Barack Obama has released this Web video, essentially a video version of yesterday's blog post responding to the Jeremiah Wright controversy:

"Because these particular statements by Rev. Wright are so contrary to my own life and beliefs, a number of people have legitimately raised questions about the nature of my relationship with REv. Wright and my membership in the church," Obama says, then talking about his long-time membership in the church's community and with Wright as a human being.

"In other words," Obama said, "he has never been my political advisor — he's been my pastor."

(Via Ben Smith)

The Iowa caucuses might have been over two months ago, but Barack Obama is still making gains off of them. In today's Iowa county Democratic conventions — which those caucus delegates were elected to participate in — Obama picked up the votes of roughly half of John Edwards' former supporters, netting him seven delegates.

Going into the June state Democratic convention, where the federal delegates will finally be selected, Obama is projected to have 23 delegates to Hillary Clinton's 14, with eight remaining delegates either still nominally for Edwards or uncommitted.

To put this in perspective, Hillary's total gains in the Ohio primary amounted to a net advantage of nine delegates.

Late Update: NBC News is now putting Obama's projected net delegate gain at five, not seven. The current numbers: Obama 23, Clinton 16, Edwards/Uncommitted 6. Still, it's hardly a bad day for Obama.

Late Late Update: The newest NBC projections give Obama 25 delegates, Clinton 14, and Edwards/Uncommitted 6. That's a gain of nine delegates for Obama since the January 3 precinct caucuses, and a loss of one for Clinton.

Top fundraisers for Hillary Clinton have begun to exert direct and personal pressure on DNC chair Howard Dean, urging him to show more leadership to bring about some sort of resolution to the Florida and Michigan vote standoffs.

In an interview with Election Central, venture capitalist Alan Patricof, a member of Hillary's finance committee and one of the Democratic Party's most influential fundraisers, said that he'd privately urged Dean to do more to get the Florida and Michigan delegations seated -- something that's crucial to the Hillary camp's hopes of closing the gap with Obama.

"I've expressed to Dean my feeling that it's critical that this matter be resolved on a timely basis," Patricof says. "The voters in Florida and Michgan cannot be disenfranchised."

"He's got to exercise some leadership, and the sooner, the better," Patricof continued. "This is a party issue. We cannot afford to alienate this large a voting population in two very important states."

That such an influential fundraiser is unhappy with the DNC could prove problematic, since the DNC of course relies on such figures to keep the money flowing in.

Indeed, other Hillary donors tell The New York Times that if Dean doesn't resolve the situation, the stream of money to the DNC will dry up.

Pushing to seat the Florida delegates, at least one top Clinton fund-raiser, Paul Cejas, a Miami businessman who has given the Democratic National Committee $63,500 since 2003, has demanded Democratic officials return his 2007 contribution of $28,500, which they have agreed to do.

“If you’re not going to count my vote, I’m not going to give you my money,” said Mr. Cejas, who was the United States ambassador to Belgium from 1998 to 2001.

Christopher Korge, a Florida real estate developer who is another top fund-raiser for Mrs. Clinton, held an event last year in his home that brought in about $140,000 for the national party, which was set aside in a special account for the general election battle in Florida. But he told committee officials this week that if Florida’s delegate conundrum was not settled satisfactorily he would be asking for the money back.

“If we do not resolve this issue,” Mr. Korge said, “I think it’s safe to say there will be a request for a return of $140,000.”

In the interview with Election Central, Patricof seemed to suggest that more top donors would be insisting that Dean resolve the situation: "I'm sure there are other like-minded people who want this to happen," he said. "It's critical."

In the response to the controversies surrounding recently-aired videos of his sermons, Barack Obama's former pastor Jeremiah Wright has resigned his from honorary membership on the campaign's African American Religious Leadership Committee. NBC News says it's unclear whether Wright left of his own initiative, or if he was asked to leave.

Earlier today, Obama put up a long blog post explicitly condemning "any statement that disparages our great country" that Wright has made, while simultaneously standing by the man himself and his church — a delicate balancing act, to say the least, and probably not one that Obama was happy to find himself having to perform.

In a long blog posting at The Huffington Post, Barack Obama has made his most detailed and extensive reply yet to the questions he's been hit by in recent days about his pastor, Jeremiah Wright.

