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Obama Campaign Claims Delegate Victory

The Obama campaign released a memo laying out their official delegate tally of Feb. 5th's results this morning, claiming that they won 845 delegates to Hillary's 836, a margin of nine points.

The Obama camp's total of pledged delegates for the race thus far: Obama, 908, Hillary 884.

Obama top adviser David Plouffe's spin on the results:

“By winning a majority of delegates and a majority of the states, Barack Obama won an important Super Tuesday victory over Senator Clinton in the closest thing we have to a national primary. From Colorado and Utah in the west to Georgia and Alabama in the south to Senator Clinton’s backyard in Connecticut, Obama showed that he can win the support of Americans of every race, gender, and political party in every region of the country. That’s why he’s on track to win Democratic nomination, and that’s why he’s the best candidate to defeat John McCain in November.”

More in a bit.


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In the New Hampshire in 1992, Bill Clinton ultimately did rather poorly, but at the time the evening news closed up shop for the night, it looked like a much better finish (though still second) than it was. Consequently, "the Comeback Kid."

A smaller dynamic appears to be in place here, but unless the impression that she won gets Hillary a significant uptick in donations or a boost in the primaries scheduled over the next week, it seems much less significant.

But what really may be far more interesting is the extent that the internet in general and blogs in particular are responsible for (1) getting genuine results out there and thus (2) tamping down the false impression of victory that Hillary might otherwise be riding.

Man, what a nail biter. Are we really going to fight this through every primary? Are we really going to let super-delegates decide who the nominee will be?

At the very least, I can see some major changes occurring from the DNC level downward on how these delegate are decided.

Those, as a Minnesotan, I am SO HAPPY Obama was provided with such a large margin of delegates (+25) to offset HRC's gains in CA, NY, NJ.

So, when are party leaders going to start demanding the type of coalescing around a nominee that we see on the Democratic side? Anybody have any ideas on how this is going to play out? Backroom deals anyone?

Please limit the propaganda if you can...

Well, Minnesota was a caucus, as opposed to the primaries in NY, NJ, Mass and Cali. Clearly, the Obama has the low turnout caucus states down, as the HRC voters tend to be working folks not oriented to caucus going. This means good things for her in Ohio, Pa, Texas and Indiana, tougher going in states like Washington, despite the support of the two female Senators there.

super tuesday victory-ownage approved.

Hmmm Clinton's folks say she won, Obama's folks say they won. Yep, that sounds like a draw to me.

Also, to prarphrase...
You are the momentuum you are looking for

I love a little humor with my breakfast in the morning....HRC won on all counts last night and it's now time to unite, stop the spin and act like adults. It's time to go after the R's. If people want to stay home, clog up the convention, thats cool too, who cares, the R's are not happy with Mac they will stay home too. HRC will roll on with out you. As my dear Mom used to say one monkey does not make the show, it will go on.

Kefa, you're going to have to try a try a little harder to spin this as a win, especially in the context of your numerous posts last week predicting a decisive blowout. telling people to "act like adults" and pounding on the table isn't much of a plan.

Not wishing to fart in church, here's a reality check for those who wish to go beyond Obama's disingenuous spin on the delegate counts:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#D

Obama in 2016!

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This is the key link for the total count of committed delegates. All the others (as of noon ET Wed.) are counting something other than district-by-district, proportional allocations.

That said, it's also incomplete because the meaningful votes -- the delegate counts -- aren't in yet. For example, as of noon ET, only 34 delegates from California are tallied.

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Hooray! Just right of the middle of road.

It does not which these two wins, we are signing up for eight plus years of dragging a Democrat towards their own platform.

Woo-Hoo! Medio-cracy!

"Obama's disingenuous spin on the delegate counts"

Yes, it looks more and more like Clinton is counting on the anti-Democratic superdelegates to push her over the top. They're probably issuing veiled threats to all 800+ of them as we speak. Can a Brooks Brothers riot at the convention be far behind?

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Here's how I'd spin: The experienced and reasonable candidate the whole country has known well for about a month is running hard and winning support everywhere against a Dem "incumbent" of some 16 years' duration who helped to enable George Bush's cruel trillion-dollar war -- forget about economic gains in the 90s -- and, as completely incredible as it sounds, four years later gave a boost to John McCain's dream to "Bomb bomb bomb Iran."

