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Report: Obama's Internal Polling Shows Lead In Wisconsin

Obama campaign manager David Plouffe worked hard to depress expectations for Wisconsin on a conference call today, but it appears that the campaign's internal polling shows that he has a decent lead in the state, 53%-46%.

Of course, that was last week, before Hillary abruptly scheduled new stops in the states and upped her ad buys.

Late Update: It appears that The Wall Street Journal was actually referring to projections, not polls.



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Well, to all my fellow Obama supporters, hope for the best and expect the worst.

IT ain't over yet.

Obama supporters, we're down by twenty points with a few hours to go.

Barack is ALWAYS THE UNDERDOG until he's sitting in the White House.

ALWAYS!

A 5-7 point lead is not all that comfortable; it can easily be overcome.

I'm going to be phonebanking into Wisconsin, trying to get every vote out.

Maybe I am being a little too confident in the Obama campaign but a 52-47 margin in HAwaii sounds weird to me. Could it be another fake "leak" of the "delegate projection" kind (remember that chart that every media mentioned to point out how "better-than-expected" the five-state weekend turned out to be for him) that only serves as lowering expectations so that the real result looks better than expected ?

I am from Hawaii though I live in NY now. The stranglehold of the Democratic machine led by Sen. Dan Inouye is formidable, and they are for Clinton. There are many political debts to be repaid, and they are not going to be deserting Billary without a fight. Obama is a new kid on the block and his following is among the young. So I am not surprised if the polls are close. At the same time I would also not bew surprised by a big win by Obama. I mean how can the young not be motivated by the chance of having the next president come from Hawaii?

Inouye has been fossilized into his seat in the senate.

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Regardless of what happens in Wisconsin, it's nearly impossible for Clinton to win the pledged delegate count (especially with Texas looking like it does). If you want to help make sure that means a win for Obama, sign MoveOn's petition against superdels making the decision for us and join a Facebook group. This one must be the decision of the voters. We've all seen Congress make policy decisions, don't let them make this decision, too.

This morning I got an email from David Plouffe, Obama's campaign manager asking me if I would write a letter to the superdelegates expressing my views on the role I think the supes should be playing at the convention. The web page to write this letter if anyone here wishes to do it is here:

http://my.barackobama.com/superdelegates

I did respond, and wrote the following letter.

Dear Superdelegate(s) to the 2008 Democratic convention:

This year we have an opportunity to bring transformative change to help the country restore its mission to ensure "Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness" to all its citizens. After eight years of George Bush, the electorate hungers for a leader that will take us out of our despondency with the war in Iraq, with chronic poverty in this country, rising prices, and lowering job expectations.

At this time of perilous need, we are so fortunate to have among us two candidates who can take us out of our despondency towards a brighter future. However, there is a dark cloud on the political horizon, and that brings me to the role of the superdelegates. This primary will be a very close one, so there is a real possibility that the superdelegates will be the determining factor as to who is our nominee.

It would be a major tragedy to not only the Democratic party but to the country if the will of the electorate emerging from the primary process is ignored for the sake of political expediency, and the nomination is given to the candidate who actually comes into the convention with fewer delegates. All the many millions of young voters who have the impression that they have found a political home in the Democratic party will be extremely disillusioned, and may leave the party, or worse, go to the opposite side.

As a lifelong Democrat, I send this message with an urgent plea that you put aside personal political calculus, and cast a vote that will ensure ordinary Democrats and the people at large that yes, we as Democrats do stand for elections that honor the voice of the people.

Thank you,

(my name)
New York, NY

the numbers match the leaked spreadsheet.
so far, all the numbers in the spreadsheet have been conservative.

Hillary loses Minnesota to McCain too...Minnesota!! WTF? And this is BEFORE the Republicans turn out in record numbers! Why the hell are Hillary supporters still trying to get her nominated? Are every single one of them Republican plants or what??

Wake up idiots!!

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Get out and vote!!!! Ignore the polls, they are promoting the corporate establishment. Get out and vote!!!!!!!!

