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Obama Meets With John Edwards

Barack Obama met with John Edwards today at his North Carolina home, just as Hillary Clinton did a week and a half ago. Obama campaign spokesman Bill Burton told CNN that Obama met with Edwards "to discuss the state of the campaign and the pressing issues facing American families."

Edwards might be out of the race, but he certainly isn't being ignored by the remaining candidates. Both Hillary and Obama are probably hoping that an Edwards endorsement could help attract some of the working-class and left-wing voters who had been drawn to his candidacy.


192 Comments

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I really don't see any advantage for Edwards to endorse either candidate while they are running 50/50.

If he is looking for a spot in either administration, (and I certainly hope he is,) there is no good reason to alienate either Obama or Clinton.

I read he spoke with Al Gore, and it appeared that they both were going to let the nomination process come to a conclusion. That's not only sensical, it's good "politics."

Except the candidates aren't running 50/50. If Edwards waits too long, his endorsement doesn't buy him anything. March 5 will probably be too late.

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Codswallop. 48%/43% is pretty damn close to 50/50, either candidate could beat the other when the undecideds decide. It sure as heck isn't any reason to drop out. If it was, then Obama should have done so a few months back.

This whole trying to bully Clinton out of the race is juvenile, and doesn't reflect well on Obama supporters.

Touchy, aren't you? How is pointing that it isn't 50/50 (and, no matter what you say, 48/43 is a far cry from 50/50 in elections) an attempt to bully Clinton out of the race?

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How is pointing out that 48/43 is within the margin or error being touchy? They are for all intents and purposes statistically tied. Anything else is wishful semantics.

I understand that you fervent Obama supporters are (nearly) akin to those 3 monkeys that see and hear no evil, at least about your "precious" (aka Obama) I'd appreciate it if you also made like the third monkey and spoke no evil.

This is still a democracy, regardless of whatever fascist leanings Senator Obama's more sophomoric supporters are spluttering today.

And BTW, I'm not a Clinton supporter. I didn't vote for her in the primary. I'm just sick and tired of the snotty and mean-spirited comments that surround anything not overwhelmingly Oh!Bamanic.

It's really going to be something when all you zealots find out he's just another pol. I worry for his personal safety, actually.

It wasn't your pointing out that 48/43 was "within the margin of error" of 50/50 that I labelled "touchy"; it was you going off on "juvenile" Obama supporters. (Said touchiness being confirmed by your second response.) And, by the way, Obama's lead in pledged delegates, established over a large number of primaries and caucuses, is quite a bit outside the "margin of error," however you define that concept.

workerbee:
How is pointing out that 48/43 is within the margin or error being touchy? They are for all intents and purposes statistically tied. Anything else is wishful semantics.

How is that "within the margin of error"? If you're talking about the delegates then the sample size and population are essentially the same, so there's not really a margin of error. Statistics 101.

The football analogy is a good one. If NY had beat New England 48 to 43, nobody would be saying it was a "tie" and "within the margin of error."

I think what you mean to say is that it's still really close. So that begs the question of whether Obama's pledged delegate lead of 130 or so is insignificant relative to the remaining number still to be decided.

Either way, I think John Edwards has clearly cheapened his endorsement by waffling for too long.

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If New York had given up, they wouldn't have won, period.

Ya think?

I didn't read or hear anyone say anything about giving up in this post/thread, did you?

I haven't heard anyone try to "bully" either of the candidates out of the race. If you've heard that then it's probably some fringe view which doesn't reflect the typical attitude. As long as fair chance at winning, I see no problem with them both fighting it out to the finish. Wouldn't you agree?

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Third post on the thread, (timewise)

Maybe now you'll get why I got annoyed. I won't hold my breath though...

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/02/obama_meets_with_john_edwards.php#comment-2605294

Boy, you folks really do just see what you want to. You (the collective you) sure like to pile on, though, don't you? No substance, just ad hominem, then the faux outrage when I toss it right back at you.

I'll leave you to your rude awakening.

:)

If you all can villify Edwards and Hillary Clinton so easily, I can't imagine what will happen when Obama takes off his socks and reveals his feet of clay.

Here I'll help you since maybe copying and pasting isn't one of your specialties (like childish name-calling):

"Edwards could do a great thing for the Democrats and for the nation by endorsing Obama, and helping the nation move forward, past the Bush-Clinton era of divisive, destructive, mean-spirited politics."

Funny, nothing there about "bullying" anyone out of the race or expecting them to drop out. Neither candidate would drop out or be bullied out just because Edwards endorses the other. Get real.

workerbee:
"Boy, you folks really do just see what you want to. You (the collective you) sure like to pile on, though, don't you? No substance, just ad hominem, then the faux outrage when I toss it right back at you."

I'll leave you to your rude awakening. :)"

Toss what back? Insults? I guess that's to be expected when you lack the ability to argue intelligently. Ad hominem is about 99% of your entertaining posts. Oh, and thanks for finally offering to leave. :)

workerbee:
"If you all can villify Edwards and Hillary Clinton so easily, I can't imagine what will happen when Obama takes off his socks and reveals his feet of clay."

There's been some legitimate criticism towards Edwards and Hillary for various reasons, so I'm sorry you can't handle that. However, hardly anyone has seriously attempted to "vilify" them since the fact of the matter is simple: one lost and the other is losing. Deal with it. ^_^

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Obama supporters point out that he has the lead and appears to have the momentum so if Edwards wants to leverage his support this would be a good time.

You reply by calling Obama supporters juvenile, fascist-leaning, snotty and mean-spirited and (nearly) akin to the three monkeys (hear, see and speak no evil).

Yet somehow those of us reading the entries should take away the idea that Clinton supporters are so much more civil than Obama supporters. Doesn't read that way to me.

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If you'd read for comprehension, dude, you would have seen I wasn't a Clinton supporter.

Pardon me if your intellectual skills are less than impressive.

By the way, the Obamaite is incorrect, according to the Gallup Poll, which I was refering to, they are tied.

Get over it...

Dude!

LOL

Not anymore!

DUDE!

LOL

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Edwards could do a great thing for the Democrats and for the nation by endorsing Obama, and helping the nation move forward, past the Bush-Clinton era of divisive, destructive, mean-spirited politics.

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Funny, at times like these I think of the last Superbowl.

According to people like you, the New England Patriots should have just walked off the field at halftime, as it was quite obvious that the momentum was swinging to the Giants and the score was really close, they should have just owned up to the fact that they were going to lose.

They did, but just barely. The second half of the game was actually the best part.

It is February. The election is in November. If Obama is the eventual candidate, fine. I don't think that is a given. A lot can happen. Balls get intercepted, quarterbacks get sacked.

What surprises me is how little faith you show in your candidate to eventually prevail. Not even as much as a football fan shows.

I just can't decide if it's poor sportsmanship, or the shallow fear of losing once you've stuck your neck out to support someone. It's akin to being a schoolyard bully, as far as I can tell.

Not anything to be proud of, for sure.

But in football, one cannot vote for one team or the other, and teams don't win by getting votes.

The whole football analogy is DEAD TO ME!

Senator Edwards what do you want? It's been a few weeks since you have dropped out. Why are you dragging this on?

I don't like the image of a woman and an African American having to run to your home state to report to you and possibly get your blessing.

Capuche?

The general inferiority complex Clinton supporters have shown reflects poorly on Clinton.

Just sayin'.

The Gen Election polls reflect worse. She will lose OR. She will lose PA. She will lose NV. She will lose OH. What states can she win vs. McCain? NY? CA? Maybe? There is not a Democratic candidate in the country who can win a presidential election while having to defend Blue States against the GOP. Mr. Obama CAN and will compete and win in RED and PURPLE states.

Having Hillary as the nominee in Nov. will lead to not only a loss of the presidency, but also significant losses in the US House and Senate, not to mention the effect on state legislatures.

Mr. Pen might argue that: "a democratic presidential candidate who loses in blue states does not necessarily harm the rest of the ticket." Right...

Oh, agreed. Furthermore, the recent Pew Research poll on likability indicates Clinton would actually mobilize the GOP base AND lose the independent vote to McCain.

But you can't tell Clinton people that. They're not hearing it.

Judging by the recent trends, there is no more room left for Sen. Clinton to climb. The more time Sen. Obama gets to spend in front of voters, the better he does. He hasn't even stepped foot into Ohio yet, and there is plenty of time (and a plethora of young college students) to propel him to victory there too. If Sen. Clinton loses either TX or OH on March 4th, will she really continue to fight all the way to the convention? this would be terrible for the Democratic Party.

Sen. Clinton is strong willed and a formidable opponent. I am afraid, however, that the wheels are coming of her campaign, much like they have come off the "Straight-Talk Express."

What does Sen. Clinton or the party have to gain by her staying in after losing TX or OH?

I wonder will Clinton become the Huckabee of the Democratic party in this race

If I were a supporter of Sen. Clinton (I'm not, btw), I would be very unhappy and, well, angry if she stepped out of the race before Tues. primary in Wisconsin and the March 4th primaries in OH and PA. The fact is that very strong wins by her in two - or all - of those contests would shift things right upside down (again....). If, however, she does poorly in two or all of those primaries, then it might be time to look toward ending the bashing on one another and start getting ready to take on the Republicans.

As an Obama supporter, would I LIKE it if she conceded? I guess so - it would be fun to start celebrating. On the other hand, there would be those disappointed/angry Clinton supporters (see above) who wouldn't be on board. And I couldn't blame them.

A possible scenario: Clinton does not do well enough in WI, TX and OH to keep going without ripping the party in two (e.g., seating MI and FL or convincing superdelegates to go against their districts/states/primary voters). At that point, she turns her back on Mark Penn, Wolfson *and* Bubba and becomes a true stateswoman: stepping back from this race for the good of the party and the country and focusing her considerable strenghts on HERSELF and the future she could easily have: Senate prominance, Majority Leader perhaps, Sup. Ct. perhaps.

But it isn't fair or responsible to expect her to do so before March 5th at the very earliest - her supporters would be (rightfully) up in arms.

The only way she steps away before March 5th is if she completely runs out of cash. Even then, she'd probably still do another loan.

The only way she steps away before March 5th is if she completely runs out of cash. Even then, she'd probably still do another loan.

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Don't get your hopes up. She has more on hand than Obama right now according to open secrets.

He's been spending like a drunken sailor.

:)

Are you retarded? Those cash on hand numbers are from before Iowa.

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No, but apparently you are. Those totals are for the end of December. If you can find anything more current, let's see it. January's numbers are due out on the 20th. I can hardly wait.

It has been widely reported that Obama is outspending Clinton by like 4 to 1.