Kefa, Colon-

Seriously, guys, come on. You've got to give me better reasons than mere assertions why HRC has this all locked up.

So, by your arguments, should BHO get a lead among super-delegates, will you then back him for the nomination? I seriously doubt it.

Last night was a draw. At least by the numbers. Isn't that quite a significant accomplishment by an insurgent candidate (Obama)? Or, are you claiming that the insurgency is actually Clinton's candidacy? A difficult thing to claim, looking at the polls (nationally) six months or six weeks ago.

As noted many times before, a statistical draw on Super Tuesday is a win for Obama. Why? Clinton has/had ALL the institutional advantages one year and one month ago.

She may still win the nomination, but it's going to be ugly. And, I'm thinking, it's going to be an ugly win if Obama gets the nomination. Of course, Obama also has all of that organization already in place, nationally. HRC has her name recognition........

Kefy, Colon- Give me real arguments and statistics.

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Again as I have posted here before the real story is that fact that the Democratic turnout far exceeds many previous national primary/caucus totals. I am not sure how much the moving up of the dates in the primary and caucus in several states have affected the overall turnout but one thing is clear and that is that most of the American people are sick and tired of the same old politics and mostly the complete detructive nature of Bush and Company. This is a tight race and neither side has a clear advantage at this point with the delegate totals being so close. But I do believe that if it does come down to the "Super" delegates that a question will have to be asked by the DNC representatives. It should go something like, "We need to ensure that whomever gets the nomination that the momentum which has been built up since 2005 leading to our huge victories in 2006 congressional races and the fact that many Congressmen and women from the Republican side have announced their future retirements, plus the fact that this national primary/caucus have shown that we can possibly take some of the Swing states as well as swing some of the Red states, who will be the best to continue this building of a coalition?" I am skeptical of using the Republican term of building a majority but I think what we really need is to see the value of progressive policies and fiscal conservatism married to one another therfore bringing reality based conclusions at the forefront of political decision making. I feel that when I talk to people down here in Texas that we are still divided on wedge issues but our concerns about the environment, addiction to oil, economy/jobs, Free-trade and health-care are much closer. To me these are the pressing issues and this is where America can rebuild itself.

Brew is right. Obama is leading in pledged delegates. Clinton's lead is based on superdelegates. Keep in mind that unlike the pledged delegates, the superdelegates are free to change their minds as often as they'd like. If one candidate starts to emerge as the consensus, there's going to be a lot of pressure on the superdelegates -- both those who have stated a preference and those who haven't -- to coalesce around that candidate.

Also, keep in mind that there's a huge swath of the Democratic establishment that resent the Clinton because of the way they've strong-armed them in the past. They're not quite so stupid as to come out on record now opposing the potential Democratic nominee. But if it looks like the wheels are coming off the Clinton express, they're going to start jumping like rats off a sinking ship.

Colonpowwow,

Disingenuous spin? Anyone paying attention knows that Clinton had more superdelegates going into Tuesday. Tell us something we don't know. She still lost Tuesday -- if delegates are the metric -- and she's probably going to lose over the next week in terms of popular vote (which her campaign is tacitly conceding). She's probably going to have to loan her campaign money, a la Romney, because her donations have rolled off the table.

The question now is, when Gore endorses Obama, how many uncommitted superdelegates is he able to take with him?

Proportional System Seems to Work

I haven't seen anyone do it, so I just went to the MSNBC site that gives the raw vote totals for each state and added them up for Obama and Clinton. Just rough estimates, rounding to the nearest thousand, and excepting Michigan, Florida and some caucus states where it looks like they are reporting local delegates elected rather than actual votes, each candidate has received about 7.6 million votes so far.

Pretty even.

Thank you angry vet. Comment threads are sort of known for their nonsense, but claiming that HRC won "on all counts", and that Barry Obama is lying about it by arriving at a different calculation than the all-knowing CNN (THEY'VE never been wrong before, right?), is a little incredible.

I was going to have to call them on that, but you beat me to it. Kudos.

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Obama's campaign is one of the most divisive I have seen despite his rhetoric. Claiming to appeal to all groups which analysis of the voting patterns simply show that he doesn't is simply dishonest.

Angry Vet says:

"Kefa, Colon-

Seriously, guys, come on. You've got to give me better reasons than mere assertions why HRC has this all locked up.

"So, by your arguments, should BHO get a lead among super-delegates, will you then back him for the nomination? I seriously doubt it."

