An additional area to look for on election day:

The blue-collar white Democrat in mostly in extinct in Texas, with one exception: Refinery Row. The coastal area extending from south Houston, through Baytown and Freeport, and extending to Beaumont and Port Arthur, is still fairly Democratic. Watch these areas to see where this segment goes.

The Texas SOS office has historically been pretty good at getting election returns out. They also do have returns broken down by county. So you can be your own armchair analyst and not have to listen to the network "gurus" spout out their inane pearls of fake wisdom.

"In an effort to limit the damage among the younger voters who are flocking to Obama, the Clinton camp dispatched Bill Clinton today to campaign on the UT Austin campus."

And that, my friends, is why Hillary Clinton is losing this election.

this is EXCELLENT NEWS!!! FOR HILLARY!!!!

One very important factor has been left out of the evaluation. Delegates are apportioned to districts based on their voter turnouts in 2004. The South Texas heavy Latino Districts had a very low voter turnout in 2004, so they have been apportioned a number of delegates based on that figure, rather than how large their voter turnout will be this time. That means that Hillery could carry those districts by a wide margin and not gain very many delegates from the results.

C'mon, what happened to "Tell him to meet me in Texas, we're ready!"?

http://thepersonalispolitical.tumblr.com/post/27343455

There is an Obama office just down the street from my home here in Midtown Houston. Its staff is racially diverse and of all ages and very motivated.

Unfortunately, when I visited on Sunday, they'd run out of yard signs and stickers, which I regret but view as good news. They were particular well-prepared with information on how to maneuver in the complex primary/caucus system here in Texas, and the lady who attended to me encouraged me to explain my personal reasons for supporting Obama to those I would be persuading to also participate in the primary.

I might add that I was outside tying my dog's leash to a post outside when I was spotted from the inside and someone came outside to attend to me.

Ad Absurdum

My brother lives in the Infamous TX22...former Congressthing Tom DeLay..In fact, until he moved to Missouri City several years ago, he'd lived in Sugar Land since 1980

There's an Obama Office open on the Southwest Fwy near US 90

San Francisco For Obama has or will have teams on the ground in Houston (Main Wd3 hq), Austin, El Paso, Dallas, San Antonio and Corpus Christi..those just the one's I have heard of...all told 150 volunteers

The NoCali Field Directors have been in Austin since February 6th and SF volunteers have been sending used buttons and signs to the state

Obama's ground advantage pulls Texas out for him.

Mark it eight, dude.

Excellent analysis. As a life-long Texas Democrat, I think you have things just about right. With one exception. Austin does not have a large African-American population. In fact it has one of the smallest percentage of African-Americans of any of the 20 biggest cities in America. That's a shame, but educated African Americans often find they have to relocate to Dallas or Houston or even Atlanta to have a supportive and vibrant African-American community. We do have a large percentage of liberals however. As the only county to in Texas to vote for John Kerry in 2004, I think Senator Obama can expect to win easily here and with very large numbers. Since convention delegation sizes are determined by past Democratic voting and not on population, Austin and Travis county have a larger delegate total that do Houston or Dallas. Texas, ain't it grand?

Thanks for the analysis, Greg.

All I have to say at this point is this: I really really miss Molly Ivins right about now.

Molly Ivins
RIP

AUSTIN, Texas --- I'd like to make it clear to the people who run the Democratic Party that I will not support Hillary Clinton for president. Enough. Enough triangulation, calculation and equivocation. Enough clever straddling, enough not offending anyone This is not a Dick Morris election. Sen. Clinton is apparently incapable of taking a clear stand on the war in Iraq, and that alone is enough to disqualify her. Her failure to speak out on Terri Schiavo, not to mention that gross pandering on flag-burning, are just contemptible little dodges.

I miss her too
http://www.freepress.org/columns/display/1/2006/1304

This is good analysis. I am also a life-long Texas Democrat. An anecdotal example in Dallas is I work in an office of 26 predominately white and hispanic professionals. All of them are voting for Obama. Even the republicans are voting for Obama. I would say half of this number are going to caucas as well. Many of the older Texas Democrats who remember the days of dominance have taken interest again. The reaction in Texas even from some Democrats to the Clintons is so viceral. We are all looking for the down ballot effect of having Obama at the top of the ticket.

