In an amazing upset, the Democrats have won the special election for the House seat of former Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-IL), a district that has long been in Republican hands and voted 55%-44% for President Bush in 2004.

With 99% reporting, Democrat Bill Foster, a physicist and businessman, leads Republican businessman and perennial candidate Jim Oberweis by 52%-48%, and has been projected the winner by the Associated Press.

Prediction: The Obama campaign will shop this around to uncommitted super-delegates, as evidence that they can expand the electoral playing field. One thing that helped Foster greatly was a well-organized get out the vote machine that the state party had organized to beef up Obama's totals in the Super Tuesday primary, and Obama himself took the time to cut an ad for Foster's campaign.

And at the very least, Obama can probably count on the support of one particular super-delegate: Congressman-Elect Bill Foster (D-IL).

Bill Clinton is pushing the idea of a Hillary-Obama ticket, but Obama isn't ready to play along:

Obama was asked by a television reporter, "Can you ever see yourself on the same ticket as Sen. Clinton?"

And the freshman Illinois senator replied: "Well, you know, I think it’s premature. You won’t see me as a vice presidential candidate -- you know, I’m running for president. We have won twice as many states as Senator Clinton, and have a higher popular vote, and I think we can maintain our delegate count."

"You won’t see me as a vice presidential candidate," Obama says. Sounds pretty definitive.

Has anyone asked Hillary whether she's open to the idea of being Obama's veep?

CNN and NBC call Wyoming for Obama. With 91% reporting, it's 58%-41%.

CNN's estimate has it that seven delegates go to Obama, and four to Hillary, with one left. So what's outstanding is whether Obama has a net gain over her of two delegates, or four.

More soon.

Late Update: On a conference call with reporters, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe argued that tonight's results put Hillary in a deeper hole.

He noted that given tonight's results, Hillary has to win 63% of the remaining pledged delegates, which "would mean getting 68% or 70% of the vote everywhere."

"We're getting down the field," Plouffe said.

Plouffe also made some of his most aggressive comments yet about Hillary's assault on Obama, saying outright that she has chosen a "scorched earth" strategy designed to "destroy Senator Obama in some way" in order to get the super-delegates to see him as un-electable and hence support her.

Now Bill Clinton is saying it. Here he is, floating the idea of a joint Hillary-Obama ticket at a town-hall meeting today in Mississippi:

"She said yesterday and she said the day after her big wins in Texas and Ohio and Rhode Island that she was very open to that and I think she answered explicitly yes yesterday," Clinton began, referring to Hillary's own answers on the topic in recent days.

"I know that she has always been open to it, because she believes that if you can unite the energy and the new people that he’s brought in and the people in these vast swaths of small town and rural America that she’s carried overwhelmingly, if you had those two things together she thinks it’d be hard to beat. I mean you look at the, you look at the, you look at the map of Texas and the map in Ohio. And the map in Missouri or -- well Arkansas’s not a good case because they know her and she won every place there.

"But you look at most of these places, he would win the urban areas and the upscale voters, and she wins the traditional rural areas that we lost when President Reagan was president. If you put those two things together, you’d have an almost unstoppable force."

Via the Page. Note the extent to which he volunteered her thinking on this. This report suggests that he offered this in an answer to a question. But Hillary floated this yesterday, and, now, Bill today -- and it's hard to imagine that both Clintons would be talking this up in tandem by accident.

Separately, Newsweek's poll today finds that 69% of Dems support the idea.

Late Update: Obama himself rejected the possibility that he'd serve as veep:

Obama was asked by a television reporter, "Can you ever see yourself on the same ticket as Sen. Clinton?"

And the freshman Illinois senator replied: "Well, you know, I think it’s premature. You won’t see me as a vice presidential candidate -- you know, I’m running for president. We have won twice as many states as Senator Clinton, and have a higher popular vote, and I think we can maintain our delegate count."

It turns out that one of the kids who was "safe and asleep" in Hillary's controversial red phone ad would prefer that Barack Obama answer that 3 A.M. phone call in the White House.