Well, first of all, unlike the ABH crowd that relies on FoxNews to frame their political opinions on the Clinton - I've always said emphatically that I'd actively support whichever candidate my fellow Democrats choose. That's especially the case with Obama, who've I've followed closely in his US Senate race and who was always my number two choice in this race.

Second - Alabama, Georgia, Utah, Idaho, South Carolina, Alaska, North Dakota, Kansas. These are the states that provided the huge margins for Obama that have kept him close. Huge margins from tiny groups of Democratic voters (by comparison to Republican voters) - in states that the Democrats have exactly zero chance of competing in in the GE. That's where Obama's "strength" lies. In Hillary-hate country where no Democrat can win.

Also, I'm not impressed that a 20 delegate margin for Obama in Minnesota offsets a 20 delegate margin for Clinton in California. Do I really have to point out the electoral college significance in the winner-take-all GE?

Hey, but a delegate's a delegate and under the nominating rules everybody plays by, every vote counts (unless you're a super delegate voting for Hillary - then you don't count so much).

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I'm sure you fart in a church all the time colonpowwow. You're spinning like a top. It was a draw at worst for obama or could be construed a win. One week ago clinton was up by 20 points in many of the states that went obama's way, let alone he wasn't polling above 20 points six months ago. Now he is in a statistical dead heat? That would be considered a win by anyone's calculations, but I would call it a draw. To claim that she won, because of her institutional advantages in big states is silly, the same thing with claiming the super delegates. He's got the mo and we'll see where he is at on March 4, after he wraps up winning the states leading to March 4, as pretty much conceded by the clintons.

Send the clintons packing in 08.

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Momentum doesn't mean much if you don't cross the finish line first. Super Tuesday has passed and the momentum was not enough at the end of the race. I don't know about Ohio, but Hillary will take the Dem vote in here in the Texas the Primary. Obama could take Houston,Dallas, and maybe Austin, but Hillary will take San Antonio, El Paso, and South Texas. Those three cities will eat up any gains Obama might get from the Hillary haters in the Texas south plains and the Panhandle. Neither will take Texas in the General election but Hillary will stand the best chance.

I have yet to meet any Republicans who don't still beilieve that OHB is a muslim and they still can't get past his middle name.

As far as independents in Texas, We have one. His name is Ron Paul and he has an "R" after his name.

Minnesota may be a "caucus state" but the presidential voting was basically a primary that you could only vote at from 6:30 to 8:00. You stood in line, cast a ballot and took off. If you wanted to stick around, so be it, but there was no need to do so. So I'm not sure how it's really all that different than a primary.

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Michael A.

As I said earlier. Good showing by Obama in winning some key Democratic states (MO, IL, CT, MN). But Hillary clearly beat him in most of the traditional and key Democratic states up for grabs last night (NY, CA, MA, NJ) - as well as in purple states like AR, and maybe TN, . The only reason Obama is even close at all is because he won huge margins in Republican-dominated states where Dems can't and won't compete in the GE.

It's clearly anybody's race at this point and I've never said otherwise. The closest I've ever come to stating a "Clinton mandate" type of thing is "I still like her chances."

I still like her chances.

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Just a note on substance: Inevitably the H. Clinton supporters argue on the level of kids in high school supporting their candidate for homecoming queen. Is this really what we want the politics of the first serious female contender to be comprised of? The woman's running a dishonest campaign, propped up by her husband's political machine and major lobbying interests, and winning only in those places where a generation soon to pass away, or Latinos who culturally prefer strong-arm authoritarianism to egalitarian democracy, command significant segments of the vote. Republicans won't be able to run a racist campaign against blacks, since Bush has given them high ranks in his administration. But just watch what they can leverage against the candidate of the Latinos, and their illegal cousins - especially if they're running a McCain-Huckabee ticket, with its common touch, against haughty Hillary. Obama would beat them easily; Hillary, many Democrats I know are prepared to vote against, based on the low character she's demonstrated in her campaign.

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At this point, I would say that Obama has a lock on the Vice-Presidential nomination--at the very least.

If Hillary wins, she will HAVE TO pick Obama as VP (imho). It would be political suicide for her to not do so.

If Obama wins, the specter of Bill Clinton padding up and down the hallways of the West Wing in his bathrobe may cause Obama to pick Edwards, or someone else.

