In an amazing upset, the Democrats have won the special election for the House seat of former Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-IL), a district that has long been in Republican hands and voted 55%-44% for President Bush in 2004.

With 99% reporting, Democrat Bill Foster, a physicist and businessman, leads Republican businessman and perennial candidate Jim Oberweis by 52%-48%, and has been projected the winner by the Associated Press.

Prediction: The Obama campaign will shop this around to uncommitted super-delegates, as evidence that they can expand the electoral playing field. One thing that helped Foster greatly was a well-organized get out the vote machine that the state party had organized to beef up Obama's totals in the Super Tuesday primary, and Obama himself took the time to cut an ad for Foster's campaign.

And at the very least, Obama can probably count on the support of one particular super-delegate: Congressman-Elect Bill Foster (D-IL).

Bill Clinton is pushing the idea of a Hillary-Obama ticket, but Obama isn't ready to play along:

Obama was asked by a television reporter, "Can you ever see yourself on the same ticket as Sen. Clinton?"

And the freshman Illinois senator replied: "Well, you know, I think it’s premature. You won’t see me as a vice presidential candidate -- you know, I’m running for president. We have won twice as many states as Senator Clinton, and have a higher popular vote, and I think we can maintain our delegate count."

"You won’t see me as a vice presidential candidate," Obama says. Sounds pretty definitive.

Has anyone asked Hillary whether she's open to the idea of being Obama's veep?

CNN and NBC call Wyoming for Obama. With 91% reporting, it's 58%-41%.

CNN's estimate has it that seven delegates go to Obama, and four to Hillary, with one left. So what's outstanding is whether Obama has a net gain over her of two delegates, or four.

More soon.

Late Update: On a conference call with reporters, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe argued that tonight's results put Hillary in a deeper hole.

He noted that given tonight's results, Hillary has to win 63% of the remaining pledged delegates, which "would mean getting 68% or 70% of the vote everywhere."

"We're getting down the field," Plouffe said.

Plouffe also made some of his most aggressive comments yet about Hillary's assault on Obama, saying outright that she has chosen a "scorched earth" strategy designed to "destroy Senator Obama in some way" in order to get the super-delegates to see him as un-electable and hence support her.

Now Bill Clinton is saying it. Here he is, floating the idea of a joint Hillary-Obama ticket at a town-hall meeting today in Mississippi:

"She said yesterday and she said the day after her big wins in Texas and Ohio and Rhode Island that she was very open to that and I think she answered explicitly yes yesterday," Clinton began, referring to Hillary's own answers on the topic in recent days.

"I know that she has always been open to it, because she believes that if you can unite the energy and the new people that he’s brought in and the people in these vast swaths of small town and rural America that she’s carried overwhelmingly, if you had those two things together she thinks it’d be hard to beat. I mean you look at the, you look at the, you look at the map of Texas and the map in Ohio. And the map in Missouri or -- well Arkansas’s not a good case because they know her and she won every place there.

"But you look at most of these places, he would win the urban areas and the upscale voters, and she wins the traditional rural areas that we lost when President Reagan was president. If you put those two things together, you’d have an almost unstoppable force."

Via the Page. Note the extent to which he volunteered her thinking on this. This report suggests that he offered this in an answer to a question. But Hillary floated this yesterday, and, now, Bill today -- and it's hard to imagine that both Clintons would be talking this up in tandem by accident.

Separately, Newsweek's poll today finds that 69% of Dems support the idea.

Late Update: Obama himself rejected the possibility that he'd serve as veep:

Obama was asked by a television reporter, "Can you ever see yourself on the same ticket as Sen. Clinton?"

And the freshman Illinois senator replied: "Well, you know, I think it’s premature. You won’t see me as a vice presidential candidate -- you know, I’m running for president. We have won twice as many states as Senator Clinton, and have a higher popular vote, and I think we can maintain our delegate count."

It turns out that one of the kids who was "safe and asleep" in Hillary's controversial red phone ad would prefer that Barack Obama answer that 3 A.M. phone call in the White House.

A new report from King5, an NBC affiliate in Washington State, says that the first sleeping girl shown in the ad is a young local resident named Casey Knowles. King5 adds that the footage of her asleep is eight-year-old stock footage -- and that she turns voting age next month.

And according to the report, she is supporting Obama...

"I think it would be really wonderful if me and Barack Obama could get together and make a nice counter ad," Knowles said.

One imagines that this just might happen.

Casey would, however, prefer that Hillary, rather than John McCain, answer that 3 A.M. call. She tells King5.com that she'll vote for Hillary in the general should she win the nomination.

Check out this headline on the front page of the CNN politics section:

So who is this "fellow legislator" who says Obama isn't as bold as his rhetoric suggests? If you click through to the article, you discover that it's Dan Cronin -- a Republican. Yet there's no indication in the hed that this is a partisan attack.

And as a special bonus, the bogus hed is packaged with that photo of Obama looking all glum and caught out. Just Godawful. Kind of funny to think that someone actually signed off on this.

Special thanks to TPM Reader PW for sending this one in.

Here's another key number buried in the new Newsweek poll: It shows that Dems are pretty much evenly split on whether the super-delegates should back the candidate who wins the pledged delegate count and/or popular vote or whether they should back the candidate of their choice...

Should neither Clinton nor Obama secure enough delegates to win the nomination (a scenario that looks increasingly likely), 43 percent of Democrats said they would prefer that the candidate trailing in the delegate count concede the nomination, while 42 percent think superdelegates should choose the nominee.

Should the ball end up in the superdelegates' court, most respondents (42 percent) think they should choose the best-qualified nominee in their judgment, while 38 percent believe they should choose the person with the popular vote lead.

We haven't seen this polled anywhere else; if anyone else has, please let us know.

My guess is that should Obama win the pledged del count and especially also the popular vote, all the media attention given to it would shift these numbers significantly in his favor.

Nonetheless, these numbers suggest the possibility that the war over what the super dels do could amount to yet another bruising political battle and that things could get very, very murky and ugly at the end.

From Newsweek:

Sen. Hillary Clinton's primary victories in Texas, Ohio and Rhode Island have revived her near-dead campaign and brought her into a statistical dead heat with Sen. Barack Obama among registered Democrats and Democratic leaners, according to a new national NEWSWEEK Poll...

Obama is the favored nominee among 45 percent of Democrats, compared with 44 percent for Clinton, according to the poll, which was based on telephone interviews with 1,215 registered voters March 5-6.

The controversial 3 A.M. ad may have helped, Newsweek sez, but the poll also suggests that it's unclear how much the "commander in chief threshold" that Hillary keeps talking about will matter in the long run...

[The poll] suggested that Clinton's ominous "3 a.m. phone call" ad benefited her campaign. Almost half (45 percent) of Democrats said they would trust Clinton to answer the red phone in the wee hours, while only a third felt that way about Obama. Similarly, on the issue of national security, almost half (47 percent) of the Democratic base said that they trust Clinton to protect the country; only a third feel the same about Obama.

But it's not clear how much these sentiments will matter at the ballot box: just 4 percent of Democrats overall, and 4 percent of Clinton's supporters, name terrorism as their top issue.

And the poll also contains a key stat for Obama: She is still far more polarizing than he. Forty percent of registered voters view her unfavorably, while 35% have that view of McCain and only 28 percent view Obama unfavorably.

After a year of arguments, lawsuits and an unauthorized primary, a deal may finally be close at hand for a do-over primary in Florida.

The details have yet to be worked out precisely, according to Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL), but it would involve a mail-in vote administered by the state party. "My job is clear," Nelson told Newsweek. "It's to stand up for the right of Floridians to vote as intended."

But here's the catch: The millions of dollars necessary to pay for this would have to be provided through unlimited soft-money contributions to the state party. That's right — this would be a special election funded by special interests.

Meanwhile, Sen. Carl Levin (D-MI) has announced his firm opposition to a mulligan primary in his state.

On the trail today in Wyoming, Obama responded to the revelation that top foreign policy adviser Samantha Power had suggested that he might not rely on his campaign pledges when crafting a withdrawal plan as president.

From a transcript of Obama's remarks emailed out by the campaign...

She was quoted either this morning or last night in Mississippi because one of my advisors had said that in a interview overseas that well Senator Obama would not...he has given a time frame for withdrawal, but obviously it would be subject to decisions and the situation at the time.

And so, Senator Clinton used this to try to imply that I wasn’t serious about bringing this war to an end. I just have to mention this because I don’t want anybody here to be confused.

Power didn't merely say in the interview that Obama's withdrawal would be "subject to decisions and the situation at the time." She also said: "He will, of course, not rely on some plan that he’s crafted as a presidential candidate or a U.S. Senator."

Obama also suggested that her initial support for the war should undermine the credibility of her criticism of him on it: "I don’t want to play politics on this issue because she doesn’t have standing to question my position on this issue."

Presuming that Hillary will continue to hit Obama for his alleged lack of commander in chief cred, the question in the days ahead will be whether Obama can effectively counter the assault by pointing to her lack of real live commander-in-chief experience and to her failure of judgment in supporting the war. We'll see if it works.

Fuller transcript after the jump.

Read more »

The Scotsman reporter who caused Samantha Power to lose her gig advising Obama speaks out, defends use of quotes even though Power said they were "off the record"...

Hillary spokesperson Howard Wolfson, on a conference call with reporters a few moments ago:

"The issue of who's best prepared to be commander-in-chief will continue to drive the discussion in this campaign because it is a critical one."

Translation: We've got a winner, we're gonna keep beating Obama's brains in with it, and if we get our way, that ain't gonna change anytime soon.

John McCain is now starting to inch away from the support of televangelist John Hagee -- known for his eager anticipation of Armageddon, plus his inflammatory comments against the Catholic Church and other groups -- now that the press has noticed the problem here.