Now, if you use your brain, instead of violently exerting your knee into your forehead, you'll look at those numbers and say, hmmmm, Obama is outspending Hillary, and has, so far, spent more on his campaign.

Doesn't that throw up even a teeny red flag for you?

If Senator Clinton loses Texas, Ohio or Pennsylvania, she will concede. The only way she can lose any of those states is for Senator Obama to break out of his Black, upper class liberal, student demographic. On the other hand, if Senator Obama should lose Wisconsin, his campaign would be in the toilet. As a matter of fact, if he doesn't break out of his base in Wisconsin, we'll get a preview of likely results for the big three coming up. Either way, if you're an Obama supporter, you should be trying to get him over the top in Wisconsin. If it's close there, the super delegates are going to wonder.

Also, IMHO, Obama needs to find a way to duck the Edwards endorsement, and so does Clinton. An Edwards endorsement is bound to bring fire in some form from Feingold, since he is on the record as thinking Edwards is a phoney. I do love the constant repetition of the Rove talking point about the "divisive Hillary Clinton who will energize the Republican base." For one thing, it's gratuitous, since there are no undecideds around here. For another, it's naive to think that they won't find plenty to hate about Obama once they get him locked in as the Democratic candidate. Make the argument that Obama will run better among Independents, but get off the OMG the Republicans will really go after us if we nominate Clinton. They can manufacture the venon whenever they need to.

Don't agree. If WI is a squeaker, it is not conclusive either way. Hillary needs to win big (after all she has lost 8 straight), but Obama only needs to win to maintain credibility (after all it will be 9 straight).

This whole playing of the victim by Clinton supporters doesn't reflect well on them.

What about Led Nudd's post was remotely related to bullying Clinton out of the race? He was just stating his opinion that one of the candidates is ahead and the race will probably be over after March 4th. If you're too sensitive to even face that kind of opinion, you probably shouldn't be in politics.

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MikeMo, er, dude!!!

Ned-dude was wrong. Ned -dude was also being an aggressive prick by suggesting that Hillary should bow out. That's called poor sportsmanship, son, I mean, dude.

Ya know, just because something is posted on a blog doesn't mean it's true. For instance, I'm not a Hillary supporter and hey, I was born the same year the sainted one was, but I'm not a fascist airhead, either. Suggesting that Clinton should bow out when TODAY'S Gallup poll shows them in a statistical dead heat is, in a word, moronic.

Maybe you need to read more closely, and not let your emotions get the better of you.Politics ain't beanbag. Grow a set.

You are a total weirdo.

the dead heat is over

Have fun reading that more closely, "non Hillary supporter".

For what it's worth, I logged into Obama's website last night and checked out his supporter's upcoming events in Texas ZIP codes of El Paso (79901-up) and Houston (77001 and up).

Then I went into Hillary's website and did the same.

In El Paso, there is one campaign event for Hillary, and it's a fundraiser where they hope each attendee will donate $1000 to her campaign.

For Obama, there are four events, but two are "from home emailing" campaigns.

In Houston, there are 9 Hillary events, some of them asking for donations of $1000 in order to attend.

For Obama, there are 72 supporter events.

I'll check out Ohio next.

new poll by ARG clinton ahead in wisconsin 49 ..43....7 undecided......the MSM hasnt mentioned it all day....if obama was leading new poll it would be repeated every half hour

ARG had her with a bigger lead last week.

Wrong. ARG always gets it wrong. Some posters automatically discount their polls:

http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=3993

Yeah, I believe that ARG poll every bit as much as I believe the one where Obama leads by seven in Texas.

ARG hasn't got anything right in this campaign other than the point spread in CA. Not a single other race was right.

Poor bravo6 is going to have a painful political hangover on March 5, because according to the exit polling data:

In other words, it is hard to identify a momentum effect here. Clinton's losses in the contests are as explicable as any of her losses before or on Super Tuesday. Obama has systematically won states that play to his particular strengths since the Iowa caucus. So has Clinton. Her problem has been that she has not had any good states in the last week.

This is not to say that momentum is not playing a role. The point here is more modest: if it is playing a role, it is currently undetectable.

Leaks indicate strongly that Edwards is going to come out for Clinton. If he does, TX and OH and WI are in the bag for Hillary. Meanwhile, Edwards campaigns for her in NC.

Slow and steady wins the race, as they say.

NB: "This is not to say . . . is currently undetectable" (above) s/b ital too, as it is still quoting from the linked article.

Nice try. Edwards coming out for Clinton does not necessarily translate to all his supporters moving over with him. I think it is a wash. When the dust settles, it will be about 50-50, some of his supporters going to Clinton, an equal number, possibly more, going to Obama. Edwards power to move voters in the primary is no longer there, in fact was never there, otherwise he would still be in the race.
How useful he might be in the general can't be a whole lot better. Whatever influence he has will have dissipated as a function of his absence from the stage. Out of sight, out of mind.

If Edwards is so out of mind, then what's Obama doing courting his endorsement?

Hillary doesn't need all of Edwards's supporters, she just needs a boost in her white male demographic in the next few states.

Unless you are privy to his mind, how do you know he went there to get Edwards' endorsement? It could be he just wants Edwards to stay neutral.

Um, Obama can't convince Edwards to stay neutral on the phone?

OMG! Please don't let him endorse Clinton before Feingold does.

First:

Thanks TPM for making me look at McCain's ugly mug ALL DAMN WEEKEND. Maybe you can explain that crap to your readers some time soon. How many employees do you have Josh? Yourself and 3 hamsters? You can't change the home page once over the weekend? Sad. I teach online for pennies and I give my students better than that. What's your excuse?

Now in regards to Edwards:

Two things:

1) I am pissed. He made Barack take a day off and fly out to meet with him. If Edwards had any TRUE INTEREST in Barack at all, he would understand that he is running for his political life. Which means he certainly wouldn't have made him interrupt everything and come visit him in his over-decorated, 28,000 square foot mansion.

Which leads me to #2:

2) The problem with Edwards is that he now appears to be pimping himself out to the highest bidder. If he gave a rat's ass about either candidate he wouldn't have made either on of them interrupt their schedules.

Which leads me to #3:

3) Edwards is going to come down on Clinton's side. Here's why: She is desperate and will promise him the moon. Barack on the other hand is negotiating from a position of strength. He won't offer up the same loot. If there is one thing Edward's learned from watching his daddy work on the mill it is this: Grab all you can grab!

dude, cut some slack.
didn't he just say his wife is coming up on being 10 months pregnant?

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Thanks for demonstrating just how nasty and totally out of touch with reality Obamaites are.

You don't have to post here...'dude...' like, ya know?

and don't let the door hit your dumb ass on the way out.

John Edwards thinks he's a greater man than he is.

I suspect Edwards will endorse Clinton. She's is the worst position at this time and thus would be ready to make the sweetest deal. Edwards is only human and could be swayed by such a deal, especially since his endorsement could be the spark that turns it all around for her.

That said, it's dangerous ground. If I was in his position I'd be all about securing promises from both candidates for his assurance that he would not endorse the other. Playing each off the other would be win-win for him. He comes out and endorses nobody and has secured what he wants from both.

I'm thinking Edwards is a pretty smart man and would not be surpised at all if that is what he actually did.

Okay, I just checked the events for Obama and Hillary in Ohio, based on ZIP codes for various cities, and I have to say there was a lot of overlap, seeing as how Ohio isn't all that huge.

Bowling Green events
Hillary = 7
Obama 62

Akron events
Hillary = 12
Obama = 71

Cleveland events
Hillary = 10
Obama = 59

Toledo events
Hillary = 10
Obama = 64

Cinci events
Hillary = 8
Obama = 95

Dayton events
Hillary = 10
Obama = 116

Columbus events
Hillary = 10
Obama = 124

Two other things I noticed while visiting Hillary's site:

One, a lot of the folks on her blog are writing "Yes we will" in their messages.

Two, the "Calls Made" meter on Hillary's site read 1,420,681 last night at 9:32 pm.

It reads 1,420,681 tonight at 8:23 pm.

Hmm.

workerbee:
How is pointing out that 48/43 is within the margin or error being touchy? They are for all intents and purposes statistically tied. Anything else is wishful semantics.

How is that "within the margin of error"? If you're talking about the delegates then the sample size and population are essentially the same, so there's not really a margin of error. Statistics 101.

The football analogy is a good one. If NY had beat New England 48 to 43, nobody would be saying it was a "tie" and "within the margin of error."

I think what you mean to say is that it's still really close. So that begs the question of whether Obama's pledged delegate lead of 130 or so is insignificant relative to the remaining number still to be decided.

Either way, I think John Edwards has clearly cheapened his endorsement by waffling for too long.

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Well gee, valen.

If you look at the upper right of your screen, you'll see the latest Gallup poll which says

Obama 48%, Clinton 43%

Here's what Gallup says about those numbers:

Methodology: The results reported here are based on combined data from Feb. 14-16, 2008, including interviews with 1,031 Republican and Republican-leaning voters, and 1,202 Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters. For results based on these samples, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls

IOW: It could be 45%/46%. Elementary poll reading. Not even community college levels needed, Einstein.

You Obamaniacs are certainly proving that you are extraordinarily uninformed, as the conventional wisdom goes.

As I said a statistical tie. And, like, you --I'm using the collective "you" here, as "you" seem to be fond of using the collective "we"--might want to work on that condescending attitude thing. It kinda sorta makes you appear to be up waaaay past your bedtime.

I'd watch the Edwards bashing, too. After all, your candidate wouldn't actually have any policy if he hadn't relied on Edwards to come up with them, first.

if their numbers are right, they set the odds that clinton is ahead at about 2%.

News flash to workerbee: The candidacy isn't being decided by some poll.

As for the other name calling, patronizing comments, and flamebait talking points, it reflects pretty poorly on your level of discourse.

You've been good for a chuckle. Don't let the door hit you on the way out.

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The proper response when someone proves you were mistaken, (that is, WRONG), is "I was mistaken."

This 60 on 1 stuff is amusing. Not half as amusing as the utter lack of character displayed by Obama's people here.

"I was mistaken."

Good. I'm glad to hear you were man (or woman?) enough to admit it. :)

Some of us never bother looking at those poll numbers, and your reference lacked specifics. If you're talking about the polls (which don't decide the race) then yes, there's a margin of error. If you're talking about the delegate count (which does decide the race) then no there isn't a MOE. It's just that simple.

Oh, and news flash: The Big O is now ahead of Clinton in the latest polls OUTSIDE of the margin of error. So much for it being "statistically tied."

workerbee:
"This 60 on 1 stuff is amusing. Not half as amusing as the utter lack of character displayed by Obama's people here."

