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Rasmussen: Obama Leads Hillary By Five Nationally
In another sign that he might just be the official frontrunner now, Barack Obama has taken the lead in Rasmussen's daily tracking poll — the first time ever since he announced his candidacy, when he got a brief bump. Here are the numbers, compared to yesterday's:
Obama 46% (+4)
Clinton 41%(-3)
And for the general election match-ups against John McCain:
Obama (D) 46% (+2), McCain (R) 40% (+0)
McCain (R) 46% (+1), Clinton (D) 42% (-2)
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As an Obama supporter, I say this is a good thing, but in reality, it's meaningless at this point.
February 13, 2008 11:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yep, I agree publicus, meaningless. The only good thing is the trend that it shows. At the end of the day in november, who knows what's going to happen. I really am tired of these polls. They are never right.
February 13, 2008 11:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
How do you mean? One of the arguments we need to be making RIGHT NOW and going forward, is that Obama can beat McCain and she can't.
February 13, 2008 11:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
Haven't you heard? These polls are being manipulated by Republicans who think Obama would actually be easy to beat!
(I'm not being serious, but I have heard this argument recently used by a Clinton supporter.)
February 13, 2008 12:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Probably mattie.
February 13, 2008 12:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
No, it wasn't him, but I have noticed how much you like him! ;)
February 13, 2008 12:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Mattie's my bud.
February 13, 2008 12:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yep, once again, Hillary can't beat McCain, Obama can, so why are we having any arguments about anything else at this point?? If Hillary cared the least bit about our chances in November or the future of this country she would bow out gracefully now and help Obama as much as possible. The fact that she will continue to try to win, no matter how much it hurts everyone, even though if she did get nominated it is clear she would just lose to McCain, shows how selfish the Clintons are. If they aren't willing to look at the big picture and do what is best for Democrats, hopefully their supporters will.
February 13, 2008 11:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary can't beat Obama, how on earth will she stand up against McCain and the Republicans.
The Democratic party will be looking at 4 more years of Republican rule if Hillary is the nominee.
February 13, 2008 12:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hand me a fork. This one's done.
February 13, 2008 12:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
For a campaign whose strongest message is "we're the most competent choice," the Clinton campaign has been shockingly incompetent.
February 13, 2008 12:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
The one part of this that isn't meaningless: the head-to-head matchup polls. As long as they keep showing it with an Obama win and a Clinton loss, that's great news for Obama. Superdelegates, after all, see these polls.
February 13, 2008 12:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't think Hillary should quit yet because the backlash against Obama may be severe. Better to let her quit on her own terms. i.e., if she does not win convincingly in OH/TX, or worse loses one or both. I agree that both Hill and Bill are obsessed with winning, but one thing they ain't is stupid. Both are reasonably young with futures ahead of them, and they need this truth to sink in.
For my part, I want her to hang in there at least until Mar. 4, and then make the decision that is best for herself, Bill, and of course, Chelsea. If she loses either OH or TX or both, then she should throw in the towel.
If that happens, Obama will have a clearer path ahead of him, rather than one troubled by a pro-Clinton backlash.
February 13, 2008 12:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'd add in the Democratic party and the nation to that list, as well (not necessarily in that order), but I agree with your sentiment. I voted for Obama (and still support him), but I think it's premature at this point to be calling for Clinton to quit.
February 13, 2008 12:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't believe any polls, especially national ones.
Simply stated, to win the general election you do not need to win the popular vote nation wide. You simply have to win (by one vote each) the states with a majority of the electoral college.
Just ask President Gore!
February 13, 2008 12:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
One of the Clinton campaign arguments is that Obama hasn't been properly vetted and she has been put through the grinder and survived. That's not entirely true. She and Bill have only won campaigns in liberal New York since their '96 victory. They have not been fulled vetted in re the full impact of the impeachment, the Mark Rich pardon, and a number of other stories. IT is not OBama's style to go after her on these issues. But you can bet the Republicans are waiting to let loose. They survived before, but a lot has happened since '96.
February 13, 2008 12:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
And, they never won an election with more than 49% of the vote and in 96 it was against dole. Nice man and war hero, but he was not a very good candidate. They never got even a slim majority. Talk about not "vetted."
February 13, 2008 12:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think Hillary would beat McCain and Obama would beat him in a landslide. I don't think Hillary can beat Obama, but I have no problem whatsoever with her continuing her campaign. I would have a problem if, in desperation, her campaign took a sharp turn negative, as that would hurt the party.
This is coming from a dedicated Obama supporter, by the way.
