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Poll: Hillary Up By 8 Points In Ohio
A new poll from the University of Cincinnati corroborates other polls that have shown Hillary Clinton with a medium-sized lead over Barack Obama. Hillary has 47% to Obama's 39%, with a very noticeable gender gap — Obama leads among men 45%-42%, while Hillary wins big with women at 52%-34%.
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I think actually she will win Ohio, but it will be close. Obama is investing a lot of time there this week to cut into her delegate lead - something she failed to do in a lot of previous primaries.
But I hope he closes the week in Texas, which is where he can actually win.
February 25, 2008 11:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
This sounds exactly right to my ears. Keep it close in OH, win in TX and the delegate gap will just keep widening.
February 25, 2008 12:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
14% undecided. Hillary never expands her percentage of support. She has a ceiling below fifty percent.
All Obama has to do is peel away just 4% percdent from her and they are tied. He is closing rapidly like he did in the last ten contest. Hillary has already maxed out.
Hillery lost in the last ten state contests, Ten in a row. Try spinning that. By the way, to this day, she has never thanked those people who came out and voted for her in those ten states. She did not want to mention the States that she had just lost in so, she decided to snub both those States and all those who voted for her. They will not forget how Hillary dumped on them.
Hillary keeps claiming that she is the Fighter with all the Experience, but Obama has put her down for the count in each of the last ten fights. Looks like Hillery has a glass jaw. She is all Boxing Gloves and no punches.
February 25, 2008 11:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
For the good of the party in November, this charade needs to end soon.
She can't win. She can only hang on as a thorn in his side, attacking and tarnishing him, and helping the GOP.
So the best thing that can happen is a knockout blow. It will help her leave this sooner rather than later, and recover whatever reputation she has left.
So anyone who can should be using the phonebank tools, calling Ohio abnd Texas, and contributing.
I think most of the DNC is now hoping this will be over. It's getting ugly, and that's not good.
February 25, 2008 11:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
9% for Edwards, 4% undecided, Clinton's numbers continuing to fall (as elsewhere) = plenty of room and time for Obama to win decisively.
February 25, 2008 11:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
Keep in mind, too, that while these polls were being taken, Obama was spending most of his time campaigning in Texas -- apparently successfully. Now that he's focusing on Ohio, there's a good chance his numbers will go up there, too.
February 25, 2008 11:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
This week in Ohio the NAFTA issue will either take hold or it won't. If it does, look for a six-to-twelve point Obama victory. Tomorrow's debate may be the only one that actually matters in terms of a primary outcome.
February 25, 2008 12:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wonder what the backlash effect will be on Hillary for the Drudge-dumped Obama Somali picture fiasco.
February 25, 2008 1:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Pollster officially has Obama ahead in TX for the first time. Granted it is only by a point, but I will take it.
I agree, it would be better if he won OH as well because that would land a decisive blow to her campaign - with the GOP already sewn up for a good month, it is time. Unfortunately I think more realisically a 5 point win for HRC which would still be a death blow but maybe more like a stomach shot than a blow to the head where her campaign dies a slow painful death.
However following super tues II, comes WY & MS which should be strong Obama states so hopefully if she doesn't bow out after the 4th, that she gets the hint after that.
If the contest was positive, I would say that an extended campaign would be good to keep the spotlight on them and help voters in non-swing states get to know the candidates. However, since things are getting so nasty - it isn't.
February 25, 2008 1:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well aren't the TMP Poll threads special. They make a big deal about how Hillary has Poll leads in Ohio, but they made sure to not draw to much attention to the new ARG poll that shows Obama 50-42 over Hillary in Texas.
TPM clean up you act. Time to give equal coverage to the poll results from Texas, since Bill Clinton said that if Hillary loses there she is through.
February 25, 2008 2:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
liam, you beat me to it! Hopefully the TPM folks will get around to writing about this soon.
