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Poll: Obama Up By Five Points In Wisconsin Primary
A new Research 2000 poll in Wisconsin gives Barack Obama a small lead going into Tuesday's primary, with 47% to Hillary Clinton's 42%. If Obama wins this primary plus the Hawaii caucuses on Tuesday night, then he'll have had ten big wins in a row, giving him that much more momentum going into Texas and Ohio.
The demographics: Hillary leads 47%-42% among women, but Obama makes it up with a 53%-36% lead among men. The two are in a dead heat for the white vote, with Hillary at 45% and Obama at 44%, while Obama has an 84%-5% lead with black voters, and Hillary wins Latinos 54%-34%.
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However, according to the clintons' campaign, none of those ten wins in a row are in significant states. Apparently, people in those states don't matter, only people in the clintons' states.
February 15, 2008 1:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bottom line: The poll shows Obama with a lead amongst voters.
One person one vote. Why are we alway engaging in the polling tactics of racial and gender apartheid.
They are all citizens and each of the them gets to cast an equal vote.
February 15, 2008 1:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hasn´t Obama won most of his delegates in caucuses? Not really one man, one vote.
February 15, 2008 2:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Works the same way. Every registered voter can attend and cast their vote for the candidate of their choice.
February 15, 2008 4:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama sure as hell better win(and I'm an Obama supporter). He has the Governor's state machinery on his side as well as his own organization. I hope(and expect) Obama to win going away.
This poll is much closer than the final results will be.
February 15, 2008 1:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
He also has David Obey supporting him. I would expectge that Russ Feingold would be on his side, given that both of them were against the Iraq Invasion, and Hillery voted for it.
February 15, 2008 1:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Really? When did you talk to Russ or anyone in his organization last?
February 15, 2008 3:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Look at the breakdowns...Isn't it the case that Clinton, in order to catch up to the Obama delegate count, has to not only win in Texas, but win big?
Those breakdowns suggest a big win (by either) is pretty unlikely.
And I imagine that Texas hasn't even felt the full effect of the Obama campaign, either.
February 15, 2008 1:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
A lot can happen in 3 weeks. I think Obama is getting way to cocky which sort of does not rhyme with "new politics". It just might catch up to him. Four weeks ago Hillary was still inevitable.
February 15, 2008 2:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Once again, none of these polls reflect a huge variable in this contest: same day voter registration in WI.
If the young obama crowd shows up, this won't be close at all.
February 15, 2008 1:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
If it's so close even though Obama leads by 17% among men and essentially tied her among women, what's their projection for the make up of the electorate between men and women. In 2004 according to exit poll,http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/primaries/pages/epolls/WI/index.html , women make up only 52% of the electorate. So I would guess they have women turnout projection at around 60% for 2008.
So what your take on that Eric??
February 15, 2008 1:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Even IF Obama wins Wisconsin, MAYBE she can win the most delegates in that state as they head towards march 4th.
Hillary is going to be in Wisconsin Saturday, Sunday, Monday and Tuesday... i wonder if the polls will tilt in her favor or will obama get a boost.
4 polls have obama winning wisconsin but by a small margin.
1 poll has hillary winning wisconsin but by a small margin.
the polls agree that 8 to 14 % of people have not made up there minds yet!!! Who wins those people over is the one that wins wisconsin.
February 15, 2008 1:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just got back from Obama's rally in Milwaukee. It was a great crowd, with around 1,200 people were in attendence.
February 15, 2008 1:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Vicenzo,
I agree with you two variables(young people and independents) will be the deciding factor that may lead to a blow out win for Obama. Same day registration?? Folks, this won't be close and I am on record saying that. One more point, recent polls have shown McCain with a wide lead in Wi. so expect independents to flock to the Democratic primary and join the excitement.
February 15, 2008 1:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is going to be close. I'll be in Wisconsin all weekend.
February 15, 2008 1:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
YES YES YES! Obama crossed the Clinton line in the Pollster.com graph. I was pretty sure the graphs to the right were lagging a little so I checked.
There's a tipping point coming.
February 15, 2008 1:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
It looks like Hillary is trending upwards a bit too--which means Obama's national rise might start leveling off? I wouldn't be suprised to see a juggling between who has the national average lead over the next few weeks. Of course, in the end national polls are about bragging rights and spin since we don't have anything resembling a national primary system.
