Don't listen to the poll gods. They've been wrong this campaign season.

49 to 41, assuming undecideds break in relative proportion, is 54% to 46% (out of 100%).

Texas has 193 pledged delegates; assuming they are distributed in roughly the same proportion as the vote, that's 105 to 88, or a 17 delegate net gain for Clinton.

Obviously, both of those assumptions are oversimplistic, but...

Obama currently has an 83 delegate lead, including supers, and a 140 delegate lead among pledged delegates.

I think she's hoping for a lot more than 49-41.

Wonderful news for Clinton. At least Texan Democrats aren't dumb enough to swept along with the so-called media driven 'momentum'. Either that or Obama's 'speeches' will start to ring hollow and people will start expecting specific policies instead of inspirational rhetoric.

If Ms. Clinton has maintained her lead after latest round of primaries, she should hold on, if not increase it.

GO CLINTON GO!

Good news. That's a margin that is surmountable in 2-1/2 weeks.

He hasn't even started campaigning in Texas, and he has a big endorsement in Texas which should give him a boost. Three weeks off, he could potentially damn near tie her, potentially. Granted all he has to do though is get within maybe 15% and she is done. Hell, even if he gets less than that she is still done.

Did you know that Hillary Clinton's biggest donors include Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, Lehman Brothers, and JP Morgan Chase & Co. -- the biggest corporate banking / subprime loan companies out there?

Did you know that Hillary Clinton's plan for bailing out Americans with subprime loans also bails out the corporate bankers who gave them the loans, who won't have to deal with getting 50 cents on the dollar in expensive foreclosure proceedings?

Did you know her plan not only bails out families who own only one home, as Barack Obama's plan does, but also bails out wealthy real estate speculators who own more than one home, who used subprime loans to make money flipping houses?

Did you know that her plan locks real estate speculators in with low interest rates, but will lead to higher interest rates for all new homebuyers, putting even more money into the pockets of corporate bankers?

Hillary Clinton is a corporate banker's best friend!

By NEDRA PICKLER, Associated Press Writer Fri Feb 15, 5:42 AM ET

MILWAUKEE - Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton desperately wants meaningless wins in Florida and Michigan to turn into votes she can count on. It won't be easy with the Democratic National Committee rules standing in her way.

The DNC is refusing to back down from the tough sanctions it imposed on the two states, which held early contests in violation of party rules. They have been stripped of all their delegates to the national convention in August where either Clinton or rival Barack Obama will be nominated for president.

The DNC has offered Florida and Michigan a couple ways out in compliance with party rules. First, they could hold second nominating contests, but Democratic leaders in both states reject that idea. Or they can appeal to the DNC's credentials committee, a 186-member body that usually operates in obscurity and has a complicated membership and rules process that will require deft maneuvering in this divided campaign.

Just like the some-800 superdelegates, this committee could hold the cards in helping decide the Democratic nominee if the race stays close.

Clinton's campaign insists the delegates should be seated in accordance with more than 2 million votes cast in the two states last month.

"I think that the people of Michigan and Florida spoke in a very convincing way, that they want their voices and their votes to be heard," Clinton told reporters. "The turnout in both places was record-breaking and I think that that should be respected."

Clinton did not object to the DNC stripping the states of their delegates when the decision was made last year. Some of her backers were on the committee that made the decision to do so and actively supported it.

"Now, when they believe it serves their political interests, they're trying to rewrite the rules," Obama campaign manager David Plouffe said in a call with reporters.

As of Thursday, the delegate count stood at 1,276 for Obama and 1,220 for Clinton. If the DNC were to award Michigan and Florida's 313 delegates based on the vote in their primaries, she would be ahead because she won both states.

That would be unfair, Obama's campaign says, because the candidates had promised not to compete in those renegade states.

Clinton's operatives want DNC chairman Howard Dean to come up with a resolution, but Dean is staying out of the fight for now. Dean spokesman Karen Finney said Florida and Michigan still have a choice to follow the rules.

"At this point, there are still more than 1,000 pledged delegates to be determined and 33 percent of our party has yet to have the opportunity to have their voices heard, so it would be premature to speculate," Finney said. Dean declined an interview request.

Most of the credentials committee members will be appointed by the Clinton and Obama campaigns, depending on how they perform in nominating contests across the country, with Dean having already named 25. Although Obama has won more contests so far, Clinton has won most of the larger states — and larger states get more seats. So there's the potential for the committee to be closely divided if the race stays tight.

The credential committee would meet in July or August, and its decision would be in the form of a recommendation to all the delegates at the convention. They have a range of options to consider, including recommending reinstatement of all or some of the delegates divided any way they see fit between Obama and Clinton. The recommendation would become the first order of business at the convention on Aug. 25.

One Clinton adviser, speaking on a condition of anonymity, said there are no legal options to pursue in courts, which give parties wide latitude in crafting their rules.

