, urging him to show more leadership to bring about some sort of resolution to the Florida and Michigan vote standoffs.

In an interview with Election Central, venture capitalist Alan Patricof, a member of Hillary's finance committee and one of the Democratic Party's most influential fundraisers, said that he'd privately urged Dean to do more to get the Florida and Michigan delegations seated -- something that's crucial to the Hillary camp's hopes of closing the gap with Obama.

"I've expressed to Dean my feeling that it's critical that this matter be resolved on a timely basis," Patricof says. "The voters in Florida and Michgan cannot be disenfranchised."

"He's got to exercise some leadership, and the sooner, the better," Patricof continued. "This is a party issue. We cannot afford to alienate this large a voting population in two very important states."

That such an influential fundraiser is unhappy with the DNC could prove problematic, since the DNC of course relies on such figures to keep the money flowing in.

Indeed, other Hillary donors tell The New York Times that if Dean doesn't resolve the situation, the stream of money to the DNC will dry up.

Pushing to seat the Florida delegates, at least one top Clinton fund-raiser, Paul Cejas, a Miami businessman who has given the Democratic National Committee $63,500 since 2003, has demanded Democratic officials return his 2007 contribution of $28,500, which they have agreed to do.

“If you’re not going to count my vote, I’m not going to give you my money,” said Mr. Cejas, who was the United States ambassador to Belgium from 1998 to 2001.

Christopher Korge, a Florida real estate developer who is another top fund-raiser for Mrs. Clinton, held an event last year in his home that brought in about $140,000 for the national party, which was set aside in a special account for the general election battle in Florida. But he told committee officials this week that if Florida’s delegate conundrum was not settled satisfactorily he would be asking for the money back.

“If we do not resolve this issue,” Mr. Korge said, “I think it’s safe to say there will be a request for a return of $140,000.”

In the interview with Election Central, Patricof seemed to suggest that more top donors would be insisting that Dean resolve the situation: "I'm sure there are other like-minded people who want this to happen," he said. "It's critical."

In the response to the controversies surrounding recently-aired videos of his sermons, Barack Obama's former pastor Jeremiah Wright has resigned his from honorary membership on the campaign's African American Religious Leadership Committee. NBC News says it's unclear whether Wright left of his own initiative, or if he was asked to leave.

Earlier today, Obama put up a long blog post explicitly condemning "any statement that disparages our great country" that Wright has made, while simultaneously standing by the man himself and his church — a delicate balancing act, to say the least, and probably not one that Obama was happy to find himself having to perform.

In a long blog posting at The Huffington Post, Barack Obama has made his most detailed and extensive reply yet to the questions he's been hit by in recent days about his pastor, Jeremiah Wright.

In the post, Obama condemns Wright's comments in very strong terms -- ones far stronger than, for instance, his assertion today that he "disagrees" with the pastor's "God damn America" comment...

Let me say at the outset that I vehemently disagree and strongly condemn the statements that have been the subject of this controversy. I categorically denounce any statement that disparages our great country or serves to divide us from our allies. I also believe that words that degrade individuals have no place in our public dialogue, whether it's on the campaign stump or in the pulpit. In sum, I reject outright the statements by Rev. Wright that are at issue.

Note the explicit reference there to "any statement that disparages our great country" -- a clear, if unstated, reference, to the "God damn America" line.

Obama also attempts to answer the question of why he hasn't left the church by pointing to his ties to the church's larger community and to Wright's sunsetting career...

The statements that Rev. Wright made that are the cause of this controversy were not statements I personally heard him preach while I sat in the pews of Trinity or heard him utter in private conversation. When these statements first came to my attention, it was at the beginning of my presidential campaign. I made it clear at the time that I strongly condemned his comments. But because Rev. Wright was on the verge of retirement, and because of my strong links to the Trinity faith community, where I married my wife and where my daughters were baptized, I did not think it appropriate to leave the church.

The post doesn't repudiate Wright himself or say anything about whether Wright will be allowed to keep his largely honorary post on the campaign's African American Religious Leadership Committee.

Obama's full post here.

Late Update: Obama is doing interviews with several major networks tonight, presumably to amplify his push-back on the Wright controversy.

On a call with some of his major California donors yesterday, Barack Obama acknowledged that Pennsylvania will be a steep uphill battle, and said that his aim is to get within 10 points of Hillary there, something that he said would be a "victory" for him, according to a donor on the call.

"He said that Pennsylvania is tough for them and that the demographics really are not the best for them," the donor tells me, adding that Obama was speaking to the group of 40-odd contributors via conference call.

"He said his goal is to finish within 10 points, and that that would be a victory for them. He said he'll be making a big effort there, but that she should win it and that the goal is to finish within 10."

Asked for comment on the conversation, Obama spokesperson Bill Burton didn't deny that it had taken place, saying: "She has a big lead, she won Ohio by 10 points and she is the favorite -- but we will fight as hard as we can for votes and delegates."

Obama's remarks are significant, because defining a Pennsylvania victory (and defeat) in such specific terms could make it tougher for the campaign to frame the actual results when they happen should he lose by more than 10 points. If he comes in under 10, however, setting expectations in advance this way could help.

Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL) is floating a new compromise idea for seating delegates from Florida: That the result of the January rogue primary be accepted as is, but that the overall delegate allotment be cut in half, as the Republican National Committee originally did to their unauthorized primaries.

If such an idea were accepted — a big "if" — then Hillary Clinton's hypothetical delegate margin from Florida would be reduced from +38 to +19. In exchange, the candidates wouldn't have to go to the trouble of running in a whole new primary contest or being in the position of throwing out Florida entirely.

(Via The Page)

You really do need to watch this new video that the McCain campaign has just put out -- it's a neat preview of the sort of appeals we can expect in a general election.

The video is part of a fundraising appeal -- the campaign is raising money off of tomorrow being the 35th anniversary of his release from the Hanoi Hilton. That and his POW experience are the subject of the vid:

The campaign has also sent out a special e-mail promoting the video, and asking recipients to donate to McCain's campaign.

Today's Gallup tracking poll shows Barack Obama extending a small lead into a significant one. Here are the numbers, compared to yesterday:

Obama 50% (+2)
Clinton 44% (-2)

Meanwhile, the two Democrats both tie John McCain in the general election match-ups:

Obama (D) 45%, McCain (R) 45%
Clinton (D) 46%, McCain (R) 46%

Just in case you'd forgotten about John McCain, you should know that he's out there campaigning, and he's actually saying stuff like this...

Republican presidential candidate John McCain said on Friday he fears that al Qaeda or another extremist group might attempt spectacular attacks in Iraq to try to tilt the U.S. election against him.

McCain, at a town hall meeting in this Philadelphia suburb, was asked if he had concerns that anti-American militants in Iraq might ratchet up their activities in Iraq to try to increase casualties in September or October and tip the November election against him.

"Yes, I worry about it," McCain said.

You know, I keep hearing from Republican pundits and operatives that the specter of terrorism inevitably bolsters the electoral prospects of Republicans. But here McCain says that Al Qaeda would amp up their attacks in Iraq to hurt him.

Hard to keep track of this stuff sometimes.

It's also worth noting that McCain's basically saying here that he "worries" that Al Qaeda will attack in order to help a Democrat become the next president.

In an interview with a Pittsburgh newspaper, Obama personally addresses the revelations that Obama's pastor said "God damn America":

Q: I don't know if you've seen it, but it's all over the wire today (from an ABC News story), a statement that your pastor (the Rev. Jeremiah Wright of Trinity United Church of Christ on Chicago's South Side) made in a sermon in 2003 that instead of singing "God Bless America," black people should sing a song essentially saying "God Damn America."

A: I haven't seen the line. This is a pastor who is on the brink of retirement who in the past has made some controversial statements. I profoundly disagree with some of these statements.

Q: What about this particular statement?

