I'm tired of these polls. They're always wrong!

Agreed. The polls have been incredibly suspect, but I'm encouraged by this. Survey USA has been the most correct pollster during these primaries.

Like anyone trusts polling these days. I'll just say the race is a toss up at this point.

Confirmed. Their last Missouri poll had Clinton (53) Obama (43). Stay away from polls.

I love how the media (who cannot see beyond identity politics) & irrational Hilary backers (who feel her years supporting Bill through infidelity makes her due the presidency) keep raising the bar and minimizing the movement that supports Sen. Obama.

First it was was, "Well, he is only winning cuz of Blacks."

Then it was, "He is only winning cuz of Blacks and young people."

Then it was, "He is only winning cuzzing of Blacks, young people, and higher income educated Whites."

Now its, "He is only winning cuz of Blacks, young people, higher income Whites, and in caucases"

Soon they won't have a constitency except divorced White women between 40-45years old, making 25-40k a year. You cant win an election like that.

I don't know whether this is because he is African American, relatively young, or because they had assumes for the last 6 years she would run unopposed. Whatever the reason it is becoming tiresome.

I wonder what will be the excuse when he wins Nebreaska with its lower income, mainly White population and its primary election. I'm sure it will be something.

Virginia isn't a swing state?

colonpowwow - could win Wisconsin? We did win it in 2004. Colorado, Missouri, Iowa? Not so much.

Virginia is no longer a red state.

Virginia has a Democratic Governor, a Democratic Senator, a Democratic State Senate, and will almost certainly elect another Democratic Senator this fall.

Both Senators + State Senate + Governor means that Virginia may not even be purple, it's more blue the red. If things keep going the way they are currently, the Virginia State House will be Democratically controlled in the next election.

If the State House falls to the Democrats, Virginia will have moved from Red, straight through purple to solid Blue in all of 4 years.

Thanks W!

I'll trust this poll over any Zogby "poll." He made CA seem like a surprise win for Clinton, and the media bought it hook, line, and sinker.. Other pollsters were much closer.

It comes as no surprise that Zogby won't release his sampling either.. F'n hack.

I'll bet Obama takes Wisconsin by 10+ points. Chicago sprawls into Wisconsin, so he has those roots. Iirc, Milwaukee has a large black population, and he should do really well with all the students at the University of Wisconsin in Madison.

The only Big 10 state I can see Obama losing are Indiana and Pennsylvania.. If they hold the Michigan elections again, I'll think he'll take that, if his name's actually on the ballot.

I invite any Hillary supporter to make a case for her electability. To everyone else, it appears she is going for a 50%+1 strategy involving winning the Blue States and "just enough" of the Purple to win. It isn't impossible, at least in theory, but it is the same theory that the last two elections were fought on and we know how well that turned out for us Dems. So, not only is it a high risk strategy, it also failed our side twice now.

How a Democratic candidate does in the Blue States in the primaries is irrelevant---they are STILL going to be Blue in November. The crux of the matter is how a candidate does in Purple and Red States. As a group, Democratic voters in Purple and Red States are relatively more conservative than those in Blue States. Thus, how a candidate does in a primary in one of these states is an indicator of general election potential. It isn't conclusive, but it is pretty much the only evidence we have to look at.

Hillary has some good things going for her, like the health care issue. However, it is clear that as long as her strategy in the fall is going to be 50%+1, the electability issue has to fall in Obama's favor. Now, maybe a Hillary supporter sees a different strategy for the fall, but please share it with the rest of us.

I think we all know what usually happens when you try and fight the last war during a current war.

I know it takes a while for posts to arrive, but nearly 20 minutes after my invitation, all I hear are crickets.

If Obama wins the nomination, the general election will be over by the time he finishes his acceptance speech at the national convention.

Obama has plenty of ideas, and plenty of "substance". But he's a smart guy and knows that talking ad nauseum about policies is not the way to energize an electorate. This isn't about policy.

Call it empty rhetoric. Call it a cult. Call it whatever you want. The basic fact is that he has the ability, as all great leaders have, to rally the people to a common cause. Republicans are not immune to this.

He knows and they know, what this country needs now more than anything is leadership.

What do you think will happen in the General if Obama gets the nod and McCain teams up with Condi?

I have a friend in DC and his sense is that the district is heavily favoring Obama.

Has anyone been following the intrade markets. Since super Tuesday, Obama has basically flipped the market. It was a solid 60/40 for Hillary or more on most days except right after IA. Now its 60/40 Obama. Very interesting as his showing on Tuesday didn't have near the impact on the media as his showing in IA. After IA and with the bogus poll numbers from NH, pundits thought it was all over for Hillary. No one is saying that this week, but the intrades have flipped anyway.

As an aside, anyone who has been following my posts knows I don't like Obama or most of his netroots suppoerters. You might think I like Hillary, but that's not true, either. Wes Clark or Al Gore would have been my choices. I just don't like Obama. He rubs me the wrong way. However, I had a conversation last night that has gotten me thinking. I was speaking to woman about my age (40-something). She had never voted in her life till 2004, which she did because she hated W so much. (Too bad such folks didn't wake up in 2000 when it would have been easier to stop him, but better late than never.) Now she has really become politicized and it all because of Obama. I hear this same kind of talk from the kids at the local cafes all over town. (Its an art school college town, so folks are pretty light on intellect and heavy on passion, IMO.)

That added to the recent polls that show Obama standing a much better chance against McCain than Hillary does give me pause. I still don't think Obama would be a very good president. He doesn't impress me when he is asked off the cuff questions about policy, but that could be offset with a good team around him. However, after I heard that McCain has promised to try to make the Bush tax cuts permanent, I realized that he is just an empty old suit and we would indeed be much better off with Barack than him. So I am gonna watch things closely. The thing about the polls is that they have been way off in predicting the votes of white people in actual primaries (as compared to caucuses or black-dem-majority states). So, I don't necessarily trust polls that show him winning GE matchups. In any event, my state has voted and we voted for him. Point is there is no doubt who I would vote for in the fall if he was on the ballot.

I really could care less about polls. They have been so wrong. They should be banned because of the misconceptions they give people. Let's see what happens Tuesday. That's the only poll that matters. People see this crap and then they think that they don't have to vote. No more polls.

If u care to read good analysis, rather than making mindless stupid comments all the time, READ this article on msnbc.com.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23058132/

ThompsonLives says:

"So instead of posting a straw man, you decide to post incoherent mishmash? Interesting gambit, you charmer, you."

Not as "interesting" a gambit as mindlessly squaking "It's a strawman argument" and speaking to a post by calling it "incoherent mishmash."

That's really well thought out.

If you actually don't understand the point of someone's post, try r e a d i n g i t r e a l s l o w.

Maybe that'll help.