The Clinton adviser suggested a compromise where perhaps the Michigan delegates could be split evenly among the two since Obama's name wasn't even on the ballot there. But the Florida delegates should be bound by the primary results, the adviser argued, because Obama's name was on the ballot in that case. The Illinois senator didn't have the option of removing it like he did in Michigan.

That's a compromise that the Obama campaign would be unlikely to accept without a fight. And Florida Sen. Bill Nelson, who has been leading the fight to get his state's delegates reinstated and is backing Clinton, said he doesn't think it will matter. He suggested he would just like to see the delegates seated, even if they aren't favoring Clinton.

He said he is encouraging the DNC to at least declare that the Florida delegates will be seated regardless of who they are awarded to so at least they can make their travel plans to go to Denver.

"The likelihood is one way or another we're going to know the nominee by late June at the latest, in which case it will be then moot about who the delegation is pledged to and all of that," Nelson said.

Michigan and Florida had moved up their dates to gain prominence in the presidential selection process, but ironically they would be more relevant if they would have stayed put. Florida was originally scheduled to vote March 4 and Michigan on March 9, and both would no doubt have been pivotal in the hotly contested race between Clinton and Obama.

___

Associated Press writers Kathy Barks Hoffman in Lansing, Mich., Brendan Farrington in Tallahassee, Fla., and Matt Apuzzo in Washington contributed to this report.

http://www.pollster.com/08-TX-Dem-Pres-Primary.php

Track the trend of the ITV polls here. The gap is closing. Not that Hillary's support is dropping, but Obama is slowly rising. Looks like he's going to have to cut into her base if he wants to win TX.

Do the math. All Senator Obama has to do is to take away four points from Hillary and they are tied. Makes that 8 point lead not all that big, doesn't it!

This is really good news for Obama, who was behind by 10% in the last Texas poll, and who hasn't even started campaigning in the state.

Obama's grassroots efforts are very strong though, especially in Dallas and Austin. Lots of Texans are looking at Hillary Clinton's sweep through southern Texas as pandering to the "pro-illegal immigration" Mexican-American community, while ignoring the needs of ordinary Texans, so I think her tactics in the state are cutting both ways.

For every Mexican-American vote she gains, it wouldn't surprise me if she loses half a vote from somebody else who resents such politics that threaten local jobs in the middle of a recession.

This is just more bad news for Hillary.
Now maybe if she was up 48%...
But we've seen the pattern and she has nowhere to go but down.

A loss of Texas for HRC means the nomination battle is over.
When she does lose Texas I hope that we see her carry on.
Not for herself but for the remaining voters.
Of course she might want to spare herself further heartache even though she needs to recoup her loan to her campaign.
Nah, she'll fight on.

And of course, HRC having lost Texas, all the worry about FL and MI and super delegates will evaporate. Thank god for that!
FL and MI will get seated, there will be a first split vote at the convention for form's sake, then a rapid second vote and unanimous coronation of Barak Hussein Obama as the third Dem presidential nominee in a row to go down to defeat in the GE.
Oh well.

At least Mark Penn will finally be dragged from his coffin, into the daylight, and a stake driven through his shriveled black heart.
So as an HRC fan I've got one thing to look forward too!

Actually, living overseas gives me a certain distance from the American media and that actually helps one look more objectively at the evolution of the whole process of choosing a candidate. If you have never lived overseas, it's hard to understand how one's perception of one's own country changes.

It should be said that in general candidates of 'center-right' parties in France and Germany are the equivalent of (what's left of) the American left. Both Clinton and Obama would be seem as moderate to conservative in what they propose. The overwhelming majority of Americans I know living in Paris are, of course, Democrats. Most Europeans (especially the British) consider Americans to be politically very naive. With the help of Moveon and CNN, Obama just might walk away with the Democratic nomination -- which, of course, would be the Republican's (corporate America's) dream. All of this comedy about McCain not being conservative enough...is just that. All this comedy about 'Hiliary's tear' or 'Obama not shaking her hand.' is seen as ridiculous...

Obama is seen as just too inexperienced... especially when put up against someone like McCain (with 28 years of experience to reassure nervous Americans who, as much as pretend to want change...deep down are fearful of it). McCain versus Obama is a no brainer. McCain versus Clinton (who offers a combination of change with familiarity) would be close...but still possible. I don't think that a lot of young people (even after two botched elections) how DIFFICULT it will be to get the deeply entrenched Republicans out of office. You don't need a crystal ball or a Rasmussen (TOTALLY unreliable) poll to see this.

- Sound of crickets chirping -

markkraft? Are you here?

Here's a really good breakdown of the Texas numbers (via AmericaBlog), which seem to report that even though Clinton is ahead by 8 right now, Obama could gain more delegates than she would based on the sub-samples and districting:

http://www.burntorangereport.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=4972

McCain and Huck are in a tight race as well - that should be interesting to watch!