A: Obviously, I disagree with that. Here is what happens when you just cherry-pick statements from a guy who had a 40-year career as a pastor. There are times when people say things that are just wrong. But I think it's important to judge me on what I've said in the past and what I believe.

The fuller context of Wright's quote is here. In a 2003 sermon, Wright said:

"The government gives them the drugs, builds bigger prisons, passes a three-strike law and then wants us to sing 'God Bless America.' No, no, no, God damn America, that's in the Bible for killing innocent people. God damn America for treating our citizens as less than human. God damn America for as long as she acts like she is God and she is supreme."

The Wright story has been all over the cable nets since yesterday. As Ben Smith notes, Obama is refusing "to throw him overboard, as both campaigns have been doing at a furious pace with other supporters."

The Obama campaign didn't immediately respond when asked whether Wright would be keeping his largely honorary post on the campaign's African American Religious Leadership Committee.

The Obama campaign's Michigan co-chair says that all the momentum right now in private negotiations between Michigan Dems is behind the option of having a redo primary in the state, suggesting that an agreement on a redo is likely.

"There's a lot of momentum behind the redo option," the Obama official, State Senator Tupac Hunter, told me by phone a few minutes ago, adding that he'd been in discussions with Michigan Democratic Party officials as late as last night. The redo option is "taking up the lion's share of the discussions," Hunter says.

Hunter also said that the mail-in vote option, which the Obama camp had expressed concerns about, is "pretty much dead."

Separately, the Associated Press, citing anonymous officials, reports that Michigan Democrats are close to an agreement on the redo option. Hunter's comments represent on-the-record confirmation of this.

The word in political circles today is that an announcement of a deal on a redo could come today, but I haven't yet been able to confirm that this is the case.

Read more »

A review of the super-delegate math by Bloomberg News shows just how quickly Barack Obama has caught up to Hillary Clinton. Among members of Congress and governors, Hillary only leads by a 103-96 margin, meaning that her lead of just under 40 supers comes almost entirely from Democratic National Committee members.

Meanwhile, Obama has done a better job than Hillary at picking up those supporters in the last few months. Since Iowa, he has gained 53 endorsements from the elected super-delegates, compared to only 12 for Hillary. And even after Hillary's comeback on March 4, Obama has gained nine total super-delegates to Hillary's one.

Sen. John Ensign (R-NV), the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, admitted in an interview with The Hill that it's unlikely for the GOP to get regain a Senate majority. Ensign cited problems with fundraising and candidate recruitment, especially the failure get top candidates in key Democratic seats.

"There is no question that getting back in the majority now, because of some of the recruiting – some of these just terrific candidates that we wanted ended up not running – would be a very long stretch," said Ensign. "That’s the best way I can say it."

The Democrats may end up with a tough open House seat to defend, with Congressman Bud Cramer (D-AL) announcing his retirement.

The district voted 60%-39% for President Bush in 2004, and though Cramer had been able to easily hold the seat as a relatively conservative Dem since his first election in 1990, an open-seat race will probably be a top target for the Republicans.

One of the Hillary campaign's central claims in recent days has been that her advantage over Obama in Pennsylvania suggests she's a stronger general election candidate than Barack Obama.

Today Hillary pollster Mark Penn opined that Hillary's presumed victory in Pennsylvania will show that Obama can't win a general election. And the campaign has repeatedly expressed the view that "the road to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue runs right through Pennsylvania."

But we subscribe to the novel idea that general election match-up numbers, not primary ones, are a better indicator for what will happen in the general election.

So here are all the polls that we could find for this whole year -- that is, since the primaries and caucuses actually started -- measuring how both Obama and Hillary fare against John McCain in Pennsylvania:

Rasmussen (March 13)
McCain (R) 46%, Clinton (D) 44%
McCain (R) 44%, Obama (D) 43%

Strategic Vision (R) (March 12)
McCain (R) 48%, Clinton (D) 42%
McCain (R) 47%, Obama (D) 44%

SurveyUSA (March 6)
Clinton (D) 47%, McCain (R) 46%
McCain (R) 47%, Obama (D) 42%

Quinnipiac (February 27)
Clinton (D) 44%, McCain (R) 42%
Obama (D) 42%, McCain (R) 40%

Franklin & Marshall (February 21)
McCain (R) 44%, Clinton (D) 42%
McCain (R) 44%, Obama (D) 43%

Rasmussen (February 17)
McCain (R) 44%, Clinton (D) 42%
Obama (D) 49%, McCain (R) 39%

Quinnipiac (February 14)
Clinton (D) 46%, McCain (R) 40%
Obama (D) 42%, McCain (R) 41%

Rasmussen (January 8)
McCain (R) 48%, Clinton (D) 42%
McCain (R) 46%, Obama (D) 38%

As you can see, Hillary does fare slightly better against McCain in several more polls, but the differences overall seem statistically minor at best, and certainly don't justify Penn's claims. More to the point, Hillary and Obama both beat McCain in the same number of polls -- three each.

Separately, the Pollster.com averages put McCain ahead of Hillary by 45.2%-44.2%, and ahead of Obama 44.2%-41.9% — a McCain lead of 1.0% versus 2.3%. This, too, is a statistically insignificant difference.

Bottom line: The general election match-ups suggest that it's a huge stretch to make a Hillary-is-more-electable argument for Pennsylvania based simply on Democratic primary numbers.

From the no-rest-for-the-weary-of-debates department comes this release just out from the Clinton camp...

The Clinton campaign today announced that Hillary has accepted an invitation to participate in a primetime debate hosted by ABC. The debate will be held in Philadelphia, PA in advance of the April 22nd Pennsylvania primary. The debate will be broadcast statewide and nationally.

No word on what the Obama camp will do yet.

Late Update: The Obama campaign accepts the ABC debate and one-ups the Hillary campaign with this release...

Today, Barack Obama accepted invitations to nationally televised debates with Senator Hillary Clinton in Philadelphia on April 16th and in North Carolina on April 19th.

The Pennsylvania debate will be hosted by ABC News and held in the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia on Wednesday, April 16. The North Carolina debate, hosted by CBS News at a location to be determined, will be hosted by CBS and moderated by Katie Couric and Bob Schieffer.

I'll see your Pennsylvania and raise you a North Carolina.

Okay, so the Philly debate will happen on April 16th. No word on what Camp Hillary will do on North Carolina.

And it looks like Katie Couric may get to moderate her very own debate, after all!

From the Associated Press comes this news about a press conference today in Florida where the head of the Florida Dems expressed extreme pessimism about a solution to the revote standoff...

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. - The head of Florida's Democratic Party said Thursday the proposed vote-by-mail presidential primary is unlikely to go forward because of strong opposition and concerns about conducting the vote.

Karen Thurman said she is asking Democratic leaders, the national party and presidential candidates Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton to consider the option as the best way to resolve the delegate dispute. Florida had all 210 of its delegates to the national convention stripped after it violated national party rules by moving up its primary to January.

When asked if the alternative will be implemented, knowing what she knows about potential problems executing the plan and widespread concerns, Thurman said, "I have a feeling that this is probably closer to not, than yes."...

"If this becomes something that we can't do, then we can't do it," Thurman said.

There are multiple problems. First, there are procedural difficulties in getting such a thing implemented. What's more, the Obama camp has concerns about a mail-in scheme, and today on CNN Howard Dean said the DNC wouldn't back any plan that isn't favored by both campaigns: "We’d like to do it in a way that’s fair, that both sides believe is fair. Fair to the voters but also fair to the campaigns."

So what's the upshot? I checked in with DNC spokesperson Stacie Paxton, who said:

There are two options. They can resubmit a plan and run a party process to select delegates or they can appeal to the Convention Credentials Committee which resolves questions about the seating of delegates.