"We've had a dignified campaign, and I repudiate any comments that are made, including Pastor Hagee's, if they are anti-Catholic or offensive to Catholics," McCain told the Associated Press. "I sent two of my children to Catholic school. I categorically reject and repudiate any statement that was made that was anti-Catholic, both in intent and nature."

McCain said he was responding to yesterday's criticism from Nancy Pelosi, describing Pelosi's censure of Hagee's views and McCain's association with Hagee as an "attack."

However, it still sounds like McCain accepts Hagee's endorsement but rejects his views only insofar as they might be anti-Catholic.

Hillary addresses the resignation of Samantha Power and her comments about Obama's withdrawal plan, tying them to NAFTA-gate...

Well I think Sen. Obama did the right thing, but I think it’s important to look at what she and his other advisors say behind closed doors, particularly when they’re talking to foreign governments and foreign press. It raises disturbing questions about what the real planning and policy positions inside the Obama campaign happen to be.

"Particularly when they're talking to foreign governments and press." So Hillary, in seeking to tie Power's Iraq comments to NAFTA, is claiming, in effect, that the Obama camp tells Americans one thing and foreigners another, right?

The skirmishing over Samantha Power continued on an Obama campaign conference call moments ago, with the action shifting over to this recent interview with Power about Obama's commitment to withdrawing from Iraq.

In that interview, Power said the following about Obama's future approach to withdrawal from Iraq: "He will, of course, not rely on some plan that he’s crafted as a presidential candidate or a U.S. Senator." As Ben Smith notes, she seemed to be expressing "a lack of confidence that Obama will be able to carry through" his withdrawal plan.

Asked about the comments on the call, Plouffe argued that Obama's commitment to pulling out of Iraq was "rock solid." He also pointed out that Retired General Jack Kean, who is close to Hillary, had recently characterized Hillary's approach to Iraq as follows:

"I have no doubts whatsoever that if she were president in January '09 she would not act irresponsibly and issue orders to conduct an immediate withdrawal from Iraq, regardless of the consequences, and squander the gains that have been made."

The parallel isn't perfect, but Plouffe's push-back nonetheless seems fair here -- the larger point is that both candidates, for obvious reasons, want to preserve some wiggle room for themselves on Iraq.

Separately, it's worth noting that the Obama camp was mostly on defense on the call, suggesting that the 3 A.M ad and Hillary's continued bludgeoning of Obama for his alleged lack of "commander in chief" cred has left the Obama camp scrambling to turn the narrative around.

Plouffe did go on offense on her tax returns, blasting her as "one of the most secretive pols in America today." But it's hard to imagine that this sort of thing will be enough to parry the current Clinton assault, which isn't showing any signs of letting up.

Then again, big victories in Wyoming and Mississippi could abruptly change the story-line, and beyone that, Obama's pledge delegate lead may well prove insurmountable, in which case whatever damage Obama takes from Hillary's "commander in chief" assault will ultimately prove inconsequential.

I don't know a darn thing about Philadelphia politics, but this seems pretty interesting.

With the stakes having multiplied around the Pennsylvania contest in April, it seems that a recent decision by Barack Obama to endorse in the Philly mayor's race could have repercussions in this state's primary.

In last year's Philly race, Obama endorsed Rep. Chaka Fattah, who lost that race to current Philly Mayor Michael Nutter. As a result, as Philly blogger Will Bunch explains, Nutter endorsed Hillary some time ago, on the theory that the enemy of your enemy is your friend.

Fast forward to today: Bill is in Philly, trying to round up the support of local ward leaders for Hillary. Apparently genuflecting before these ward leaders is critical in machine-town Philly, and having the support of the mayor is evidently very helpful in winning them over.

Bottom line: Obama's endorsement in last year's mayor's race could conceivably have a limited impact in Pennsylvania. Or so we hear from the experts, such as Philly-based Atrios, who puts it this way: "I highly doubt Obama ever imagined his courtesy endorsement of Chaka Fattah in the mayoral race would end up being such an important misstep."

Here's her statement, just sent out by the campaign:

“With deep regret, I am resigning from my role as an advisor the Obama campaign effective today. Last Monday, I made inexcusable remarks that are at marked variance from my oft-stated admiration for Senator Clinton and from the spirit, tenor, and purpose of the Obama campaign. And I extend my deepest apologies to Senator Clinton, Senator Obama, and the remarkable team I have worked with over these long 14 months."

In an interview with The Scotsman, Power called Hillary a "monster" and said other less-than-flattering things about her. Despite her prompt apology yesterday, the Hillary camp demanded her resignation this morning.

Less than two hours later, she's out.

Late Update: As David Kurtz says, it's worth noting that Power is a very significant player in the Obama universe -- his leading foreign policy guru and someone who's been close to him for some time. So this isn't like the resignation of that Hillary county volunteer who spread the Obama Muslim smear email or the stepping-down of that Obama precinct captain who spread the anti-Hillary lit.

Rather, Obama is losing a key adviser and very visible advocate on foreign policy at a time when national security is front and center in the Dem primary -- an outcome that helps explain why the Hillary camp pushed so hard for her ouster.

Late Late Update: I used the word "svengali" to describe Power when I meant "guru." Words cannot express how sorry I am for this horrible insult. As a result, I am now resigning from this post and deeply regret any damage I did to it.

The first public poll is out for this Tuesday's primary in Mississippi, a state where Barack Obama is favored to win.

The American Research Group poll puts Obama way at 58% support, against Hillary Clinton's 34%. Granted, ARG's record for primaries this cycle has been spotty. Nevertheless, it would be pretty hard to get it totally wrong on a margin this big.

A new pair of Rasmussen polls test how Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama might perform against each other if new elections are called for the Michigan and Florida Democratic primaries:

Florida
Clinton 55%
Obama 39%

Michigan
Clinton 41%
Obama 41%

Expect these mulligan primaries to be seriously contested, assuming they happen in some form.

On a conference call just now, Hillary advisers and surrogates called on Obama to fire senior foreign policy adviser Samantha Power for calling Hillary a "monster."

"Personal attacks are not the way to convince voters that you're capable of being president of the United States," New York Rep. Nita Lowey, a key Hillary surrogate, said. "We're calling on Senator Obama to make it very clear that Samantha Power should not be part of this campaign."

"It's really a very important test for Obama," Lowey said, adding that whether or not he fired Power was a "test of character."

Rep. Gregory Meeks, an African American Hillary supporter, reiterated the call for Power's firing, saying that the only appropriate way for Obama to proceed is "Senator Obama saying that this person can no longer be associated with his campaign."

Hillary spokesman Howard Wolfson added a few more twists of the knife, suggesting that Obama's handling of the Power affair would demonstrate the "kind of leadership" Obama was prepared to show. Power has already apologized for the comment.

This is some serious hardball -- it's obviously all about trying to tarnish Obama's high-mindedness. More in a bit.

Late Update: Power resigns.

A key Hillary backer has joined in on floating the idea of a joint ticket between the two Democratic candidates. In a National Journal On Air interview, Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell said it would be important for party unity to have the eventual winner offer the running-mate spot to the losing candidate.

"I do - and that doesn't mean the loser has to accept," Rendell said. "But I think it's important that it be offered, and if the loser doesn't accept, I think the loser can say why. But no, I think that would be very, very important."

Rendell also said he would strongly encourage the loser to accept it: "I mean, I think you've got to do it."

Barack Obama foreign policy adviser Samantha Power has apologized for calling Hillary Clinton a "monster" in an interview. "These comments do not reflect my feelings about Sen. Clinton, whose leadership and public service I have long admired," Power said in a statement.

"It is wrong for anyone to pursue this campaign in such negative and personal terms," she added. "I apologize to Senator Clinton and to Senator Obama, who has made very clear that these kinds of expressions should have no place in American politics."

In an interview published last night in U.S News, Hillary Clinton stated her opposition to any new caucuses in Michigan or Florida — a form of election where on-the-ground organization has benefitted Barack Obama.

"I would not accept a caucus. I think that would be a great disservice to the 2 million people who turned out and voted," Hillary said. "I think that they want their votes counted. And you know a lot of people would be disenfranchised because of the timing and whatever the particular rules were."

Hillary also stated her opposition to "any do-over or any kind of a second run in Florida."

The interview was conducted on Wednesday, a day before the Michigan Democrats entered into negotiations with the national party, reportedly with caucuses as a likely compromise. It was also before Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL), a Hillary backer, started reaching out to Howard Dean about a new primary in Florida if the DNC would pay for it.

From the passions-are-running-high deparment comes this report from The Scotsman:

HILLARY Clinton has been branded a "monster" by one of Barack Obama's top advisers, as the gloves come off in the race to win the Democrat nomination.

In an unguarded moment during an interview with The Scotsman, Samantha Power, his key foreign policy aide, let slip the camp's true feelings about the former First Lady....

Ms Power told The Scotsman Mrs Clinton was stopping at nothing to try to seize the lead from Mr Obama.

"We f***** up in Ohio," she admitted. "In Ohio, they are obsessed and Hillary is going to town on it, because she knows Ohio's the only place they can win.

"She is a monster, too -- that is off the record -- she is stooping to anything," Ms Power said, hastily trying to withdraw her remark.

The rest here.

Howard Dean told Florida Senator Bill Nelson in a private conversation today that he wouldn't agree to funding a revote in the state, despite the Senator' demand today that the DNC fund a rerun of the Florida contest, I'm told by a DNC source.

Dean's reiterated opposition suggests that calls for a revote face major institutional hurdles -- meaning that it's anyone's guess what's going to happen with the Florida delegation, which could prove pivotal to Hillary's hopes.

