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Republicans Gearing Up To Attack Obama

After spending at least the past year planning on how they'd run against Hillary Clinton in 2008, Republican operatives are now busy putting together a plan of attack against Barack Obama now that he's currently out front for the Democrats.

Among their points against him, according to a plan laid out at an RNC retreat:

He is not ready to be commander in chief.

Taking a page from the Hillary Clinton campaign, he had a "pattern of voting 'present'" in the Illinois legislature.

The Republicans "can be confident in a campaign about issues," seemingly in contrast to his mere rhetoric.

He is inexperienced.

"Forgetting who will be the easiest to beat," said Rep. Ken Calvert (R-CA), "I've got to tell you, a President Hillary doesn't scare me nearly as much as a President Obama."


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"Forgetting who will be the easiest to beat," said Rep. Ken Calvert (R-CA), "I've got to tell you, a President Hillary doesn't scare me nearly as much as a President Obama."

Ken Calvert? The same guy that was once named one of the "22 most corrupt members of Congress"?(http://www.beyonddelay.org/summaries/calvert.php)
His "fear" of Obama seems as natural as an oral bowel movement..

I have no doubts that John McCain will be a formidible candidate, but, as usual, Republicans can't see the big picture. They're old, arrogant bereft of any ideas, and more interested in maintaining division than actually working for the common good of the nation. If that's all they got against Obama, President-Elect Obama will be making his victory speech very early on Election Night.

I'm curious as to why you label only one of those talking points as "a page from the Hillary Clinton campaign".

You've just described the Hillary Clinton campaign.

In fact, now that I think about it a little more, I'm actually surprised that the Republicans apparently didn't come up with the plan of randomly blurting out "REZKO!".

Which would also be a page from the Hillary Clinton campaign.

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Well, I guess its a good thing that the republicans plan on using the same tactics as the clintons. We all see where that got the clintons. Way too funny, I say bring it on.

So basically they're going to run a repeat of Hillary Clinton's campaign. Good luck with that.

I'm not sure what issues they can be confident on. McCain is out of step with the American people on every major issue.

"I'm not sure what issues they can be confident on. McCain is out of step with the American people on every major issue."

That's never been a problem for them before, and I think you've misinterpreted their strategy.

Their MO is, and has been for many years, to say things like "Republicans are strong on (X)", without factually backing that statement up, even when it is in direct contradiction to easily observable facts.

When called on to give an example, they reply "Republicans are strong on (X)", as if that were an example of Republicans being strong on (X).

When a contradictory example is presented to them, they reply "Republicans are strong on (X)", as if that explains away the apparently mistaken belief that the example contradicted the claim that Republicans are strong on (X).

So, now they're saying "Republicans can be confident on the issues".

You seem to be assuming that that means they're going to start listing off some issues that they're strong on.

That's fundamentally incorrect.

When they say that they're going to say "Republicans can be confident on the issues", they mean that they're going to say "Republicans can be confident on the issues".

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Three differences: (1) McCain actually can claim more experience than Obama. (2) McCain is not running from his war vote—whether that will help/hurt him, time will tell. (3) This will be the general election where things such as Obama's war vote won't be quite the same slam dunk as it is in the Democratic primaries.

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If that is the list of Republican attack points, Obama would have a cake walk compared to the baggage Laden Clintons.

It is amusing to see Hillary's "he had a pattern of voting "present' in the Illinois legislature." A more accurate description, as Obama and others knowledgeable have explained, voting "present" is a negotiating strategy intended to protect the life of a bill while adjustments are sought and made.

For anyone concerned like Hillary, there is a good NYT Op-Ed by BNER J. MIKVA (02-16-08) "'Present' Perfect" that's worth a read.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/16/opinion/16mikva.html?scp=2&sq=obama+vote+present&st=nyt

You spelled repugnants wrong... :->

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It looks like they're hoping to get disillusioned Obama-hating Clinton supporters to go with McCain, doesn't it? Can't wait to see MyDD turn into a pro-McCain site after the convention.

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Bill Clinton as the chief strategist for the RNC? Maybe this will work better for McCain than it did for Hillary...

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I am sooo sick about this distortion about the present votes. How many gd votes did clinton miss in the senate? Isn't that just like voting present? The implication concerning the present votes is that it is like not voting at all. Well if you miss votes, its the same thing. How many gd votes did she miss? Same with mccain. Give me a gd break.

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"Forgetting who will be the easiest to beat," said Rep. Ken Calvert (R-CA), "I've got to tell you, a President Hillary doesn't scare me nearly as much as a President Obama."

Yes, because a President Obama means their time is over. They survived the Clintons once - and actually flourished from it - and they know they can do it again. And with Hillary and Bill so beholden to her financial backers they know she won't rock the boat too much. But Obama has the real potential to upend the old guard's rule of things. I bet that truly does scare them.

