Poll: Hillary Has Momentum In Texas
Most current polls show Barack Obama taking the lead in Texas, but one pollster argues that Hillary Clinton has in fact regained the momentum in the race. Here are the latest InsiderAdvantage numbers, compared to their previous poll from Monday:
Clinton 47% (+1)
Obama 43% (-4)
The internals show Hillary expanding her lead among Latinos, holding steady among whites, dropping slightly with women but making gains among men.
"If these trends continue over the coming days, then it might be fair to say the race is slowly drifting Clinton's way," said pollster Matt Towery, a former close aide to Newt Gingrich. "For now, I think it's at least fair to say that has turned momentum, to some degree, back in her direction."















Interesting. A salutory warning for us Obama types, this. We should not count a chicken before it is hatched. To the phone-banks, ye Obama partisans!
February 28, 2008 6:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree. Look, this poll is almost surely bogus and the pollster is clearly in the tank for Hillary, having donated the maximum of $2,300 to her campaign.
http://fundrace.huffingtonpost.com/neighbors.php?type=name&lname=Towery&fname=Matt
But even without this poll and even recognizing that the momentum is clearly on Obama's side, he's still behind in Ohio and virtually tied in Texas. Every vote will matter as even a close victory by Hillary will give her an excuse to prolong the race and make things easier for McCain. So we need to work hard to make sure we end this contest on March 4th.
February 28, 2008 8:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
^^^^ READ THIS COMMENT ^^^^
Absolutely absurd. Hillary hires her own pollsters to make her look good...
February 28, 2008 10:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Momentum schmomentum.
Correct me if I'm wrong in any of my figures, but I believe it's the case that, on every single day that we've had primaries or caucuses, Obama has never lost in the delegate count. Below are the delegate numbers, with Obama first, then Clinton:
1/3 (IA) 16 - 15
1/8 (NH) 9 - 9
1/15 (MI) 0 - 0
1/19 (NV) 13 - 12
1/26 (SC) 25 - 12
1/29 (FL) 0 - 0
2/5 (SuperTuesday) 842 - 828 (11 still to be decided)
2/9 (LA, NE, WA, VI) 105 - 56
2/10 (ME) 15 - 9
2/12 (DA, DC, MD, VA) 111 - 57.5 (6.5 to be decided)
2/19 (HI,WI) 56 - 38
So how can the Party, looking at these, make the extraordinary concessions Clinton threatens to ask for, unless Obama has a complete breakdown or the heavens open and angelic choirs crown Hillary somehow?
February 29, 2008 12:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
On her website, Hillary is quoting a poll giving her a whopping lead among Latinos in Texas"
February 28, 2008 6:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is completely random, but is there a way I can get a larger image of your picture? I have a friend who is a huge Buffy fan and would love it.
February 28, 2008 10:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Uh-oh. Time to buckle down again.
February 28, 2008 6:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Momentum? That is stretching it a bit to far.
February 28, 2008 6:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's a data point, but hard to draw conclusions from just this one piece of data. Especially when, on the same day, we have polls that contradict this conclusion. Average it in with the Rasmussen poll and you have a dead heat.
Chalk it up to MOE. This race is too close to call.
February 28, 2008 6:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Whose "internals"?
Clinton campaign pollsters?
Frank Luntz maybe?
The Repubs definitely want her to be the nominee, which will just about guarantee a MCCain win and a HUGE loss for the country and the world.
February 28, 2008 6:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
What's your evidence Pjay? I've looked at polls, futures markets, ect. and haven't found anything that would definitively suggest one candidate would have a substantially better than the other. I don't necessarily disagree with, but I would like to see the evidence.
P.S. I voted and plan to caucus for Obama.
February 28, 2008 7:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
You call that momentum? A poll that doesnt agree with most other recent polls?
This is the definition of momentum:
http://www.pollster.com/08-TX-Dem-Pres-Primary.php
February 28, 2008 6:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
The ONLY one showing her to be ahead is the "insider advantage".
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/tx/texas_democratic_primary-312.html
February 28, 2008 6:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's quite the conclusion to draw from a single poll. When all of them start moving that direction, I'll start to wonder...if all of them show a 20 point lead, I'll get concerned, but without that she is dead in the water.
It wouldn't make sense for her numbers to start moving after she basically shit on Texas, left for Ohio, and hasn't done anything spectacular. Obama won the debate, she looked petty and agitated, and Obama has only continued to pick up endorsements in Texas.
February 28, 2008 6:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
"On her website, Hillary is quoting a poll giving her a whopping lead among Latinos in Texas"
By the Numbers: A new Latino Decisions poll has Hillary up by 41 points over Sen. Obama among registered Latino voters in Texas (62-21)."
Right that's the same pollster here who gives Obama a 7 pt. lead overall in TX. Insider is an outlier!