Nelson, a major Hillary supporter, said today that a revote might be the only way to get Florida's voters heard, a declaration that was taken by Dem party insiders as a sign that the Hillary camp is moving towards calling for a revote and is floating that message through him.

The major sticking point as to whether there will be a revote is who will pay for it. Dem party sources point out that the Florida state party could raise unlimited soft money to fund the revote, and Dean reiterated this option to Sen. Nelson during their conversation, so maybe Nelson and the state party will pursue this course and a revote will take place in some form.

Dean publicly stated his opposition to funding it earlier today, but the fact that he privately reiterated it to Nelson is significant because it suggests that he isn't quietly signaling any wiggle room on the question.

As Nico Pitney reports, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), a Catholic, denounced televangelist John Hagee during a blogger conference call today, saying that Hagee's harangues against the Catholic Church (among other things) are "outside the circle of civilized debate in our democracy."

When a blogger on the call asked about Hagee, Pelosi rejected him out of hand and seemed convinced that "it won't be long" before McCain rejected Hagee too.

It had to be pointed out to her that McCain, in fact, had sought out Hagee's endorsement. She seemed genuinely surprised by that, said that she "certainly" thinks that McCain should reject it, and then added "I can't imagine that he wouldn't reject it."

Surrounded by retired military leaders at an event today, Hillary continued with her strategy of spotlighting McCain's national security credentials as a way to argue that she's the Dem who can beat him in November:

“I think that since we now know Sen. McCain will be the nominee for the Republican Party, national security will be front and center in this election. We all know that. And I think it’s imperative that each of us be able to demonstrate we can cross the commander-in-chief threshold,” the New York senator told reporters crowded into an infant’s bedroom-sized hotel conference room in Washington.

“I believe that I’ve done that. Certainly, Sen. McCain has done that and you’ll have to ask Sen. Obama with respect to his candidacy,” she said.

Calling McCain, the presumptive GOP nominee a good friend and a “distinguished man with a great history of service to our country,” Clinton said, “Both of us will be on that stage having crossed that threshold."

The other day, Hillary sparked a bunch of criticism by arguing that she and McCain would put forth a "lifetime of experience." People pointed out that this was tailor made for political ads against Obama in a general election.

But this seems to go farther -- here she's arguing that he's crossed the threshold to be president in a category that she says is crucial in our next leader.

Hillary supporters privately defend this sort of thing by pointing out that she's never explicitly said that Obama wouldn't be an able commander-in-chief, though this seems to sidle up to that.

Either way, if your strategy is to highlight McCain's commander-in-chief credentials in order to suggest that they should make Dems nervous about Obama's chances against him, then you have to, you know, highlight McCain's commander-in-chief credentials.

But pumping up McCain to this extent risks provoking a backlash from rank-and-file Dems. The question I have is whether Obama will be able to capitalize on this, perhaps by using it to further his efforts to tie Hillary to McCain and to present himself as the only real candidate capable of drawing a clear contrast with him.

In a possible sign of trouble for the GOP, the National Republican Congressional Committee has poured more than $1 million into this Saturday's special election for the vacant seat of former Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-IL), who resigned last year.

Democratic candidate Bill Foster, a businessman and physicist, has received the active backing of Barack Obama, who in the midst of the presidential campaign cut an ad just for him. Meanwhile, Hastert led the GOP establishment in giving their early backing to dairy businessman and big-time GOP donor Jim Oberweis, who previously ran three unsuccessful self-financed campaigns, losing the Republican primaries for Senate in 2002 and 2004, and for governor in 2006.

Despite being a historically Republican district that voted 55% for President Bush in 2004, a new SurveyUSA poll shows Foster ahead of Oberweis 52%-47%.

The cash-strapped National Republican Congressional Committee has been forced to invest over $1.2 million, dumping $800,000 into the race last Friday alone. The Democratic Congressional Committee has also thrown over $1 million into this election, according to the latest FEC filings.

On an Obama campaign conference call just now, Obama advisers previewed a two-prong attack that they will be making with increasing intensity in the days ahead, tying Hillary more tightly to John McCain while simultaneously broadening their efforts to undercut Hillary's claim to foreign policy seasoning.

His aides repeatedly argued that Hillary's criticism of Obama is virtually identical to McCain's arguments, and Obama foreign policy adviser Susan Rice made what sounded to our ears like the most elaborate case against her claim to experience yet.

As first lady, Rice argued, "you are not the person asked by the U.S. government to deliver tough messages or apply pressure. You're not the person who's responsible for the loss of life. You're not the person who has to make the sometimes recalcitrant bureaucracy deliver in the national interest."

Anyway, these are the sorts of arguments we'll be hearing amplified in the days ahead. Both sides have staked out their cases, and we'll see which one carries the day.

In an extraordinary haul, the Obama campaign confirms that it raised an astonishing $55 million in February.

More than $45 million of it was raised online.

Woah.

Remember, when the Hillary campaign announced they'd raised in the neighborhood of $36 million for the month, the Obama camp played it close to the vest, saying only that they'd raised "considerably more." They held off on releasing the figures until now -- after the March 4th voting -- which prompted speculation that they were hoping to release the numbers to either shift the story away from Hillary's victories or put a final nail in the Hillary campaign's coffin had she not had a good showing.

Whatever their reasons for holding off until now, it's an extraordinary pull.

Late Update Some more stats from the campaign:

* Contributors: 727,972

* First Time Contributors: 385,101

* Total Contributors – Campaign to Date: 1,069,333

Online Fundraising:

* More than $45 million raised online in February

* More than 90% of online donations were $100 or less

* More than 50% of online donations were $25 or less

* More than 75% of online donors in February were first-time online donors

* More than a third of those new online donors in February went on to engage in volunteer activity on My.BarackObama.com (planning their own offline events, making phone calls from home, joining local grassroots volunteer groups)

SurveyUSA has a new set of polls out, testing Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in all 50 states. The bottom line: Both candidates would narrowly win the Electoral College, but in very different ways.

Obama vs. McCain:

Hillary vs. McCain:

So which Democrat is the more electable option?

After crunching the numbers from these quite dissimilar maps, one finds that Obama would beat McCain 278-260, while Hillary would win by a nearly identical 276-262.

Think about that.

Late Update: The final revisions have Obama winning two of Nebraska's three House districts, but still losing statewide. With Nebraska's electoral system splitting the electoral votes by district, this changes the tally to 280 votes for Obama, to 258 for McCain.

This is interesting: Although the Clinton camp's official position is that they oppose a revote in Florida, a top Hillary supporter in the state just expressed support for the idea and confirmed he's pressuring the DNC to pay for it.

Senator Bill Nelson, on MSNBC a few moments ago, said:

"The Democrats in Florida want their votes counted under the principle of one person, one vote. And we're a little sensitive about our votes not being counted. And so, if the only way to do that is to do it over, then I would support that."

Nelson -- who'd previously said the original Jan. 29 primary was sufficient -- said he's opposed to the idea of Florida taxpayers picking up the tab for a new election. But interestingly, he revealed that he was pressing DNC chair Howard Dean to stage and pay for the revote:

"I have written to Howard Dean today to say, if you're not going to seat the Florida delegation, then pay for another election, and let's get the party unified, and let's get Florida and Michigan seated," Nelson said, adding that if the DNC doesn't get this resolved it faces a “train wreck.”

Party insiders take Nelson's declaration as a sign that the Hillary campaign is moving towards tacit -- and perhaps overt -- support for the idea, and perhaps is floating it through surrogates.

Separately, on the conference call today, Hillary spokesperson Howard Wolfson for the first time signaled an openness for a revote, though he didn't go nearly as far as Nelson did.

Late Update: Here's the video:

A new Rasmussen poll from Pennsylvania shows that Hillary Clinton has definitely enjoyed a bounce in the wake of her March 4 wins. Here are the numbers, compared to last week's release:

Clinton 52% (+6)
Obama 37% (-5)

The pollster's analysis also indicates that the "3 a.m." ad might have had an effect in moving support over to Hillary.

"Most Likely Democratic Primary voters have either seen the ad or have heard about it," the memo says. "Forty-eight percent (48%) of Likely Democratic Primary voters say that if such a call came, they’d want Clinton in the White House to answer it. Thirty percent (30%) would rather see Obama while 15% of these Democratic voters would prefer the Republican nominee, John McCain, to answer the call."

Hillary spokesperson Howard Wolfson, on a conference call with reporters just now, drew an intriguing comparison between Obama and a somewhat-forgotten figure who is still deeply hated by Dems...

"When Senator Obama was confronted with questions over whether he was ready to be Commander-in-Chief and steward of the economy, he chose not to address those questions, but to attack Senator Clinton. I for one do not belive that imitating Ken Starr is the way to win a Democratic primary election for president."

Wolfson is referring to oblique references to Whitewater and other past Clinton stories that the Obama camp has made lately -- attacks Wolfson is trying to discredit by associating them with Starr's panty-sniffing inquisition.

That episode, of course, is a nightmare that's lodged deeply in the collective memory of Dem primary voters, and Ken Starr himself is perhaps almost as reviled by Dems as Arch Demon Karl Rove. Talk about throwing down the gauntlet.

Late Update: It's also worth asking whether this gambit is about reinforcing Hillary's bond with female voters by invoking Hillary's severe public humiliation at the hands of her husband and a prurient GOP and media.

Late Late Update: Obama spokesperson Bill Burton responds:

“It is absurd that after weeks of badgering the media to ‘vet’ Senator Obama, the Clinton campaign believes that they should be held to an entirely different standard. We don’t believe that expecting candidates for the presidency to disclose their tax returns somehow constitutes Ken Starr-tactics, but the kind of transparency and accountability that Americans are looking for and that’s been missing in Washington for far too long. And if Senator Clinton doesn’t think that the Republicans will ask these very same questions, then she’s not as ready to go toe-to-toe with John McCain as she claims.”