February 15, 2008 2:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't forget that Edwards dropped out. So each of them got some of Edwards' support. But from the trend line, Obama's support continues to grow faster than Hillary's does.
Obamentum in WI right now! ♪♪♪
February 15, 2008 2:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary leads among women and Latino's which could help her win wisconsin...but if blacks turn out in record numbers and if republicans turn out in record numbers, hillary will lose.
Michael A.
Do you think wisconsin will be a close race or not and if so why and if not why???
February 15, 2008 1:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Imagine if the black Republicans turn out! Yoinks!
Obama is getting a wider spectrum of people. Quit making it seem like it's just blacks, or that Republicans love him because he's a Republican lover.
February 15, 2008 2:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama has been winning, if we're to follow Mark Penn and Bill Clinton's train of thought, because wealthy people can go to caucuses, while Hillary's people have to work, because it's only black people voting (in South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama) for Obama, because it's only states like Maine (and they're crazy, anyway), Washington (all drunk on Starbucks), Missouri (flyover country), Utah (Mormons, schmormons), Kansas (even more of a flyover country), Nebraska (see Kansas, Missouri), Idaho (brains are probably frozen this time of year because of winter) Illinois (they were stupid enough to vote for him the first time, they're stupid enough to vote for him again), Connecticut (those damn college students keep voting...), because "impressionable elites" just don't seem impressed by Hillary, and finally, because the people who vote for Obama "don't need a president", whatever the heck that means.
It's getting hard for Clinton supporters to marginalize support for Obama. Well, hard to do so and maintain a straight face.
February 15, 2008 2:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, that really, really pisses me off. I hate this commenting system. I just wrote a long post that got lost answering your question. Well, here goes again. One more try.
I really don't understand the clintons' campaign strategy. They have to stop obama's mo and wisconsin is an ideal place to do it demographics wise. That being said why piss off the people of wisconsin by campaigning in texas? Why say the race is on to texas basically ignoring wisconsin? Why say that states like wisconsin aren't significant? These are all really stupid comments, which can only piss off wisconsin voters. Doesn't make sense. Also, waiting to texas and ohio to try to stop the mo, when wisconsin was there, seems kind of short sighted. It may be too late by texas and ohio.
That all being said I think it will be close. Obama by less than ten, if she doesn't pull it off in the end, which she might. I don't forsee a 10 to 20 point win by obama, but it is possible. I did not see the VA blow-out. I really thought it was going to be close and that she might have won that one.
Anyway a long post for a squeaker, but you did ask why.
February 15, 2008 2:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's telling that Hillary's Wisconsin/Texas strategy was created earlier this week during her campaign staff's shake-up--which is why we saw her heading to Texas before doubling back to Wisconsin.
It's clear that these contingency plans should have been considered well before the Potomac primaries, indeed well before Super Tuesday, as soon as it became clear that the clean sweep that Hillary was hoping for never happened. Gotta have a Plan B, folks!
February 15, 2008 2:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree. It's as if they had no plan after super tuesday and there was no way that the race was going to be over on super tuesday. It wasn't possible. They didn't even campaign or advertise in over 1/2 of the super tuesday states. What on earth were they thinking?
It really is amazing, the clintons had everything going for them and from day one this campaign was a train wreck waiting to happen, which is happening now. I wonder if they will get their message straight by march 4. Amazing.
February 15, 2008 2:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
All of which gives you a hint as to how prepared she would be for "day 1" - god forbid!
February 15, 2008 2:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's the thing though, that was at the point the Clinton campaign had to loan itself $5 mil. They didn't have the resources to roll out a robust plan B post Supercalifragalistic Tuesday. They apparently were locked into an earlier devised campaign that was going to roll everyone on ST, which didn't happen. So now they are trying to get the moneys to turn the ship on a dime, while they have been mathematically painted themselves into the corner delegate wise.
Will be interesting to be sure, I just worry they go down ugly and, as Josh put it, carve out there nomination through the heart of the party which would kills us for the GE.
February 15, 2008 3:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Holy hell, ARG has Obama beating Hillary in TEXAS!!
Obama 48%, Clinton 42%
Wow. Granted it is just one, but it goes with others to show big movement. That's not good for Hillary's do-or-die firewall!
February 15, 2008 2:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama will have a lot of help in the coming days from Illinois volunteers going up to help in Wisconsin.