I guess Mark Penn landed on his feet after all. Good for him!

This is a perfect example of what makes all the Hillaroid conspiracy theorizing about how the Republicans have a secret master plan to trick us into electing Obama because they're more afraid of Hillary by saying they're actually more afraid of Obama.

These guys are about as good at keeping a secret as a bunch of middle schoolers. And its not like they have any reason to try. From the PNAC website where they openly plotted the invasion of Iraq two years before Bush was inauguarted to every "private" dinner of Republican bigwigs that Rove attended with a PowerPoint presentation, From 1998 to 2006, they regularly splashed their secret plans for global domination all over the Internet. All of that information was out there in plain sight and yet Democratic "strategists," from Donna Brazille to Bob Schrum to all the little Beltway consultant firms, refused to believe any of it. Instead, they acted like it was all some big evil Republican mindfrak and refused to even engage in a little contingency planning. Yet another symptom of the Democratic PTSD syndrome that's caused so many Democrats, both apparatchiks and voters, to inflate the "Republican Attack Machine" into some nearly omnipotent force of political might in their heads.

How odd, this thread is about potential Republican attacks against Obama, and yet 75% of the posts are about how much the poster hates Hillary. Revealing.

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Why is it if someone criticizes Hillary they're immediately tagged as "Hillary haters"? What a load of crap. I don't hate her, I just don't want her in the White House.

I didn't write anything hate-filled about her at all. I said she's beholden to her financial backers and won't rock the boat. Others wrote that the Republicans' attacks on Obama would be essentially the same as her campaign's attacks. How is that hatred? Explain, please.

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>Why is it if someone criticizes Hillary they're immediately tagged as "Hillary haters"? What a load of crap.

It's because you posted this:

"Clintons are toxic"

"(Clinton) is lower than any Democratic candidate has sunk since the days of refusing to seat black delegates"

"As the only man in America to nail more women that Bill Clinton I urge you to vote for his wife, Hillary."

"Hillary Loaned Her Campaign $5 Million: Bubba, can you spare a dime? there's a huge difference between the Pre-Chosen One starting out with all the money from the fatcats. The Queen is running out of cash."

Why is it if someone criticizes Hillary they're immediately tagged as "Hillary haters"?

Why not? It works so well for the wingnuts, labeling anyone who criticizes Bush as "hating Bush" or having "Bush Derangement Syndrome".

When the criticism is hitting too close to home, what can you do but try to deflect it? And ad hominem is a time-tested way of doing that.

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How odd, this thread is about potential Republican attacks against Obama, and yet 75% of the posts are about how much the poster hates Hillary.

Uh, no. Only in the addled mind of a Hillbot are the posts about how the poster hates Hillary. What the posts here are actually about is how the Clinton and Republican camps are using the exact same Rovian talking points which should be revealing to the Hillbots, but obviously is not.

No. there can be no substantive criticism of the Inevitable One, no criticism of She To Whom The Nomination Is Due, To Whom We Must All Swear Fealty. Any such, any criticism at all, is prima facie evidence of that strange disorder, "Hillary hate." There can be no substantive criticism of her tactics, her rhetoric, her Rovian fear-mongering, her corporate campaign contributions, including from the military-industrial complex and Big Pharma, her staff, her circle, of the Mark Penns and the James Carvilles and the DLC insiders that surround her, her record, her execrable war votes, of her strange propensity to use Republican talking points to try to tar a fellow Democrat (or several) -- nothing. Because in Hillbot land, any criticism proves you're a "hater" and a sexist to boot.

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What's not yet mentioned explicitly is the clear line of attack that the Republicans will launch against Obama: that he's a far out liberal. McCain has already noted that Obama was ranked as the most liberal Senator in Congress by a non-partisan publication.

Of course, the goal of those attacks would be to drive away all those independents from Obama, who currently don't think of him as an extreme liberal, because it's not of course an issue among Democrats.

It's certainly not obvious how Obama responds to such attacks.

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Since when has the "National Journal" been a "non-partisan publication"? Was there a Presidential Proclamation to that effect that I missed?

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It's a reasonable guess, and one wonders why he isn't already using it. One explanation is he's afraid it would help Obama during the Democratic primaries, and he would much rather run against Hillary.

However, one problem with that strategy is that the liberal brush has also been used to paint McCain.

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McCain has already noted that Obama was ranked as the most liberal Senator in Congress by a non-partisan publication.

Yeah, by the National Journal, which conveniently ranked John Kerry the Most Liberal Senator in 2004.

That's right. Obama and Kerry are more liberal than Russ Feingold. Obama is more liberal than Bernie Sanders. Kerry was more liberal than Paul Wellstone of blessed memory. Both are more liberal than Ted Kennedy. Riiiiight.