Don't worry, your flamebait posts here are doing a great job of getting him more support and votes. Thanks! :)

48 hours from now we will find out Clinton's latest excuse.

Got to love the homie-hug there in NC.

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I'm an Obama supporter but I think we shouldn't count Clinton out just yet. It's still pretty close and there are enough states left for the pendulum to swing the other way. Even Wisconsin could go either way.

Just sayin', Clinton supporters are as determined for her to come out on top as Obama supporters are for him...easy to assume all the passion is on our side.

I'm glad that they are meeting. It means that Edwards hasnt decided yet.

Im not sure how effective an Edwards endorsement would be this late in the game, but if he were to endorse Obama, it would play well into his momentum narrative.

As an add-on to my comment above, about the stalled meter at the Hillary site, I'd like to add that when I was checking out Obama's site I noticed that he's had 454,358 donations so far in 2008....as of 2/17/08 at 7:59 pm.

I happened to have $10.56 left on a gift card given to me by my managers at work as a holiday gift, so I donated it to Obama to see if his meter would move.

I just checked his site and he now has 454,584 donations....as of 2/17/08 at 9:26 pm.

Yay! Thanks for giving. Obama's meter does move. I don't check Clinton's, so I'll take your word for it that theirs is not. However, to be generous, it may be that their system is not set up to update totals in real time. It's not great for them, but they may be collecting money (and calls), and then do a bulk update periodically.

Like I said, I'm trying to be generous here.

Question...What is Obama's favorite breakfast food? Waffles

What is Obama's favorite resturant?? Waffle House

If you wait long enough, he'll change his position. He is getting to be almost like Mitt Romwhatever...

If you have Hilary, Bill and John Connally in the room, how many are Democrats? Zero.

Have you ever been to Waffle House? Great place.

As a jibe, though, this needs work.

That's classic stuff.

Save some of that for when you play the big rooms.

I felt compelled to compete with someone explaining how they gave 10.56 just to watch the counter move, i find that classic. duh....


Rather than deciding between Clinton and Obama, Edwards' decision is whether or not to endorse. Given his recent conversations with Al Gore, and Gore's reported interest in helping to broker a deadlocked convention, Edwards might find more reward in remaining neutral.

Junionman, how many times have you made Hillary's ticker move?

;-)

obama’s lies abt his ancestry confirmed… not african american, he is actually arab american.

kennethelamb.blogspot.com/2008/02/barak-obama-questions-about-ethnic.html

Jubjub,

you are nothing but a GOP talking points spouting shill.

these deplorable claims have been throughly debunked, and you reveal yourself as nothing but an ignorant prick.

Why do people insist on linking crappy hit blogs about Obama?

I saw a video clip of Obama's grandmother in Kenya. I am no anthropologist, but she looked African to me.

Well, that is personal, but i will say i have been involved donating and making calls. Please don't be offended by my humor, I get so tired of all the negativity. Can't I just like someone else besides Obama?

hate to break it to you junior.
but if you are wanting to raise a gravel fan club, that ship is already sunk.

I mean, come on.

Over 200 donations within an hour and a half, on a Sunday night?

Thanks, jubjub!

Where would we be without wise sages like you to guide us?

?What is your point? I don't vote on the candidate that gets the most donations within an hour and a half on Sunday night LisB ;).....here is the counter I have been watching the past several years.

www.backwardsbush.com

@ WorkerBee

Your reliance on a Gallup poll (because polls have been so reliable this season) doesn't seem touchy, but your petulant manner of slinging names (monkeys, zealots, Oh!bamanic, etc.) and generalizations certainly does. You talk like the same fractious, tired politicians that have kept the system functioning the way it has for decades.

I sent a quick letter to the Edwards campaign asking him to support Obama. Don't know if this will make any difference, but it can't hurt:

http://www.johnedwards.com/about/contact/form/

Get out the vote in Wisconsin on Tuesday!

Hey Everybody;
First in the interest of full disclosure I am an Obama supporter.
What I want to remind everyone is how critically important it is to put a Democrat in the White House in 2009. While I agree that Obama has a better chance in the general election and will have much larger coat tails than Clinton, if she wins this thing fair and square, we all have to re-group and get behind here 100%.
What is at grave risk is the next half century of the U.S. Supreme Court. If we do not place a Democrat in the White House we are going to be taken 50 years backward socially and farther into Brave New World politically than anyone can imagine.
So please, everyone, stay civil. We are all on the same side here.
Also I have a personal request-stop bashing Edwards. He is an honorable man and he helped push both Barack and Hillary to the left. He may even be sitting this out as discussed today to be a neutral arbiter should that become necessary at the Convention along with Al Gore and others.

The Clinton campaign has already announced that they are in this through the convention. Their strategy is threefold: (1) hang in there and keep Obama's plurality as small as possible going into Denver, (2)challenging the DNC to seat the MI/FL delegates, and (3) getting enough of the superdelegates to put them over.

Strategy (2) is partly accomplished already. Harold Ickes who is on the Credentials Committee that decided that the MI/FL primaries would be null and void, has now declared that as a Clinton adviser, he will fight to seat the MI/FL delegates. How he can simultaneously be on the credentials committee deciding on this issue while being a Clinton adviser I have no idea, but it looks like conflict of interest to me.

Strategy (3) was already in place before the primaries began. The Clintons managed to line up a lot of committed support even before the primary started, and they have been working hard ever since. If you can believe their press releases, they are absolutely convinced they can do this. It is not secret, they have actually announced that they will win with the superdelegates factored in.

As far as throwing the nomination to the candidate who comes in with fewer committed delegates, they are totally comfortable with that. Indeed that is their strategy. This is one reason why Hillary is not breaking a leg or spending millions trying to win in Wisconsin on Tuesday.

Now, does the reality correspond with the plan? What the Clinton team has been pretty silent on is the fact that there is already a movement within the superdelegates away from Clinton, Rep. Lewis being one example of someone who is wobbling on the issue right now. The question is whether if Obama does very well now through Mar. 4, the movement of supers away from Clinton will reach a groundswell.

That's why we need to keep busting our asses. This is the moment of truth. Only overwhelming wins for Obama over the next three weeks will keep McCain out of the White House.

tpm_doctor - I responded to you below, but the new-and-improved TPM site didn't record my comment as a thread. Just wanted to say that I agree with you wholeheartedly.

I sent a quick letter to the Edwards campaign asking him to support Clinton. Don't know if this will make a difference, but it can't hurt. Actually I have sent several letters to the Edwards campaign.

Get out the vote in Wisconsin for Hillary on Teusday!

On name-calling as part of presenting one's views, my opinion is that when people do not have the confidence of their facts, evidence, or logic, or are moved mostly by emotion and prejudice, they inevitably resort to name calling as a substitute for serious communication. So knowing this, it is a good check on one's own habits. If you see yourself beginning to resort to name-calling in writing your post, it is because you are not really relying on your brains to do the hard work of thinking.

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I think that all of Edwards supporters have pretty much moved on by now. The only way Edwards is of value to Clinton and Obama is by not endorsing their opponent. An Edwards endorsement at this late date is unlikely to translate into that many voters that haven't already committed. I am disappointed that John did not come out for Obama when it could have really helped. I can't see that he has that much in common with Clinton. A Clinton endorsement would signal to me that he traded his support for favor and not principal.

John Edwards did not stand with Obama on his health plan. He did not stand with him on free trade policy. He did not stand with him on his vote on the ceiling for credit card interest. He did not stand with him on voting present 130 times in the Illinois Senate. John Edwards had his own platform, not agreeing with either candidate on all matters. To say that he is selling out if he were to endorse Clinton is simply not correct.

Maybe you can explain that crap to your readers some time soon. How many employees do you have Josh? Yourself and 3 hamsters? You

I've been thinking the same thing. TPM always seems to be hiring interns, yet the site grinds to a halt every weekend. With the staff that TPM has, how is it possible that lone bloggers sitting at home in their bathrobes are more prolific? Plus, the TPM "blog" is a group effort. Confusing.

I doubt Edwards will endorse at this point.

Everyone's looking at the same pledged delegate math. Yes, Clinton can mount a possible comeback with wins in Wisconsin/Hawaii and big wins in Ohio and Texas. But it's not all that likely that she'll get the kinds of margins she needs even if she does win them all, as even her own campaign concedes.

So I'd expect Edwards will join the ranks of big-name, unaffiliated Dems who can end this sometime between March 4 and April 22 (or, if Clinton does surprisingly well, between April 22 and June 7.) Gore, Pelosi, Biden, Richardson, Edwards -- maybe even Carter -- they'll put their foot down if and when the math gets too lousy for either candidate...and well before the convention.

That way Edwards retains his party poobah stature, without having to bet on either candidate. Since he seems to be genuinely torn (or he'd have already endorsed), this would make the most sense.

That being said, speaking as an Edwards voter in 2004 and an Obama voter in 2008, the fact that Edwards is seemingly still torn at this point encourages me to put some stock in Sen. Feingold's assessment of the man.

At this point, he may be wanting to play "elder statesman" along with Gore, Pelosi, etc. I mean really, how great for him to have placed a distant third in the primary process, yet have Gore calling him up to discuss the state of the party?

I also agree with others here who've said that Edwards is acting a bit too full of himself at this point. Someone leaked the story that Obama has not been as "attentive" to them as the Clintons. Yes, well, perhaps that's because the election is not about Edwards.

At any rate, I'd welcome an Edwards endorsement and will be disappointed if it goes to Clinton. He can make a difference at the margins. But at the end of the day, as I've said the whole time, Obama has to win this on his own -- on his own and with the help of his many thousands of supporters.

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Early on, I sent money to the Edwards campaign, but I became increasingly disillusioned. Edwards talked the talk, but his talk was quite different than anything he'd ever done in the Senate. At first I attributed that to the fact that he had been a Senator from a conservative state, but why did he vote for the odious bankruptcy "reform" bill which did untold damage to poor people? He had more apologies to make for his record than pride in it. I hope that he helps Obama, but his playing hard to get confirms my suspicion that my earlier belief in him was misplaced.

Worker Bee: I'm embarrassed for you. What's more, I'll bet you're actually hurting the Hillary campaign with your dim comments.

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Jeff - workerbee claims she's not for Hillary. Hmmmm...... That means.....

Endorsements are overrated anyway. Remember when Al Gore sealed the deal for Howard Dean in '04 or how Kennedy, Kerry and Patrick delivered Mass. for Obama this year?