I'm also not sure that Hillary would accept the VP nod.

Michael A
Hey Obama whiners if u think you have somehow won with deficit of about 100 delgates, that is what happens to ur brain when you inhale crack.
You guys are so shallow, all you can do is whine and foul mouth the Clintons. Shows where u come from.
Obama can't overcome delgates deficit from the remaining staes. So now he has started BLACKMAILING superdelgates! Typical THUG from Chicago.
BLACKS voting for a BLACK Obama are not racists and Bill and others not voting for him are racists!
Thanks to Latinos and Asians in CA, Hillary and Bill are going to win.

CNN says Delegates Clinton 811, Obama 720


http://www.cnn.com/POLITICS/

ColonPowPow wrote:

"Second - Alabama, Georgia, Utah, Idaho, South Carolina, Alaska, North Dakota, Kansas. These are the states that provided the huge margins for Obama. . . . That's where Obama's "strength" lies. In Hillary-hate country where no Democrat can win."

This cuts both ways, though. I'm a HRC upporter, and don't like this argument. If we're being intellectually honest this arg really plays into Obama supporters hands. Our big delegate wins yesterday were NY, Cal, Mass, and NJ. Can I honestly make the argument that Obama can't win those states in a GE? Not with a straight face.

Obama comes back with: "Of course I can win those states -- they're always Dem states. But HRC can't win the states I can. I put more in play."

So what do I do? I focus on the fact that we were winning in overall delegates before Tuesday and are still winning today; I argue that the delegates in Florida and Michigan must count -- millions of Dems can't be silenced; and I focus on the Mass and Cali wins as evidence that despite all the star power and fluff Obama pumped down folks throats, the true working-class Dems' voices were heard.

Those are your talking points ColonPowPow run with them ;)

AP says Clinton 845 delegates to Obama’s 765.

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CNN's current numbers are:

Hillary Clinton
Pledged: 618
Superdelegates: 193
Total: 811

Barack Obama
Pledged: 614
Superdelegates: 106
Total: 720

Now, I know delegates are all that matters. I have been saying this since IA when Clinton got one less than Obama, yet he still claimed a massive victory there. But that actually brings me to my point. Obama had his most lopsided wins (outside the south) in states that held caucuses, had low turnout, and/or are so overwhelmingly republican, that I believe his appeal to the mases is greatly overstated. Sure, he won 14 states yesterday. But some had turnouts as low as 2.5% of registered voters (ID). I am not impressed with caucus victories at all. By and large, caucuses are dominated by more educated people with money and time on their hands (i.e., Obama's base and a small % of the overall population). Colorado, which had the largest caucus turnout as a % of the population yesterday still only had about 13-14%.

This is decidedly anti-democratic compared to turnouts in the mid-30s to 40s in big states with true primaries like CA, NY, and MA. In most states where people could actually vote without having their neighbors inspecting their ballots, Clinton either won handily or the race was fairly close (such as MO and CT). Notable exceptions were IL, GA, and AL—but the variables at play that made those states exceptions are pretty obvious. I have to admit (and I am no shrinking violet) that when I hang around with my "professional" friends (most of whom are in the Obama demographic and support him), I am scared to speak up for fear of being ostracized as a racist. I can only imagine the pressure in a caucus of white, elite liberals to be "politically correct." It tells us nothing about how people would actually vote n a secret ballot.

I predict a long ugly campaign to come if Obama plans to spew this kind of rhetoric. I wish he would see the writing on the wall and drop out before he has so divided the party that victory in the fall is well-nigh impossible.

FoxNews says
Hillary Clinton 845 Barack Obama 765

I truly feel posters like "CAINDP" are undercover Obama operatives. They come on here and spew racist crap to make HRC supporters look bad.

CAINDP, I know you're really an Obama supporter ... you don't have me fooled.

You're misinterpreting these counts.

These aren't final counts, they're the current counts. Each candidate will be receiving quite a few more delegates as these counts go on (for instance, basically no California delegate numbers are in), and it's pretty clear at this point that in terms of pledged delegate, Obama will likely come out from yesterday by a few delegates.

Now, in aggregate, Hillary is winning by a thin margin (approximately 100 delegates) if you include superdelegates, which I would not. Superdelegates exist essentially so that once a clear nominee from pledged delegates occur, the party leaders can all clearly get behind that candidate to show a united party.