Off topic--having just heard Carville on CNN saying "we don't know, who knows what else is out there, perhaps there is a pattern..." with regards to the "plagiarism" attack, let me just say ... I'm outta here, I will never vote for a Clinton for anything, especially not this fall, if it should come to that.

And as the other poll released today shows, no one beats McCain in Florida. I'm from there, its a predominantly Republican state, and a lot of the Dems/Independents there are squarely in McCains age demographic.
Clinton's argument that she won the primary won't mean all that much if she can't recreate that win in November.

So Plouffe's internal polls show Obama winning, and here he says that it is a tough slog.

OMIGOD this is as bad as Mark Penn! We had better write a dozen posts on his dishonesty and the Obama campaign's desperation!

Well it is a tough slog. Day to day they never know what piece of pasta the Clinton campaign is going to throw against the wall to see if it sticks.

spagheeeetti!!!spagheeeeti!!!

By "last week," isn't WSJ referring to that Obama campaign spreadsheet that made the rounds? The one released by Bloomberg?

I checked, the numbers are exactly the same. WSJ is citing that ridiculous spreadsheet.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0208/Obamas_projections.html

Mrs Bill Clinton is still running TV spots in Wisconsin, this evening, demanding that Senator Obama meet her for a debate last Friday.

How would that work. Have the Clintons got their hands on The Way Back Machine?

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Too funny. Ready to lead from day one. And she can't even run a campaign? Too funny.

Those aren't polling numbers, they're projections by the campaign, based perhaps on some old data and their general gut feelings. I wouldn't put too much stock in them.

This "internal" Obama polling's been public knowledge for nearly two weeks


Bloomberg, I believe, first published the "accidental attachment", a spreadsheet attached to Plouffe post-SuperTuesday briefing memo, on 2/7 or thereabouts

The sheet contains Obama internal polling(?) for all remaining states thru Puerto Rico and allocates delegates to results.


I have it up as wallpaper

Ricosuave...

It would be as bad as Mark Penn if they said 'We expect to win by about 7 points, but, if we don't, obviously Wisconsin doesn't matter.'

24 hours 'til we learn Hillary's latest excuse.

Ready to Lead Starting on the Day Before Yesterday!

My favorite anecdote of the day is the kicker quote of a Sunday Times (of London) story:

Jason Altmire, a Pennsylvania congressman, said he remained on the fence for now – but was wondering whether he had a “moral obligation” to let voters know his preferred candidate.

Obama began calling Altmire in July, when he was 20 points behind in the polls. In November, Altmire had a long chat with Obama’s wife, Michelle, who outlined their strategy for victory and sent him a handwritten follow-up note afterwards.

At that stage there was no indication that the Pennsylvania primary – coming so late in the schedule – or his own vote as a superdelegate would matter, but Obama was already planning for the long game.

“They were really touching all the right bases,” Altmire said.

As yet he has not heard anything from the Clintons. Told of the congressman’s story, a spokesman for Clinton asked which state Altmire was from, expecting it to be an early-voting one.

“Pennsylvania? Oh, that is good,” he replied, looking taken aback.

That the Clinton folks haven't reached out to a Congressman from Pennsylvania is bad news. But that a Clinton spokesman was stupid enough to ask the reporter where Altmire was from, confirming that he hasn't a clue who he is, is even worse. If I were Altmire, that would cinch the deal right there. I expect we'll see an endorsement well before the Penna. primary. And it will, once again, have to do with the most under-reported story of the cycle - the fact that the Obama campaign has just plan outorganized the Clinton folks. Lofty rhetoric is only half the story here - Obama has either managed a better campaign, or selected a better team to manage it on his behalf. And that speaks volumes.

I don't think you can trust your source on this. The source cites "internal projections" which happen to match the projections from the spreadsheet the campaign leaked two weeks ago. No new information here, I suspect.