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/02/28/pcp_poll_obama_opens_up_lead_in_texas.html
PCP Poll: Obama Opens Up Lead in Texas
A new People Calling People survey in Texas shows Sen. Barack Obama with a 7-point lead over Sen. Hillary Clinton, 40% to 33%. The survey's margin of error is 2.42%.
However, in a poll of voters who said they had already cast ballots in early voting for the Democratic primary, Clinton led Obama, 41% to 38%, within the subset survey's margin of error.
February 28, 2008 6:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry, here's the link:
http://blog.hillaryclinton.com/blog/main/2008/02/28/144227
February 28, 2008 6:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/poll_insideradvantage_texas.php#comments
Read the comments guys. There are lots of things wrong with this poll and the people are Pollster explain some of the theories.
February 28, 2008 6:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/poll_insideradvantage_texas.php#comments
Obama supporters should read this and breathe easy. Lots of things wrong with that poll.
February 28, 2008 6:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry for the double post.
February 28, 2008 6:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you for that.
February 28, 2008 7:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
I thought I rcognized the polling firm. They've performed horribly to date.
That said, I am treating Tuesday as if Obama is down 25 points in all of the polls. Time to hit another donation and the phone banks...
February 28, 2008 8:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wouldn't be surprised if women move back to Hillary quite strongly, not because they want her to win, but because they want to say they voted for the first, viable female candidate.
Personal anecdote. One of my female friends has been wearing a Barack Obama pin for months. Then on Super Tuesday, she voted for Hillary.
"What gives?" I asked.
"I knew Barack would win Illinois, so I just decided to vote for the female," she answered.
Could this be happening en masse? Barack's already been anointed, and so women figure they'll play a bit with their vote because "it won't matter anyway"?
Will the Obama camp push back hard with an "every vote counts" appeal?
February 28, 2008 6:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
When my friends say stuff like that, I stop talking to them :)
February 28, 2008 7:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Over at Pollster.com, someone noted that this same firm had Obama finishing well back in Iowa and Wisconsin.
February 28, 2008 6:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
And it showed her winning by 12 in MO. And him winning by only 1 in GA. They arent too hot.
February 28, 2008 7:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
I did some research and those comments are actually not true.
They did one poll in Iowa which was totally off, but it was done a week out.
They did not poll in WI
Some other results I found:
GA 2/2 Obama 51-36%
AL 2/4 Obama 45-43%j (not too close there)
VA 2/7 Obama 52-27%
TN 2/2 Clinton 55-35%
February 28, 2008 10:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
It never ceases to amaze me how people pick up things without looking at the full picture. I work in research and am a statistician by trade and this is what is known in the biz as AN OUTLIER. Granted all polling is subject to sampling error but that is why you look at multiple data points and even still it depends on the assumptions that the methodology is based on (i.e voter turnout, voting segment turnout, inclusion of
As we have seen numerous times in this race that the assumptions underlying the polls don't always translate to voters so all polls should be interpreted with caution but to hang on this ONE poll as momentum is stupid. It may be accurate or it may not but if it is right, it isn't due to momentum.
Besides, as long as she doesn't win by 20pts, it doesn't matter because she can't catch up to Obama's delegates otherwise.
February 28, 2008 6:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just to clarify - I was knocking Insider Advantage who put out the momentum junk not TPM or commenters.
February 28, 2008 7:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, their definition of momentum is comparing their current sample, with a sample taken 5 days earlier.
February 28, 2008 10:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am usually critical of titles like this, but in this case the title was not "Hillary has momentum in Texas!" it was "Poll: Hillary Has Momentum In Texas". It seems like a subtle difference, but it is actually substantial. All he is really saying is that a poll is saying that Hillary has momentum in Texas. Compared to their poll of a few days ago, it showes her gaining support and him losing support (pretty much within the MOE). At the same time today, Rasmussen released a poll that says the exact opposite, which is that Obama has gained and Hillary has lost in the same period.
What does that tell us? Nothing. If at this point you are still putting your money on every random poll coming out being an exact example of what is happening in this race you are a jackass, no offense. However if you are looking at trends of all of the polls put together, balanced with trends within polls taken over multiple pollings, then you get the picture a little better. If you are an Obama supporter and this title bothers you, please go here: http://www.pollster.com/08-TX-Dem-Pres-Primary.php
see... feel better now?
February 28, 2008 7:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually the poll does not say Hillary has momentum. The pollster - who should know better than to qualify a modification of a few points within the margin of erros from one poll to the other "momentum" - does.
The poll just show them within the margin of error as it did on Monday.
February 28, 2008 7:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ummm...Eric? You been reading drudge these days? This title is a far stretch from momentum, and if TPM is taking on a style like drudge then it is hitting a low point.
February 28, 2008 7:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
this "news" is BEGGING for comment from a certain Hillary supporter...