What this fundamentally means is that there's little that the DNC can do to resolve this -- if Florida officials don't agree on a plan, and one that's acceptable to both campaigns, to boot, it's all but certain that there will be no revote at all.

And what happens then? Well, Florida officials can appeal to the DNC's credentials committee, which will consider various plans to get the delegation sat in some form or other. At that point, it's anyone's guess what will happen. In short, mayhem is on the horizon.

Today's Gallup tracking poll shows that the Democratic race continues to be very tight in the national preference. Here are the numbers, compared to yesterday:

Obama 48% (+1)
Clinton 46% (+1)

Meanwhile, the two of them both narrowly edge out John McCain in general-election match-ups:

Obama (D) 46%, McCain (R) 44%
Clinton (D) 47%, McCain (R) 45%

On the Clinton campaign conference call today, chief strategist Mark Penn discussed Pennsylvania, and made a rather strong statement about the significance of the state. He said the following about Hillary's expected win there...

"We believe this will again show that Hillary is ready to win and that Senator Obama really can't win the general election."

This stops about a milllionth of an inch short of an out-and-out declaration that Obama can't win a general. He seems to be saying that Obama's expected loss in Pennsylvania, and the scale of it, will show that he can't win a general election.

This is in keeping with earlier remarks by Hillary and her surrogates to the effect that he has not passed the "commander in chief test" sufficiently to win a general. Ben Smith is right to observer that this is a pretty strong thing to say. And later on the call, the Hillary people backtracked from the remark.

What this really reflects, I think, is the difficult (or perhaps impossible) balancing act the Hillary camp is trying to strike between portraying Obama as unfit for the general election to sow doubts among super-delegates while maintaining a posture of loyalty to the larger Democratic cause.

A new poll from the University of Central Arkansas shows that Hillary Clinton would have a far better shot than Barack Obama at carrying this red state:

Clinton (D) 51%, McCain (R) 36%
McCain (R) 43%, Obama (D) 27%

Arkansas has six electoral votes — not many, but potentially enough to make the difference in a very close race. President Bush carried the state twice, but it's also where Bill Clinton was governor and Hillary the first lady for 12 years.

A key Clinton surrogate, Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell, has just given voice to a Clinton campaign argument that's been bubbling below the surface but is rarely voiced quite this explicitly: The idea that the popular vote is at least as democratic a metric for judging the winner as the pledged delegate count is.

On a conference call with reporters moments ago, Rendell said: "Let's assume that Senator Clinton goes ahead in the popular vote count." He then asked, "which is more democratic" -- choosing the winner of the popular vote or the winner of the pledged delegate count.

"The way we select delegates is not all that democratic," Rendell continued, in a reference to caucus voting. "The rules were going in that super-delegates were there to exercise their judgment...as a super-delegate I want to make sure we win in the fall, and I'm gonna take the candidate who can do that."

As I reported here yesterday, at a private powwow with major donors, Hillary advisers conveyed the message that her success depends on their ability to persuade the super-dels to consider three "data points" -- the pledged delegate count, the popular vote, and the specific states won by each candidate.

As Rendell shows, the argument that the popular vote is at least as "democratic" a metric as the pledged del count is going to be a key one, and we'll hear more of it going forward.

Late Update: Rendell was talking about what would happen if she had the popular vote lead when it's all over, but even so, it seems worth noting that Obama is ahead in the popular vote right now, according to Real Clear Politics, even when you factor in Florida and Michigan.

The new Rasmussen poll of Pennsylvania gives Hillary Clinton a strong lead in the primary, not significantly changed from their poll a week ago:

Clinton 51% (-1)
Obama 38% (+1)

A key statistic from the internals: Among Clinton voters, 39% agree with Geraldine Ferraro's comments about Barack Obama, while 47% disagree. Among Obama's voters, 93% of them disagree.

As for the general election match-ups, Rasmussen has John McCain narrowly ahead against either of the two Democrats:

McCain (R) 46%, Clinton (D) 44%
McCain (R) 44%, Obama (D) 43%

During an appearance last night at a conference of black community newspaper publishers, Hillary Clinton publicly apologized for the furor surrounding her campaign and Geraldine Ferraro's comments about Barack Obama.

"I certainly do repudiate it and I regret deeply that it was said," Clinton said. "Obviously she doesn't speak for the campaign, she doesn't speak for any of my positions, and she has resigned from being a member of my very large finance committee."

A proposal now being considered for the Michigan primary is that the mulligan primary would be an otherwise normal, state-run contest, but with the state Democratic Party reimbursing the state for roughly $10 million needed to run it.

This idea had previously been viewed as unfeasible, but the Detroit Free Press says it was given new life when Govs. Jon Corzine (D-NJ) and Ed Rendell (D-PA), both Hillary Clinton supporters, offered to help raise the money for new contests in Florida and Michigan.

The new NBC/Wall St. Journal poll released last night shows Hillary Clinton with a national lead of 47%-43% over Barack Obama — but somewhat paradoxically, the same Democratic respondents view Obama as the more electable candidate by a 48%-38% margin. Perceived electability often tracks with preference, as people see their own candidate as the stronger one.

As for match-ups against John McCain, they actually seem to be about equally electable at this juncture. Obama beats McCain 47%-44%, while Hillary is ahead of McCain 47%-45%.

Following her resignation from the Clinton campaign finance committee, Geraldine Ferraro was unapologetic regarding her remarks about Barack Obama's political success — and said it's the Obama campaign who have endeavored to make the campaign about race.

"They have played the race card time after time after time," Ferraro told the New York Times. "The campaign has a goal, which is to attack Hillary. They have to find a way and they can't do it on experience, on issues, so they look for places. They came up with this, and, well, here we go."

What's Keith Olbermann going to say now?

The Florida Democratic Party is now circulating a draft proposal to hold a new mail-in primary ending on June 3, combined with 50 regional offices to help disadvantaged communities participate.

The plan would cost between $10 million and $12 million, and have to be financed through the state party's own fundraising efforts. The party would begin raising the money on Monday, if party leaders have given their approval by Friday.

"Fingers have been pointed in every direction, but how we arrived at this breaking point is irrelevant," state party chair Karen Thurman said in a letter obtained by the AP. "The stark reality is that all Democrats lose if this is not resolved immediately."

A new poll from Republican firm Strategic Vision gives Hillary Clinton an overwhelming lead of 56%-38% for the Pennsylvania primary, consistent with other polls showing her way ahead. A lot could change in the next six weeks, of course, but she definitely starts out with the upper hand.

Interestingly, the poll also indicates that Barack Obama could potentially be the more electable candidate here, though it's not a statistically significant difference. She loses to John McCain 48%-42%, while he loses by a closer 47%-44%.

Ben Smith has followed up on our earlier post about the Michigan situation, and got in touch with Tupac Hunter, the state co-chair for Obama's campaign.

Hunter reiterated his stance that the Obama campaign is opposed to a mail-in vote, and seemed to suggest again that the Obama camp opposes any revote at all — a position that turns out to be in contrast with the Obama campaign's official position that they'll abide by whatever agreement is reached between the DNC and the state party.

Obama spokesperson Bill Burton told Smith that Hunter is not accurately representing the campaign's position: "Anything other than the fact that we think that the DNC and states ought to work this out, but we'll play by the rules, is not an expression of the position of the campaign."

In a private meeting in D.C. with her top fundraisers from all over the country today, Hillary gave a rousing pep-talk in which she flatly predicted, "we're gonna win this," according to a fundraiser who was present.

In a series of closed-door meetings in Washington today, fundraisers were given extensive presentations from top Hillary advisers and surrogates about strategy and about what needs to be done to win over super-delegates should she fail to close the pledged delegate gap, the fundraiser says.

The fundraiser adds that there were expressions of frustration with DNC chair Howard Dean for not doing enough to resolve the Florida and Michigan situations.

