SurveyUSA: Hillary Ahead By Six Points In Ohio Primary
Today's new SurveyUSA poll shows Hillary Clinton's once-enormous lead down to six points, consistent with other polls that have shown this to be a tight race. Here are the numbers, compared to the previous poll from a week ago:
Clinton 50% (-2)
Obama 44% (+1)
The internals show a very noticeable gender gap — Hillary leads 58%-36% among women, while Obama leads 55%-39% among men.
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You guys are aware that's actually a seven-point difference, right?
February 26, 2008 2:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
hee hee heee
good one. But see, they don't figure that's much for the Obama man. Why, he can slap down that 7 before you can say yomamma.
February 26, 2008 8:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
If this keeps up, and it probably will, Obama will win BOTH of her firewalls :P
Haha, bye bye Hillary!
February 26, 2008 2:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
I mis-typed it and then almost immediately put in a correction. The proper version (Obama at 44%) should be live about now.
February 26, 2008 2:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm glad that's the side the error was on, not that the six should've been a seven. :-)
February 26, 2008 2:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Love your photo Eric.
February 26, 2008 2:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Two points:
1) This poll actually looks like good news for Clinton to my eye. If she only lost two points and he only gained one since last week, he is gaining on her less quickly than he was a week ago, which suggests that she might manage to hang on to a narrow lead until next Tues.
2) If I had to choose between enjoying an advantage among women or among men, I know that I would choose women. They are more reliable poll-goers. That said, I guess that I am not giving up hope that Obama can yet reverse some of Clinton's advantage among women.
February 26, 2008 2:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Time will tell.. Tonight is big, as is the rest of the week. I think more campaign silliness like we have seen over the last week will cement an ultimate HRC defeat in Ohio.
February 26, 2008 2:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, that is a good point, and given my natively optimistic nature, I am inclined to be cheered by this insight.
February 26, 2008 2:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Can't agree that anything showing her within 10 points of Obama is good news for her. She could lose Texas, which means it is over for her, although I think she might try to fight until June. A 6 point lead in her firewall's firewall state Ohio makes it look like its curtains for HRC.
February 26, 2008 2:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, there is good news and then there is good news. I agree with you that even if this poll is correct, it is not good enough news. She needs more than just a win in OH by a narrow margin, and it is increasingly apparent that this is the best she can expect. She is not going to win TX and she is not going to win OH by the sort of blow-out margin that she needs. As such, I agree that my original point is sort of irrelevant in precisely the fashion that you describe, but if she was looking for good news of late, I suppose that "I am not losing ground as fast this week as I was last week" is as close as she is going to come to it of late.
February 26, 2008 2:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL Agreed. Unfortunately for her campaign, even the good news isn't good enough.
February 26, 2008 3:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
You and Bill Clinton.
February 26, 2008 2:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Uh oh, this just in mr. bill said that the clintons are going to win ohio. It must be true, all is lost. He has so much credibility you know. Oh no!!!!
February 26, 2008 2:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Given that she needs to win both Texas and Ohio by 30-35 points, I'd say it's a near lock at this point that Hillary's ship will officially sink in the early morning hours of next Wednesday.
February 26, 2008 2:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
"This poll actually looks like good news for Clinton . . . which suggests that she might manage to hang on to a narrow lead until next Tues."
Depends on whether you focus on winning the popular vote or catching up in the delegate count. Although the Clinton campaign would no doubt try to spin a six-point win as a vindication, the truth is it would be more like the end: she cannot come close to catching up in the pledged delegate count with such victories.
And there really isn't any good argument why the remaining unpledged superdelegates would all come out for Clinton now, based on a relatively narrow win in Ohio. Those who wanted to get on the Clinton bandwagon had plenty of opportunity to do so long ago.
February 26, 2008 2:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Rasmussen has Clinton up by only 5 points (48-43):
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/ohio/ohio_democratic_presidential_primary
February 26, 2008 3:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you for sharing that. A good read.
February 26, 2008 3:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
has anyone ever seen 20 point leads evaporate so quickly? TX, Ohio, Vermont and Rhode Island is voting next week tuesday, and if he goes 3-1 Hillary has to bow out...
The only way she stays in after next week tuesday is if she wins both TX and Ohio. To me the margins dont matter, right now she needs the moral ground to stay in this race and if she goes 1-3 she has none...
February 26, 2008 3:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Idiotic, any thoughts on this latest announcement?
February 26, 2008 3:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ohio & Texas are NOT 'just wins.' HRC must win BIG in both. By 20% just to close in on Obama's lead, by 30% to overtake it.
NOT.
GONNA.
HAPPEN.
I find it funny that these states were once talked about as "must win big" but then that changed to, "OH & TX are must wins." Shortly after this new meme, another meme took over in the media: "As long as Hillary hold OH, that might stop Obama's momentum. Then she has her last chance in PA."