You want to believe that, go right ahead. Just make sure to put an (R) after your voter registration, where it belongs.

Yes, I agree with those who are not particularly impressed or frightened by the Republican strategy. I wonder, though, if this represents only the first of a two pronged strategy, the second half of which would rely on PAC and 527 groups to smear Obama's time overseas (i.e. he's a Muslim), his membership in a Black Church (i.e. he's a racist), his purchase of land from Rezko's wife (i.e. he's corrupt). So, basically, you distract voters and put Obama on the defensive with a whole bunch of this stuff, and then you present your guy, McCain, as a normal, everyday, "issues-oriented" American hero.

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The old republican playbook: talk about how the opposition makes you feel, using words like "fear", "scary", "angry". Just by saying these words, their constituents go into sympathetic overdrive, and feel fear, fear, fear too.

1) is easily overcome by Obama, he's already done it.

2) is a non-issue and easily explained as such.

3) "experience and wonkery versus change" doesn't seem to be working very well thus far...

4) essentially (1). very easily circumvented, he's been doing it since the campaign started.


wow, the much vaunted Republican Attack Machine looks nearly as lame as the much vaunted Clinton Machine. they cannot win against Obama with this game plan in the fall.

The GOP rightly fears an Obama presidency -- an Obama presidency makes 2008 equivalent to 1932... whereas a HRC presidency makes 2008 equivalent to 2000...

Personally, I'd prefer the 1932 option as I'd like nothing more than see the GOP returned to irrelevancy for 40 years.

FDR destroyed the GOP; GWB ressurected the Democratic party. A HRC presidence will ressurect the GOP.

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Just like the first two terms of the clintons resurrected the GOP from 40 years in the political wasteland of the minority in congress. It took a gd stupid war based on lies and hundreds of thousands of dead iraqis and americans to get the dem party back in power. Another term of the clintons will send the dems right back into political obscurity. Just look at history. Please wake up people.

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Rejection by large numbers of Democrats of a Hillary or Obama nomination was the major risk, and I believe, the result of the Bush-Rove-style mean-spirited, divisive, destructive Clinton campaign.

That said, I also believe that ending the Bush-Clinton decades-long domination of our government is the most important challenge facing the nation in 2008. I am an enthusiastic supporter of Obama (as I would have been for any of the other Democratic candidates). But I can never vote for Mrs. Bill Clinton.

Obama is the Republicans worst match-up against McCain.

It's Hope vs. Cynicism.

It's Peaces vs. War.

It's Change vs. Bush II

This is going to be Bob Dole all over again...

Like I've said from the beginning, Hillary's attacks against Obama were basically handing over ammo to the Republicans, whereas Obama's attacks against Hillary couldn't be used against her in the general election (she is still a better agent of change than McCain).

Hillary of course didn't care that she has spent months trashing the possible nominee from her own party, because she doesn't care at all about the party, or anything else for that matter, except her own power.

Luckily Obama can handle this, so I'm not worried. I'm just pissed at how despicable and short sighted Hillary is. But hey, she has been borrowing talking points and tactics from the Republicans the whole campaign, it is only fitting that they would borrow back.

The GOP will use 527 groups to try to take Obama down. They will use every nasty thing you can conjure up.

However, I do believe that by this time most Americans have been inoculated against this crap. No one has forgotten 2000 and 2004, and swift-boating has become part of the vernacular.

I believe that +60% of voters would find 527 stories just one more reason to vote democratic.

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This is, of course, no surprise to anyone who has been paying attention. The Republicans have only one strategy and that is to beat whoever the nominee is. They don't care about building a platform that means anything because their's doesn't. They will degrade the campaign to any point no matter how low in order to win. If anyone doubt thia all they need do is look at the record of the past 12 Presidential campaigns. It's quite clear.

It is of little consequence and is foolishly naive to think that because Hillary has brought up some of Obama's obvious weaknesses and vulnerabilities as a candidate that the GOP is lifting them from her. I don't support her, but she isn't to blame for that. If anyone is to blame for these vulnerabilities it is Obama himself. And the vulnerabilities mentioned in this post are not the only targets the Republicans will aim for. There are plenty of others---most of which have been off limits during the primaries because the Democrats are not nearly as foul as the Republicans when they are in a contest. What is clear is that while Obama is unsettling to them, he is also a big, fat, juicy target and they are happy to have a go at him in the fall.

Reducing Democratic choices down to two centrist, corporate Democrats like Obama and Clinton was a massive strategic error. The Republicans know it. It's just a pity most Democrats don't realize what they have allowed to happen. We had a chance to have a thundering landslide of a victory in November for Democrats running for the White House on down to dog catcher and we've blown it. Now we have to run with yet another corporate Dem leading us to more stalemate, more "compromise" (aka defeat), and more hardship for regular Americans of all genders, races, and ages. It's a real shame.

