Low information voters and the effectiveness of television ads:

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/low_information_voters_and_tel.php

Yes, Ben. It's working so well that Hillary is picking up and leaving WI (she just got there today) for the FIRST time) on Monday morning instead of Tuesday?

Yeah, that traction, Ben, is Obama's steamrolling right through HRC's same old lies & tactics.

LOL!

What's up with this site repeatedly referring to Ben Smith's opinions? And mostly when he's completely making stuff up without any evidence?

If the ads were so effective, WTF is Hillary abandoning her Wisconsin effort?

It's become obvious to me that the pundits in all forms of media benefit the most from a prolonged primary season between these two. That's why they try to push it.

Hear, hear.

Seeing bias in these posts is as unhinged as some of the Clinton people, and that's seriously saying something. Everyone take a deep breath and lets be nice to the people bringing us this site.

The polls in neighboring Minensota showed HRC leading there until the day of the caucus, when Obama won huge.

My guess is the polls are drastically undersampling two significant groups of people -- younger, college-aged voters who don't have land lines and independent cross-over folks who haven't voted before or in a long time and thus don't make the radar as a "likely voter".

I'd speculate that Obama will win Wisconsin by 10 points or so, and further speculate that the Clinton camp knows this, or they wouldn't have waited so long to head to Wisconsin and surely wouldn't have pulled out early. If they thought they had a shot at winning, wouldn't they be staying there at least through Tuesday?

This is the same strategy Clinton pulled in South Carolina and the Chesapeake.

I think the Clinton campaign has realized that the more voters see and hear of her, the more they remember why she is not the best option. It's the whole family drama and oligarchy thing that bothers me. I think it bothers other people too.

After VA, MD, DC Clinton didn't even acknowledge that she had lost anything. The whole idea is to play down everything before the "non"-firewall states of Ohio and Texas.

If she loses one of those two, her money will dry up faster than Lake Mead.

It's not surprising Obama is outspending her 4-1. She has no choice but to concentrate on states she think she may win. But they know better than to stay anywhere for more than 2 days...

I'm glad he's got the money to do this, and too bad the ads suck. Obama loses the high ground with 'Hillary Doesn't' and 'covers more people than Hillary'. His campaign is getting fatigued and going on automatic pilot. He needs to get a new ad man.

LOL

I'm so above the Politics of the Past! Therefore I am going to run a boiler-plate political ad that could have appeared in any campaign during the last thirty years.

Obama is aggressively campaigning retail here also.

Just this week, (I think it was Monday) Michelle had an event in De pere (15 miles from my house), and (wednesday) Obama did one in Oshkosh (30 miles away). Then, Obama was in Green Bay yesterday (20 miles away), and he will be in Kaukauna with a town hall tomorrow (3 miles away).

Due to my work schedule I missed all of this, but I have been seen him already in Milwaukee, and in Madtown last year.

Where is Hillary?

Obama just rocked the house here in Eau Claire, WI. Thousands showed up, starting at 6 a.m. for a 1 p.m. appearance. He started by speaking outside for those of us who couldn't get in because the arena was packed, and then had his hour-long speech piped out to us.

While most of his talk was pretty general - health care, social security, honoring troops and bringing them home, education, and global warming - he brought inspiration and excitement to our community.

Sadly, Hillary just cancelled a town meeting scheduled here for Monday. Our Obama sign is in the yard.

If she's getting outspent 4-1, her fundraising must really not be doing as well as she's been saying. I'm sure she'd love to win Wisconsin; pretty much the best thing she could do to help her in OH and TX at this point is to win something. Even Hawaii would be a desperately needed boost.

I guess there's no chance of her tossing it in before March, but if she gets blown out again on Tuesday she'll just be running for ego, I think. There won't be any way for her to win. I mean, that'd be 10 in a row, including caucuses and primaries in every part of the country. He'd be up commandingly in popular votes and delegates; he'd have shown he can beat her in places where she should really have a chance, he'd have demonstrated that his fundraising is much better and that it's an insurmountable advantage for her. I think, much as the Clinton campaign might like it otherwise, this Tuesday is really pretty much do or die for them.

But, of course, she could do well on Tuesday, and even win, in which case everything would look rather different....

Is it true that in Wisconsin they are calling Hillary the Stealth Candidate? She sneaked in, took a peek, and sneaked out.

Speaking of traction, shouldn't this be getting some traction, that she doesn't bother to spend any real time in a state she needs badly?

Or is it one of the states that Mark does not consider significant?

Joking aside, it is worth while going over to the Journal Sentinel to watch/listen to the Obama/Clinton interviews. (Sorry, I'm too lazy to find the link...google it.)

