Exit polls are hinting at a win, at Fixed Noise, at NRO, and elsewhere, though it only seems the right has access to the polling data.

No word from Drudge.

CBS seems to hint at an Obama victory.

Politico reports, third hand (through Ben Smith), that WI is seeing a blowout.

Reports all over the place on turnout, including a dKos rumor that turnout in Dane County (home of my beloved UW) is extremely LOW.

And a large number of Krazies at dKos (myself included) believe that this one may just be in the bag.

I heard Wolfson was on MSNBC a bit ago, playing with expectations....

Anybody know anything?

Anyone care to lay a bet about how many comments will appear before the subject of this thread is also changed?

This is, actually, a pretty old article (relatively speaking). As I recall, I read this earlier this morning whil ignoring my Evidence professor.

National Review Online: Obama prevails, 60-40, based on the second wave exits.

Fox Exits (up on Halperin's The Page): Obama takes women 51-49%, families under $50k 51-49%, and independents, 63-34%. Clinton squeaks by in union households, 50-49% (but blows him out again among seniors, by 21 points).

So yeah, if that holds up, I'd say it raises a few questions.

Don't you get the sense that Hillary's machine dropped the exit poll numbers?

If we expect a blowout, a slight Hillary win will be most unexpected... a lot of the numbers in the exit polls were on the 49/51 order, which I feel like is a bit of a preparation for us to see a 51/49 hillary win (I hope I'm wrong).

I remember similarly peculiar exit polls from New Jersey, New York, and Mass. on super tuesday...

Hey, before Obama fans start celebrating, here's this little nugget from National Review Online:

Early Exit Polls in Massachusetts: Dems Close, Romney Up Big

My first word of exit poll results says that the first two waves of results in Massachusetts show a "dead heat" between Hillary and Obama, and a 20-point margin for Romney among Republicans.

So.

Is this changing the subject of the thread?

The polls are still open in Wisconsin for two more hours, so please stop with the exit polling crap that might deter some from going out to vote.

Stifle yourselves until the polls are closed. Is that too much to ask for.

Boy if these early exit polls hold and Obama wins by about 10 points.

It will be sweet victory. It's like a elephant walking on the streets and dogs barked all along.

Yeah, I hear you.

On to Ohio and Texas, at least after this go around. I hope BHO upgrades his servers so I can help calling voters.

"I'd say the fact that she can't win any states in the general election is a bigger question we should be asking about her candidacy, but hey, that is just crazy ol' me!"

You are missing the obvious fact that if she doesn't win any states in the general election, then states don't count.

Why are we even talking about exit polls? How many times do we need to get burned? Sigh. I've got a bad feeling, but then again, I always have a bad feeling before an election having been let down way too many times. So whatevs. Go Obama!

Little ones usually reflect what the are hearing their parents say at home.

By Journal Sentinel staff
Tuesday, Feb 19 2008, 05:51 PM

Presidential primary results are in at Nature’s Classroom Montessori school in Mukwonago, where Barack Obama forged ahead as the clear Democratic favorite, with McCain winning the Republican primary.

Elementary school children between the ages of 6 and 12 conducted their own election at the school today, but it’s the culmination of a process that began at the beginning of the semester. The students’ research included trips to both Republican and Democratic headquarters in Waukesha County, discussion in class about the issues and letters home to parents to stimulate discussion with their children about the election, said teacher Shella Schneider.

The minimum voting age was dropped from 18 to 6, and students signed up their classmates, teachers and parents.

Voter turnout was not perfect: 74 people cast ballots out of 82 who were registered.

One voter also tried to vote twice, but luckily, the fraud was caught by the clerks.
The results:John McCain – 18Mike Huckabee – 5

Barack Obama – 35

Hillary Clinton – 12

Dennis Kucinich – 1Ron Paul – 1

Trenton Smith (5-years-old; a write-in) -1

Link?

re: Hillary speaking at 8:30PM
I'm not quite clear bout this. Is it a good thing for her? or does that mean a concession speech like last week?