In the post, Obama condemns Wright's comments in very strong terms -- ones far stronger than, for instance, his assertion today that he "disagrees" with the pastor's "God damn America" comment...

Let me say at the outset that I vehemently disagree and strongly condemn the statements that have been the subject of this controversy. I categorically denounce any statement that disparages our great country or serves to divide us from our allies. I also believe that words that degrade individuals have no place in our public dialogue, whether it's on the campaign stump or in the pulpit. In sum, I reject outright the statements by Rev. Wright that are at issue.

Note the explicit reference there to "any statement that disparages our great country" -- a clear, if unstated, reference, to the "God damn America" line.

Obama also attempts to answer the question of why he hasn't left the church by pointing to his ties to the church's larger community and to Wright's sunsetting career...

The statements that Rev. Wright made that are the cause of this controversy were not statements I personally heard him preach while I sat in the pews of Trinity or heard him utter in private conversation. When these statements first came to my attention, it was at the beginning of my presidential campaign. I made it clear at the time that I strongly condemned his comments. But because Rev. Wright was on the verge of retirement, and because of my strong links to the Trinity faith community, where I married my wife and where my daughters were baptized, I did not think it appropriate to leave the church.

The post doesn't repudiate Wright himself or say anything about whether Wright will be allowed to keep his largely honorary post on the campaign's African American Religious Leadership Committee.

Obama's full post here.

Late Update: Obama is doing interviews with several major networks tonight, presumably to amplify his push-back on the Wright controversy.

On a call with some of his major California donors yesterday, Barack Obama acknowledged that Pennsylvania will be a steep uphill battle, and said that his aim is to get within 10 points of Hillary there, something that he said would be a "victory" for him, according to a donor on the call.

"He said that Pennsylvania is tough for them and that the demographics really are not the best for them," the donor tells me, adding that Obama was speaking to the group of 40-odd contributors via conference call.

"He said his goal is to finish within 10 points, and that that would be a victory for them. He said he'll be making a big effort there, but that she should win it and that the goal is to finish within 10."

Asked for comment on the conversation, Obama spokesperson Bill Burton didn't deny that it had taken place, saying: "She has a big lead, she won Ohio by 10 points and she is the favorite -- but we will fight as hard as we can for votes and delegates."

Obama's remarks are significant, because defining a Pennsylvania victory (and defeat) in such specific terms could make it tougher for the campaign to frame the actual results when they happen should he lose by more than 10 points. If he comes in under 10, however, setting expectations in advance this way could help.

Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL) is floating a new compromise idea for seating delegates from Florida: That the result of the January rogue primary be accepted as is, but that the overall delegate allotment be cut in half, as the Republican National Committee originally did to their unauthorized primaries.

If such an idea were accepted — a big "if" — then Hillary Clinton's hypothetical delegate margin from Florida would be reduced from +38 to +19. In exchange, the candidates wouldn't have to go to the trouble of running in a whole new primary contest or being in the position of throwing out Florida entirely.

(Via The Page)

You really do need to watch this new video that the McCain campaign has just put out — it's a neat preview of the sort of appeals we can expect in a general election.

The video is part of a fundraising appeal — the campaign is raising money off of tomorrow being the 35th anniversary of his release from the Hanoi Hilton. That and his POW experience are the subject of the vid:

The campaign has also sent out a special e-mail promoting the video, and asking recipients to donate to McCain's campaign.

Today's Gallup tracking poll shows Barack Obama extending a small lead into a significant one. Here are the numbers, compared to yesterday:

Obama 50% (+2)
Clinton 44% (-2)

Meanwhile, the two Democrats both tie John McCain in the general election match-ups:

Obama (D) 45%, McCain (R) 45%
Clinton (D) 46%, McCain (R) 46%

Just in case you'd forgotten about John McCain, you should know that he's out there campaigning, and he's actually saying stuff like this...

Republican presidential candidate John McCain said on Friday he fears that al Qaeda or another extremist group might attempt spectacular attacks in Iraq to try to tilt the U.S. election against him.

McCain, at a town hall meeting in this Philadelphia suburb, was asked if he had concerns that anti-American militants in Iraq might ratchet up their activities in Iraq to try to increase casualties in September or October and tip the November election against him.