Obama's was videoed because he was actually there. Hillary's was phone conferenced because...well, she wasn't there.

Atrios had a post that Clinton's (or Penn's) narrative might be beginning to drive strategy. That is, none of these states really matter, OH an TX are everything, and so she's not going to campaign too hard in these states because they don't matter. And if she loses she can say, "Well, I was focused on OH and TX."

I have to admit to being confused, though, why she would go right to TX instead of dumping resources in WI. Because it seems like a winnable state for her, potentially--its not a clear loser anyway. And if she wins that the narrative shifts again and she's on the comeback trail. And if she's close, well, she gets delegates, which is what it's about now anyway. (Though narrative will drive delegates in OH and TX, I think.) And if she loses, it's two more weeks of Hillary not winning anything.

Unless they know something and feel she can't win? Or if OH and TX are so much more likely its better to dump resources in there, despite the incredible damage two more weeks of loss will do?

What's the wisdom here?

MILWAUKEE, WI - Hillary Clinton may be scaling back her campaign in Wisconsin, but you wouldn't know it from the looks of things outside the Midwest Airlines Arena in Milwaukee, where the Wisonsin Democratic Party is holding its annual Founder's Day Gala.

Groups of Clinton supporters manned the street corners in front of the arena, waving Hillary! signs and leading cheers. Someone who didn't know better would think Clinton was the heavy favorite in the Badger State for Tuesday's vote, as there didn't appear to be any outward sign of support for Obama outside the arena.

Clinton and Obama will address the crowd in separate speeches tonight, starting in just under an hour. The event was a sellout, with the party offering up last minute tickets for an "overflow" room. Those sold out as well. There are easily more than 1,000 in the main hall, with more filing in by the minute, trying to find seats among those already noshing on the first course.

Clinton and Obama have ratcheted up the attacks here over the last few days, particularly on the airwaves, where they've run ads accusing each other of ducking debates and trying to mislead voters. But Obama appears to have the upper hand, at least in terms of dollars, outspending Clinton by a whopping 4 to 1 in major television markets in the state, according to an analysis by WisPolitics.

Obama however holds a slight 4.3% lead in the RCP Average for Wisconsin. That lead is far from insurmountable, and with it comes built in pressure. Hillary loses nothing with a second place finish on Tuesday, even a double digit loss can be spun away easily since the Clinton campaign's entire emphasis has been geared toward March 4.

RCP.com

It's "getting traction" in the sense that Reagan's "there you go again" got major traction. Obama doesn't have a one-liner like Reagan (many have imitated it unsuccessfully) but the point is clear: every time Hillary gets up to dirty tricks and head games, trying to score points with politics as usual, Obama is going to call her on it and then move on to discuss real issues.

Which is how politics are supposed to function, rewarding the more honest candidate, despite all the crap we're used to. As Obama has said many times: yes, some will repeat lies until they're believed, but people forget, that also works for the truth.

Every time Hillary gets desperate and starts playing political head games she's made a fool of herself. It's habitual. Pakistan was her first major screwup, where she called him too hawkish and inexperienced for saying he'd go after ObL if there was actionable intelligence, then called him wimpy and inexperienced for ruling out nukes. Then it turned out her comments were widely ridiculed by FP experts across the board. :rolleyes:

Maybe she wouldn't need to play games if her record was better than killing HC reform for 16 years, her war vote, NAFTA, and so on.

>Hillary loses nothing with a second place finish on Tuesday, even a double digit loss can be spun away easily since the Clinton campaign's entire emphasis has been geared toward March 4.

I guess this is the goal, but if Obama does win on Tuesday I can't imagine it won't actually be a loss for Hillary. They can spin it all they want--and they will--but it would then be another Obama sweep and it will raise more doubts about her campaign, and one more week of the talking heads asking if Hillary can win.

As far as headgames, her latest campaign motto "We're in the solutions business," sounds like it game out of Mark Penn's fevered brain. It is so bad. First of all, using the words "business" to describe her agenda cannot play well in the blue collar "labor" states like WI, OH, TX, and PA. And to couple "business" with "solutions" merely reinforces her own style, which is to focus on Penn's "microtrends" approach of mastering the details of policy.

After 8 years of Bush people want more than solutions. They want to turn this country in a new direction, and she is not offering that. She is offering expertise at solving isolated problems, but there is no over-arching vision.

I say again, her slogan "We're in the solutions business" is a real loser. For God's sake what we need is a president not a management consultant.

Chicago Tribune latest update on Hillery in Wisconsin.

She is bailing out of the State ahead of what was planned.