February 28, 2008 7:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Momentum? Come on, get a grip. The difference between this poll and IA's previous poll is well within the margin of error, meaning this MIGHT be a sign of movement or it MIGHT just be noise. You really need more polls or a more dramatic change before you start declaring "momentum." Any student of Statistics 101 knows that.
February 28, 2008 7:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
I gotcher momentum. I live in rural appalachian Ohio(ya'll can say "poor baby" here), Bill was at the local univ last week, HRC was at the local day care center this morning, our demographics call for classic poor, blue-collar, low educational level conservatives. On the way home, I saw *5* yard signs- every one for Obama.
I went to UT- Austin will balance out every vote HRC gets anywhere else in the state (including my parents). And Ohio will pull this off for Obama.
February 28, 2008 7:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
BenjaminOMeara - I don't know that I would go pointing to the Pollster comments for people to read. What a bunch of low level commenters - it's ugly over there. I'll stick with the intelligent discussion on this site.
At this point, however, it is an outlier so we'll see what other polls come out. In the meantime, it gives supporters good incentive to phone bank.
I read BO is headed to RI on Saturday...really?? Can't we just concede that one and all of its handful of delegates? I want Texas!
By the way, someone yesterday posted a couple of links that I just loved regarding the state of play in TX. Check them out.
http://www.texasmonthly.com/blogs/burkablog/index.php
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/2/26/122346/110/347/464432
February 28, 2008 7:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Skim the Obamaniacs and the Hillbots and you will see the handful of intelligent regulars who have interesting perspectives because they are people who know about polls. Stick to the first 15 comments.
February 28, 2008 7:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
You noticed that too? And people were being pretty ugly about just a POLL.
February 28, 2008 10:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS!! FOR HILLARY!!!
!!!HILLMENTUM™!!!!
February 28, 2008 7:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for the chuckle... like an old friend popping up putting a sh*t-eating grin on your face ;) The 'idiotic' posts take a while to grow on you but once they do....
OT but for another good chuckle, head over to
http://www.homelanddecency.com
Or go to the Amazon site for the book "Department of Homeland Decency", click the "Search Inside" logo and read the first few pages.
The authors were interviewed on Peter B. Collins's show last night -- a SCREAM.
IMHO, of course.
Back now to our regularly scheduled bickering.
February 29, 2008 2:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
If you want the interview podcast:
Here's the Green 960 AM (San Francisco) podcast page.
You want 2-27-08, hour 1. Starts at 20:30
The first 20 minutes covers the blackout in Alabama of the CBS 60 minutes piece on Siegelman, and some of the foaming right-wing hate (Michael Savage et al) being thrown at Obama, plus an interview with Eric Boehlert of Media Matters on the vapidity of the debate questions, what's not being discussed at the debates (like, oh, FISA), and so on. Worth a listen. IMMHO.
February 29, 2008 2:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
Just had to post a little more from the Department of Homeland Decency.
Their motto: "You have nothing to fear if you have nothing to hide. You have nothing to hide if you have nothing to fear. So fear nothing and you need not hide. Hide nothing and you need not fear."
There's also a tip line so you can report your indecent neighbors to the Department.
From the book -- Article I: Decency Trumps Privacy (Or, Your House is Our House).
While DOHD believes a man's home is his castle, decency trumps privacy in all matters of the Homeland.* DOHD has the keys to every castle, including yours.
*Privacy, a quaint idea first articulated by secular humanists and hedonists, is little more than a blanket thrown over indecency in an attempt to hide it.
Sometimes ya gotta laugh, sometimes ya gotta cry.
February 29, 2008 3:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
Excellent. Hillary is on a roll. The latest poll from Antartica shows that she is closing the gap on Obama among the Penguin communities, even though they are scared of the Ice Queen, and they shiver when ever she show up to speak to them.
February 28, 2008 7:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Excellent. Hillary is on a roll. The latest poll from Antarctica shows that she is closing the gap on Obama among the Penguin communities, even though they are scared of the Ice Queen, and they shiver when ever she show up to speak to them.
February 28, 2008 7:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Liam, would you say it's too cold there for a brass brazier?
February 28, 2008 7:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Now Now. We will have none of that titillation talk Sir! Wink Wink, Nudge Nudge, No what I mean eh, No what I mean?
February 28, 2008 7:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Latino woman from Texas said the problem with Obama is he is black. Hillary was asked if she would denouce or reject the statement, she said no. Later I understand her campaign denounced the statement.
February 28, 2008 7:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is untrue. As soon as she discovered what the woman said, Hillary "denounced AND rejected."
February 28, 2008 9:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Are you sure? Because I thought she rejected it, but did not denounce it.
February 28, 2008 11:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Your characterisation is unfortunately incorrect, Clinton did not reject or denounce or anything inbetween when she heard about it--which was right there in the interview. I am not too bothered about that, really. Supporters say dumb things all the time.
