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Obama Wins Wisconsin, Networks Project

CNN, NBC and Fox call it for Obama.

The numbers: With two percent reporting, Obama is ahead, 54%-45%.

More in a bit.

Late Update: In her concession speech tonight, Hillary aggressively attacks Obama's eloquence.

Late Update: The exit polls show that in his victory tonight, Obama cut deeply into Hillary's core constituencies.

Late Update: The latest numbers: With 45% reporting, Obama is ahead, 55%-44%.

Late Update: McCain, who apparently thinks he's going to be facing Obama in the general election, goes after him in his victory speech tonight. And Obama spokesperson Bill Burton responds to McCain's attack with this:

“John McCain’s remarks tonight shows why he’s offering nothing more than a third term of George Bush’s policies – more fear-mongering, more than a century of war in Iraq, and more budget-busting tax cuts for the wealthiest few at the expense of hardworking Americans. The reason that Barack Obama is attracting Democrats, Independents, and Republicans to his cause is because he’s offering real change that will end this war, finish the fight against al Qaeda, restore our standing in the world, and rebuild our economy for the struggling middle-class.”

Late Update: Obama's lead appears to be growing. With 79% reporting, he leads 58%-41%.

Late Update: Video of Obama's victory speech tonight is here.


137 Comments

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GO BADGERS!!!

Hurray!

Looks like he is taking all demographics, too.

YES WE CAN!!!

YES WE CAN!!!!

At this point, it looks like another +10 delegates or so for Obama.

The next four years are starting to look pretty good.

McCain took aim directly at Obama in his speech. I'm assuming Obama will return the favor.

With 91% reporting, the returns now stand 58-41 Obama, another landslide victory. A week ago, the polls showed him leading by 4.

I'm projecting about +13 in the delegate count based on this number.

And Camp Hillary explains why Wisconsin also doesn't count in 3, 2, 1, ...

It's official. Wisconsin Does Not Matter. Hill is giving her denial, um, speech now.

This just in! While Wisconsin does not matter, she now says that words, in fact, do matter.

Clinton is coming out to "9 to 5" by Dolly Parton!!!111!!1!11!!!


As I think Einstein once said, "Das ist some lame-ass shit."

blasphemy!

dolly is never, ever lame


obama 08

Joleen.

They must really be confident to call it so quickly. Great news! I'd say this finishes Clinton. Yes, I know, don't assume anything, but... barring catastrophe, I really think this is it. Go, Obama!

A splash of holy water and a stake through the lifeless heart does not a victory make. Not until you see it screaming in the full light of day, crumbling into blessed ash, will you know you have banished your enemey.

Never underestimate the clintons.

I guess cheeseheads like snake oil.

Obama '08

Hillary is giving her speech and she sounds tired...

hillary just said that the campaign isnt about her or her opponent, "it's about you." i'm pretty sure i've heard that line before.

Cheese curds and Milwaukee's Best on me, Badger voters.

I'd sure like Hillary to be gracious in defeat and congratulate her opponent. I guess that's too much to ask.

The polls in Virginia were instructive. He is continuing to eat into her base. The next two weeks will be a slog. Time to turn off my computer and TV so I don't lose my mind.

I have to say this- Fuck the acussations, Fuck the negative ads, Fuck the last minute mailers- and Fuck the mind games Obama Wins!!! I want to say that all week.


YES WE CAN!!!!

Listening to Hillary plug her website yet again. Makes me think the $15MM they were bragging about was just fluff: she needs money.

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Boom! Texas, Ohio, ready or not, here we come. Let's finish this thing so we can stop shouting at each other and move on to the real race in November.

Oooooh, the "dangerous world" argument.

I think Obama could call her out for plagiarizing Bush's "vote for me or die" motto.

Boy howdy this is the snottiest just-lost speech I've heard since the 4th grade.

Obama is coming on screen now....

She sounds beaten and she's talking broke. Glad she could make her usual gracious concession, however.

Hillary's speech is full of fear-mongering about a dangerous world needing an experienced person. And she keeps saying "Ready to be Commander in Chief on Day One" over and over and over. She is sticking to her traditional talking points. Not sure that is wise.

Exactly. It's all white noise now.

Obama is cock blocking her right now. Ouch.

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Cue Mark Penn on "why Wisconsin doesn't matter" in three ... two ... one ...

Is it just me, or is this speech jumping all OVER the place? "Cowboy diplomacy...healthcare...moms...anything is possible...foreclosure bad...ready on day one!"

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Obama is tough enough to bump Hillary off the tube.