"Yes, I worry about it," McCain said.

You know, I keep hearing from Republican pundits and operatives that the specter of terrorism inevitably bolsters the electoral prospects of Republicans. But here McCain says that Al Qaeda would amp up their attacks in Iraq to hurt him.

Hard to keep track of this stuff sometimes.

It's also worth noting that McCain's basically saying here that he "worries" that Al Qaeda will attack in order to help a Democrat become the next president.

In an interview with a Pittsburgh newspaper, Obama personally addresses the revelations that Obama's pastor said "God damn America":

Q: I don't know if you've seen it, but it's all over the wire today (from an ABC News story), a statement that your pastor (the Rev. Jeremiah Wright of Trinity United Church of Christ on Chicago's South Side) made in a sermon in 2003 that instead of singing "God Bless America," black people should sing a song essentially saying "God Damn America."

A: I haven't seen the line. This is a pastor who is on the brink of retirement who in the past has made some controversial statements. I profoundly disagree with some of these statements.

Q: What about this particular statement?

A: Obviously, I disagree with that. Here is what happens when you just cherry-pick statements from a guy who had a 40-year career as a pastor. There are times when people say things that are just wrong. But I think it's important to judge me on what I've said in the past and what I believe.

The fuller context of Wright's quote is here. In a 2003 sermon, Wright said:

"The government gives them the drugs, builds bigger prisons, passes a three-strike law and then wants us to sing 'God Bless America.' No, no, no, God damn America, that's in the Bible for killing innocent people. God damn America for treating our citizens as less than human. God damn America for as long as she acts like she is God and she is supreme."

The Wright story has been all over the cable nets since yesterday. As Ben Smith notes, Obama is refusing "to throw him overboard, as both campaigns have been doing at a furious pace with other supporters."

The Obama campaign didn't immediately respond when asked whether Wright would be keeping his largely honorary post on the campaign's African American Religious Leadership Committee.

The Obama campaign's Michigan co-chair says that all the momentum right now in private negotiations between Michigan Dems is behind the option of having a redo primary in the state, suggesting that an agreement on a redo is likely.

"There's a lot of momentum behind the redo option," the Obama official, State Senator Tupac Hunter, told me by phone a few minutes ago, adding that he'd been in discussions with Michigan Democratic Party officials as late as last night. The redo option is "taking up the lion's share of the discussions," Hunter says.

Hunter also said that the mail-in vote option, which the Obama camp had expressed concerns about, is "pretty much dead."

Separately, the Associated Press, citing anonymous officials, reports that Michigan Democrats are close to an agreement on the redo option. Hunter's comments represent on-the-record confirmation of this.

The word in political circles today is that an announcement of a deal on a redo could come today, but I haven't yet been able to confirm that this is the case.

Read more »

A review of the super-delegate math by Bloomberg News shows just how quickly Barack Obama has caught up to Hillary Clinton. Among members of Congress and governors, Hillary only leads by a 103-96 margin, meaning that her lead of just under 40 supers comes almost entirely from Democratic National Committee members.

Meanwhile, Obama has done a better job than Hillary at picking up those supporters in the last few months. Since Iowa, he has gained 53 endorsements from the elected super-delegates, compared to only 12 for Hillary. And even after Hillary's comeback on March 4, Obama has gained nine total super-delegates to Hillary's one.

Sen. John Ensign (R-NV), the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, admitted in an interview with The Hill that it's unlikely for the GOP to get regain a Senate majority. Ensign cited problems with fundraising and candidate recruitment, especially the failure get top candidates in key Democratic seats.

"There is no question that getting back in the majority now, because of some of the recruiting – some of these just terrific candidates that we wanted ended up not running – would be a very long stretch," said Ensign. "That’s the best way I can say it."

The Democrats may end up with a tough open House seat to defend, with Congressman Bud Cramer (D-AL) announcing his retirement.

The district voted 60%-39% for President Bush in 2004, and though Cramer had been able to easily hold the seat as a relatively conservative Dem since his first election in 1990, an open-seat race will probably be a top target for the Republicans.

One of the Hillary campaign's central claims in recent days has been that her advantage over Obama in Pennsylvania suggests she's a stronger general election candidate than Barack Obama.