Hillary Clinton has a new radio in Wyoming, which will hold caucuses this weekend. The ad features a woman talking about her son who has a heart condition, and how he's benefitted from the Children's Health Insurance Program that Hillary has championed.

"I've met her, I've read her healthcare plan," the woman says. "I remember walking up to her and saying, 'I would feel a lot more safe if you were president, than I have in many, many years."

The reference to feeling "safe" can be interpreted two ways. It can refer to the health plan itself, or it can be taken as a nod and a wink to the security-mom pitch of the "3 a.m." ad that was run in Ohio and Texas.

To listen to the ad, click here.

We keep hearing -- from Tom Brokaw, and today, from Obama's Missouri co-chair -- that the Obama campaign has a secret bloc of 50 super-delegates that will suddenly reveal that they're all jumping to Obama en masse.

But the story is bogus, says the Obama camp.

Obama spokesperson Bill Burton emails us:

This is just a rumor. There is no secret stash of superdelegates that we are sitting on waiting to roll out.

In case you were wondering.

We previously told you about the American Leadership Project, the pro-Hillary 527 running ads in Texas and Ohio. Their first FEC report is in, and it shows just how much they spent to help Hillary win the Texas primary — indeed, it looks like the Ohio race was just a side project by comparison.

The filing shows the ALP spending a full $800,000 in Texas, with only about $31,000 listed in this report for spending in Ohio. The major source of funding was the AFSCME union, which kicked in a cool $1 million, making up the vast majority of their $1,161,485 total contributions.

A new SurveyUSA poll, conducted for Roll Call, shows that the usually-Republican Illinois district of former Speaker Dennis Hastert may well switch to the Democrats in this Saturday's special election.

The poll showed Democratic candidate Bill Foster, a businessman and scientist, ahead of Republican dairy magnate Jim Oberweis by a 52%-47% margin.

The district voted 55%-44% for President Bush in 2004, but Foster has been helped by such diverse factors as Oberweis' past failed campaigns for governor and senator, the endorsement of the conservative Chicago Tribune, and this ad starring Barack Obama:

A new SurveyUSA poll, the first national poll conducted entirely after her wins on Tuesday, shows Hillary doing well nationally against John McCain.

Hillary narrowly edges McCain at 48% to his 46%. Barack Obama ties McCain at 46%-46%. While the differences between the two matches are not statistically significant, at the very least it can give the Hillary campaign justification in saying they now run just as strong against McCain as Obama does, if not better.

Congressman Lacy Clay (D-MO), a Barack Obama supporter, has told the Columbia Missourian that the Obama campaign will be rolling out the support of about 50 previously uncommitted super-delegates.

Tom Brokaw was floating the same report earlier this week, but the Obama campaign denied it. If it somehow turned out to be accurate — rather than simply being Clay repeating what he's heard — it would put Obama ahead of Hillary Clinton's endorsements from super-delegates. "She will not make up those numbers," said Clay. "This race is over."

The NAFTA-Gate controversy has taken another turn, one that could potentially boomerang back on Hillary Clinton after initially damaging Barack Obama.

The Canadian Press — Canada's domestic equivalent of the AP — is reporting that the original source of the leak was Ian Brodie, chief of staff to Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper. And as it turns out, Brodie's original conversation with reporters focused much more on Hillary as the candidate whose people were reassuring Canada that the anti-trade rhetoric was all just campaign talk.

"He said someone from Clinton's campaign is telling the Embassy to take it with a grain of salt," said one participant in the conversation. The source added, "someone called us and told us not to worry."

Hillary's people were able to use NAFTA-Gate very effectively in questioning Obama's honesty in the Ohio and Texas campaigns, ultimately pulling off some decent wins. But if this thing doesn't die down, and the focus turns from Obama over to Hillary, they could very well see the story come back to bite them.

Late Update: It should be pointed out that the Hillary people adamantly denied this from the start. In contrast, the Obama campaign was much slower to respond — possibly explaining why he got the worst of it in terms of publicity.

Some new numbers from the Washington Post poll lend weight to Obama's claim of electability against John McCain, finding that he's besting the Arizona Senator in a national match-up among all voters by 12 points, 52%-40%.

The poll also finds Hillary beating McCain by six, 50%-44%.

The poll suggests that McCain is besting Obama on "commander in chief" questions, finding that more voters think McCain is the stronger leader, has better experience, has a better knowledge of world affairs, and would better handle Iraq and the war on terrorism. Hillary has argued that Obama will find herself bested on these fronts in a general election with McCain.

Still, the poll's current internals don't do match-ups on the same questions with Hillary, so it's impossible to compare the two Dems' performance against McCain on them.

What's more, the poll finds that voters think that "new direction and new ideas" is slightly more important than "strength and experience," potentially putting a crimp in Hillary's claims about the general. And it finds that Obama leads McCain by substantial margins in multiple other categories, such as personality and temperament, ethical standards and vision for the future.

Numbers here.

A lot of readers have wondered why the Texas caucuses have been so slow to report to the media. The answer: They're not reporting in great numbers anymore, and they don't actually have to.

Nonetheless, we might still have a decent estimate of the final result for you to consider.

Hector Nieto, spokesperson for the Texas Democratic Party, explained to Election Central that the caucuses elected delegates to the state Senatorial district conventions that will then elect delegates to the state convention, and weren't required to report to the state party headquarters. The results that have come in came from a voluntary system set up in order to help the media get an idea of what to expect the final delegate result to be.

On the assumption that the current results coming from all around the state represent a decent cross-section of the state as a whole, and that all the Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama district delegates show up to their conventions in their proper proportions, we can make an educated guess.

Give or take, Obama would get 37 delegates to Hillary's 30 delegates, netting Obama a +3 delegate advantage for the combined Texas prima-caucus. "This is believed to be a good sample of what's available throughout the state," Nieto said. "And if this trend continues, one could estimate that."

Bottom line: Hillary's overall gain for March 4, which had 370 total delegates up for grabs, will be about +8.

Gov. Charlie Crist (R-FL) seems to be backing away from a trial balloon that he would support a new Democratic primary in Florida — and he's joined by Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D) in standing firm on the January rogue primaries.

Crist and Granholm have put out a joint statement demanding that the Democratic and Republican National Committees seat delegates for both states. All of the Democratic delegates and half the Republican delegates were stripped from those states, because they broke the national parties' established rules for when the contests should have been held.

"The right to vote is at the very foundation of our democracy," the statement says. "This primary season, voters have turned out in record numbers to exercise that right, and it is reprehensible that anyone would seek to silence the voices of 5,163,271 Americans."

Without new contests in these two states, we might be looking at a situation where the Democratic nomination comes down to a fight in the Credentials Committee.

The full statement is available after the jump.

(Via Ben Smith)

Read more »

Some super-delegates, such as Donna Brazile, are suggesting that the time soon may be ripe to intervene in the Dem primary if it gets nastier, but the ultimate super-del -- Nancy Pelosi -- is warning against such a precipitous move.

In a conversation with reporters today, Pelosi said: "I think the electoral process has to work its way. There are still many voters unheard from yet, and I think that our candidates both have the capacity to inspire, to bring out a big vote that will hold us in good stead in November, and I think that now is not the time for anybody to weigh in."

Pelosi added that she was "never among those who believed this would be resolved by now."

The comments from Pelosi are significant, because they could persuade super-dels who might be thinking of swinging behind a candidate now to hold their fire.

Pelosi has also made it clear in the past that she doesn't believe that the super-dels will end up defying the will of the people at the end of the day.

A quick note: The above quotes come from CNN. We're told that Pelosi said some other stuff that's equally significant, or even more so. As soon as we can get a full transcript we'll bring you the rest.

So with Hillary's wins last night, where does the popular vote stand for the Democratic race? The bottom line is that Barack Obama still has an overall popular lead, albeit a very narrow one.

NBC has the crunched the numbers, and here's what they have:

DNC-Sanctioned Contests
Obama 12,920,961
Clinton 12,322,695

Including Florida
Obama 13,497,175
Clinton 13,193,681

Including Florida And Michigan
Clinton 13,521,832
Obama 13,497,175

Hillary takes a lead if both Florida and Michigan are included, but there is a caveat: Obama was not on the ballot in Michigan, and a lot of Obama supporters there cast their votes for "Uncommitted." None of those votes are included in his column here, which would theoretically put him ahead again.

In addition to the contests yet to be held, the vote totals are also subject to major changes if new, fully-binding elections are called in Florida and Michigan.

Today's Gallup tracking poll gives Hillary Clinton a four-point national leader over Barack Obama — the first time in several weeks that she's been able to claim that big a lead. Here are the numbers, compared to yesterday:

Clinton 48% (+3)
Obama 44% (-1)

Obama had been up 48%-43% two days ago, meaning there has been a potentially significant swing of about four or five percent over to Hillary in that short time.

These numbers don't include any polling from after her wins last night. The first such results will be include din tomorrow's release.

Obama campaign advisers are already making good on promises to confront Hillary much more aggressively on new fronts, hammering her on a conference call over her failure to release her tax returns.

And in the process, Obama senior adviser David Axelrod got off a pretty good line mocking Hillary's recent "change you can xerox" howler:

"There is no reason she cannot realease her 2006 returns. Talk about change you can Xerox. You can Xerox your tax returns."

Obama advisers, clearly signaling to supporters that they will take aggressive steps to contain whatever momentum Hillary has coming out of yesterday's wins, charged that her refusal to release the returns suggested that she would be less than forthcoming as president.

