More good news. Here's looking forward to Mar 4.

I'm signing up for intrade and I'm going to put a ton of money on Obama to win the nomination. And I am generally not a betting man. The nomination race has almost - almost - become uninteresting to me. I think this one's over.

Haven't you guys learned anything about the Clintons? They're best when up against the ropes. And Hillary's little "emotional moment" in last night's debate could bring out the sympathy voters, a la N.H., even if she stole the talking points.
Then again, this sheisty insistence on seating FL and MI could turn enough people off that she takes a major thumpin' in TX and OH.

All he has to do is win the popular vote in Texas, Ohio or Pennsylvania, and he's the nominee. Should be a walk in the park.

Can anyone explain to me their theory on why MA looks so close for McCain against Obama?

Obama (D) 48%, McCain (R) 46%

But better for Hillary?

Clinton (D) 52%, McCain (R) 43%

The proximity of MA to NY? It can't be name recognition...does McCain have some ties there I might not be aware of?

Even if Senator Obama wins both Texas and Ohio it will not be over, because it is not in Hillary or Bill's nature to concede gracefully for the good of the party.

Hillary is the Black Knight, in Quest for The Holy Grail.

Hey People;
You seemed pretty engaged so I have a help request.
If anyone knows of a current write-in campaign to tell the Congrss to not cave in to Bush about this telecom immunity issue could you email it to me?
I am mad as hell and want to let my congressman know he has my full support to not yield to this intimidation.
Thanks,
David
drwilbur@gmail.com

Eric, your are freakingly idiotic! Why are you so excited? Yesterday, there where polls out showing Hillary leading Obamamaniac by 1% in TX and 7% in OH. If anything, these new polls show her lead widening. Were you born last night?

Just for clarity, Obama has won 11 in a row. He won the expats primary, 65% to 33%. http://news.google.com/news/url?sa=t&ct=us/1-0&fp=47bf491866609343&ei=3Cm_R5jKEJWoygTf452NBg&url=http%3A//www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0%2C2144%2C3143740%2C00.html&cid=0&sig2=hOpyEeCX93RJgjkTguQqKg

Aimey May wrote:

"Eric, your are freakingly idiotic! Why are you so excited? Yesterday, there where polls out showing Hillary leading Obamamaniac by 1% in TX and 7% in OH. If anything, these new polls show her lead widening. Were you born last night?"

Aimey - I'm glad that HRC supporters post here; the site would be a lot less interesting and informative were it to be otherwise. But I've yet to read a single post from you that offered any type of useful information and/or insight. Your M.O. consists of posting hateful comments written at what appears to be a third-grade level. Until you can post without indulging your penchant for random and childish name-calling, kindly shut up.

Aimey,

I am not the Eric you were replying to, but a different Eric. Are you sure you're comparing the right polls? Either way, "Freakingly idiotic?""Were you born last night?" How about taking it down a notch?

If her campaign coffers were still full, I suspect she would fight on to PA no matter what. But when she's funding her own campaign millions of dollars and spending as much time groveling for more funds as she is shaking hands and kissing babies, fighting it out until the very end is not a luxory she can indulge in.

And I say Virginia is very much a coin toss with Obama. McCain isn't going to be able to rally the evangelical base in the rural and western parts of the state that Bush has the last two elections.

Just because Obama beat Clinton in those states, doesn't mean he'll beat McCain in them. He may very well do so, but there has to be more than the warm fuzzies of a string of primary victories, and the flush of a revival speech, to draw that conclusion.

Well, I'm still waiting to hear the campaign strategy that is going to win Ohio and Florida for Obama. What coalition of voters is he going to put together to win those states? But like I say he is lucky. His opponents all seem to involve themselves in scandals at the last minute, so maybe McCain will self-destruct. Most of this comment misses the point that if Obama doesn't win in a landslide he's a lame duck before he's sworn in.

Greg, quick question....do you work for TPM? You seem to post a lot. : )

As far as Ohio goes ... keep in mind this.

Kerry won among self labeled moderates 59% to 41%. Winning over the independants wasn't the issue in Ohio for Democrats.

Bush won because he was able to get his base to the booth. 5% more conservative voters went to the polls in 2004 than went in 2000.

In contrast, Kerry only got 2% more self labeled liberal voters to vote than 2000.

McCain won't be able to draw the evangelical, far right base that Bush did. Obama will appeal more to the young, the left and African Americans (12% of the state population).

Responding to Billy Glad early in the thread, having Michelle O. picking out her inaugural gown, just scrolling down to comment I see the gentleman's been active all afternoon.