At least that's trend in the talk now.
Barack is right. Had he lost 11 straight like Hillary (and lost them as HUGE as she did), the press & the Democratic party would be pushing him to withdraw.
In fact, they'd be demanding it. CNN & FOX would be on it 24/7 on it until he withdrew.
2 Weeks ago HRC needed BLOWOUTS in BOTH STATES to or it was over.
Boy, do the media want to keep her in this for the coverage, or what?
If Obama get 45% or more or the final % in BOTH states, he wins. It's all about the delegates.
Not that it matter now as it looks like he going to take TX by a nice margin and Ohio is on it's way to turning in his favor.
His ground game in both states far exceeds hers.
February 26, 2008 3:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hear what you are saying about the shift in the Clinton campaign's rhetoric on this subject, but in the interest of a more complete portrait of their maneuverings, I would note that Chelsea Clinton was repeating as recently as yesterday that Texas is must win for her mother, and Mark Ambinder is reporting (don't ask me how he knows) that a sizable number of her campaign staffers are prepared to resign en masse on Mar 5 if she does not win in TX.
February 26, 2008 3:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
You know, I think that this represents news for Hillary....but what *kind* of news? WHAT KIND?
If only there were someone here to tell me.
Your thoughts, Idiotic?
February 26, 2008 3:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL. Good one.
February 26, 2008 3:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
DEMOCRATS EAT THEIR YOUNG....
After the years of service Hillary has given to working for the democratic cause, a new younger guy comes along, and they abandon her.
It is her time but there is no loyalty in the democratic party.
At least the republicans do not treat each other this way..
If Obama is nominee, I will vote McCain.
February 26, 2008 3:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Still using your racist sheep illustration I see.
February 26, 2008 5:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Lestatdelc,
Who's the racist? YOU. YOu judge me by my color. You are obsessed with color it seems.
My avatar was chosen as a symbol of my distate for :
1) My contempt for the sheep (sheeple) like following of the Obamamites; and
2) The fact that I am the black sheep of this group (Never heard about the "black sheep" dummy?)
But instead you choose to paint me as a racist. Very interesting and telling. This is typical of you Obamamites. If anyone sais anything against your god, you cry RACIST!
You're a jerk. Grow up.
February 26, 2008 6:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
I missed the diktat that said it is Time for Hillary. I was on the mailing list for the notice on GWB, but not for HRC.
Huh.
February 26, 2008 11:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
I try not to pay too much attention to polls, but here's the thing: If somehow, the current polling actually reflects what will happen on election day (a doubtful assumption, I know), then Obama would win Texas by a few points and Hillary would win Ohio by a 6-8 point margin. Under this scenario, Obama would maintain his delegate lead and her future opportunities to close the gap would be even slimmer. This should lead to increased pressure on her to pull out, though whether she would or not is open to question.
The larger point is that if the polls are accurate, she not only has to stop Obama's momentum but she has to put it significantly in reverse if she's to have any chance of keeping her hope alive (apologies to Jesse Jackson).
February 26, 2008 3:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
RaeK:
What do you mean exactly? She was the unelected wife of a two-term President and then ONE STATE elected her to represent them in the Senate. What exactly does the rest of the country owe her in your opinion?
If Gore hadn't been sandbagged by Monicagate, Travelgate, FBI Filegate, Lincoln bedroom "sales", sketchy Chinese donors, NOT TO MENTION Hillary's failed healthcare push, this country might be an entirely different place right now. What about what we owed HIM? or Biden... or Dodd... or Daschle? How is Hillary owed more than any of these solid Dem politicians?
The last two election cycles have proven that we need to turn the corner on the leadership of this country. I'm old enough to remember when we held a moral high ground and were the model of Democracy on the planet. Seven years later, BUsh has put our standing AND our dollar in the toilet.
We have a primary season so Americans can determine THEIR CHOICE for President. Obama has captured the imagination of the electorate. That's what determines a person's "time" to be President. Not some quasi-dynastic sense of inevitability and entitlement.
If you would REALLY consider "100-years More" McCain over an intelligent, inspirational, unifying and transformational leader like Barack Obama, I have to wonder what kind of progressive you are.
Good luck with that.
February 26, 2008 4:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
@raeK
I think you meant Dem's eat their elderly.
But don't go fooling yourself that the GOP is more loyal. Just look at how McCain's loyalty to Bush in the '04 general is being rewarded by the party faithful right now. Huckabee's still running and Romney might jump back in. Yeah, that's loyalty.
February 26, 2008 4:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Anyone have more information in Ohio? Is there an effective apparatus in Ohio that Clinton gets because of endorsements? Or does each candidate have to build the apparatus for GOTV?
The Ohio results appear to be close and I think will be decided by the GOTV efforts. Any Ohio folks who can report on what they are experiencing would certainly help us out.