All amazing, fascinating, mind-boggling, I'm running out of words for it. But if what the Texans here are saying is true, if it comes about, it means something way, way bigger than Obamania or Barackapalooza, or anything else about one individual. It is a harbinger some something much more important, something for which November 2006 was only the vanguard.

What it means is, a huge swath of the American population, not Clinton's plurality, but a significant majority will have had enough with the "Reagan Revolutiona," corporatism, and religious fanatics in American Government (not to mention "triangulation," the time for which has come and gone). It means a return to the America and its place in the world as shaped by FDR, Truman, JFK, and LBJ with Republicans as the minority, business-driven party doing just enough to keep the Dems from going completely nuts.

In other words, it will be America as I knew and like it. Who knows; we may even start to wise up to Ike's warnings about the military-industrial complex.

Thank you so much Churchill for correcting that date.

For anyone who really wants to follow this thing, two websites are a must:

1) the Burnt Orange Report -
http://www.burntorangereport.com/frontPage.do

Absolutely the best take on the precinct/primary hybrid we have here in Texas. And it's keeping track of the phenomenal early voting we're seeing here.

2) Paul Burka/Texas monthly -
http://www.texasmonthly.com/blogs/burkablog/index.php

The "Dean of Texas Political Reporting" who has the most influential audience of any blog in the state. And who just became a believer in Obamamania based on those early voting numbers. Comment reading is a must - you're hearing the uncensored voices of state sneators, lobbyists and staff.

I live in far West Texas, which is neither a Hillary stronghold or seemingly a place of great opportunity for Obama. The most conservative part of Texas. The two-party system here is Republicans and Libertarians. Nevertheless, my wife and I and our friends are all attending the precinct convention for Obama and I have a feeling we won't be alone.

The fight looks like its really between whatever Hillary can do south of San Antonio vs what Obama can do in the cities. But the suburbs around Dallas and Houston have seen 1000% and 1200% increases in Dem primary votes. I think these will take Obama over the line and make it a convincing win. For whatever that's worth.....

Here in the neighborhood of Rollingwood in Austin (a small township surrounded by Austin proper, with probably the largest concentration of Republicans in the city), we always have what I call "lawn sign wars." In 2004, one neighbor put up a Bush/Cheney sign. His neighbor immediately put up a Kerry/Edwards sign. Another Bush/Cheney sign went up. Another Kerry/Edwards sign. It was hilarious.

And here in Rollingwood, the only lawn signs I've seen at all are for Obama. Nothing for McCain or Romney or Huckabee or Clinton; only Obama. In one of the most Republican places in Austin. That is enthusiasm, folks.

N.B.: As another poster pointed out, you really need to study Texas demographics a little bit more, Mr. Sargent. Not only does Austin not have very many African-Americans, it's actually below the national average. It's not Iowa or New Hampshire, but it's not exactly a monolithic voting block.

a comparison of the Clinton and Obama ground games in Texas:

Clinton: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mayhill-fowler/ground-report-clinton-ca_b_88313.html

Obama: http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/2/26/122346/110/347/464432

Obama's campaign has at least 3 offices in Austin - downtown, in East Austin (historically black area) and at the corner of the UT campus. He is campaigning hard in Texas, with rallies and town halls in Austin, DFW and tonight at Texas State.

In terms of demographics it is important to understand that the Hispanic population in Texas is much more similar to Arizona and New Mexico and quite different than California. A large percentage of Hispanic voters can trace their roots in Texas back many generations, even to the time when Texas was part of Mexico. Obama tends to do better with non-immigrant Hispanics.

I think Obama wins Texas by 10 points. The leading Democrats in the Texas Legislature have endorsed Obama because they think he will help rebuild the Democratic Party in Texas. Based on early voting they are right.

hmmm.... I will venture a guess... Her Royal Clinton is outta luck one more time.

