Obama Campaign Memo: If Hillary Doesn't "Wrap Up" Nomination Tomorrow, It's A Loss
The Obama camp moves to frame tomorrow's results in advance, sending out a new expectations-dampening memo from top Obama adviser David Plouffe arguing basically that anything short of "wrapping up" the nomination tomorrow constitutes something of a defeat for Hillary.
"Two weeks ago, a Clinton campaign adviser told CBS News that they believed they could `wrap up' the nomination on February 5th," Plouffe writes. "As the `inevitable' national frontrunner, tomorrow should be the day when she sews up the nomination or builds a formidable delegate lead. But because of Obama’s growing momentum across the country, the Clinton campaign is now unlikely to reach their stated goals of wrapping up the nomination tomorrow."
The memo showcases another argument emerging from Camp Obama right now: That the last few weeks have been all about wiping out the large lead Hillary has held in some states. In other words, the closeness of the contest tomorrow constitutes victory for them.
"Our path to the nomination never factored in a big day for us on February 5," Plouffe writes. "Rather, we always planned to stay close enough in the delegate count so that we could proceed to individually focus on the states in the next set of contests."
So if Hillary wins tomorrow, this is the argument we'll be hearing. Full memo after the jump.
Two weeks ago, a Clinton campaign adviser told CBS News that they believed they could “wrap up” the nomination on February 5th. As the “inevitable” national frontrunner, tomorrow should be the day when she sews up the nomination or builds a formidable delegate lead. But because of Obama’s growing momentum across the country, the Clinton campaign is now unlikely to reach their stated goals of wrapping up the nomination tomorrow.
Senator Clinton is certainly the favorite on February 5, given the huge leads she has held in many of these contests throughout the course of the campaign and the political, historical and geographic advantages she enjoys in many of these states.
For example, California, which Clinton led by 25 points in October and 12 points two weeks ago, was once seen as the Clinton campaign’s firewall and where they planned to run up an insurmountable lead in delegates. Former Governor Gray Davis, a Clinton supporter, said on MSNBC last week, “I am pleased to be for Hillary Clinton and I expect her to do very well in Super Tuesday. I expect her to win California by a sizable amount, at least double digits, do well in New York and New Jersey and Connecticut.”
Based on her huge head start, Hillary Clinton should still win California, but is unlikely to achieve her goal of getting a sizeable share of the delegates.
Our path to the nomination never factored in a big day for us on February 5. Rather, we always planned to stay close enough in the delegate count so that we could proceed to individually focus on the states in the next set of contests.
We fully expect Senator Clinton to earn more delegates on February 5th and also to win more states. If we were to be within 100 delegates on that day and win a number of states, we will have met our threshold for success and will be best positioned to win the nomination in the coming months.
A performance that exceeds those benchmarks, while unlikely, would put is in a surprisingly strong position heading into the rest of the February contests.
While the Clinton campaign is furiously trying to spin the expectations game, it is important to look at where they were in some of the key states just a few weeks ago.
ALABAMA
Less Than Two Weeks Before February 5th, Clinton Led Alabama By 15 Points. According to polling done by Rasmussen released on January 25, Clinton led Obama by 15 points, 43% to 28%. [Rasmussen, 1/25/08]
ARIZONA
Less Than Two Weeks Before February 5th, Clinton Led Arizona Obama By 21 Points. According to a poll done for the Arizona Republic that was released on January 23, Clinton led Obama 45% to 24%. [Arizona Republic, 1/23/08]
CONNECTICUT
Hartford Courant: Two Weeks Before February 5th, Clinton Led Connecticut By 14 Points. According to polling done for the Hartford Courant released on January 20, Clinton led Obama by 14 points, 41% to 27%. [Hartford Courant, 1/20/08]
DELAWARE
October 2007 Poll Found Clinton Leading Obama By 24 Points. According to polling done by Farleigh Dickinson that was released on October 10, Clinton led Obama by 24 points, 41% to 17%. [Fairleigh Dickinson, 10/10/07]
GEORGIA
In December 2007, Clinton Led Georgia By 7 Points. According to polling done by Strategic Vision released on December 12, Clinton led Obama by 7 points, 34% to 27%. [Strategic Vision, 1/22/07]
MASSACHUSETTS
Survey USA: Two Weeks Before February 5th, Clinton Led Massachusetts By 37 Points. According to polling done by Survey USA released on January 24, Clinton led Obama by 37 points, 59% to 22%. [Survey USA, 1/24/08]
MINNESOTA
October Poll Found Clinton Leading Obama By 25 Points In Minnesota. According to polling done by Mason Dixon released on October 2, Clinton led Obama 47%-33%. [Star Tribune, 10/2/07]
MISSOURI
Less Than Two Weeks Before February 5th, Clinton Led Missouri By 19 Points. According to polling done by Rasmussen released on January 25, Clinton led Obama by 19 points, 43% to 24%. [Rasmussen, 1/25/08]