A new report from King5, an NBC affiliate in Washington State, says that the first sleeping girl shown in the ad is a young local resident named Casey Knowles. King5 adds that the footage of her asleep is eight-year-old stock footage -- and that she turns voting age next month.

And according to the report, she is supporting Obama...

"I think it would be really wonderful if me and Barack Obama could get together and make a nice counter ad," Knowles said.

One imagines that this just might happen.

Casey would, however, prefer that Hillary, rather than John McCain, answer that 3 A.M. call. She tells King5.com that she'll vote for Hillary in the general should she win the nomination.

Check out this headline on the front page of the CNN politics section:

So who is this "fellow legislator" who says Obama isn't as bold as his rhetoric suggests? If you click through to the article, you discover that it's Dan Cronin -- a Republican. Yet there's no indication in the hed that this is a partisan attack.

And as a special bonus, the bogus hed is packaged with that photo of Obama looking all glum and caught out. Just Godawful. Kind of funny to think that someone actually signed off on this.

Special thanks to TPM Reader PW for sending this one in.

Here's another key number buried in the new Newsweek poll: It shows that Dems are pretty much evenly split on whether the super-delegates should back the candidate who wins the pledged delegate count and/or popular vote or whether they should back the candidate of their choice...

Should neither Clinton nor Obama secure enough delegates to win the nomination (a scenario that looks increasingly likely), 43 percent of Democrats said they would prefer that the candidate trailing in the delegate count concede the nomination, while 42 percent think superdelegates should choose the nominee.

Should the ball end up in the superdelegates' court, most respondents (42 percent) think they should choose the best-qualified nominee in their judgment, while 38 percent believe they should choose the person with the popular vote lead.

We haven't seen this polled anywhere else; if anyone else has, please let us know.

My guess is that should Obama win the pledged del count and especially also the popular vote, all the media attention given to it would shift these numbers significantly in his favor.

Nonetheless, these numbers suggest the possibility that the war over what the super dels do could amount to yet another bruising political battle and that things could get very, very murky and ugly at the end.

From Newsweek:

Sen. Hillary Clinton's primary victories in Texas, Ohio and Rhode Island have revived her near-dead campaign and brought her into a statistical dead heat with Sen. Barack Obama among registered Democrats and Democratic leaners, according to a new national NEWSWEEK Poll...

Obama is the favored nominee among 45 percent of Democrats, compared with 44 percent for Clinton, according to the poll, which was based on telephone interviews with 1,215 registered voters March 5-6.

The controversial 3 A.M. ad may have helped, Newsweek sez, but the poll also suggests that it's unclear how much the "commander in chief threshold" that Hillary keeps talking about will matter in the long run...

[The poll] suggested that Clinton's ominous "3 a.m. phone call" ad benefited her campaign. Almost half (45 percent) of Democrats said they would trust Clinton to answer the red phone in the wee hours, while only a third felt that way about Obama. Similarly, on the issue of national security, almost half (47 percent) of the Democratic base said that they trust Clinton to protect the country; only a third feel the same about Obama.

But it's not clear how much these sentiments will matter at the ballot box: just 4 percent of Democrats overall, and 4 percent of Clinton's supporters, name terrorism as their top issue.

And the poll also contains a key stat for Obama: She is still far more polarizing than he. Forty percent of registered voters view her unfavorably, while 35% have that view of McCain and only 28 percent view Obama unfavorably.

After a year of arguments, lawsuits and an unauthorized primary, a deal may finally be close at hand for a do-over primary in Florida.

The details have yet to be worked out precisely, according to Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL), but it would involve a mail-in vote administered by the state party. "My job is clear," Nelson told Newsweek. "It's to stand up for the right of Floridians to vote as intended."

But here's the catch: The millions of dollars necessary to pay for this would have to be provided through unlimited soft-money contributions to the state party. That's right — this would be a special election funded by special interests.

Meanwhile, Sen. Carl Levin (D-MI) has announced his firm opposition to a mulligan primary in his state.

On the trail today in Wyoming, Obama responded to the revelation that top foreign policy adviser Samantha Power had suggested that he might not rely on his campaign pledges when crafting a withdrawal plan as president.

