« Still Another Hillary Ad In Wisconsin | Home | MoveOn Petition On Super-Dels: Over A Quarter Million Signatures And Counting »
Pollster.com: For First Time, Obama Leading Hillary In National Polling Average
A milestone? For the first time, Obama passes Hillary in Pollster.com's comprehensive aggregation of national polls, leading her 47.1%-46%...
Special thanks to TPM Reader MF for the catch.
Advertisement
woo-f'in-hoo!
look at that trajectory!
perhaps we can finally break past this 50% split we've had for too damned long in this country (and a majority on our side even!)
February 15, 2008 4:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
*sigh* Why am I always ahead of the curve?
February 15, 2008 4:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Congrats to Sen. Obama. I hope he enjoys his brief stay at the top.
February 15, 2008 4:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Considering the number of polls, the time frame and the trajectories, I don't think this is going to be a brief stay.
February 15, 2008 4:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
You mean you hope his stay at the top is brief.
February 15, 2008 4:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm assuming you mean brief because soon this will be over and they'll stop running these polls because Obama will be the nominee...?
February 15, 2008 4:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Monica said that Bill enjoyed his briefs stay at the top.
February 15, 2008 5:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Brief stay at the top?"
Apparently you did not really look at the graph. For the last three months of 2007 and into 2008 Obama has been trending upward without any dips. Hillary on the other hand was still on the rise but on a rather flat trajectory, with a dip lasting a couple of months. She shows a rise after NH, but if anything, it is Hillary whose uptrend is temporary. Obama's rise has to come at someone's expense, and there is no one else in the picture.
February 15, 2008 8:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
THE RACE IS OVER...case you missed it. It would take a miracle for Hillary to win the pledged delegates. Okay, I hear you say, but what about the Supers? Well all Hillary had to give was winning. Most of the Supers are on the ballot, meaning they want to win. Obama polls better against McCain, raises more money that Clinton, turns out the Dem base in higher numbers, appeals in Red states(meaning tough seats), he has brought record numbers of blacks to the polls and is doing 4-1 there (now you see why Lewis switch).
Almost everyone has missed this (included TPM, sorry :)...Chuck Todd, notably has discussed it). All this brokered convention stuff is just nonsense, why do you think Barack got 13 more Supers this week and Hillary lost 3? They're figuring it out too. Obama won with his landslides in the Potomac Primaries. I suspect it will take until after he wins WI and HI that this really hits home for the MSM...but maybe not. Maybe they'll still want to play up the conflict. But it's over. The question is which white guy should Obama choose as VP?
February 16, 2008 12:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've been checking this one every morning for the past couple of weeks, waiting to see this happen. I think this may be a pretty big deal. We'll see if it holds...
February 15, 2008 4:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
National, schmational. Has anyone looked at his trendline on the TX graphs from Pollster.com? Not to be vulgar, but his trendline there could do promo spots for Viagra right now. To my eye her "firewall" is starting to look like dry tinder. Hoepfully this will be wrapped up soon so that we can move this race on to the real Republican vs Democrat match-up.
February 15, 2008 4:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
And, as I've posted, TX and OH would need to be BLOWOUTS. Huge massive blowouts. That's not likely. Hillary is toast, she's just running through the 4th to see if something weird doesn't happen. But the numbers have been crunched. Obama is the winner! Exclamation point because I'm an Obumpersticker person. But regardless, even if you're not an Obama supporter, there's no changing reality. 23? losses out of 33 will do that to a campaign, I don't care how big those 10 states are.
February 16, 2008 12:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
"National, schmational"
You stole my thunder Greg, well played..lol
February 15, 2008 4:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
I realize that a lot of TPM readers may not be golf fans, but this reminds me of the day in April 1997 when the announcer at the Masters said: "Tiger Woods has just taken the lead for first time in a major championship." And we know how that has turned out...
February 15, 2008 4:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is excellent news for Hillary!!! !!!HILLMENTUM™!!!
February 15, 2008 4:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Obama were a math function, his derivitive would be positive.
Fellow math geeks, you get me.
February 15, 2008 5:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't mean to break your party, but her slope is also positive.
February 15, 2008 5:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
positive momentum, and accelerating (i.e. second derivative is positive, too). add in his positive hope charge, and he's shining barackstrahlung all over the place.
February 15, 2008 5:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Barackstrahlung"?!? Does she need to shield herself with plexiglass at the debates? Do we also?
February 15, 2008 5:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
I nominate Greg's Viagra line for teh funny of the day..
February 15, 2008 5:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
If he were an economic function, his derivative wouldn't be paid.
Fellow investors, you get me.
February 15, 2008 5:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Clearly a majority of the country has become insignificant to the Clinton campaign.
February 15, 2008 5:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not to get too math geeky, but Clinton's derivative is also positive on that graph. However, Obama's tangent is nearly vertical- a VERY good sign.