Watching the primary coverage on MSNBC, and Obama's taking the stage while Hillary's talking. Olbermann said they're going to switch to Obama as soon as he's ready to talk, and... g'bye, Hillary. :D

Hey, if she doesn't want to talk primaries, she can take a back seat.

I have to say while IOWA and SC were GREAT, THIS IS THE SWEETEST VICTORY THUS FAR!!!!!

THIS VICTORY SCREAMS- FUCK YOU

It has to be devastating to get up and give a speech while your future is steadily swirling the bowl (and God knows I don't think I could do it), but Hillary, who usually does a good job of looking unfazed, is looking and sounding pretty beat tonight. She sounds like she's lost and knows it.

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GObama!

Seriously, between this and the Tx polls and delegate allocation methodology, it's hard to see what the Clintons can do. I hope they are dignified and quit while they can (pretend to be) on high ground.


Surrender, Dorothy!

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Hillary's begging for money on the stump. I guess that's not so bad but she does seem desperate.

Sigh. I'm sick of this primary, Hillary could have been gracious, could have faught a fair and honest campaign but she really disgraced herself and our party with all of her cynical bullshit. Good fucking riddance, she was blight on our party.

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Whoo hoo!

I think the Clinton team will cfault the overall absence of African-American voters in Wisconsin on their loss. They are, after all, a traditional Clinton stronghold.

C'mon. they have to say something

So far the Rudy strategy looks like its on target to be 0-2....

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And a serious "power move", starting his speech while Hillary was still talking. Effectively cutting her off (at least on MSNBC, and I'm sure all the other cable networks). Very smooth.

A little more momentum, and this campaign could achieve orbit.

-- ARG

If she won't acknowledge the news of the evening, they should cut her off.

It isn't free commercial time.

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I hope they are dignified and quit while they can (pretend to be) on high ground.

Yeah, me too. Really.

But I doubt it.

Early voting started today in Texas?

That's gotta be a good thing for Obama. Two weeks is an eternity!

People - we Obama supporters are gleeful tonight, but we don't have to scream "F**k You" at the Hillary supporters. Show a little class.

We're winning, remember?

Thank you. The least we can do is have good sportsmanship.

True enough. The Clinton campaign seemingly has a corner on the market of classlessness. And they're welcome to it.

We need to remember the touchdown-scoring football players who were told by their coach: "Act like you've been there before!"

I *want* it to be clearly understood that it doesn't work for a democratic delegate to run a negative campaign against another. I will be *gleeful* when America repudiates those tactics. It has nothing to do with HRC as a person, it has to do with her choice of politcal mentors.

I agree.

Although I think the "fuck you" comments haven't been directed at Hillary supporters specifically as much as people are saying the Wisconsin results symbolize a collective "fuck you" to the Clinton campaign's less-than-admirable tactics.

Either way, not necessary. We won, we're on the brink and let's be as classy in victory as Hillary is classless in defeat, to borrow a phrase.

WOW, MSNBC, CNN and FOX has bumped Hillary and went straight to BO!!!!
Obama's new slogan, "One more win." thats all he needs to put a fork in HRC, then he can start preparing for the GE.

Would that be Hawaii, my home state? Aloha and Mahalo Brudda Obama!

10 loses and she's never congratulated her opponent on the win. Class act, that broad is. This speech she's giving and behavior exemplifies her character to me, and makes me worry that she will not concede, even if Obama wins the convention. She's a very vicious person. Cruel even.

Obama now. Hillary never. Michelle later.

Seriously, calm down people. I'm an Obama supporter too, but this thread is gross.

It's getting there.

But it's hard not to experience some schadenfreude here, especially after the Clintons have been signalling for days how they intend to steal this nomination

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Make a donation folks:

https://donate.barackobama.com/promise

♪♪♪

Already donated :) Planning on donating again this weekend...

I feel so good I am going to be a bad guest and re-post a comment I made earlier in another thread. I apologize ahead of time.

********************************************

Like everyone else here I don't know if Obama will win tonight, but if Hillary loses, I think it is because in the past week, maybe two, her line of attack has been too much negative against Obama, and not enough positive about herself.

At the end of the day voters are going to say, "Alright, you told me 346 reasons why I should not vote for your opponent, now tell me why I should vote for you."

Hillary has been brilliant at explicating her various "solutions" to what is wrong with America, but she has not told the American people where she wants to take them. She just wants to "solve" this or that problem.

This kind of piecemeal approach is not good enough because America is broken and to put it together again we cannot have piecemeal solutions. Obama is right, we need a transformative leader.

Is Obama that transformative leader? I sure as hell do not know. But if Hillary cannot convince me that she is capable of even evoking that vision, much less implement it I am not going to vote for her. (I actually I already voted for Obama in the NY primary.)