I watched Carville and his obvious hypcorisy was sickening: "it's a whole paragraph." Please. is everyone who quotes MLK a plagiarist? Plagiarism is stealing original words and thoughts and presenting them as your own. Obama did nothing of the sort and Carville knows it, hence his Uriah Heep-ish demeanor.

I was for Edwards and wasn't wild about Clinton being in the lead, but would have been fine with her as president until I heard Obama's Iowa speech and then Bill Clinton went off the rails and the Clinton campaign started acting desperate and stupid. This new ploy about the so-called plagiarism is crass and idiotic and my respect for the Clintons continues to plummet.

BREAKING: Obama, Muslin drug-dealer, plagiarized kindergarten essay on presidential ambitions.

Derails to follow.

I live in Wisconsin. Tonight, I got a robocall from the Clinton campaign- totally negative on Obama, on Social Security. Said Obama will raise the retirement age and cut benefits. Vote for Hillary or your SS will be cut. Authorized and paid for by the Clinton campaign. This is something the Republicans would do.

They used this robocall around Super Tuesday, is that the one you got sounded like?

""WOMAN: This is Ann calling on behalf of Hillary Clinton for President. Hillary Clinton has been a tireless fighter for seniors [unintelligible]. Barack Obama has said when it comes to Social Security all options should be put on the table. That includes raising the retirement age and cutting benefits. He has even proposed raising Social Security taxes by a trillion dollars. Hillary Clinton stood up to Bush’s plan to privatize Social Security and is against raising the retirement age. When you go to the polls tomorrow cast your vote for the Democrat committed to protecting Social Security as we know it: Hillary Clinton.""

That's disgusting.

michelle obama today in milwaukee

"for the first time since ive been an adult i am proud of this country"...................wheres the outrage at this statement???????????

Because this is the full quote, ""What we have learned over this year is that hope is making a comeback. It is making a comeback. And let me tell you something -- for the first time in my adult lifetime, I am really proud of my country. And not just because Barack has done well, but because I think people are hungry for change. And I have been desperate to see our country moving in that direction and just not feeling so alone in my frustration and disappointment. I've seen people who are hungry to be unified around some basic common issues, and it's made me proud.""

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Thanks for the full quote. Excellent statement by Michelle Obama. BTW, I didn't see a problem with Zumpie's cut off of the quote in the first place. I can wholeheartedly agree that for the first time in, what, 40 plus years, I am proud of this country. It's been a long, dark nightmare, but I really get the feeling that maybe, just maybe, we may be coming out of it. USA, USA, USA, remember that cheer. I just get that same feeling.

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I can see where this is coming from. Michelle Obama turned 18 in 1982, early in the Reagan-Bush I era. Clinton was elected in 1992, but by 1994 we had the Republicans in control of Congress, beginning the destructive partisanship that culminated the bogus Clinton impeachment hearings, and President Clinton's embarassing actions and lies. And then we got W.

We voters are not stupid, or are we?

Can we all not see that Hillary is for Hillary and that her motivation is for herself and not for the country? Her motivation to help the country is driven by power, dominance and control rather than service, help and sincere and honest compassion!

Do these Hillary supporters not see that?

Three reasons why Hillary is not winning:

1.) Her real character of power, manipulation, and divisiveness is shining through. How she has ran her campaign is an indication of how she will run the country. Remember the situation with her daughter from the comment of the MSNBC reporter? She wanted more than blood but also vindication. This showed to me not only a lack of forgiveness and tolerance but a welding of power, revenge and dominance. She would have done much more for herself by just giving the reporter a pass or settling the manner privately and in consideration. However that takes character and that is her problem she is void of character. The problem the Clinton campaign strategists cannot solve is Hillary not Obama.

2.) Obama is a good person. Attacks do not work well with a good person. Also when you attack someone you only reveal something about yourself. In essence you are attacking yourself. Every attack and criticism she gives Obama could also be given to herself to some degree. Barack is a family man with an outstanding wife and can connect with the common person because he is the success story of the common person, the American dream! Bill hurts Hillary and also hurts the sacred office of President of the United States with his behavior and dramatic productions for the camera. A President or past President cannot act in that manner. The office of President is the ideological pinnacle to which Americans look up to. That office cannot be tainted, which Bill Clinton did as President and is doing now. Conversely Michelle is an asset to Barack and is an example of the ordinary person being the extraordinary person.

