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Obama Closing The Gap Among Super-Delegates
The Associated Press reports that Barack Obama has picked up 25 super-delegate votes in the two and a half weeks since his narrow Super Tuesday win, a sign that those in the party establishment are lining up behind the candidate expected to win the pledged-delegate vote.
Only 60 supers are now separating them by the AP's count, and Hillary has even lost a net two since Super Tuesday. It's the kind of news that should calm any fears — or dash any hopes, as the case may be — about super-delegates deciding the nomination over the popular will.
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Good news!
February 22, 2008 4:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
It kind of seems like Clinton is fighting a three-front war now:
1. She needs to keep her superdelegate lead in the face of concerns about superdelegates overriding electoral results.
2. She needs to get Florida AND Michigan seated at the convention.
3. She needs to win the Texas AND Ohio primaries.
...and she has to win on all three fronts. Just winning on two of the three points above would probably not be enough.
February 22, 2008 4:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why do you bring this up? Everyone knows that thew superdelegates are so yesterday. It's the Automatic Delegates that all the kids are talking about these days.
February 22, 2008 4:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good to hear. Superdelegates overruling the popular vote by bypassing the most beloved Democratic politician among young voters since Bobby Kennedy would have set this part back an entire generation.
February 22, 2008 4:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Super Delegates were always a red herring put out there to maintian the air of "front runner" status for the Clinton campaign. Anybody who remembers 2004 will remember that Dean held the Super Delegate lead going into the race, but that quickly amounted to zero super delegates when it became clear Dean was not winning.
Obama was smart biding his time as an underdog, even though he held the lead in pledged delegates since Iowa. Since people actually started voting, Obama has never lost the lead in pledged delegates. Me maintained it after New Hampshire because Hillary and Barack tied in the number of delegates there. He extedned it from a one delegate lead to a two delegate lead after Nevada, taking one momre dlegate than Hillary even though she won the popular vote.
Since South Carolina, his lead in pledged delegates has increased dramatically every day there primaries an/or caucuses were held.
February 22, 2008 4:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wait. I'm confused. I thought he already won.
February 22, 2008 4:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Who cares about super delegates. How many automatic delegates does he have?
February 22, 2008 4:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Her various firewalls seem to be made of paper.
February 22, 2008 4:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
The theme of Hillary needing debates so she could regain her front-runner status seems to have died after last night's debate.
Just sayin'....
February 22, 2008 4:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
What, you didn't think getting booed was a good look for her?
February 22, 2008 6:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
I really want someone to put together a video mash of hillary and her surrogates talking about superdelegates with scenes from the Incredibles about how not everyone can be super.
February 22, 2008 4:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Super, my delegate just got hard!
February 22, 2008 5:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Who cares about superdelegates or 'automatic' delegates? HRC's real strength is her overwhelming lead in anti-plaigarists -- they will most definitely put her over the top in the end.
February 22, 2008 5:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
New poll in North Carolina:
Obama 45
Clinton 31
http://www.newsobserver.com/news/story/959521.html
This would be Obama's biggest lead in NC polling so far. (last two polls had 4 and 10 point margins favoring Obama). http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/polltracker/ncpres_d/
No way Clinton will win in NC.
February 22, 2008 5:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
North Carolina doesn't count. There are too many voters there.
Not too many black voters.
Not too many educated voters.
Not too many latte-sipping, Prius-driving voters.
Just too many voters.
So it doesn't count.
But in a bit of good news, I hear she has a commanding lead in the Atlantic Ocean and Pacific Ocean Primaries, as well as in the Gulf of Mexico and the Great Lakes. Either of those seem like suitable places for the wreckage of a sunken candidacy...
February 22, 2008 6:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Interesting.
It would be fascinating to see how, if at all, the SD equation changes after TX and OH? I mean, if Senator Clinton wins by a 5-10 point margin.
I'm sure unlike someone else we know- Obama camp are NOT investing their hopes on SDs.
Supers are hanging onto the momentum pendulum. Whichever way it swings- they're always on the right side.
February 22, 2008 5:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is this really a surprise?
Did anyone really expect the Super-Auto Delegates to pick the losing candidate?