From a transcript of Obama's remarks emailed out by the campaign...

She was quoted either this morning or last night in Mississippi because one of my advisors had said that in a interview overseas that well Senator Obama would not...he has given a time frame for withdrawal, but obviously it would be subject to decisions and the situation at the time.

And so, Senator Clinton used this to try to imply that I wasn’t serious about bringing this war to an end. I just have to mention this because I don’t want anybody here to be confused.

Power didn't merely say in the interview that Obama's withdrawal would be "subject to decisions and the situation at the time." She also said: "He will, of course, not rely on some plan that he’s crafted as a presidential candidate or a U.S. Senator."

Obama also suggested that her initial support for the war should undermine the credibility of her criticism of him on it: "I don’t want to play politics on this issue because she doesn’t have standing to question my position on this issue."

Presuming that Hillary will continue to hit Obama for his alleged lack of commander in chief cred, the question in the days ahead will be whether Obama can effectively counter the assault by pointing to her lack of real live commander-in-chief experience and to her failure of judgment in supporting the war. We'll see if it works.

Fuller transcript after the jump.

Read more »

The Scotsman reporter who caused Samantha Power to lose her gig advising Obama speaks out, defends use of quotes even though Power said they were "off the record"...

Hillary spokesperson Howard Wolfson, on a conference call with reporters a few moments ago:

"The issue of who's best prepared to be commander-in-chief will continue to drive the discussion in this campaign because it is a critical one."

Translation: We've got a winner, we're gonna keep beating Obama's brains in with it, and if we get our way, that ain't gonna change anytime soon.

John McCain is now starting to inch away from the support of televangelist John Hagee -- known for his eager anticipation of Armageddon, plus his inflammatory comments against the Catholic Church and other groups -- now that the press has noticed the problem here.

"We've had a dignified campaign, and I repudiate any comments that are made, including Pastor Hagee's, if they are anti-Catholic or offensive to Catholics," McCain told the Associated Press. "I sent two of my children to Catholic school. I categorically reject and repudiate any statement that was made that was anti-Catholic, both in intent and nature."

McCain said he was responding to yesterday's criticism from Nancy Pelosi, describing Pelosi's censure of Hagee's views and McCain's association with Hagee as an "attack."

However, it still sounds like McCain accepts Hagee's endorsement but rejects his views only insofar as they might be anti-Catholic.

Hillary addresses the resignation of Samantha Power and her comments about Obama's withdrawal plan, tying them to NAFTA-gate...

Well I think Sen. Obama did the right thing, but I think it’s important to look at what she and his other advisors say behind closed doors, particularly when they’re talking to foreign governments and foreign press. It raises disturbing questions about what the real planning and policy positions inside the Obama campaign happen to be.

"Particularly when they're talking to foreign governments and press." So Hillary, in seeking to tie Power's Iraq comments to NAFTA, is claiming, in effect, that the Obama camp tells Americans one thing and foreigners another, right?

The skirmishing over Samantha Power continued on an Obama campaign conference call moments ago, with the action shifting over to this recent interview with Power about Obama's commitment to withdrawing from Iraq.

In that interview, Power said the following about Obama's future approach to withdrawal from Iraq: "He will, of course, not rely on some plan that he’s crafted as a presidential candidate or a U.S. Senator." As Ben Smith notes, she seemed to be expressing "a lack of confidence that Obama will be able to carry through" his withdrawal plan.

Asked about the comments on the call, Plouffe argued that Obama's commitment to pulling out of Iraq was "rock solid." He also pointed out that Retired General Jack Kean, who is close to Hillary, had recently characterized Hillary's approach to Iraq as follows:

"I have no doubts whatsoever that if she were president in January '09 she would not act irresponsibly and issue orders to conduct an immediate withdrawal from Iraq, regardless of the consequences, and squander the gains that have been made."

The parallel isn't perfect, but Plouffe's push-back nonetheless seems fair here -- the larger point is that both candidates, for obvious reasons, want to preserve some wiggle room for themselves on Iraq.