February 15, 2008 5:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
WHat is more important, Brett S, is that the second derivative is positive as well. (This one is really nerdy)
February 15, 2008 5:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
actually, it's pretty straightforward: when you go quasi exponential, all your derivatives are positive.
February 15, 2008 5:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's interesting to compare TX to OH. In TX, Clinton trend-line points down (post-coital?), suggesting that Obama is taking Clinton's support. But in OH, both lines are still going up at pretty much the same rate. Any one have an explanation? Flyonthewall, we need you.
February 15, 2008 5:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's a heck of a hockey stick.
1st derivitive AND 2nd derivitive are positive.
/nerd
February 15, 2008 5:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
It looks to me like d(Obama)/dt ~ 5*d(Hillary)/dt. Not good at all for Hillary.
Math geeks rule!
February 15, 2008 5:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Mark Penn, where are you? Quick, I need to be told why this is meaningless.
February 15, 2008 5:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
What is interesting to me here is that Clinton is continuing to rise in polling even as Obama passes her. As an armchair observation this indicates to me that Clinton is not peeling away Clinton support, but rather undecideds and ex-Edwards/Kucinich/etc supporters are breaking for Obama.
February 15, 2008 5:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
If anyone is reading, look at the long trend. Hillary has hit and remained at a level she has never really moved up from with all the branding, money, experience et cetera.
This is her ceiling, and all she do is stay flat or go down.
February 15, 2008 6:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ummm, instead of math, how about gravity. What goes up must come down. This adage, I think applies better to polling data than any long term math trend. Why not ask both the elder and younger Bushes about what happens after spikes in approval ratings?
And as to the comment that Hillary's graph is flat - I don't know about you, but there is a distinct upward trend over the last month or so in the graph and, as others have noted, she continues a much slower, but still steady, rise while Obama's graph looks an awful lot like graphs of Bush (pick one) popularity.
Let's see, what other compaisons come to mind? Oh, how about the tortoise and the hare?
February 16, 2008 10:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
Happy to oblige, urbinato:
1. Obama voters never count. So ignore the orange line.
2. You're still looking at the orange line? OK, try this: the mathematical extrapolation of the orange line, given its positive second derivative, is that Obama's support will top 100 percent within a month or so, and within a year his supporters will exceed the number of atoms in the universe. Clearly, that is impossible. Hence, his support cannot exist.
February 15, 2008 6:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
If he were a bodily function his schwing would be in full swing.
Fellow studs, you get me.
February 15, 2008 6:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
I took that chart and did some extrapolation.
Obama's curve hits the vertical asymptote well before the Ohio and Texas primaries.
February 15, 2008 6:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
You guys are too funny. But talking about schwinging, I used to adore the feature that pollster.com used to have that would let you see each chart dating back to 2004. Obama's orange streak came out of nowhere in the middle of each chart, and moved straight up.
I don't know why, but that feature now is missing from the website.
*sniff*
I miss it.
February 15, 2008 6:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
I just heard this on NPR in a 7 minute interview with Black Hillary supporter, Emmanuel Cleaver. It is very disturbing... He talks of Black super delegates being threatened and harrassed for their support of Hillary.
Cleaver, too, has experienced some troubles.
"I had a person in my district send out a newsletter, for which I know he didn't pay, distributed primarily in the African-American community, in which he suggested that I had been paid by Sen. Clinton to support her. I don't know if there's anyone who [is African American] who hasn't taken some grief for supporting Sen. Clinton."
VERY DISTURBING...this smacks of George W, also one who like OBAMA now, claimed to be THE ONE to bring a new tone to Washington...a uniter not a divider.
February 15, 2008 8:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Geeks are sexy. This whole thread has me all hot and bothered. I'm going straight home to hubby, and will ask him to explain everything written in this thread...nice and slow, baby. Nice and slow.
;)
February 15, 2008 8:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have begun to feel more affection for the Orange Line than for Obama himself. I just find it so cute and cuddly!
February 15, 2008 9:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
>National, schmational. Has anyone looked at his >trendline on the TX graphs from Pollster.com?
Wow - that's very encouraging. If he wins TX it's over, right?
February 16, 2008 12:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
If both trend lines compose a drawing of Bill's Clenis, Monica's lips should appear at the right side of the chart any day now.
Sex addicts, you feel me.
I will save you the trouble....ewwwwwwww!
February 16, 2008 12:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
If Obama were a bell, he'd be ringing.
Fellow Guys and Dolls, you get me.
February 16, 2008 11:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
All of this is interesting but Hillary needs historic landslides in TX and OH to have a chance. The Miracle isn't looking likely.
February 16, 2008 12:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is that your poll line or are you just happy to see me?
February 16, 2008 8:19 PM | Reply | Permalink