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Rasmussen: Obama Up Four Points In Texas Primary
The new Rasmussen poll shows Barack Obama taking a four-point lead in the Texas primary. Here are the numbers, compared to the previous poll from Sunday:
Obama 48% (+3)
Clinton 44% (-2)
From the internals: Obama leads by 16 points with men, and trails among women by only 9 points.
A separate poll also showed a close race in Pennsylvania, with Hillary Clinton ahead 46%-42%.
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The only effect these polls have on me is to make me even more anxious for Tuesday.
February 28, 2008 11:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
idiotic, let me guess...this is great news for Hillary?
February 28, 2008 11:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
!!!HILLMENTUM™!!!!
February 28, 2008 12:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Very nice. It would also be unusual for Obama to do worse then Hillary in Texas in the caucuses.
February 28, 2008 11:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
For folks who are interested in the superdelegate numbers and how the trends in their support show the demise of Hillary's last firewall:
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/02/supermath-the-burning-of-the-l.php
Intesting factoid on supers: according to http://demconwatch.blogspot.com Hillary's superdelegate lead has gone from 96 in mid-January to a current lead of just 60. Also, according to CNN, Hillary has only had a net gain of 4 SDs since Feb. 12, while Obama has gained 20. Explains why the Clinton camp wants SDs to stop endorsing right now.
February 28, 2008 11:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
I believe your numbers actually off, and you represent a conservative estimate. I think Obama stands at, around +24 since Super Tuesday, while Clinton has seen a NET LOSS of four in that same time.
Either way, it doesn't really matter. What matters is 3/4, and the reaction to the results on 3/5.
February 28, 2008 11:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah - these numbers are different depending on who is giving them. But I agree with you that next Tuesday matters the most right now.
If Hillary wins both TX and OH, this will be the big story again. Roughly 295 supers are undeclared at this point. I don't think they're going to flock back to Hillary. But IF she wins TX and OH some of them might.
IF Obama wins Texas or Ohio, I think you're going to see a flood of SDs going his way in effort to end the campaign. The Clinton camp clearly is hearing this and are publicly trying to dissuade SDs from this plan.
February 28, 2008 11:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
Concur.
February 28, 2008 11:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
Based on what the clintons and their surrogates are doing, I am guessing that they believe that they will lose texas and squeak by in ohio. The way they are setting it up, they will then keep going until PA, which is closing rapidly. The argument that they plan on making is that obama wasn't able to win the "big" dem states, so the clintons should be the nominee with the help of the super delegates. I hope that it doesn't work and it definitely won't if the clintons lose ohio as well. The only way that this is done on 3/5 is if the clintons lose both texas and ohio.
February 28, 2008 11:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
Disagree, Michael A. I think unless Hillary pulls off something pretty decisive on Tuesday - which seems impossible at this point, given polling trends - party leaders will put enough pressure on her to get out of the race. And if she resists, the superdelegates will abandon her en masse, more publicly and rapidly than they already are.
Judging by polling trends, I think a week from now Clinton is an afterthought.
February 28, 2008 11:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
From your mouth to FSM's tendrilistic ears, but I'm going to have to go with Michael on this one. If Clinton has been consistent on anything, it's that she's not going down easily or softly.
February 28, 2008 11:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
But Gov. Rendell just said HRC had to win Texas and Ohio to even make it to his state. I feel a consensus forming that she will be heavily pressured to get out if she doesn't win Texas.
February 28, 2008 11:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
The Clinton ground game appears to be to constantly move the goal posts. With the polls tightening in PA, I suspect we'll have absolute closure by March 15 if Hillary loses either Texas or Ohio.
February 28, 2008 11:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
I hope you all are right. The clintons are very stubborn. Realistically, she should have quit already, because there is no way that she can make up the pledged delegates.
February 28, 2008 11:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
this is EXCELLENT NEWS!!! FOR HILLARY!!!!
!!!HILLMENTUM!!!!
February 28, 2008 11:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
You forgot to add that this is a justification for Mark Penn's brilliant tactics up to now!
Long live Mark Penn!!!
February 28, 2008 11:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
The trend in Texas is certainly consistent with what happened in other states prior to their primaries too. Obama starts out with a huge deficit, closes the gap considerably in no time, then overtakes Clinton a few days prior before cruising to victory. Come on Texas, let's land the knockout blow here.
February 28, 2008 11:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
The trends are similar to Wisconsin.
We'll see on next Tuesday how it all plays out. I'd be interested in seeing similar polling in Ohio, though I suspect Hillary will win there handily.
February 28, 2008 11:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is modestly reassuring news. It's the first poll I'm aware of that actually shows Obama ahead in Texas. Winning there (and I mean the popular vote as well as the delegate vote) is absolutely crucial. Here's my rationale (pulled up from the end of an earlier thread):
1) Hillary has to be forced out of the race on March 5 to avoid another five weeks of chamber-pot politics.
2) Popular wins for Hillary in Texas and Ohio will not get her out of the race.