Hillary Clinton campaign 'under the weather'

By Rick Pearson and Glenn Thrush

MILWAUKEE—Democratic presidential contender Hillary Clinton, already having trimmed her Wisconsin campaign schedule in advance of the state’s Tuesday primary, now finds the weather a further obstacle on her last full day of campaigning in the Badger State.

A planned trip to Green Bay was canceled early today as weather forecasters looked at rain and freezing rain turning to snow later as well as winter weather advisories and warnings covering the area from Madison southward.

Clinton’s campaign had originally planned four days in Wisconsin to try to challenge rival Barack Obama on the ever-so-crucial delegate count, but viewed the possibility of winning the state as an upset. But the campaign cancelled Tuesday, primary day, in the state and is now looking at leaving Monday with the possibility of heading to Texas or Ohio, where she needs victories in the two delegate rich states that hold primaries on March 4.

Clinton has been taking a hit locally for running a campaign from afar, using TV ads to criticize Obama in advance of her arrival in the state on Saturday. Clinton and Obama made separate appearances before a state Democratic fundraiser in Milwaukee last night and the greeting she received was markedly cooler than the one Obama got.

As for Sunday, the Clinton campaign is re-examining its plans for other stops. She is supposed to visit Wausau and Madison before returning to Milwaukee but aides say the weather—which would have made an easy excuse for them to exit the state—has thrown the schedule up in the air.

Obama’s campaign, also citing weather conditions, scrubbed an appearance in Kaukauna. But unlike Clinton, Obama has been a regular visitor to the state.

New icon test:

Yes she can!

Well, here we go again.

Let's see, Obama is winning the spin war. Obama outspends Hilary in Wisconsin.

Obama must be, gasp, sorty of a slimy sort of insider, lobbyist sort of guy, engaging in the political underworld, and winnning. He must be pulling out all the stops and dirty tricks!

These headlines are not flattering to the Obama campaign, and I see them crafted that way consciously. In effect, you harm Obama by reporting on his more unflattering (not necessarily unethical) victories.

All candidates need money, all candidates attempt to win the spin war. In a perfect world, or that heav.. they wanted, money or spin may not exist. In our country they do, and by crowing Obama as the king of spin publicly, you're really just damaging his reputation.

Money spent is one of many gauges of momentum, and you picked an odd one to report on. Keep in mind that he has much more money to spend, because he's more popular, and winning the election, and has more votes, and more delegates.

According to the NYT Hilary won Nevada though. Really? In reality is it so?

Again, you're a propagandist and not a reporter. That's my opinion, of course.

It can be upwards of 1 million dollars for a week's worth of advertising in TX. I haven't found any article that breaks it down by market; they just cite the 1 million dollar figure. Ex: http://news.aol.com/elections/story/_a/obama-basks-in-crowds-momentum/n20080211135409990028

The million dollar per week figure probably includes DFW, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio. It may not include El Paso, Corpus Christi, Midland/Odessa, or any of the large college towns like Lubbock, Waco, San Angelo, and Bryan-College Station. There is a little overlap between areas, but not a lot given the size of the state.

Also factor in the fact that technically speaking we're in February sweeps. The writer's strike may have put this part of the market on hold, but I imagine advertising is more expensive in February. This is pure speculation, however.

So Obama is outspending Clinton 4-1 in WI and he's only up by 5?

A little anecdotal gossip for late on a Sunday evening.

Spent the afternoon at an organizing party for Obama supporters and delegates here in central Pa. Big turnout, lots of energy. One of the attendees was a big-city pol who's running for one of the statewide offices. He chatted with some of us after the meeting, and said he thought that as of today, Obama should take Wisconsin, would lose Ohio and TX but only narrowly, and would win Pa. Pittsburgh and Philly are going to go for Obama big-time, he said, and the turnout among college students for Obama in the central part of the state would keep Hillary's margins of victory small enough to let Obama claim the state. Rendell's endorsment last week was just a repeat of one 6 months ago, he said, and was done to shore up support that was starting to crumble for Hillary.

He hadn't seen the latest polling in Texas, and was somewhat pleased to hear that the Obama trendlines were going up like his national polls, and the ones in Wisconsin did a week ago.

I'm from Ohio, and the polls don't look good there. There's little movement for Obama and so I don't think he can hope for a win. But Texas looks to be in play.

I also just talked to my brother in Wisconsin. The weather's an issue there, as they just got another 8-inches of snow on top of the nearly 75 they've gotten so far this year. Could put a crimp in campaigns' plans, but then, Badger State Cheese heads are used to this sort of thing. No real news , other than he's thinking Obama's lead will hold.