Interesting. A salutory warning for us Obama types, this. We should not count a chicken before it is hatched. To the phone-banks, ye Obama partisans!

Uh-oh. Time to buckle down again.

It's a data point, but hard to draw conclusions from just this one piece of data. Especially when, on the same day, we have polls that contradict this conclusion. Average it in with the Rasmussen poll and you have a dead heat.

Chalk it up to MOE. This race is too close to call.

You call that momentum? A poll that doesnt agree with most other recent polls?

This is the definition of momentum:
http://www.pollster.com/08-TX-Dem-Pres-Primary.php

That's quite the conclusion to draw from a single poll. When all of them start moving that direction, I'll start to wonder...if all of them show a 20 point lead, I'll get concerned, but without that she is dead in the water.

It wouldn't make sense for her numbers to start moving after she basically shit on Texas, left for Ohio, and hasn't done anything spectacular. Obama won the debate, she looked petty and agitated, and Obama has only continued to pick up endorsements in Texas.

Sorry, here's the link:

http://blog.hillaryclinton.com/blog/main/2008/02/28/144227

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/poll_insideradvantage_texas.php#comments

Obama supporters should read this and breathe easy. Lots of things wrong with that poll.

Over at Pollster.com, someone noted that this same firm had Obama finishing well back in Iowa and Wisconsin.

Momentum? Come on, get a grip. The difference between this poll and IA's previous poll is well within the margin of error, meaning this MIGHT be a sign of movement or it MIGHT just be noise. You really need more polls or a more dramatic change before you start declaring "momentum." Any student of Statistics 101 knows that.

BenjaminOMeara - I don't know that I would go pointing to the Pollster comments for people to read. What a bunch of low level commenters - it's ugly over there. I'll stick with the intelligent discussion on this site.

At this point, however, it is an outlier so we'll see what other polls come out. In the meantime, it gives supporters good incentive to phone bank.

I read BO is headed to RI on Saturday...really?? Can't we just concede that one and all of its handful of delegates? I want Texas!

By the way, someone yesterday posted a couple of links that I just loved regarding the state of play in TX. Check them out.

http://www.texasmonthly.com/blogs/burkablog/index.php
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/2/26/122346/110/347/464432

THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS!! FOR HILLARY!!!

!!!HILLMENTUM™!!!!

Excellent. Hillary is on a roll. The latest poll from Antarctica shows that she is closing the gap on Obama among the Penguin communities, even though they are scared of the Ice Queen, and they shiver when ever she show up to speak to them.

ABC Evening News Reported that an Obama Source(Charlie Gibson was at Obama Headquarters in Chicago today) has said that the Obama campaign has raised over Fifty Million in contributions in February.

This is Excellent News for Hillary. So says Idiotic.

POLL: Obama Has Momentum In Texas.

A news Rasmussen poll shows Obama with momentum.

All of these polls, Insider Advantage included, show a tight race and all, or almost all, are within the margin of error and show a decent undecided %.

What does this say - both campaigns have to work hard all the way through Tuesday. Obama should remember New Hampshire and Clinton should remember Wisconsin, Virginia and many others where many polls showed her close (single digit) to Obama.

And it also says a Headline like "Poll: Hillary Has Momentum In Texas" is ridiculous and misleading.

PBS News Hour did a feature today on the early voting trends in Texas. The early voting numbers are running at about four times the rate that they were in 2004. The turn out is very high in the communities where Senator Obama is showing the greatest strength. On the other hand, the turn out is much lower in the areas where Senator Clinton is showing the greatest strength.

I will leave it to Idiotic to interpret what this means for Senator Clinton

Any pollster that hypes movement inside the margin of error as "momentum," or even movement, automatically undermines its own credibility. What a joke.

dfx13 - "Why won't somebody put this sick, dying dog to sleep? Hillary Clinton is one of the worst people on the face of the earth....The Clintons should be destroyed forever..."

Holy crap. Dial it back. And by the way - I'm sure you were being facetious, but this:

"Wake up American and destroy the Clinton Monsters before it is too late. Kill! KILL! KIIIIIIILLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL!!!"

Way, way over the line.

People-

I agree that IA is overdoing it by saying she has the momentum, but dont take it out on TPM/Eric. The headline says "Poll: Hillary Has Momentum In Texas" not "Hillary Has Momentum In Texas." Theyre simply quoting the (as already discussed, quite flawed) pollster.