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I don't believe Barack Obama will weather serious criticism very well. He really has no experience with being anything other than a media darling. I don't think he'll wear well when they finally turn on him.

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Yeah? And I think you're wrong. So what? Only time will tell but Obama's performance in the last few months gives my take the edge.

To take a sports analogy, and I hate sports analogies, I think Hillary is a like strong player who is not afraid to smash up the middle, hoping to grind out just enough for a first down when they sort out the pile. Obama is more like a fast, agile and slippery running back. You throw the whole offensive line at him and he jukes and runs around the weak side and before you know it he's ten yards into your backfield with a smile on his face.

"It's certainly not obvious how Obama responds to such attacks."

Simple, he doesn't respond to them. He lets other Democrats tear those arguments to pieces. Meanwhile, he wages his own campaign.

Responding to Republican attacks is simply playing into their campaign strategy. It's letting your political enemies determine your own campaign. It's a trap.

Barack Obama is a great campaigner with a great message. What he needs to do is just what he's done during the primary, wage his own campaign his own way. He won't ignore the Republican attacks, of course, but there are plenty of Democratic attack dogs available, if necessary. But he needs to stay above all that. He needs to wage his OWN campaign, not the one Republicans will try to persuade him to follow.

There's a reason they're scared of Barack Obama. They should be!

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He lets other Democrats tear those aguments to pieces? You're kidding right?

Have you ever noticed what happens to our Presidential nominees when the Republicans begin their attacks? "Other Democrats" head for the hills like the wooses they are and they hide in fear. None of them tear any Republican arguments to pieces because they all disappear and then later, after we have lost the White House again, they blame the nominee for not responding to the attacks more quickly and robustly. So, if that's what you're counting on for Obama to survive the fall election it's time to start looking for a plan B cause what you propose is as likely as winning Powerball twice in a row.

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The Rove trick has been to label those who are against George W. Bush's policies and practices "a Bush hater." Supporters of Hillary have labeled those who are against nominating Hillary "Hillary haters." A sorry state of affairs. This reveals something about Hillary's campaign that I don't much like. It borrows too much from Karl Rove's tactics.

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"a President Hillary doesn't scare me nearly as much as a President Obama."

What do Republican fear most about a President Obama? It has nothing to do with foreign or domestic policy. It has to do with the fact that if Obama is elected, the GOP may not worm their way back into the White House for potentially, another 16 years.

Here's another laugh: "The Republicans "can be confident in a campaign about issues,".

Can anyone remember the last time a Republican based his/her campaign on issues? Isn't their weapon of choice always, at least since 1994, been to demonize opponents to distract voters, thus preventing voters from noticing that the Republican's position of the issues would cause voters to vote Democratic? All in all, I'd say the GOP's worst nightmare is that President Obama will force the Republican Party to adopt positions that are more in line with the will of the American people instead of the corporate and special interests the Republicans have been turning tricks for since Dwight Eisenhower.


I think it was Paul Simon who said: "A man sees what he wants to see and disregards the rest." The points against Obama the Republicans are focusing on are going to morph smoothly into what their main attack theme is going to be: Obama hasn't earned the right to be President the way McCain has. They plan to make Obama spell out in energy and charisma-sapping detail how he got to where he is today, and how that life-story prepares him to be CIC. And he will have to spell it out amidst a barrage of invectives from 527s, surrogates and the msm. It will be civil on stage and brutal behind the scenes on both sides.

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Since we got to stare for four days at headline with McCain calling out Obama on the public funds pledge, it would be nice if this NY Times article got a little play too. Especially since the article predates by two days public funding pledge bs by McCain.

"McCain Signs Up a Bush Fund-Raising Organizer."
And the money quotes, pun intended, from the article:

Mr. McCain’s advisers said that the senator’s campaign would also be bestowing titles on its most prolific fund-raisers under an “incentive system,” with privileges for those who raised the most money.

Mr. McCain’s advisers said that the candidate, despite his signature legislative efforts to restrict the money spent on political campaigns, WOULD NOT ACCEPT PUBLIC FINANCING (emphasis mine) and spending limits for this year’s general campaign.

And

Mr. McCain’s advisers insisted that the senator was not turning his back on a campaign finance system, which bans large “soft-money” donations to the political parties, that he helped put in place. “The senator’s always been an advocate of contributions from individual Americans,” said Wayne Berman, a major McCain fund-raiser. “It’s those contributions that are supporting his presidential campaign.”


Huh.

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I see my decaffinated editing skills could use a little work but you get the gist.

The NYT got it wrong and McCain stuck it to them and Obama with one thrust. No one, repeat, no one has opted out of public financing for the general election since 1970. Neither McCain nor Obama will be the first. It's boneheaded for Obama to stall. He's just afraid that when his netroots supporters figure out the money they are giving now would do more good going to 527s, his netroots funding will dry up.

