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Polls Show Tight Primary Race In Texas
Two new polls of Texas show the Democratic primary to be a dead heat, with Hillary Clinton grabbing a narrow lead. Seattle-based Constituent Dynamics, in a poll commissioned for a local TV station, gives Hillary 46% to Barack Obama's 45%. Texas-based IVR has Hillary at 50% to Obama's 45%.
The IVR poll went one step beyond simple statewide polling, and assigned delegates based on the state Senate districts where respondents lived. The result was a bare eight-delegate edge for Hillary from the primary, hinting that she could be in trouble even if that lead holds up — one-third of the Texas delegates will be won in caucuses held later that night, a setting in which the Hillary camp has had a lot of trouble organizing effectively.
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Thank you for more TX polls. Statistical dead heats are just what I was hoping to see at this stage in the game.
February 21, 2008 3:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
8 point delegate leads aren't going to get the job done.
February 21, 2008 3:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think he very well might win Texas at this rate, maybe even Ohio. Either way, if she loses either of them, or doesn't win by a blowout landslide in both, she needs to have the decency to gracefully exit (if you could still call it graceful at this point) and let us move on to taking down McCain and the Republicans.
February 21, 2008 3:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Lots of work to do on behalf of the Obama ground game. Things look good, but not great. Only great will be acceptable.
The bells are tolling, and I think the finish line is within sight. Two weeks is a long time, but we most certainly have seen this pattern before.
February 21, 2008 3:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Exactly. Much work still to be done, but this is an encouraging sign at this point with two weeks still to go. She was far ahead just a week ago (Rasmussen had her up 16% over him on Feb 14), so the trends are moving the right way, but while the brass ring might be within reach, it is not yet in our hands.
February 21, 2008 4:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
If the debate tonight gets boring, may I recommend...
PENGUIN VS. BATMAN TELEVISED DEBATE
(a clip from the Original TV show)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=COG08Ults0E&feature=related
February 21, 2008 3:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Rasmussen has a three pt. difference in Texas:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/texas/texas_democratic_presidential_primary
February 21, 2008 4:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ouch, from 16 down to 3 in a week?!? That is just a little shy of 2 pts/day. That is a trend line to give Mark Penn a Maalox moment.
February 21, 2008 4:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think Michelle's gaffe hurt Obama, and this is reflected in the Gallup switching back to Hillary even after the rout in WI/HI. Otherwise it makes no sense.
Hopefully some the impact will fade by the time Mar. 4 rolls around but a lot of it is going to stick. As gaffes go, this one was huge. The Obama team may be wise to put Michelle into small group sessions where she can interact with people on a personal level, instead of being on a stage with a mike.
Funny thing is, even before the "I am proud" gaffe, someone said Michelle was an accident waiting to happen. A few days later I read about the gaffe.
February 21, 2008 4:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't agree - I think the McCain fiasco has effectively wiped out Michelle's "gaffe" and even Obama's ridiculous plagiarism story from the public's consciousness. The McCain story will hopefully have legs and will be dominating the news cycles for another couple of days at least. There's also a debate tonite so that will generate some news as well. And I hope people are outraged over Bill O'Reilly's "lynching" statement, which is hopefully blunting people's perceptions of what she meant by her statement.
February 21, 2008 4:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Kos reports that early voting in TX is up 1,000 percent, which may be very good news for Obama:
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/2/21/141418/488/420/461300
I really believe that, barring a major train wreck during the next couple of weeks, Obama will pull this one out and perhaps even Ohio (with the help of the union endorsements). It will indeed be over for her at that point (a la Bill Clinton).
February 21, 2008 4:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'd love to think she'd fulfill the former President's prediction yesterday, but they have an awful capacity for ignoring inconvenient bits of reality.
My guess is, if she loses everything on the 4th, Pennsylvania will instantly be transformed into the absolute, final, end-of-the-line, no-going-back, honest-t'God firewall state for her campaign.
By the way, I heard Sen. Clinton used the phrase 'Get real' ten times to day at various events.
That should sew it up right there. How can anyone, I ask you, resist such oratory?
