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Obama's Delegate Lead Growing

So where do Barack Obama's victories last night leave him and Hillary Clinton in the delegate count? Even including Hillary's lead on super-delegates, Obama now has a substantial lead of more than 50 in even the most conservative estimates, and the lead gets a whole lot bigger when super-delegates are taken out of the equation.

Here are the current counts of delegates from various news organizations, including super-delegates unless otherwise noted:

CNN: Obama 1,301, Clinton 1,239.

CNN: Obama 1,140, Clinton 1,005 (Not counting super-delegates).

NBC: Obama 1,168, Clinton 1,1018 (Not counting super-delegates).

ABC: Obama 1,355, Clinton 1,261.

CBS: Obama 1,349, Clinton 1,252.

Associated Press: Obama 1,303, Clinton 1,233.

Washington Post: Obama 1,423, Clinton 1,297.


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For what it's worth, I've got a blog post up this morning that attempts to take stock of the race, using a variety of measures and projections. The key number, I think, is Obama's pledged delegate lead, which stands either at 156 or 158, depending on how Wisconsin ultimately divides.

Someone needs to buy Hillary a copy of that book, "He's Just Not That Into You."

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Does anyone know what accounts for why WaPo has so many more in the count (on both sides, but particularly for Obama)?

They got into Marion Barry's crack hoard?

Seriously, I haven't a clue. As best I can tell, they're giving Obama a few dozen more pledged delegates than his campaign ventures to claim.

CNN and NBC and NYT seem to be waiting on the caucus states like Colorado to actually assign all of their delegates (which doesn't happen until their conventions) but are giving the candidates some of those pledged delegates now. I think some are automatic and some are assigned at the convention. The other networks/papers seem to be estimating the number of pledged delegates he'll eventually get in those states.

Can someone give me a quick idea of how the pledged delegates are awarded on the democratic side? I've been following all of this and it's obvious they they are not 'winner take all.' Are they given based on the percentage of voters who voted for a particular candidate - ie: Obama took 58% of the vote in WI, ergo he gets 58% of WI's delegates?

ctaylor: It's generally proportional within a congressional district within a state. If the district only has two delegates, both candidates are likely to get one. Only the districts with an odd number or where there is a landslide are likely to give a different number of delegates to the two candidates. That's why Obama's back to back to back landslides have propelled him to the front, even after losing California and New York. Texas is much weirder though, with weighted senate districts. (I think Clinton said there were grown men crying in her campaign over the confusing Texas rules) We're hoping to give Obama another landslide here March 4.

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Actually, many states have a system where each delegate corresponds to a particular region. If you win that region, you get that delegate. So, there's at least one case (possibly more) where Obama came slightly behind Hillary in popular votes, but took more delegates. Rightly or wrongly, I think everyone agrees she "won" that/those state(s).

Am I correct in my calculation that, if Obama maintained his current lead in delegates, he could agree to seat Florida and Michigan and STILL have a lead in pledged delegates (even not giving him any of the Michigan uncommitted votes)? Not that I think he should agree to that until all the races are over and enough supers have agreed to go with the popular vote, but that would make it so there was no one who could claim that it there would have been a different outcome with Florida and Michigan.

I have reached a conclusion over the question of whether to include super-delegates in these counts: the numbers of pledged delegates, sans the supers, are what ought to be reported. If, after that initial count, a network wishes to include those supers that have stated their support for a candidate it would also be somewhat informative to include those numbers but they ought to be reported separately and secondarily to the pledged counts.

Why? For starters the name given to pledged delegates is perfectly descriptive - the number of them that will vote for the candidate other than the one they are pledged to, if any, will be insignificant. The idea that a candidate will convince some of the other's to change their vote is downright silly. The delegates are chosen for the role on the basis of extreme loyalty to the candidate. When supers, on the other hand, are included in a candidate's delegate count it is based on having expressed or having made a declaration of support for them at one point in the past. As Mr. Lewis demonstrated they can change their minds right up to the moment they cast their vote; several have already. This being the case, why include them in the count? They're not a sure thing.

That's the most straightforward and simple reasoning behind my conclusion on this issue but there is another and it has greater significance for what decisions the supers will make. Not only does it speak to the question at hand, it gets to the heart of the matter of whether, if one candidate has a strong lead in pledged delegates coming into the nomination, the supers will be as big of a distortion in the nominating process as people are saying. The arguments and ideas that Josh laid out in his post, "Won't Go There" on Feb. 15th, were very similar to what I had been thinking, albeit more thoroughly considered and refined (I highly recommend reading that if you hadn't, the best writing on the super-delegate issue I've seen). Even if all the current supers stay with the candidate that they've come out in support of in the past, which as I wrote above is unlikely to be the case, about half of them haven't made an endorsement. The candidate with the most delegates has the most support; that's what they'll want in a candidate. Furthermore, if one candidate has leads in the popular vote, pledged delegates, number of contests won, money raised, support among swing and first-time voters, support in purple states, lower negatives among the general population, momentum from recent contest wins, and polls better against the opposition, does anyone actually think it's even slightly probable that the supers are going to pick the other one? That's absurd.

*NOTE* I was a Richardson supporter who after some thought has gone to Obama for political reasons.

NBC: Obama 1,168, Clinton 1,1018 (Not counting super-delegates).

According to NBC, Hillary has a number of delegates that doesn't really exist.

I notice that the Obama campaign delegate projection spreadsheet "leaked" recently projected that at this point Obama would have 1,160 pledged delegates.

Nice projecting.

Yeah but that leaked document seriously underestimated his wins in February. Obviously you don't plan a campaign based on the most optimistic projections (no snark to Hillary). Obama's numbers included estimates of the total caucus allocations, so if they were spot on their estimate would be closer to the ABC,CBS,AP,Wapo numbers.

Thank you very much for posting lists of delegate counts like these. Small suggestion.... With so many competing numbers, it takes a little while to do all the mental math necessary to see what kind of lead each news org is reporting. It might be helpful if you guys included a spread, in either delegates or - even more helpfully - as a percentage, for each set of numbers. That way a reader could glance down the numbers and quickly see where the delegate race stands without having to do math. Thanks for all the great work you guys do! Love the site!

As an Islander I was extremely happy to learn Hawaii went 75-25 for Obama. That means roughly (the allotting of the delegates is going to take a while), he should get about 15 of the 20 delegates, or a plurality in Hawaii of +10.

In the meantime, getting 58% of the 74 delegatesin WI (estimating), that gives him about 43 of the 74 delegates, leaving about 31 for Clinton. So that means a plurality of +12 for Wisconsin.

Now here is the eye-opener: he gets a plurality of 12 in a pretty big state and a plurallity of 10 in a very small state.

Delegate-wise, if he can win big in small states he has enormous leverage going into the convention as far as the delegate count. And the smart consultants in the Hillary camp (I'm pointing at you Penn) missed the significance of this, and went mainly for the big states.

I believe they should post the committed delegate and overall delegate counts separately. I mean how much extra work is that, and it is a lot more informative.

But that would make me look like I am losing...

Take a moment and glance at the poll numbers for MI in the general election in the top right corner of this page and tell me who that state supports more, HRC or Obama?

Bush's approval rating in the latest ARG poll: 19%. Seriously? Why isn't that front-page news?? Or is ARG one of the grain-of-salt pollsters? I hope it's true. Heh heh.

Sounds like the Clinton campaign are certainly not giving up on getting Obama's pledged delegates. Daily kos has the scoop.

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