Dem in france: "Oh yes, the so-called 'cross over' voters should 'help' Obama. Dream on. In other words, Republicans who pretend to be 'intrigued' by Obama but whose real interest is to split the Democratic party in two. Apparently Romney's win in Michigan was partially due to crossover Democrats who wanted to sink McCain."

Mich is meaningless. Dem primary votes were already declared null so no doubt some Dems crossed to mess with the Repubs. But there has been consistent crossover in othe caucauses and primaries of Independent and Repubs voters crossing over for Obama. Everyone here knows that - I'm surprised you don't since it's been consitently noted in news reports. That's one of the reasons he's won so many more states than Hillary. Texas is an open primary and Obama will certainly benefit from that.

As for your other post about overseas: I know an awful lot of Americans living abroad - Italy, UK, Israel, France, Switzerland - most of them are already pro-Obama and very excited. I wouldn't say that's a scientific analysis, just I think your view is your view, not necessarily representative of most ex-pats.

Senator Obama leads in the popular vote tally of all those states that have voted so far. One person one vote, and more people have voted for Senator Obama than Senator Clinton.

I live in Houston and here is how the voting is breaking down in my area with friends/family/co-workers:

Friends(2) - Jamaicans - Clinton, White - Obama.

My Wife - Venezuelan and most of her fellow expats - Clinton.

Family - African American and White - Split 50/50 Obama/Clinton with older generations favoring Clinton.

Co-Workers - predominantly Central American and Mexican are favoring Obama.

Also, one other point, conspicuously absent from the post touting the lead. The last IVR poll dated 2/1 had clinton at 49 and obama at 38. Therefore, in two weeks, clinton lost 1 point and obama gained three. Even just maintaining the same trend, on election day the poll would read clinton 47, obama 44. And this is with no campaigning by obama yet, not looking good for the clintons. Go obama.

Don't forget the racists and woman haters who are going to vote for Edwards as they did in Louisiana. Texas has more delegates, but Ohio and Pennsylvania are going to be more persuasive to super delegates. That said, I think she needs to beat him by more than 10 points in Texas to claim Texas as a real victory. Texas has the Hispanics, and it's had Ann Richards. The argument that women dance as well as men and do it backwards in high heels still has some traction there.

Texas is a semi-open, not fully open, primary which could alter the independents and republicans leaning Obama slightly.

After hearing some of what Obama has been preaching to the empty masses who are in need of something to fill the hole left by the last 8 years of the Bush whitehouse, its a little easier to understand why these Obama cult followers are so crazed.

To try to get them to listen to something as boring and mundane as logic, policies, programs, etc., is like trying to teach disciples of Christ, calculus. They don't care. They're mesmerized and they're loving it. They don't even care if it means taking our country down with their swoon in mass.

Like those who followed Jim Jones to that little island and drank the Kool aid, these people are mesmerized by such slogans as:

"We are the ones we've been waiting for." (Cheers, applause.) "We are the change that we seek." These people actually buy into this empty rhetoric. Facts? When they keep bathing in such a nice warm sudsy bubble bath such as that, who wants to be bothered with mere facts?

"We are the hope of the future," sayeth Obama as written by Charles Krauthammer in today's Washington Post. We can "remake this world as it should be." Believe in me and I shall redeem not just you but your country -- nay, we can become "a hymn that will heal this nation, repair this world, and make this time different than all the rest."

How do you top that with mere truth or fact??

As Krauthammer wrote: "Obama has an astonishingly empty paper trail. He's going around issuing promissory notes on the future that he can't possibly redeem. "

So what do you do with these people? The same thing that has to be done with Rev. Moon followers and any cult victim, DE-PROGRAM them. The problem is, when you have such masses that have fallen victim to such mass hysteria, you can't really do that. The last time we had such a phenomena was in the days of Hitler. Hitler too, enthralled his followers with such a passion that they marched in mass to follow him right off the cliff.

Hillary needs to show the emptiness and folly of this approach by Obama and to reach people BEFORE they are programmed by this empty rhetoric. Catch them BEFORE they innocently drink the Kool Aid and its too late. Our country is at stake!

Read the article at: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/art...his_spell.html

Rae

Am sure Obama will get a lot more than 65% of the black vote... Texas will be very close... Bad news for HRC, who needs to make a significant dent in the delegate lead...

Has anyone else looked at the Pollster.com trendline for TX? Not to be vulgar, but Obama's trendline could do promo spots for Viagra right now. He still has more than two weeks to go, which is an eternity in politics, but I have to say that her "firewall" there is starting to look like dry tinder to my eye.

While I agree that the Clinton campaign will spin the results out of Texas in one of those scenarios accordingly, it will not hold weight in the media. The story will simply be the "firewall broke" or some variant of that title. That said, if Clinton wins, and by a good margin (I am thinking 10-plus points), all of the conversation about Obama momentum goes out the window.