February 22, 2008 5:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
seems as good a place as any to give this some visibility:
http://www.riograndeguardian.com/rggnews_story.asp?story_no=18
Story from the Rio Grande Guardian reporting that a state rep who is an organizing guy for Clinton was seen at an Obama rally.
Worth a click to check out, but here are some key quotes:
“First of all my son, Aaron Peña III, is working for the Obama campaign. Second, I am here with my family to see history being made,” Peña said.
“I think last night’s debate in Austin was a turning point in this campaign. I think it will become increasingly evident very soon who is going to win this primary. While Barack Obama may not win the popular vote in Texas, the passion of his organization has an advantage in winning the important caucus delegates.”
Asked if he had now flipped over to Obama, Peña said: “I will maintain my commitment but it appears to me that the decision will be made by the public on March 4. I made a commitment to Hillary Clinton and I must maintain it. I gave my word. However, as an observer, it appears to be increasingly evident who is going to win.”
February 22, 2008 5:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
You mean aside from Mark Penn?
February 22, 2008 5:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Interesting news, but it's all so yesterday. There are only 11 days left to the Alamo, Hillary's last stand. The only question remaining is whether she will choose to make her concession speech on Tuesday evening or Wednesday morning.
Everything you'll see from the Clinton campaign until then is mere window dressing. She's going to keep up the appearances of a fight. She needs to. But the Obama ground organizations in both states, combined with perhaps a 4 or 5-to-1 difference in television advertizing expenditures will overwhelm her non-existant campaign.
Patrick
February 22, 2008 5:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Senator Clinton doesn't do concession speeches anymore. That's why she got run off the airwaves last week. You don't disrespect the Obama.
February 22, 2008 6:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
B-But wait a minute. Superdelegates are nasty and undemocratic and remnants of the Clinton regime-- oh, no, they're friends of Democracy if they vote against her. Sorry. Forgot to memorize my catechism answers for today.
February 22, 2008 6:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Um, the story is about her lead in super delegates being cut to 60, not any lead for him....yet. The supers are friends of democracy if they don't usurp voters (I believe that's been the catechism answer all along). Good to see more of them backing the folks contributing to record turn-outs rather than the entrenched old guard of the party.
February 22, 2008 7:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Hillbots are growing increasingly desperate.
If you can't understand the difference between superdelegates -- oh, sorry, "Automatic Delegates" voting for a candidate who already has a majority of pledged delegates as a result of, you know, the public voting for them, and superdelegates handing the nomination to a candidate who has a minority of pledged delegates as a result of, you know, the public voting for the other candidate, then no amount of fact or logic is going to help you.
Take that back to Mark Penn, please, and let us know what his return memo says, 'K?
February 24, 2008 3:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, I think the problem is, Obama people pimping those advocates for the-- No, that's just with daughters.
February 22, 2008 7:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nice punt, but I would have gone with your deep concern over the disenfranchised voters of MI and FL.
February 22, 2008 7:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Some of you really need to apply as writers for the "Daily Show" - if you don't work there already. No, but wait, then I have to stay up late to get my daily dose of political snark. Please forget I mentioned it!
February 22, 2008 8:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
did anyone notice the polls on the right
VT - O +26
RI - C +12
apparently they are 2 different states! I always thought they were 2 names for the same place. Like what they do with WA and DC, one label goes on the land, the other on the sea, with a line connecting them. But if their polling varies by 38 points, it can't be the same place, right? (unless one of the polls was by ARG)
February 22, 2008 10:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
For those who say Clinton will do anything to get super delegate votes.
What do you have to say about this?
http://www.projo.com/news/content/CICILLINE_BARRED_02-22-08_FS93UHE_v8.38dfb05.html
February 23, 2008 4:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
Just as claims that Clinton had 'x' number of superdelegates 'locked up' 3 weeks ago was meaningless, so claims of Obama 'picking them up' or 'picking them off' are equally meaningless. Things are trending Obama's way and superdelegates will fall in line with that trend. Except if things go the other way. In which case the super delegates will too.
The superdelegates had their chance to 'lead' earlier in the race when they could declare their support and actively campaigned for their preferred candidate as was their right. We either followed them or we did not and now its their turn to follow or stray at their peril
February 23, 2008 9:56 AM | Reply | Permalink