However, I do believe that by this time most Americans have been inoculated against this crap. No one has forgotten 2000 and 2004, and swift-boating has become part of the vernacular.

Yep, it’s now part of the vernacular, especially for political junkies. But, just to take an example, how many people do you know who bought in to the swiftboating of John Kerry?

I know quite a few.

Now, how many to you know who have since seen the error of their way? How many realize or admit or care that they were fooled?
I know zero such people.

How many Hillary Haters would change their mind based upon new evidence? How many Obama Bashers would change their minds?

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But, just to take an example, how many people do you know who bought in to the swiftboating of John Kerry?

Since you're speaking in the past tense there, I want to stress that I know quite a few that still do!

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There is another meme that is being tried out right now: Obama fans are cultists, and there is something sinister in how perfect he seems.

Part of this is intended to appeal to the religious righteous. By making Obama = Jesus allusions (eg, "So we have a New York Senator running for president who was born in Illinois, and an Illinois Senator running for president who was born in a manger"), the strategy is to get fundamentalists worked up about the notion that an impostor is pretending to be the Lord.

The rest of this meme is designed to appeal to the swing voters. Oooh, there is something creepy and fanatical about those Obama supporters, isn't there? So I better avoid them, or I'll look like a cult member. Cults are bad, Obama is a cult, therefore Obama is bad.

I heard a version of this being trotted out on NPR this weekend, on "Wait Wait Don't Tell Me." If an NPR game show is hammering the Obama-Messiah theme, you know it has already made the jump from Republicon focus groups.

The problem is, the current incarnation of the campaign is playing directly into this meme. Obama has avoided giving substantive policy positions because he doesn't want to have any words that can come back to bite him. Instead, we're getting "Change you can believe in" and "Yes we can." In order to stop this charge of cultism, Obama needs to take his wave of personal support and channel it into policy support. When his followers all say "I'm for Obama because he will do X on climate, Y on health care, and Z on the economy," that will stifle talk about people supporting him for his charm and charisma. If he keeps trying to ride "Yes we can" all the way to November, though, then he is wide open to suggestions that his campaign is only for true believers.

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Obama has avoided giving substantive policy positions…

Speaking about tired-out memes, that one has a lot of mileage under the hood! If you want substantive policy positions, you could try listening carefully to some of his longer speeches, or you could just go to his web-site.

Yep, irrefutable talking points to assure success, especially the Commander in Chief part given the incumbent GOP president's successful record.

The GOP continues its strategy to turn Article II on its head. As defined, President is the primary role and Commander in Chief is one responsibility, albeit important, which gives him/her authority over the military, which currently has an enrollment of approx. 3 million people (including reserves, 1.5 million otherwise). They seem to forget there are 297+ million other people in this country.

McCain may have served honorably, and "lead," so he claims the largest squadron in the Navy, but that is by no means a default pass to be a qualified Commander in Chief.

This argument will fail in the general, because only 68% of the GOP's base support the current military strategy, which McCain supports. (sorry, can't cite which poll, just pulling from recent memory.) Unfortunately for them, that's not enough to dominate and guarantee the general election by any means.

And if the list presented is the best they've got, where's the beef? How much weaker can they get when "confident in a campaign about issues" is their third bullet.

TPC says: President is the primary role and Commander in Chief is one responsibility, albeit important, which gives him/her authority over the military, which currently has an enrollment of approx. 3 million people (including reserves, 1.5 million otherwise). They seem to forget there are 297+ million other people in this country.


TPC, I know you mean well, but you might want to think about your post. If you pit 297 million Americans against the 3 million who voluntarily serve in the US military, you are going to call down the thunder. Unfortunately, you just demonstrated the reason the Republicans are confident Obama can't sustain a message. The CIC issue is about who earned the right to use that volunteer force of 3 million to protect America. You owe the US military an apology. Did you serve? It's hard to imagine you could think of a soldier or Marine as just another voter if you did.

Billy Glad - I didn't mean any disrespect or disenfranchisement of the military. My apologies if that's how it came off. And, no, I have not served, therefore I'm not qualified to speak on behalf of the military, which I don't believe I did. I most certainly did not intend to speak on their behalf.

My point was Bush, supported by the GOP, has had an overwhelming propensity over the past seven years to function as the CIC, inappropriately extending presidential powers based on Bush and Co.'s ill-perceived interpretation of the authorities "inherent" to the CIC, and has largely neglected the overall responsibilities of the office of the President. In other words, instead of serving as President, which includes being CIC, Bush has made the office of the President subordinate to the CIC. And as we all know, the office of the President has an obligation to all the people regardless of their military status.