That leaves Obama. Let me the first to say that Obama is a flawed candidate. But then so is Hillary, and I am not going to catalog her flaws, and not even Obama's. That is not the point of this post. Suffice to say they are both flawed, and there is no such thing as a perfect candidate.

But for the first time in a long time, we have a candidate who is willing to step forward and present himself a harbinger of a possible future for America. All this stuff about cult of personality? Hell, yes, there is an element of that. There is with every great leader. But some people call it charisma -- that undefinable thing that says that this person is a politician but that one is a leader.

I see Obama as a leader. And yes, if he becomes president he is going to make mistakes, maybe some big ones. But when we look at what we have today, I am willing to take that risk.

Bill Clinton is right. Obama is a roll of the dice. But he is the best we have right now. So, roll them bones.


Posted by suntzu
February 19, 2008 8:13 PM | Reply | Per

Candiedyam, you are a voice of reason.

Many rivers to cross.

Exactly. It's all white noise now.

Hey! Don't play the race card! ;-)

this is EXCELLENT NEWS FOR HILLARY!!!

Obama just slammed HRC good! Talk of not running because someone was looking at his Kindergarten papers and not running because it was owed to him.

Nice.

This is pretty much his basic stump speech.


Do we have no Hawaii polling? It's a caucus and Obama was born there, so he's got a lot going in his favor. I've just never seen any numbers.

Hawaii's caucus doesn't even start until 1:30 AM EST. Remember, they're 13 hours behind the East Coast. We won't know how that turned out until tomorrow, early morning.

Oh, I know that. I'm talking about polling numbers, not results.

Doh! You're right - I haven't been able to find any polls coming out of Hawaii.

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Remember, they're in a *way* different time zone!

haha, I know where Hawaii is!

That doesn't explain why there isn't any tracking poll data.

With 16% reporting:

Obama 56%

Clinton 43%

I agree that we Obama supporters should win with class.

But folks like Mark Penn make that very, very hard.

Anywhoo, a shout out to the folks in Wisconsin!

Thanks for doing your part.

Hear hear!

Anyone notice that Hillary and Obama themselves ALONE got more votes than all of the Republican contenders COMBINED?

THIS is why this kind of battle is good for the country... it's incredible to see so much of the nation talking about this, and getting out to vote. I just hope this civic involvement translates into the general election.

I suspect, if Hillary gets the nomination, that it won't...

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I've noted this on several nights. I did a little bit of research after the Super Tuesday contests. (Today, one could argue that the Repbulican nomination is no longer contested. But back on Super Tuesday it most certainly was still in question.)

I don't know whether, historically, there is a good correlation between primary turnout and results in the Fall (seems 2000 would be a good example to check, since both sides had a contest, at least for a short time). But if there is a correlation, then it looks like a landslide for the Democratic nominee in the Fall.

In Missouri, which tends to be "too close to call", the turnout favored the Democrats, roughly 820,000 to 585,000, or 58.4% to 41.6%. Not even close. I read an article that said turnout was at record levels on both sides there. But on the Democratic side it was 58% higher than the previous record, while on the Republican side it was "only" 23% above the previous record.

A similar thing happened in Arizona, in terms of record turnouts and the larger increase on the Democratic side. That wasn't enough to boost the Democrats past the Republicans (in one of the reddest states around), but it did make it respectable: 54.4% to 45.6% in favor of the Republicans.

Blue states were shellackings by the Dems: New York 74.1% to 25.9%, New Jersey 66.5% to 33.5%, and California 64.2% to 35.8% (that was with only 95% of the vote in, and surely much of the late vote is from rural areas more likely to be Republican -- but still, an impressive margin).

Red states were more interesting. I mentioned Arizona. The other Republican "win" would be Alabama, but it's a razor thin margin, 50.8% to 49.2% for the Republicans. Several others went to the Democrats, however: Georgia 52.2% to 47.8%, Tennessee 52.8% to 47.2%, and Oklahoma 54.9% to 45.1%. So much for the solid south.

So my analysis -- and you heard it here first -- is that the Democrats will have an electoral landslide in the Fall. I do believe that it will be a much stronger win with Obama, however.

-- ARG

Not to be entirely dismissive of higher Democratic participation, since this was a huge factor in previous primaries -- if you were a Republican would you be wasting your time to drive out to the polls when there isn't much of a choice to be made? That "race" is as good as run, since it's not at all clear what Huckabee is still doing in it.

I am really happy about Barack Obama winning tonight. Looks like a big lead!

I know of a fairly large contingent of Republicans who voted for Hillary today.

I'm sorry for using the F word. But just the Clinton camp played games for a week- I had to get it out.