What is really unfortunate, though, is that Clinton is not rejecting her support (which Obama explicitly mentioned of any offers from Farrakhan.) As her presser explains, "The campaign later issued a statement: "After confirming that [the statements] were accurately portrayed, Senator Clinton, of course, denounces and rejects them." That will bite her in the ass.
Via Politico:
February 28, 2008 11:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, now that I think of it - this kind of press is actually pretty good for Obama. Expectations are certainly raised so lowering them so he can 'wow' the MSM with a win will work just fine.
February 28, 2008 7:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
ABC Evening News Reported that an Obama Source(Charlie Gibson was at Obama Headquarters in Chicago today) has said that the Obama campaign has raised over Fifty Million in contributions in February.
This is Excellent News for Hillary. So says Idiotic.
February 28, 2008 7:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why won't somebody put this sick, dying dog to sleep? Hillary Clinton is one of the worst people on the face of the earth. Her husband went to DC for the sole reason of dividing the country and creating the most partisan political environment in the universe. The Clintons should be destroyed forever because she is mean and he is kinda mean too.
These polls just don't reflect the awesomeness of Obama. Lots of people have looked Presidential, but nobody has looked Obamial until now. Wake up American and destroy the Clinton Monsters before it is too late. Kill! KILL! KIIIIIIILLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL!!!1!!!111!!
February 28, 2008 7:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
I find this comment offensive on many levels.
I support Senator Obama, and I really dislke Senator Clinton, but your comment is way over the top.
I get a strong sense that you are trying to make Obama supporters look bad?
Maybe part of the alleged 35 million dollar allocation?
February 28, 2008 8:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
I find this comment offensive on many levels.
I support Senator Obama, and I really dislke Senator Clinton, but your comment is way over the top.
I get a strong sense that you are trying to make Obama supporters look bad?
Maybe part of the alleged 35 million dollar allocation?
February 28, 2008 8:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Whoa there, dfx. Find your happy place, take your meds, and maybe take a break from that ol' computer keyboard... for, say, 7-8 months. Just a suggestion.
February 29, 2008 2:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
POLL: Obama Has Momentum In Texas.
A news Rasmussen poll shows Obama with momentum.
All of these polls, Insider Advantage included, show a tight race and all, or almost all, are within the margin of error and show a decent undecided %.
What does this say - both campaigns have to work hard all the way through Tuesday. Obama should remember New Hampshire and Clinton should remember Wisconsin, Virginia and many others where many polls showed her close (single digit) to Obama.
And it also says a Headline like "Poll: Hillary Has Momentum In Texas" is ridiculous and misleading.
February 28, 2008 7:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
PBS News Hour did a feature today on the early voting trends in Texas. The early voting numbers are running at about four times the rate that they were in 2004. The turn out is very high in the communities where Senator Obama is showing the greatest strength. On the other hand, the turn out is much lower in the areas where Senator Clinton is showing the greatest strength.
I will leave it to Idiotic to interpret what this means for Senator Clinton
February 28, 2008 8:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ross Perot 08?
Also, whoever wrote the headline, you should write one about another poll with the same criteria that came out today, that said Obama +4. This headline is a little misleading, considering how inaccurate IA is.
February 28, 2008 8:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS!! FOR HILLARY!!!
!!!HILLMENTUM™!!!!
He's a friend of mine. He gave me the line.
February 28, 2008 8:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
I will leave it to Idiotic to interpret what this means for Senator Clinton
EXCELLENT NEWS!!! FOR HILLARY111!!!1
GO HILLARY!!!!!
...oh damn, Genghis got there first.
February 29, 2008 2:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
Any pollster that hypes movement inside the margin of error as "momentum," or even movement, automatically undermines its own credibility. What a joke.
February 28, 2008 8:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey Eric -
There ya go again with the misleading titles and in this case it's a whopper of an exaggeration.
There's NO momentum. It's one poll, by a polling firm that has a horrid track record and the only question I still have is when you saw it, did you get a little wet with excitement?
Is that why you didn't investigate a little further.. you know.. to add some proper caveats?
Jeez.
February 28, 2008 8:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
As an Obama supporter, I am loving the relentless spate of attacks coming from all quarters against him: Clinton, McCain, Bush, the nation of Canada. It works so effectively at not only reinforcing his strength and preeminence as the guy to beat, it illuminates a critical common denominator among his detractors: fear. Fear of not only losing this race, but fear of the shifting political, social and cultural plate tectonics that have propped up our experience for the past 30 years.
Gone will be the Bush foreign policy that has killed and maimed so many and disgraced our great nation in the eyes of the world. Gone will be a society structured around strict racial and ethnic lines. Gone will be the pointless political tit-for-tat-ism that defines our modern era. Gone will be idea that there is only one face to America. Gone will be the cottage industry that has built up around partisanship. Gone will be triangulation and doublespeak. Gone will be on-the-fly candidate reinventions during the course of a campaign. Gone will be the idea that only the rich and privileged can reach the highest ranks of our political system. Gone will be the era of political dynasties that lock our leadership inside the same two families for decades. Gone, gone, gone.