I'd be happy to see Edwards endorse Obama but I doubt it really changes the dynamics of the race much other than maybe a little bit of raised visibility for a single news cycle.

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Yeah, but whalt, doesn't the endorsee get Edwards's delegates? Or how does that work?

Chill out . Let some more voting take place, at least TX and Ohio.
( Can you imagine if some of these posters were elected delegates? That is why we need adults like Pelosi, Gore, and Edwards -- and John Lewis at the convention?)

I agree completely.

I canvassed in WI this weekend and made unchangeable travel plans for OH in the days leading up to the primary there, taking the time off work. This is it. If you're a supporter, at a minimum you can make calls from your home in the evenings. It's much easier than you imagine and it makes all the difference in the world -- half the battle is simply reminding supporters to get out and vote, even telling them the times and looking up their polling locations. Plus, when they hear a real person speaking to them, telling them that it's close and that their support is important, I do believe it makes a difference in turnout.

I figure if I can make the difference with even 10 people, and a few thousand others are doing the same thing, that could be the difference in the election.

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ROFLMAO.

Goodnight, Kids. Time to turn the computers off, don't you all have school in the morning?

But I do have one question: why is it that you feign such knee-jerking umbrage at anyone that doesn't think like you do? Are you THAT insecure? That is truly sad. If you can't handle me pointing out that the race isn't over yet, or that Edward gave O! most of his policy ideas, I shudder to think at how you'll react to the real campaign against McCain. Not well, or with any grace as far as I can tell.

It's apparent that the collective "you" are not here to exchange ideas, or talk politics. You are here to backslap and feel part of a clique. How utterly droll and sophomoric. I don't think you'll really be of much use to anyone, especially your er, leader.

Well, I wish your candidate luck. I do really "feel sorry" for him. Nothing I've seen here recommends his ideas, or his "peeps."
Just the same ol same ol politics of destroying anyone that doesn't walk in jackbooted lockstep with you by distorting the truth, refusing to look at any facts that do not agree with your rather narrow worldview...pretty much acting like the GOP freepers you claim to oppose. Isn't that "funny?"

Hile Oh!bama!

The race isn't over. Happy workerbee?

Bickering about who came up with the progressive idea "first" is a waste. Obama has been a leader of progressive ideals for years, as have the other candidates. At the end of the day, it's not the lack of ideas, it's the lack of political will. It's the lack of a political mandate. Up to now, as Obama says, "Washington has been the place where good ideas go to die."

Obama is far from perfect, but maybe -- just maybe -- he is the progressive that can actually get some of things we want accomplished DONE.

I didn't realize Obama had been anything for years, except maybe a candidate. But you know him better than I do, so I'll take your word for it.

Yeah, I know it's tough to learn about the other candidates when you're worried about your candidate "breaking out" of the older white female, low-education (and low-information) voter demographic, but still. There is lots of information on all the candidates available your fingertips. Try it sometime.

Shorter version:

Don't you all have school in the morning you insecure and utterly droll sophomoric "peeps."

jackbooted lockstep! Hile!

I don't have school. President's Day. Oddly enough, I think workerbee may be someone who actually has something at stake in this election. Anyway, where's the harm? How could anyone in the blogosphere be undecided at this point. Hell, most of us have voted already!

Hile? OK, workerbee has to be a joke. There's no way a person that stupid could figure out how to use a computer.

I've been regularly impressed by TPM's ability to stay fairly impartial in all this campaign coverage. But this seems kind of silly now.

Hillary meets with Edwards, and there is no story, it just passes in the night ... expected and unreported. Obama has a meeting schedule with Edwards, there's a conflict, and its immediately granted front page status on TPM with a giant HMM ... and then when the meeting occurs its titled as 'Kissing the Ring' ?? With commentary added that makes it seems as though Obama is courting a king, hoping to get in his favor.

Come on Kurtz ... lets get real, its a candidate meeting in which, just like Hillary's meeting, I'm sure many topics, strategies and issues were discussed, and obviously the denouement would be the endorsement.

Maybe TPM is not monolithic. Maybe they all have their own opinions, slants, selective perceptions. Like us.

It sounds like the powers that be are putting pressure on Democrats with influence to remain neutral in order to broker a virtual tie.

I would prefer that they all come out and support Obama, but I have no influence.

I believe that the 2004 general election ( and the manner in which Bush won) sorta radicalized Mr. Edwards. I think that that event was why he became the fire-breathing populist that we saw starting in Iowa, 2006.

I don't question Mr. Edwards sincerity, neccesarily, but I do think that he could sometimes be too clever by half, slick even, and sometimes veered into disingenousness with some of his performances at the debates.

I would like to see Mr. Edwards endorse Senator Obama. However, I also suspect that the train has left the station, and that he blew his chance to really be relevant by hemming and hawwing about it. Plus, I don't feel exactly warm and fuzzy about the idea of his summoning Senators Clinton and Obama to his manse to basically kiss his ring. That rather demeans them both. What, has Mr. Edwards run out of miles?

But, let's suppose that he endorses Senator Clinton. Let's suppose, too, that she is successful in stealing the nomination from Senator Obama. Let's note all of the paid "commenters" who post to these various blogs, pretending to be citizen-voters while the spread the campaigns' daily talking points. And, let's note that she and Senator McCain (good friends that they are) are basically using one another's talking points in their attacks against Senator Obama. I've not been one to beleive that "the system" is stacked against the people, but...

Nader looks more like a Wise Man every day.

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Hopefully Edwards will not endorse anyone.

The man who should have been the party's nominee, the only candidate who was truly transformative, should give a speech at the convention urging party unity AFTER the party's nominee is selected.

A plea for unity is the best use of Edwards' and for that matter Gore's standing within the party.

Obama supporters who insist that Edwards endorse their candidate are demonstrating that they are seeking anything but reconciliation and want victory at any cost.

You had me until your last paragraph. More Obama-bashing. It's tiresome.

I don't honestly care whether Edwards endorses Obama or Clinton or No One -- although I suspect he'll endorse No One. After all, he is being treated with more respect by the press and the Dem party elders (and his opponents!) now than when he was in the race. Ironic, no?

For the record, I am actually expecting that neither Gore nor Edwards make an endorsement, and I think that may work in the favor of all involved ... allowing for the campaigns to basically have to stand on their own merits.

Each endorsement in and of themselves, seems to mean very little ... but Gore and Edwards, having been the presumptive winners of the 2000 election in many a mind of a democrat, have much more national pull. Having the both of them just stay silent in this is actually a powerful mesage in an of itself.

They seem to be stepping aside and saying, hey people of america ... you handle this.

Quite a thread, but haven't you guys figured out that "WorkerBee" is a Republican troll? He's making like the 4th monkey (the smirking one).

Think about it ... bad enough that you have to suck it up and vote for McCain, but at least he has the one good quality of polling so well against Hillary. And at least Hillary's easy to hate. Obama is the Republicans' worst nightmare - with the potential to break out of the 50.2 - 49.8 red state/blue state gridlock we've been in and sweep into office with huge coattails ... and the ability to LEAD. No wonder the worker bees are in such a tizzy.

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You're an addle-pated lout.

I'm an Edwards supporter, and was making calls for MoveOn whist you were drooling in your diapers.

I'll tell you who the Repub trolls are, they are the freepers like you and a rather large group of jackbooted dittoheads that come around here calling for Clinton to step down and shouting for the death of a REAL democratic primary, because you just can't wait to tear Obama down, just as easily as you helped build him up. Like this didn't happen in 2000 and 2004. Not everyone has the attention span of a mosquito, you know.

It's easy to "hate" Hillary Clinton, if you are a Republican, sure. For all the bile wending it's insidious way around here, you'll never forgive the Clintons for being competent administrators, something Republicans couldn't do with a sizable majority AND the presidency AND a "friendly" supreme court.

No wonder you're so hateful. Nature might abhor a vacuum, but ignorant, childish, dickheads like you can't live without one.

I've had it with you morons. I think I'll just "do the right thing" for my Country and write Edwards in in November.

Lights out, kids.

LOL

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No wonder you're so hateful. Nature might abhor a vacuum, but ignorant, childish, dickheads like you can't live without one. I've had it with you morons.

I'm confused about who is hateful.

LOL

I picture maniacal laughter.

Bye, workerbee.

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Oh my, how pithy.

Bye, dittohead.

Watch out for that blowback, it can be vicious.

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cal1942, why do you think Edwards was the "only candidate who was truly transformative"? He talked about poverty a lot, but what did he do when he was in the Senate - voted for a bankruptcy reform act that was devastating to people who had been bankrupted by medical catastrophes, etc. He voted for the war. His environmental record was abysmal. He voted for the Patriot Act. Hardly transformative. I rewarded his 2007 rhetoric by supporting him, but did so with a degree of skepticism. I would really question whether he's the only candidate who is "transformative". Whatever Democrat can get elected and lead the Congress to enact policies such as health care reform, etc. (and repeal some of the miserable mistakes it has made during the Bush, and yes, Clinton, years, will be "transformative". I believe that candidate is now Obama, but if Hill can do it, I'm all for it. (And no, jabari, Nader is hardly a wise man. Thanks, Nader, for Bush.)

To be "transformative" requires not only the desire but the ability to transform.

I am more interested in Richardson. He would be a great VP with Obama. An Edwards campaigning for Obama would be great, too, especially if it's Elizabeth! But John would be a good AG.

>Just the same ol same ol politics of destroying anyone that doesn't walk in jackbooted lockstep with you by distorting the truth, refusing to look at any facts that do not agree with your rather narrow worldview...pretty much acting like the GOP freepers you claim to oppose. Isn't that "funny?" Hile Oh!bama!

The irony contained in this paragraph is somewhat staggering to behold.

Anyway, back on Earth, I have long puzzled over Edwards' political conversion. We were for him this election, while recognizing that he was talking a talk he had not walked in the Senate, as Dee Dee said. But I'm interested in the idea that 2004 radicalized him.

I don't know if the endorsement has too much weight, except for the delegate math and the media coverage--if he endorses Clinton it could be seen as a sign things are on the upswing for her, Obama another "blow" to Clinton. And part of me would like him to endorse Obama (Cal, I don't give Edwards the same standing as you, so I don't see it as "victory at any cost." To me, that man is Gore--with Bill off the reservation, John Kerry having endorsed Obama and just generally being John Kerry.) Part of me also would like him to remain neutral, for whatever his reasons, his politics have changed and I would like his voice in the Clinton or Obama administration.

Hillary was going to transform our healthcare system in 1992 and it wound up being the way it is now.

It's far from a lock, but Obama has the potential to the imagination of the country and win in a landslide - and turn his oratory gifts to championing specific pieces of legisation.

