Obama Wins Connecticut, Minnesota, Kansas, And Alabama
A big win for Obama: MSNBC and Fox call Connecticut for the Illinois Senator. He also is projected to win MInnesota, Kansas and Alabama. Here's the tally so far:
Obama:
ConnecticutMinnesota
Delware
Georgia
Alabama
Illinois
North Dakota
Kansas
Utah
Clinton:
MassachusettsNew York
New Jersey
Tennessee
Arkansas
Oklahoma
Late Update: Will tonight shape up to be a big repudiation of Bill Clinton, as WaPo's Eugene Robinson predicted even before the polls closed tonight?
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Expect Idaho and Alaska to go to Obama as well.
California is obviously the big question..
February 5, 2008 10:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
The HRC spin machine is in full force... "Hey, we managed to hang on to our lead in many states. No surprises for Obama!"
But on the other hand, Obama isn't winning any headline-grabbing states. MSM might not like that.
It's all going to come down to CA tonight.
February 5, 2008 10:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, and Minnesota
February 5, 2008 10:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
It'll be a blowout in CA for Hillary.
February 5, 2008 10:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, and Colorado and Arizona.
Obama is alllll over the map, he rocks it hard from coast to coast!
February 5, 2008 10:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Fired up! Ready to go!
February 5, 2008 10:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
yes we can!
February 5, 2008 10:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
All in all, despite the inflated projections on the east coast, this has been Obama's night thus far.
California is still looming and in a very large way though. Clinton can salvage herself tonight with a considerably large win coupled with a win in Missouri. If that happens, she'll probably be considered by the press at large as the "winner" tonight, but she needs to win by a fairly significant margin in California.
Obama has put together a very convincing argument tonight that regardless of results tonight, Clinton is vulnerable, and Obama can indeed put together the coalition he needs for a transfromative election win in November.
Still a lot of votes left to count.
February 5, 2008 10:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Connecticut is huge, but if he is close or wins California, someone give the Clinton camp the Pepto Bismol...They can have Mass, Obama will take California any day...
February 5, 2008 10:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama is actually closing on Hillary in her NE "strongholds", obviously she'll remain the winner there, but not in the same way Obama has won in other parts of the country. As far as delegates go Obama is looking good, as long as Cali says close.
February 5, 2008 10:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
In Minnesota, the latest polls were Clinton 44 to Obama 28.
In Kansas, the latest polls were Clinton 27 to Obama 22.
In Georgia, the polls said Obama 51 to Clinton 36 (it turned out to be Obama 63 to Clinton 35).
And now we move west...
February 5, 2008 10:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is Barack Obama's night because he has brought the Clinton Machine to a grinding halt.
I do not understand why anyone would believe a Clinton. She says she would stop the war, but has voted for the war at every important opportunity. The same people who refused to impeach a criminal president, the same people who have allowed multiple attorney generals flout the law, these are the people who run and support Hillary's campaign.
The definition of political insanity is voting for the same people, again and again, and expecting a different result from them.
Who was it that said "Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me"?
Aren't the Clinton's working on number two in the foolery department?
February 5, 2008 10:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
looks like Hillary is gonna take Missouri..
February 5, 2008 10:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've never commented here before, but I have to admit, I am a little concerned about all of the contention I've seen. What are we? Republicans? Hillary's doing well, Obama's doing well. Obviously, nothing will be decided tonight. The only real, clear, unobjectionable fact that can be derived from tonight's primaries is that overall, this entire campaign is a massive victory for the Democratic Party.
Honestly, no matter who wins it, (and anybody claiming to know anything about the final outcome is either from the future, or totally full of crap) the real victor is our party. There is no reason to squander our party unity in the pursuit of one candidate or another. I think that whatever nominee we come up with will be the most capable, strongest candidate that we've had in a long, long time. Really, it's a wonderful choice we to have to make. We get to pick between steak and lobster, while the Republicans have to choose between three bland TV dinners.
