I don't think the upcoming schedule favors Obama. February doesn't have many big contest and even then Hillary will still pick up 40-50% of the delegates.

After that most of the state where Obama will be favored will be done and the large working class states such as Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania start to come into play. Hillary should do well in those delegate rich states.

She may not have the nomination wrapped up, but she should go into the convention with a 200 - 300 delegate advantage. At that point, the 'supers' will probably make it offical.

I still hear talk of 'momentum' helping Obama in those March contest. So far momentum has not played much of a factor in any contest. Not for Obama after Iowa and not for Clinton after New Hampshire.

What KevinH said.

As I've said before - I still like her chances.

But there's one more thing to clear up before the weekend. Ever since Tuesday, when the Obama campaign made a holy pronouncement and his devotees fell prostrate before it, I have heard the mantra said thusly over and over again: "Verily, He hast more delegates." or "He wonneth more delegates on Tuesday than Hillary dideth."

Sorry, true believers. Neither is true. I know you won't believe an apostate like me, so here's the link:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#D

That said, Obama should do very well this weekend and this week it's Hillary's job to stay close. But after Ohio and Pennsylvania have spoken, Hillary will go into the convention as a big favorite, leading in pledged delegates, popular vote, and with Florida and Michigan in her favor. I agree, her superdelegates may put her over the top.

I still like her chances.

Not a good month for Hillary: A win in Maine would spark a big celebration--and the Obama ground game has a pretty solid track record on getting voters out to caucus.

She's playing defense and hanging on until March 4th.

Caucus doesn't always equal an Obama win (Nevada). Still, 3/4 wouldn't be bad, and since theyre haven't been any polls, who knows what could happen in Maine.

The reason Obama supporters keep saying he won more delegates is that we aren't counting superdelegates. You can argue about the fairness or accuracy of that, but when it come down to it, he has more pledged delegates.

Maybe we're overly optimistic, but I think most of us believe that the superdelegates will fall into line with the pledged delegate count at the convention to avoid the negative reaction that would be caused by them essentially going against the will of the voters. Hillary may lead in declared superdelegates, but that doesn't really matter until they cast their votes.

Don't forget about Maine's "independent" streak. I wouldn't be surprised to see Obama sweep the next seven primaries (these four, plus Potomac primaries) -- eight if you include Virgin Islands.

Led Nudd:

I don't think your analysis works. CNN and NY Times both project Hillary with a lead of about 100 - 150 committed (Supers and pledged) delegate right now.

I know with the proportional delegate process, Obama will narrow that lead considerably in February. But for every 3 delegates he picks up, she'll pick up 2. In March that ratio will be reversed, only with bigger states. Very unlikely he will be able to make up the current deficit and move 100 ahead before the convention.

Having the most delegates will also give Hillary control over the rules committee. The Michigan and Florida slates should then be seated, giving Hillary an even bigger margin.

Obama will win:

Louisiana
Nebraska
Virginia
Hawaii
Washington D.C.

Clinton will win:

Washington State
Maine
Maryland
Wisconsin

For all ur calculations, it is Latinos in TX will decide to give final kick to Obama. They are voting 7-3 for Hillary and along with OH & PA she will have good delegate lead, even after Obama wins other states. TX has 30% latinos against 10% black, this gives good delegate lead just like in CA to HRC.
Obamas best states will done by this weekend, he doesn't have chance after that.

ALso good read is Karl Rove's analysis on Fox News. U may hate him but when it comes to elections he is accurate.

HillaryClinton08,
Washington & Maryland? Seriously? There have only been a couple polls in theres places, but they have been overwhelmingly for Obama (plus, they are the kind of places he wins). I have no idea about Maine, and WI will be very close.

Washington, Maryland and Wisconsin for Clinton?

I want some of what you're smoking.

I think Maine is a toss up right now. The Dem establishment has been strongly Clinton for some time (Bill helped fundraise for the current Gov), so that's where allegiances lie. But Maine is strangely independent- they elected a 2-term independent governor, and Ross Perot had a very strong showing with 30% in 1992.