Today Hillary pollster Mark Penn opined that Hillary's presumed victory in Pennsylvania will show that Obama can't win a general election. And the campaign has repeatedly expressed the view that "the road to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue runs right through Pennsylvania."

But we subscribe to the novel idea that general election match-up numbers, not primary ones, are a better indicator for what will happen in the general election.

So here are all the polls that we could find for this whole year -- that is, since the primaries and caucuses actually started -- measuring how both Obama and Hillary fare against John McCain in Pennsylvania:

Rasmussen (March 13)
McCain (R) 46%, Clinton (D) 44%
McCain (R) 44%, Obama (D) 43%

Strategic Vision (R) (March 12)
McCain (R) 48%, Clinton (D) 42%
McCain (R) 47%, Obama (D) 44%

SurveyUSA (March 6)
Clinton (D) 47%, McCain (R) 46%
McCain (R) 47%, Obama (D) 42%

Quinnipiac (February 27)
Clinton (D) 44%, McCain (R) 42%
Obama (D) 42%, McCain (R) 40%

Franklin & Marshall (February 21)
McCain (R) 44%, Clinton (D) 42%
McCain (R) 44%, Obama (D) 43%

Rasmussen (February 17)
McCain (R) 44%, Clinton (D) 42%
Obama (D) 49%, McCain (R) 39%

Quinnipiac (February 14)
Clinton (D) 46%, McCain (R) 40%
Obama (D) 42%, McCain (R) 41%

Rasmussen (January 8)
McCain (R) 48%, Clinton (D) 42%
McCain (R) 46%, Obama (D) 38%

As you can see, Hillary does fare slightly better against McCain in several more polls, but the differences overall seem statistically minor at best, and certainly don't justify Penn's claims. More to the point, Hillary and Obama both beat McCain in the same number of polls -- three each.

Separately, the Pollster.com averages put McCain ahead of Hillary by 45.2%-44.2%, and ahead of Obama 44.2%-41.9% — a McCain lead of 1.0% versus 2.3%. This, too, is a statistically insignificant difference.

Bottom line: The general election match-ups suggest that it's a huge stretch to make a Hillary-is-more-electable argument for Pennsylvania based simply on Democratic primary numbers.

From the no-rest-for-the-weary-of-debates department comes this release just out from the Clinton camp...

The Clinton campaign today announced that Hillary has accepted an invitation to participate in a primetime debate hosted by ABC. The debate will be held in Philadelphia, PA in advance of the April 22nd Pennsylvania primary. The debate will be broadcast statewide and nationally.

No word on what the Obama camp will do yet.

Late Update: The Obama campaign accepts the ABC debate and one-ups the Hillary campaign with this release...

Today, Barack Obama accepted invitations to nationally televised debates with Senator Hillary Clinton in Philadelphia on April 16th and in North Carolina on April 19th.

The Pennsylvania debate will be hosted by ABC News and held in the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia on Wednesday, April 16. The North Carolina debate, hosted by CBS News at a location to be determined, will be hosted by CBS and moderated by Katie Couric and Bob Schieffer.

I'll see your Pennsylvania and raise you a North Carolina.

Okay, so the Philly debate will happen on April 16th. No word on what Camp Hillary will do on North Carolina.

And it looks like Katie Couric may get to moderate her very own debate, after all!

From the Associated Press comes this news about a press conference today in Florida where the head of the Florida Dems expressed extreme pessimism about a solution to the revote standoff...

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. - The head of Florida's Democratic Party said Thursday the proposed vote-by-mail presidential primary is unlikely to go forward because of strong opposition and concerns about conducting the vote.

Karen Thurman said she is asking Democratic leaders, the national party and presidential candidates Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton to consider the option as the best way to resolve the delegate dispute. Florida had all 210 of its delegates to the national convention stripped after it violated national party rules by moving up its primary to January.

When asked if the alternative will be implemented, knowing what she knows about potential problems executing the plan and widespread concerns, Thurman said, "I have a feeling that this is probably closer to not, than yes."...

"If this becomes something that we can't do, then we can't do it," Thurman said.

There are multiple problems. First, there are procedural difficulties in getting such a thing implemented. What's more, the Obama camp has concerns about a mail-in scheme, and today on CNN Howard Dean said the DNC wouldn't back any plan that isn't favored by both campaigns: "We’d like to do it in a way that’s fair, that both sides believe is fair. Fair to the voters but also fair to the campaigns."