Separately, it's worth noting that the Obama camp was mostly on defense on the call, suggesting that the 3 A.M ad and Hillary's continued bludgeoning of Obama for his alleged lack of "commander in chief" cred has left the Obama camp scrambling to turn the narrative around.

Plouffe did go on offense on her tax returns, blasting her as "one of the most secretive pols in America today." But it's hard to imagine that this sort of thing will be enough to parry the current Clinton assault, which isn't showing any signs of letting up.

Then again, big victories in Wyoming and Mississippi could abruptly change the story-line, and beyone that, Obama's pledge delegate lead may well prove insurmountable, in which case whatever damage Obama takes from Hillary's "commander in chief" assault will ultimately prove inconsequential.

I don't know a darn thing about Philadelphia politics, but this seems pretty interesting.

With the stakes having multiplied around the Pennsylvania contest in April, it seems that a recent decision by Barack Obama to endorse in the Philly mayor's race could have repercussions in this state's primary.

In last year's Philly race, Obama endorsed Rep. Chaka Fattah, who lost that race to current Philly Mayor Michael Nutter. As a result, as Philly blogger Will Bunch explains, Nutter endorsed Hillary some time ago, on the theory that the enemy of your enemy is your friend.

Fast forward to today: Bill is in Philly, trying to round up the support of local ward leaders for Hillary. Apparently genuflecting before these ward leaders is critical in machine-town Philly, and having the support of the mayor is evidently very helpful in winning them over.

Bottom line: Obama's endorsement in last year's mayor's race could conceivably have a limited impact in Pennsylvania. Or so we hear from the experts, such as Philly-based Atrios, who puts it this way: "I highly doubt Obama ever imagined his courtesy endorsement of Chaka Fattah in the mayoral race would end up being such an important misstep."

Here's her statement, just sent out by the campaign:

“With deep regret, I am resigning from my role as an advisor the Obama campaign effective today. Last Monday, I made inexcusable remarks that are at marked variance from my oft-stated admiration for Senator Clinton and from the spirit, tenor, and purpose of the Obama campaign. And I extend my deepest apologies to Senator Clinton, Senator Obama, and the remarkable team I have worked with over these long 14 months."

In an interview with The Scotsman, Power called Hillary a "monster" and said other less-than-flattering things about her. Despite her prompt apology yesterday, the Hillary camp demanded her resignation this morning.

Less than two hours later, she's out.

Late Update: As David Kurtz says, it's worth noting that Power is a very significant player in the Obama universe -- his leading foreign policy guru and someone who's been close to him for some time. So this isn't like the resignation of that Hillary county volunteer who spread the Obama Muslim smear email or the stepping-down of that Obama precinct captain who spread the anti-Hillary lit.

Rather, Obama is losing a key adviser and very visible advocate on foreign policy at a time when national security is front and center in the Dem primary -- an outcome that helps explain why the Hillary camp pushed so hard for her ouster.

Late Late Update: I used the word "svengali" to describe Power when I meant "guru." Words cannot express how sorry I am for this horrible insult. As a result, I am now resigning from this post and deeply regret any damage I did to it.

The first public poll is out for this Tuesday's primary in Mississippi, a state where Barack Obama is favored to win.

The American Research Group poll puts Obama way at 58% support, against Hillary Clinton's 34%. Granted, ARG's record for primaries this cycle has been spotty. Nevertheless, it would be pretty hard to get it totally wrong on a margin this big.

A new pair of Rasmussen polls test how Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama might perform against each other if new elections are called for the Michigan and Florida Democratic primaries:

Florida
Clinton 55%
Obama 39%

Michigan
Clinton 41%
Obama 41%

Expect these mulligan primaries to be seriously contested, assuming they happen in some form.

On a conference call just now, Hillary advisers and surrogates called on Obama to fire senior foreign policy adviser Samantha Power for calling Hillary a "monster."

"Personal attacks are not the way to convince voters that you're capable of being president of the United States," New York Rep. Nita Lowey, a key Hillary surrogate, said. "We're calling on Senator Obama to make it very clear that Samantha Power should not be part of this campaign."

"It's really a very important test for Obama," Lowey said, adding that whether or not he fired Power was a "test of character."