This is why they're all attacking. And this is why Barack Obama matters so much.
So don't sweat every little poll that swings momentarily away from him. They'll swing back. Just keep the pressure on. Talk to everyone you know in Texas, Ohio, Vermont, and Rhode Island who is somehow still undecided. And don't waste any breath putting down McCain or Clinton or Bush or Canada. Focus on the message.
We are the ones we've been waiting for.
February 28, 2008 8:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
dfx13 - "Why won't somebody put this sick, dying dog to sleep? Hillary Clinton is one of the worst people on the face of the earth....The Clintons should be destroyed forever..."
Holy crap. Dial it back. And by the way - I'm sure you were being facetious, but this:
"Wake up American and destroy the Clinton Monsters before it is too late. Kill! KILL! KIIIIIIILLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL!!!"
Way, way over the line.
February 28, 2008 8:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
People-
I agree that IA is overdoing it by saying she has the momentum, but dont take it out on TPM/Eric. The headline says "Poll: Hillary Has Momentum In Texas" not "Hillary Has Momentum In Texas." Theyre simply quoting the (as already discussed, quite flawed) pollster.
February 28, 2008 8:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
People-
I agree that IA is overdoing it by saying she has the momentum, but dont take it out on TPM/Eric. The headline says "Poll: Hillary Has Momentum In Texas" not "Hillary Has Momentum In Texas." Theyre simply quoting the (as already discussed, quite flawed) pollster.
February 28, 2008 8:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
People-
I agree that IA is overdoing it by saying she has the momentum, but dont take it out on TPM/Eric. The headline says "Poll: Hillary Has Momentum In Texas" not "Hillary Has Momentum In Texas." Theyre simply quoting the (as already discussed, quite flawed) pollster.
February 28, 2008 8:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
"To the phone-banks, ye Obama partisans!"
Yes, my thoughts exactly.
Hop to it!
February 28, 2008 8:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Like Hussein-o-Rama, this looks like it's being propogated by those who have the most to gain from a Hillary resurgence (apart from the candidate herself).
Charles Clay: former GA GOP head; "Joined" Rudy sometime last year (only to unjoin him earlier this year)
Pierre Howard: longtime GA GOP pol
Towery: His credentials are listed in this report
This poll and its finding reek of smarm.
February 28, 2008 8:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, it makes me chuckle to hear trolls ramble about how Obama's not a "fighter" when he's effortlessly parrying a combined assault from both the Clinton and Republican machines.
February 28, 2008 9:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Newt's pollster needs to refresh on Confidence intervals, difference between proportions
http://stattrek.com/AP-Statistics-4/Difference-Proportions.aspx?Tutorial=Stat
February 28, 2008 9:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Lol.
Nothing like having a spreadsheet, the Internet, and a touch of OCD to generate a few laughs out of nothing.
According to Pollster, Insider Advantage has polled six primaries so far. Below are, left to right, the state, the days between Insider's last poll and the election, the difference between Insider's last number for Hillary and her actual percentage of the vote and the difference between Insider's last number for Obama and his actual percentage.
Anyone see a pattern?
Days Hillary Obama
AL 1 -1 20
GA 3 -5 16
IA 7 -1 16
SC 11 -4 14
TN 3 -4 6
VA 5 -2 12
Feel the Hillmentum(TM)!
February 28, 2008 9:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
So yeah, while they're brushing up on confidence intervals, they might also take a quick look at their turnout model.
February 28, 2008 9:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
HEadlines do matter so do not excuse the headline - the headline leads one to believe hillary has momentum and it in NO WAY indicates that this is a quote from the pollster.
February 28, 2008 9:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve:
Thanks for the research and the reassurance!
I will sleep better tonight.
February 28, 2008 9:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Phony poll results do not amount to a momentum shift. That has been the difference in the Obama and Clinton campaigns. One has depended too much on smoking mirrors instead of allocating more energy to consistently their getting their message out. I predict that Hillary may win Ohio, but will lose in Texas.
February 28, 2008 9:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
And FWIW, MyDD's take on the matter, courtesy of Jonathan Singer:
http://mydd.com/story/2008/2/28/15639/6923
February 28, 2008 9:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
What's with the few early voting polls showing Hillary with the slight advantage?
I have been under the impression that the areas that are way up were considered safe territory for Obama, but if the early vote is going to Hillary, then maybe those areas are not so safe?
February 28, 2008 9:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
This poll might or might not be BS, but I've seen a definite change in the media since the weekend. It's not they're being any nicer in their coverage of Clinton, but that they've tried to "balance" their coverage of Obama by running all the smears she's been peddling since Super Tuesday. I feel Obama needs to come down more strongly in the next day in order to dominate the weekend coverage, either himself or via both Kennedy and John Lewis.