So what's the upshot? I checked in with DNC spokesperson Stacie Paxton, who said:

There are two options. They can resubmit a plan and run a party process to select delegates or they can appeal to the Convention Credentials Committee which resolves questions about the seating of delegates.

What this fundamentally means is that there's little that the DNC can do to resolve this -- if Florida officials don't agree on a plan, and one that's acceptable to both campaigns, to boot, it's all but certain that there will be no revote at all.

And what happens then? Well, Florida officials can appeal to the DNC's credentials committee, which will consider various plans to get the delegation sat in some form or other. At that point, it's anyone's guess what will happen. In short, mayhem is on the horizon.

Today's Gallup tracking poll shows that the Democratic race continues to be very tight in the national preference. Here are the numbers, compared to yesterday:

Obama 48% (+1)
Clinton 46% (+1)

Meanwhile, the two of them both narrowly edge out John McCain in general-election match-ups:

Obama (D) 46%, McCain (R) 44%
Clinton (D) 47%, McCain (R) 45%

On the Clinton campaign conference call today, chief strategist Mark Penn discussed Pennsylvania, and made a rather strong statement about the significance of the state. He said the following about Hillary's expected win there...

"We believe this will again show that Hillary is ready to win and that Senator Obama really can't win the general election."

This stops about a milllionth of an inch short of an out-and-out declaration that Obama can't win a general. He seems to be saying that Obama's expected loss in Pennsylvania, and the scale of it, will show that he can't win a general election.

This is in keeping with earlier remarks by Hillary and her surrogates to the effect that he has not passed the "commander in chief test" sufficiently to win a general. Ben Smith is right to observer that this is a pretty strong thing to say. And later on the call, the Hillary people backtracked from the remark.

What this really reflects, I think, is the difficult (or perhaps impossible) balancing act the Hillary camp is trying to strike between portraying Obama as unfit for the general election to sow doubts among super-delegates while maintaining a posture of loyalty to the larger Democratic cause.

A new poll from the University of Central Arkansas shows that Hillary Clinton would have a far better shot than Barack Obama at carrying this red state:

Clinton (D) 51%, McCain (R) 36%
McCain (R) 43%, Obama (D) 27%

Arkansas has six electoral votes — not many, but potentially enough to make the difference in a very close race. President Bush carried the state twice, but it's also where Bill Clinton was governor and Hillary the first lady for 12 years.

A key Clinton surrogate, Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell, has just given voice to a Clinton campaign argument that's been bubbling below the surface but is rarely voiced quite this explicitly: The idea that the popular vote is at least as democratic a metric for judging the winner as the pledged delegate count is.

On a conference call with reporters moments ago, Rendell said: "Let's assume that Senator Clinton goes ahead in the popular vote count." He then asked, "which is more democratic" -- choosing the winner of the popular vote or the winner of the pledged delegate count.

"The way we select delegates is not all that democratic," Rendell continued, in a reference to caucus voting. "The rules were going in that super-delegates were there to exercise their judgment...as a super-delegate I want to make sure we win in the fall, and I'm gonna take the candidate who can do that."

As I reported here yesterday, at a private powwow with major donors, Hillary advisers conveyed the message that her success depends on their ability to persuade the super-dels to consider three "data points" -- the pledged delegate count, the popular vote, and the specific states won by each candidate.

As Rendell shows, the argument that the popular vote is at least as "democratic" a metric as the pledged del count is going to be a key one, and we'll hear more of it going forward.

Late Update: Rendell was talking about what would happen if she had the popular vote lead when it's all over, but even so, it seems worth noting that Obama is ahead in the popular vote right now, according to Real Clear Politics, even when you factor in Florida and Michigan.

The new Rasmussen poll of Pennsylvania gives Hillary Clinton a strong lead in the primary, not significantly changed from their poll a week ago:

Clinton 51% (-1)
Obama 38% (+1)

A key statistic from the internals: Among Clinton voters, 39% agree with Geraldine Ferraro's comments about Barack Obama, while 47% disagree. Among Obama's voters, 93% of them disagree.