NEW YORK
Before February 5th, Clinton Led New York By 28 Points. According to polling done by USA Today and Gallup released on January 28, Clinton led Obama by 28 points, 56% to 28%. [Gallup, 1/28/08]
NEW JERSEY
Less Than Two Weeks Before February 5th, Clinton Led New Jersey By 17 Points. According to polling done by Quinnipiac released on January 22, Clinton led Obama by 17 points, 49% to 32%. [Quinnipiac, 1/23/08]
OKLAHOMA
Three Weeks Before February 5th, Clinton Led Oklahoma By 20 Points. According to polling done by Survey USA released on January 14, Clinton led Obama by 20 points, 45% to 25%. [Survey USA, 1/14/08]
TENNESSEE
Less Than One Week Before February 5th, Clinton Led Tennessee By 33 Points. According to polling done by Insider Advantage in Tennessee on January 30th, Clinton led Obama by 33 points, 59% to 26%. [Insider Advantage, 1/30/08]
Can you all tell me if you're having any success posting comments? It seems like it's touch and go.
Also, many apologies (again) for the tech issues today.
February 4, 2008 2:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Boy...this memo....or Talking points as I think you would put it if it came from camp Hillary is kind of strange. Greg, you should write something on this one. Kinda break this one down for us. This one has got to have a deeper meaning to it. Are they spinning a loss, are they lowering the bar? Greg, man you have got to get on this one.
February 4, 2008 2:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
comments seem to work for me
February 4, 2008 2:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just a thought: if you're looking for feedback on how the comments are (or aren't) working, you might get better results by posting an email address.
The problem is that comments aren't posting properly, so naturally the ones who are having problems are exactly the ones who you aren't hearing from.
February 4, 2008 2:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
comments are good ?
February 4, 2008 2:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Can you hear me in the back? :)
February 4, 2008 2:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good effort at playing the expectations game. And, beyond the spin, the Obama campaign is right. If they come within a 100 or so delegates tomorrow, it is a huge deal considering how far down they were to start the run toward Super Tuesday.
February 4, 2008 2:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm having trouble. Of course this may not post due to that!
Yes, touch and go!
February 4, 2008 2:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Can you hear me in the back? :)
February 4, 2008 3:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
One of my comments did not appear in Gitlin's most recent entry. I guess we will see if this one shows up. Error message below....
Internal Server Error
The server encountered an internal error or misconfiguration and was unable to complete your request.
Please contact the server administrator, domains@stinson.com.au and inform them of the time the error occurred, and anything you might have done that may have caused the error.
More information about this error may be available in the server error log.
February 4, 2008 3:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just a test.
By the way...did you see my complaint the other day...about the posts taking very long to show up?
February 4, 2008 3:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Apologies! I should have looked before posting. Thanks for the reply earlier.
(This is now the second attempt top send this one)
February 4, 2008 3:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
According to the very latest Gallup poll, Hillary has picked up a point nationwide...it's not what you'd call momentum....but then, maybe all of these celebrity endorsement for Obama are actually turning the average American off. It's just a thought.
February 4, 2008 3:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Apologies! I should have looked before posting. Thanks for the reply earlier.
(This is now the second third attempt top send this one
February 4, 2008 3:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't mean to be difficult, but frankly, who cares what a paid adviser thinks about Tuesday's results? Isn't this a little inane?
I think anybody engaged in this process for the past few months would agree that short of a huge upset tomorrow, this thing is going to continue for a little while longer.
Isn't it odd to act as though victory for your opponent is somehow also a victory for you? That is an illogical expectations game if I've ever heard one.
greenpieceblog.blogspot.com
February 4, 2008 3:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
I can see the logic here... Super Tuesday was supposed to be the domain of the "presumptive nominee", the candidate with the better national recognition, etc.
If Obama survives, he will have an advantage when there's only a couple states a week. Wherever he goes on the ground, the polls tick up for Obama - it's not a coincidence. He's simply the better campaigner.
If he can stay within the 50-75 delegate-or-so mark, I'd put his chances for the nom at 50-50, at worst. If he equals (or somehow betters) Hillary's delegate count - I'd put his chances at better than 50-50.