Rep. Gregory Meeks, an African American Hillary supporter, reiterated the call for Power's firing, saying that the only appropriate way for Obama to proceed is "Senator Obama saying that this person can no longer be associated with his campaign."

Hillary spokesman Howard Wolfson added a few more twists of the knife, suggesting that Obama's handling of the Power affair would demonstrate the "kind of leadership" Obama was prepared to show. Power has already apologized for the comment.

This is some serious hardball -- it's obviously all about trying to tarnish Obama's high-mindedness. More in a bit.

Late Update: Power resigns.

A key Hillary backer has joined in on floating the idea of a joint ticket between the two Democratic candidates. In a National Journal On Air interview, Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell said it would be important for party unity to have the eventual winner offer the running-mate spot to the losing candidate.

"I do - and that doesn't mean the loser has to accept," Rendell said. "But I think it's important that it be offered, and if the loser doesn't accept, I think the loser can say why. But no, I think that would be very, very important."

Rendell also said he would strongly encourage the loser to accept it: "I mean, I think you've got to do it."

Barack Obama foreign policy adviser Samantha Power has apologized for calling Hillary Clinton a "monster" in an interview. "These comments do not reflect my feelings about Sen. Clinton, whose leadership and public service I have long admired," Power said in a statement.

"It is wrong for anyone to pursue this campaign in such negative and personal terms," she added. "I apologize to Senator Clinton and to Senator Obama, who has made very clear that these kinds of expressions should have no place in American politics."

In an interview published last night in U.S News, Hillary Clinton stated her opposition to any new caucuses in Michigan or Florida — a form of election where on-the-ground organization has benefitted Barack Obama.

"I would not accept a caucus. I think that would be a great disservice to the 2 million people who turned out and voted," Hillary said. "I think that they want their votes counted. And you know a lot of people would be disenfranchised because of the timing and whatever the particular rules were."

Hillary also stated her opposition to "any do-over or any kind of a second run in Florida."

The interview was conducted on Wednesday, a day before the Michigan Democrats entered into negotiations with the national party, reportedly with caucuses as a likely compromise. It was also before Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL), a Hillary backer, started reaching out to Howard Dean about a new primary in Florida if the DNC would pay for it.

From the passions-are-running-high deparment comes this report from The Scotsman:

HILLARY Clinton has been branded a "monster" by one of Barack Obama's top advisers, as the gloves come off in the race to win the Democrat nomination.

In an unguarded moment during an interview with The Scotsman, Samantha Power, his key foreign policy aide, let slip the camp's true feelings about the former First Lady....

Ms Power told The Scotsman Mrs Clinton was stopping at nothing to try to seize the lead from Mr Obama.

"We f***** up in Ohio," she admitted. "In Ohio, they are obsessed and Hillary is going to town on it, because she knows Ohio's the only place they can win.

"She is a monster, too -- that is off the record -- she is stooping to anything," Ms Power said, hastily trying to withdraw her remark.

The rest here.

Howard Dean told Florida Senator Bill Nelson in a private conversation today that he wouldn't agree to funding a revote in the state, despite the Senator' demand today that the DNC fund a rerun of the Florida contest, I'm told by a DNC source.

Dean's reiterated opposition suggests that calls for a revote face major institutional hurdles -- meaning that it's anyone's guess what's going to happen with the Florida delegation, which could prove pivotal to Hillary's hopes.

Nelson, a major Hillary supporter, said today that a revote might be the only way to get Florida's voters heard, a declaration that was taken by Dem party insiders as a sign that the Hillary camp is moving towards calling for a revote and is floating that message through him.

The major sticking point as to whether there will be a revote is who will pay for it. Dem party sources point out that the Florida state party could raise unlimited soft money to fund the revote, and Dean reiterated this option to Sen. Nelson during their conversation, so maybe Nelson and the state party will pursue this course and a revote will take place in some form.

Dean publicly stated his opposition to funding it earlier today, but the fact that he privately reiterated it to Nelson is significant because it suggests that he isn't quietly signaling any wiggle room on the question.