As for the general election match-ups, Rasmussen has John McCain narrowly ahead against either of the two Democrats:

McCain (R) 46%, Clinton (D) 44%
McCain (R) 44%, Obama (D) 43%

During an appearance last night at a conference of black community newspaper publishers, Hillary Clinton publicly apologized for the furor surrounding her campaign and Geraldine Ferraro's comments about Barack Obama.

"I certainly do repudiate it and I regret deeply that it was said," Clinton said. "Obviously she doesn't speak for the campaign, she doesn't speak for any of my positions, and she has resigned from being a member of my very large finance committee."

A proposal now being considered for the Michigan primary is that the mulligan primary would be an otherwise normal, state-run contest, but with the state Democratic Party reimbursing the state for roughly $10 million needed to run it.

This idea had previously been viewed as unfeasible, but the Detroit Free Press says it was given new life when Govs. Jon Corzine (D-NJ) and Ed Rendell (D-PA), both Hillary Clinton supporters, offered to help raise the money for new contests in Florida and Michigan.

The new NBC/Wall St. Journal poll released last night shows Hillary Clinton with a national lead of 47%-43% over Barack Obama — but somewhat paradoxically, the same Democratic respondents view Obama as the more electable candidate by a 48%-38% margin. Perceived electability often tracks with preference, as people see their own candidate as the stronger one.

As for match-ups against John McCain, they actually seem to be about equally electable at this juncture. Obama beats McCain 47%-44%, while Hillary is ahead of McCain 47%-45%.

Following her resignation from the Clinton campaign finance committee, Geraldine Ferraro was unapologetic regarding her remarks about Barack Obama's political success — and said it's the Obama campaign who have endeavored to make the campaign about race.

"They have played the race card time after time after time," Ferraro told the New York Times. "The campaign has a goal, which is to attack Hillary. They have to find a way and they can't do it on experience, on issues, so they look for places. They came up with this, and, well, here we go."

What's Keith Olbermann going to say now?

The Florida Democratic Party is now circulating a draft proposal to hold a new mail-in primary ending on June 3, combined with 50 regional offices to help disadvantaged communities participate.

The plan would cost between $10 million and $12 million, and have to be financed through the state party's own fundraising efforts. The party would begin raising the money on Monday, if party leaders have given their approval by Friday.

"Fingers have been pointed in every direction, but how we arrived at this breaking point is irrelevant," state party chair Karen Thurman said in a letter obtained by the AP. "The stark reality is that all Democrats lose if this is not resolved immediately."

A new poll from Republican firm Strategic Vision gives Hillary Clinton an overwhelming lead of 56%-38% for the Pennsylvania primary, consistent with other polls showing her way ahead. A lot could change in the next six weeks, of course, but she definitely starts out with the upper hand.

Interestingly, the poll also indicates that Barack Obama could potentially be the more electable candidate here, though it's not a statistically significant difference. She loses to John McCain 48%-42%, while he loses by a closer 47%-44%.

Ben Smith has followed up on our earlier post about the Michigan situation, and got in touch with Tupac Hunter, the state co-chair for Obama's campaign.

Hunter reiterated his stance that the Obama campaign is opposed to a mail-in vote, and seemed to suggest again that the Obama camp opposes any revote at all — a position that turns out to be in contrast with the Obama campaign's official position that they'll abide by whatever agreement is reached between the DNC and the state party.

Obama spokesperson Bill Burton told Smith that Hunter is not accurately representing the campaign's position: "Anything other than the fact that we think that the DNC and states ought to work this out, but we'll play by the rules, is not an expression of the position of the campaign."

In a private meeting in D.C. with her top fundraisers from all over the country today, Hillary gave a rousing pep-talk in which she flatly predicted, "we're gonna win this," according to a fundraiser who was present.

In a series of closed-door meetings in Washington today, fundraisers were given extensive presentations from top Hillary advisers and surrogates about strategy and about what needs to be done to win over super-delegates should she fail to close the pledged delegate gap, the fundraiser says.

The fundraiser adds that there were expressions of frustration with DNC chair Howard Dean for not doing enough to resolve the Florida and Michigan situations.

I reported below that the Hillary campaign summoned its top fundraisers for an all-day affair in D.C. today. The fundraiser who was present gave me a rough run-down on some of what transpired.