As Susan Jacoby noted on Bill Moyer's Journal last week, there has been an unprecedented and somewhat disturbing trend in recent history to emphasize CIC. Jacoby said, "it's a word that presidents didn't use except in a strictly military sense in the past."

http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/02152008/transcript4.html

It appears to me, the Republicans intend to continue with the ideology and/or doctrine that we are electing a CIC, and not a president.

I know Republicans will resort to whatever tactics necessary to discredit Obama, or any other nominee. Only the most naive would think otherwise. And that must be considered as the primary process moves forward and the Dems develop a strategy for Nov.

With respect to McCain, just because he actively served at a given level, doesn't by default mean he is qualified to be CIC. None of the nominees may be qualified, however some may be better qualified than others, and that's a decision voters will have to make. But if the American electorate bases their decision on who should be president solely on CIC-related factors, that is an extremely myopic and rather dangerous perspective.

Furthermore, earning the right to serve as CIC can be debated from multiple perspectives, even to the extent of what is "earning the right" and is it applicable. Had FDR earned the right when elected to his first term? He previously held the position of Assistant Secretary of the Navy, but had not served (to my knowledge). Eisenhower, was obviously qualified, but had he earned the right?

How much did judgment factor into their successes and failures as president?

Is it not possible to view being elected president more a privilege granted by the voters than it is a right? There is a reason why the Founders provided for civilian control of the military.

Again, I meant no disrespect to anyone in the military. My focus was on ideology, principle, and politics.

I know that, TPC. I was just making the point how hard it is going to be for Obama to deal with this issue. One little botched joke finished John Kerry's bid to represent the Party this year. The troops are still the third rail. Obama is going to be at a tremendous disadvantage on the CIC issue. The apology demand and questions about your service were intended as an imitation of a "patriotic" Republican. I don't for one moment believe you have to have been in the service to be a fierce patriot.

Agreed and understood.

You're right, they will twist, turn, and defy logic in every way possibly, regardless of the merits of their arguments, ethics, or the resulting damaging (even to their own party). It will be anything but a cakewalk.

That said, if the Dems can't win the WH this year, then a serious post-mortem of the Dem Party is in order.

The key phrase in the main page summary was "undisciplined messaging." Aha-- THAT'S the type of racial coding I was waiting for. They are not going to talk about "inexperience" as much as being "undisciplined," like all those Cadillac-driving leeches who take away good money from Nascar dads.

McCain let the SwiftBoaters do their work, and he will let the racist slime ooze from his campaign as well.

Here are just some of the words we will hear starting in June:

undisciplined, flashy (like a pimp, you know), showboat, sneaky, magical (as opposed to real), fiery (like looters), incendiary, uncontrollable, wild (these last two will describe the crowds, but the connection will be clear), effortless and talented (not a hard worker), preternatural (not normal), casual (just a stone's throw from lazy).

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The sad thing is, I can't tell if you're being sarcastic or not…

That's as close as I've heard to an accurate description of where they want to go. Add all the stuff around "earning" the right to be CIC or anything else and you've nailed it. They are going to try to turn his American success story against him. Hell, we tried to do it to Bush. Remember how we went back to his classmates and professors, talked to his guard unit, went after his business career? You can always find someone to trash a candidate. What we have to worry about is what is going to stick with mainstream America? The meme that Obama is shallow might stick. How did Clinton put it? Obama lacks "gravitas."

Unlike arnold, I'm not kidding.

Malangali: I believe Obama is beginning to do this by adding more and more detail to his speeches and positions. That he hasn't done more of this sooner, I would attribute to the fact that he has not had to.

Most candidates will not be more specific than is required. They often get burned when they do.

If Obama thinks Clinton may beat him in some of the upcoming contests, he will become more substantial and possibly less chrismatic.

Billy Glad: As for the likely Republican strategy against Obama, I think you have nailed the most obvious. They will imply a hundred different ways the he hasn't earned the right to be President the way McCain has. Obama will have to attack McCain's record. It will be as rough as usual.

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And attacking McCain's record won't be as hard as Republicans might wish it to be. Heck, even Republicans have attacked McCain's record.

Less jobs, more war is not a winning campaign slogan.

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One thing to remember is that the experience "issue" is one that the votes have very seldom responded to.

You can go all the way back to Lincoln vs. Douglas and find that the votes have more often picked the candidate with less political experience.

Some more recent examples:

FDR over Hoover
Eisenhower over Stevenson
Kennedy over Nixon
Nixon over Humphrey
Carter over Ford
Reagan over Carter
Clinton over Bush (I)
Bush (II) over Gore (for argument's sake I'm assuming a legitimate win here)

One could also make an argument for Dole vs. Clinton and Bush (II) vs. Kerry, but I'll give extra credit for actual experience as president.

