Poll: Potential For A Huck Upset In Virginia
Today's SurveyUSA poll of Virginia shows that John McCain might have some of the same problems in tomorrow's primary as he did in the weekend contests, when he lost Kansas and Louisiana and was awarded a close victory in Washington State, which Mike Huckabee is now disputing.
Here are the numbers, compared to the poll released on Friday:
McCain 48% (-9)
Huckabee 37% (+10)
Huckabee did well this past weekend due in part to the low turnout, caused by the McCain's virtually-certain nomination. In such a situation, only the most dedicated, hard-core conservative voters even bothered to show up.
And the poll's internals show that Huck is ahead among self-described conservatives, 45%-40%. This means that very low turnout could conceivably duplicate in Virginia the same conditions that marked those other races, thus providing the potential for a Huck upset.
For an example of how such amazingly low turnout can throw off conventional polling models, note that SurveyUSA had McCain ahead by nearly 30 points in Washington State.
I question McCain losing Virginia tomorrow, though it's possible. All the polls show McCain up. We'll just have to see. I find it almost unbelievable that would be any chance for Huck to win Maryland, though.
February 11, 2008 3:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Eric/Greg:
You might want to check the poll tracking numbers, I believe you have the AP-Ipsos numbers transposed. Obama is leading. Also, there's a new USA Today/Gallup poll out today.
February 11, 2008 3:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nevermind. The polltracker is right (I think there was some misinformation out there that showed the numbers the other way).
February 11, 2008 3:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Plus, if there is any truth to the idea that McCain and Obama fight for the same independent voters, Obama is much more likely to get those votes in VA with McCain "a sure thing."
February 11, 2008 3:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Right on point. If an independent in VA wants to make their vote count, they will vote in the Dem primary. It is an open primary there, is it not?
also, be wary the anti-clinton republicans who may vote for her as they realize they cannot beat Obama.
February 11, 2008 4:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Huckmemtum!
Not that it's going to matter, but anything that drags the Republican race out a little bit longer is never a bad thing.
Hey Publicus! How 'bout those Giants?
February 11, 2008 4:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Eric/Josh:
Every time I hit a link at TPM (main site, cafe, election central) I see paid advertisements for Sen. Obama. Its pretty distracting which, I guess, is the point. Is there any conflict of interest in accepting money from a campaign and reporting on a campaign? I don't know the answer, but am just asking the question.
February 11, 2008 5:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bienvenidos to capitalism. when you raise $32M in a month, you can advertise anywhere you want!
February 11, 2008 5:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
There is a "Hillary for President" ad in the right hand column under the Obama ad at the time I am typing this. Furthermore, under each Obama banner ad it says "Ads by Google". From that link:
"What are Ads by Google?
Ads by Google are contextually relevant advertisements that appear beside related content on the page. The web publishers who display Ads by Google are part of the Google AdSense program, and the ads come from Google's base of AdWords advertisers."
February 11, 2008 5:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
We don't believe there is. But let me give you a quick overview of our policy. From the beginning of the time we started accepting paid advertising in 2003, we have followed a strict policy of neither accepting nor rejecting ads on the basis of political content. We think that protecting our editorial independence. And it's why you'll often see GOP ads here at TPM. If we accepted some and rejected others, the ones that ran would have a de facto endorsement. In the case of these Obama ads, they come through Google Adsene and are likely targeted to a political channel. I saw likely because we have the google ad sense scripts on our site and that gives google permission to slot in whatever ads they want as long as they are at or over a certain ad rate. Most likely they're hitting all sorts of political sites. Or it's possible they've asked Google to specifically target TPM. I doubt it's the latter. But we don't know and don't try to find out. The relevant point is that we have no contact with Obama campaign about these ads. We didn't when they'd start; we don't know when they'll end.
If you search on TPM you can find our more detailed ad policy. But that's a rough overview of it. And we believe following these policies preserves the integrity and independence of our reporting.
February 12, 2008 12:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
I've been punching away at the Clintons for a while, and for good reason, but I finally sense their own realization that they have indeed hit the iceberg - and it's just a matter of time. As Virginia (my state), Maryland, and Washington, DC. prepare to vote – I've heard it said as far away as California, that Virginia history, is, US history – one way or another, the State of Virginia will make history again today. It may seem antiquated, in this day & age, for anyone to feel an allegiance to a state. But I know the Texans, and the Buckeyes; as do others, have powerful loyalties to their respective states. I know my influence may be small, but I plan to keep swinging until the lights go out, and that mammoth stern vanishes from sight: http://theseedsof9-11.com
February 12, 2008 1:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
As a recovering Republican [ I left the party when the headquarters moved to Tel Aviv] - I am snickering at the frantic shuffle now that the fix is no longer quite what it was.
Last time, the DEMS gave us a straw man. This time, we were supposed to pick between tweedles dum or dee on the question of perpetual war on Islam.
I can just imagine the pubies prognosticating on the viability factor for Obama last fall - "Aunt Beatrice in Iowa ain't gonna vote no nigger!'
Oh yes she is. American loves a Tiger Woods black man. It fulfills all our hopes and dreams for 'unity' and 'racial harmony' -- remember that?
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
I love what's gonna happen to the neocons. AND I love what's gonna happen to the polls in Israel if they can't kill off enough prepubescent Palis.
tick tock tick tock ... Israel will be one THIRD Muslim by the end of this decade - the end of that phony democracy - and perhaps the end of these lavish schemes to enlist Islamophobes.
1.6 billion enemies and counting. This is gonna be SOOOOOO GOOD.
February 12, 2008 8:43 AM | Reply | Permalink