Hillary would either win by a small margin or lose, or, with her divisive strategy, she might win the presidency with reverse coattails, bringing out enough anti-Clinton Republicans to turn key conressional races.

My question for all of you is: what is so much better about Hillary than Obama that makes it worth leaving all his strengths on the table? His great polling numbers, his non-devisive approach and persona, and his mighty oratory skills? Why take a chance on losing when you've got a shot at a POLITICALLY transformative victory?

IOW: It could be 45%/46%. Elementary poll reading. Not even community college levels needed, Einstein.

You Obamaniacs are certainly proving that you are extraordinarily uninformed, as the conventional wisdom goes...

News flash to workerbee: The candidacy isn't being decided by some poll.

As for the other name calling, patronizing comments, and flamebait talking points, it reflects pretty poorly on your level of discourse.

You've been good for a chuckle. Don't let the door hit you on the way out.

Edwards as a Bobby Kennedyesque, take-no-prisoners AG would be ideal

Guys - WorkerBee is a right wing troll.

Yeah, either that or the 16 year old kid next door.

> Obama has the potential to the imagination of the country and win in a landslide - and turn his oratory gifts to championing specific pieces of legisation.

No, no, Timba, it's BAD that he has oratory gifts and that he's inspiring. We don't want a candidate who can capture the imagination of the party, we want one who doesn't inspire any passion in people. Because that's the last thing we want in the leader of our country--the ability to inspire.

And as for Edwards as AG--word.

Gosh, but it's so nice to see us all get along so well.

Isn't it?

I blame soccer and Bush. In that order.

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If Senator Clinton loses Texas, Ohio or Pennsylvania, she will concede. The only way she can lose any of those states is for Senator Obama to break out of his Black, upper class liberal, student demographic....
Posted by Billy Glad
February 17, 2008 11:48 PM

Which is what he did in VA, MD and DC last week.

So, your point again was...

None of those count anymore. Didn't you get the memo from Penn?

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If you'd read for comprehension, dude, you would have seen I wasn't a Clinton supporter.

Pardon me if your intellectual skills are less than impressive....

Dude!

LOL
Posted by workerbee
February 17, 2008 9:45 PM

MikeMo, er, dude!!!

Ned-dude was wrong. Ned -dude was also being an aggressive prick by suggesting that Hillary should bow out. That's called poor sportsmanship, son, I mean, dude....

Posted by workerbee
February 17, 2008 10:34 PM

Thanks for demonstrating just how nasty and totally out of touch with reality Obamaites are.

You don't have to post here...'dude...' like, ya know?

and don't let the door hit your dumb ass on the way out.
Posted by workerbee
February 17, 2008 9:48 PM

I think workerbee's posts pretty much speak for themselves. Which makes the following all the more precious:

And, like, you ...might want to work on that condescending attitude thing. It kinda sorta makes you appear to be up waaaay past your bedtime.

Posted by workerbee
February 17, 2008 9:04 PM | Reply | Permalink

All in the same thread, no less -- this one.

workerbee needs to report to the hive for an attitude adjustment, methinks. Certainly workerbee is in no position to be lecturing anyone else on attitude.

Dude!!! LOL111!!!1 OMG1111!!!!1

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Missed one blockquote.

The above post should have read, in part:

I think workerbee's posts pretty much speak for themselves. Which makes the following all the more precious:

And, like, you ...might want to work on that condescending attitude thing. It kinda sorta makes you appear to be up waaaay past your bedtime.

Posted by workerbee
February 17, 2008 9:04 PM | Reply | Permalink

All in the same thread... [etc]

Wow. I'm a frequent reader of this site because I find it quite analytical and fairly unbiased... However the comments here demonstrate the rift that is already occurring in the party for absolutely no reason. I hope that when we get to the convention the biggest issue we are ironing out isn't whether to take one candidate over the other, but how to make it less likely in the future that a clear nominee isn't chosen well before the convention. Party disunity is in the end more damaging to our hopes of taking back the White House and staving off another Justice Scalia than whether the weaker of two candidates is chosen. McCain has been getting a nice head start here while we continue to bicker. One way or another, we need to hope this primary finds a way to wrap up within the next month, or you might as well take 1% away from our candidate in the general for each month it drags on.

Don't worry, it's just the Internet. People don't always say what they mean. Don't take it too seriously. :)

What's with all of the name-calling?
Seriously! Are we back in grade school?
Who you support is immaterial if your post is based on name-calling your opponents supporters. All it does is show your complete lack of imagination as well as your inability to communicate in a meaningful way.
As a window to our political climate, this thread tells me we have a LONG way to go before we can actually achieve anything!
Have a good night ladies and gents.

My question for all of you is: what is so much better about Hillary than Obama that makes it worth leaving all his strengths on the table? His great polling numbers, his non-devisive approach and persona, and his mighty oratory skills?
------------------------------------------------

Not much. I'll hold my nose and vote for who ever wins the nomination. But since you asked.

I don't believe the polling numbers when the repugs have not even started their attack machine. And Obama has a lot that hasn't got a bit of media play. This has been one of the nicest primaries I've ever seen.

Not only don't I believe in his non-divisive approach will work I don't like it. The problem I see in Washington is not enough bitter partisanship. Democrats knuckling under without a fight. Every gain the progressives have made has come after a bitter fight. FDR was hated by the right, he still is. Civil rights for blacks came after fights in the streets with dogs and fire hoses turned on the protesters. Obama and his supporters are naive if they believe any progress will be made without bitter partisanship.

I'm simply unmoved by his oratorical skills. I'm old enough to have seen JFK, Bobby, and MLK. Back before there were teleprompters. When they inspired they also said something. They inspired while talking about issues, not just empty platitudes about change. After I've watched a speech by Obama I'm left feeling empty. I don't know what the hell he stands for.

I don't usually watch speeches anymore. I read transcripts. But I've been watching a lot of Obama's since people have been talking about what a great speech maker he is. Here's something I found by JFK after a quick search on youtube.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zkryNyxlubY

I haven't seen anything that even remotely compares to this by Obama. And I remember dozens of great speeches like this snippet of JFK.


Workerbee, I am an Obama supporter and not a facist, and I'm not "sputtering" anything. I believe whole heartedly that Obama is the right candidate for the job. Yes you are right, it is a democracy, so let's let the people decide who they want in office. The people are enthusiastic and inspired by Barack Obama--that cannot be denied at this point.

Barack Obama deserves our respect. He is a decent, compassionate person with the best interest of the American people at heart. If you LISTEN to what he says you will hear loud and clear how much he cares about the state of this country and how he wants to provide solutions to the issues we face, including tax relief, healthcare for everyone and addressing the disaster that Bill Clinton **knew about and did nothing about** known as global warming.

This is a movement, you can feel it and it's amazing. I am a young person and I have never been inspired to be politically active until now, because Barack Obama makes it all seem real, worthwhile and just. These are good causes we are fighting for. We can restore peace and equilibrium to this nation. Let's rally together and not against one another to make this dream a reality!

oceankat said: Not only don't I believe in his non-divisive approach will work I don't like it. The problem I see in Washington is not enough bitter partisanship.

Hahaha! Thank god someone besides me thinks this!

WHO in their right mind wants to cooperate with Republicans? Haven't Democrats done enough cooperating to last for several generations now? It happened to be the perversity of "bipartisanship" that permitted preemptive war and the current quagmire in Iraq, which the next president will inherit. Ironically, Obama preaches bipartisan gospel while criticizing Clinton (Hillary and Bill both) for exercising it.

oceankat, you might enjoy this video where Mike Gravel talks about gridlock in Congress and how Lyndon Johnson got stuff done "not by reaching across the aisle and holding hands; Lyndon Johnson got things done by reaching across the aisle and cracking heads!"

Stealing the election? Seriously?

Sorry, gharlane, you're wrong. Obama's demographics in VA, DC, and MD were roughly the same as they were for his other primary wins:

Unfortunately, the exit polls in Virginia and Maryland do not provide much of a clue about whether momentum is coming into play. Obama's best groups are heavily represented in both states—and the exit polls do not really dig deep enough into voter demography to offer a clear answer as to whether Clinton is hemorrhaging parts of her core constituency. For instance, the exit poll shows Obama winning white men in Virginia by 14% and Clinton winning white women by 9%. The white gender gap remains, but it favors Clinton less. In Maryland, the story is the same. White men break more heavily to Obama than they have in the past; white women break less heavily to Clinton. Is this simply a function of wealthy voters, male and female alike, going for Obama? Amazingly, 39% of Virginia Democrats and 41% of Maryland Democrats reported incomes of $100,000 or more—this plays to a major strength of Obama.

If income was a factor in the white vote breaking for Obama in VA and MD, then he's unlikely to win as handily in some of the upcoming primaries.

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Hmm. Interesting, but ultimately inconclusive.

Corn and Stein (at MoJo) report that

Within all the Democratic constituencies Clinton relies upon, Obama not only made gains, but won. He won among voters making less than $50,000 a year. He beat her among those with no college degrees. He won Latinos. He won Catholics. He won white men by a substantial margin. And Obama triumphed in every part of that state: urban, suburban and rural. Of the subdivided demographic groups, only white women stood with Clinton tonight. The rest of her base—at least in these states—collapsed.

Cost (at RCP), meanwhile, reports that "39% of Virginia Democrats and 41% of Maryland Democrats reported incomes of $100,000 or more - this plays to a major strength of Obama." But this does not actually contradict what Corn and Stein report.

Presumably, both pieces are based on exit polling data. Neither piece cites the actual polls or provides raw data, so we are left with conclusions made by the respective authors. If Corn and Stein are right that O won among voters making less than $50K, it does suggest a shift. Now, those voters could well be predominantly African American, since there is a wide income disparity between whites and blacks. So perhaps the real question is whether O made significant inroads in MD, VA and DC with whites who make under $50K. And neither article answers that question.

What you were wrong in saying upthread, gharlane, is that Obama (conclusively) broke out of his black, upperclass liberal, student demographic. No, it's not conclusive.

Yet in the article you cite (erroneously titled "Obama Steals Clinton's Base"), David Corn and Jonathan Stein hyperbolically proclaim (without substantiating):

[Clinton] was losing another clump of post-Super Tuesday primaries by large margins . . . because her base voters were abandoning her.

Obama won the Potomac Primaries by eating into Clinton's core.

The rest of her base—at least in these states—collapsed.

The test of whether Obama is stealing Clinton's base is yet to come. But Corn and Stein do not impress with their overcaffeinated analysis. Numbers are not their forte.

