Texas, A Perplexing And Complex State, Is Anybody's Ball Game
Hillary's campaign has over a dozen press secretaries -- in Texas alone. Obama's campaign has 16 field offices in the state. And Texas has an astonishing number of media markets: Twenty in all.
The surprisingly large numbers attest to a political fact that could prove decisive in this election: Texas is a huge and immensely complex state that has both campaigns equally reluctant to predict the outcome next Tuesday.
So what's the state of play in Texas right now? Here's a quick snapshot.
Both sides agree, roughly, on the following: South Texas, with its huge population of Latino voters -- some areas number up to 80 percent Latino -- is a clear Hillary stronghold. A recent poll showed that Hillary leads Obama among Latinos in the state, 66%-27%.
The Obama camp concedes that Hillary has a real advantage among Texas Latinos, due to the ties the Clintons have nurtured with that community over the years. But Obama aides point to an aggressive push for Latinos in the state -- they are running Spanish-language ads around the state and successfully pushed for the Feb. 21st debate to be shown on Univision. Finally, they note that one recent poll shaved her advantage among Texas Latinos considerably after he made a visit to the state.
Meanwhile, Obama has strongholds in cities like Dallas, Austin and Houston, with their large African American populations. Austin is also Obama country because of its liberal population and its University of Texas campus housing some 50,000 students.
In an effort to limit the damage among the younger voters who are flocking to Obama, the Clinton camp dispatched Bill Clinton today to campaign on the UT Austin campus.
Meanwhile, places like Dallas and Fort Worth, with their sprawl and their concentrations of more conservative white Democrats, present a fluid picture. Obama has been closing in the polls in Texas -- the last four public polls show them tied or show each winning, always within a margin of five points -- and his gains appear to be partly fueled by his success among white men, including inroads among the working class voters that are part of Hillary's base.
Both sides say that male Texas Dems are a conservative-leaning breed who appear to be drawn to Obama's trans-partisan emphasis. "In Texas culture, they like their political candidates to be independent, not easily pigeonholed," says an Obama adviser.
Today Hillary released a bread-and-butter populism ad in Texas that stresses her battles on behalf of workers, a spot designed to appeal to her working class supporters (and perhaps to hang on to working class white males who might drift towards Obama).
One-third of the Texas vote is caucuses, which have historically favored Obama, and the Hillary camp says that its success will depend largely on turnout, particularly among women. Hillary's Texas campaign has made a huge push for early voting and has worked hard to energize female voters with a new video campaign called "One in a Million." And Bill Clinton openly says that if Hillary doesn't win Texas she won't win the nomination -- potentially juicing up female turnout by suggesting that a historic opportunity could slip away if they let it.
Ultimately, given the state's complex demographics and tortured primary/caucuses process, neither side dares predict the outcome next week. "With 254 counties, 31 senate districts and 2 time zones," quips Obama Texas spokesperson Joshua Earnest, "anyone who tells you they can predict the outcome of a Democratic primary in Texas is not shooting straight."




















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