3) A delegate win for Obama in Texas will be spun as an electoral aberration, the main point being: "Obama, despite huge advantages in money and troops, can't win big-state elections!"
4) The media will only too gladly amplify Hillary's spin.
5) There will be immediate calls for more debates leading up to PA.
6) And the whole (by now) nauseating process will recommence.
Thus: Obama must win the popular vote in Texas! I used to say in Ohio as well, but Texas will do.
February 28, 2008 11:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think I'll be somewhat contrarian on this one. I am not sure that I want to see Sen. Clinton forced out of the race by party "elders" even if she does not win both Ohio and Texas (and as of now I think that she will lose Texas and the odds are 50/50 in Ohio). Obama is building a 50 state strategy and aiming to be competitive in places where Democrats have not been in the hunt for decades. The more he campaigns in a place the more he is liked by the voters. This can only bode well for him in the general election. Let him use this time - and there is plenty of it - to create positive impressions for voters so that in the general election he does not have to start from behind. After all, Pennsylvania has the potential to be a battleground state (Kerry barely won it in 2004) and if Obama campaigns in Pennsylvania earlier he will improve his chances in the general election of carrying the state. In sum, I am in no hurry for the primaries to end as Sen. Obama is doing just fine, the horse race aspect creates publicity and the primary campaigning helps the general election cause.
February 28, 2008 11:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
You make a very good case for the primary campaign to continue past 3/4: to allow Obama to gain more experience and exposure.
But the counter argument is that the longer this drags out, the more it will benefit McCain because he will have had more time to prepare against Obama (or Clinton). The other counter argument is that if this fight goes all the way to the floor of the convention, it will have the potential to divide the party.
So the question is, what would be the ideal time, from Obama's point of view? My feeling is that it should be no sooner than 3/4 but certainly before the convention convenes. I think what is likely to happen is that a consensus will start to form which will make it impossible for Clinton to continue without bringing down the wrath of the party on her and Bill's head. Therefore, that is a psychological threshhold to look out for. At what point do the party elders say, "Enough!"
My intuition is that if Obama comes away from 3/4 with a win in Texas and a close run or win in Ohio, that will add enough delegates for the consensus to begin to form, and if he gets ahead by as many as 250 committed delegates after Pennsylvania, that will be it for Clinton. Right now he is about 125-150 committed delegates ahead, depending on who is doing the counting. Another 100 more will do it I think.
On the other hand if Clinton wins handily (15 pts or more) in TX/Ohio, it is a new ball game.
February 28, 2008 3:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
There are worse things than this nomination process continuing. Seriously, it is going to really help the Obama campaign to have built ground games, donors, activists in places like Ohio, Texas, Wisconsin, and perhaps Pennsylania.
At the same time, I'm definitely rooting for a knockout punch on Tuesday.
February 28, 2008 11:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary will never quit. She has been on a 35 year pilgrimage, and will not be stopped.
Hillary is The Black Knight, in Quest for The Holy Grail.
She may have lost her arms, and she may not have a leg left to stand on, but she is the seasoned warrior princess who has learned how to conquer those heathen Republicans. Corporate Lobbyists, not so much!
February 28, 2008 11:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
Mark Penn: "It's just a flesh wound!"
February 28, 2008 12:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
All that leftover Obama cash, which can't be used in the General, could be used to soften the ground for November. Remember, Bush-Cheney won the last election before the conventions were even held. Why waste time in more primary squabbling? Why allocate allow Hillary negative campaigning to funnel more ideas and sound bites to the GOP? Why further stress Democratic unity in a protracted know-down, drag-out. No, the process needs to be brought to a close! (In my humble opinion.)
February 28, 2008 12:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think it is pretty clear that Obama will win TX and by a reasonable margin. Maybe not as big as his Feb run (his average margin of victory was 37%!!!!) but certainly a healthy one considering she had been up by double digits a week or two ago.
There are a couple of polls that show HRC tied but otherwise everything in the last week has shown Obama ahead by enough he is outside of the MOE. Nothing shows HRC ahead any more.
If Obama wins TX by 5pts, loses OH by 10pts - HRC will need to win PA by 40pts! AND split the remaining Obama states AND win her remaining states by 20pts just to pull almost even-- INCLUDING the already committed super delegates.
So nutshell- She needs to win OH AND TX BIG to stay in the race.
February 28, 2008 12:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
And to help in the effort to keep the primaries on the straight and narrow,,,,,, the following from Juan Cole on Semitic names is good reading,,,,, and needs be distributed more broadly,, now would not be too soon.
http://www.juancole.com/2008/02/barack-hussein-obama-omar-bradley.html#comments
February 28, 2008 1:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Excellent and informative link. A must read for all. Maybe you should shoot that to lush and the rest of right-wing talk radio.
February 28, 2008 1:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Once Hillary drops out, cant'/won't Obama continue to use primary funds to campaign (victory-lap style) in the remaining states, building up grassroots org and building popularity?
February 28, 2008 3:36 PM | Reply | Permalink