February 4, 2008 3:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Third time lucky?
February 4, 2008 3:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Al Gore watch: http://ruralvotes.com/thefield/?p=443
I figured The Endorsement would have a causal link to a strong Super Tuesday performance, but I figured Al would be doing the causing, not Obama. My fingers are crossed...
February 4, 2008 4:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
If this comment doesn't show up, it was brilliant. Otherwise, pedestrian as usual.
I think Obama's campaign is managing its expectations well. Hillary probably will come out on top to some degree in super Tuesday primaries.
February 4, 2008 4:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Pace yourself Hillary! It is a going to be a long campaign year, and at this rate, you are going to run out of nose hairs to pull.
February 4, 2008 4:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
w00t!
But considering this post has been up all afternoon and only has 9 comments instead of 309, I think you have a few problems with the upgrade Greg. Bonne chance!
February 4, 2008 5:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wanted to comment on the Michelle Obama GMA story, but "comments" links to a "not found."
I linked to her comments earlier somewhere else, maybe politico, and I saw that people at Talk Left are getting apoplectic over her statements. Admittedly, I'm pro-Obama, but I found her comments frank. How refreshing.
- She's got young children, I wouldn't expect her to work nearly as hard on the trail for anybody but Barack.
- The Clintons have made her angry and she's not over it yet, so what?
- Clinton and Obama may be close on policy, but you going with Hillary is not Change as Michelle means it, it's back to the '90s in style, tone of partisanship, etc. It's time to turn the page.
Keep keeping it real, Michelle.
February 4, 2008 6:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
I would think that this would be the absolute worst time to "upgrade" the system. Right before a historic election. Since the "upgrade" there have been virtually no comments. Hello, obviously there is a huge problem.
My guess is that this comment won't go through, but it kind of makes you wonder. Why do this now?
February 4, 2008 6:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
this is my first test at commenting since I was finally able to log in again with my old username
February 4, 2008 7:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
second try at commenting
February 4, 2008 7:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
(I think this is my 3rd, 4th, or 5th attempt to post here today... Oh well, life with computers!)
I guess from this Obama already realizes he is going to lose tomorrow and just like Nevada, where he lost even with a rigged caucus, he wants to declare victory. Good that he is conceding now, but what a joke, very pathetic, and it shows his 'hope' over substance. Now, I'm sure some MSM will pick up on his perspective and this might give some comfort to Obama supporters but seriously, Obama will lose tomorrow and it will be reported as a loss Wednesday morning. Further, as McCain stands to wrap up the Republican nomination tomorrow, the pressure will be on Democrats to rally around a winner, Clinton, and begin focusing on the goal of winning the presidency in the fall.
When Obama loses tomorrow, he needs to accept his loss.
February 4, 2008 8:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is about the fifth time I've tried to post on TPM-EC since the "upgrade."
Let's see if it happens.
Hi, Michael A.
Long time no spar.
February 4, 2008 8:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is about the fifth time I've tried to post on TPM-EC since the "upgrade."
Let's see if it happens.
Hi, Michael A.
Long time no spar.
February 4, 2008 8:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
"When Obama loses tomorrow, he needs to accept his loss."
Hardly a "loss" if he's come back from huge deficits everywhere to win a few and keep it close elsewhere.
I mean, I know it would be more convenient for Hillary and her supporters if this pesky upstart would know his place, but that ain't gonna happen.
If Hillary loses California tomorrow, will she accept it? I doubt it.
February 4, 2008 8:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have been having problems with this site since December 3, 2007 when I first registered. I have never been able to post comments until today. I still can't change my password. I have to use a computer generated password which is a bunch of gibberish.
February 4, 2008 9:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Hardly a "loss" if he's come back from huge deficits everywhere to win a few and keep it close elsewhere."
A loss is a loss. If you score five runs in the 9th to get within a run but still lose, that's still a loss.
People forget that Obama has also been the favorite at a juncture in this campaign. He has made a great recent comeback, but that only followed Hillary's comeback, which itself followed Obama's first comeback. Its been an up and down, back and forth affair and tomorrow we will see where things stand.
David Plouffe saying that it would be a win if they stayed within 100 pledged delegates is ridiculous because it covers something like 90% of possible outcomes at this point.
February 4, 2008 10:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Whew! I can finally log in with a real password. Thanks to the powers that be.