More tangental, but shame on John Edwards for keeping so silent about all the smears. I was really expecting some sort of statement of rejection/denouncement.
February 28, 2008 10:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
What smears, KBLOW? All I've seen has been coming from the right wingnuts (Limbaugh, Hannity, Cunningham), with their Farrakhan this, and Hussein that. Are you blaming the Clinton campaign for that goofy picture that was "Dredged" up?
February 28, 2008 10:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm kinda new at this so please bear with me -- but what button do you push to make a comment repeat itself twice (and even thrice as above), it really is cool!
February 28, 2008 10:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Idiotic, I was scrolling down and was getting worried... and then you came through. I love you man.
I'll be headed to Ohio on Saturday to campaign for Obama. Don't get complacent, the fat lady hasn't sung. However, she's wearing a valkyrie outfit and warming up her voice. Let's get it done on March 4.
Yes we can!
February 28, 2008 10:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Take her out, end all doubt!
Maybe this breif Hillary momentum, will fire up the Obama supporters over the weekend to get out and vote next Tuesday.
February 28, 2008 11:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't understand why there is such a heated debate between HIllary and Obama. Both candidates have great ideas to improve the state of this country. I listened to every debate and I just find Hillary clearer and more precise about her solutions for America. Obama is much more "rhetorical" and I don't really understand his points just by listening though. I did read his plans on the web site though.
One more thing, I wish people and the media would stop trashing Hillary. It's ok to express your opinion, but you don't need to be offensive and mean. She has also many supporters. I do support her because I simply like her plans better such as universal health care. The US is pretty much the ONLY major industrial developed country which does not offer health care for everybody; this is sad.Also, It hink HIllary has more experience in politics and I don't mean just because she was First Lady for eight years. Her background makes her the better candidate.
Go Hillary!!
February 29, 2008 12:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
Please, I encourage everyone to go to Obamatruth.org. You'll be able to see Obama for who he really is.
February 29, 2008 12:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's so helpful that you put "truth" right in the name so we know you're on the up and up, like the Swift Boat Veterans For folks. Also, why don't you tell us who you are?
February 29, 2008 12:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
And of course there's always that great journal of yesteryear, PRAVDA, which is Russian for TRUTH.
February 29, 2008 4:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
February 29, 2008 12:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
That is the best laugh I have had in days.
February 29, 2008 1:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
Best laugh I have had for days!
February 29, 2008 1:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
How's Nader doing in the polls?
February 29, 2008 1:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
Nader's polls are EXCELLENT NEWS!!!! for HILLARY!!!!!
NADER-HILLARY '08!!!!!!
pace idiotic.....
February 29, 2008 2:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hilarious. Best laugh I've had in/for days.
February 29, 2008 12:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
How credible is the Insider Advantage poll? I would put my money on the Rasmussen released also yesterday 2/28 poll which has Obama leading Hillary by 4 points in Texas.
February 29, 2008 2:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
I never talk about it because no one else does. And honestly it kind of scares me.
I am concerned about another "9/11" type of event in our country if the Dems pull off the presidency...guess I am one of those crazies not quite sold on those towers coming down by jet fuel fire.
I know that Scientific America came out debunking the whole conspiracy theory, but my extremely "science literate" friends shake their heads at what we were told happened.
Building 7 pancaking the exact same way the towers went down?!...Come on, that alone screams INVESTIGATE!
Marvin Bushes association with Securacom...(the company who had the security contracts for the trade centers and Dulles Airport prior to the attacts)...I just dont know.
Not to mention a ton of other weirdness, and unanswered questions.
AFTER the elections, it would be awesome to see netrooters seriously revisit the entire 9/11 scenario.
I emphasize AFTER, because you know what they can do IN THE MEDIA with the "CRAZY CONSPIRITORS" in any way shape or form supporting a candidate.
February 29, 2008 4:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
Building 7
http://wtc7.net/background.html
http://wtc7.net/
February 29, 2008 5:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
It amazes me to see how a respected blog like TPM gets taken over. First the race baiting Wilentz documented, then the déjà vu Repub-like talking points flyers trashing universal health care, then the CTV revelations...
but they're still bloggin for him and trashing her. Guess they think their Red State strategy à la McGovern is unbeatable
February 29, 2008 6:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
Haha, what a hypocrite. Talking about GOP talking points and race baiting, I thought you were talking about Hillary, yet no, you were actually trying to attack Obama. Hey, maybe if you click your heels together and say it over and over again it might become true in a couple thousand years. But for now, we are reporting on fact. And the CTV thing was bullshit.