In response, Hillary spokesperson Howard Wolfson sought to shift the discussion back to the Rezko story, a tale the Hillary camp will be hitting on relentlessly in the weeks ahead. "Their tax returns since they left the White House will be made available on or around April 15," Wolfson said, speaking of the Clintons. "Instead of making false attacks, we urge Senator Obama to release all relevant financial and other information related to indicted political fixer Tony Rezko."

As Ben Smith notes, however, "neither campaign has produced any evidence that there's some particular, damning piece of information in the documents they're asking for."

On that conference call with reporters, Hillary pollster Mark Penn took a stab at predicting what future states Hillary might win.

And he left very little doubt about the Hillary camp's game plan from here on out -- keep hammering at the press to rake through Obama's past, and keep attacking Obama on national security and other fronts. Penn vowed that the continued attacks would bear fruit in unexpected states in the weeks ahead.

"Wyoming and Mississippi are in what I'd call the `challenging' category for us," Penn said. "Pennsylvania is a big opportunity for us."

"This fuller vetting process [of Obama by the press] I think will open up a number of other states," Penn continued. "I think there will be a number of other opportunities coming along through the rest of this process as a result of the vetting process going forward and the kinds of contrasts we drew quite strongly with Obama in the closing days" before last night's contests.

More "vetting" and more "contrast." Just in case you didn't know where this thing is going.

On a conference call with reporters just now, Hillary supporter Evan Bayh offered an intriguing description of the contest thus far:

"People have gotten through the initial job interviews. Now they're making a hiring decision."

Not sure how the millions and millions of voters in contests before yesterday would feel about having their elections described as mere "job interviews." Presumably they thought they were making "a hiring decision" too, right?

This morning we gave you the latest delegate hard count from NBC, which gave Hillary Clinton a 46-34 delegate edge on the Texas primary, with 46 delegates yet to be allocated. As it turns out, the Texas Secretary of State site has a more up-to-date count based on the totals in the state Senate districts, and Hillary's edge is much closer in their numbers.

With all 126 delegates estimated by the state's site, it's 65 for Hillary to 61 for Obama — a +4 edge for Hillary compared to the ongoing +12 estimate that NBC currently has, assuming the Texas state site's calculations are accurate.

In Rhode Island, Hillary won a 13-8 advantage, while Obama got a 9-6 win in Vermont. NBC currently has Ohio at 73-62 for Hillary, with six delegates left to be assigned. That gives Hillary a net advantage of +17 for the night, without the Texas caucus results factored in. Assuming Obama wins the caucus, this would trim Hillary's lead slightly, potentially leaving her around +10.

Late Update: Using the Ohio Secretary of State's district-by-district numbers, combined with this delegate calculator at BuckeyeStateBlog, Hillary Clinton ends up with 74 delegates to Barack Obama's 65 delegates, with two more delegates up in the air. That would put Hillary at +9 in Ohio, down from NBC's current +11, and +15 overall before the Texas caucus results are known.

Speaking to reporters on his campaign plane, Obama makes it very clear that he will be taking on Hillary's claim to superior foreign policy experience and readiness a good deal more aggressively in the weeks ahead:

“Over the coming weeks we will join her in that argument. Was she negotiating treaties? Was she handling crisis? The answer is ‘no.’”

Separately, the Associated Press reports that the Obama camp is planning to hit her harder on multiple other fronts, too:

A senior Obama adviser, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Obama's team will respond to Tuesday's results by going negative on Clinton -- raising questions about her tax records and the source of donations to the Clinton presidential library, among skeletons in the Clintons' past.

That's according to an anonymous adviser, so take it for what it's worth. Judging from his quote, it seems pretty clear that Obama's idea for the way forward -- direct engagement with Hillary on her core argument -- is the sounder course.

Late Update: Ben Smith has some good quotes from senior Obama adviser David Axelrod mapping out what's ahead.

We've just obtained a copy of the new ad that the 501c4 issue-advocacy group Campaign to Defend America is running against John McCain in Ohio and Pennsylvania.

It says that McCain offers more of the "McSame as Bush," on issues from Iraq to health care, and repeatedly superimposes Bush's head atop McCain's body.

Here's a first look...

We first reported on the ad here at Election Central yesterday.

The Campaign to Defend America -- which will be running ads on issues like Iraq, the economy, energy, and health care, from a bent that appears to be pro-Democratic -- is spending more than $1,000,000 on the buy, the group tells me.

So how many delegates did Hillary and Obama pick up last night, and what sort of gain, if any, did she make on him?

According to MSNBC's preliminary analysis, here's how the delegates broke down in the four states that voted yesterday:

* In Ohio, Hillary got 73 to Obama's 62.

* In Vermont, Obama got nine to Hillary's six.

* In Rhode Island, Hillary got 13 to Obama's eight.

The Texas numbers are a bit more complex, because the caucus results are still being tabulated. But here's the gist, according to MSNBC right now: She won 46 delegates to his 34. If you include those numbers, she had a net gain of 23 delegates last night.

But before factoring in Texas, Hillary's delegate gain was only 13 higher than his -- and after the caucus results are tabulated, she could see that total sink to as low as seven, MSNBC says, adding that it's also possible that Obama won't cut into that lead by as much as expected, leaving her with a more-than-10-point gain.

Bottom line: According to MSNBC's current projections she could net anywhere from seven to a bit over 10 delegates.

This, obviously, is hardly major progress, given Obama's overall pledged delegate lead of roughly 150 or more. But it's more than some commentators were predicting she'd gain.

As MSNBC put it: "It's impressive nonetheless since so many folks predicted her not even netting 10 delegates last night."

More when we have harder numbers.

Despite Hillary's big wins in Ohio and Texas last night, some super-delegates are already suggesting that a continued contest risks damaging the party and are calling on Howard Dean and other party leaders to be ready to intervene should the race get dirtier:

"Despite Obama's impressive victories in February, Clinton's comeback is based on sowing political seeds of doubt," said Donna Brazile, a Democratic strategist and one of nearly 800 party leaders known as superdelegates for their ability to determine the nomination. "In order to clinch the nomination, he must anticipate the worst attacks ever."...

Some superdelegates are bracing themselves to intervene on Obama's behalf if necessary.

"If these attacks are contrasts based on policy differences, there is no need to stop the race or halt the debate," Brazile said. "But, if this is more division, more diversion from the issues and more of the same politics of personal destruction, chairman Dean and other should be on standby."

Consider that a harbinger of what we're likely to hear from other super-delegates if the race gets uglier without significantly altering the underlying pledged-delegate imbalance between the two candidates.

One outstanding question today: Will that bloc of super-dels who were reported to be ready to bolt to Obama last night materialize, or did Hillary's wins staunch that bleeding for now?

Late Update: The Hotline has an Obama spokesperson flatly denying that any kind of bloc of super-dels was set to get behind Obama.

Obama spokesperson Bill Burton is out with this statement on tonight's results:

“Tonight was the Clinton campaign’s last best chance to make a significant dent in our lead in pledged delegates and they have failed. In our latest projections, we will win the Texas caucus with a double-digit margin and any pledged delegate shift will be absolutely minimal. In fact, Clinton’s chances of regaining the delegate lead actually decreased tonight, as the number of delegates remaining dwindles."

Notwithstanding the shift in momentum and the P.R. victory tonight's results hand Hillary, it's possible that she'll finish the night without cutting into Obama's delegate lead at all.

On MSNBC a few moments ago Chuck Todd estimated that Hillary might pull seven delegates out of Ohio tonight. Todd also presumes that her Rhode Island victory and Obama's Vermont victory will cancel each other out.

And so, if Obama manages to win delegates out of Texas (thanks to the caucuses) that offset Hillary's Ohio delegate gain, she could end the night in pretty much the same position as she was in yesterday, at least as far as the pledged delegate count is concerned.

She won big victories tonight, no question, but it's unclear yet whether the shift in narrative she'll enjoy will transform the race's stubborn underlying dynamic in any significant way.

MSNBC and Fox project that Hillary wins Texas, giving her victories in both her crucial firewall states, and handing her three out of four victories tonight, ensuring that this campaign will continue, possibly all the way until the convention.

She leads Obama 51%-48% in Texas, with 74% reporting. It's a much tighter margin than in Ohio, as expected. But the win allows Hillary to claim that she's won all the big states, an argument that will make it easier for her to argue that she has a fair claim to continuing in the contest, despite her big deficit in pledged delegates.

The Clinton campaign will also seize on the victory in all the big states to argue that despite Obama's big pledged delegate lead, there's no clear victor here, and hence that neither candidate can win without super-delegates -- potentially setting the stage for a bruising intraparty battle with no clear resolution or end.

It's been a long time since Hillary delivered a victory speech, and she is clearly relishing it right now in her victory speech in Ohio. She wasted no time hitting the comeback-kid theme hard in her first words:

For everyone here in Ohio and across America who's ever been counted out but refused to be knocked out, and for everyone who has stumbled but stood right back up, and for everyone who works hard and never gives up, this one is for you.

Also noteworthy: She said that she congratulated Senator McCain on his victory tonight, and noted that she looks forward to a "spirited debate" with him. Of course, there are a few more Dem primary contests -- not to mention Obama's big pledged-delegate lead -- that she'll have to get past first.

More of the speech soon.

Late Late Update: In the speech Hillary slips in a bit of mockery of Obama's "hope" rhetoric:

Together we will turn promises into action, words into solutions, and hope into reality.

CNN and MSNBC call Ohio for Hillary, virtually ensuring that this contest will continue for the foreseeable future. The spread right now: 57%-41% with 53% reporting.

Hillary looks poised to grab this moment and milk it for all it's worth -- she's set to speak any second now. More soon.

Late Update: In her Ohio victory speech, Hillary quickly hits comeback-kid theme.