So really, not to be preachy, but lets keep the tone as optimistic uplifting as our prospects are. The only thing that can hurt us now is a bunch of angry, petty, sniping, and counterproductive squabbling. It's always been our worst problem as a party, and there is no reason to fall into the same traps now, on the eve of our greatest chance to be the party we know we can be. That said, this is a wonderful site, and its users are some of the best on the internet.
Now, commence ripping me to pieces.
February 5, 2008 10:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
+5. Well said.
February 5, 2008 10:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama looks to win 12 states tonight. If Cali goes Clinton, she'll win 9. That's a good message right there for Obama.
Not sure on delegate counts, but if Cali is close, it seems like Obama may win that as well.
February 5, 2008 10:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm interested to see how Missouri closes. McCaskill came from a large deficit to come back in the final precints to beat Talent. It's interesting how Missouri sort of replicates the county by county precint reporting from Clinton/Obama - Republican/Democrat. I'm an Obama fan and I hope he can come back at the end by taking the St. Louis and Kansas City vote. I'm in Louisiana so I have no idea if this is a reasonable correlation. But I imagine that St.L and KC have larger African-American populations.
February 5, 2008 10:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
LisB, I'm not sure what results from Kansas and Minnesota you were looking at, the results never showed Hillary ahead of Obama there.
And maybe I spoke too soon about Arizona, a little eager over here :P
February 5, 2008 11:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
CA is going to be a blowout for HRC.
February 5, 2008 11:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Get rid of caucuses. What a joke.
February 5, 2008 11:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Neither scored a knockout blow tonight. I do think that the longer the primary season goes, the better it looks for Obama.
February 5, 2008 11:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
polls are closed in CA and it doesn't appear to be a "blowout for HRC."
February 5, 2008 11:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Missouri within 4% now. Whatever just came in, cut the lead almost in half.
February 5, 2008 11:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
To wwjb:
I have been studying pollster.com for months. That's where I got the latest poll numbers for Kansas and Minn.
February 5, 2008 11:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
What's going on with this group? Sounds like Drudge. "Shock! Clinton wins states A,B,C....Obama wins states X,Y,Z!" Leave that kind of stupid reporting for Fox and Drudge. Truth is, very few states are winner-takes-all. If a candidate gets 51% of a state, it doens't necessarily mean they "won" the state. At best, they got 51% and the opponent got 49%, unless the state is winner-takes-all, which is very rare. For example, while Clinton "won" Nevada, Obama got 13 delegates while Clinton only got 12. A split of delegates will happen in almost every state in the Union. So don't pay as much attention to who "won" the state, as to the the number of delegates each candidate will receive.
February 5, 2008 11:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Paging Matthew Weaver. Paging Matthew Weaver. Clinton campaign in triage, need your help!
February 5, 2008 11:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
egon2020,
*savage ad-hominem attack*! *Pre-emptive pre-rebuttal to a strawman* and *appeal to authority!*
February 5, 2008 11:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
To wwjb:
True enough. It will all come down to the delegates. But I think Barack is looking awfully good tonight, and we have plenty more states to go.
February 5, 2008 11:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Forget the states. As pmk and others have said, its all about the delegates. Chuck Todd of MSNBC just announced the to-the-minute delegate count at Obama 594, Clinton 546. California should be close, as will the final count. Stay calm and take the long view. Also, mathematically it willbe difficult for either candidate to lock up the needed # of delegates - see here for more info: http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=3633
February 5, 2008 11:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
I do agree with pmk--while the delegate breakdowns are available elsewhere, they would be great to have.
February 5, 2008 11:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
When this night is over, could someone add up the popular vote for each candidate in every state so far? I suspect Clinton is ahead in the total votes by Americans category, but it's hard to tell. Omit Michigan and, if you like Florida.