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Geraldine Ferraro has announced in a letter to Hillary Clinton that she is resigning from Hillary's campaign finance committee:

Dear Hillary –

I am stepping down from your finance committee so I can speak for myself and you can continue to speak for yourself about what is at stake in this campaign.

The Obama campaign is attacking me to hurt you.

I won't let that happen.

Thank you for everything you have done and continue to do to make this a better world for my children and grandchildren.

You have my deep admiration and respect.

Gerry

I'm surprised this didn't happen sooner, actually: Hillary spokesperson Howard Wolfson finally reached into his deck and whipped out the Geffen card.

In a conference call with reporters today, Wolfson offered a new response to the Ferraro race flap, pointing out that Obama didn't ax one of his top fundraisers, David Geffen, when he said all kinds of nasty things to Maureen Dowd about Hillary, triggering one of the first controversies of the campaign.

At the time, Obama said he disagreed with Geffen, but added: "It's not clear to me why I would be apologizing for someone else's remarks."

Wolfson reminded reporters of this today and used it to defend Hillary's handling of the Ferraro matter.

Of course, Ferraro's comments were racially-charged, whereas Geffen was just being a jerk. Obama today took something of a high road, distancing himself from the notion that Ferraro's eruption was part of a Clinton campaign pattern.

Separately, here's a sobering thought: Guess when Dowd's Geffen column was? Over a year ago. That's how long this bilge has been flying back and forth.

Late Update: It looks like Wolfson must be getting his ideas from Steve Benen.

Today was day three of Obama's Commander-In-Chief tour.

For the third day in a row, Obama stood at an event with retired military brass and touted his commander-in-chief credentials — yet another sign that his campaign takes very seriously the need to push back on Hillary's claim that he isn't ready for the job, and that she is.

In his speech at the Chicago History Museum, Obama laid the blame for the country's foreign policy problems squarely with politicians like Hillary: "After years of being told that Democrats have to talk, act and vote like John McCain to pass some Commander-in-Chief test, how many times do we have to learn that tough talk is not a substitute for sound judgment?"

The full speech is available after the jump.

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Not sure what to make of this. Obama campaign manager David Plouffe has repeatedly said in conference calls that the Obama camp's position on revotes in Michigan and Florida is that it will abide with whatever compromise the Democratic National Committee works out with the state parties.

But Obama's campaign co-chair in Michigan, Tupac Hunter, is now saying that the Obama campaign won't accept any revote, according to a new report. Check out this nugget in the Detroit News...

State Sen. Tupac Hunter, D-Detroit, said a mail-in caucus "is clearly the wrong path.

"We don't like it one bit," Hunter said. "It disenfranchises people who need to participate and there are many questions with regard to security."

Hunter said the Obama campaign will accept nothing but a 50-50 split of Michigan delegates between Clinton and Obama, who removed his name from the January ballot here in protest of the early date.

"Nothing but a 50-50 split of Michigan delegates" seems to mean no revote of any kind, obviously. What Plouffe says clearly trumps what the Detroit official says, and this isn't a direct quote. Nonetheless, the Detroit News seems pretty definitive here. If nothing else, this is another sign of just how complicated and in flux the situation is and how many players there are at the local and national level to get on the same page.

I'm told that Hunter and Obama's other Michigan co-chair are giving a presser today in Michigan to address this, so we'll find out from them directly what they have to say.

Late Update: This is getting more curious. Ben Smith quotes Obama today at a presser saying the following about this:

"My bottom line is I do want to make sure that both the Florida and the Michigan delegations have an opportunity to participate in the convention," Obama said.

As Ben notes: "What's striking there is that he didn't say he wanted to votes to be counted or the voters to express their wills. And focusing on the rights of delegates matches the stance" that his Michigan chair took here.

Late Late Update: An Obama spokesperson tells Ben that he was reading too much into Obama's words.

Today's Gallup tracking poll shows a close national race between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, in a campaign that has been characterized recently by repeated swings back and forth. Here are the numbers, compared to yesterday:

Obama 47% (-1)
Clinton 45% (+0)

Meanwhile, Gallup has the two of them doing equally well against John McCain:

Obama (D) 46%, McCain (R) 44%
Clinton (D) 47%, McCain (R) 45%

One thing to keep in mind about the Obama camp's electability arguments is that they're being amplified right now for a reason: It's the argument over who's more electable that could very well play a key role in what the super-delegates do when the voting is all over.

