New WaPo Polls Show Very Tight Races In Ohio And Texas
New poll numbers from ABC and The Washington Post show that Hillary holds only a single-digit lead over Obama among Dem likely voters in Ohio, while it's a dead heat in Texas:
Ohio: Hillary 50%, Obama 43%Texas: 48%-47%
The tight numbers suggest that Obama's string of victories has given him momentum heading into these potentially decisive contests. Given Obama's growing lead in delegates, these numbers are far too tight for comfort for Hillary, who needs sizable victories in these states to turn the narrative of the race around.
The poll finds that Hillary leads in both states among her base constituencies -- white women, Latinos and seniors. She holds a sizable edge over white men in Ohio -- perhaps fueled by her support among working class voters.
Meanwhile, Obama holds a clear advantage among white men in Texas and in both states retains a sizable advantage among young and higher-income voters and a huge advantage among blacks.
Tellingly, Obama is apparently winning the argument over who's most electable in November: In both states he holds a greater than 10-point edge in that category.
Full poll here.
Tight races. Two weeks to go. Remind me if we've seen this play out in the past?
February 21, 2008 5:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
You ain't seen nothin' yet. Those previous wins were before Barack started sportin' that cowboy hat!
February 21, 2008 6:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Did she say Texas and Ohio were her firewall? She meant Puerto Rico.
February 21, 2008 5:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Makes me think that she's going to go all out in tonight's debate.
February 21, 2008 5:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
These are pretty in line with the other polls we've seen. It looks like Obama is moving closer and closer.
By the way, nice job on the McCain stuff today, Greg (and everyone else, for that matter). I don't think we'd see the same level of fairness from your counterparts on the right. You guys should have a blast covering the media reaction to this, though. Matthews and Barnacle were practically in tears on Hardball.
On the other hand, I do think that if the Times is going to go back and try to find out just how many drugs Barack Obama did in his youth, they should also remind readers that St. McCain does, in fact, have a history of fooling around.
February 21, 2008 5:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow, I asked for more TX polls and get four new ones this afternoon (and an OH poll for desert). My cup really does run over. As I said on the other thread, dead heats in TX are exactly what I was hoping to see. The news is looking better and better each day for us Obama supporters. Here's hoping that nothing terribly game changing happens tonight.
February 21, 2008 6:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Are they sitting or behind lecturns tonight?
February 21, 2008 6:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sitting in a "cozy" environment. Also, allegedly according to cnn they will be engaging more together. Sounds like the clinton campaign won this one. I wonder if the next one they are behind lecturns.
February 21, 2008 6:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thinking of the debate tonight, allow me to save Matthew Weaver a little time by saying right now that Obama looks like an angry black man in the debate.
February 21, 2008 6:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, SNAP. And another prognostication: if Obama does well and the general consensus is that he won the debate, expect Rae to call everyone sheep.
February 21, 2008 6:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Of course he is angry, but most of his anger was directed at Bush/McCain, not a Hillary. Do you want a candidate that thinks everything is peachy keen in this country? As far as his looking like a black man, of course you're looking at him through a black prism. He is also half white, as you probably know.
February 21, 2008 10:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama is probably ahead in TX because the poll didn't capture his momentum from Wisconsin. The poll was conducted from 16-20 of February, too early to capture his momentum from his Tuesday 19 victory.
February 21, 2008 6:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Somewhat interesting story on the Clinton ground operation in Texas:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mayhill-fowler/clintons-texas-ground-ga_b_87723.html
It must be because they're busy sewing up Ohio (has to be).
February 21, 2008 6:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
This campaign like the one in Virginia should help him as well, my very non-political boss in Irving told me about this and I had to look it up:
http://www.republicansforobama.org/?q=node/358
February 21, 2008 6:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Kenny Loggins--nice hair, btw--were Matthews and world's worst fraud Barnacle discussing the McCain story as though it had legs? Or were they dismissing it? My POV is that it's going to have aftershocks in terms of stories to come--lots of grist for the mill here, at least.
February 21, 2008 6:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Notwithstanding the slightly opaque composition of the NYT story, and the fact that McCain is now denying everything (something his people were not doing in the initial statement last night), I'd say the Times story has enough of a 'They've gotta have *something*' factor to keep it alive for a while, absent any further revelations.
February 21, 2008 6:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
A vote for Obama is a vote for Oprah
February 21, 2008 6:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oprah's on the ballot?
February 21, 2008 6:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's the White House not a crack house
February 21, 2008 6:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Which explains your post. Please, put down the pipe.
February 21, 2008 6:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow.
I can see Oscar Wilde at last has some serious competition in the 'bon mot' department.
February 21, 2008 6:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Btw, I was referring to the 'Crack house' jester, not you, Publicus.
February 21, 2008 6:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
it is going to be interesting to see how BO handles Hillary's attacks...this is going to be good practice for him for the GE against JM. It will also be interesting to see how she will handle any jabs from him, will she brush it off or come back and try to go for the jugular...
I am sooooo pumped.....
February 21, 2008 7:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Hillary wins on Super Tues II and gets 60% of the delegates she will only pick up -at most- 50 additional which is only 1/3 of what she needs. This is TX, OH, RI & VT put together.
February 21, 2008 8:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
So where is Mrs. Clinton's firewall now? It has been moved so many times, I've lost track.
Perhaps it should be stronger and less portable?
It seems like each time the wall gets broken down and moved, it's reassembled less structurally sound.
And I suspect the Army Corps of Engineers is somehow complicit.
This wall's only purpose now is to impede the Obama Camp's progress towards Fort McCain.
I say fire the Corps, burn down the wall, reorient Mrs. Clinton towards Little Rock, and let Mr. Obama complete the mission.
February 21, 2008 10:26 PM | Reply | Permalink