February 5, 2008 11:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
News from a northern New Mexico polling site, where about 5 districts were voting today. Polls were open from noon until 7 PM. Ballots were running short by 2 PM. A handful more were sent over from a Santa Fe polling site. But by 4 PM, those were running out also. By the time I voted at 5 PM, they were using xeroxed copies with their own counting system, having received permission from the Dem Party of NM. All in all, about 1100 ballots were cast. In this heavily Hispanic area, Hillary won by about 15 votes.
Also considerable confusion in Santa Fe and Rio Rancho due to ballot shortages. Word is that not all sites were actively trying to obtain more ballots or work out a solution.
February 5, 2008 11:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, speaking solely as an Obama supporter, I am happy and pleased and what's happened so far tonight.
Speaking as a Democrat, I'm tickled pink.
February 5, 2008 11:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Isn't NM a caucus? If so, there are no 'ballots' are there?
MO within 19000 votes, or 2.86% with 88% in.
On GOP side, only a 400 vote difference!!! Wow!
February 5, 2008 11:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
ConradH,
Great info--thanks! Interesting will also be the now-defunct also-ran delegates.
February 5, 2008 11:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
NM is a party-run caucus, but the Dem Party site says that the voting will determine the allocation of the state's delegates. They also point out that this is the second time that a party-run Caucus has occurred in NM for a Presidential election. Both then (2004) and now, the results are used to select the pledged delegates to the Democratic National Convention. So it's a caucus but it's a primary. And they call 'em ballots.
February 5, 2008 11:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tonight should show that there *is* no Dem Party Unity. In fact, we are split.
HRC represents business as usual. Obama represents a break with the past, in the same way that Reagan was a break with the past.
You have to remember that Sr. Dems are abandoning HRC in surprising numbers. I think some in the party recognize that the party needs to move, either evenly or a tough, sharp tug.
Note that Obama has won in states that are crucial for the Dems. HRC represents old-style political thinking where you get 50% + 1... Obama is about grabbing the purple votes... a broader consensus which is getting crucial to moving the country forward.
Note too, that exist polls show that HRC wins for voters with $50K/yr.
This election could be as important as 1856 which saw the implosion of the Whigs. If the Dems don't move into the future (electing a woman doesn't count -- you need ideas), they will fracture.
February 6, 2008 12:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
Good lord look at the states Obama won. Idaho, North Dakota, Colorado, Connecticut, Alaska, Kansas, Delaware and Utah. Not exactly the stronghold of black voters. Every category saw improvement for Obama today even the latino vote. He still has a way to go but the broadbased appeal Obama is building to a multitude of different ethic, religious and gender-based groups has got to say something pretty clear.
An exciting night.
No doubt Clinton will speak tomorrow of California & New York, two states where the outcome really wasn't ever in doubt while Obama will talk of winning more delegates and more states. For a day that supposed to be the day that ended it all and offered up Hillary's coronation as the Democratic party's standard bearer, nothing was decided. Today was, for all intents and purposes, a tie. I still think though that the white vote is the big story from Obama. And that speech he gave tonight. Wow. He may have stolen the line from Maria Schriver but "We are the people we've been waiting for" just brought the house down.
I to do not know if Barack Obama can pull this thing through but with the right breaks in races this weekend and next week, he poised to take advantage of his focus on smaller races and caucus states. Depending on if enough super delegates start breaking his way this week, it isn't out of the question that Obama could be in a dead even heat with Clinton for delegates by this time next week.
Everything we have heard about Obama was that he was a slow starter but a spectacular closer...I think we are seeing that up close & personal.
One final note...I must admit getting teary eyed listening to his audience chanting USA USA USA with a black man onstage poised to have a truly serious shot at the White House. Obama may lose but he is now a force to be dealt with and he has changed the political dymanic in a way no one ever has in my lifetime.
February 6, 2008 3:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
Has anyone seen an analysis of what happened in Minnesota beyond youth turnout? Why the bigger spead than the polls?
February 6, 2008 4:18 PM | Reply | Permalink