I reported below that the Hillary campaign summoned its top fundraisers for an all-day affair in D.C. today. The fundraiser who was present gave me a rough run-down on some of what transpired.

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Geraldine Ferraro has announced in a letter to Hillary Clinton that she is resigning from Hillary's campaign finance committee:

Dear Hillary –

I am stepping down from your finance committee so I can speak for myself and you can continue to speak for yourself about what is at stake in this campaign.

The Obama campaign is attacking me to hurt you.

I won't let that happen.

Thank you for everything you have done and continue to do to make this a better world for my children and grandchildren.

You have my deep admiration and respect.

Gerry

I'm surprised this didn't happen sooner, actually: Hillary spokesperson Howard Wolfson finally reached into his deck and whipped out the Geffen card.

In a conference call with reporters today, Wolfson offered a new response to the Ferraro race flap, pointing out that Obama didn't ax one of his top fundraisers, David Geffen, when he said all kinds of nasty things to Maureen Dowd about Hillary, triggering one of the first controversies of the campaign.

At the time, Obama said he disagreed with Geffen, but added: "It's not clear to me why I would be apologizing for someone else's remarks."

Wolfson reminded reporters of this today and used it to defend Hillary's handling of the Ferraro matter.

Of course, Ferraro's comments were racially-charged, whereas Geffen was just being a jerk. Obama today took something of a high road, distancing himself from the notion that Ferraro's eruption was part of a Clinton campaign pattern.

Separately, here's a sobering thought: Guess when Dowd's Geffen column was? Over a year ago. That's how long this bilge has been flying back and forth.

Late Update: It looks like Wolfson must be getting his ideas from Steve Benen.

Today was day three of Obama's Commander-In-Chief tour.

For the third day in a row, Obama stood at an event with retired military brass and touted his commander-in-chief credentials — yet another sign that his campaign takes very seriously the need to push back on Hillary's claim that he isn't ready for the job, and that she is.

In his speech at the Chicago History Museum, Obama laid the blame for the country's foreign policy problems squarely with politicians like Hillary: "After years of being told that Democrats have to talk, act and vote like John McCain to pass some Commander-in-Chief test, how many times do we have to learn that tough talk is not a substitute for sound judgment?"

The full speech is available after the jump.

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Not sure what to make of this. Obama campaign manager David Plouffe has repeatedly said in conference calls that the Obama camp's position on revotes in Michigan and Florida is that it will abide with whatever compromise the Democratic National Committee works out with the state parties.

But Obama's campaign co-chair in Michigan, Tupac Hunter, is now saying that the Obama campaign won't accept any revote, according to a new report. Check out this nugget in the Detroit News...

State Sen. Tupac Hunter, D-Detroit, said a mail-in caucus "is clearly the wrong path.

"We don't like it one bit," Hunter said. "It disenfranchises people who need to participate and there are many questions with regard to security."

Hunter said the Obama campaign will accept nothing but a 50-50 split of Michigan delegates between Clinton and Obama, who removed his name from the January ballot here in protest of the early date.

"Nothing but a 50-50 split of Michigan delegates" seems to mean no revote of any kind, obviously. What Plouffe says clearly trumps what the Detroit official says, and this isn't a direct quote. Nonetheless, the Detroit News seems pretty definitive here. If nothing else, this is another sign of just how complicated and in flux the situation is and how many players there are at the local and national level to get on the same page.

I'm told that Hunter and Obama's other Michigan co-chair are giving a presser today in Michigan to address this, so we'll find out from them directly what they have to say.

Late Update: This is getting more curious. Ben Smith quotes Obama today at a presser saying the following about this:

"My bottom line is I do want to make sure that both the Florida and the Michigan delegations have an opportunity to participate in the convention," Obama said.

As Ben notes: "What's striking there is that he didn't say he wanted to votes to be counted or the voters to express their wills. And focusing on the rights of delegates matches the stance" that his Michigan chair took here.

Late Late Update: An Obama spokesperson tells Ben that he was reading too much into Obama's words.

Today's Gallup tracking poll shows a close national race between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, in a campaign that has been characterized recently by repeated swings back and forth. Here are the numbers, compared to yesterday:

Obama 47% (-1)
Clinton 45% (+0)

Meanwhile, Gallup has the two of them doing equally well against John McCain:

Obama (D) 46%, McCain (R) 44%
Clinton (D) 47%, McCain (R) 45%

One thing to keep in mind about the Obama camp's electability arguments is that they're being amplified right now for a reason: It's the argument over who's more electable that could very well play a key role in what the super-delegates do when the voting is all over.

The super-dels are the real target of the Obama camp's pitch -- and Camp Hillary's, too. The Obama camp knows that Hillary advisers are currently, and will continue, to press the case privately to super-delegates that his failure to win key big states should make them nervous about his prospects this fall -- and that this should influence them even if Obama wins the pledged del count.

The Obama camp is now ratcheting up its public and private efforts to neutralize this argument, in hopes of persuading the super-dels to follow the winner of the pledged-del count.

For instance, the Obama campaign has just sent out another memo -- the second of the day! -- elaborating the case for his electability and attempting to debunk Hillary's "big states" spin. This one's signed by pols in non-"key" states Obama has won: Iowa's Chet Culver, Wisconsin's Jim Doyle, Washington's Christine Gregoire, Virginia's Tim Kaine, and Missouri's Claire McCaskill.

Key excerpt:

The Clinton campaign’s argument ignores relevant facts about how significant a role these [smaller] states played in determining the outcome of the presidential race in 2004. In fact, Obama has won 7 of 9 of the biggest states that were close in the 2004 presidential election and have already selected delegates to the 2008 Democratic convention.

More than half of the votes that Senator Clinton has won so far have come from just five states. It’s also worth noting that polls in four of these five states show that Obama would be a stronger general election candidate against McCain than Clinton.

The full memo is here.

We hear that Hillary's top fundraisers will be sitting down to a private meeting with her today for a pep talk and a wide-ranging look at the state of the race.

According to a copy of the invitation, which was sent our way, the fundraisers were set to start their day getting a policy briefing from top Hillary supporters like Senators Bill Nelson, Robert Menendez and Debbie Stabenow.

Following that is a private luncheon with the candidate herself, at an upscale restaurant in D.C.'s Union Station.

What with Obama's two victories in Mississippi and and Wyoming, his potentially-insurmountable pledged delegate lead, and the unresolved situations in Florida and Michigan, antsy donors will no doubt be asking a lot of tough questions. We'll bring you more on the meeting when we get it.

The Obama camp is seizing on a comment made by Clinton adviser Harold Ickes to today's New York Times to broaden its case that Obama's far more electable in a general than Hillary is.

Ickes, speaking of states Obama won or is likely to win, said:

"Most of those states haven’t voted Democratic in a presidential since the Johnson landslide over Goldwater in 1964, and we don’t see that changing. They’re great states, but Idaho, Nebraska and the Carolinas are not going to be in the Democratic column in November. He’s winning the Democratic process, but that is virtually irrelevant to the general election."

On a conference call with reporters just now, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe used the Ickes quote to beat the electability drum, arguing that Camp Hillary's concession of this general election turf is a sign of her weakness against McCain.

"Amazingly, they said that the Democratic nominee could not carry the Carolinas," Plouffe said. "We think that speaks to their weakness in the general election. We think we can win the state of North Carolina. Clinton has already waved the white flag [there]. North Carolina will be a central battleground if Obama is our nominee."

Plouffe, in an argument we'll be hearing more and more of in the days ahead, also moved to undermine the idea that the popular vote outcome, as opposed to the pledged del count, should be a metric we use to judge the winner when the voting ends.

"We think they're trying to create another diversion out there," Plouffe said of the Clintons, adding that Obama would end up gaining 100,000 votes out of last night's contests, leaving him with a comfortable popular vote lead overall.

And there you have the contours of the argument over electability and over the relevance of the popular vote that you'll be hearing from Camp Obama for the next six weeks or so.

