A bit of rain is starting to fall on half of the Clinton firewall. Suppose their camp can HOPE Texans are huge anti-plagiarists.

James Carville has already said that this is over if Hillary doesn't win both Texas and Ohio. He has been an avid supporter of hers, so I suspect he knows what's up.

Here's hoping for that win, urbinato! w00t!

Texas will go to Hillary BIG time.

This poll is not reliable.

Former Virginia State Governor Douglas Wilder; Virginia's first African American governor, told CNN’s Wolf Blitzer that he thought Bill Clinton's recent comments, injecting race into the Democratic primaries, had indeed hurt Hillary Clinton's chances. The polls certainly reflect that. Doug Wilder mused over Bill's self-appointed role of speaking for all African Americans. Wilder says, during Hillary's tenure as First Lady, nothing had been done regarding health care. Wilder went on to say, repeated calls and visits by his staff and himself for information about the Clinton health care package, to tell his constituency and local business leaders, had all been met with stonewalling and secrecy by the Clinton White House. Wilder goes on to say, if super delegates and backroom deals usurps the will of the voter, the 1968 Chicago Democratic Convention will pale by comparison to the 2008 convention. The Clintons have had much, much more than eight long, well-paid years to effect the very changes they’re now clamoring to make: http://theseedsof9-11.com

I've taught in Texas. Believe me, there was a distinct pro-plagiarism current among my students, at least when it came to homework ;)

Pass the kool-aid, Rae!

I just got home from four hours working the phones for Barack. Of the 50 or so people I talked with today, there was exactly one Clinton voter. The consensus in the room was that people are not only supporting Obama, but are also wildly enthusiastic about him and about his candidacy. Most are planning to vote tomorrow, the first day of early voting. It will be interesting to see what happens when Barack actually arrives in Texas.

Given the way that Texas delegates are apportioned, a 50-48 split might well leave Obama ahead in delegates.

Look for the Clinton team to do so CYA saying that it's only important if Clinton wins the popular vote in Texas, not how many delegates she gets.

Unless it comes out the opposite, in which case Penn, Ickes and Williams will say that the delegate counts are more important than the delegate votes.

Can anyone clarify the phrase "likely Dem primary voters"? Does this mean they only polled people registered as Democrats, or they polled people likely to vote for a Democrat, regardless of actual registration?

Obviously, in an open primary (semi-open in TX, I guess, whatever that means) the distinction is important.

- K

Clem here on the big island of Hawaii -- got signed up today to caucus tomorrow in a tiny town on the southernmost tip of the island out in the boonies -- the lady who registered me said that the last time the town had a caucus there were three participants, then she showed me her stack of current registration cards of a couple of thousand or more for tomorrow's caucus! The Obama wave has hit HI too! And btw, according to the Honolulu newspaper the official results won't be announced until MARCH 3! (Not sure if there'll be unofficial results before then.)

"Dan, I will not be ignored!"

Leave Rae alone. It's tough to see your candidate of choice eat a shit sandwich, and Hillary's got a sizable turd panini to chew through. For the record, I predict that Obama takes WI by at least 5 points, HI in a landslide (duh), TX by the narrowest of margins, and loses OH. But if he wins TX, it's done.

Unless Hillary pulls a Lieberman. Hey...maybe they can run together! If HRC can detach the vise-like liplock Lieberman has on McCain's manly buttocks, that is.

If Hillary loses to Obama, do you think she'll pull a Lieberman on us and run as a third-party candidate? It could be like "Clinton/Lieberman - Hawkish Independent Democrats for the Status Quo". Or maybe she could choose Bill as her running mate and campaign on a pro-dynasty/anti-change ticket.

MSM is going over the top from NYT to ABC NEWS (not surprisingly) with the plagiarism story-
Obama used the words of Patrick Deval with permission.

I can't believe Hillary camp leaking a totally ridiculous story a day before the election. Especially, A$$HOOLE Reporters of ABC basically made it a front page story.

Ridiculous!!!!

Can't wait to see the headline "Clinton Era Ends"

Looks like the fat lady is clearing her throat for sure. Unless of course, we find out that all likely Democratic voters in Texas are sexist, who live in a red state anyway, and they have weird delegate selection rules noone can understand, unless they are people who don't need a president, becasue they drink too many Lattes from Starbucks!!!

As with many states, Hillary's big lead evaporates as election day approaches and voters focus.

The problem is that HRC IS behind by a sizable amount. She is behind 130-150 pledged delegates. The supers don't matter at this point because there are enough left that will swing the election to whoever finishes ahead and is most electable vs McCain- which at this point is Obama.