I'm sorry- and my F word was not directed to the candidate but the negative tactics all week. Anyway, on a night like this- Sorry is a word I can say.

I'm sorry for using the F word. But just the Clinton camp played games for a week- I had to get it out.

I'm sorry- and my F word was not directed to the candidate but the negative tactics all week. Anyway, on a night like this- Sorry is a word I can say.

I'm sorry for using the F word. But just the Clinton camp played games for a week- I had to get it out.

I'm sorry- and my F word was not directed to the candidate but the negative tactics all week. Anyway, on a night like this- Sorry is a word I can say.

Hey - I've made a few comments I'd like to take back myself. I totally get the frustration - I worked for Tsongas in IA in '92, so I got to know both Clintons up close and personal, and I have first-hand reasons to dislike them both. Nonetheless, I'm actually starting to feel kind of bad for her. Her campaign really is turning her into the Dems' answer to Guiliani. I'd say it's something to do with NY, but she's not really from NY, is she? LOL....

Sweet victory tonight.

Particularly due to the fact that it is a repudiation of divisive political play. In addition it will severely dampen the media obsession with Obama's supposed plagiarism. Instead the media narrative will be writing Hillary's eulogy until March 4.

Sorry HRC supporters, we would have supported her had she won. But, now it is time to see the light and hop on the Obama train as we roll all over McCain!

CNN: Obama 56% Clinton 43% 25% reporting.

I am not going to lie to you folks. My private projection before returns came in was 57-43 Obama. (Call it hope!) Let's see if it holds up.

Hawaii is going to be a blowout because their polls won't close till 5 hours after Wisconsin, and news travels at light speed as we all know. I also hope that a big win in HI will be a repudiation to Sen. Inouye who should have retired at least three terms ago.

Wisconsins just plagiarized the previous eight states.

ha! nice.

Quote of the evening!

By the way- PPP poll was bang on!!!!

I wonder if she'll beat Huckabee

"just plagiarized the previous eight states"

Nice.

Obama-Sebelius 2008: A dream ticket! For the first time in history, no white male running for the top two offices!

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"And a serious "power move", starting his speech while Hillary was still talking. Effectively cutting her off (at least on MSNBC, and I'm sure all the other cable networks). Very smooth."

I don't know if this was actually a "power move" it seems as though it just worked out that way.

But this seems like the kind of "petty" "4th grade" stuff that people attribute to Hillary.
Oh and "she does it too, so there" isn't impressive.

He WON. Good for him!

So when/where is the next debate?

Next week. Ohio.

Shanks, hyperRevue.

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Nice speech, with no notes and no teleprompter.

Very nice.

You know, Obama was my third choice, behind Kucinich and Edwards. Yes, I'm that far left, and I'm a details guy. But I have to say, Obama has grown on me pretty fast. He's smart, and he can inspire people, and that's not nothin'. I'm a pretty left-brained person, but Obama gets me believing in a better future, and he's gotten a lot of people off their collective backsides and involved in the process, and that's pretty significant.

You know, I'm feeling a little hope tonight. And I haven't felt that way for a long time.

So Ms. Clinton, perhaps in a couple of weeks, you could do the right thing and get behind this movement. If you stay out in front, you're going to get run over.

-- ARG

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From the NYTimes on line, at 10:23 --
"Obama Extends Streak With Ninth Victory Over Clinton
By MICHAEL M. GRYNBAUM and MICHAEL COOPER 19 minutes ago
Barack Obama won by a comfortable margin in Wisconsin, putting new pressure on his opponent, while John McCain closed in on the G.O.P. nomination."

I can't tell you how proud I am of all you Wisconsin's who today told Hillary Clinton (and her minions) in no uncertain terms, to take their hateful smear tactic and go f*&k themselves.

Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you.

10% or more.

Networks turning away from Hillary to Obama- I hope will prove to be a symbolic moments in this race. As of now, I'm just glad Hillary did'nt get any free TV time.

I am so proud of my fellow Wisconsinites!

Excerpt from Hillary's speech tonight (NY Times)

“We can’t just have speeches, we’ve got to have solutions, and we need those solutions for America,” she said. “Because while words matter, the best words in the world aren’t enough, unless you match them with action.” Mrs. Clinton added, “I will restore our leadership and moral authority in the world without delays, without on the job training, from day one.”

When you read those words, there is nothing there you can really criticize because the ideas are grounded in reality. But there is no call to people to aspire to their higher self, or for the country as a whole to lift itself to a higher plane of collective aspiraton. It is all about what Hillary is going to do. This kind of mindset is what is sinking Hillary.