Late Update: Hillary spokesperson Phil Singer responds:

The path to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue goes through Pennsylvania so if Barack Obama can’t win there, how will he win the general election?

Barack Obama's likely delegate take from Mississippi appears to be a +5 edge — while he won the popular vote by 24 points, Hillary Clinton's narrow win in the First Congressional District will apparently keep the delegate margin at 19-14.

But here's something to put it in perspective: Between the Mississippi and Wyoming results alone, Obama will have just about undone Hillary's small delegate gains from March 4.

Here are the latest delegate estimates from various news organization, including super-delegates unless otherwise noted:

CNN: Obama 1,608, Clinton 1,478
CNN: Obama 1,402, Clinton 1,240 (Not counting supers)

NBC: Obama 1,610, Clinton 1,496
NBC: Obama 1,394, Clinton 1,242 (Not counting supers)

ABC: Obama 1,600, Clinton 1,484

CBS: Obama 1,591, Clinton 1,471

WaPo: Obama 1,596, Clinton 1,484
WaPo: Obama 1,385, Clinton 1,237 (Not counting supers)

NYT: Obama 1,510.5, Clinton 1,403
NYT: Obama 1,348, Clinton 1,210.5 (Not counting supers)

AP: Obama 1,596, Clinton 1,484
AP: Obama 1,385, Clinton 1,237 (Not counting supers)

Late Update: Hillary actually won the First District, not the Fourth as originally listed.

He's going to step down this morning, says The New York Times.

Meanwhile, The New York Post, a reliable Spitzer nemesis, reports:

Gov. Eliot Spitzer has decided to resign and will begin notifying top state officials of his decision just after 9 a.m., The Post has learned.

Word began circulating of his decision in state political circles just minutes ago, which came after what one source called "an agonizing night," as the governor's wife, Silda Wall Spitzer, and the governor's lawyers went over a possible plea deal offered by federal prosecutors, sources told The Post.

A spectacular fall for a complex but enormously talented and voraciously ambitious figure -- and an indefinite postponement of the possibility of seeing the nation elect its first Jewish president.

Late Update: The Associated Press is reporting that Spitzer will resign effective Monday.

Clinton campaign manager Maggie Williams has issued an open letter to Obama manager David Plouffe, calling for negotiations on a solution for the Florida and Michigan primaries:

"In Florida and Michigan, nearly 2.5 million Americans made their voices heard and participated in primary elections. We think the results of those primaries were fair and should be honored," the letter says — a condition that the Obama campaign would undoubtedly consider unacceptable.

The letter then offers a small olive branch: "We think there are two options: Either honor the results or hold new primary elections ... We hope that your campaign will join us in our efforts to ensure that these votes are counted."

Meanwhile, Florida's Democratic delegation to the House have announced that they oppose "any redo of any kind."

A SurveyUSA poll of North Carolina released last night gives Barack Obama a 49%-41% lead for this May 6 primary.

From the internals: Obama leads 78%-17% among black voters, while Hillary Clinton leads 52%-35% among whites — a less racially-polarized result than we saw in Mississippi.

Indianapolis City Councilman André Carson (D) has won the special election tonight to succeed the late Congresswoman Julia Carson (D), his grandmother. With 99% reporting, Carson has defeated Republican state Rep. Jon Elrod by 54%-43%.

Interesting fact: The younger Carson is a convert to Islam, making him only the second Muslim member of Congress ever, following freshman Rep. Keith Ellison (D-MN).

I emailed Hillary spokesperson Howard Wolfson to ask if the campaign has a reaction to Geraldine Ferraro's latest, in which she said: "Racism works in two different directions. I really think they're attacking me because I'm white."

Wolfson's response:

Ms. Ferraro is speaking for herself. We have made clear that we reject her remarks.

The closest that the Hillary camp has come to rejecting Ferraro's remarks was when she said today that she does "not agree" with what Ferraro said and added that it's "regrettable" that supporters on "both sides" say such stuff.

Separately, Hillary campaign manager Maggie Williams went in the other direction, suggesting in a statement that the Obama camp was playing the race card by criticizing Ferraro's remarks, which is hardly a rejection, obviously.

Late Update: Ferraro defends herself on Fox tonight, and doesn't do Hillary any favors in the process...

MSNBC and Fox call Mississippi for Obama. No totals yet.

So how does this effect Obama's delegate lead? Pretty much no matter what happens, he'll equal -- based on tonight's results alone -- Hillary's gains on March 4th.

MSNBC's Chuck Todd is crunching the math right now on the air. If Obama gets 63% or more he'll net nine delegates. If he gets less than that, he's still likely to net seven -- which, again, would equal Hillary's March 4th gains.

More in a bit.

Late Update: Political obsessives were asking today what sort of results Obama would get among whites in this deep south state. The exits show that he got barely a quarter. She only won a meager one out of 10 blacks.

But, in an interesting finding, Obama won handily among low and middle income voters, indeed among almost all income groups, and only lost to Hillary among voters with a family income over $75,000.

What's more, Mississippi voters, at least, see Hillary as the negative candidate in the race by a large margin. Fifty-nine percent said she attacked him unfairly, while only 38% said he attacked her unfairly (though that could end up roughly tracking with the spread of the electorate in general).

Late Update: The latest results: With 29% in, Obama leads, 56%-42%. But the spread is likely to grow, so he's got a shot at getting his total over 60%. Obama's expected to net at least seven delegates tonight.

Late Update: An interesting moment from Obama on CNN -- he makes a subtle allusion to the heavy-artillery that Hillary has been lobbing at him of late:

I have been careful to say, that I think that Senator Clinton is a capable person and that should she win the nomination, obviously, I would support her. You know, I'm not sure that we have been getting that same approach from the Clinton campaign.

This line from Obama, obviously, is a wry reference to Hillary's repeated claim that he hasn't passed the "commander in chief test" and that he won't be able to face John McCain with the "lifetime of experience" that she has under her belt. But in fairness, it should be noted that the Hillary camp has repeatedly said that she will "enthusiastically" support Obama should he become the Dem nominee.

Some interesting numbers from the preliminary exit polls:

According to numbers shown on Fox News, Obama holds a solid 10 point lead over Hillary on who voters think is qualified to be "commander-in-chief," 53%-43%.

We've been hearing that phrase a lot lately from Hillary, obviously, but among Mississippi voters at least her pitch doesn't seem to be working. On the other hand, that's a smaller spread than the margin of victory Obama will almost certainly emerge with tonight.

Separately, the Associated Press has an interesting finding from the exits: Obama voters appear to like Hillary better than Hillary voters like Obama. And they want him to pick Hillary as a running mate.

While six in 10 Obama voters said he should pick Hillary for veep, only four in 10 Hillary voters said she should pick him, suggesting that her harsh criticism of him may be sinking in with her supporters.

We'll be blogging the results right here at Election Central.

In another interview with the paper that got this whole thing started, Geraldine Ferraro echoes the emerging Hillary line that it's the Obama camp that's played the race card in this dust-up:

"Any time anybody does anything that in any way pulls this campaign down and says let's address reality and the problems we're facing in this world, you're accused of being racist, so you have to shut up," Ferraro said. "Racism works in two different directions. I really think they're attacking me because I'm white. How's that?"

John McCain has now made his position clearer on John Hagee: He stands by Hagee's support, even if his words have created the "impression" of being anti-Catholic.

Think Progress reports that McCain was asked today about some of Hagee's inflammatory comments about the Catholic Church, during an appearance on Bill Bennett's radio show.

"Well, obviously I repudiate any comments that are anti-Semitic or anti-Catholic, racist, any other," McCain said. "And I condemn them and I condemn those words that Pastor Hagee apparently -- that Pastor Hagee wrote. I will say that he said that his words were taken out of context, he defends his position. I hope that maybe you'd give him a chance to respond."

