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Zogby: Obama Leads Hillary Nationally By 14 Points

The new Zogby national poll gives Barack Obama a huge lead over Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination, with 52% to her 38%. The internals show the two tied among women voters, with Obama winning men by about two to one — consistent with his Wisconsin win last night.

The poll also shows Obama to be a much stronger Dem nominee against John McCain:

Obama (D) 47%, McCain (R) 40%
McCain (R) 50%, Clinton (D) 38%

There is one caveat, though: Zogby's polls for the state races on Super Tuesday showed significant error in Obama's favor. On the other hand, the internals of this poll match up pretty well with the Wisconsin exit polling.


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Yesterday Obama's national lead 'vaporized' and today it is up 13pts....

Are the people conducting the polls this election on crack????

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LSD, I think. They are clearly hallucinating all over the place.

That needs a correction. Zogby was way, way out of line on February 5 in California. He dramatically underestimated Hispanic turnout in SoCal, and it badly skewed his results. In the remaining states where he polled, he showed Obama doing better than many other polls - and was largely correct.

I'd be the last one to defend Zogby's methodology, and I take all his polls with a healthy dose of skepticism, because of his penchant for trumpeting small-sample trends and his facility for hedging to match expectations. But that stands independent of February 5.

You are essentially right, except in the details.

Actually Zogby made his mistake based on female turn out for the vote, not hispanics. But your healthy dose of salt is correct.

I generally don't pay a lot of attention to Zogby. But he has also nailed some of these contests more closely than others.

Polling is a black art. Listen to none but Pollster. The poll of polls.

Whatever they are on it seems to cause extreme mood swings.

Yesterday was Gallop poll, not Zogby.

I think you're confusing your pollmysters.

I think that the best policy is just to ignore Zogby. His methodology is not so much flawed as it is crumbled. Obama is ahead, but not by nearly that much.

YES WE'RE CONNED!!! YES WE'RE CONNED!!!
YES WE'RE CONNED!!! YES WE"RE CONNED!!!

Screaming like an idiot? Who's supporters now sound irrational and emotionally driven with blathering rants about being conned? The accusation that Obama supporters have been emotionally driven is shallow anyhow: beneath the spirited rallies is a rational choice for the person with the better character, intellect, judgment, and ability to not only win, but to get independents behind a progressive turn in government. Hillary is not the rational choice under these criteria, it just looks like people are being irrational because they are actually happy about supporting Obama.

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Well, there is something to be said about the rationality of pessimism. :(

In reply to which Nietzsche affirms the only ultimate solution - "amor fati":

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amor_fati

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By the way, I think that this poll is a bunch of bs. I don't believe that he has a "national" 14 point lead over her. I think these national polls are dumb anyway. It's state by state that are important, not this national poll bs.

I think Zogby decided to stay away from polling actual elections so that he could focus on hypothetical matchups that can't harm his reputation further.

I'm an Obama supporter, but Zogby is a mess. I trust him about as much as I trust Frank Luntz.

Zogby is not pro obama by any means. He was specatularly wrong on at least 3 polls. Iowa he was off by like 14 points for Hillary. SC he far underestimated Obama. Cali, he favored Obama by WAY too much. And in one of the recent contests. Maybe Maine. He was way off for Hillary. He's just a crappy poll maker....

Same here. I am neither excited to see Obama up in Zogby polls nor disappointed to see him down in them. The Zogby outfit have made themselves rather too easy to ignore, and that only goes even more strongly for the fatuous national average polls which tell us nothing worth knowing at this point anyway.

Zogby may not have been too far off in estimating California after all...many of the independents didn't get to vote for president because of a flaw in the ballot printing. The exact number is still being looked at.

But independents comprised 19% of voters in Cali, so that had a real effect.

Also, I was living at the same address in Los Angeles for ten years and in 2004 I got a provisional ballot instead of my regular one because my precint couldn't find my name..even though I got my sample ballot and precinct info via US mail. There were many such problems reported and things haven't improved.