Of course, if TPM were actually in the business of shilling for Hillary, they wouldn't even have the poll numbers on site. Let's give credit where it's due.
Also interesting tidbits from the ARG poll:
* Clinton leads by 12 in Rhode Island;
* Obama stands to get another blowout in Vermont, where he leads 60-34. Ouch.
February 25, 2008 2:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, Liam, do you have a link to that poll? I am positively ravenous for TX poll results of late, and one showing Obama on top would be even better.
February 25, 2008 2:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Whoops, never mind. I see that it just popped up in the poll tracker up top.
Obama ahead in TX!!! This is it kids. We are seeing in real time the movement of TX from "firewall" to "doesn't matter" status. Way to go, TX. I live in MO, and I can assure you that not mattering to Mark Penn is a great feeling. :-)
February 25, 2008 2:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Liam,
I noticed that AP also posts the Ohio results, but not Texas. What gives? BTW, I hadn't noticed any particular TPM bias. What are you referring to? The blogging on this site is overwhelming for Obama.
February 25, 2008 2:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
The ARG polls are suspect. A few days before the WI primary, they had Clinton up in WI by 8 points which was obviously ridiculous. ARG polls tend to get disregarded a bit since they have a suspect record. (Although to their credit, they quickly released a follow-up WI poll that had Obama up by 10 which was the 2nd closest poll to the actual results.)
More interestingly, Rasumussen has Obama trailing in TX by only a point. This is a 2 point gain from last week where they had him trailing by 3 pts - which was a gain of 13pts from the week before that. Looking at trends from the same polling outfit I think provides the best look at what is going on as the methodology is likely consistent from week to week. So pretty much TX is a dead-heat which is a win for Obama since what HRC needs is a big win for delegates.
February 25, 2008 2:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
This feels like it's coming down to a TX-VT and OH-RI split come March 4. That means that the race will slog on into PA and elsewhere - regardless of what Bill Clinton said about TX. In other words, the split result will give Hillary plausible grounds to keep going. That means the race will get nastier and nastier as it goes - not good for the tone of the convention or general election prospects. It would be much better if Barack could blow Hill out of the water come March 4, but it don't look like going in that direction.
February 25, 2008 2:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
I would not be surprised if Sen Clinton were to win OH, but I would hardly be sleeping easily right now if I worked in the OH Clinton campaign. Obama still have a very good shot of winning there if present trends keep up.
February 25, 2008 2:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow, the PPP Ohio poll just popped up. That's what I want to see! Newfapalooze, what's the take on PPP polling for quality?
February 25, 2008 2:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
PPP is pretty good not super but reliable, although I take all polls with a healthy grain of salt this year as they have all had clunker moments.
February 25, 2008 3:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not 10 in a row, 11. Democrats Abroad's primary concluded on Feb 12th with a win for Obama.
While not technically a state, neither was the Virgin Islands which is in that 10. Democrats Abroad also had more votes than the Virgin Islands, North Dakota, Idaho and Alaska and with close to a 50% turnout, arguably had the highest turnout of any primary or caucus.
Also, Democrats Abroad had a correction on the delegate count. It was 3 to 1.5, not the original 2.5 to 2.0 they first posted (as it happens, one cell out of roughly 10,000 in an Excel spreadsheet at a formula error that miscounted Spain's results - once they found that, that shifted the vote enough to make a change in the delegate totals)
February 25, 2008 3:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary Clinton’s colossal failure of imagination seems to stem from the fact that she made her bones on Richard M. Nixon, but Mrs. Clinton then proceeded to model her political life on Mr. Nixon’s (without the pantsuits, of course). Although, burning through tens of millions of dollars of other people’s money on campaign frivolities, political non-sequiturs and empty hyperbole, is signature Clinton – I don't think it will wash in this highly contested primary. Neither Clinton it appears has had any real competition until now. The challenge makes them compete; that makes them angry: http://theseedsof9-11.com
February 25, 2008 5:14 PM | Reply | Permalink