McCain also added a defense of Hagee: "I will say, I'd like to say on his behalf, he's been a very strong supporter of the state of Israel and when we were doing the No Surrender tour, he came and spoke on behalf of not surrendering in Iraq."

The battle over Ferraro is rapidly heating up right now, and the latest twist in the story is a surprising one: Clinton campaign manager Maggie Williams is suggesting that it's the Obama camp that played the race card in the dust-up over the Ferraro comments.

Williams has a new statement out that points to this video of Obama at a recent debate, in which he seems to say that he doesn't agree with his supporters' efforts to highlight a pattern of racially-charged remarks coming from the Clinton camp.

"Senator Obama's campaign staff seems to have forgotten his pledge," Williams continues. "We have not. And, we reject these false, personal and politically calculated attacks on the eve of a primary."

While the statement does reiterate Hillary's disagreement today with Ferraro's suggestion that he's where he is politically because of his race, there's no repudiation or rejection of the comments. Instead, there's this strong insinuation from Williams that the Obama camp's criticism of Ferraro's comment amounts to playing the race card in some way.

Unapologetic, defiant, refusing to budge, flipping the accusations back in the face of the Obama camp. Given Ferraro's original comments, this is a curious response indeed -- one that stands in stark (and probably deliberate) contrast to Samantha Power's prompt resignation in the wake of her "monster" comment.

Late Update: The full statement from Williams after the jump.

Late Late Update: Ferraro amplifies her case by arguing that the Obama camp just might be attacking her because she's white.

Read more »

Here's the latest statement on l'affaire Ferraro from Obama campaign spokesperson Bill Burton:

“With Senator Clinton’s refusal to denounce or reject Ms. Ferraro, she has once again proven that her campaign gets to live by its own rules and its own double standard, and will only decry offensive comments when it’s politically advantageous to Senator Clinton. Her refusal to take responsibility for her own supporter’s remarks is exactly the kind of tactic that feeds the American people’s cynicism about politics today and it’s why Barack Obama’s message of change has resonated so strongly in every corner of the country."

Earlier today, Hillary said that she doesn't agree with Ferraro's comments, in which she seemed to suggest that Obama's race is responsible for his success in the campaign. And Hillary added that "both of us have had supporters and staff members who've gone over the line." But she didn't denounce or reject Ferraro.

Many of you readers have written in to flag this Op ed piece in The New York Times by Harvard Professor Orlando Patterson about Hillary's 3 A.M. ad.

In the piece, Patterson makes an intriguing insinuation, saying that the imagery of the ad -- the children sleeping amid an atmosphere of vague external unease -- is reminiscent of the imagery in the notoriously racist movie "Birth of a Nation," which helped revive the KKK.

Patterson adds that if the Hillary campaign had wanted to do away with the alleged racial subtext, they could merely have stuck a black child into the spot...

The ad could easily have removed its racist sub-message by including images of a black child, mother or father — or by stating that the danger was external terrorism. Instead, the child on whom the camera first focuses is blond. Two other sleeping children, presumably in another bed, are not blond, but they are dimly lighted, leaving them ambiguous. Still it is obvious that they are not black — both, in fact, seem vaguely Latino.

Now, in a somewhat unusual way, the Hillary campaign has officially responded to the Op ed. The Hillary campaign argues that, in fact, the ad does have an image of a black child in it, and points to this shot to back up its claim...

Discuss.

The drama in New York over whether Spitzer is going to resign is getting more curious by the moment: In the latest twist, Spitzer's would-be successor, Lieutenant Governor David Paterson, says he has no idea what Spitzer is going to do....

Mr. Paterson also said he had not heard from the governor on Tuesday.

“The governor called me yesterday, he said he didn’t resign for a number of reasons, and he didn’t go into the reasons, and that’s the last I’ve heard from him,” he said.

Asked whether preparations for a transition were underway, the lieutenant governor said: “No one has talked to me about his resignation and no one has talked to me about a transition.”

The New York political world is in total limbo right now.

Spitzer already is facing the threat of impeachment from a Republican state leader and multiple calls for his resignation from New York papers.There are reports that he's been using this escort service for at least six months.

The chance that he can survive this is remote indeed, obviously. So the talk floating around today that Spitzer is holding out to somehow make his resignation part of a plea deal is the only explanation that makes sense right now.

The new SurveyUSA poll of Pennsylvania gives Hillary Clinton a very healthy lead of 55%-36% for the April 22 primary.

From the internals: Hillary leads in practically all demographics and regions, including even the younger voters, with Obama winning only the black vote. In her weakest region, the Southeastern portion of the state that includes Philadelphia and its surrounding suburbs, she's ahead 48%-46%.

Then again, the election is six weeks away, and things will probably get very interesting between now and then. But Barack Obama definitely has a lot of ground to make up if he wants to pull off an upset.

A few days after the Hillary campaign successfully claimed Samantha Power's scalp, the Obama campaign is out to force the Hillary camp to dump one of its own: Geraldine Ferraro.

On a conference call with reporters just now, top Obama adviser David Axelrod called on the Hillary camp to remove Ferraro from her position as major fundraiser for the campaign. Ferraro got in trouble when the news broke yesterday that she had suggested that Obama's race was responsible for his campaign's success...

"If Obama was a white man, he would not be in this position," she continued. "And if he was a woman (of any color) he would not be in this position. He happens to be very lucky to be who he is. And the country is caught up in the concept."

Axelrod, on the call, said of Ferraro: "She ought to be removed...there's no other way to send a serious sign that you want to change the tone of the campaign." He added that the remark was part of an "insidious pattern."

It's unclear exactly what Ferraro's role is. She's merely identified on the campaign's Web site as a "Hillraiser," which is to say a major fundraiser with an unofficial role. But she described herself as a member of the campaign's finance committee.

One interesting thing from the call: Obama's female surrogate on the call, Rep. Jan Schakowsky, was generally critical of such negative attacks, saying that "all remarks that diminish Senator Obama’s candidacy because of his race are completely out of line," but she stopped well short of demanding that Ferraro be removed.

We'll bring you the Hillary camp's response as soon as we get it.

Late Update: MSNBC reports that Hillary was asked about Ferraro's comments. "I do not agree with that. It is regrettable that any of our supporters on both sides, because we've both had that experience, say things that kind of veer off into the personal," Hillary said.

"We ought to keep this on the issues. There are differences between us. There are differences between our approaches on health care, on energy, on our experience, on our results that we've produced for people. That's what this campaign should be about."

It's unclear whether she was asked about Axelrod's demand that Ferraro be removed from the campaign.

Late Update: The Hillary campaign is now claiming that the Obama campaign played the race card here.

Today's Gallup tracking poll shows Barack obama with a national lead over Hillary Clinton, though it continues to be a tight race. Here are the numbers, compared to yesterday:

Obama 48% (-1)
Clinton 45% (+1)

These two have been going up and down, so don't be surprised if the lead switches quite a few more times. Just check out the graph for the last two-and-a-half weeks:

We've just confirmed with the California Democratic Party that reports in the blogosphere, which said that Barack Obama picked up additional delegates from the vote count in California, are correct.

Election Central spoke to Bob Mulholland, campaign adviser to the California Dems, and he confirmed that the delegate estimates for the California primary have been revised from the initial media estimates.

To put this in perspective, over one-million votes were yet to be counted when the media estimates were first made. Those estimates had Hillary at 207 delegates to Obama's 163. The new projection: A small alteration to Hillary 203, Obama 167, which Mulholland said is not expected to change when the election is officially certified this Saturday.

Today is the Mississippi primary, in which Barack Obama is excepted to win big thanks to heavy African-American turnout, as he has in other Deep South primaries.

The Jackson Clarion-Ledger says turnout is expected to be only light to moderate, but still higher than the 2004 primary when John kerry had already sewn up the nomination. The polls close at 8 p.m. ET.