I think Senator Obama, should he win the nomination, will match up very well against Senator McCain. Not much has been made of McCain's age, and they won't have to when Obama and McCain stand side by side. It will be the same sort of contrast as Clinton and Dole, or even Kennedy and Nixon (although they were nearly the same age).

I'm sorry. Didn't Kennedy just barely beat Nixon, but about 1/10 of 1% of the popular vote? Go figure. Anyway, I guess knowing what really happened is one of the worst parts of getting old. The Kennedy/Nixon choice was about trust. Not a good analogy if you want to contrast Obama and McCain. And remember, Kennedy and the Kennedys are not sacred cows to the Republicans. They will gladly compare Obama to Jack Kennedy, particularly on the issue of putting an inexperienced politician into the oval office. The first three years of the Kennedy administration were pretty bad. Bay of Pigs, assassination of Diem, Vietnam escalation, McNamara, Bobby as AG, Missile Crisis, putting off introducing civil rights legislation until 1963, putting off confronting racism in the South until 1963. I'm not sure we want to trot Kennedy out.

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Trotting out Kennedy was not my point. My point was that the experience factor has not been nearly as important to voters as those who have the experience think it should be. Nixon's advantage in experience didn't keep voters from voting for Kennedy in 1960, nor in the other examples I provided.

It appears that candidate has to convince the voters that he has a certain level of competence, not that his level of experience is greater than his opponents. Otherwise, Clinton couldn't have won over Bush or Reagan over Carter.

Obviously, it also helps if the voters are unhappy about the direction the country is going. Since on the issues, McCain is virtually promising a George W. Bush third term, that's another factor in favor of the Democratic candidate.

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Look, the attack on Obama's qualifications to be Commander in Chief is going to be infinitely more effective coming out of McCain's camp than it could ever be coming out of Hillary's.

All of the derision of Hillary's experience in foreign policy by the Obama camp is not going to be so easy to transfer to McCain.

And what will Obama say in response to the direct accusation that he's not equipped to take on the role of CIC? I have no idea.

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I agree completely. Of course, the flip side of that argument is that the attacks on Clinton's qualifications would have been just as effective if she were the nominee.

That might be true. The experience issue is a complex one. One of the reasons that the Clinton presidency is a two-edged sword, is that our experience isn't limited to what we've done, it includes what we've seen. Undeniably, and for better or worse, Senator Clinton has been involved in the world in a way that Senator Obama has not. She has seen things, met people, witnessed the consequences of actions Presidents take from a viewpoint he's not had. In a matchup with McCain she can compare Kosovo to Iraq. She can argue that her determination to err on the side of the safety of the American people is as steadfast as anyone's. She can compare what the Republicans were saying about Somalia to what they are saying about Iraq. She is bulletproof on Iran. There may be many reasons to reject Hillary Clinton, but that she won't match up better with McCain on the CIC issues is not one of them. As a matter of fact, Obama has already given up the high ground on ending the Iraqi occupation by saying that as CIC he will let events on the ground dictate his withdrawal schedule. And, incredibly, he as said that the kind of events that might make him delay our withdrawal include an increase in sectarian violence. An increase. That means he will withdraw only if the surge keeps working and we keep winning. If things get worse, he might decided to stay. If I were a Republican I would be salivating at the thought of you putting Obama up against old John McCain.

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If I accept all of your points, then the logical conclusion is that Obama won't fare any worse against McCain than Clinton.

If you disagree with that conclusion, why do you think he's faring better against Clinton on this issue than you anticipate he will against McCain?

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I just realized that the first sentence could be read two ways. What I mean to say is that: If I accept all of your points, then the logical conclusion is that Obama won't fare any worse against McCain than he has against Clinton.

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the groundwork for the swiftboating of obama will be done with hte uncontested repetition of the talk radio monopoly. if obamans or clinto supporters really want to defend their candidates they may want to exercise their free speech rights by waving signs at the local center of GOP power- the local right wing talk radio station.

doing so will help progressives recognize where thte invisible body blows are coming from and may get the local media attention needed to correct the inevitable distortions and lies.

if, as usual, progressives ignore the talk radio factor it will again count for many millions of votes around the country being cast in ignorance. one local loudmouth reading GOP and chamber of commerce talking points can undo the work of thousands of volunteer citizens working for causes and candidates.

the talk radio disparity, enabled by reagan killing the Fairness Doctrine, may be the single most imortant factor why we are in this bush disaster now.

the spat between limbaugh and mccain will not interfere with the swiftboating and distorting, always the main function of the GOP radio monopoly.