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The rhetoric in this speech is just so tired, so strained, so desperate. It makes me think, this is all they could come up with? These are the campaign slogans of a candidate who can barely strum up the conviction to believe her own speeches.

Does anyone know when the last time was that two sitting US Senators competed for the Presidency? Could it be as far back as the 19th Century?

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From the NYTimes on line, at 10:34 --
"Obama Extends Streak With Ninth Victory Over Clinton
By MICHAEL M. GRYNBAUM and MICHAEL COOPER 10 minutes ago

Mr. Obama’s victory was helped in part by support from groups that have traditionally tilted toward Mrs. Clinton, including female and middle-aged voters. Mr. Obama received more than half of the votes cast by white residents and he split the female vote with Mrs. Clinton, according to exit polls conducted by Edison/Mitofsky for the National Election Pool.

. . .

Almost two-thirds said Mr. Obama would be more likely to unite the country and about 55 percent considered him more likely to improve foreign relations. Democratic voters were evenly divided on whether Mrs. Clinton or Mr. Obama was most qualified to be commander-in-chief, according to exit polls conducted by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International.

Clem here on the big island of Hawaii -- I'm about to leave to go caucus (it starts at 6:30PM) in the tiny town of Ocean View out in the boonies -- the preregistration #'s for the caucus were overwhelming, I hope I can find a parking space! It's chilly here (we're on the slope of Mauna Loa) around 70 degrees, I don't think it'll affect the turnout. :^>

GO OBAMA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Hey Bra! Howzit? Honolulu boy here, living in NY. Don't ask why. You think its chilly at 70 degrees? LOL! Try Wisconsin. High of 9 today.

The AP is characterizing Hillary as "fading"?

Ouch.

From the opposite side of the divide, guess what? McCain is using the same attack tactics that got Clinton nowhere --- he is attacking Obama for being the candidate of dreamy talk. He is also talking about Obama wanting to bomb Pakistan, a total falsehood. This from the candidate of Bomb Bomb Bomb Iran.

Well, if tonight is a sign of things to come, the
Republicans who have been planning on facing Clinton for the last four years have to retool their hate machinery. I am sure they'll do just fine, with all the experience they have.

I can just imagine a McCain - Obama debate. It's going to be Kennedy - Nixon all over again.

Obama's up 15, and if there are still plenty of Dane county votes out there, he's going to pad that number.

Hooray for an Obama victory. I had a hunch this afternoon and my hunch was right. On to OH and TX and VT and RI...

Talking about Stump speech- a couple of things:

1. I had a feeling he was making an effort to be less attractive (or less glossy) in his speech tonight.

2. Almost networks focus on him-full length- for these victory speeches. It's time for him to make a Change in his stump.

I wonder if Clinton camp will continue beat up plagiarism?

If they do, it'll be the only proof anyone needs that the plagiarism thing is all they've got.

And the momentum rolls on like an unstoppable force of history...

I live in Austin Texas and voted today. My gut feeling, at seeing the line of people, was that the trend would hold in Texas as it has in all of the early states and that voter turnout will be unprecedented.

Obama is going to win Texas, the trendlines are already folding into place, and he's going to repeat what he just did in Wisconsin, and win big.

At that point, Hillary will be completely done. No other excuses will suffice, and all support for her will wither.

The Obama camp, I think, is sensing this already, and are laying out a line of speeches that shows a two way race for the presidency, between Barack and McCain. I expect to hear a new speech when Barack wins Texas, not his usual stump speech. It will be the decisive turn to a national campaign against McCain.

May the best man win.

err, that would be Obama :)

I think the early voting in Texas is going to greatly favor Obama.


hyperRevue:
>>I know of a fairly large contingent of Republicans who voted for Hillary today

Why? Just curious. I'm *guessing* that it was because they would rather their candidate face her in the general election.

Re the "power move" - Someone on a NYT board said that she was scheduled for 8:30 and he for 9:30 but she delayed starting ... meanwhile he had 20,000 people waiting. Who knows? However, does 'political etiquette' require waiting for a concession speech to finish when it ISN'T in the least a concession speech!!??

(You know, I do feel badly for her hard-working volunteers in these states that she chooses to forget before the polls even close. A 'thank you' to the folks freezing their toes off in Wisconsin, as well as to the Ohio marching band, would be nice.)

Anyone watching the Washington numbers? 45% is in and Obama's up 50% to 46%.

Was this expected?

It's a beauty contest, so, I don't know that anything other than low turnout was expected.

Thanks. I knew it was a beauty contest, I just didn't know if even the most idle speculation had Sen. Clinton or Sen. Obama prevailing.