Here are the latest polls:

ARG: Obama 54%, Clinton 38% (March 10)

InsiderAdvantage: Obama 54%, Clinton 37% (March 10)

Rasmussen: Obama 53%, Clinton 39% (March 8)

The Hillary campaign is already out with a memo hitting back at the Obama memo from earlier today saying there's no support for her claim that she's passed the "commander in chief test."

It tries to portray Obama's attacks on her credentials as a desperate response to the 3 A.M. ad, the continuing "commander in chief" assault that she's been waging on Obama, and the Ohio and Texas victories that this line of attack allegedly produced...

After last week's defeats, the Obama campaign faced a choice: try to convince voters that Senator Obama is ready to take the 3am phone call in a positive way or try to tear down Senator Clinton's accomplishments...They have chosen to attack.

After all this time, we're back on familiar ground: Both campaigns are asking the voters to see him or her as the primary victim here, a refrain we heard from both sides last fall in the run-up to the voting. (Yet another reminder of how long this campaign has been.)

The memo also reiterates -- at great length -- her claims to accomplishments in Northern Ireland and Kosovo, and rehashes the Samantha Power Iraq controversy as a way to argue that on foreign policy, Obama has a "credibility gap" and shouldn't be believed.

Full Hillary memo here.

Signaling a sustained and more aggressive counterattack against Hillary's "commander-in-chief test" assault, the Obama campaign has a new memo out from foreign policy adviser Greg Craig that goes after Hillary's claim to foreign policy seasoning with a sledgehammer:

There is no reason to believe...that she was a key player in foreign policy at any time during the Clinton Administration. She did not sit in on National Security Council meetings. She did not have a security clearance. She did not attend meetings in the Situation Room. She did not manage any part of the national security bureaucracy, nor did she have her own national security staff. She did not do any heavy-lifting with foreign governments, whether they were friendly or not. She never managed a foreign policy crisis, and there is no evidence to suggest that she participated in the decision-making that occurred in connection with any such crisis...

The Clinton campaign’s argument is nothing more than mere assertion, dramatized in a scary television commercial with a telephone ringing in the middle of the night. There is no support for or substance in the claim that Senator Clinton has passed “the Commander-in-Chief test.” That claim – as the TV ad – consists of nothing more than making the assertion, repeating it frequently to the voters and hoping that they will believe it.

Rough stuff -- and this is coming from a former Clinton administration State Department official, no less.

The Obama campaign has scheduled a conference call today with Iraq War vets who will attest to his commitment to veterans and the armed forces. That comes a day after a press conference with former service secretaries who praised his judgment and preparedness. Clearly, the battle is fully engaged now.

Full memo after the jump.

Read more »

For the first time by our reckoning, Obama himself has chastised the Hillary campaign over the allegation made by Matt Drudge that unnamed Hillary staffers "circulated" that pic of Obama in Somali garb...

"When in the midst of a campaign you decide to throw the kitchen sink at your opponent because you’re behind and your campaign starts leaking photographs of me when I’m traveling overseas wearing the native clothes of those folks to make people afraid, and then you run an ad talking about who’s going to answer the phone at three in the morning, an ad straight out of the Republican playbook, that’s not real change.”

But in response, the Hillary campaign points out that Obama already said he accepted Hillary's claim that she wasn't behind the photo...

SEN. OBAMA: Well, first of all, I take Senator Clinton at her word that she knew nothing about the photo. So I think that's something that we can set aside.

Since then, of course, the acrimony between the two campaigns has been jacked skyward. Hillary is sowing doubts about Obama's readiness to be commander-in-chief, and Obama is responding that she's using Rovian-style scare tactics -- a claim that the photo allegation slots neatly into.

Gov. Ed Rendell (D-PA), a Hillary Clinton supporter who has said the eventual nominee should offer the running-mate spot to the loser, said he'd be fine with an Obama-Clinton ticket, too. "That would be great either way," Rendell said. "I'd be happier if she were the presidential candidate, but I think that would be a good thing. We need to come together."

In light of the acrimony in the race, Rendell said that Obama would face the question, "'Senator Obama, you said Senator Clinton wasn't trustworthy; how can you make her vice-president?'" He added that Hillary would face a similar question: " 'Senator Clinton, you said Senator Obama was not ready to lead on national security.'"

Pressure is intensifying on Gov. Eliot Spitzer (D-NY) to resign his office in light of reports that he'd paid for meetings with prostitutes. Assembly Minority Leader James Tedisco (R-NY) told New York's CBS 2 that unless Spitzer resigns, Assembly Republicans will call for impeachment proceedings.

One catch: Assembly Democrats currently enjoy a 108-42 majority. So if an impeachment were to get off the ground, it would require a lot of Dems to be eager to throw Spitzer overboard.

Rep. Steve King (R-IA) has elaborated on his comments last week that al-Qaida would be "dancing in the streets" if Barack Obama wins, saying that Obama would "certainly be viewed as a savior for them. That's why you will see them supporting him, encouraging him."

Asked yesterday about King's comments, Obama responded that "Mr. King and individuals like him thrive on offensive or controversial statements as a way to get in the papers, so I don't take it too seriously. I would hope Senator McCain would want to distance himself from that kind of inflammatory and offensive remarks."

A spokesman for the McCain campaign disavowed King's remarks, but McCain himself has yet to reject King's support or otherwise weigh in on the subject.

(Via The Huffington Post)

A new SurveyUSA poll, conducted immediately after reports surfaced of Gov. Eliot Spitzer (D-NY) having paid to meet with a prostitute, shows a 58%-32% majority saying he should resign.

Support for his resignation cuts across all demographics — gender, age, race, party, ideology, marital status, region, and support for presidential candidates — with the only variation being in by just how much these different groups want him to go.

Some wishful thinking from the McCain camp? Check out how John McCain's list of supporters on his Web site describes the current -- we repeat, current -- president of the United States, George W. Bush...

Memo to McCain camp: We understand that Bush's ongoing presidency is a liability to your candidacy, and that you'd prefer it were a distant memory, but this kind of thing isn't going to help much...

During a campaign stop in Pennsylvania, Hillary Clinton was asked by reporters for comment on the Eliot Spitzer scandal:

"I obviously am sending my best wishes and thoughts to the governor and to his family," she told reporters after visiting with reporters in a local pizza parlor.

When asked whether Gov. Spitzer could survive politically she said "let's wait and see what comes out of the next few days. Right now I don't have any comment. I think it's appropriate to wish his family well and see how things develop."

The NRCC, which is broke and in danger of sustaining more House losses, is grabbing at the Eliot Spitzer prostitution scandal like a lifeline, sending out e-mails about Dem incumbents with the following title:

"Will John Hall Return Spitzer's Sleazy Money?"

So far we've received five e-mails over at TPM: Three messages targeting freshman incumbents Michael Arcuri, Kirsten Gillibrand and John Hall, plus two against challengers Dan Maffei and Eric Massa, all of whom the NRCC says are now "ensnared" in Spitzer's scandal.

Obama supporter Chris Dodd says he's got a simple solution to the standoff over what to do about Florida and Michigan's delegates: Divide them evenly between Hillary and Obama.

The Connecticut senator, an Obama backer and former presidential hopeful, said Monday such a move would save taxpayers from having to pay for do-over primaries that some party officials have proposed.

Michigan is a different matter altogether, of course, because her name was on the ballot and his wasn't.

He's a key supporter, and as Senator of his home state, Hillary will be expected to weigh in on Eliot Spitzer's travails.

But as of now, there's nothing from either her Senate office or her campaign.

Hillary Clinton has a new radio ad in Mississippi, specifically about the campaign itself and the momentum she might be enjoying.