Oh, and the 50 state strategy is quite a bit better than Hillary's 3 state strategy, because all the polls show she can't win half of the blue states, like Iowa, Wisconsin, Washington, Oregon, and Minnesota...so how is she supposed to win an election with that? Oh wait, she can't, but you are a Hillary supporter so you don't work with facts or logic, you just work with "If Hillary says it it must be true so I'm not going to think for myself"...talk about no better than Republicans. I expect that kind of blind idiocy from Bush followers, but from Democrats? I'm embarrassed to be in the same party as you people.
February 29, 2008 7:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
There is nothing credible about the Wilnetz article. He also wrote something in December describing all Obama supporters as "Delusional," and while some of you might think that us true, he is not exactly a rational voice. He's a friend of Bill Clinton's and should not be held up as a dispassionate voice of truth.
February 29, 2008 12:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary is the right person at the right time and if that is not recognized very soon then we will get what we pay for -- a nice, talented young man who won't be ready until 2016.
February 29, 2008 7:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
You kind of overlook the fact that she can't beat John McCain, and Obama can, so unless you want to be talking about President McCain for the next 4-8 years, you should probably rethink supporting her. Also, how is she ready again? She has LESS legislative experience than Obama, her main experience is being first lady working on small pet projects, the largest of which she totally screwed up, and then before that she was a corporate lawyer for 15 years and on the board of corporations like Wal-Mart. How is that experience that makes her so exceptionally qualified to be president? She's never had to explain that, but maybe you can enlighten us. Instead of trashing on Obama, our nominee, maybe you can tell us WHY she is the best, instead of just assuming she is best because she says she is the best. If she was so great she wouldn't have followed Bush like a little sheep into war, and then she wouldn't have supported that war for years until it was no longer politically popular. He has consistently shown better judgment than her, and you tell me HE isn't the one that is ready. He was the ultimate underdog, he wasn't supposed to have a chance at this election, she had the establishment behind her, the best fundraisers, a former president, every advantage was behind her, and he has come from the bottom and won, he has outraised her and out organized her, while her campaign ended up being a mess between the infighting and her somehow not knowing how much money they had...and SHE is the one that is ready? She ran this campaign about as well as her health care plan in the 90s. She is not ready, she isn't suited to run this country if she can't run a primary campaign. Obama has shown his abilities while he was a community organizer, and when he was a legislator in Illinois, and then in the Senate, and now during this campaign. You give absolutely NO evidence as to why Obama isn't ready and why Hillary is. I'm sick of her and her supporters saying what they want to be true in order to try to make it true, without a damn shred of evidence or logic. Experience? Hardly. Ready? Definitely not.
February 29, 2008 7:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
With all due respect, in a primary that has been running for more than a year people either know why one is a better candidate than the other -- or they don't, so at this point in time, it makes no sense to me to continue to write over and over again why I think Hillary is the best candidate. I will say this though, those who are familiar with the complete story on her Iraq vote, understand that it was a vote in support of a President (and future Presidents) to make a decision to go to war, once inspections were completed to determine next steps. It was Bush who violated the trust we should be able to put in our President, it was not that Hillary voted to support Bush in a pre-emptive strike. The real world is not as black and white as being pro-war or anti-war and leaders ready to lead, know that...
March 1, 2008 7:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
Can we change the headline to "may have momentum"? I don't want to be picky, but considering this is one poll, that is apparently in Hillary's pocket, while other more reputable polls the same day showed ZERO movement, it is probably jumping the gun to say she has movement. The only movement Hillary has had anywhere since this race began was downward movement.
February 29, 2008 7:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
new poll Obama up by 6 in texas.
February 29, 2008 8:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
Waiting... waiting for some more polls to come out to see if this Insider Advantage one is full of it.
That one and Rasmussen's Texas poll was done on the very same day and Rasmussen's had essentially the opposite results.
Maybe Insider Advantage's projection model is adding more women, Hispanics, or whites than others. Maybe they are expecting less men and African Americans. Maybe their projection model has a higher percentage of voters that have voted already, which gives the edge to Clinton. Maybe all the above. Maybe they're just full of it.
Zogby now shows Obama up by 6. I think I'll take the latter of last paragraph as the explanation for Ins Adv.
February 29, 2008 8:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
If Obama is on the ballot, I hope McCain will get it!
February 29, 2008 10:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
Really? You want more war? You want more Bush tax cuts? You want the supreme court stacked with more people who will cut civil liberties and empower an imperial presidency? You want soliders and foreign innocents to die in McCain's warmongering because you don't like Obama?
February 29, 2008 12:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
One thing is for sure: Obama supporters are short sighted. So many Clinton supporters will vote for McCain after all of the negative, mean spirited comments of Obama supporters. Obama has certainly inspired a lot of people to spred hate on the blogs. And recent polls on CNN show Obama behind McCain in a national election, so you Obama supporters will need every vote.