Superdelegates are odd for a number of reasons anyway. Particularly since, like I said, they can switch loyalties at any time. Also, if a reporter talks to a superdelegate and hears that they like a certain candidate (even if they're not promising their superdelegate vote to that candidate), the media will typically count that delegate for that candidate.

The end point of all this is: in terms of pledged delegates, the count will be effectively tied.

New York Times says Clinton 845 Obama 765

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I know I have spewed my share of vitriole here, but it does not bode well for the party how much Obama and Clinton supporters really seem to hate each other. I mean many of us literally think the others are childish and stupid. Not just a reasonable difference of opinion, but true contempt. If Obama was truly a uniter, he would figure out a way to do something about this and quick. Otherwise, its really time to go now, so some healing can be done before the inevitable happens. It may turn out, ironically, that we have one of the lowest turnouts in modern history in the fall if Obama supporters refuse to vote for Hillary (or vice-versa) and conservatives refuse to vote for McCain. We even have crazy things like people on this forum (including myself on one or two occasions of frustration) intimating (or even exclaiming) that they will vote for McCain if their choice is not nominated. Conversely, we have Ann Coulter saying she will vote Dem if McCain is nominated. Could this be the birth of a new party realignment? Ha-ha.

Jordan V wrote:
". . . and it's pretty clear at this point that in terms of pledged delegate, Obama will likely come out from yesterday by a few delegates."


Given that you say "for instance, basically no California delegate numbers are in", how is it pretty clear that Obama will come out from yesterday by a few delegates?

Jordan V.wrote
"The end point of all this is: in terms of pledged delegates, the count will be effectively tied."

That may be, however, Obama's ruse is to muddy the water some as to who won the expectations game, Tuesday - important for advancement of the surge as steamroller myth.

Clearly in terms of the then current expectations, Hillary one just a bit short of spectacularly, and Obama fizzled. Funny how you don't see that headline here or anywhere else in the Clinton-hating press.

From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
With almost all of the voting in, here’s the popular vote calculation for the Democrats:

Clinton 48.97% (6,967,302)
Obama 48.04% (6,835,447)

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Has there been any movement in New Mexico for a total delegate count?

Hillary Clinton is winning among the Democratic base, people who will vote Democratic no matter who is nominated. But you can't win with just your base. To win the general election, you need to pull in Independents, part-time Democrats, and moderate, cross-over Republicans. And her negatives are just sky-high among them.

Furthermore, the Republicans are divided and dispirited right now. THEIR base, the Christian right, dislikes McCain, and they're likely to stay home on election day (and, even more likely, refuse to give money or to work hard on get-out-the-vote campaigns). But if the Democrats nominate Hillary Clinton, this will all change. The right-wing won't care who's on the Republican ticket, as long as they can work to defeat her. And this means that a low Republican turnout will become a huge Republican turnout, just because so many of them HATE Hillary Clinton. It will be a disaster for Democrats across the country, not just in the presidential race.

And finally, Barack Obama has the next generation of young Democrats all fired up. He is inspirational and seems to be determined to lead us into the future. If, instead, the Democrats timidly turn to the past, to the old-style Clinton political machine and 'politics as usual,' this will turn off a new generation of our potential leaders. Many of them will likely become discouraged and retreat into apathy, which would be a long-term disaster for the Democratic Party and for our country. Now is the time to take chances, now is the time to be bold and confident, now is the time to LEAD with Barack Obama.

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The real question is who will have a better chance against McCain? Hillary or Obama?

I think it is pretty obvious, Obama!

If Hillary wins the Dem nomination, say hello to at least 4 more years of a Republican White House and pardons for all the BushCo gang.

Are some of you so clueless as to not understand the blistering attack that Hillary will have to withstand? Did you really fall for Mann Coulter's impression of Brer Rabbit? Hell, almost half the Dems can't stand Hillary...

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More states and a razor-thin margin of more pledged delegates won for Obama. A razor thin advantage in the popular vote totals (whatever that is worth) and a big win in the number of really delegate rich states (NJ, NY, CA & MA vs IL) for Clinton. Each side has the material to spin a narrative of "victory" on the day after. Given, however, that my man was trailing badly just a week ago, I am savoring the taste of a larger haul of pledged delegates. I would have been happy if we had simply kept her advantage small, but to actually take the lead is a great triumph for Obama, in my book.

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