"They said she couldn't do it. They counted her out. But Hillary Clinton fought back. And she won big," the announcer says. "Maybe that's why Barack Obama is running false attack ads against her now. But Hillary thinks Mississippians deserve the truth about what she's done and what she'll do."

Obama has been running his own radio ad featuring former Gov. Ray Mabus, attacking Hillary for having previously ridiculed the state of Mississippi during her Iowa campaign.

To listen to the ad, click here.

By now you've heard that New York Governor Eliot Spitzer has been fingered for his involvement with a prostitution ring, according to The New York Times.

It's worth pointing out that this will prevent Obama's aggressive speech today pushing back on the Clintons' veep chatter from dominating the news, which it surely would have otherwise.

Both MSNBC and CNN were running big with Obama's speech, but they abruptly cut away to Spitzer, and all the news coverage will be relentlessly focused on him for who knows how long. Indeed, the Spitzer story will temporarily freeze the presidential race.

Spitzer is a high-profile Hillary supporter, and as Senator from his home state, she'll be expected to weigh in on what his fate should be.

Obama responded at length at an event today to the possibility -- being floated by Bill and Hillary -- of a Hillary-Obama ticket.

Key line from Obama: "If I’m not ready, how is it that you think I should be such a great vice president?"

His quote is worth running at length -- here's a transcript:

With all due respect, I’ve won twice as many states as Sen. Clinton. I’ve won more of the popular vote than Sen. Clinton. I have more delegates than Sen. Clinton. So, I don’t know how somebody who’s in second place is offering the vice presidency to the person who’s in first place. [Long applause.]...

But there’s a second point. This is an interesting point -- I want you guys to follow me on this. You know Pres. Bill Clinton, back in 1992, when he was being asked about his selection for vice president, he said, “The only criteria, the most important criteria for vice president, is that that person is ready, if I fell out in the first week, that he or she would be ready to be the commander-in-chief.” That was his criteria.

Now, they have been spending the last two, three weeks -- you remember that advertisement with the phone call, telling everybody, getting all the generals to say well we’re not sure he’s ready, “I’m ready on day one, he may not be ready yet.”

But I don’t understand. If I’m not ready, how is it that you think I should be such a great vice president? Do you understand that?

See, I was trying to explain to someone the “okey-doke.” Y’all know the okey-doke? It’s when someone’s trying to bamboozle you, when they’re trying to hoodwink you. They are trying to hoodwink you. You can’t say that he’s not ready on day one, unless he’s willing to be your vice president and then he’s ready on day one.

I want everybody to be absolutely clear — I’m not running for vice president, I’m running for president of the United States of America.

I’m running for president of the United States of America. I’m running to be commander-in-chief. And the reason I’m running to be commander-in-chief is because I believe that the most important thing when you answer that phone call at 3 in the morning is: What kind of judgment you have?

And in a key line, Obama directly took on the notion that voters should want both of them on the ticket...

So I don’t want anybody here thinking that somehow, “Maybe I can get both.” Don’t think that way. You have to make a choice in this election. Are you gonna go along with the past, or are you gonna go towards the future? Are you gonna do the same old thing, or are you gonna try something new?

This will dominate the news cycle, and if Obama's supporters were worried that he hasn't hit back forcefully enough in recent days, this might go a long way towards allaying their concerns.

Video soon.

Late Update: Here's the video:

Unfortunately for Obama, the Eliot Spitzer story is probably going to overshadow this in tonight's news.

There was a pretty telling moment on a Hillary campaign conference call a few moments ago: Hillary advisers were asked by reporters how it is that Hillary could raise the possibility of Obama as her veep if he hadn't crossed the "commander-in-chief threshold," as she and her surrogates have been suggesting.

A good question indeed.

But Hillary spokesperson Howard Wolfson was prepared with a hedge. He said that the possibility of Obama as veep is not something that she is "prepared to rule out at this point," adding: "At the same time we continued to believe that Senator Obama has not passed the key commander-in-chief test at least at this point."

A bit later in the call, Wolfson was pressed on this question, and said:

"Senator Clinton will not choose any candidate who has not at the time of choosing passed the national security threshold. But we have a long way to go until Denver, and it's not something she's prepared to rule out at this point."

Emphasis mine. Wiggle room achieved, we suppose, though it is very hard to see how some of these comments from Hillary don't come back to bite in the unlikely event that she edges out a victory and offers the veep slot to Obama.

Speaking to the New Yorker, top Clinton strategist Mark Penn boasted that Hillary's wins in the Texas and Ohio primaries, and the campaign's attacks against Obama that led to those victories, mean the Obama machine's progress has been totally halted. "We broke his momentum completely," Penn said.

It remains to be seen just how "complete" the break in momentum was, considering Obama subsequently won by a landslide in Wyoming, and is expected to rack up another significant win tomorrow in Mississippi.

In another bit of dramatic overstatement, Penn also said that thanks to the Hillary camp's attacks, independent voters who have been supporting Obama are already deserting him: "As they get more of a sense that he’s not ready to be Commander-in-Chief, a lot of Independents who were supporting him are disappearing."

In a sign that the Obama camp may realize that they need to push back harder on Hillary's efforts to sow doubts about his readiness to be commander-in-chief, Obama will hold a press conference today with former service secretaries for the armed forces who will attest to his experience and judgment.

Among the secs attending: Secretary Clifford Alexander, Jr. (U.S. Army -- Carter Administration); Secretary Richard Danzig (U.S. Navy -- Clinton Administration); and Secretary F. Whitten Peters (U.S. Air Force -- Clinton Administration).

Hard to miss that two are from the administration of Hillary's husband.

One thing to watch for: Is this the beginning of a concerted effort to challenge Hillary's commander-in-chief assault much more aggressively?

A Rasmussen poll released over the weekend gives Barack Obama a 14-point lead for tomorrow's Mississippi primary: Obama 53%, Clinton 39%.

The internals shows a racial divide typical of Southern Democratic primaries thus far. Obama leads by an overwhelming 80%-12% among black voters, while Hillary is ahead 69%-22% among whites.

Govs. Ed Rendell (D-PA) and Jon Corzine (D-NJ), who are both supporting Hillary Clinton, are now saying they would be willing to help raise up to half of the $30 million it would take to hold new full-scale primaries in Michigan and Florida.

"He doesn't think that the states or the taxpayers in Michigan or Florida should pay for the election," said a spokeswoman for Corzine. "And he's glad to help the DNC raise money to cover the costs."

The Democratic National Committee is currently in talk with the Florida Democrats to hold a much cheaper mail-in primary, while separate negotiations have gone back and forth about holding a party-run "firehouse primary" in Michigan.

A few weeks ago the Clinton campaign shot down a report that they would seek to entice Barack Obama's pledged delegates into flipping over. Now the idea is being floated again — by Hillary herself.

"There are elected delegates, caucus delegates and super-delegates, all for different reasons, and they're all equal in their ability to cast their vote for whomever they choose," Hillary told Newsweek, when asked how she can win the nomination despite the current delegate math.

"Even elected and caucus delegates are not required to stay with whomever they are pledged to. This is a very carefully constructed process that goes back years, and we're going to follow the process."

(Via Mark Halperin)

Late Update: Hillary spokesperson Phil Singer e-mailed Election Central to say that his previous statement on this — that the Hillary camp has not and will not pursue Obama's pledged delegates — is still operative and that there's been no change of position. It's worth noting that in the Newsweek interview, Hillary didn't say outright that she would be pursuing them, and merely stated what the rules governing the delegates are (which can be read as implying possible pursuit of them later, of course).

After several days in which Hillary Clinton had led in Gallup's national Democratic polling, Barack Obama has again retaken a slight lead. Here are the numbers, compared to yesterday:

Obama 47% (+2)
Clinton 45% (-1)

Hillary lead was as high as 48%-44% for a few days in the tracking poll. As this race goes on longer, expect the lead to probably shift back and forth quite a few more times.