So I guess the plagiarism thing by our buddy in the ugly sweater didn't quite resonate with Wisconsin voters.

Geez. I'm torn between watching the results come in or American Idol. (2 hr show tonight)

Hmm. What to do...

Rae

http://abcnews.go.com/Video/playerIndex?id=4308238

Watch this video from last night's abc news. on the second half of it you will see clear video evidence of Hillary having stolen John Edwards words from a debate five month's earlier, and she did not credit him with having first said the words.

The link works only with Internet Explorer, and not with Firefox, so you will need to switch to the IE plug in, if you are currently using Firefox.

Hey, wait a minute! What's that HRC quote again?

"It’s about picking a president who relies not just on words – but on work, hard work...."

Do you think she may have appropriated GWB's lines from the Bush/Kerrey debates? Well, let's just go ahead and take a look-see, shall we?

1. "We're making progress. It is hard work."

2. "It is hard work to go from a tyranny to a democracy."

3. "Yes, we're getting the job done. It's hard work."

Bush actually used the phrase 11 times, but you get the idea. Quick, someone alert the media! Hillary plagiarized from Dubya, and didn't even give the guy credit.

I'm heading home to watch the returns. Hello, Wisconsin!

Does anyone know why Michelle Obama is making jokes at the expense of John Edwards, a man who has added immeasurable substance and class to the national debate.

http://www.nypost.com/seven/02192008/gossip/cindy/sometimes_you_get_reel_lucky_98232.htm?page=2

Well it apparently isn't another blow out.

CNN just said its going to be a long night.

Translation: Too close to call?

Rae

Funny thing. The older you get, the more value you place on "experience," whether real or presumed, and the less you put on anything else. The most fascinating break to me is the one between 50 - 65 demographic and the 65 and over.

I doubt there's ever been a time in history when 60 year olds had less in common with 70 year olds when it came to life experience and general outlook on the world. When they were young, Today's 60 year olds were forming communes and worrying about that brown acid they ate at Woodstock, where today's 70 year olds were worrying about Sputnik and Eisenhower's health.

What the hell. Let us post it for all to read.

Clinton Lies About Plagiarism Attack [Updated]

2 hours, 17 minutes ago

The Nation -- Hillary Clinton flatly denied that her campaign was attacking Barack Obama for using the words of another politician, telling reporters on Tuesday that her campaign had not made the charge. The Chicago Tribune reported her remarks from an interview with KITV in Honolulu on Tuesday:

"Look, it's not us making this charge. It's the media. You know, the media is finally examining my opponent which I think is important because we're trying to pick a president, someone for the toughest job in the world [...] So, I think the media is going to be putting forth whatever facts and information it has for voters to assess on their own."

Obama Campaign spokseman Bill Burton shot back on Tuesday evening. "Senator Clinton knows full well that her campaign held a conference call with reporters to fan these flames and the fact that she suggested her campaign had nothing to do with it is exactly the kind of evasive tactic voters are rejecting," he said in a statement.

Clinton's claim is demonstrably false. Her campaign has aggressively and openly pushed the plagiarism attack, including a national conference call by senior campaign aides on Monday. Her aides also circulated a YouTube clip comparing footage of Obama and Gov. Deval Patrick.

Initially, Clinton operatives apparently did attempt to conceal their involvement. The first New York Times article about the clip reported:

The similarities from a passage of Mr. Obama's speech on Saturday and in remarks that Mr. Patrick delivered on Oct. 15, 2006, were highlighted by a rival campaign that did not want to be identified. Clips of both speeches are archived on the Web site YouTube.com.

Yet by Monday morning, Clinton Communications Director Howard Wolfson and Rep. Jim McGovern openly made the plagiarism attack on the conference call, while the campaign openly distributed the YouTube clip without requesting to only be identified as a "rival campaign." The story has now dominated campaign coverage for two days, so Hillary Clinton is obviously aware that her campaign is making the charge.