As Nico Pitney reports, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), a Catholic, denounced televangelist John Hagee during a blogger conference call today, saying that Hagee's harangues against the Catholic Church (among other things) are "outside the circle of civilized debate in our democracy."

When a blogger on the call asked about Hagee, Pelosi rejected him out of hand and seemed convinced that "it won't be long" before McCain rejected Hagee too.

It had to be pointed out to her that McCain, in fact, had sought out Hagee's endorsement. She seemed genuinely surprised by that, said that she "certainly" thinks that McCain should reject it, and then added "I can't imagine that he wouldn't reject it."

Surrounded by retired military leaders at an event today, Hillary continued with her strategy of spotlighting McCain's national security credentials as a way to argue that she's the Dem who can beat him in November:

“I think that since we now know Sen. McCain will be the nominee for the Republican Party, national security will be front and center in this election. We all know that. And I think it’s imperative that each of us be able to demonstrate we can cross the commander-in-chief threshold,” the New York senator told reporters crowded into an infant’s bedroom-sized hotel conference room in Washington.

“I believe that I’ve done that. Certainly, Sen. McCain has done that and you’ll have to ask Sen. Obama with respect to his candidacy,” she said.

Calling McCain, the presumptive GOP nominee a good friend and a “distinguished man with a great history of service to our country,” Clinton said, “Both of us will be on that stage having crossed that threshold."

The other day, Hillary sparked a bunch of criticism by arguing that she and McCain would put forth a "lifetime of experience." People pointed out that this was tailor made for political ads against Obama in a general election.

But this seems to go farther -- here she's arguing that he's crossed the threshold to be president in a category that she says is crucial in our next leader.

Hillary supporters privately defend this sort of thing by pointing out that she's never explicitly said that Obama wouldn't be an able commander-in-chief, though this seems to sidle up to that.

Either way, if your strategy is to highlight McCain's commander-in-chief credentials in order to suggest that they should make Dems nervous about Obama's chances against him, then you have to, you know, highlight McCain's commander-in-chief credentials.

But pumping up McCain to this extent risks provoking a backlash from rank-and-file Dems. The question I have is whether Obama will be able to capitalize on this, perhaps by using it to further his efforts to tie Hillary to McCain and to present himself as the only real candidate capable of drawing a clear contrast with him.

In a possible sign of trouble for the GOP, the National Republican Congressional Committee has poured more than $1 million into this Saturday's special election for the vacant seat of former Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-IL), who resigned last year.

Democratic candidate Bill Foster, a businessman and physicist, has received the active backing of Barack Obama, who in the midst of the presidential campaign cut an ad just for him. Meanwhile, Hastert led the GOP establishment in giving their early backing to dairy businessman and big-time GOP donor Jim Oberweis, who previously ran three unsuccessful self-financed campaigns, losing the Republican primaries for Senate in 2002 and 2004, and for governor in 2006.

Despite being a historically Republican district that voted 55% for President Bush in 2004, a new SurveyUSA poll shows Foster ahead of Oberweis 52%-47%.

The cash-strapped National Republican Congressional Committee has been forced to invest over $1.2 million, dumping $800,000 into the race last Friday alone. The Democratic Congressional Committee has also thrown over $1 million into this election, according to the latest FEC filings.

On an Obama campaign conference call just now, Obama advisers previewed a two-prong attack that they will be making with increasing intensity in the days ahead, tying Hillary more tightly to John McCain while simultaneously broadening their efforts to undercut Hillary's claim to foreign policy seasoning.

His aides repeatedly argued that Hillary's criticism of Obama is virtually identical to McCain's arguments, and Obama foreign policy adviser Susan Rice made what sounded to our ears like the most elaborate case against her claim to experience yet.

As first lady, Rice argued, "you are not the person asked by the U.S. government to deliver tough messages or apply pressure. You're not the person who's responsible for the loss of life. You're not the person who has to make the sometimes recalcitrant bureaucracy deliver in the national interest."

Anyway, these are the sorts of arguments we'll be hearing amplified in the days ahead. Both sides have staked out their cases, and we'll see which one carries the day.