HRC needs to win in OH by at least 20pts and TX by more because of the system. Right now she is up a max of 15pts, more likely less than 10pts with 2 weeks to go. If she doesn't she is almost completely mathematically eliminated from even being close in the pledged delegate count and even PA can't save her since NC has almost as many delegates and is favoring Obama by double digits.

Bottom line: Obama can survive if she wins both as long as they are within 20 pts. It would be better if he won TX but if not, the closer the better.
Hillary MUST win both by 20pts.
She may pull out the OH win by that much but TX is looking more and more difficult and without TX, OH doesn't mean much.

I notice how in the latest Rasmussen, McCain is leading Obama by 16 points in Florida, and leading Hillary by only 6 points. That's a huge 10 point difference in a state that Democrats desperately need to carry to win the next election. This is in spite of the fact that Obama's been getting great coverage and is currently on a roll.

Obama is a paper tiger and a disaster waiting to happen. Instead of highlighting how infatuated Democrats currently are with Obama's well-financed personality cult, TPM would do better to point out the very real electoral danger ahead if Omama gets the nomination.

That's a huge 10 point difference in a state that Democrats desperately need to carry to win the next election.

First, Democrats don't need Florida to win the next election. Second, Obama is behind Clinton there because he hasn't campaigned there yet. In all other battleground states where both Obama and Clinton have campaigned, Obama runs 15-20 points better than Clinton.

Its true, Guy. What Obama is going to do to McCain's Bush-hugging, Baghdad-strolling Bomb-Iran singing, tax-cut-for-wealthy-supporting, anti-hope, old-guard, zombie-supported campaign is going to be pretty awesome to watch.

dfx13, I've been a Democrat all my life and I'm not young. I'm an Obama supporter but will support the party's nominee (although I'm extremely disillusioned with Hillary Clinton). I don't think the party's supporters are telling you anything about your experience and pride in the party's history. I think some Democrats are dispirited about the party. I know that Democrats have long been superior to Republicans on every issue, but too many have sold out and timidly spouted the Republican line, either because of big money interests or because of fear that the country had tilted rightward and they wanted to be re-elected. This year, it's obvious that ties to big money may be lucrative, but won't necessarily win the day, and that there's no reason to out-conservative the conservatives to win. This year, a plainly liberal and sensible political agenda can win if it's brought to the people with a touch of possibility. That's what Obama brings to the table: sincerely Democratic values PLUS the potential to win. There's a lot to admire about the Clintons - I worked for him, voted for him, and defended them both through thick and thin. But now it's time for them to take their rightful place in history. Past history.

Billy,

Honestly, it's very hard to make reasonable argument if you compare him with Milli Vanilli and reduce him to an “American Idol,” and a performer. Elitists, who use a book on the shelf to claim their authority on intelligence, often feel the need to preclude the “common man” from political discourse for their own self-preservation.

While you accurately present a sorry statistic from- let’s say- a Newsweek article you read in the last month or two and use it as a witty statistic to support a cynical world view- I think it’ll be more helpful to engage the young (including myself) in the national and political discourse.

I work here in New York with some of the most under privileged children - and believe me they can use some hope because they’re already engulfed with cynicism and desolation, and probably they’ll very soon join the 23% statistic you cited.

While Krugman & Co. declares Obama supporters as a "cult," most of us are aware Obama has no magic wand- and if I messaih is my final resort, I would cast a write-in ballot for Jesus McCain Christ or Virgin Hillary Mary.

But it’s time to give a chance to someone new- who is new in more ways than one. While “Intellectual you” see Obama as an empty suit, “dummy me” sees in him an thoughtful and progressive leader- a politician with merits that outnumber his flaws..

And I do believe words matter in reengaging this country.

I can’t wait to read the headline “Clinton Era Ends.”

More importantly, I can’t wait for the day when the world- especially Middle East and Africa- read the headline “President Barack Hussein Obama.”

Please continue to share your unparlleled political intelligence to make us all less ignorant.

Ouch, SurveyUSA just released a poll that has HRC ahead by 5 points. (50-45)
One poll= outlier, 2 polls are more like a trend.

Polls have been a bit crazy in this election but the story still seems to be the same - Obama is closing the gap...quickly.
Odds of HRC pulling out the boffo win she needs to make up ground on BHO in delegates is getting slim indeed.
She will probably still win in Ohio, but if she loses or ties (more or less) in TX, she will need to get more than 80% of the votes in OH to gain the delegates she needs.

Hillary takes Wisconsin and Texas!

Apparently people are starting to see Obama's clay feet.