February 13, 2008 1:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's pretty obvious that Obama can take voters away from McCain while Hillary is stuck with a fairly static support base. You only need to look at how he's been chipping away at her support among Democrats to see how he'll play this. Obama has been running a great campaign, and I am confident he will blow McCain out of the water. Not true for Hillary - she'll get women voters and McCain will take the independents, the older voters, the Latino vote and every Republican of voting age.
To choose Hillary as the nominee would be suicide for the Democratic Party.
February 13, 2008 1:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Funny. Mattie, franklyO, and the other HRC cheerleader/apologists don't seem to have much (or anything) to say these days. Evidently, the "ignore what you don't like" strategy is consistent across the board.
And of course, if Hillary *does* win TX (my money is on Obama to win OH by a decent margin, but HRC has a pretty good shot at TX at this point - but don't count out her ongoing ability to piss off as many people as humanly possible), no doubt they'll all be back here in full-on obnoxious victory mode. If/when that happens, I'll be quick to remind them of how speedily they abandoned any semblance of support for their candidate when things looked bad for her.
As an aside: while watching Obama's speech last night, I noticed that he hit the issue of higher education - availabilty and affordability - a number of times, to loud applause. Not a shock when speaking at a university, but certainly a demonstration that Obama is a politician (Oh no!), and well aware of how to tailor his approach based on the crowd. In noting this, I commented to my husband - without even thinking - "Man, Obama sure is pimping out the college stuff for this crowd." Oh, how we laughed.
Needless to say, I have been temporarily suspended from my home. Half-hearted apologies and soul-searching to follow.
February 13, 2008 1:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree.
But I'm afraid a sharp turn negative is on the horizon, and I think it is a horrible idea for both the party and for HRC's campaign.
The only silver lining is if the huge backlash I'm betting will follow anything seriously negative results in landslides for Obama on March 4, this thing will be over for all intents and purposes.
February 13, 2008 1:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
the negative turn could have a positive effect. obama's camp has done well at responding quickly, and it could gear him up for the same attacks in a few months.
been interesting to see the gop narrative start to emerge lately: that he's all style, no substance (HRC said we need more cattle, less hat after dubya, effectively echoing limbaugh, though she was less direct). that promising hope is just a 'platitude', that the newbie thinks he's better than everyone else and that things will be easy.
the gop strategy has always been to use someone's strengths against them-- I expect HRC will do the same, and Obama was responding to those attacks in his speech last night.
February 13, 2008 1:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary hopefully has enough sense to lose with some of her integrity in tact.
It would take a long time for people to forget anything nasty she does as she her campaign is tanking.
She's also be mucking up Bill's legacy with the Dems and the nation as a whole as well.
I'm holding out hope that the sensible Hillary wins out over the ambitious-at-all-costs Hillary.
February 13, 2008 5:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
true, but after the Florida votes were analyzed, it was clear Gore should have taken those delegates too, and thus the election.
which only goes to show that delegates shouldn't be apportioned until the votes are counted.
AND that we surely don't want Florida's wack elections to throw everything off balance yet another time, effectively disenfranchising Florida voters by arguing that they must NOT be disenfranchised...
February 13, 2008 1:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
If the O bomb would only quit the race and throw his support behind Clinton she would beat McCain easily! This proves that O bomb is just selfish and doesnt really care about Democrats winning in November! Nya nya nya....!
February 13, 2008 2:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
He continues to show- he is running a great campaign.
While Hillary has just launched an attack ad- cliaming Obama doesn't want to debate the issues, he laid out his economic plan at a GE plant in wisconsin, attacked NAFTA, and as AP reports promised plant workers "he would end tax breaks for companies who ship jobs overseas and would not sign trade agreements unless they include protections for the environment and American workers."
Also, his speech was all detail and less oratory. Good Job Barack!!! It's time to bring the lower income Americans- the most deserved group- into the our tent.
February 13, 2008 5:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
I actually think he has better chance winning or at least getting more delegates out of TX. Just because how they distribute their delegates. Also one-third of TX pledged delegates are awarded by Caucus. Also, it's a open primary- and with John McCain certain to be a republican nominee Barack may get a lot of anti-Hill vote. Plus- even though Hispanics out number Blacks- it seems they have almost as much delegete power. If he campaigns hard in TX he'll really come close.
BTW She doesn't give a rat's ass about the party. She'll definetly stay in the race atleast until PA, whatever happens in TX and OH.
February 13, 2008 5:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
http://www.nypost.com/seven/01302008/news/nationalnews/photo_that_has_women_furious_930088.htm
A picture is worth a thousand "pretty" words:
Is that the expression of a man out to unite the country??
Rae
February 13, 2008 10:17 PM | Reply | Permalink