"To the phone-banks, ye Obama partisans!"

Yes, my thoughts exactly.

Hop to it!

Like Hussein-o-Rama, this looks like it's being propogated by those who have the most to gain from a Hillary resurgence (apart from the candidate herself).

Charles Clay: former GA GOP head; "Joined" Rudy sometime last year (only to unjoin him earlier this year)
Pierre Howard: longtime GA GOP pol
Towery: His credentials are listed in this report

This poll and its finding reek of smarm.

Yeah, it makes me chuckle to hear trolls ramble about how Obama's not a "fighter" when he's effortlessly parrying a combined assault from both the Clinton and Republican machines.

Lol.

Nothing like having a spreadsheet, the Internet, and a touch of OCD to generate a few laughs out of nothing.

According to Pollster, Insider Advantage has polled six primaries so far. Below are, left to right, the state, the days between Insider's last poll and the election, the difference between Insider's last number for Hillary and her actual percentage of the vote and the difference between Insider's last number for Obama and his actual percentage.

Anyone see a pattern?

Days Hillary Obama
AL 1 -1 20
GA 3 -5 16
IA 7 -1 16
SC 11 -4 14
TN 3 -4 6
VA 5 -2 12

Feel the Hillmentum(TM)!

HEadlines do matter so do not excuse the headline - the headline leads one to believe hillary has momentum and it in NO WAY indicates that this is a quote from the pollster.

Phony poll results do not amount to a momentum shift. That has been the difference in the Obama and Clinton campaigns. One has depended too much on smoking mirrors instead of allocating more energy to consistently their getting their message out. I predict that Hillary may win Ohio, but will lose in Texas.

What's with the few early voting polls showing Hillary with the slight advantage?
I have been under the impression that the areas that are way up were considered safe territory for Obama, but if the early vote is going to Hillary, then maybe those areas are not so safe?

This poll might or might not be BS, but I've seen a definite change in the media since the weekend. It's not they're being any nicer in their coverage of Clinton, but that they've tried to "balance" their coverage of Obama by running all the smears she's been peddling since Super Tuesday. I feel Obama needs to come down more strongly in the next day in order to dominate the weekend coverage, either himself or via both Kennedy and John Lewis.

More tangental, but shame on John Edwards for keeping so silent about all the smears. I was really expecting some sort of statement of rejection/denouncement.

Please, I encourage everyone to go to Obamatruth.org. You'll be able to see Obama for who he really is.

"If these trends continue over the coming days, then it might be fair to say the race is slowly drifting Clinton's way," said pollster Matt Towery, a former close aide to Newt Gingrich. "For now, I think it's at least fair to say that has turned momentum, to some degree, back in her direction."

How's Nader doing in the polls?

How credible is the Insider Advantage poll? I would put my money on the Rasmussen released also yesterday 2/28 poll which has Obama leading Hillary by 4 points in Texas.

I never talk about it because no one else does. And honestly it kind of scares me.

I am concerned about another "9/11" type of event in our country if the Dems pull off the presidency...guess I am one of those crazies not quite sold on those towers coming down by jet fuel fire.

I know that Scientific America came out debunking the whole conspiracy theory, but my extremely "science literate" friends shake their heads at what we were told happened.

Building 7 pancaking the exact same way the towers went down?!...Come on, that alone screams INVESTIGATE!

Marvin Bushes association with Securacom...(the company who had the security contracts for the trade centers and Dulles Airport prior to the attacts)...I just dont know.

Not to mention a ton of other weirdness, and unanswered questions.

AFTER the elections, it would be awesome to see netrooters seriously revisit the entire 9/11 scenario.

I emphasize AFTER, because you know what they can do IN THE MEDIA with the "CRAZY CONSPIRITORS" in any way shape or form supporting a candidate.

It amazes me to see how a respected blog like TPM gets taken over. First the race baiting Wilentz documented, then the déjà vu Repub-like talking points flyers trashing universal health care, then the CTV revelations...
but they're still bloggin for him and trashing her. Guess they think their Red State strategy à la McGovern is unbeatable

Waiting... waiting for some more polls to come out to see if this Insider Advantage one is full of it.

That one and Rasmussen's Texas poll was done on the very same day and Rasmussen's had essentially the opposite results.