NB: Reinstating ital tags above for the Corn/Stein quotes:

Obama won the Potomac Primaries by eating into Clinton's core.

The rest of her base—at least in these states—collapsed.

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Okay, blow, what about now?

Dasmeer and PaulieGooner: What you're reading here is people who have duped by a clever troll. Workerbee is a fruitcake from one of the wingnut blogs who's snuck in here for a few laughs. I keep trying to point that out but my comments must be invisible.

Oceankat: That's an exquisite example of my initial reaction to Obama the orator ("You're no Jack Kennedy and you sure as hell ain't no Martin Luther King"). HOWEVER ... after quite a bit more listening, I started to get it. Obama has his own thing and you have to warm up to it. Is it better? Is it worse? I don't know, but it's what's being offered to us and it's the first time in 40 years.

Hubert Humphrey
George McGovern
Jimmy Carter
Walter Mondale
Dukakis
Clinton I
Gore
Kerry
Clinton II

Gore has come a long ways, but he still can't stand in front of a microphone and BRING IT. Edwards was my first choice, but he couldn't even put the guilty-as-sin Dick Cheney away in that debate.

Being right doesn't count for much if you can't bring it. Obama ain't no Jack Kennedy, and he ain't no MLK, but in 2008, Barack Obama is bringing it, baby, and if you don't believe it, go hear him in person. So either bring it yourself or get behind the bus and start pushing because this country can't take 4 more years of this crap.


You forgot Eugene McCarthy. I think your argument is flawed.

Surely "bringing it" doesn't apply to Republicans (RN, GHWB, BD, GWB, JM).

So how do Republicans win?

I'm old enough to have seen JFK, Bobby, and MLK. Back before there were teleprompters.

So am I. And I rolled my eyes at Bobby while I was passing out leaflets for Eugene McCarthy.

I don't usually watch speeches anymore. I read transcripts.

If you don't want to spend the next 4 years on these blogs complaining about the war in Iran, you'd be well served to close your eyes and LISTEN to those speeches. This is not some intellectual discussion we're having here. We're dealing with the moron country that RE-elected George Bush in 2004.

RE-elected George Bush.

RE-ELECTED GEORGE BUSH

It's time to stop screwing around here. The democratic party is a disaster. The Clintons are a disaster. The country is a disaster.

I think your argument is flawed.

stop thinking and start listening

Surely "bringing it" doesn't apply to Republicans (RN, GHWB, BD, GWB, JM). So how do Republicans win?

Republicans win by default when the Democrats can't bring it. The brain-trust behind the Republicans is richer, smarter, and more ruthless. They control the masses - as they have since the beginning of time - because they're pure and uncompromised in their lust for power and their complete disregard for morality, and they will always win unless you stop them.

And the only way to stop them is to bring it.

Bill Clinton only "brought it" by virtue of being compared with two of the most tongue-tied, pathetic losers the Republicans have ever gotten stuck with, and even then he had Perot turning the electoral college inside out to help him out. McCain is light-years ahead of Bush 41 and Bob Dole. You really think Hillary is gonna beat McCain? As the mayor of Carmel would say, "Are you feelin' lucky, punk?"

Eugene McCarthy ... ah yes ... Eugene McCarthy ... my childhood hero. When I was canvassing for McCarthy, I was thinking like you are now. Bobby Kennedy could bring it, but McCarthy was the real deal.

I was as sad that McCarthy lost in California that night as I was that they shot Bobby Kennedy. But in the end McCarthy couldn't even beat that pompous idiot Hubert H. Humphrey.

Was McCarthy better on the issues than RFK? Yes.

Would McCarthy have been a better president than RFK? Maybe. (Because you have to bring it AFTER you get elected too.)

Would McCarthy have beaten Nixon ... probably not.

Would RFK have beaten Nixon? Hell yes he would have beaten Nixon. Pat Brown beat Nixon! Bobby Kennedy would have mopped the floor with Richard Nixon because Bobby Kennedy could bring it. And it would have changed history.

And this is all a moot point because it's Edwards who's aspiring to be compared to Eugene McCarthy, not Hillary Clinton. She might be smarter than all of them but she can't bring it and she sold her soul to the devil a long time ago.

In the final analysis, it's about changing history. If I had it to do over again, I would pass out leaflets for Bobby Kennedy instead ... for all the good it would have done. But in 2008 there's no analogy to the choice between Kennedy and McCarthy, and the Secret Service has made a hell of a lot more progress than the rest of the government agencies.

Idealism Pragmatism

1968 2008

"We Won't Get Fooled Again" "Yes We Can"

Imagine looking back at it from 2048 if Hillary had been the nominee ... if Obama had been the nominee.

You know, timba, I can't believe you brought up the name George McGovern in an unfavorable light in comparison to Barak Obama. McGovern who was an outspoken critic of the war constantly criticizing LBJ, a fellow democrat, from the senate floor. McGovern who reached across the aisle to introduce an amendment with a republican senator calling for withdrawal of all troops from Viet Nam. Where was the inspiring leader, Obama, in the senate leading the fight against the war? Where was his vaunted ability to bring bipartisanship?

McGovern spoke at war protests. Where was Obama when Sheehan was in Crawford? Obama gave one speech before he was a senator and then shut up about it and voted in lock step with Clinton. Including his vote for the Patriot act.

Truth is McGovern at 85 years old and without the stage a senator has, has done more than Obama to fight against this war. He's spoken out against the war more often, written more articles and essays. He wrote a book deliniating a withdrawal plan over a 6 month period with ideas of ways to reduce the turbulence such a withdrawal will bring. He even called for the impeachment of Bush.

You're comparing McGovern, who introduced an amendment to withdraw all troops from Nam and said on the senate floor, "Every Senator in this chamber is partly responsible for sending 50,000 young Americans to an early grave... This chamber reeks of blood" when it was defeated, unfavorably to an empty suit like Obama? Don't make me laugh.

oceankat - You're missing the point of the 60s analogy. Why are you using McGovern to argue against Obama? The analogs to McGovern are Kucinich and Feingold. The analog to Nixon is McCain.

Hillary is most certainly not George McGovern or RFK. The closest analog to Hillary is Hubert Humphrey.

Nixon beat Humphrey.

Nixon decimated McGovern in the 3rd worst landslide in history.

I'm suggesting that RFK would have beaten Nixon and that Obama would beat McCain.

Oceankat right above told a convenient lie:

Obama gave one speech before he was a senator and then shut up about it and voted in lock step with Clinton.

Get your facts straight, you are starting to smell like a republican:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-rees/clinton-obama-and-clust_b_84811.html

Over 150 nations have signed the 1997 Mine Ban Treaty. It pains me that our great nation has not. But in the autumn of 2006, there was a chance to take a step in the right direction: Senate Amendment No. 4882, an amendment to a Pentagon appropriations bill that would have banned the use of cluster bombs in civilian areas.

Senator Obama of Illinois voted IN FAVOR of the ban.

Senator Clinton of New York voted AGAINST the ban.

No she can't!

you might enjoy this video where Mike Gravel talks about gridlock in Congress and how Lyndon Johnson got stuff done "not by reaching across the aisle and holding hands; Lyndon Johnson got things done by reaching across the aisle and cracking heads!"
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yeah, great video. But what are ya gonna do? We've Obama, Clinton, McCain, or possibly Nader and voting for Nader is a vote for McCain. Can't do that. I rue the day TV was invented. We're a nation entertaining itself into a stupor.

Oceankat right above told a convenient lie:

Obama gave one speech before he was a senator and then shut up about it and voted in lock step with Clinton.

Get your facts straight, you are starting to smell like a republican:
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Get real, there's a few dozen bills that Obama and Clinton have voted differently on. On some I agree with Obama, some with Clinton. But when it comes to halting the war there's no difference. And comparing either of them to McGovern is a joke.

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Waste of time. Obama should be campaigning and meeting voters, not meeting with a has been. Edwards has no weight anymore. His endorsement might, and I emphasize might, have meant something before 2/5. His voters have already broke for obama or clinton and his union support has broken already as well. Now its meaningless.

Actually, elizabeth's would probably carry more weight than edwards at this juncture. And I don't mean that in a bad weigh. People really relate to her, probably more than him.

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Oh brother, way not weigh. Ugh, too early in the morning.

Please tell me Michael why Obama would be so stupid and incompetent as to waste an entire day meeting with that big fat has been?
Do you suppose that Obama is dumb enough to believe he knows better than we do how to run his campaign?
After all, Obama's decisions so far sure do call his judgement into question don't you think? What a loser!

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What is with some of you people? Where did I say that he was stupid and incompetent for meeting with him? I said it was a waste of time. Where did it waste a whole day of campaigning? I am guessing that it was midday, for several hours.

As to why it's a waste of time, I pointed out in the original post that you apparently didn't read that edwards voters have by and large split up already and the union support has already made its decision. If edwards wanted to have an impact, he should have endorsed before 2/5. Now it's probably too late.

I also am not sure that he has this profound impact that you perceive concerning lower and middle income voters. He didn't do that well while he was in the campaign in those demographics, notwithstanding his rhetoric. Speaking of rhetoric, his senate record is 180 degrees in opposition to his rhetoric. In my book actions speak louder than words, and his actions in the senate by and large were pathetic.

Just my opinions and obviously you have yours.

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Wow, some of these comments remind me of Monty Python and the Holy Grail: "...your mother was a hamster, and your father smelt of elderberries! ... Now go away, or I shall taunt you a second time!"

It's so nice that we can all have a civil discussion. Anyway...

I'm skeptical of endorsements' ability to sway voters under most circumstances; I don't think Edwards' endorsement in itself will help Hillary or Barack win Wisconsin or Ohio or Texas. However, lost among all of the sniping here is the real reason (I think) that both Clinton and Obama really, really want John Edwards' endorsement. Doesn't John have 105 tasty pledged delegates who's votes he can direct? The way things are going, the "Edwards' primary" could very well be the biggest contest left outside of Texahio. And it's winner-take-all...

That's what this is really about (unless I don't get the way delegate voting works, which is most certainly possible).

I think Edwards has only 26 pledged delegates.
And I also think that those pledged delegates are free to vote for whom they wish at the convention.
Edwards endorsement will count somewhat amongst working class dems, important in Texas and Ohio and Pennsylvania.
Obviously Obama thought it worth a day off from Wisconsin.

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drw3344 said, "What I want to remind everyone is how critically important it is to put a Democrat in the White House in 2009."

sorry. I believe the most important challenge in the 2008 presidential election is ending the Bush-Clinton lock on the presidency. The nation simply cannot change and move forward if we buy into another dishonest presidency built on lies, family ties and corporate influence.