At this point, having crunched all the numbers from Wisconsin, I can safely predict, without fear of contradiction, that on Tuesday the winner of the Wisconsin Democratic primary will be:
The person who gets the most votes.
February 15, 2008 2:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
The delegate situation in Texas is crazy (see http://www.burntorangereport.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=4972) but the basic gist is that it's weighted for places that went strongly for Kerry in '04. That means that we here in Austin have the most clout. The polls for Central Texas are currently 53% Obama - 32% Clinton, but with 50,000 UT students alone, I'd expect it to be a much bigger landslide for Obama than that.
February 15, 2008 2:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oops. That delegate link doesn't work because of the )
Here's the correct link:
http://www.burntorangereport.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=4972
February 15, 2008 2:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
This highlights that Wisconsin is, even by Mark Penn's standards, a state that "matters". There are consituencies there that are strong for each of them, and either is capable of winning. Wisconsin is a good segue into Texas; if Hillary can come on strong over the weekend and keep Wisconsin close, she has at least some shot at making her "firewall" strategy work. If Obama can run away with Wisconsin, I'd expect to see him neutralizing her in Texas and keeping her margin slim in Ohio.
February 15, 2008 2:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not only is Obama only down 6 points in TX but, according to the same ARG poll, he's only down TWO points with Latino voters. This could very well be a result of a whopping 75% of Latino voters in TX being under 40. A rep of Voto Latino said, in TX, Clinton/Obama support is split on generational lines. That tells me that he could do much better with Latino voters.
My immediate family is in San Antonio. My sister says the kids at the local high school are on fire for Obama. Those of age can't wait to vote for him. My mother is deeply involved in a continuing education program for seniors. All the Democratic women are for Obama; most are avid volunteers.
There's a long way to go in the next 2-1/2 weeks but, if I were HRC, I'd be nervous. Obama may still lag my double-digits in OH and PA, but that doesn't tell the whole story. Since the primaries actually started, he's cut the difference at least in half. Her numbers have barely moved while Obama's inch higher.
Though I'm almost afraid to hope - knowing the Clintons will try any way to steal the nomination - I'm starting to think Obama may win it after all. Most importantly, he will have done so on his terms - by working hard for every single vote in every state, thanks to impeccable organization.
February 15, 2008 2:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't buy the burn to orange report. That dynamic exists in all Congressional Districts - there are 3 to 7 delegates per district, and that creates different thresholds for adding delegates.
Even in states that have been close, there has been a lot of concentration by Congressional District, but the net result has maintained something close to proportionality. I think they're underestimating how many places Hillary might have 62.5% in if there were a relatively close race.
The burn to organge report also has a funny way of calculating "up 1" since in most circumstances they are talking about 4 Delegate CDs where if you have 3 delegates, you will be up 2 (3 to 1), not 1. Makes it hard to follow.
February 15, 2008 2:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama has a radio ad running in Wisconsin saying Obama is "the only candidate
who's consistently opposed NAFTA and other unfair trade deals". (The .MP3 file
of the ad is http://obama.3cdn.net/3018e797bcd67faaee_afm6bptnu.mp3, which I
came across at
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/).
This week in Wisconsin, but not in earlier weeks of the campaign, bad-mouthing
NAFTA is a standard part of Obama's stump speech together with words that insinuate that Hillary is too much of a liberal internationalist on trade.
But at the same time, Obama is not giving an explanation of his views on
international trade beyond a couple of brief, empty platitudes.
I believe this week in Wisconsin Obama doesn't say enough, and doesn't say it
with enough clarity, to convert bluecollar protectionists to vote for him -- but
he's saying enough to discourage many free-traders from coming out to vote for
him. Exit polls show Obama's base is better-educated people including better-
educated independents and some Republicans. Most of these people are liberals
(non-protectionists) on trade. If Obama underperforms expectations in Wisconsin
this new feature of his campaign should be blamed for inducing parts of his base
to stay at home. Barely squeeking out a win in Wisconsin is underperforming expectations.
February 15, 2008 2:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bill Clinton told us that Hillary and John McCain love and respect each other. Hillary voted with John McCain for the invasion and occupation of Iraq. The both agree, to this very day, that their votes were not Reckless and Catastrophic mistakes. Hillary and John McCain both voted for the recent Kyl/Lieberman Green Light to attack Iran.
