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Rasmussen: Hillary's Lead Shrinks In New Jersey, But She's Still Well Ahead
A new Rasmussen poll shows the Democratic race to be tightening somewhat in New Jersey, though Hillary Clinton still has a good-sized lead. Here are the numbers, compared to Rasmussen's own poll from two weeks ago:
Clinton 49% (+4)
Obama 37% (+10)
While it is virtually impossible that Hillary Clinton could ever lose this state's primary, being a heavily suburban state right next door to New York, a potentially weak majority would rob her of what was hoped to be a huge delegate advantage.
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I believe the race will tighten up everywhere Hilary had a natural advantage including New York. This is because the more voters get to know Obama, the more they like him.
February 1, 2008 8:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
Whew, glad to see the comment mechanism is working. I missed everybody's two cents last night.
I'm from NJ, and I'll tell you what: my sister, her Repub-raised husband, mother, brothers down there are all for Obama. At least one of my brothers voted for Bush in 2000 (he's been forgiven). I wouldn't say my sister was previously apathetic (she helped MoveOn's election day GOTV in PA in '04). But she's very busy with her three elementary school-age children. The point is, she and two girlfriends, all in their 40's, got the husbands and grandmas to mind the kids and shot up to NH for three days of canvassing for Barack. Now the three of them are precinct captains staging canvassing out of my sister's house through Sunday. This is on top of the training, the phone-banking, the sign and button ordering and distributing. These are not Democratic party regulars; my sister's friends are Independents. I don't know what this means except that they are seeing this movement, which may sound trite, take hold. I wouldn't put NJ in Hillary's camp just yet. Especially since independents can vote.
February 1, 2008 10:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hello?
February 1, 2008 11:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
"Virtually impossible"? Remember the "Keith" number: MOE + Undecideds. Probably somewhere around 20% in this case.
February 1, 2008 11:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
Another good sign. I have dim hopes of winning NJ, but if Obama can keep Clinton's margin small enough, he will live to fight another day, and that is the best that I can hope for at the moment.
February 1, 2008 12:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
from kjoe--
Virtually impossible? Well---that should be an easier bar to clear than the 15 percent margin required of obama in South carolina, just to avoid it being called a Clinton "victory".
He beat that by 12 points. Let's see---he needs to make up---12 more points to accomplish the virtually impossible?
He has Bill bradley on his side. He might carry New Jersey and Missouri. What NBA team did Bradley play for? Surely hillary can win in New York.
February 1, 2008 1:15 PM | Reply | Permalink