With two families controlling the White House for decades, and controlling access to presidential records, WE HAVE NO IDEA WHAT IS HAPPENING. We do know that Congressional oversight and Constitutional "checks and balances" is a joke, given the current make-up of Congress. Democrats are no different than Republicans, all are pork-driven, corporate-owned and unethical, concerned about their re-election at any cost to the nation.

What we know about Iran Contra, the Clinton abuses of FBI records, George Bush' horrendous abuses of the Constitution could be the tip of an iceberg. We just have no idea the extent of it all. And as long as the Bushes and the Clintons protect each other and dictate by executive order how Presidential records are processed, maintained and accessed, we will never know.

I am enthusiastic about Obama as a presidential candidate. I could accept McCain, if it ends the Bush-Clinton domination of our government.

I hear that Edwards is leaning Hillary which makes no sense to me. He thinks maybe Obama is not ready? What exactly prepared Edwards - exactly 6 years in elective office, which he left because he wouldn't be able to get reelected? And if he's been so angst-ridden figuring out who to support, what exactly does his endorsement say - it's not a ringing endorsement either way at this point. What's he going to say when campaigning for one of them: "I was aplit almost 50/50, but Hillary/Barack was just a wee bit better"? I just don't get it. It seems to me his stature is enhanced by staying out. At this point, if he endorses, he will have half the Democratic party hating him.

I agree with Obama that words do matter. They do matter as long as it is yours, not if they are copied, just to create a persona that you are not. Do not make the mistake, we made in 2000 and 2004. Do not follow the hype.

I agree with Obama that words do matter. They do matter as long as it is yours, not if they are copied, just to create a persona that you are not. Do not make the mistake, we made in 2000 and 2004. Do not follow the hype.

Well just look at the trends if you look at the poll charts its clear Obama has been making a lot of ground and Hillary has been staying flat. Now that the two lines have crossed lets see if it keeps going up or levels off. Depending how Tue and March 4th go this thing could finally be over soon, that said though that much time in politics is a lifetime.

I am a baby boomer that dropped out after Bobby was murdered. 3 years later I traveled in Europe for a year where I met with constant disdain from the European left toward the manner in which many of us on the left in the US had done that.

I remember how filled with hope we were that we were going to change the world-bring peace, end racism solve poverty. And now when I look at the mess our country is in I am ashamed-even though I do not feel responsible for Bush and his ilk.

I just read Posted by michellemybelle
February 18, 2008 3:12 AM -

It is a few comments above and her enthusiasm makes my heart sing. It is part of the reason I support Obama. Whatever else he is, he is also the first candidate since the night Bobby was murdered to turn on the young people.

While Hillary would be light years better than Bush-IF she can get elected, I do not think she will make fundamental changes. And Obama may not be able to do that either. But there is a CHANCE that he might-and I think its time for us Boomers to stand aside and see if today's young people can accomplish what we failed to do.

I have been waiting for a candidate who could turn on our youth for years-because I can still feel the incredible hope I felt-and I have faith in the power of that kind of belief. The facts provide little evidence that we Boomers have done a better job than our parents did.

I for one think it's time to let the next generation have their shot. After all-they are the one's who will be left with the repercussions of our failures!

The only problem with stepping aside and leaving it to the koskids is that we all, worldwide, must live with the consequences.
Now if you think and can argue that Obama will make a better president, if only because of his rhetoric, well more power.
But "give the kids a chance" is hardly a reason.
And as to Bobby, don't get me started!
The Kennedys were a disaster. Talk about dynastic politics!
Thanks to the murders the Kennedy family has rewritten history so that Eisenhower gets blamed for their failures and Jack gets credit for LBJ's civil rights accomplishments.
But lets recite the Kennedy successes, shall we?
Bay of Pigs.
Escalation in Viet Nam.
Assassination and attempted assassinations of foreign leaders.
The Cuban Missile Crisis.
The fraudulent "missile gap" which was deployed to counter Eisenhower's warnings of the military industrial complex.
Just a few of Jack and Bobby's greatest hits.
Which is why I wince when I hear the comparisons between JFK and Obama being drawn.

This is not to say that JFK didn't inspire. He gave good talk.
It is to say that he accomplished little and much of that very bad.
I consider Obama a big roll of the dice; not my preferred bet today.

People who think Obama is just an empty suit are making a mistake. To say that he has no substance because he talks well is a non sequitor: logically the one does not necessarily follow the other.

The mere fact that he has taken on two of the most powerful political personalities in the country and fought them to a virtual tie (so far) proves that he cannot be ignored. He is a force to be reckoned with.

The first important political barrier he broke in his young life was to be elected president of the Harvard Law Review, coincidentally, the first black to do that. Neither Bill nor Hillary, both lawyers, can claim a similar distinction at the same age. I don't want to speculate on what Bill was doing in his spare time at Yale Law School.

For a small glimpse of the man's range of concerns, please go read this article about Samantha Power, one of Obama's foreign policy advisers. I know Hillary supporters among you probably won't bother, but the Obama supporters will find that their faith in Obama as the real goods may be pleasantly surprised. Enjoy.

http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2008/02/18/samantha_power/


No, you are absolutely right that Obama's ability to inspire through rhetoric does not make him an empty suit, not by any means. Obama has solid ideas and a solid resume.
My difficulty is that Obama's game plan, should he become president, is awfully airy fairy.
It is all well and good to call oneself a uniter not a divider, that he can reach across the aisle to change the culture of DC.
But who was the last guy who sold us that bill of goods?
Obama sets off my bs meter big time but then I'm way too much the cynic.
It certainly appears that Obama is going to be given the chance to prove all his doubters wrong.
God help us!

Every presidential candidate comes with a whole bunch of questions and negatives. Many said George Washington could not govern an infant nation because he only had military experience. Seems like he did pretty well. I am not equating Obama with Washington. I am saying that given two candidates for the same office, it comes down to picking the one with the most positives and the least negatives, if that is possible.

When I compare Obama and Clinton, my view is that Clinton's negatives are insurmountable in this campaign, plus her positives are not that great. And need I mention that having Bill around is a huge negative for Hillary? If Clinton were a senator who had absolutely no connection to a person named Bill Clinton, she would be a competent but very ordinary senator. Compare her to other Dem senators like Leahy, Kennedy, Biden, Boxer, Feingold, Dodd, and so on. She pales by comparison. Remove Bill Clinton from her resume and you have a very ordinary, though very smart politician.

Now Obama's resume is light, we all know, and he has his own baggage (though being a newcomer he has less than the Clintons). But he does offer the one thing that Clinton cannot, or if she can, she has not been able to articulate it, and that is the chance of effecting transformative change after eight years of Bush.

Put another way, we need a Bush antidote, like, real bad. And Hillary is not a very good Bush antidote at all. And we can begin with the vote for war with Iraq.

So I agree with you, Obama is a roll of the dice. But so is Clinton, no question. I for one am willing to roll with Obama.

And boy do I hope that you win that bet 'cause I think it's fairly clear who the next prez will be.

Obama had to cancel his trip to Wisconsin because the snowstorm made the airports inaccessible, not because he thought meeting Edwards was more important.

I do agree with the sentiment though, that it should have been Edwards visiting the other two, who had campaigning schedules to meet. But we all know that Edwards is a very vain person, not that there is anything wrong with that. So are Obama and Hillary vain, in different ways. All politicians are vain. It is the nature of the beast.

Obama is probably more interested in keeping good relations with Edwards's and his supporters supporters than actually getting an endorsement, because the latter would have to involve some kind of quid pro quo. So to a real extent going to visit Edwards is political symbolism, and the same thing for Hillary.

For Edwards, the value of his endorsement is like milk sitting in the refrigerator: the longer you don't use it the staler it gets.

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Nobody said McGovern was and is not a great man. But he lost to Nixon by 23+ points while winning only one state in the electoral college.

Party One-
I am not wild about Clinton either, but I suggest you google "Unitary Exexcutive" and then analyze what will happen if we get another Scalia, Alito or Roberts on the Supreme Court.

The ONLY way McCain can get elected is to promise the Christian Right with a Right Wing Justice. Stevens will be 89 when the next President takes office. He cannot last 8 more years-so we have the closest thing to a guaranteed opening on the Supreme Court that could exist.

If we get ONE more young Justice, we will never get over the perils of Bush-Cheney. That will all but ensure decades more of a Right Wing Court. A fifth vote favoring the Unitary Executive will codify a President above the law.

We will see every social program that we have fought all our lives to forward, reversed and turned on its head. (Read the dissent in any number of critical social issues cases, and you will see that Scalia et.al. are waiting for the opportunity to reverse-right to choose, gay rights, the list goes on.)

There is NO doubt than any Republican President at this time will place such Justices on the High Court because that is what that party now means. I hope that we do not have to see that my prediction is accurate, but if McCain wins, remember you were warned.

JTHB:
You are right-and from one persepctive the whole system is so corrupted that it needs to be scrapped! I was ready for a total revolution by the time I graduated from college-but I know that is never going to happen.

The option to what you vilify in the Kennedy's no longer exists. There are no Republican Eisenhowers around now. They have becomethe Party of Wingnuts!

At least there is some chance that a political leader who believes in the good fight will do something good for the people and peace.

The Republican Party has been completley co-opted by the Military Inductrial Complex. The Dems are not saviors-but we can either take a chance for change-or go with a party that will keep us in a perpetual state of war. (e.g.,Iraq for a hundred years!)

I don't buy that HRC can't whoop ass on the McCain nor that Obama can give a bigger whoopin.
On the few issues on which they have substantial policy differences I tend to prefer HRC's positions.
Plus I just don't swoon at Obama's dulcet tones.
I hear hucksterism, of a high order, but hucksterism nonetheless.
"We are who we have been waiting for!"
Christ on a cracker! If we are who we have been waiting for we might have had the courtesy to call ahead and say that we would be a couple wars too late.

I went to the Austin precinct captain training on a rainy, raw Saturday morning. They could not get people into Barack's HQ fast enough. People were practically fighting to get in. I talked with a friend in Dallas last night who said pretty much the same thing is going on there. The HRC events are mostly attended by folks who mostly seem to be going through the motions. The excitement is definitely on Obama's side.

timba asks: You really think Hillary is gonna beat McCain?

Yes.

Especially using your theory. As you say, just listen to McCain. He loses his place on the teleprompter constantly.


Especially using your theory. As you say, just listen to McCain. He loses his place on the teleprompter constantly.

You're forgetting the most important part of my theory: Republicans don't have to bring it. Did you see drw3344's post on the Supreme Court?

That argument trumps everything else.