Late Late Update: Ohio governor Ted Strickland, speaking tonight, hailed Hillary's victory, but inadvertently made it clear that she still faces a steep uphill climb by appealing for donations and bringing up her need for Michigan and Florida:

"I want to say to you and I want to say to America: Let her continue this fight. Let all the people have a chance to vote before we end this contest," he says.

Then he lists the states to come, concluding: "Let us go to Michigan and Florida."

And finally, as direct an ask for money as you'll hear at an event like this:

"I want you and all America to send your money to HillaryClinton.com," he says.

Late Late Update: Hillary, in her victory speech, slips in a bit of mockery of Obama's "hope" rhetoric:

Together we will turn promises into action, words into solutions, and hope into reality.

Late Update: Hillary wins Texas, giving her three out of four contests tonight and a victory in both her key firewall states.

Late Update: So what about the delegates?

Even if Hillary did win three victories tonight, it's unclear whether she'll end up reducing Obama's delegate lead. On MSNBC just now Chuck Todd estimated that she'd likely end up with seven delegates out of Ohio. Hillary's victory in Rhode Island and Obama's in Vermont are expected to cancel each other out. And depending on the Texas caucus results, Obama could end up with a delegate lead out of Texas that could cancel out Hillary's Ohio gain.

So it's not inconceivable that Hillary, notwithstanding the clear shift in momentum and the big P.R. victory she'll earn, could end the night with no real delegate gain.

Late Update: The Obama campaign is out with a new statement arguing that Hillary's chances of winning the nomination actually decreased tonight.

Obama campaign advisers are privately urging the networks and media figures to consider, as they evaluate the incoming results, that in Ohio there are areas where as much as 15% of the vote is provisional ballots.

The Obama camp isn't urging the networks to hold off on calling the race, but is suggesting that media types keep this fact in mind as they navigate competing efforts by the campaigns to suggest that they're on the way to victory.

Obama campaign aides are arguing that media folks should keep in mind that the provisional ballots come in later, and that since those ballots come from African American areas, such as Cleveland, the earlier totals are likely to favor Hillary. They're saying that it would be disenfranchising to black voters to calculate the results before these provisional ballots are in.

In conversations with media figures, Obama aides are pointing out that the nets erroneously called Missouri for Hillary before the provisional ballots came in and were later forced to reverse the results when those ballots came in from the St. Louis area and put Obama over the top.

MSNBC and Fox call Rhode Island for Hillary, 53%-46%, with eight percent reporting.

The Hillary campaign just held an "emergency" conference call in which they made a sharp allegation: They say that Obama officials in Texas are "locking out" Hillary supporters from participating in the caucuses.

The tone is strikingly urgent on the call, with Hillary campaign lawyer Lyn Utrect saying that "the Obama people have managed to take control over the precinct conferences and shut doors when people in line were supposed to be allowed in to participate."

In a sign of just how tense the battle in Texas has become, an Obama lawyer, Bob Bauer, crashed the call, and battled it out pretty aggressively with Hillary spokesperson Howard Wolfson for several minutes.

Wolfson, separately, sought to confer added urgency by noting that this was the first time that such a call had been convened by the Clinton campaign. More in a bit.

Late Update: Ben Smith has more good color from the call.

While we're waiting for the Ohio results, which are too close to call, here's an interesting number from the exit polls: Hillary won by 11 points among voters who made up their minds in the last three days, 55%-44%.

This suggests the possibility that the Obama-NAFTA-Goolsbee story moved votes in the state, but who knows.

One other key number: Hillary is winning by 11 points among white men, who had been going for Obama, which is probably a reflection of the state's larger working class vote.

Some info from the exit polls that will lend comfort to the Obama camp:

The ability to "bring needed change" beats "experience" as the most important quality in a candidate by about a 20-point margin in Ohio and by about 15 points in Texas, according to preliminary exit poll results.

A possible harbinger of a closer-than-expected outcome in Ohio and who-knows-what in Texas...

As expected, all three networks call Vermont for Obama. Preliminary exits say the spread is 62%-37% It's unclear yet, of course, how many of the state's 15 delegates Obama nets.

So now we're seriously underway. Here are the poll closing times for the remaining contests:

* Ohio: 7:30 p.m.

* Texas: 8 p.m.

* Texas caucus begins 8:15 p.m.

* Rhode Island 9 p.m.

We're blogging the results right here. Stay tuned.

Late Update: On MSNBC just now, Obama supporter John Kerry makes a heady prediction:

I'll bet you he wins more delegates as a margin in Vermont than she wins if she wins Ohio or Texas.

Bears watching. Separately, someone needs to tell Kerry that the one thing he shouldn't talk about is Obama's Harvard background, as he did just now. He's not the right messenger for that one...

Late Update: Exit polls here.

Late Update: NBC News allocates eight Vermont delegates for Obama and five for Hillary, with two outstanding.

The Washington Post's Peter Baker pulls back the curtain and reveals the Hillary campaign's long shot strategy for winning despite a seemingly insurmountable pledged delegate disadvantage:

The Obama camp remains confident that they will finish the primary season with a lead among pledged delegates no matter what happens today.

Of course, there are nearly 800 superdelegates and the Clinton camp hopes victories today would give it enough momentum to keep those party elders from flocking to Obama at least until Pennsylvania. If Clinton could prove in the interim that Obama is a paper tiger and not up to the scrutiny a front-runner invariably attracts, her strategists think the superdelegates will decide they have to go with her for the sake of the party.

It's a big gamble and few at Clinton's headquarters in Arlington are fooling themselves about the odds. But this year has shown that anything can happen and politics are not so neat and predictable as we might think.

What this shows, I think, is that Hillary's bash-the-press strategy is partly targeted at the super-delegates. If the Hillary camp can scrape together a big enough win tonight, it can spend the weeks ahead bludgeoning reporters into getting "tough" on Obama, in hopes that the press will poke enough holes in him to sow doubts among the super-dels about his fitness for the general election.

This (or so Camp Hillary hopes) could theoretically keep them from bolting Obama's way en masse. I'm not saying that this is the only, or even the primary, aim of the Hillary campaign's smack-around-the-reporters game plan, just that it's clearly one of the strategic goals here.

Thanks in part to the lack of a competitive GOP contest, a lot of Republican voters are crossing over to vote in the Democratic primary — so much so that Democratic ballot requests are out-numbering the Republicans in even a lot of GOP strongholds. Just who is benefitting, though, it not yet clear.

In the heavily-GOP Cleveland suburb of Chagrin Falls, an estimated 70% of today's ballots are being cast in the Dem race. And judging by the folks who talked to the Plain Dealer and indicated who they'd voted for, they were breaking mostly for Hillary Clinton. We'll find out tonight just how widespread that pattern was.

At a press avail in Texas today, Obama (finally) pushes back on the Hillary campaign's frequent claim that the press has been much rougher on her...

"I am a little surprised that all the complaining about the refs has actually worked as well as it has for them," he added. "This whole spin that the press is being so tough of them and not tough on us. I just didn’t expect you guys would bite on that."

It does appear that the Obama camp has been caught off guard by the now-obvious success of Hillary's bash-the-press strategy. The Hillary camp kept up its pressure on the press today during a conference call, so it'll be interesting to see if Obama's comments today represent the start of a concerted effort to push back on this.

Separately, as it stands now, most press observers and pundits have basically agreed with the Hillary camp on this question.

The Gallup daily tracking poll now shows the Democratic race tightening again — after Barack Obama led by a significant margin for the last few days, it's now an even tie. Here are the numbers, compared to yesterday:

Obama 45% (-3)
Clinton 45% (+3)

If Hillary Clinton can pull off strong wins in Ohio and Texas, not to mention the crucial post-primary spin war, she might just be able to take the national lead again.

If this is an indication of what Dem party infrastructure types will be saying about Hillary and the general election after the dust settles from today's contests, she will need a major win in Texas and Ohio to avert pressure to get out of the race:

State Democratic Chairman Chris Redfern said Mrs. Clinton needs an 8-point victory margin in Ohio and Texas to remain in the race against Mr. Obama, who now has a lead of about 100 delegates and victories in the last 11 contests.

"She must, in my opinion, make that kind of show. It's not an either-or," Mr. Redfern said. "If we don't have a nominee sooner rather than later, it makes it increasingly difficult to defeat John McCain."

People like Redfern, the Ohio state chair, will only grow more vocal in the days ahead, obviously. So it's do or die -- now.

Forget the dog house. The Hillary camp had other ideas for where to stick reporters assigned to cover her in Texas yesterday: In the men's room, right next to the toilets...

It was immediately interpreted as something of a metaphor for the Clinton campaign’s attitude to the press: With Sen. Hillary Clinton at Austin’s convention center for “a Texas-sized townhall,” her media entourage was taken to its work space — in a men’s room of a separate community center.

The tables set up for reporters nearly abutted the urinals. That made for a more spirited rush than usual for the best working space, with female reporters quickly staking out chairs on the small room’s opposite side.

So was the Hillary campaign trying to tell the reporters something? No, claims Clinton spokesperson Doug Hattaway: “For the record, these accommodations should in no way be taken as a commentary on the quality of our media coverage.”

We believe it. If Clinton campaign advisers had situated members of the press in accordance with their attitude towards the media right now, the reporters would have found themselves sitting in the urinals, not near them.

Via HuffPo.

The Campaign To Defend America, a new pro-Democratic 501(c)(4) issue-advocacy group, is already previewing the Dem narrative against John McCain: That he's just the "McSame" as what we've gotten under Bush. The group is now running ads in Ohio with that "McSame" title on both TV and radio, according to FEC filings. We'll post a "McSame" ad as soon as we have it.

The Campaign's source of money for the ad: The Fund For America, a Democratic 527 group set up just for this election cycle. The Fund donated $400,000 to the Campaign, of which $141,073.06 has already been spent.