Hillary and John McCain are two peas in a pod.
If you want a choice in the fall, then you better not nominate Hillary.
February 15, 2008 2:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama Rocks
Barack Obama's string of eight consecutive victories over the last week with increasing margins seems to suggest that Obama's message is beginning to resonate with all Americans. The breakdown of voters last night was fascinating. He increased his vote amongst women, white males and Latinos. All three categories will play a major part in Texas & Ohio primaries.
Obama's speech last night in Wisconsin was his best so far. It seems he is just getting going and now there is a possibility that the 'Obama Movement' will capture the hearts of Wisconsin voters where Hillary had unassailable lead until recently. Which begs the question, why is Hillary in Texas and not in Wisconsin, shouldn't she focus on Wisconsin first where the primary is on Tuesday? Some more people in her campaign team need to be fired!
The Americans are taking a good look at Barack and they like what they see. Last night CNN showed Senator McCain's speech immediately after Barack's and what a comparison. McCain seemed tired, unenthusiastic and spent.
If John Edwards is considering endorsing Obama, he better do it soon or he will be irrelevant.
February 15, 2008 2:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama is campaigning all over WI right now. Hillary will arrive at the same time a massive snow storm is supposed to hit much of the areas on her schedule. Bad luck for her campaign I think. Whether it affects her travel and turnout for her events I don't know but it's worth considering.
My view from Madison is that Obama wins this but it'll be close. I think Hillary's strategy may be based on the notion that she'd have a hard time winning here but won't get blown out either so delegate-wise it won't hurt her too much. They know it's all about keeping the delegate count as close as they can and thats why she needs some separation in TX and OH.
Down-ballot candidates in the rural areas of WI want Obama on the ballot this fall. I don't know how much they're working toward that end though.
February 15, 2008 2:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
WHATEVER THE OBAMA BIAS HERE IS RIDICULOUS ...
THE 5% "LEAD" IS INSIDE THE MOE ...
Hillary / Obama is the ticket get used to it ...
THANK GOD FOR THE SUPERDELEGATES!!!
GO HC GO
February 15, 2008 2:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
February 15, 2008
Obama hits Clinton on lobbyist money
Posted: 01:32 PM ET
Obama returned to the trail Friday on the attack.
Obama returned to the trail Friday on the attack.
(CNN) — Barack Obama accused opponent Hillary Clinton Friday of “defending Washington lobbyists” and special interests.
“Yesterday, Sen. Clinton unveiled her latest in a long line of slogans, which argues that she’s proposed solutions while others have not,” said Obama, who returned to the campaign trail in Wisconsin after a one-day break.
He said both candidates had good ideas but that Washington was a place “where good ideas go to die. They’re the victim of petty, partisan politics, point-scoring, and special interest influence that’s out of control. …
“You know, after defending Washington lobbyists as people who ‘represent real Americans’ at a debate in August, Sen. Clinton said yesterday that she would take them on as president,” said Obama, who alleged the New York senator had taken almost twice as much money from lobbyists as any other presidential candidate this cycle.
“That’s not being a part of the solutions business. That’s being a part of business-as-usual in Washington,” said Obama.
The two candidates have been locked in an increasingly bitter war of words as they battle for pledged delegates awarded in primary and caucus votes, and superdelegates, who can shift their allegiance at any time.
February 15, 2008 2:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Again, can't emphasize this enough, WI has same day registration rules:
http://www.wisdems.org/ht/d/sp/i/1131187/pid/1131187
This benefits BO enormously, so I don't think any of this hemming and hawing by HRC is going to matter.
February 15, 2008 3:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
From the ground on Wisconsin...
I think this is going to be extremely tight. It all depends on who turns their vote out. Obama has a pretty good organization. The weather is going to suck. I don't know who that helps if anyone.
I guess my point is not to expect a blowout on either side, and if you are an Obama supporter in Wisconsin, don't stay home on Tuesday.
February 15, 2008 9:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
The ticket is not Clinton Obama and it is certainly not Obama Clinton. She would only hurt him on the ticket because she is too polarizing and people don't like her. The issue of him serving on her ticket will not come up because she cannot beat him unless she lies cheats and steals her way to the nomination. On second thought, since lies cheating and stealing are part of the Clinton playbook maybe she can win.
February 16, 2008 9:10 PM | Reply | Permalink