In an extraordinary haul, the Obama campaign confirms that it raised an astonishing $55 million in February.

More than $45 million of it was raised online.

Woah.

Remember, when the Hillary campaign announced they'd raised in the neighborhood of $36 million for the month, the Obama camp played it close to the vest, saying only that they'd raised "considerably more." They held off on releasing the figures until now -- after the March 4th voting -- which prompted speculation that they were hoping to release the numbers to either shift the story away from Hillary's victories or put a final nail in the Hillary campaign's coffin had she not had a good showing.

Whatever their reasons for holding off until now, it's an extraordinary pull.

Late Update Some more stats from the campaign:

* Contributors: 727,972

* First Time Contributors: 385,101

* Total Contributors – Campaign to Date: 1,069,333

Online Fundraising:

* More than $45 million raised online in February

* More than 90% of online donations were $100 or less

* More than 50% of online donations were $25 or less

* More than 75% of online donors in February were first-time online donors

* More than a third of those new online donors in February went on to engage in volunteer activity on My.BarackObama.com (planning their own offline events, making phone calls from home, joining local grassroots volunteer groups)

SurveyUSA has a new set of polls out, testing Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in all 50 states. The bottom line: Both candidates would narrowly win the Electoral College, but in very different ways.

Obama vs. McCain:

Hillary vs. McCain:

So which Democrat is the more electable option?

After crunching the numbers from these quite dissimilar maps, one finds that Obama would beat McCain 278-260, while Hillary would win by a nearly identical 276-262.

Think about that.

Late Update: The final revisions have Obama winning two of Nebraska's three House districts, but still losing statewide. With Nebraska's electoral system splitting the electoral votes by district, this changes the tally to 280 votes for Obama, to 258 for McCain.

This is interesting: Although the Clinton camp's official position is that they oppose a revote in Florida, a top Hillary supporter in the state just expressed support for the idea and confirmed he's pressuring the DNC to pay for it.

Senator Bill Nelson, on MSNBC a few moments ago, said:

"The Democrats in Florida want their votes counted under the principle of one person, one vote. And we're a little sensitive about our votes not being counted. And so, if the only way to do that is to do it over, then I would support that."

Nelson -- who'd previously said the original Jan. 29 primary was sufficient -- said he's opposed to the idea of Florida taxpayers picking up the tab for a new election. But interestingly, he revealed that he was pressing DNC chair Howard Dean to stage and pay for the revote:

"I have written to Howard Dean today to say, if you're not going to seat the Florida delegation, then pay for another election, and let's get the party unified, and let's get Florida and Michigan seated," Nelson said, adding that if the DNC doesn't get this resolved it faces a “train wreck.”

Party insiders take Nelson's declaration as a sign that the Hillary campaign is moving towards tacit -- and perhaps overt -- support for the idea, and perhaps is floating it through surrogates.

Separately, on the conference call today, Hillary spokesperson Howard Wolfson for the first time signaled an openness for a revote, though he didn't go nearly as far as Nelson did.

Late Update: Here's the video:

A new Rasmussen poll from Pennsylvania shows that Hillary Clinton has definitely enjoyed a bounce in the wake of her March 4 wins. Here are the numbers, compared to last week's release:

Clinton 52% (+6)
Obama 37% (-5)

The pollster's analysis also indicates that the "3 a.m." ad might have had an effect in moving support over to Hillary.

"Most Likely Democratic Primary voters have either seen the ad or have heard about it," the memo says. "Forty-eight percent (48%) of Likely Democratic Primary voters say that if such a call came, they’d want Clinton in the White House to answer it. Thirty percent (30%) would rather see Obama while 15% of these Democratic voters would prefer the Republican nominee, John McCain, to answer the call."

Hillary spokesperson Howard Wolfson, on a conference call with reporters just now, drew an intriguing comparison between Obama and a somewhat-forgotten figure who is still deeply hated by Dems...

"When Senator Obama was confronted with questions over whether he was ready to be Commander-in-Chief and steward of the economy, he chose not to address those questions, but to attack Senator Clinton. I for one do not belive that imitating Ken Starr is the way to win a Democratic primary election for president."

