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Obama Running Ads In Ohio And Texas
Barack Obama is going on the air in Ohio and Texas, two big states whose primaries have become Hillary Clinton's new firewall. The first ad up is the "Mother" spot, in which he talks about his late mother's difficulties with the health-care system when she was dying from cancer:
For some perspective, the primaries in these two states aren't until three weeks from now — a sign that Obama is already looked passed tomorrow's Potomac Primary and next week's contests in Hawaii and Wisconsin, and wants to lay the groundwork for some momentum after those expected victories.
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Very smart move. Hillary is the "default" candidate everywhere where Obama hasn't campaigned, and it takes time to chip away at that, it is an uphill battle. California, Massachusetts and Jersey are great examples of this. Obama had huge movement there, and if the elections had been a week later he probably would have won, or came razor close. Hillary has benefited thus far from Obama having to focus on the very next contest instead of campaigning nationally, so now that things are a bit more manageable he needs to cut her off at the knees in her newest "firewall" states. He doesn't have to win these, he just has to make sure she can't amass a lot of delegates. This will be hardest in Texas, because there is obviously a lot of racism there, and not many African Americans to compensate for that support, which is what we saw in Oklahoma. I hope I'm wrong though.
Anyway, I hope Obama keeps hitting these places and hitting them hard.
February 11, 2008 2:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
I would not pretend to posses any actual first-hand knowledge of the state of the race in TX, but I did read this morning that the heavily hispanic districts in TX have fewer delegates than the heavily black districts, so while I still expect her to win in TX, the delegate difference is going to be much smaller than might have been expected.
February 11, 2008 3:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Early voting in Texas starts Feb 19th. If Obama wants to advertise in Texas he has to do so soon, so this is not a surprise to me.
You won't see a lot of long lines at the polls in Texas. If there is one thing Texas does right it is early voting.
February 11, 2008 2:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Eric, you say "a sign that Obama is already looked passed" the upcoming primaries. I am not sure what you are getting at with that, I but I don't think he or his campaign is looking past anything. I do think he expects to have to fight for every vote he can in Texas (and Ohio) and is entirely appropriate to begin his introduction and that fight at an early juncture, even as he is trying to win primaries between now and then.
February 11, 2008 2:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for the perspective. I actually anticipated Obama's ceding the states to Hillary and not participating because, you said it, it's her new firewall.
Seriously, WTF? A sign that he's "already looked passed tomorrow's Potomac"? Familiar with the narrative of underdog and sport, are you? Let's see if we can tell all those Potomac voters that Obama doesn't give a rats ass about them because--yep, you guessed it!--he's already looked past!
Why not offer this perspective: Obama has run a comprehensive, aggressive campaign. Unlike Hillary (who doesn't seem to value all states/voters), he's been on the ground, organizing and campaigning in every state. That's not going to change and his efforts to win votes in Ohio and Texas further evidence.
February 11, 2008 2:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
woops! should be "looked passed..."
sorry.
February 11, 2008 2:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think he means "looking beyond", he isn't passing anything up, but he is definitely looking ahead to the future as well.
February 11, 2008 2:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Running ads and making personal visits are two distinctly different operations for any candidate. Obama is in Virginia and Maryland today, in Wisconsin later in the week. I'm sure HRC is doing similar logistics (although limited in funds).
In a general election all the balls are in the air all the time. There are just so many hours any one candidate can be actively campaigning. Obama taking out ads in Texas and Ohio is just smart. They are announcements of coming attractions.
It's just a well run operation.
February 11, 2008 2:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
wwjb, probably, but that's why I was looking for some clarification.
It is possible (and appropriate) for him to look down the road and prepare. But I don't think him doing so should leave the impression that he or his campaign is doing anything other than pouring their time and effort into doing as well as possible in all of the primaries between now and March 4.
February 11, 2008 2:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
i guess if you raise 32M in a month and another 8M in 36 hours, then you can do stuff like this.
The prediction markets are also beginning to favor Obama as well.
February 11, 2008 3:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
I see Obama taking Ohio by 10 percentage points, but TX will be very close. I can't imagine Hillary having a large win like she did in CA, although the demographics are somewhat similar... Yes, TX doesn't have anything comparable to the Bay Area, which went to Obama, but TX doesn't have a large Asian population, which went 75-23 for Hillary in CA and Asian's composed 8% of CA's vote.
Also, people in CA started voting in January and Hillary had a huge lead in early ballots due to having superior name i.d. Also, I can't imagine TX having as large of 65+ population as CA... Further,,,, Obama will be spending tons of time in TX from February 20-March 4th, and we've all seen what happens when he has time to meet the people...
Perhaps more Dems in leadership rally behind Obama and try to end this by March 4th, because I can't see how Hillary has a legit argument if she's shutout from Feb. 9 to March 4.
February 11, 2008 3:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
JTin: Ohio is a dogfight, and an extremely hard state to figure. I grew up there, went back to be a poll watcher there in 2004 where threats of Repub shenanigans drew the party to call for lawyers to watch the process, and then watched in horror as something weird happened with the state, dooming us to 4 more years of hell.
All that to say, its a VERY difficult state to forecast, and will be so on with regard to this primary. I would not be surprised at any result.
February 11, 2008 4:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, Texas is a big state for retirees, especially military ones (that would include my husband and my dad!). Frankly, we're a little stunned that we're going to have anything to say. Not a lot of input, given the arcane system for the Democratic party here, mind you.
This is a very red state. What gives me some hope as an Obama supporter is that the primaries are open. You request either a Republican or a Democratic ballot.