Hillary advisers continued pushing the press to get tougher on Obama on a conference call with reporters just a few moments ago, urging the media to take a much closer look at the Obama-Rezko story than it has thus far.

To make his case, Hillary spokesperson Phil Singer pointed to this little detail in the Chicago Sun Times today:

Tony Rezko's wife, family members and friends crowded behind him onto a courtroom bench. Spectators spilled into an overflow courtroom. Among them was a staffer from U.S. Sen. Barack Obama's presidential campaign, taking detailed notes.

Singer noted that Obama has a staffer on hand at Rezko's trial, accused Obama of failing to answer questions about his relationship with Rezko, and concluded that the story "should set off alarm bells in newsrooms across America."

It seems clear that Hillary's bash-the-press strategy -- and it is a strategy -- is working by various measures, but it's unclear as yet whether it will have proven too little, too late. We'll find out soon enough.

Going into tonight's races in Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island and Vermont, Hillary Clinton has a lot of ground to make up in the delegate race. With 370 delegates up for grabs, She would need a net win of around 15% in order to really make a dent in Barack Obama's lead of 150 pledged delegates.

Here are the latest tabulations from different news organizations, including super-delegates unless otherwise noted:

CNN: Obama 1,378, Clinton 1,269
CNN: Obama 1,184, Clinton 1,031 (Not counting supers)
NBC: Obama 1,194, Clinton 1,037 (Not counting supers)
ABC: Obama 1,385, Clinton 1,275
CBS: Obama 1,389, Clinton 1,267
Associated Press: Obama 1,386, Clinton 1,276
Associated Press: Obama 1,187, Clinton 1,035 (Not counting supers)
New York Times: Obama 1,303.5, Clinton 1,212
New York Times: Obama 1,155, Clinton 1,021.5 (Not counting supers)

And here's how many delegates are up for grabs tonight:

Ohio: 141
Rhode Island: 21
Texas Primary: 126
Texas Caucus: 67
Vermont: 15
Total: 370

Although all the attention is on the Democratic side for tonight's primaries, there could be some big news for the Republican nomination, too — assuming he gets a big majority of tonight's 256 Republican delegates, John McCain will officially have won the 1,191 total delegates he needs to clinch the Republican nomination.

If that happens, look for Mike Huckabee to end his campaign soon and concede defeat — after all, he has said repeatedly he would keep going until somebody got past the goal-post.

Some commentators have said that Hillary should drop out of the race if she doesn't win both Ohio and Texas today, but rank and file Dems don't seem to agree:

Two-thirds of Democrats say a victory in either Ohio or Texas would be reason enough for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) to keep her historic bid for the party's presidential nomination alive, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Two losses, however, would dramatically change the equation. Only 29 percent of Democrats said Clinton should drop out if she loses one of the two big states, but that number jumps to 51 percent if she loses both.

This suggests that rank and file Dems haven't really focused on the reality of the delegate math, which in turn suggests that the onus may be on the Obama camp to get out their message about their sizable pledged delegate lead a bit more effectively.

Whatever the cause, numbers such as these might persuade the Hillary camp that she'd have public support if she stayed in the race despite losing a big state today, perhaps making that decision more likely.

The final Zogby tracking polls for today's big races put Hillary Clinton narrowly ahead in Texas, but only tied with Barack Obama in Ohio. On top of that, the undecideds are a fairly significant amount. Here are the numbers, compared to yesterday:

Ohio:
Clinton 44% (-1)
Obama 44% (-3)

Texas:
Clinton 47% (+3)
Obama 44% (-3)

From John Zogby's analysis: "Among those in Texas who were just making up their minds in the last few days, Hillary now leads by four percent, which pretty much tells the story."

The American Leadership Project, the 527 group that was set up in order to run ads promoting Hillary Clinton in the upcoming primaries, has a new ad airing in Texas:

A new poll from InsiderAdvantage gives Hillary Clinton a five-point lead in the Texas primary. The numbers, compared to the last poll from Thursday:

Clinton 49% (+2)
Obama 44% (+1)

The result is weighted according to the pollster's predictions of the racial, gender and age demographics for the primary — and pollster Matt Towery thinks this is an optimistic projection for Obama.

"Our weighting is designed to discount Hispanic turnout in areas where historically their turnout has been lighter, and to maximize potential African-American turnout," Towery writes. "Even with this model, which we believe to be accurate, though obviously not a perfect situation for Clinton, she leads."

Who ever thought someone named Goolsbee could incite an international incident? The Obama campaign, working overtime to minimize the damage from the latest turn in the Goolsbee saga, is sending around this video of the Canadian Parliament arguing over the story...

The Obama campaign is defending itself by pointing to the Canadian P.M.'s assertion that the Canadian government regrets its role in sparking this dispute, but it's unclear from his remarks, at least on this video, whether he is saying anything meaningful about the veracity, or lack thereof, of the tale.

Meanwhile, the messaging coming out of the Obama camp on this doesn't appear to be impeccable. Here, for instance, is leading Obama surrogate Dick Durbin still asserting that no meeting took place, though it's now conceded that a meeting did in fact happen...

The debate continues to rage: Glenn Greenwald, Digby, Matthew Yglesias and Editor and Publisher's Greg Mitchell have all weighed in on the Hillary camp's charge that the press has been tougher on her than on Obama.

A rundown on what they said, and a reaction to it, is right here.

The Canadian embassy issues a new statement that tries to clear up the latest Goolsbee mess.

As you know, the latest round started when the Associated Press got hold of a memo written by a Canadian official saying that Goolsbee had in fact suggested that Obama's NAFTA talk was more about politics than policy. Here's the Canadian Embassy's statement on the whole affair:

The Canadian Embassy and our Consulates General regularly contact those involved in all of the Presidential campaigns and, periodically, report on these contacts to interested officials. In the recent report produced by the Consulate General in Chicago, there was no intention to convey, in any way, that Senator Obama and his campaign team were taking a different position in public from views expressed in private, including about NAFTA. We deeply regret any inference that may have been drawn to that effect.

Separately, the Associated Press has released some of the contents of the memo itself. More on that soon.

Yesterday Bill Richardson gave an interview that has gotten a bunch of attention already, because in it he said that Dems should coalesce behind the candidate with the "clear lead" after tomorrow's voting.

"Whoever has the most delegates after Tuesday, a clear lead, should be, in my judgment, the nominee," Richardson said.

But Richardson also offered up some other comments in that interview that have passed unnoticed: Specifically, he criticized Hillary's "red phone" ad, which Hillary pollster Mark Penn credits with shifting the race her way...

He was outspoken in his criticism of Clinton's new "ringing phone" ad, which suggests that Obama is not ready to become commander in chief.

"I happen to disagree with that ad that says that Senator Obama is not ready," he said. "He is ready. He has great judgment, an internationalist background."

That Richardson would directly fault Hillary's core closing argument, and endorse Obama's central claim to having sound judgment, seems telling -- another sign that Richardson may be laying the groundwork to endorse Obama, should tomorrow's results give him an opening to do so.

The new SurveyUSA poll of Texas shows that this primary continues to be a tight race, with Barack Obama having a statistically insignificant one-point lead as Hillary Clinton is apparently making up lost ground. Here are the numbers compared to last week:

Obama 49% (+0)
Clinton 48% (+3)

From the internals: Obama wins men 60%-37%, Hillary wins women 59%-37%. Hillary wins whites 50%-46% and Hispanics 64%-33%, while Obama has a 79%-18% lead among black voters. Obama carries 18-34 year olds by a 59%-38% margin, while Hillary is ahead 59%-37% among voters over 65.

The new SurveyUSA poll finds that Hillary has successfully stopped -- and reversed -- Obama's momentum in Ohio.

She leads him by 10 points -- 54%-44% -- a spread that's up from six points a week ago (though overall, it's down from the 17-point lead she held three weeks ago).

One potentially key finding from the survey: She leads him by 13% among the early voting. If this is correct, the pollsters say, Obama would need to carry Primary Day precinct voters 52% to 48% if he is to win Ohio.

Hillary has also expanded her Ohio lead in polls from Rasmussen and Public Policy Polling (D), while slipping in Quinnipiac and Zogby. On the whole, her lead appears to have gone up.

Of course, in the end, a Hillary victory in Ohio doesn't mean much at all if she loses in Texas.

The new Public Policy Polling (D) survey from Texas shows Hillary Clinton taking a lead here, a possible sign of recovery after polls had put Barack Obama in the lead for the past week. Here are the numbers compared to last week's poll:

Clinton 50% (+2)
Obama 44% (-4)

From the internals: Hillary leads 58%-37% among whites and 67%-30% with Hispanics, while Obama is ahead 78%-13% among a core base of black voters.

From the pollster's analysis: "Barack Obama has tried hard but still seems unable to win over Hispanic voters. That dynamic is what caused him to lose in California, and it looks like recent history may repeat itself tomorrow in Texas."

Meanwhile, the new Rasmussen poll shows Obama ahead in Texas by only a 48%-47% margin, after having previously led by four points.

Here it is: Obama's two-minute closing ad, called "Leader," to run during broadcast news programs in Texas tonight...

The ad also ran during Texas broadcasts last night, and a similar version of the ad will run in Ohio, too.

Mark Penn, on a conference call with reporters just now, suggested that that the controversial red-phone-ringing-at-3-A.M. ad is resonating with "millions" of voters.

Asked for some evidence of this, Penn asserted that the campaign's internal polls support the claim. "What we're seeing internally," Penn said, is that the ad has kicked off a new round of debate and that it has persuaded women that "she is the one ready to be commander in chief."

He added that the internals show that the ad has people saying, "Oh yeah, maybe we didn't realize that national security and commander in chief [credentials] have been important and will be important in trying to defeat Senator McCain."