Wolfson is referring to oblique references to Whitewater and other past Clinton stories that the Obama camp has made lately -- attacks Wolfson is trying to discredit by associating them with Starr's panty-sniffing inquisition.

That episode, of course, is a nightmare that's lodged deeply in the collective memory of Dem primary voters, and Ken Starr himself is perhaps almost as reviled by Dems as Arch Demon Karl Rove. Talk about throwing down the gauntlet.

Late Update: It's also worth asking whether this gambit is about reinforcing Hillary's bond with female voters by invoking Hillary's severe public humiliation at the hands of her husband and a prurient GOP and media.

Late Late Update: Obama spokesperson Bill Burton responds:

“It is absurd that after weeks of badgering the media to ‘vet’ Senator Obama, the Clinton campaign believes that they should be held to an entirely different standard. We don’t believe that expecting candidates for the presidency to disclose their tax returns somehow constitutes Ken Starr-tactics, but the kind of transparency and accountability that Americans are looking for and that’s been missing in Washington for far too long. And if Senator Clinton doesn’t think that the Republicans will ask these very same questions, then she’s not as ready to go toe-to-toe with John McCain as she claims.”

Hillary Clinton has a new radio in Wyoming, which will hold caucuses this weekend. The ad features a woman talking about her son who has a heart condition, and how he's benefitted from the Children's Health Insurance Program that Hillary has championed.

"I've met her, I've read her healthcare plan," the woman says. "I remember walking up to her and saying, 'I would feel a lot more safe if you were president, than I have in many, many years."

The reference to feeling "safe" can be interpreted two ways. It can refer to the health plan itself, or it can be taken as a nod and a wink to the security-mom pitch of the "3 a.m." ad that was run in Ohio and Texas.

To listen to the ad, click here.

We keep hearing -- from Tom Brokaw, and today, from Obama's Missouri co-chair -- that the Obama campaign has a secret bloc of 50 super-delegates that will suddenly reveal that they're all jumping to Obama en masse.

But the story is bogus, says the Obama camp.

Obama spokesperson Bill Burton emails us:

This is just a rumor. There is no secret stash of superdelegates that we are sitting on waiting to roll out.

In case you were wondering.

We previously told you about the American Leadership Project, the pro-Hillary 527 running ads in Texas and Ohio. Their first FEC report is in, and it shows just how much they spent to help Hillary win the Texas primary — indeed, it looks like the Ohio race was just a side project by comparison.

The filing shows the ALP spending a full $800,000 in Texas, with only about $31,000 listed in this report for spending in Ohio. The major source of funding was the AFSCME union, which kicked in a cool $1 million, making up the vast majority of their $1,161,485 total contributions.

A new SurveyUSA poll, conducted for Roll Call, shows that the usually-Republican Illinois district of former Speaker Dennis Hastert may well switch to the Democrats in this Saturday's special election.

The poll showed Democratic candidate Bill Foster, a businessman and scientist, ahead of Republican dairy magnate Jim Oberweis by a 52%-47% margin.

The district voted 55%-44% for President Bush in 2004, but Foster has been helped by such diverse factors as Oberweis' past failed campaigns for governor and senator, the endorsement of the conservative Chicago Tribune, and this ad starring Barack Obama:

A new SurveyUSA poll, the first national poll conducted entirely after her wins on Tuesday, shows Hillary doing well nationally against John McCain.

Hillary narrowly edges McCain at 48% to his 46%. Barack Obama ties McCain at 46%-46%. While the differences between the two matches are not statistically significant, at the very least it can give the Hillary campaign justification in saying they now run just as strong against McCain as Obama does, if not better.

Congressman Lacy Clay (D-MO), a Barack Obama supporter, has told the Columbia Missourian that the Obama campaign will be rolling out the support of about 50 previously uncommitted super-delegates.

Tom Brokaw was floating the same report earlier this week, but the Obama campaign denied it. If it somehow turned out to be accurate — rather than simply being Clay repeating what he's heard — it would put Obama ahead of Hillary Clinton's endorsements from super-delegates. "She will not make up those numbers," said Clay. "This race is over."