To those people that think that Texas and Ohio are going to give Hillary a huge boost, I think you need to recalibrate your estimates. Assuming that she wins both states by the same percentage she won California, she'll only pick up a 15 delegate edge from Ohio and a 21 delegate edge from Texas. And given that Texas has some very complex rules (primary + caucus, delegates allocated based on the democratic votes in the last governor's election), I'm not sure she can run up that margin in Texas.

Latest polls on the upcoming states:

Virginia: Obama 59, Clinton 39
Maryland: Obama 52, Clinton 33
Washington: Obama 55, Clinton 40
Nebraska: Favoring Obama, no numbers yet
Louisiana: Favoring Obama, no numbers yet
Maine: Favoring Clinton, no numbers yet

Oh, and uh...Washington is a blue state.

For those of you who support Barack Obama, PLEASE go to

www:freedomsenemies.com/_more/obama.htm

These are his own words from his book, friends and family. He was right when he said that no politician is clean. He is just as dirty if not more so than the rest. Some new change. He is not an outsider he's in the Senate. Why did he go along with supporting the war once he had the power to vote against it? What a hypocrite. I feel sorry for those who were taken in by him.

He has taken the great words of JFK and MLK and used them for his own. What a fraud. Yes the U.S. desperately wants change. They want change from George W Bush and it doesn't matter who it is. Obama wants you to believe in the words that he says but it's not what he believes in his heart.

Roseanne? Is that you?

Remember that Texas is a hybrid system, part primary, part caucus. If you vote in the primary, you can participate in the caucus. Getting followers to do both will make the day. I like Obama's ground game better. Texas will be, at worst, a draw for Obama. If he keeps Ohio close, Hilary is in trouble, no matter how you crunch the numbers.

Junionman "Stop threatening to vote for McCain"

Here, here. I'm an Obama supporter and I think he's a far superior candidate. But think about that for a second. We probably have one or two Supreme Court justices retiring in the next 4 years. Do you want another Scalia and Roberts... or Thomas (shudder). Hillary brings all the baggage of the Clintons and reminds me of the bitterness I felt back in 2000 when I might have seriously voted for McCain over Gore (I was that pissed at the failures of the Administration to live up their potential through scandal and personal faults). But it's no longer 2000, we've suffered 8 years under a criminal Administration with it's illegal wars, torture and wiretapping. Remember the freedom zones of 2004? The country needs CHANGE, and Obama IS the force for Change. But the country being led by even a Clinton Democratic Administration would be far superior to any Republican right now. The Republicans have abdicated their right to rule this country. PLEASE stop this "cow chips". I believe Obama will win, but don't hold your breath like a three year old or cut your nose off to spite your face if we end up with Hillary. THINK!

Yes we can! Obama 4-0 this weekend!

I disagree with Eric's analysis of Louisiana:

"Obama is considered the favorite here due largely to the large portion black voters among the state's Democrats..."

From everything I've read, that African-American base is still over 100k light, compared to pre-Katrina numbers. And more susceptible to caging, along with other vote manipulation tactics.

I'd call Louisiana a squeaker for Obama.

I think Maine could easily go for Clinton.

Overall, my feeling is two to one Obama, with a possible vote win but delegate loss in Louisiana.

Forgot to include the Noonan link! Sorry.

http://online.wsj.com/article/declarations.html

I don't know if you heard, but Hillary started using Obama lines today. She said to a crowd, "My opponent says 'no you can't,' but I say 'Yes we can!'"

Surprised she didn't get laughed off the stage.

This is worse than when she tried to use a southern accent when she was addressing Martin Luther King's Church in Atlanta.

What goes on in her brain? She actually thinks people will hear her use this line and not think she's ripping off Obama?

Shows a serious lack of creativity, if you ask me.

Oh well. Even Mitt Romney started calling himself The Change Candidate.

What a bunch of losers these people are.

Junionman

It is not that people who say they will vote for McCain should Sen. Clinton get the nomination can only support one candidate. It is that there is one candidate they cannot support. I personally will likely hold my nose and vote for her based solely on my concern for the Supreme Court. I would be conflicted about it though, and can understand why some one could not do so.

I am not some irrational Hillary hater who thinks that she killed Vince Foster or some other conspiracy BS. I think she lacks the courage of her convictions and will not stand up and make the unpopular choice. She believes that a politician must respond to popular opinion. Sen. Obama thinks that a leader molds popular opinion.