February 29, 2008 3:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
unity and change. that what the man's promising. imo, he's the most divisive candidate out there. if you look at this from a policy point of view, do you really believe republicans, even moderate ones are gonna come around to the pro-choice, pro-same sex union, anti-war stance? i'm a very liberal democrat who laughs at the idea of red states and blue states turning magically into something purple. unity SOUNDS great. it ain't gonna happen. and the way obamatons are treating the hillary supporters, you get your bottom dollar that a significant majority of hillary voters will drift to mccain. you know why? if you look at his policies, he's not a bad guy. he's been a POW for 5 years. he's got experience, which regardless of what people say, matters. would you hire a babysitter for your precious children with no references, a history of drug abuse, and no experience in child development? if you would, then don't blame your husband who was weary of te babysitter in the first place, when the kid burns his hands on the stove. and change? both hillary and obama are promising the same exact things. most of these issues and ideas obama stole from clinton platform. HILLARY is the BEST candidate for the job. she's worked hard her entire life, she's faced significant challenges, was at ground zero comforting families, firefighters and cops after 9/11. she's an intelligent person with massive foreign policy experience. she won't be spending the first two years of her presidency meeting world leaders;she already knows them. she can defeat mccain. she is battletested. you don't think the republicans are saving up all the dirt they've uncovered on obama for the general election? they've got a lot to work with already: tony rezko, his ties to iraqi government officials, his flip-flopping views on NAFTA, and the list continues to grow. VOTE HILLARY FOR PRESIDENT 2008
February 29, 2008 6:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
GO HILLARY!
March 1, 2008 12:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama is a fraud. He is a plant by the Republican Party. His money is coming from the BIG BOYS. He has no plans, no thoughts of his own. He has to follow Hillary in debates so he knows what to say. He doesn't know he is supposed to put his hand over his heart for the national anthem unless he sees someone else doing it. He is going to bring down the Democratic Party if he gets the nomination.
The core of the Dem Party are voting for Hillary. Without those voters, they can not win in November. The republicans are hijacking the Democratic Party and the Boys can't even see it, or else they are part of it. Do you really think all of those Republicans are going to vote Democratic in November? You are delusional..
Go Hillary!
March 1, 2008 10:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's time we let the true
Democrats from each state select the candidate of their choice! I see the numbers and it appears to me that Obama has only won 3 traditionally Democratic states by large margins: Illinois (home state), Wisconsin (1 hour from his home), and Hawaii (birthplace). He did win Connecticut barely, Delaware (racial divide) and Washington Caucus but tied in the Washington primary. It does not take a rocket scientist to see that the large Republican populations in his other victories have crossed over! (Except in Iowa and Missouri where it was Illinoisians that propelled him to slight wins). If you want to debate me on that, consider that I live in iowa on the eastern border and surprisingly, most folks in my caucus were visitors staying with relatives. Yeah! Remember the Karl Rove meeting with Obama in October. A-ha! Elections 101: Win by Cheating by Prof. Rove
Let's look at Democratic Strongholds: NY, NJ, CA, NM, MI, TN, WV, RI, PA Hillary, Hillary Hillary.
So, who is choosing the Democratic nominee? C'mon Texas and Ohio Democrats Republicans are afraid of Hillary and rightfully so. She has turned NY Republicans into Democrats. Former upstate Republicans from NY campaigned for Hillary in Iowa!
I was torn between Obama and Hillary at first until I actually did my research and was not mesmorized by the talk. (Remember . . Hitler was a great speaker). I invite you to do the research. Let me help settle some myths:
Myth 1: Obama does not take PAC $$. Why does he have money channeled through the Presidential election fund daily that can be traced to Exxon/Mobil and their peers? Look it up!
Myth 2: Obama is anti war: Check out his speeches and votes. He said he supported the Senate vote to go to war in his 2004 campaign for Senate. He also has an absolute record of sending money to Bush for continuatiion of the war.
Myth 3: Obama supports equal rights: When the sexual orientation equality in employment vote came before the Illinois congress, Obama voted "present" to avoid his riffs with Syrian supporter Rezko!
Myth 4: Obama is for the people. How many times have you already heard him say that he would operate by his convictions as President. Hhmmm. Isn't the job of president to do the will of the people. Hasn't Bush operated by his own convictions?
So you see, this Obama snake oil being marketed reminds me of some empty bottles I already have fallen for. But not this time! He is a liar, a bigot, a coward, and a slumlord! Not the change I seek!
If he is the nominee in November, This Democrat votes for McCain! You Obama folks will either thank me or understand why someday! But I stand for TRUE Democratic change:
Go Hillary! Let me vote Democratic in november!
March 1, 2008 1:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary for President!!
Go to:
HillaryClinton.com
Contribute, even as little as $5.00 is a welcome help!
Have a great day!
:)
Texas, RI, Vermont, Ohio....PA, don't forget to CAUCUS and VOTE.
March 1, 2008 2:48 PM | Reply | Permalink