Obviously a win for Obama wouldn't mean much; but after this evening I could imagine a Clinton win provoking a hastily-arranged repeat of the Florida 'victory' rally.

I hope she wins the primary here so we can matter again!

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I know this is going to sound incredibly sexist, but I think it bears consideration. As a young boy growing up in the '50s, I had sports and sportsmanship practically beaten into me. Being a "poor sport" was worse than being a Communist. Girls of my generation didn't generally play sports, as it was considered sort of "unladylike". Hillary grew up in an even earlier time than I did. My wife just pointed out what I've been thinking to myself: perhaps Hillary is a poor sport because no one ever taught her to be a good one.

One thing's for sure: Hillary sucks at losing.

Hillary again refuses to concede or publicly thank her Wisconsin constituents who braved freezing temperatures to vote for her ungrateful and ungracious A$$...

David Frum on Larry King Live suggesting that Obama is ungrateful to all vets and John McCain's military service - did I miss something - Obama is always sticking up for the poor treatment of returning vets, and stating his respect for McCain's war hero status... David Frum is a pompous mouthpiece that creates more bad blood in desperation because he knows his party is on a sinking ship.

To me it seemed he was just suggesting that as a strategy for McCain in going up against Obama.

Tom, I wasn't being snarky -- I honestly don't know if anyone had any expectations.

TO ALL THOSE CLINTONITES I SAY SHA NA NA HEY HEY GOODBYE!!!SO LONG HILLARY AND GOOD RIDANCE TOO!!!

THE HAWAII RESULTS SHOW NOW OBAMA 77% TO 23% FOR THE IRON B_____ AND AS I SAID IN MY PREVIOUS POST.
SHA NA NA SAY HEY HEY GOODBYE AND GOOD RIDANCE TOO!!!

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Dragon, as I've said elsewhere, I sympathize, but please dial it down. As others have requested, show some class. Please.

Hillary is so last century

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K, folks. (clears throat)

I mentioned in another thread that I'm religious. So I'm going to pray a little, in a little bit. I posted a variant of this comment here. I am going to cross-post to a few threads, and beg forgiveness in advance, because I have the arrogance to believe that some of this should be said more than once.

So I've posted a lot of criticism of the HRC campaign, and of HRC's personal record, her choices for campaign staff (particularly Penn, who is a corporate, unionbusting toad), etc. But I respect her years of service. I will respect her even more if she decides to stand aside, as difficult as it would be for her and for the millions who support her, in the name of a unified party to take the White House in November. I can forgive the schadenfreude of the BHO supporters in this thread, and feel a bit of it myself. But I think it's time to dial it down and look both ahead and behind. (I also wish to point out that I was not originally an Obama supporter: I favored Kucinich for his positions and passion; Edwards for his positions and apparent electability, according to national polls; Richardson for his resume and temperament; Dodd for his stands for the Constitution.)

I'm coming up on 45 years old. For most of my adult and even teenage life, I've been railing against the direction this country has gone in, and grown increasingly horrified, year after year. Unfortunately, that includes the Clinton 42 years (NAFTA, telecom deregulation, WTO, Clipper Chip, Carnivore, Option 9, and more). I was just barely too young to vote for Carter in 1980. My first national election was the just oh-so-wonderful 1984 contest that brought Four More Years of policies that turned the US from the largest creditor nation to the largest debtor nation. So I came of political age under Reagan and Bush 41. It's been a damn long, dry, hard, tough 28 years. I can pray, and hope, that the long -- very long -- national nightmare may be coming to an end. And no, I'm not going to credit that. We all know very well where it came from. At least, those of us who have studied history do, as well as those of us who are old enough for it not to have been "history." I'm right smack in the middle -- barely politically conscious when those words were uttered. And I hope we can make those words real again: make the Constitution work again, make our great Republic a government of laws and not of men (OR women), and make this a nation where the people, once again, exercise power.

ARG in Chicago posted upthread a prediction of a landslide. I'm hoping for more. With luck, and perseverance, and vigilance, and work, it could be a tsunami. But only if everyone gets out there. Call. Donate. Canvass. Knock on doors. Talk to people. Get involved in a campaign. For me, it was McNerney in '06 (CA-11). It's incredibly sweet to pick up and rent a motel room in a city 70 miles away (Stockton, for me) for a few days, take charge of a precinct, talk to the voters, drag them to the polls (I dragged one couple out at 7:45 PM, they weren't going to vote, but I got them there) -- and then go to the victory party, watch the returns, watch them be within a few percentage points, and then suddenly, watch the % of precincts reporting go from about 40 to about 60%, and your candidate's margin jump by about 10 points, and have the campaign organizer hold up a sign that read "THAT WAS SAN JOAQUIN COUNTY!!" and to know that was YOUR county, that YOU worked in, and that 30 of those votes were YOURS. Do it. Get your ass out there, wherever "there" is for you.