She would never win over anyone who was not with her from the start because she thinks you defeat enemies in politics. He would because he believes you convince enough of those who disagree with you through reasoned argument to win without being combative. Sen. Clinton has never learned that you attract more flies with honey than you do with vinegar.

"As for Ohio, the candidates are gearing up right now and I've noticed a huge difference in the energy levels and commitment. In the south at least the bumper stickers I've seen are running about 15 to 0 for Obama and the signs are starting to sprout."

Well not going to easy then for Obama then. I hope that you see some Obama signs soon to.

Keith

I am just astounded by the Naivity of those who believe that Obama even would have even the slightest chance of beating McCain and the whole money machine that put GW in office for 2 terms, put together with Swift Boat veterans commercials that decimated Kerry, etc?

All they have to do is play the terror card (which they have done so well) and dig up a little dirt about this man (with a gift for inspiring speeches and motivating the young) but about whom frightening little is known.

This man is the Republicans' DREAM candidate. Why on earth do you believe he has been raised to raise so many millions of dollars so quickly?

It would be good if Barack could show that he can win in some of the upcoming traditional blue states that a general election democratic candidate has to have in order to win in November. So far, it's been Hillary who has been stronger there and she is on track with the traditional strategy:
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/02/07/just_do_the_math/index.php

For the future, we can be very encouraged by the inroads Barack has been making in the red states he has been picking up. But those states will be lost anyway for the winner-take-all Electoral College this time around. Maybe in 2012 or 2016?

Oh, and anyone who refuses to vote for Hillary in the general should be shot.

Loyal TPM readers: Can someone shed some light on the exact delegate count at the moment on the Dem side? The RCP site has it at 875 for Obama to 865 for Clinton in pledged delegates.....The Obama website has it at 910 for Obama and 882 for Clinton (interesting, the results don't appear on HRC's site).....Of course the two huge outstanding issues are the Superdelegates (I think there are 793 of them, of which at least 500+ are undecided!!) and the unseated delegates in Fla and Mich (another 300+ delegates, if they ever get seated, and according to what formula???)....The Supers will be enough to swing the nomination either way, no matter what happens between now and the end of the Primaries. Clearly, for Obama to win, he must go in to the convention significantly ahead in pledged delegates (enough to overcome HRC's advantage including Superdelegates). If Obama's total delegate count (including Supers) is ahead of Hillary going in to the Convention, I beleive it will be impossible for her to emerge with the nomination untainted. If there are back room deals struck to give it to her, the party will experience a horrible backlash that will undoubtedly deliver the Presidency to McCain. Each contest is critical in picking up delegates, and I am watching with a calculator close at hand!

Josh,

Some comments after returning from our caucus in Nebraska Legislative District 18.

The turnout was huge. Caucus started and finished about an hour late due to the unexpected, massive flow of people moving through the system.

My estimate of the vote is 80-20 (at least) in favor of Sen. Obama.

Huge African-American turnout. Our district is predominantly white (as you would expect), but I estimate the crowd at 30-35% African-American. Very few middle-aged white males. Very interesting.

Demographics for Obama were close to what we’ve seen nationally. However, a very small presence of young people (under 30).

Demographics for Hillary were interesting. I estimate 85+% of her supporters over 55, 90+% women, 0 (that’s right, none) African-Americans.

I live 1 block from the polling place, in an upper middle class neighborhood (6 figure incomes mostly). Out of the 2000+ attendees, I saw one person that I knew – a teacher. This was of interest because I have been very involved with my children’s schools. I know many people in the area from coaching their kids in sports. Our house is where all the kids play. While I knew that the great preponderance of people in our neighborhood were Republicans, it was disappointing that I didn’t see more of my neighbors.

There was real excitement in the room. Very friendly atmosphere. People are engaged and eager to talk.

Don’t really have a delta as to how big the turnout was in comparison to previous years (this is Nebraska’s first caucus year), but, clearly, whomever in the party was estimating turnout was not expecting the volume that we had.

Don't forget, however, that Obama won 13 delegates in Nevada to Hillary's 12. The Obama campaign's strategy is to win the most delegates even if they end up losing the state. So far, their strategy has been working very well for them.