Thanks.
February 26, 2008 4:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
The only thing I can share with you was an article I read this morning (I forget where) that apparently Obama had his ground team working in Ohio literally weeks ahead of Hillary. They were out canvassing and lots of the people who showed up for rallies were encouraged to go directly to their polling place to vote early. I read that the Obama team even provided rides to people who needed to get to the polls. Make what you want out of this, but it can turn out to be significant. This kind of ground game may well explain Obama's quick rise in Ohio to close the gap.
February 26, 2008 7:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
LALALALALALA
I can't hear you.
Ohio doesn't count. Too many white men voting. Doesn't count.
February 26, 2008 4:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
"It is her time but there is no loyalty in the democratic party.
At least the republicans do not treat each other this way..
If Obama is nominee, I will vote McCain."
Speaking of McCain, you are aware that the Republicans abandoned him in 2000 when a new younger guy came along, right?
And you're also aware that many prominent Republicans publicly declared their formal non-support of McCain this time around because he hadn't pandered to them as much as they thought he should have, right?
And that one of McCain's supporters stopped the vote counting in Washington state with 13% uncounted and declared his guy the winner so that the other guy (who is a loon but who does have a base of support) would lose momentum, right?
Are you sure that Democrats are the only party to eat their young?
February 26, 2008 4:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sticking with Texas for a moment, why in blazes are people so confident that Obama will win there? I hear it spoken of as a virtual fait accompli. But the SurveyUSA poll released last night shows that the 25% who have already voted in Texas have gone for Hillary 51% to 46%. Someone in here said that this reflects only the "early" voting and is therefore nothing to be concerned about given other positive news for Obama reflected in the same poll. But is that how SurveyUSA explains Hillary's first-quarter win? The data gathering started this Saturday, and the voting started just three days before that. I'm assuming that the data from the early voters is distributed over the entire three days and not concentrated in, say, the first day. In other words, Hillary's win in the early vote doesn't sound so "early" to me. Maybe I don't understand how fast the numbers are changing. I'm not good at statistics and interpreting polls - in fact I'm rotten at them - so would someone please explain to me all the confidence I'm hearing about Obama taking Texas? How much does he have to win of the remaining three-quarters of the vote in order to overcome Clinton's upfront lead of 5% in the first quarter; and is it plausible, obvious, likely (you choose the word) that he will do so given that pretty much all the other polling is shows Texas to be in a dead heat? Put a smiley face on it for me. I'm a nervous old wreck and can't stand the strain.
February 26, 2008 5:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
And it is 5 point difference in another poll.
Rasmussen. 2/25. Likely voters. MoE 3% (2/21 results)
Clinton 48 (48)
Obama 43 (40)
February 26, 2008 5:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Did anyone catch that SurveyUSA said that 12% on their poll already voted. It went 59%-37%.
That's only 12% and with the other 88%, Obama is only behind in Ohio by 3, 48-45!
Factor in that the poll was Saturday through yesterday, not just yesterday. That means that right now that got data of a snapshot from 2 and 3 days ago, not just one. It might even be better for Obama as he's pulling closer to her over time.
February 26, 2008 5:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
What goes up must come down
spinning wheel got to go round
Talking about your troubles it's a crying sin
Ride a painted pony
Let the spinning wheel spin
You got no money, and you, you got no home
Spinning wheel all alone
Talking about your troubles and you, you never learn
Ride a painted pony
let the spinning wheel turn
Did you find a directing sign
on the straight and narrow highway?
Would you mind a reflecting sign
Just let it shine within your mind
And show you the colours that are real
Someone is waiting just for you
spinning wheel is spinning true
Drop all your troubles, by the river side
Catch a painted pony
On the spinning wheel ride
Someone is waiting just for you
spinning wheel is spinning true
Drop all your troubles, by the river side
Ride a painted pony
Let the spinning wheel fly
oh yea!
February 26, 2008 6:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
RaeK -
You know, I'd been thinking Obama was the right candidate for me, but your clever application of Three Dog Night's political philosophy has changed my mind.
But "ride a painted pony"? That's clearly racist.
February 26, 2008 7:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dear "The Beetle":
Oh Good!
oh yea!
February 26, 2008 8:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
The thing about these polls is that Obama's "likely" voters make certain that their ballots are properly and timely cast. Whereas her "likely" voters go to the mall and then see how much energy they have left, if they even remember it's election day.
Look for a solid Obama win in Texas.
February 26, 2008 7:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
give us a Break Raek
The dead beat will not be in TX
February 26, 2008 7:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Julian wrote: The dead beat will not be in TX
Julian:
huh?
February 26, 2008 8:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
why was Hillary in NY speaking? Is she out of money?
February 26, 2008 7:46 PM | Reply | Permalink