All in all, another sign of the extent to which the Hillary camp has pushed all its chips on this effort to sow last-minute doubts about Obama's fitness to be commander in chief, in an effort to sway the late-breakers her way. "We expect to fully blunt" Obama's momentum, Penn concluded.

In less than 48 hours, we'll know if it worked.

The new poll of Ohio from Public Policy Polling (D) shows Hillary Clinton increasing her lead for tomorrow's primary. The numbers, compared to last week's:

Clinton 51% (+1)
Obama 42% (-4)

From the internals: Hillary leads 59%-34% among whites, with Obama ahead 75%-18% with African-Americans. Hillary has a 54%-38% lead with women voters, while men are statistically tied at 47% to Obama and 46% for Hillary.

Another key stat: Obama isn't doing as well here among young voters as he usually does. He only wins 18-29 year olds by 49%-46%, and Hillary wins 30-45 year olds 48%-44%.

The barrage is coming fast and furious today: Hillary is up with a new ad in Texas questioning Obama's "judgment" by using his own quotes about his committee overseeing the forces in Afghanistan against him...

Meanwhile, in Ohio -- where the Hillary campaign deliberately chose not to run the controversial red-phone ad hitting Obama because the electorate there is concerned with the economy -- she's up with this positive spot tailored to lower income and working class voters that comprise her base...

Hillary Clinton hasn't even conceded defeat for the Democratic nomination, but top staffers are already publicly blaming each other for what has gone wrong in the campaign. And it seems to be degenerating into two camps: Chief pollster Mark Penn vs. everyone else.

Penn told the Los Angeles Times that his role in the campaign has been overstated — he says he has simply been "an outside message advisor with no campaign staff reporting to me."

"I have had no say or involvement in four key areas — the financial budget and resource allocation, political or organizational sides," Penn told the Los Angeles Times. "Those were the responsibility of Patti Solis Doyle, Harold Ickes and Mike Henry, and they met separately on all matters relating to those areas."

Hillary is already out with a statement hitting Obama over the Associated Press story reporting that a Canadian official said in a memo that Obama economic adviser Antan Goolsbee privately suggested that Obama's NAFTA stump talk was "more about political positioning than a clear articulation of policy plans."

Here's her statement...

I think that after days of denial, the Obama campaign was confronted with a memo of a meeting -- it was my understanding -- in which there was a discussion of NAFTA. And it raises questions about Senator Obama coming to Ohio and giving speeches about NAFTA and having his chief economic advisor tell the Canadian government that it was just political rhetoric. I don’t think people should come to Ohio and tell the people of Ohio one thing and then have your campaign tell a foreign government something else behind closed doors.

Goolsbee has disputed the memo's characterization of the conversation, saying: "In no possible way was I inferring that he was going to introduce any policies that you should ignore and he had no intention of enacting."

It's unclear how this latest turn in the whole saga will play in Ohio, where NAFTA is a highly-charged issue, or whether it's coming too late to move votes there.

A new Rasmussen poll of Ohio shows Hillary Clinton potentially pulling away in the Democratic primary, after the race had been much closer just a few days ago. Here are the numbers, compared to the poll released on Friday:

Clinton 50% (+3)
Obama 44% (-1)

Obama economic adviser Austan Goolsbee did characterize Obama's stance on NAFTA as being "more about political positioning than a clear articulation of policy plans," according to a long memo written by a Canadian official that was obtained by the Associated Press.

The memo contradicts initial suggestions by the Obama campaign that no such conversation ever happened — meaning that this story has suddenly taken a turn for the worse for the Obama campaign.

But Goolsbee himself is disputing the memo's content, saying he never described Obama's stance on NAFTA as being simply rhetoric.

"That's a pretty ham-handed description of what I answered," Goolsbee said. "A: In no possible way was that a reference to NAFTA. And B: In no possible way was I inferring that he was going to introduce any policies that you should ignore and he had no intention of enacting. Those are both completely crazy."

The memo, however, suggests otherwise. "Noting anxiety among many U.S. domestic audiences about the U.S. economic outlook, Goolsbee candidly acknowledged the protectionist sentiment that has emerged, particularly in the Midwest, during the primary campaign," the memo says. "He cautioned that this messaging should not be taken out of context and should be viewed as more about political positioning than a clear articulation of policy plans."

The memo continued: "On NAFTA, Goolsbee suggested that Obama is less about fundamentally changing the agreement and more in favour of strengthening/clarifying language on labour mobility and environment and trying to establish these as more 'core' principles of the agreement."

This latest turn in the saga comes amid skirmishing between the two camps over NAFTA, a highly-charged issue in Ohio, where voters go to the polls tomorrow in what could be a contest that decides the outcome of the race.

This morning's Zogby tracking polls shows Barack Obama holding narrow leads in Texas and Ohio, though both results are well within the margins of error. Here are the numbers, compared to yesterday's tracking poll:

Ohio:
Obama 47% (+1)
Clinton 45% (-2)

Texas:
Obama 47% (+0)
Clinton 44% (+1)

So far, this is the only major poll to give Obama any kind of lead in Ohio.

The new Quinnipiac poll of Ohio shows the Democratic primary closing fast here. Hillary Clinton led by 11 points a week ago, but now her edge is down to only 4 points. Here are the numbers, compared to last week:

Clinton 49% (-2)
Obama 45% (+5)

From the internals: Hillary leads by 55%-39% among women, and Obama by the same 55%-39% with men. White men are now statistically tied, versus a 16-point edge for Hillary last week.

Pressure is starting to mount on Hillary Clinton — that if she doesn't win overwhelming victories on Tuesday, she should think about dropping out of the race. So said both Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL), a Barack Obama supporter, and the neutral Bill Richardson.

"I hope ultimately she makes an honest appraisal of her chances," Durbin said. "I hope after Tuesday her decision is made on the basis of the unity of the party."

Meanwhile, Bill Richardson said on Face The Nation today that it's important for the party to unify behind a nominee soon, rather than continue to have a negative campaign that will further divide the party for the general election against John McCain.

"I just think the D-Day is Tuesday," said Richardson, who has declined to make an endorsement since his exit from the race. "We have to have a positive campaign after Tuesday. Whoever has the most delegates after Tuesday — a clear lead — should be in my judgment the nominee."

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist, a Republican, has stepped into the fight over the Democratic Party's refusal of delegates for the Florida rogue primary. Crist has now signaled that he would be willing to hold a whole new primary election, working with the DNC to make sure the state is represented based on those results. "I think it's very important though that those delegates are seated," Crist said.

If such a new primary election were called, with delegates accepted without complaint by the Democratic National Committee, the possible outcomes essentially fall into two categories: 1) Hillary Clinton again wins by a big margin, giving her a delegate boost against Obama, or 2) Hillary wins only narrowly or perhaps even loses, depriving her of her plan to fall back on a fight to seat the state's delegates.

Here's a rundown on some stuff that's happening today, some 48 hours (!) before voting starts being tallied in the contests that could determine the outcome of the race....

* The Times's Frank Rich and Maureen Dowd sling barbs at Hillary yet again, drawing gentle mockery from a well-known Beltway media insider.

* Press expert Walter Shorenstein says he agrees that the coverage has been biased against Hillary (though he is a Clinton supporter).

* The Hillary campaign will hold a conference call this afternoon with a bunch of military brass in a last ditch effort to sow doubts about Obama's ability to handle that 3 A.M. White House phone call she keeps talking about.

* The Dallas Morning News takes a look at the Hillary-Obama struggle for the support of evangelical Dems in Texas (yes, there are more than a few of them, apparently).

* While Obama has made inroads into just about every Hillary constituency, he still is struggling to win over Catholics.

* And finally, a nice catch from Ben Smith: In the new New Yorker profile of Michelle Obama, her brother, Craig Robinson, makes fun of Hillary's tears:

"I mean, you know, sometimes you get angry. But it’s so ludicrous that it’s almost comical. It really is. It really is. And the whole crying now before every primary? You’ve got to be kidding me. If I was a woman, I’d be embarrassed for her,” he said of Hillary Clinton.

No, Robinson isn't the Obama campaign, but this one's awfully easy to avoid doing.

A new MSNBC/Fort Worth Star-Telegram poll finds a statistical dead heat in Texas: Obama has 46% to Hillary's 45%, with eight percent undecided.

Other findings: Hillary's base of Latinos in the state is holding steady -- she holds a two-to-one lead among them, giving her a runaway lead in Latino-heavy south Texas. She also holds lead among the rural voters of west Texas. But, in a key finding, Obama holds a solid lead in populous Texas urban areas, which could give him an edge in the delegate count.

Meanwhile, in Ohio, a new Cleveland Plain-Dealer poll finds Hillary with a four-point lead over Obama, 47%-43%. Hillary is holding big leads among the lower-income voters of southeast Ohio and among female voters; Obama is winning by a similar margin among men and holds a huge lead among blacks.

Key finding: The voters see little daylight between the two candidates on NAFTA, a super-charged issue in the state. One other key stat: More than 90% say they're not changing their minds, minimizing the possibility of a big Hillary victory, which she needs to make substantial inroads into Obama's pledged delegate advantage.

(Via The Page.)

Hillary Clinton has a new ad in Texas, in which the candidate speaks to the camera accompanied by Spanish subtitles:

"I have many friends in Texas. I know your traditions and culture," Hillary says. "But I also understand the problems you face."

(Via Ben Smith)

Barack Obama is on the air in Texas with four new ads, mainly focusing on national security and veterans' issues. In addition is this one, a call for national unity meant to appeal to independents and crossover Republicans:

"I don't want to pit Red America against Blue America," Obama says. "I want to be the President of the United States of America."

The other three ads are available after the jump.

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