I'm an Obama supporter, but I take Zogby numbers with a full shaker of salt.

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He's up, but not by 14 points at least not yet. I think he will get a bump from WI but not that much. It will average out when the other polls come in.

On a side note I think one of the major reasons Hillary is sliding is all the press about her wanting to change the rules and seat the MI and FL delegates and the plan to steal pledged delegates have turned a large part of America off. It not only sounds desperate but conniving which attacks her character in a way that she is particularly vulnerable to. America is a competitive country but changing the rules halfway through the game is just cheating.

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One of the underreported stories of this campaign is not the inaccuracy of the polls, but their comparative irrelevance.

The four major players in recent political history have been more Pollish than Lech Walesa. Bill was unabashedly poll-driven. So too was Newt. Rove monitored polls like vital signs in an ICU. Hillary won't empty her bladder without a focus group.

Obama, on the other hand, comes across as though he couldn't care less about such things. This is not actually the case, of course, but appearances are what they are.

Meanwhile, Americans have become disdainful of the whole polling process. They lie to pollsters. They decline to participate. They don't trust the results.

The furniture has been rearranged.

Not that I am not taking this with an entire salt-flat but SurveyUSA which has been one of the better outfits this year shows Obama down by only 9pts in Ohio. This is a good 4-5 pts less than the polls conducted a few days ago and this one was before the WI blow-out.
This baby is Over. McCain vs Obama so I think the only polls that are going to matter soon are going to be those polls.
btw - RealPolitics has a pretty good article on why they think the Dem polls are so insane but the GE polls have been pretty consistent.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/2008/02/some_reflections_on_polling_in.html

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It's not particularly surprising that Hillary's floundering nationally ever since she stopped running a national campaign and plunged full force into Texas and Ohio with minor detours to the Potomac states and Wisconsin to try and stop bleeding delegates at a totally alarming rate and limit comparisons to Rudy's firewall (with some success). The "we can win this thing!" until two days before a primary, and then uprooting and heading for Ohio/Texas for a standard stump speech not mentioning that night's results is getting a little tired.

Not to mention the single-minded targeting of her support in Texas on 2/12 and in Ohio on 2/19. That night in Texas, "Hillary is the first Latina president!" and hundreds of Mexican-American faces dotting the audience. Conversely, I think there was one single non-white-middle-aged-woman in the tableau behind Hillary last night, despite Ohio being a fairly diverse state. Banking her candidacy on being able to pull out a big win in two states via strong support in really disparate groups (Lou Dobbsian lower-middle-class whites in Ohio, Mexican-Americans in Texas) without hemorrhaging support amongst, you know, everyone else... against an opponents who's explicitly campaigning for the votes of everyone was a gamble to say the least, and it doesn't appear that Hillary's support is holding out long enough to make that gamble pay off.

Unless last second negative attacks by Hillary or billionaire-backed 527s can somehow trip up Obama, the national momentum will continue as people see the cynical nature of the microtargeted Clinton campaign.

DOES ANYONE BELIEVE ZOGBY? Zogby and ARG should be investigated for human rights abuses. Both of them lock monkeys up in a dim room and have them throw feces at a chart with candidates' names on them. They're terrible on animal rights and even worse on polling.

p.s: Just so we're clear, this isn't sour grapes from a Clinton supporter. I'm an Obama supporter who likes reading non-feces generated polling data. Also, I'm not a latte-drinking, Prius- driving, Birkenstock-wearing, trust fund baby as Clinton surrogates are claiming today.

please stop using zogby and ARG, they are not using credible methodology at this point

The American public has seen Hillary for who she really is, and is voting appropriately.

This whole race could be over in a week, if we all just keep repeating a few simple words:

"Shame on you, Hillary Clinton!"

When choosing between Optimism and Pessimism, I generally choose the sandwich- Fat is dead...

http://www.theonion.com/content/node/39313

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