The media just might be HELPING Hillary on Tuesday by having her DOWN AND OUT ALREADY like they did before New Hampshire.

They need to admit that she COULD pull this off.

So Bill's campaigning at the University of Texas. Oh, THAT'S going to help. The students there were six-years-old or less when he was first elected, and if they have any fond memories of him at all, it's that he taught them what a blow job was just at the time in their lives when it might start to prove useful.

"Six degrees of separation": the theory that any two individuals are connected by a chain of no more than six relationships. E.g. - I have a friend who knows a guy who was a high school friend of Scott McClellen who obviously knows George W. Bush. (Not enough degrees of separation there!)

The joke is referring to the Farrakhan flap. Unless, that is, it's something else that is going over *my* head.

The joke is that there are only up to six degrees of separation from Obama to any bigot, terrorist, demagogue, or otherwise hateful character anywhere in the world. Using Russert Logic (TM), Obama has an obligation to denounce them all. Using Clinton Logic, he needs to reject them as well.

I live in Austin and can attest to a few things.

First, I have many conservative friends who moved here for jobs. They moved here from Oklahoma, Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama.

Every single one of these guys are voting for Obama. I asked them why and here's what they said:

"Well, we can't stand Hillary and we would never EVER want to see her have a chance at the Presidency. Secondly, we really don't like McCain because we don't trust him and think he's crazy. And finally, we think Obama is acting more like a Libertarian. He wants to end the war (just like Ron Paul), he wants to balance the budget (just like Ron Paul), and he's a damn inspiring speaker (just like Ronald Reagan).

So, I ask them if they will vote for him in the general election, and about say definitely yes, and the other half says "maybe."

Anecdotal of course, but very indicative of everything I've been reading on the intertubes.

I think Texas is going for Obama by at least 10 points, because the repbulicans and independents are swinging for Obama big time.

Add in the fact of proportional delegates (ie: south Texas doesn't get as many because they haven't voted for Democrats as much as Austin, Houston, or Dallas have in the last election) and that takes the wind out of Hillary's strength among latinos in the south. Of course, these democratic rules have been in place for years, so the Clinton's camp cries of "foul" have no bearing on reality.

The caucus which accounts for 1/3rd of all the delegates is going to go huge for Obama.

Hillary's toast.

'Nuff said.

Ultimately, given the state's complex demographics and tortured primary/caucuses process, neither side dares predict the outcome next week.

The popular vote is a toss up, but I feel pretty comfortable predicting that Obama will win the delegate count.

The one of a million commercial would be quite good but people who complain a bout plagiarism should not steal concepts like "one of a million" from their opponents. Also the ad ends with let's do this for Hillary. So the campaign is all about saving Hillary?

27 February 2008:

* 419,905 early votes cast in Texas.

* 4 years ago: 72,688

* Houston early voters are up 10-fold

* Dallas County 55,000 early voters

* half are first time voters

* less than 3000 have previous republican history

* Harris County, 3rd largest county in the United States is on pace to break the 2004 tallied votes and that is just the early voters

Obama's event at the Dallas Reunion Arena last week drew over 20,000 - 30,000 people. Some camped-out overnight, others arrived before dawn and the event wasn't even scheduled to begin until 11:30 AM.

Tonight Obama has an event in Tarrant County (Ft. Worth).

Texans are fired-up and ready to go.

BTW: I read yesterday that the number of delegates won will not be known until June.

"... we won't know on primary night who's getting what delegates. Someone may be able to claim victory in the primary vote, but it'll be impossible to truly determine the delegate winner until this Summer when we hold our state convention on June 6-7. I hope that this post will help everyone understand the process, especially those who are planning on participating for the first time this year."

Our quirky democratic Texas voting system is a 3 tier process!!

Read here for details:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/2/8/95310/13683/422/45112

It is complicated and ridiculous!

I've never caucused before, I will do so on 4 March.

We vote, then we caucus. Read about the process ...
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/2/8/95310/13683/422/45112

Forget about instant gratification. ;)