As a historian who's tried to note the reversals and "boulversements," upsettings if I remember my French correctly, that have dogged political history in the advanced nations in the "modern" last two or three centuries.

When you look at your world-changing leaders, your Napoleon and Palmerston, Churchill, FD Roosevelt, Hitler and Stalin and Mao too, there are such ups and downs on the path to power, such apparent reversals of fortune and periods when the future leader seemed definitively eclipsed.

Also, as one worried about the possible existence of a "secret government" centered in the intelligence community since before Nov. 22, 1963 to the present day, arguably if this scenario is correct they haven't had a president they couldn't live with and/or intimidate since then, and they aren't about to start now that they've got global secret prisons and "total intelligence awareness" over global electronic communication. If this scenario has any reality at all, either Barack Obama is already acquainted with these people ... or Michelle should be worrying, unfortunately but given the history of these people (in the arguments for the reality of this scenario) perhaps more about her life insurance than her inaugural gown ... and if I seem out of line here, I only reflect today's polling of African Americans ...

Aimey: I think it's less to do with "the movie you've seen before" and more to do with furious progressive feminists. Every man in the establishment- from Teddy to Duval backed Obama and the women of MA didn't like it.

Once they realize the threat against Roe v. Wade, everyone will get in line no matter who the democratic nominee may be;

No way all these angry women will vote for McCain. Once they relax and take a breather- they'll do the right thing.

The 'moment' at the end of the last debate was not Hillary Clinton's defining moment.

The concilatory speech she must make after the TX & OH contests will be the most important moment of her public life (assuming Obama is clear winner of both contests). its such a rare opportunity

-to acknowledge Obama as the Dem nominee
-to congratulate the TX and OH electorate on their role in making history (energizing them moving forward by stressing THEIR stake in the Obama candidacy.
-to point the way toward a reproachment with the MI and FL delegations

I think the WORST thing that could happen for the Dems is for Hillary to narrowly win OH or TX.

Not the least of the reasons I favor Obama is he embraces the 50-state strategy, and will in November.

We conceed nothing: McCain will have a fight on his habds everywhere, even here in reliably-red South Carolina.

NY/CA/MA/WI/IL are all in the bag. Evertwhere else, we're coming after the voters.

The GOP has been able to stay on cruise control in too many states--hurts us down-ticket, big time.

No longer. If Republicans are complacent about places like the "Solid South", so much the better. Sauce for the goose.

cheers,

DD

I agree. He has to win either Texas or Ohio, or be within 5 points.

Why do I feel uneasy about the 100% confidence expressed by many Obama supporters regarding Texas and Ohio? To me these contests seem far from sure things. Remember, in Wisconsin Obama was ahead about 5 points before the vote, and the Hillary folks were hoping for an upset. In Texas and Ohio the situation is just the reverse, and then some; it's Hillary who is ahead and many Obama folks now predicting an obvious momentum-driven win. To me such talk sounds imprudent at best if not an actual taunting of the Fates, who love to thump hubris on the head and have a rollicking good laugh. Politics is not physics, and the momentum which so many assume to be changing the poll numbers invisibly behind the scenes is not in fact a force of nature. To put it differently, the yellow line shown on the graph at pollster.com is not a rocket - as someone recently suggested elsewhere - but a graph line and nothing more. But if one insists on the rocket analogy, it might be well to remember that rockets unexpectedly go haywire in mid-sky and come crashing to earth. If Obama loses in Texas by so much as a single point, his campaign will be declared a rocket in arrest or worse. That's how irrational the political process is. Do the Obama optimists really think that New Hampshire is an unrepeatable fluke? Would someone please run me through the logic of this breezy optimism and put my mind at ease.

Supporting Obama is not unlike supporting a supporting a sports team that always seems to run behind until the very end of the game when they sprint ahead to win.

I no longer have finger nails.

It's nerve wracking!

I feel much the same. Hate to tempt fate. As someone else wrote, it's like watching a sports team that always has to come from behind. Obama recognized as much today when he referred to himself as the challenger and HRC as the champ. The good news is that he and his organization understand the situation and do not appear to be relying on their presumed inevitability. It's a great team that apparently knows how to win and displays confidence but never seems overconfident.

I think the most interesting data and projections for Texas have been posted on the Burnt Orange Repoert who've done a superb job of not only explaining the labyrinthine Texas delegate and caucus process but they are there on the ground with some interesting observations.

http://www.burntorangereport.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=5110