February 4, 2008 10:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Question to old-school commenters: has Matthew Weaver ever actually articulated his precise motivation for standing so smug-ugly behind his candidate of choice? As a quasi-lurker, all I've seen is prose that would make a Hillary spambot blush and that faint whiff of desperation.
February 5, 2008 12:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
The Obama memo just makes sense.
The first thing I did was check RealClearPolitics that show all the old polls to see if they picked outliers to make it look like they came from a bigger deficit than they did.
But for most states there were other polls from the same time periods that could have been used to show they came from even further back. For some they named the only polls.
For "spin" this was very honest. Good job.
If they come even close it is a victory for them, I've been making the same argument. They already have ground games, ads and events set up for the later states and Obama always gains in states he can spend time in.
The gains made in so many Super Tuesday states are nothing short of amazing. Most journalists are aware of that too. I heard people like Abrams saying it's not fair if Hillary does win if the press spin it as some win for Obama just because it's close. The panel pretty much said Obama coming that close really would be the big story, he wasn't expected to until the last few days when we saw the gains.
It's a good memo to have out for the over-enthusiastic expecting a big Obama win. Let them have facts on hand. Aain I am really happy they didn't exaggerate on the polls, they could have done so without it being a technical lie.
Oh, I haven't read beyond short quote on what Michelle Obama said. Yes it would be horrible coming from Bill the ex-president, de-facto party leader.
Michelle is a wife who has seen Clinton tactics used against her husband, not a party loyalist. She "shouldn't" have said it but I don't know how she could help but feel it. I've heard many people say it in stronger terms and they aren't married to Obama. Frankness is one of her charms and in this case a problem. She'll make some amends, probably by telling the truth. I think most who aren't strongly anti-Obama will understand it and she'll learn to be a little more careful as she must.
February 5, 2008 5:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
So Obama is "dampening expectations", but Hillary says the "fight won't end." Pretty selective headlines, considering both are saying the same things. I think some of you guys are wearing dueling gloves and murmuring "ah must defend mah lady's honor" as you type this stuff.
February 5, 2008 8:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
A loss is a loss. If you score five runs in the 9th to get within a run but still lose, that's still a loss.
Hmm. I don't think we've even had the 7th inning stretch yet. Hillary gets more delegates tomorrow, then she'll have the lead, but it's definitely NOT the bottom of the 9th.
February 5, 2008 8:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
Its a long long road..... States waiting in the wings to get a chance to cast their votes.
Feb 9th
Louisiana primaries
Nebraska caucuses
Washington caucuses
Feb 10th
Maine caucuses
Feb 12th
District of Columbia primaries
Maryland primaries
Virginia primaries
Feb 19th
Hawaii caucuses
Washington primaries
Wisconsin primaries
March 4th
Ohio primaries
Rhode Island primaries
Texas primaries
Vermont primaries
March 8th
Wyoming caucuses
March 11th
Mississippi primaries
April 22nd
Pennsylvania primaries
May 6th
Indiana primaries
North Carolina primaries
May 13th
West Virginia primary
May 20th
Kentucky primaries
Oregon primaries
June 3rd
Montana primary
South Dakota primaries
February 5, 2008 10:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
Its a long long road..... States waiting in the wings to get a chance to cast their votes.
Feb 9th
Louisiana primaries
Nebraska caucuses
Washington caucuses
Feb 10th
Maine caucuses
Feb 12th
District of Columbia primaries
Maryland primaries
Virginia primaries
Feb 19th
Hawaii caucuses
Washington primaries
Wisconsin primaries
March 4th
Ohio primaries
Rhode Island primaries
Texas primaries
Vermont primaries
March 8th
Wyoming caucuses
March 11th
Mississippi primaries
April 22nd
Pennsylvania primaries
May 6th
Indiana primaries
North Carolina primaries
May 13th
West Virginia primary
May 20th
Kentucky primaries
Oregon primaries
June 3rd
Montana primary
South Dakota primaries
February 5, 2008 2:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sounds like the Obama campaign internal polls are not so good. They can try and spin it but it's going to be hard.
February 5, 2008 2:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sounds like the Obama campaign internal polls are not so good. They can try and spin it but it's going to be hard.
Would you care for anything to drink, seeing as you probably need something to wash down that hat and/or crow you're eating, Moishele?
Nominating Hillary would be a bigger mistake than my voting for Nader in 2000. And I live in Michigan, kids. Enjoy your President McCain, in the event you don't wake up and smell the real world. And to think you accuse us of naive idealism!
February 12, 2008 1:26 AM | Reply | Permalink