I'd worked a lot of campaigns, and couldn't recall being on a winning one. When I finally got home that morning, I found an email -- from three days before, before the election, linking to this video. I watched it over and over and wept.

I also watched my hopes and optimism get dashed by Pelosi and Reid and Rockefeller and Hoyer and Emanuel and, of course, the Republicans that Pelosi/Reid et al have so successfully enabled over the last year-plus. But that's a different post.

But that's just preamble. Long-winded, and I apologize. Back in the Clinton 42 years, I believed that Hillary would have made a better President than Bill. And despite my strong misgivings about her record, corporate connections, etc., I still respect her. In fact, I'm going to post the following in a whole bunch of threads: I think HRC would make one hell of a fine Supreme Court justice. I do hope that all of the corporate toadying the Clintons have done has been for the sake of political expediency. Once on the Court she could drop all that and fight for what she truly believes in. Just imagine what good she could do for the country with a lifetime Supreme Court appointment. So my first, completely unsolicited, piece of advice for (as I pray will be) President Obama is: after you are sworn in, your first Supreme nomination to a filibuster-proof Senate after Stevens retires should be HRC. (Hopefully Stevens will retire before Ginsburg, although she is fighting cancer and probably needs to retire for the sake of her health.) Then, after Ginsburg retires, we can get, I'd hope, a second woman on the Court, perhaps a bit more progressive than HRC. I can think of a few of my own law professors, and that's just scratching the surface. Maybe they can make life so miserable for Thomas (who already is on record as, um, disliking his job) that he'll retire soon to make big bucks somewhere. Good riddance and may he live out his days in unearned luxury. That would give Obama his third nominee. A Kennedy retirement would make a fourth. Do everything right, and we could even get the Supreme Court back.

One can hope. One can pray. And I'm both hoping and praying that I'm not counting any unhatched chickens. There's a lot between here and November, and even more between here and 1/29/2009. But one can hope, one must pray, and one must work. HRC is right that speeches aren't enough. She is wrong to insinuate that BHO and his supporters don't get that, but that's just campaigning. I hope. I do know that Obama and many of his supporters do get it. The man's a community organizer, after all. And his campaign shows it, through and through.

Adelante. Vigilance. WORK. And -- dare I say it -- pace César Chávez, a great man and a great organizer, and with the best to Barack Obama, who is wearing those words well, and doesn't need to footnote them -- sí, se puede. Yes, WE CAN.

And, for the sake of our families, our country, our planet -- we must.

From the Hawaii Caucus:

At my ward, which had under 40 people in 2000 and 2004, there were at
least 2000 who managed to get in the room
(no doubt violating all fire regs) and lots more outside, in spite of
no parking for at least mile. (I looked). The situation was similar
all over
Oahu according to friends, basically complete chaos. No organization
could have been prepared for it, simply swamped
everyone. But everyone treated everyone with aloha, no complaints, in
spite of extremely long lines to get in if you needed to
register. Typically this ward would be dominated by elderly
Japanese-Americans. Tonight it was much younger and more diverse -
Chinese-Americans, Korean-Americans, Filipino-Americans, Native
Hawaiians, Locals, even a few European-Americans and
African-Americans. They ended up ripping up what paper they had and
marking it with the date, and having people write their choice in.
I did see two Hillary stickers, but my guess is a 80-20 win for Obama.
And not because he is a native son. Didn't get out till 10pm,
so don't expect counted results in for few days. But for sure an Obama
landslide.

Very well she is what I said she was and will continue to refer to her as such.Her and Bills past record speaks for itself.She is 10X more Dangerous than Bill.I leave you with this
Sha Na Na Say hey hey GOODBYE!!!And Good Ridance too!!!

On the Clinton speech... She didn't concede Wisconsin, didn't congratulate Obama, didn't even mention it. Didn't say anything like, "We lost one, but we'll keep on fighting." It was like she didn't think it happened.

This is the exact same mode of operations that we've seen from Bush in the past eight years: Don't acknowledge reality. I hate to see a Democrat acting as if people won't know it happened if she just ignores it.

I am glad to see people talking about the Supreme Court.

Aside from the murder of war, everything else that a President does can be undone, EXCEPT the Supreme Court. Until a couple years ago when Rehnquist passed away we were still living with the consequences of Nixon!

The post that just mentioned the possibility of Obama getting 4 appointments almost makes me giddy. I have been in a defensive mode since 2000. Just hoping we could keep that critical 5th Right Wing Ideologue from materializing.

