Christ on a cracker!

Well, at least both sides have got something to hang their hopes on.

Lol. I'm going to have to go with "both wrong."

The differing polls must imply that the two pollsters are weighting their results differently. Zogby is assuming greater turnout of Obama supporters than is SurveyUSA. Otherwise, it would be almost impossible for them to have such different predictions. Conclusion: the results today are all about the various campaigns ground games.

File this day under a great big "who knows?".

I hope, as an Obama voter, he can keep it close (within the 100 delegate benchmark), and make up that ground the rest of the month. But, who knows?

Both have good track records? Really? I can't remember the last time Zogby got it right. Not in 2004. Not in 2006. Not in January.

unfortunately, Zogby doesn't release its demographic models, so its hard to say why there is such a huge difference in California.

The Post has the demographic data from the 2004 primary at http://blog.washingtonpost.com/behind-the-numbers/2008/01/demos_for_next_dem_primaries.html

Survey USA is predicting a much higher percentage of Latino (26% predicted, 16% 2004) and Asian/Other (12% predicted, 8% 2004) voters than in 2004, and only a marginal increase in the percentage of black voters (9% predicted, 8% 2004) -- and a much smaller percentage of white voters (54% predicted, 68% 2004).

And while age ranges are not exactly equivalent, Survey USA is using 25% for voters 18-34, while in 2004 voters 18-29 comprised 11% of the electorate.

Now, I don't know what all this means -- I think that black participation is going to be slightly higher than Survey USA is saying (11-12%), but not enough to make a significant difference in the outcome.

Eric...do you have access to the weighting used by Zogby?

Agreed Mr. Purple, the polls have been so wrong its not even funny. The only poll that matters is the one coming out tonight after the voting is over. It will be very interesting to see what happens. Also, Obama v. McCain would be the ultimate election and people would actually be able to choose the country's course between two diametrically opposite candidates. The Clintons v. McCain would be a choice between one or the other perpetuating the status quo and McCain would win easily.

Why the hell aren't my posts getting posted???! This shit is getting old fast. No wonder people are starting to not even bother commenting here anymore.

Does anyone else notice that items on the right side of the TPM page, such as this one, only show on screen, while a member is logged out?. When I am logged in, only the left column items are shown, but once I log out, the contents of the entire page appear on screen.

The same thing happens on the TPMelection Central page. Please let the software troubleshooters know about the problem.

Ok, this is a must read for anyone on the fence. Please think before you vote!!!!!

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/02/04/AR2008020402427.html

FWIW, SurveyUSA has been on the high end for Clinton throughout the last month, and Zogby has been on the high end for Obama for awhile as well. The question is whether one (or both) have a polling bias (question/questioner, or likely voter model), since clearly they're not both right. The temptation is to split the difference, but after tonight we'll know. As an earlier commenter noted, Zogby's record hasn't been great lately.

Vis-a-vis voting in MO, here is something that I will be wondering about for the rest of my morning. I went to my polling place in St Louis and they had both paper ballots (optical scan) and touchscreen machines. I have voted on the touch-screen before, but being extremely concerned that my vote for Obama should count, I took the paper ballot. The optical scan machines are a new thing in my polling place (we were using punch cards until just recently) but I had used optical scan voting machines in Michigan back when I lived in Ann Arbor. In MI, the optical scan ballot was a huge piece of paper (about the size of a Rand-McNalley Atlas) and after marking it you put in into an even larger envelope which you handed to an election worker you maneuvered the envelope towards the machine in a particular direction so that the ballot went into the machine in a particular orientation. The ballot I got this morning was just smaller than 8.5x11 and there was no evelope. When I went to hand it to the poll worker, she gestured for me to put it into the machine myself, so I did.

So, I know that it mattered in MI which way the ballot went into the machine. Does it not matter with our machines here in St Louis? If it does, then there is only a 1 in 4 chance that I put it in the right way. Maybe I am just being paranoid, but I almost wish that I had voted with the touchscreen machines now, because I would at least know that I used it the right way.

Oh no Mister Bill not The Incumbent Rule! My old buddy Charles Cook burned me with that one in 2004 and now Josh Marshall's at it in a late post

As far as Missouri is concerned, a high turnout in the suburbs of St. Louis and Kansas City will probably favor Romney.

The weather forecast in St. Louis is for thunderstorms which is NOT good news for Obama who needs to carry the city massively to compensate for Clinton's popularity with Democrats statewide.

I think that Clinton will carry the state by 4 to 5 percentage points.

WE LET THE MEDIA STEER US INTO THE BUSH PRESIDENCY........WE LET THE MEDIA GET US INTO A WAR WE SHOULDNT HAVE EVEN THOUGHT OF BEING IN.........NOW THE MEDIA IS TRYING TO SHOVE A CANDITATE DOWN OUR THROATS WHO IS A SENATOR FOR 3 YEARS ........WHO IS A CON ARTIST WHOS TALKS BEAUTIFUL BUT SAYS NOTHING.......ARE WE ALL IDIOTS ????????

Zumper, you had a typo, it's 7 years she has been in the senate, not three years. Also, I wouldn't say that she's a great speaker, but to each his or her own. I'll tell you what, but the media has been stearing her way for a year and it looks like the voters aren't going for a third term of the clintons.

I see Zogby also seems to think Romney is going to beat McCain. I suspect Gallup and ARG may be more with it this time. We'll see... So far, almost everyone I've spoken with here in the Northwest is supporting Hillary. But we don't vote until the cows come home, chew their cud and give milk (:')