The Clinton Campaign's attack on Obama's use of the line "just words" was widely panned as a baseless and desperate ploy. Her cover-up might go over even worse.

Update 2: The AP reports that Clinton's claim is "disingenuous":

Clinton Fingerprints on Plagiarism Flap

Hillary Rodham Clinton says reporters, not her campaign, uncovered evidence of Democratic rival Barack Obama sharing speech lines with Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick.

She made the claim Tuesday despite the fact her campaign posted video clips on YouTube illustrating similarities in the speeches and has suggested in several instances that the shared lines amount to plagiarism.

THE SPIN: "It's not us making this charge, it's the media," Clinton told Honolulu television station KITV Tuesday. "The media is finally examining my opponent which I think is important. We're trying to pick a president, someone for the toughest job in the world."

She added: "I think the media is going to be putting forth whatever facts and information it has for voters to assess on their own."

In an interview with another Honolulu station, KGMB, Clinton noted that Obama and Patrick share a strategist, David Axelrod, "who is apparently putting words in both of their mouths."

She added: "I think that's a serious concern."

FACT CHECK: Any suggestion that the story had a life of its own, apart from the Clinton campaign, is disingenuous....

(First) Update: The Politico reports on Clinton's false assertion, though the article avoids directly labeling it false:

Clinton, in remarks to the ABC affiliate in Honolulu that were reported by the Chicago Tribune, asserted: "Look, it's not us making this charge. It's the media."

But on Monday, the Clinton campaign announced a conference call "to discuss a recent speech delivered by Sen. Obama" and included a YouTube link that showed Obama remarks side by side with similar comments by his friend, Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick.

On the call, Howard Wolfson, the campaign's communications director, said: "When an author plagiarizes from another author there is damage done to two different parties. One is to the person he plagiarized from. The other is to the reader."

I'm not so sure how tailor-made for Hillary, this state is.

Because there are a number of very large college campuses around the state. And not just in Madison and Milwaukee (where campus turnout has been very high). But also in more rural areas - campuses with 6000 or 8000 or 10,000 students. Which had often been ignored - until Nov 2006 when students came out in force to oppose the anti-same-sex-marriage amendment. (The amendment passed - but quite a few incumbent republican assembly & senators were defeated, largely on the strength of the student vote). It's also something that seems to have been pretty much ignored by all media, MSM and otherwise.

Since that's Obama territory, the question to me is - what's turnout in places like UW -Eau Claire, or UW -Platteville, or UW -Whitewater? (or LaCrosse, Stevens Point, Oshkosh, etc etc). If it's high on those campuses, that suggests a likely trend towards Obama.

i am so nervous...the clintons are like vampires in those horror movies, whenever you think their dead, their not...

9:11 pm....race too early too call.

NBC Exit Polls indicate Senator Obama has a "Substantial Lead" in Wisconsin.

NBC News said the Democratic contest between Sen. Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton was too early to call. Its analysis of data from surveys of voters as they exited polling places indicated, however, that Obama had a substantial lead in Wisconsin, which offered 74 national convention delegates and an early test of support in industrial states like Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Yep Obama wins MSNBC projects

And... they called it for Obama

BREAKING NEWS!!

Bill Clinton campaigning for Obama: "Experience doesn't matter that much" -he says.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZbHiw2jlwa4

Enjoy!

Finally, I can say now- Fuck media leakings, Fuck Negative Attacks and Fuck Last Minute Mailers- Obama Wins!!!!

Well said, kash79 -- I am so very, very happy to see those "techniques" finally lose their power. You'll never convince me that that isn't what happened in New Hampshire - all the last minute stuff including those damn, lying &^%$#@$% mailers. Thank goodness!! --- In my bones, I feel like this is the most important one. Now just to hope for a large margin.....