February 21, 2008 5:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
If this race is a dead heat today, then barring a major gaffe at tonight's debate, or next week's Ohio debate, Obama will be up by 5-10 points by March 4.
This pattern has repeated itself several times since Super Tuesday, and probably would have held that day also were it not for (i) the short period between South Carolina and Super Tuesday, and (ii) early voting in California, which cost Obama a significant percentage of votes he would have received from Edwards supporters who voted early only to see their candidate drop out a few days later, and from others who were shifting their support from her to him over that 1-2 week period. I don't see him committing that kind of gaffe.
February 21, 2008 4:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Unfortunately the Rass results don't consider/ask whether the respondents already voted. That's one of the features I like about SurveyUSA.
February 21, 2008 4:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
You have to be kidding right? Those daily tracking polls have been marked by fluctuations. If Hillary is still up the next few days, or if her lead increases, I'll consider the possibility. But based only on today's result, I remain skeptical that the Michelle story has made a huge impact among Dem voters.
February 21, 2008 4:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually it's now all over.
Susan Sarandon hath spoken:
http://www.thenation.com/blogs/notion?bid=15&pid=287988
February 21, 2008 4:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL! Sometimes I truly wish that "Hollywood-type" people would take George Clooney's lead and stay out of it. They're only feeding into the right wing's hysteria about the Democratic party being the party of the East/West Coast liberals. I appreciate her conviction but I'm not convinced that this is helpful.
February 21, 2008 4:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
I would hate to be lumped in with those darn liberals.
Partial Definition of Liberal from Wikipedia:
Liberalism refers to a broad array of related ideas and theories of government that consider individual liberty to be the most important political goal. Liberalism has its roots in the Western Age of Enlightenment.
Broadly speaking, liberalism emphasizes individual rights and equality of opportunity. Different forms of liberalism may propose very different policies, but they are generally united by their support for a number of principles, including extensive freedom of thought and speech, limitations on the power of governments, the rule of law, the free exchange of ideas, a market or mixed economy, and a transparent system of government.
February 21, 2008 4:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Point taken, Kevin - I shouldn't have used the word "liberal" (although the right uses it to demonize). But I think when Hollywood people get involved to the degree that they do, it's not helpful and just provides an excuse for the right to dismiss the entire party out of hand.
I am proud to call myself a liberal (I don't use progressive, myself) - just saying that I don't think this petition is particularly helpful.
Thanks!
February 21, 2008 6:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
You mean like Fred Thompson, Ronald Reagan, Bruce Willis, Dennis Miller, Chuck Norris, etc.?
February 21, 2008 7:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Any odds on her balling like a baby tonight?
February 21, 2008 4:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think I can agree with you that the McCain flap has captured the media's attention for now. We'll see how much sticks with either flap, but obviously in order of magnitude, McCain's is the larger right now because he is a candidate, and Michelle is not.
But the patriotism question has a kind of separate shelf-life that is like no other. People can forgive a old man's dalliance, but PERCEIVED (I don't know how to do italics in this blog) un-patriotism is harder to forget.
But I hope you are right.
February 21, 2008 4:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
The trend is good for Sen. Obama, but, needless to say, a clear "win" (avoiding the need to have that defined by the Clintons) would be better, since we can hope that this does not drag on longer than necessary.
February 21, 2008 5:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Rasmussen one is important in that they also ran a poll last week that had Clinton up by 16pts.
Since it uses the same methodology across polls, even if the absolute values are off- it does show a double digit gain by Obama in a week.
I would feel a whole lot better if Obama wins TX. If he does and can pull within 5 pts in OH, I think this race is over. Either way though, she certainly doesn't have the 60-70% she needs to help her catch up to Obama in delegates. Without that, theoretically she can beat Obama with 80% of the vote in OH and it isn't going get her far enough.
February 21, 2008 5:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Given that rate (2 per day) I think it might be more a Pepto Bismol moment than a Mallox one.
February 21, 2008 7:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Damn. This was supposed to be in response to the post by Greg DeLassus upthread at February 21, 2008 4:07 PM.
TPM's commenting system still needs some serious major bugs worked out (chief among them being having a preview function).
February 21, 2008 7:35 PM | Reply | Permalink