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Poll: Obama Up By 11 Points In Wisconsin Primary
A new poll of Wisconsin by Public Policy Polling (D) gives Barack Obama a healthy lead for next week's primary. Obama has 50% support among likely Democratic primary voters, compared to Hillary Clinton's 39%.
The two are in a dead heat among core Democrats, with Obama at 46% to Hillary's 44%. However, Obama's lead is greatly extended by the support of independents and Republicans, who give him a better than 2-1 margin in this open-primary state.
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That's about what I expected. Expect Obama to power to a win through a very engaged effort from Milwaukee, and, of course, Madison.
Go BADGERS!
I'm sure my alma mater will make proud... A bunch of kooks who went for Nader in 2000... Oh well, no regrets.
February 12, 2008 1:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good news, but not great news. Who believes these polls any more?
February 12, 2008 1:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Greg,
Not all polls are created equal. Unlike ARG, the folks at PPP release their questions and some of their cross-tabs. That gives us a chance to evaluate the poll's credibility, and to extract useful information from it, even if there's some reason to doubt the horse-race number.
For example: The poll discloses that in a normal year, Obama would be up 46-42; the poll predicts a surge in black and young voters that will result in the larger 50-39 margin. That's interesting, and offers an indicator of what to look for in the early exit polls. (If you don't find the increased turnout plausible, it's also a reason to discount these findings.) Also interesting: the poll shows Obama leading among women (46-43) and among registered Dems (46-44). Improving his performance in both categories is important for him, and it looks like he will.
Finally, I think I can predict with a fairly high degree of confidence that this poll understates the actual margin of support for Obama. Like many polls, it shows black support hovering at about two-thirds, in this case 66-24. It seems to be a function of the "Reverse Bradley/Wilder Effect" that I've blogged about before. If Obama gets less than 80% of the actual black vote on election day, you can bowl me over with a feather. That should be good enough to bump his margin by at least a few points.
February 12, 2008 2:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wisconsin doesn't count. It's not NY, MA, or CA.
February 12, 2008 1:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Right, what were we thinking?
February 12, 2008 1:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Where is the SurveyUSA poll of WI? That's the only one I want to see now. PPP, who are they? What's their RIGHT record?
February 12, 2008 1:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
OUCH!
That's going to leave a mark!
February 12, 2008 1:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good news. I hope he capitalize on this.
February 12, 2008 1:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wisconsin obviously doesn't count because Independents are allowed to vote. And it's next to Illinois.
February 12, 2008 1:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
The only states that count from now on are the ones where Hillary wins. All other states are hereby kicked out of America.
Florida and Michigan count, by the way.
February 12, 2008 2:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh wait, this just in:
Wisconsin doesn't count anymore. Fringe state. Minor importance.
Apparently the only states that matter are located in NY, NJ and CA.
Same rule applies for endorsements: If it goes the "wrong way" the person is a jerk, hasbeen, traitor ...
February 12, 2008 1:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't forget Massachusetts! In fact, since both Senators from MA endorsed Obama, MA should count for, like twelve caucuses.
February 12, 2008 2:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Correct Analysis:
Wisconsin doesn't count 'cause they don't count. Only the states that Ick-y poo and Mark Penn bless can be counted.
February 12, 2008 1:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes we can, Badgers.
February 12, 2008 1:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
So much for Hillary in February!
February 12, 2008 1:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
None of these count because it's black history month!
February 12, 2008 4:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not too suprising.
This month was predicted to be very good for BHO considering the primaries and caucuses scheduled this month.
Also, is anyone really surprised he's winning independents anymore?
February 12, 2008 1:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
CAC-
It's still a good thing to win independents, right?
February 12, 2008 1:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Huh. ARG had Clinton up by 9 last week.
Either way, this state doesn't count because it's a caucus. Whoops, no. It doesn't count because Obama can't run well in states with a predominantly white population. Or something.
February 12, 2008 1:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
ARG has been consistently wrong in Clinton's favor from day 1. That they are an outlier here too is not a surprise.
February 12, 2008 1:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wisconsin is going to be a tough state and it will all come down to GOTV. If you are in
Wisconsin, get involved!
Obama '08.
February 12, 2008 1:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Right. The month favors Barack, so it doesn't count. Also his middle name is Hussein so it doesn't count. And independents don't vote in the general so it doesn't count. And he is campaigning there, which is cheating because it makes people want to vote for him, so it doesn't count.
February 12, 2008 1:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
LMAO
February 12, 2008 5:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL.
February 12, 2008 1:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Aneeliz - you forgot to add that he spent more money there, so it doesn't count.
February 12, 2008 1:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bulletin from the desk of:
Mark Poison Penn:
Should Senator Obama win the upcoming Wisconsin Primary we will then believe that those results will mean nothing because we never planned to win there anyway.
The only reason that we are running TV Ads in Wisconsin, is because we had to find someplace to burn off all the excess funds that we have found our campaign drowning in.
Stop The Presses, and get the word out.
February 12, 2008 1:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think throwing these poll numbers around in online discussions is dangerous, especially with how off some of them have been.
