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Poll: Hillary Only Up 4 Points In Ohio
A new poll from Public Policy Polling (D) shows the Ohio primary to be at its narrowest margin yet from any pollster. Hillary Clinton still has the lead, but it's a bare 50%-46% edge over Barack Obama.
"Hillary Clinton is in big trouble," said Dean Debnam, president of PPP, in the polling memo. "As recently as a week ago many polls in the state were showing her with around a 20 point lead. The race is trending heavily toward Obama and time is on his side with another eight day before the voting."
From the internals: Hillary leads 55%-42% among women, while Obama leads 51%-45% with men. Hillary leads 56%-40% among core Democrats, while Obama is ahead 64%-33% with independents and 80%-13% among crossover Republicans.
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Don't believe any of these polls, they breed complacency..
February 25, 2008 2:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Eric, why aren't you guys doing any postings on Texas? There have been polls and info about texas but no posts? Texas is what twice as big as ohio and everything has been about ohio. Also, there has been a ton of early voting in texas that is being ignored. Seems kinda odd.
February 25, 2008 2:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
The results from PPP were pretty accurate for Wisconsin...
In the discussion of the poll results, it's noted that Obama is benefitting from McCain being the presumptive Republican nominee--so more republicans and independents were going to vote for him than would otherwise. Wonder how that squares with the matchups between individual Democratic and Republican candidates?
February 25, 2008 2:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
PPP doesn't have a great track record, but looking at those internal numbers, they don't seem unrealistic
February 25, 2008 2:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Check out PPP's numbers for Wisconsin. They were accurate there.
February 25, 2008 2:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow. Clinton was up by 11 points this morning at 9:00 am. By 11:00, her lead was down to 8 points. And now, her lead is down to 4.
At this rate, Obama should be in the lead by dinner time.
February 25, 2008 2:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
A TEXAS POLL HAS OBAMA AHEAD!?!?! and one has him only 1 pt behind!!!!
February 25, 2008 2:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Indeed, that was the news that really had me excited this afternoon. Ahead in TX! We are watching in real time as TX moves from "firewall" to "doesn't count."
February 25, 2008 2:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
She needs to get out now. The Party has an election to win
February 25, 2008 2:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
My brother lives in Houston...They're going ape in HTown
Obama's going to take Texas going away and it looks like he'll either take Ohio outright or at least keep it close enough for a net wash in delegates
February 25, 2008 2:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama is going to win Texas and Vermont handily, Ohio is going to be close, Hillary may win the state by a very small margin it will depend on how many independents and republicans show up, RI is too much controlled by the old democratic machine, so I'll give that to Hillary as a consolation price. Hopefully Hillary will do the right thing and yield the nomination to Obama next Tuesday night.
February 25, 2008 2:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
I note that RI is also the most Catholic state in the nation, and I am given to understand that Clinton is doing well among Catholic voters (goodness only knows why), so perhaps her wide lead there is also a testament to her demographic advantages in the state.
February 25, 2008 3:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama is going to win Texas and Vermont handily, Ohio is going to be close, Hillary may win the state by a very small margin it will depend on how many independents and republicans show up, RI is too much controlled by the old democratic machine, so I'll give that to Hillary as a consolation price. Hopefully Hillary will do the right thing and yield the nomination to Obama next Tuesday night.
February 25, 2008 3:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
The polling details show HRC leading 56 to 38 among whites. Even with the substantial lead BHO has with black voters the math doesn't seem to add up to account for a 50-46 result overall. If the population is roughly 85% white and 12% black then the math to get to 4% total seems a stretch to me without there being a design error in the demographic sampling.
February 25, 2008 3:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not all of those white voters in TX are likely democratic primary voters. Indeed, well over half of them are would-not-vote-for-the-democrat-if-I-watched-him-descend-from heaven-on-a-cloud-of-angels voters. As such, to note the fact that Texas overall is ~85% white and only 12% black is to miss the point of this survey. What matters is not the racial makeup of Texas overall, but rather the racial makeup of the Texas democratic primary electorate.
February 25, 2008 3:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks Greg - although I wasn't referring to the TX poll in my post, I know that what you are saying here is also true in Ohio.
My main question regarding the sampling in the PPP Ohio poll was because the state had a 2004 voter turnout of 79% white vs. 18% black (which I should have referenced instead of the total population). 2004 is obviously ancient history as far as this election cycle goes (comparatively at least) but assuming that the voter turnout is going to be more heavily influenced by blacks in an open primary, independent rich, blue state seems like a stretch to me.
I know that actual voter turnout has been particularly tough to predict for these contests; I'm just trying to get my head around the math required for Obama to only have a 4% deficit in Ohio when HRC leads white voters 56-38.
Thanks again for reading and responding to my question though - I haven't posted here before but I'm an avid reader and your posts are always helpful!
February 25, 2008 4:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
p.s. My sampling question aside - I still hope this poll is right! I live in San Antonio and think Obama very well may win TX. It would be incredible if the gap closes this much for Ohio, even if he doesn't win there.
February 25, 2008 3:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
They've already started discounting Texas - now they're saying she can't lose both, as opposed to she has to win both. Let's see if Ohio keeps moving - be fun to see what they say then.
February 25, 2008 6:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
And they will point out that Bill didn't say she had to win both - he actually said, if she wins both, she could be President. That implies though doesn't require the opposite to be true.
February 25, 2008 6:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm getting out my crystal ball (please hold one sec). OK, I have it out. This is what happens:
Obama by 7% in Texas
Clinton by 2% in Ohio
Clinton by 8% in RI
Obama by 19% in Vermont
Oh, I also see her packing up a yellow business suit. That's all for now.
February 25, 2008 6:43 PM | Reply | Permalink