Well, first of all, whether he's faring well enough with Democratic voters is not all that clear. CA, NY, NJ, MA, upstate Virginia, "rural" Wisconsin, Tennessee -- Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania still out. West VA and KY. We'll see. So far, the race has been pretty even. Secondly, he opposed the invasion and she didn't. That carries weight with Democrats. Thirdly, we're not a majority in America. Not yet anyway. What works with us here in the blogosphere may not work as well out there where people make their livings in a way that doesn't let them chat on the internet all day. How Obama does against Clinton or how she does against him have little to do with how either one will do against McCain. We think of the "war" as being Obama's best issue. He and we have castigated Hillary's vote in favor of the AUMF. And yet, we have video of Obama eloquently endorsing John Kerry at a time when John Kerry was not castigating Bush for the invasion, but for the management of the occupation. Yes? But something changed between the time Obama endorsed Kerry at the 2004 convention and now. What was it?

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All good points. I agree completely that there will be a different audience in the general election than there is now in the primaries. So, I understand how your points could be valid and not imply what I inferred from them.

That said, I think the part of the audience in the general election that approves of the war will not give Hillary much credit for Hillary Clinton's involvement in the world. You're right that she will have seen and heard things as first lady that Obama has had less exposure to. Those things might help her in a debate against McCain, but it's unlikely since the audience won't have seen and heard those things. At least now I do have a reasoned argument for why someone thinks that Hillary is less weak against McCain on defense than Obama, even if I don't completely accept all the points of that argument.

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It appears that I was lacking a </em> tag…

I think Obama's best argument on Iran is that we need a new approach in the Middle East, if only to keep Israel from attacking Iran. He could say that the invasion played into Iran's hands, practically turning southern Iraq over to Iran, for reasons Juan Cole for one has spelled out over and over again. (Hillary would have to argue that it wasn't the invasion, but the failed occupation that lost Iraq to Iran.) Luckily for her, she doesn't have to argue with McCain about Iran at all.

Is this video about Obama true??

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sVeFVtcdSYY&eurl=http:%2F%2Fwww.anorak.co.uk%2Fpoliticians%2F179725.html

I just recently saw it. Is it a republican smear?
If its true, and there is talk that he's taken a polygraph to prove its truth, then I don't see how Obama can be elected. A pres. who did something like this would definately be a little more change than anyone counted on!


Guy

I met a guy in NYC about 10 years ago who believed he was once a line man for Con Ed, and that the Kennedys had tried to assassinate him by striking him with lightning one day when he was working on a power line, wiping out his memory of most of his life prior to that. He was ready to take a lie detector test to prove it, and I have no doubt he would have passed with flying colors. n As anyone knows, that video is not true. Try something a little less wierd next time. But thanks for stopping by to illustrate some of the points that have been made here today.

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Speaking about tired-out memes, that one has a lot of mileage under the hood! If you want substantive policy positions, you could try listening carefully to some of his longer speeches, or you could just go to his web-site.

BH,

My point isn't that Obama doesn't have substantive policy positions, but that it is awfully difficult for the average voter to know what they are. Most voters do not sit through long speeches or dig through campaign websites. They maybe see a few big speeches, and the rest of their info comes from news clips and Leno quips.

Think about the big Obama speeches that have been broadcast. The 2004 convention - if memory serves (and my point is all about the memories that linger after a speech), the speech was long on inspiration and short on policy. The Iowa victory speech, the bye-bye New Hampshire speech - those were all hope and change. How much more do you expect people to sit through? "Record" coverage for a Democratic debate is only 5 million viewers, while about 120 million Americans voted in the last presidential election. So even if Obama is actually serving policy inside a warm hope sandwich, the question is what impression remains. And the impression from soundbites, commentators, and the comedy shows is heading toward him being a policy lightweight preaching in a revival tent. No matter what is buried deep in Obama.com, this is the meme that is being planted, and which is starting to take root.

Ben Hocking: (3) This will be the general election where things such as Obama's war vote won't be quite the same slam dunk as it is in the Democratic primaries.

This I find hard to believe since 80+ % of Democrats are against the war, and 60+ % of Americans are against the war. Obama offers a clear choice between Dumb War and American Defense.


Billy Glad: I know that, TPC. I was just making the point how hard it is going to be for Obama to deal with this issue. One little botched joke finished John Kerry's bid to represent the Party this year.

Actually, I believe Kerry is a perfect example of why your theory is wrong. Kerry’s long service and heroism where not enough to inoculate from slime or to make him a more appealing as CIC than the obviously incompetent Bush. McCain is a war hero as well. And those who know his story respect him. That does not mean his fit to be CIC. At the end of the day, people will vote for the same reason they voted for GWB, Clinton and Reagan.

Who do you want in your living room for the next 8 years? A long resume, is not going to get Hillary into the white house, nor is it going to get McCain into the white house.

Also I would add, that we are seeing a sea change in progress in the Military. After Vietnam, republicans essentially owned the Military Vote. George Bush has done everything imaginable to undo the strangle hold republicans have had on these people. Obama would seal the deal. Tell me? What percent of the Military is Black?

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