I'm not saying Hillary can't beat McCain - I'm saying we can't afford to take that chance.

Besides which ... what about the risk/reward ratio? What is it that you think is so much better about Hillary that makes it worth taking on her electability risk?

And even if we could guarantee that the democrat would win, how can you possibly think that Hillary would have as good a chance as Obama of building enough of a consensus to get anything accomplished?


I am not wild about Clinton either, but I suggest you google "Unitary Exexcutive" and then analyze what will happen if we get another Scalia, Alito or Roberts on the Supreme Court.
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While I lean towards Clinton I agree with you. IMO the process of elimination has left us with the two least qualified candidates to choose from. But the SCOTUS is too important. A democrat has to win this year.

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Agreed -- with everything, except that between the two, I lean towards Obama. Both, however, were toward the bottom of my Favorites list in the Democratic field. The process of elimination, aided and abetted by MSM coverage (and lack thereof), has systematically weeded out the more qualified candidates (you want experience? Check Richardson's resume, or Dodd's).

Between the two who are left standing, I lean towards Obama for four (or so) reasons.

1) I think he is more electable. The data supporting this conclusion include the very large number of independents voting for Obama over Clinton in open primaries/caucuses, in state after state. There is at least anecdotal evidence that Republicans have also crossed over to vote for Obama -- and not because they are fifth columnists looking to nominate the less-electable Democrat, unless they are lying when they talk to reporters about how Obama inspired them. By contrast, Clinton both fails to inspire independents and actively raises the ire of Republicans, and of the two Democratic candidates, is far more likely to bring out the Republican base to vote against her.

The response from the Clintonistas -- including those on this board who claim to not be Clintonistas but somehow find themselves parroting Clinton memes -- has been to rant and foam and gnash their rhetorical teeth about the "cult of Obama". As Sarah Baxter reports in the Sunday Times:

...Clinton’s camp has been circulating stories criticising the “cult” of Obama in the hope of portraying “Obamania” as a mass delusion. Media Matters, a watchdog organisation sympathetic to Clinton, compiled a report headlined, “Media figures call Obama supporters’ behaviour ‘creepy’, compare them to Hare Krishna and Charles Manson followers”....

Rather than compliment Obama and his campaign for swinging independents into the Democratic camp, rather than applaud the number of first-time voters coming out for Obama, rather than applaud the percentage of Obama's fundraising that comes from small donors, they simply trot out the "Obama cult" meme and garnish it with the "Obama's followers are all rich, or they're just self-indulgent college students" meme. Way to build the party, folks.

As others have pointed out, the dangers of Yet Another Republican in the WH come 2009, especially with respect to Supreme Court appointments, is just too great to gamble on. Ultimately, unfortunately, we gamble ("roll the dice", in Bill's rhetoric) with either candidate. I just think Obama is the safer of the two bets.

2) If you can entertain the thought that what the Obama campaign is generating might not be a cult but actually a movement, especially if properly nurtured, then that movement can either (1) support Obama's stated goals of "changing Washington politics" if O is telling the truth, or (2) force him to do so, if he's simply spouting campaign rhetoric. The movement could also force him to do some head-cracking in the LBJ mold (didn't someone mention this up-thread? or was it in a different thread?) and actually roll back some of the depredations on working people and the middle class enacted during the Reagan, Bush, -- and yes, CLINTON -- years. Obama also has a history as a community organizer, and I hope (and believe to some extent) that he will be more amenable to grassroots pressure -- indeed, may even desire it.

Thom Hartmann on Air America Radio has observed that FDR was not elected as a strong, progressive, New Deal Democrat -- he was pressured into advocating those policies from below. Hartmann's metaphor is that the people started a parade, and then the political leaders did what they always do -- they got out in front of it, because they had to. It might be possible to do that with Clinton as well -- even, perhaps, likely -- but I believe it would be easier with Obama, for reasons stated above, as well as those I will detail below.

3) Clinton is just too corporate, and has far too long a record of supporting, and being supported by, corporate interests, including receiving the most money of any candidate from the military-industrial complex -- more money, in fact, than the rest of the Democratic field combined, and more than 60% of the Republican field combined. This does not bode well for her policies in office. Obama is certainly not clean in this regard, particularly his ties to coal and the nuclear power industry. Clinton has to contend with the record of Clinton I, which was not exactly pro-labor and which, even if she opposed it privately, did not oppose publicly and would have trouble repudiating now. Obama is in a better position to make needed structural changes. This is not to say that he will do it, especially without pressure, but his candidacy's sparking of a "movement for change" (however much you think that's a platitude), and his history of community organizing, noted above, means that there is a better chance for those changes taking place in an Obama administration being pressured by grassroots progressives than in a Clinton administration. If independents and even some Republicans climb on board, the hard-right Republicans will have a harder time opposing these moves. Clinton will engender more opposition, just on a personal level, whether or not you or I think that's fair.

4) Clinton's militaristic rhetoric, her Rovian fear-mongering in the campaign (using the same against Obama), and her execrable votes on war with Iraq and Iran (including the 2002 AUMF and the 2007 Kyl-Lieberman Amendment) make her untenable as a Democratic candidate, and severely inhibit her ability to differentiate herself from John McCain. She has refused to even acknowledge that either vote was a bad one. And it's not as if she would have been the lone Democrat casting dissenting votes on those issues. She could have joined Senators Akaka, Bingaman, Boxer, Byrd, Conrad, Corzine, Dayton, Durbin, Feingold, Graham, Inouye, Kennedy, Leahy, Levin, Mikulski, Murray, Reed, Sarbanes, Stabenow, Wellstone and Wyden, plus Chafee (R) and Jeffords (I) in voting no on the AUMF. She could have joined Senators Biden, Bingaman, Boxer, Brown, Byrd, Cantwell, Dodd, Feingold, Harkin, Inouye, Kennedy, Kerry, Klobuchar, Leahy, Lincoln, McCaskill, Tester, Webb and Wyden, plus Hagel (R) and Sanders (I) in voting no on Kyl-Lieberman. Yes, Obama supported continued funding for the occupation once he was in the Senate, which I oppose. That's still not as bad a vote as authorizing the adventure in the first place. Clinton's Kyl-Lieberman vote proves that she did not learn her lesson on the AUMF vote: that you cannot give this President any room at all to wage war, because given the slightest pretext, he will do it. The only things that stopped him on Iran were the disclosure of the NIE and some evidence of a revolt within the military against initiating that war.

So I don't lean so much toward Obama as against Clinton, and neither were my favorites. Richardson was up there, as was Edwards (which may have been a mistake on my part -- we'll see how he handles the endorsement question, among others); I liked Dodd, especially once he took stands for the Constitution (although he voted yes on the AUMF). All had better resumes than either Obama or Clinton. But they're gone now, so I have to choose between who's left, and hope, and pray, and work.

Barack MUST win Wisconsin, hopefully with a 10 point spread, for many reasons:

WI is a same day registration open primary, he campaigned relentlessly, introduced his anti-NAFTA populist theme and attended several beefy Q & A town hall meetings. It will be hard to explain a defeat following those dynamics.

Clinton attack machine is on fourth gear (I'd say it will hit fifth and the final gear in OH and TX) - and a win in WI will be a mock on their negative tactics.

WI results can change a few things, especially if Hillary wins- and Barack wins it will be a strong precursor to his future showings- especially TX.

It'll be freezing cold in WI on primary day-- with wind chills below zero. Something to think about.

I have to say, while Hillary campaign and her management have been appalling at best- from financials to message, judgment to calculations- I admire her personal grit and determination. While hardly graceful and professional- Hillary is one tough nut to crack, even her tears are made out of steel. He is a street fighter- I admit as a Obama supporter.

A word on Edwards- While I like him and would love to seem hin as AG- he, as on many previous occasions, is indecisive and kind of a drama queen. I think it reflects poorly on him to be so slow and uncourageous- demanding candidates to pay visits to his shrine in vain. If he really wants a deal for himself- he better make up his mind. Few more days, and he is out of the equation.

He is no Al Gore.

If weather is going to be a big factor tomorrow, the geriatrics set are going to think twice before going out to vote. In some cases they may not even be able to without a ride. This is a big part of Hillary's base, esp. women.

timba,

Regarding I'm not saying Hillary can't beat McCain - I'm saying we can't afford to take that chance.

As a New Year's resolution, I've given up being convinced by Republican talking points. The "Hillary can't win the GE" meme originates from the neocon chatterers, of course. I'm not accusing you of being in that crowd, but I am on a modest mission to expunge right-wing talking points from the discussion with other Democrats, at the very least.

I agree wholeheartedly with your ultimate goal of getting a Dem in the WH, no matter who it is. For many reasons, however, I just don't agree that Obama is the one who can make it. But I do think Clinton can.

One of Hillary's biggest electability advantages over Obama against McCain is her Senate Armed Services Committe time and relationships, as well as being the junior senator from NY State, the perpetual symbolic home of 9/11. Obama sucks wind on foreign policy (read: homeland security) experience. In a direct comparison on the issue of homeland security (as in a debate, let's say, between McCain and Obama), voters will find Obama seriously lacking.

Regarding And even if we could guarantee that the democrat would win, how can you possibly think that Hillary would have as good a chance as Obama of building enough of a consensus to get anything accomplished?

I think it because Clinton has had more "work horse" time in the Senate to prove herself than Obama does. She has experienced public failure and public humiliation. No doubt she has learned from it. She has survived inordinate amounts of harsh criticism. Regardless, she has beat the odds. Plus, she's smart.

I have no doubt she can build consensus to get things done.

What you're forgetting is that Republicans actively hate McCain. What you're also forgetting is the number of Republicans in Congress who are retiring this year. The Republican Party is in a shambles at the moment. Of course, they'll likely get their shit together before the Dems do.

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"She has experienced public failure and public humiliation. No doubt she has learned from it."

I note the phrasing of this statement is just an assumption on your part. I keep wondering where the evidence is that in fact she HAS learned something.

Her health care plan in the 90s failed largely because of her arrogance and mismanagement--keeping the process secret, dissing Congressional Dems who had an interest in the issue, etc. And her conduct of this campaign has not shown me anything to make me think that she has changed her methods.

DancingBear said: Her health care plan in the 90s failed largely because of her arrogance and mismanagement--keeping the process secret, dissing Congressional Dems who had an interest in the issue, etc.

Republican talking points: "her arrogance and mismanagement" + "keeping the process secret" + "dissing Congress . . ."

Thanks for breaking a sweat to make an informed contribution.

But regardless, so what if she is arrogant?

btw, Obama is as much of a hawk as Bush.

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