It advertises expectations. And when you consider how many there are, and the latitude people take in analyzing them and extrapolating, it amounts to propaganda.
February 12, 2008 2:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
What we may be seeing is the movement of Edwards supporters to Obama. There was general agreement among political observers here in WI that Edwards had, by far, the best organization with many legislators and party officials publicly endorsing him. [Full disclosure: I was one of the people that helped put Edwards' campaign together in WI.] In travels around the state, I learned most Edwards supporters had Obama as their second choice -- and now that is showing up in the polls.
February 12, 2008 2:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
it seems lately the polls have been off. Obama, has been winning by much larger margins than the polls have been predicting. So pay no mind to a poll that has him up by just 11 points, probably he'll do better than that.
February 12, 2008 2:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
tpm gary, you're right. nothing counts until it happens and trusting the polls at this point would be idiotic. Everything changes so quickly. At the same time, i think people are reacting to the fact that if Barack does win WI, the state magically will not count at all.
February 12, 2008 2:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Since independants are generally tougher to get to the polls, I'd suggest that the race is tighter than the raw numbers show. This one could be close.
The jokes on Hillary dismissing states she loses are getting old. All candidates downplay losses - Obama has just been winning more of late, so he hasn't had to.
February 12, 2008 2:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama doesn't dismiss the states he loses - what he does do is state that he wished he had more time to campaign in those states. Just look at what happened after Super Tuesday - Obama said that it was a draw. Clinton, of course, spoke of a great victory.
The point is that the Clinton spin itself is getting old and tiresome. Being able to see through and even predict the spin is never a good sign. She would do better to say, "Yep, we've lost a few now. We need to hit the ground hard, start knocking on some doors. I'm going to fight for this nomination." At some point, it's just laughable for her to dismiss all these states she's losing in. It makes her look like a sore loser and slightly delusional.
But then again, what I think doesn't really matter. I'm college educated.
February 12, 2008 2:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Late update from Hillaryis44.com:
>>It turns out that Wisconsin as a whole doesn't count because there are not the correct number of black people there. We will accept the results of Brown Deer, Waupun, and Fitchburg as statistically relevant, but as a whole, most places in Wisconsin have either too few or too many black people, or else they make too much money or have too much education, or use public transportation (obvious disqualifier there) or have higher levels of fluoride in their water. Thus as a whole, it turns out Wisconsin is meaningless in this primary.
Texas is starting to look less meaningful too. It may simply turn out that this whole primary process-- beset as it is with black people, young people, non-women, caucuses, and the aforementioned fluctuating flouride levels-- has to be "corrected" by the superdelegates.
February 12, 2008 2:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah jokes aside, Wisconsin looks an awful lot to me like New Hampshire and I wouldn't be counting my electoral chickens if I was Mr. Obama. Of course, with McCain not drawing away inds, he may well get over the top, but I don't think it's likely to be an 11 point win. More likely a squeeker and a virtual delegate draw.
February 12, 2008 2:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Excellent, MaddTowne making me proud. I'll be there regardless if we 'count' or not. Obama will be a badger that day.
February 12, 2008 2:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
btw -- I heard Carville on CNN yesterday say something to the effect of "Well, we're not going to take Texas in November." I don't know if he misspoke and meant to say Idaho (or one of the other red states they've marginalized) or if this is early spin since Obama might, in fact, win that state.
February 12, 2008 2:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
November, evie. The general election?
February 12, 2008 4:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm gonna wait to see the results tonight-especially VA before I can get excited.
He has to win all the three primaries tonight by double digit points- to keep in going.
I know VA and TX are open primaries; Is OH a open or close primary? Anyone?
I'm nervous and excited.
February 12, 2008 2:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wisconsin ain't nuthin but a bunch of damn latte sippers.
February 12, 2008 2:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
btw -- I heard Carville on CNN yesterday say something to the effect of "Well, we're not going to take Texas in November." I don't know if he misspoke and meant to say Idaho (or one of the other red states they've marginalized) or if this is early spin since Obama might, in fact, win that state.
They won't win Texas because they won't be in the election. If Hillary loses Texas to Obama, no spin is going to help her. This sucker is OVER.
February 12, 2008 2:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
They won't win Texas because they won't be in the election. If Hillary loses Texas to Obama, no spin is going to help her. This sucker is OVER.
Apparently they use a really weird method to determine delegates. Your vote counts more if your state senate district voted for Kerry in '04. So the heavily democratic districts will do better.
February 12, 2008 4:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Word from a friend of mine on the ground in maryland. A chardonay sipping "white" liberal precinct area had 97% turnout as of 10:30 a.m. this morning. Also, heard on the radio that turnout was heavy. Holy cow!!!!!
February 12, 2008 4:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
So the takeaway here is that in close Democratic primaries, the crossover Republicans are picking our candidate. But why are they voting for Obama if they want to run against Clinton? Unless they're playing mind games with our pre-selected delegates.
February 12, 2008 4:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
The fact that Obama is not over 50% is cause for caution - If it were an 11% margin with 55% Obama and 44% Clinton, this would be better for Obama and worse for Clinton.
February 12, 2008 5:06 PM | Reply | Permalink