It is almost too much to hope that we could actually get the Court back. That would be a critical piece of Obama's "change" puzzle falling into place.

As for Hillary-I would want her very carefully vetted, because with all her triangulation it is difficult to see where she stands on any number of critical issues.

Before the tide began turning for Obama (and I do not yet write off the Clintons-they are formidable and should not be counted out) I was beginning to worry about what kind of Justice she might place. If there are other Supreme Court historians out there, you will remember that FDR placed an apparent liberal leaning Harvard Law Professor on the Court-Felix Frankfurter-who turned out to be an ideological soul mate of Scalia and Thomas.

I am very excited about Obama. And the issue of the Supreme Court looms equally large to me. One of the reasons I am hopeful is that with Obama's apparent possible coat tails, we could get a Senate that will allow him to place liberals and not just moderates on the court. Imagine being able to forward human rights and civil rights in the way the Warren Court started!

Go Obama!

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Fair enough, though I think "ideological soul mate of Scalia and Thomas" might be a bit extreme. I haven't looked up his record since law school, then, and didn't really then either -- it was just impressionistic from reading his opinions. (How did he vote on the steel cases re executive power? I don't remember. Was he in the dissent? That would bring him closer to Scalomas.) And perhaps even more striking, Earl Warren was supposed to be a conservative. So was Souter, a Bush 41 appointee. Hasn't turned out that way.

You're right about the vetting, of course, and I'm not unsuspicious (to put it mildly) of HRC. But otoh, the Frankfurter, Warren and Souter examples perhaps show that you can only predict so far, even with the most careful vetting. I guess I'm rolling the dice (ahem) that HRC's heart and brain are actually in the right place, and hoping that once on the Court, she'd no longer need to triangulate, but would vote her actual conscience, on which I'm giving her the benefit of the doubt.

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gharlane -- Thank you for all of your good words. I see why you wept on watching the video to which you linked.

As to David Frum -- I first learned of him when he was interviewed on NPR shortly after Bush's first inauguration, in Jan. 2001. Frum was asked whether there was reason to be concerned at Bush's acknowledged ignorance of history. I wish I had Frum's exact words in reponse (I am of the school that believes that words are very important); I don't, but what follows is very close. Frum replied that "history" was just an arcane concern (those were not his words -- they do mean what his words meant) of intellectuals. "Leaders don't have to know about history -- about what has happened. Leaders have to have a vision of what CAN happen". Those are pretty close to Frum's exact words. My thought at the time (cleaned up here for family viewing) was that surely knowing what HAD happened in the past might help in forming an ACCURATE "vision" of what COULD happen in the future. To see a reminder of the utility of basing "vision" on a knowledge of history, look at Frum's Jan. 26, 2003 words as he spoke on CNN of Bush's then forthcoming State of the Union address: ". . . the president's laid out the case magnificently for the case to do something big about the Middle East. Now the question is what will that something big be? . . . think he's going to make a very clear and powerful case about what he is going to do next...You know one of the things people often complain about this White House is it doesn't leak that much and that's true. But it doesn't need to leak because the president, in his speeches, is very explicit about what he's going to do. If you want to understand the mind of this president, listen to his speeches. It's all there. He's told the world he is not going to allow Iraq, Iran and other terrorist organizations to threaten the peace of the world with these deadly weapons. They're threatening the peace of the world with these deadly weapons, and he's going to stop it. That's what he's told us." See, http://edition.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0301/26/sm.18.html
That is indeed what he told us. Go in peace, gharlane, to love and serve the Lord.

I have three young sons and am a 1 issue guy... well 2 issues, the first is Iraq. I don't think we should pull out all of our troops 16 months after the inaguration. I think that will ultimately lead to a draft. I think Obama's stance as seen on his website is flawed.

Obama's stance on Iraq is like Hillary's stance on home mortgage interest rates. Both will hurt the country in the long run.

Neither Obama nor Clinton has promised to have all American troops out of Iraq even by the end of their first four-year term as President. McCain, of course, envisions an open-ended ("100 years" or even 10,000) commitment of American troops, along the 'friendly occupation' model of Japan, Korea, and Germany.

What is Hillary's stance on home mortgage interest rates? I genuinely don't know.

Hillary wants to freeze interest rates for five years. I'm not sure if she only wants to do this for mortgage loans or all loans, but it's a terrible idea.

Essentially a "price control" which is reminiscent of the severely flawed econnomics of the early 70's. Nixon tried wage and price controls and it was an utter failure, leading to even more problems.

It may just be her populism showing in speeches, but if she actually did that, it would lead to some very bad things for the US ecnonomy.

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