3.) He is an excellent communicator. We are finding out from this election and elections in the past that Americans respond to communicators. Remember Ronald Reagan as the great communicator and Martin Luther King. Leaders do not have to necessarily have to have all the answers because good ideas and the great ideas come from a synergy of many people inspired to a common goal. What makes leaders is their ability to inspire, bring people together not apart and motivate people to dream of something great and better yet be something great! Great men and women start with dreams and expectations or hope of fulfilling that dream. Obama has inspired me to simply expect more from myself and aspire to something great. That is an example of leadership.

This latest example of Hillary on plagiarism is only example of one thing her character. It is low, desperate and reveals a woman who has been a master of deceiving almost half of the country of who she really is!

However it is all okay. I am a staunch conservation and Republican. We as Republicans will become very united if Hillary is the nominee.

So please do all that you can to elect her. You Democrats will blow the best chance you have had to take the White House in the last decade.

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That reminds me of people who have been saying 'wait until the GE when republicans will come up with something horrible in Obama's past that will kill his chances of winning'

If there was such a thing, would Hillary's people be wasting their time trying to promote this silly plagiarism nonsense? I don't think so.

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Me too! Finally people are getting off their asses and voting in record numbers. Finally our young people are taking an interest in our government! I agree with her wholeheartedly.

You want outrage? I'm outraged at anyone who thinks more people and especially more young people participating in our democracy is a bad thing. People like that should not be allowed to run for public office.

With the recent ARG poll showing a huge shift, 16 points, to Obama, I think that tomorrow bodes pretty well for Obama. It will be very interesting when it comes to my great state of Ohio. I think Hillary is going to try and destroy Obama, and that the party establishment will step in some way shape or form to provide backing to Obama.

By the way, he is going to win Texas delegates and the Ohio popular vote. Ohio is not as blue collar as people think. We have shifted, even where I live near the border with Michigan(our economy used to be automotive based), to an information and service economy. Ohio is a lot more fertile to Obama than people realize, because of this, you see the Clintons starting to talk about June instead of Ohio being the firewall. She isn't going to get the margins here or in Texas that they first said they would after the drubbing she took in the Potomac Primary. At worst for Obama, the delegates will be a draw.

Any scenario then, for a Hillary Clinton nomination, is ugly for the democratic party. They really got themselves in a bind by not preparing for February 6th.

http://www.politicalinaction.com

That was a well worded and thoughtful letter. I have not sent mine yet. I guess I need to rethink my "go with the popular vote or else you hacks!" Anyway, well done.

Wisconson is not N.H. as Joe Scarborough is trying to fakely paint the MSNBC headline this morning. I believe this Midwest state will reflect thte feelings of its neighbors Minnesota, Illinois.

The Midwest is not Hillary country people!

Maybe it's just me, but I'm a little worried about Wisconsin. I kind of feel like the Clintons sense an opportunity here. I don't admire them like I used to, but I still don't underestimate their raw political prowess.

Joe Scarborough was really drunk this morning.

Obama will win Wisconsin today with 57% to 43% for Hillary.

For the record, I had my prediction before the trash ARG released their poll here's the link http://www.pollster.com/blogs/poll_ppp_d_wisconsin_1.php

Now let's talk a bit about ARG. Why in the world people still talk about this poll? The pollster is a charlatan that come up with cooked numbers everyday. Last night with their latest released, I hope we stop citing this trash and call them for what they are. ARG showed a 16% shift in favor of Obama in one day. What's the major event that caused such a shift?? Here's what one blogger over at dailykos think of ARG:

ARG is not a pollster

It's a team of blindfolded monkeys on crack throwing feces at a number chart.

Looks like the monkeys hit Clinton's numbers today


I couldn't agree more,lol

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