99% of my family, friends and neighbors are Republicans who most emphatically do NOT like Hillary. I just about fainted when some of those folks said they felt Obama was a good, decent man who would make an acceptable president.
I have signed up to volunteer for the Obama campaign here in San Antonio. Not sure what to expect, though!
February 11, 2008 4:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Buck up Texas Obama supporters! I think he can carry the state if he works it, there's time.
I don't know if he has time to make up the difference in the Latino vote. The Clinton's have been building those relationships for a long time and there may not be time to make a case for Obama to those folks. However, we "latte liberals" in Austin, Houston and Dallas should go strong for Obama, as will the African American voters in Dallas and Houston.
The screwy Texas delegate distribution system favors the big cities at the expense of South, East and West Texas. Also remember that 1/3 of the delegates are distributed through a caucus system. Obama's superior organization should be able to make a difference here.
February 11, 2008 4:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
My concern for Texas is the cutoff date, Feb. 19, for their popular early voting. He's got a good week in which he has to change a lot of minds. The extra time until March 4 is therefore less help than we would like.
February 11, 2008 4:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
The starting date for early voting is Feb. 19th, not the cutoff.
February 11, 2008 7:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
By the way - what a good ad - a striking picture of Obama's mother.
February 11, 2008 5:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
What makes you think that Obama is not listening to consultants. He is a unique candidate, and it is this uniqueness that he is running on, but this candidacy didn't come together over breakfast in his kitchen. There are a lot of political pros involved, but when you have a special product, it sells differently.
February 11, 2008 5:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Everybody here has got to start understanding the wacky dynamics of the Texas system. Statewide pop vote means nothing
See HERE
and HERE
That's a damn fine add btw
February 11, 2008 5:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Kudos to Barack and his team. No one, not even the MSM or the Hillbillies saw the wisdom of small states. Either Barack is a brilliat strategist himself or surrounds himself with great minds. They planned for the delegate race well before anyone else. He has, so far, campaigned personally in every contest state other than OK and IL.
Differences between his campaign versus Billary- yet again shows: His Judgement overrides Her Experience.
Touch Wood!!! I hope he repeats his weekend sweep on Tuesday.
February 11, 2008 6:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Kudos to Barack and his team. No one, not even the MSM or the Hillbillies saw the wisdom of small states. Either Barack is a brilliat strategist himself or surrounds himself with great minds. They planned for the delegate race well before anyone else. He has, so far, campaigned personally in every contest state other than OK and IL.
Differences between his campaign versus Billary- yet again shows: His Judgement overrides Her Experience.
Touch Wood!!! I hope he repeats his weekend sweep on Tuesday.
February 11, 2008 6:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Lornie- Thanks for the link. It really helps. Having said even if Barack can win the state wide popular vote by 2%, though say 10 fewer delegates-I think it will be big news for him.
The perception of another firewall will be broken.
February 11, 2008 6:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
This may not result is anything, but I picked this campaign to send a letter to Richardson to endorse Barack before TX primary. No harm in trying.
Here is the link:
http://action.richardsonforpresident.com/page/st/contact
Letter Below:
Dear Governor Richardson,
Your endorsement is one that many will receive with great interest because you have brought the same brand of caring and pragmatism that Senator Obama is providing. Your early endorsement could sway many.
Thank you for your consideration
Your Name,
February 11, 2008 6:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
kash79 - YOU'RE A BRIT! Nobody here says "Touch wood." We say "knock wood" - cuz we're tough Amurikins. Why simply touch something if you can smash it?
But to add to your point - he/they are not just smart going for small states but smart going for usually neglected rural parts of states. The Obama campaign went into regions that would not normally get the attention. It paid off - Nevada is a great example. He may have "lost" the caucus but he still came away with 1 more delegate. It was the rural areas that saved him.
Cheers.
February 11, 2008 7:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
I know nothing of Ohio but Texas is most definitely within Obama's reach.
Hillary is setting up camp in San Antonio and will of course focus on the Southern border region from the Rio Grande Valley to El Paso where most of the towns and cities are 90+% Hispanic. And she'll do well down there. But that part of Texas is a different world from the major population centers.
The fact is that nearly 12 million people (over 1/2 the state population) live within the greater Houston and Dallas/Fort Worth metro areas. Obama should do well in those areas with their black urban core and abundance of upscale white suburbs. I don't see either metropolis being particularly friendly to Clinton. Then there's Austin which is nearly as large as San Antonio and with its large student population is tailor-made for Obama. Finally, most of the remaining smaller towns and cities are in the Republican heartland where Hillary hatred has been so strong and deep that a lot of it has rubbed off onto Dems over the years.
The way things are moving, I would be shocked if Obama doesn't take the state.
February 11, 2008 8:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
So there is racism if a certain population votes overwhelmingly for Clinton, but not for Obama?
February 11, 2008 8:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Lady Eagle, if you projected any more you'd be a shoe-in for a job at the local cineplex, provided they were hiring. Which they're not, largely because of Hillary's husband's center-right policies. But go ahead and support the candidate(s) with an established record of caving to the GOP all whilst (dare I say) projecting that very vice onto HRC's primary opponent. I'm sure that injured white privilege will get you far, both in life and the general election.
February 12, 2008 1:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
Why do we think early voting is the right thing to do? I used to live in Texas and I can tell you as campaigns progressed there often was a sense among many voters that ops I already voted and I didn't know about ----. We in America, in my opinion, should be working harder at building a sense of responsibility to vote on election day as opposed to just a sense that I can lazily drop by and vote any time for weeks without any real thought as to issues or events.
February 12, 2008 8:52 AM | Reply | Permalink