Maybe Insider Advantage's projection model is adding more women, Hispanics, or whites than others. Maybe they are expecting less men and African Americans. Maybe their projection model has a higher percentage of voters that have voted already, which gives the edge to Clinton. Maybe all the above. Maybe they're just full of it.

Zogby now shows Obama up by 6. I think I'll take the latter of last paragraph as the explanation for Ins Adv.

unity and change. that what the man's promising. imo, he's the most divisive candidate out there. if you look at this from a policy point of view, do you really believe republicans, even moderate ones are gonna come around to the pro-choice, pro-same sex union, anti-war stance? i'm a very liberal democrat who laughs at the idea of red states and blue states turning magically into something purple. unity SOUNDS great. it ain't gonna happen. and the way obamatons are treating the hillary supporters, you get your bottom dollar that a significant majority of hillary voters will drift to mccain. you know why? if you look at his policies, he's not a bad guy. he's been a POW for 5 years. he's got experience, which regardless of what people say, matters. would you hire a babysitter for your precious children with no references, a history of drug abuse, and no experience in child development? if you would, then don't blame your husband who was weary of te babysitter in the first place, when the kid burns his hands on the stove. and change? both hillary and obama are promising the same exact things. most of these issues and ideas obama stole from clinton platform. HILLARY is the BEST candidate for the job. she's worked hard her entire life, she's faced significant challenges, was at ground zero comforting families, firefighters and cops after 9/11. she's an intelligent person with massive foreign policy experience. she won't be spending the first two years of her presidency meeting world leaders;she already knows them. she can defeat mccain. she is battletested. you don't think the republicans are saving up all the dirt they've uncovered on obama for the general election? they've got a lot to work with already: tony rezko, his ties to iraqi government officials, his flip-flopping views on NAFTA, and the list continues to grow. VOTE HILLARY FOR PRESIDENT 2008

It's time we let the true
Democrats from each state select the candidate of their choice! I see the numbers and it appears to me that Obama has only won 3 traditionally Democratic states by large margins: Illinois (home state), Wisconsin (1 hour from his home), and Hawaii (birthplace). He did win Connecticut barely, Delaware (racial divide) and Washington Caucus but tied in the Washington primary. It does not take a rocket scientist to see that the large Republican populations in his other victories have crossed over! (Except in Iowa and Missouri where it was Illinoisians that propelled him to slight wins). If you want to debate me on that, consider that I live in iowa on the eastern border and surprisingly, most folks in my caucus were visitors staying with relatives. Yeah! Remember the Karl Rove meeting with Obama in October. A-ha! Elections 101: Win by Cheating by Prof. Rove

Let's look at Democratic Strongholds: NY, NJ, CA, NM, MI, TN, WV, RI, PA Hillary, Hillary Hillary.

So, who is choosing the Democratic nominee? C'mon Texas and Ohio Democrats Republicans are afraid of Hillary and rightfully so. She has turned NY Republicans into Democrats. Former upstate Republicans from NY campaigned for Hillary in Iowa!

I was torn between Obama and Hillary at first until I actually did my research and was not mesmorized by the talk. (Remember . . Hitler was a great speaker). I invite you to do the research. Let me help settle some myths:

Myth 1: Obama does not take PAC $$. Why does he have money channeled through the Presidential election fund daily that can be traced to Exxon/Mobil and their peers? Look it up!

Myth 2: Obama is anti war: Check out his speeches and votes. He said he supported the Senate vote to go to war in his 2004 campaign for Senate. He also has an absolute record of sending money to Bush for continuatiion of the war.

Myth 3: Obama supports equal rights: When the sexual orientation equality in employment vote came before the Illinois congress, Obama voted "present" to avoid his riffs with Syrian supporter Rezko!

Myth 4: Obama is for the people. How many times have you already heard him say that he would operate by his convictions as President. Hhmmm. Isn't the job of president to do the will of the people. Hasn't Bush operated by his own convictions?

So you see, this Obama snake oil being marketed reminds me of some empty bottles I already have fallen for. But not this time! He is a liar, a bigot, a coward, and a slumlord! Not the change I seek!

If he is the nominee in November, This Democrat votes for McCain! You Obama folks will either thank me or understand why someday! But I stand for TRUE Democratic change:

Go Hillary! Let me vote Democratic in november!