The super-dels are the real target of the Obama camp's pitch -- and Camp Hillary's, too. The Obama camp knows that Hillary advisers are currently, and will continue, to press the case privately to super-delegates that his failure to win key big states should make them nervous about his prospects this fall -- and that this should influence them even if Obama wins the pledged del count.

The Obama camp is now ratcheting up its public and private efforts to neutralize this argument, in hopes of persuading the super-dels to follow the winner of the pledged-del count.

For instance, the Obama campaign has just sent out another memo -- the second of the day! -- elaborating the case for his electability and attempting to debunk Hillary's "big states" spin. This one's signed by pols in non-"key" states Obama has won: Iowa's Chet Culver, Wisconsin's Jim Doyle, Washington's Christine Gregoire, Virginia's Tim Kaine, and Missouri's Claire McCaskill.

Key excerpt:

The Clinton campaign’s argument ignores relevant facts about how significant a role these [smaller] states played in determining the outcome of the presidential race in 2004. In fact, Obama has won 7 of 9 of the biggest states that were close in the 2004 presidential election and have already selected delegates to the 2008 Democratic convention.

More than half of the votes that Senator Clinton has won so far have come from just five states. It’s also worth noting that polls in four of these five states show that Obama would be a stronger general election candidate against McCain than Clinton.

The full memo is here.

We hear that Hillary's top fundraisers will be sitting down to a private meeting with her today for a pep talk and a wide-ranging look at the state of the race.

According to a copy of the invitation, which was sent our way, the fundraisers were set to start their day getting a policy briefing from top Hillary supporters like Senators Bill Nelson, Robert Menendez and Debbie Stabenow.

Following that is a private luncheon with the candidate herself, at an upscale restaurant in D.C.'s Union Station.

What with Obama's two victories in Mississippi and and Wyoming, his potentially-insurmountable pledged delegate lead, and the unresolved situations in Florida and Michigan, antsy donors will no doubt be asking a lot of tough questions. We'll bring you more on the meeting when we get it.

The Obama camp is seizing on a comment made by Clinton adviser Harold Ickes to today's New York Times to broaden its case that Obama's far more electable in a general than Hillary is.

Ickes, speaking of states Obama won or is likely to win, said:

"Most of those states haven’t voted Democratic in a presidential since the Johnson landslide over Goldwater in 1964, and we don’t see that changing. They’re great states, but Idaho, Nebraska and the Carolinas are not going to be in the Democratic column in November. He’s winning the Democratic process, but that is virtually irrelevant to the general election."

On a conference call with reporters just now, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe used the Ickes quote to beat the electability drum, arguing that Camp Hillary's concession of this general election turf is a sign of her weakness against McCain.

"Amazingly, they said that the Democratic nominee could not carry the Carolinas," Plouffe said. "We think that speaks to their weakness in the general election. We think we can win the state of North Carolina. Clinton has already waved the white flag [there]. North Carolina will be a central battleground if Obama is our nominee."

Plouffe, in an argument we'll be hearing more and more of in the days ahead, also moved to undermine the idea that the popular vote outcome, as opposed to the pledged del count, should be a metric we use to judge the winner when the voting ends.

"We think they're trying to create another diversion out there," Plouffe said of the Clintons, adding that Obama would end up gaining 100,000 votes out of last night's contests, leaving him with a comfortable popular vote lead overall.

And there you have the contours of the argument over electability and over the relevance of the popular vote that you'll be hearing from Camp Obama for the next six weeks or so.

Late Update: Hillary spokesperson Phil Singer responds:

The path to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue goes through Pennsylvania so if Barack Obama can’t win there, how will he win the general election?

Barack Obama's likely delegate take from Mississippi appears to be a +5 edge — while he won the popular vote by 24 points, Hillary Clinton's narrow win in the First Congressional District will apparently keep the delegate margin at 19-14.

But here's something to put it in perspective: Between the Mississippi and Wyoming results alone, Obama will have just about undone Hillary's small delegate gains from March 4.

Here are the latest delegate estimates from various news organization, including super-delegates unless otherwise noted:

CNN: Obama 1,608,